The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions - MIT Technology Review


84 bookmarks. First posted by fredcavazza 12 days ago.


We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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1 hour ago by trisignia
The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions
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19 hours ago by deejbah
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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yesterday by puzzlement
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.
yesterday by nfultz
The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions
from twitter
2 days ago by borgopio
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
from twitter
4 days ago by BenSS
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
6 days ago by nirum
Deploying new hardware, on the other hand, has significant marginal costs. We know that from our own lives. Many of the cars we are buying today, which are not self-driving, and mostly are not ­software-enabled, will probably still be on the road in the year 2040. This puts an inherent limit on how soon all our cars will be self-driving. If we build a new home today, we can expect that it might be around for over 100 years. The building I live in was built in 1904, and it is not nearly the oldest in my neighborhood.

Capital costs keep physical hardware around for a long time, even when there are high-tech aspects to it, and even when it has an existential mission.
ai  ml 
7 days ago by libbymiller
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
from instapaper
7 days ago by mjays
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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7 days ago by archizoo
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years.
getpocket 
7 days ago by linkt
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
from instapaper
8 days ago by dylan
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.
by Rodney Brooks October 6, 2017
AI  futurism 
8 days ago by zryb
Terrific Rodney Brooks essay about common sources of nonsense in current predictions for an AI future:
from twitter
8 days ago by gregab
This is a problem we all have with imagined future technology. If it is far enough away from the technology we have and understand today, then we do not know its limitations. And if it becomes indistinguishable from magic, anything one says about it is no longer falsifiable.

This is a problem I regularly encounter when trying to debate with people about whether we should fear artificial general intelligence, or AGI—the idea that we will build autonomous agents that operate much like beings in the world.
ai  ethics 
9 days ago by jomc
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
9 days ago by jkleske
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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9 days ago by domingogallardo
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.
future  artificialintelligence  technology 
9 days ago by garrettc
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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9 days ago by roolio
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.
ai  future 
9 days ago by SimonHurtz
AI has been overestimated again and again, in the 1960s, in the 1980s, and I believe again now, but its prospects for the long term are also probably being underestimated. The question is: How long is the long term? The next six errors help explain why the time scale is being grossly underestimated for the future of AI.
ai  Futurology  from twitter
9 days ago by paulbradshaw
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.
artificialintelligence  techreview  mit 
9 days ago by jorgebarba
RT : Rod Brooks trying to get the AI hype machine to simmer down a little bit:
from twitter
9 days ago by mackenab
Rodney Brooks is a former director of the Computer Science and AI lab at MIT:
<p>I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. It even had a graphic to prove the numbers.

The claims are ludicrous. (I try to maintain professional language, but sometimes …) For instance, the story appears to say that we will go from one million grounds and maintenance workers in the U.S. to only 50,000 in 10 to 20 years, because robots will take over those jobs. How many robots are currently operational in those jobs? Zero. How many realistic demonstrations have there been of robots working in this arena? Zero. Similar stories apply to all the other categories where it is suggested that we will see the end of more than 90% of jobs that currently require physical presence at some particular site.

Mistaken predictions lead to fears of things that are not going to happen, whether it’s the wide-scale destruction of jobs, the Singularity, or the advent of AI that has values different from ours and might try to destroy us. We need to push back on these mistakes. But why are people making them? I see seven common reasons.</p>


The question is whether it's a good idea to bet against this sort of change as he is doing, or whether betting on it is riskier.
ai  jobs 
10 days ago by charlesarthur
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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10 days ago by kubia
This post by is so bang on, it's unreal. The fetishisation of AI is embarrassing.
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10 days ago by selfdom
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years.
article 
10 days ago by mud
RT : Mistaken predictions about artificial intelligence lead to fears of things that are not going to happen.
AI  exponential  robotics  singularity  from twitter
11 days ago by jordanc
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
from instapaper
11 days ago by dwuziu
Very good reading
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11 days ago by adamrpah
Mistaken predictions about artificial intelligence lead to fears of things that are not going to happen. https://t.co/3VaiUapy0y

— MIT Tech Review (@techreview) October 7, 2017
Twitter  liked 
11 days ago by hochan
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
from instapaper
11 days ago by mauty
It turns out that many AI researchers and AI pundits, especially those pessimists who indulge in predictions about AI getting out of control and killing people, are similarly imagination-challenged. They ignore the fact that if we are able to eventually build such smart devices, the world will have changed significantly by then. We will not suddenly be surprised by the existence of such super-intelligences. They will evolve technologically over time, and our world will come to be populated by many other intelligences, and we will have lots of experience already. Long before there are evil super-intelligences that want to get rid of us, there will be somewhat less intelligent, less belligerent machines. Before that, there will be really grumpy machines. Before that, quite annoying machines. And before them, arrogant, unpleasant machines. We will change our world along the way, adjusting both the environment for new technologies and the new technologies themselves. I am not saying there may not be challenges. I am saying that they will not be sudden and unexpected, as many people think.
ai  research  article 
11 days ago by janpeuker
Think AI is coming soon? Think again: The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions - MIT Technology Review
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11 days ago by semrys
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
from instapaper
12 days ago by mjbrej
Some thoughts on predicting stuff about AI:
from twitter
12 days ago by richieb