petej + withdrawalagreement   444

All the Brexit you can eat | Richard Seymour on Patreon
To get a parliamentary majority, she and everyone else knows perfectly well that she must drop Tory 'red lines'. She must negotiate seriously with Labour MPs and unions, make real concessions on workers' rights, and offer serious investment to Leave-voting constituencies.

Yes, that means fucking over her own headbanger backbenchers and the DUP. Yes, it risks a schism. Yes, her parliamentary situation is precarious enough. Yes, it means giving something to Jeremy Corbyn. But consider the results of actually securing a deal. Currently, businesses are hoarding a lot of capital. In the last year, we've seen the longest downswing in business investment outside of a recession for fifteen yeas. On top of that, almost a trillion pounds in assets and investments has been withdrawn from the City in fear of a "no deal" Brexit. (They call this 'Brexodus', because of course they do.)

In the event of a deal, even May's dismal deal, all that investment comes flooding back in. Unless the inevitable recession hits before then, it means a significant bump in economic growth in an otherwise weak economy, a bonus for Treasury receipts and a chance for Philip Hammond to relax the purse strings. All that money being set aside for 'no deal' preparations could be handed out to government departments. The Tories would have delivered on an historic mission, the Remoaners would be temporarily marginalised, Labour would be weakened, and May would get quite a lot of cachet from affluent centre-ground voters for standing up to her nutters. I would expect the Conservatives to start polling in the mid-Forties if they achieved that. Given the degree of fragmentation of public opinion on Brexit, any definite resolution would likely be welcomed. That would surely weaken the hand of right-wing splitters.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  MayTheresa  politics  ERG  ToryParty  redLines  strategy  dctagged  dc:creator=SeymourRichard 
9 days ago by petej
Theresa May’s Brexit lost to the ultimate adversary: reality | Rafael Behr | Opinion | The Guardian
This has been the greatest source of frustration and shock for the rest of Europe: the spectacle of a once serious country, formerly admired for the coolness of its temperament, racing towards perilous choices while turning its face defiantly against obvious realities. That, plus the tragic irony of history creating a vacancy for visionary leadership and then filling it with May.

There is an almost perfect mismatch between the prime minister’s character and the skills she has needed. She was blunt when she should have been diplomatic; inscrutable when she needed to be candid. When imagination was required, she opted for inane repetition. When she should have reached out, she doubled down. She appeased enemies of compromise in parliament and squandered goodwill in the country.

It can be hard to disentangle the disaster Brexit might always have been from the specific mess May has made of it. There are turnings on the road to failure that she did not need to take, junctions that were missed. She did not have to embark on the article 50 route before knowing where it led. She could have drawn different red lines or changed them when they confined her to impossible choices. But while there were problems with the driver, there were also limits to how far she could get with Brexiteer maps, scrawled in crayon on the eve of the referendum with wild, higgledy lines pointing at destinations that don’t exist.

The result is that the country has been driven round in circles. The parliamentary debate on May’s deal today was a gloomier, paler version of the one that was held in January. For much of the day the Commons benches were emptier than last time. The prime minister’s exhausted voice was hoarser. The deal was rejected by a smaller margin not because it has got any better, but because fear and exhaustion are catching up with Tory MPs, overtaking their belief that something better will come along.

As for the implacables who voted against May, they were not jubilant. They inflicted a defeat, but they know also that there was no victory here for any kind of Brexit. A ruinous no deal is still technically possible, but a chain of events has been triggered that could lead to postponement or even annulment of the whole project. The prime minister’s humiliation could rebound on to every Eurosceptic fanatic who urged her ever further and faster down the road to nowhere. Brexiteers have a dangerous adversary that they cannot name. It isn’t any opposition party, or Brussels, or remainers. It is reality.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  defeat  HouseOfCommons  Parliament  backstop  Euroscepticism  MayTheresa  politics  nationalism  delusion  leadership  failure  dctagged  dc:creator=BehrRafael  intransigence 
10 days ago by petej
« earlier      
per page:    204080120160

related tags

1922Committee  accountability  advice  agency  air  alienation  amendments  anger  anti-Semitism  Article50  association  audio  austerity  AustinIan  authoritarianism  aviation  backstop  BakerSteve  banks  BarclayStephen  BarnierMichel  BarronKevin  BattenGerard  BBC  Belfast  Belgium  BennHilary  BercowJohn  bigotry  blame  BlueLabour  BolesNick  borders  BradleyKaren  BradyGraham  BravermanSuella  Brexit  bribery  BryantChris  budget  BurgonRichard  BurtAlistair  business  Cabinet  CameronDavid  CampbellAlastair  CampbellRonnie  Canada  CANZUK  CBI  centrism  change  Chequers  citizensAssembly  citizenship  CityOfLondon  CJEU  ClarkeKenneth  ClarkGreg  class  climateChange  CollinsDamian  CommonMarket2.0  competition  compromise  concessions  consensus  conservatism  constitution  constructiveAmbiguity  contempt  control  CooperRosie  CooperYvette  CorbettRichard  CorbynJeremy  CortesManuel  CoveneySimon  CoxGeoffrey  credibility  crisis  customs  customsArrangement  customsUnion  DavisDavid  dc:contributor=BastaniAaron  dc:contributor=ButlerJames  dc:contributor=CorbynJeremy  dc:contributor=DohertyAlex  dc:contributor=GalsworthyMike  dc:contributor=MasonPaul  dc:contributor=SarkarAsh  dc:contributor=WalkerMichael  dc:creator=AshTimothyGarton  dc:creator=BarnettAnthony  dc:creator=BehrRafael  dc:creator=BushStephen  dc:creator=ButlerJames  dc:creator=CampbellAlastair  dc:creator=ChakraborttyAditya  dc:creator=CorbynJeremy  dc:creator=D'AnconaMatthew  dc:creator=d'AnconaMatthew  dc:creator=DuntIan  dc:creator=FreedlandJonathan  dc:creator=GourevitchAlex  dc:creator=HarkerJoseph  dc:creator=HarrisJohn  dc:creator=JonesOwen  dc:creator=KettleMartin  dc:creator=KibasiTom  dc:creator=KuenssbergLaura  dc:creator=LidingtonDavid  dc:creator=MasonPaul  dc:creator=MillerGina  dc:creator=O'TooleFintan  dc:creator=OnwurahChi  dc:creator=PestonRobert  dc:creator=PowellJonathan  dc:creator=RuncimanDavid  dc:creator=SarkarAsh  dc:creator=SeymourRichard  dc:creator=ThornberryEmily  dc:creator=ToynbeePolly  dc:creator=YoungeGary  dctagged  decisions  DeCordovaMaria  defeat  defence  deindustrialisation  delay  delays  DelorsJacques  delusion  democracy  democratisation  Denmark  deregulation  DerSpiegel  DExEU  differentiation  disclosure  discussion  dishonesty  division  doggedness  DowningStreet  DromeyJack  DuncanSmithIain  DUP  duration  DWP  EC  ECHR  ECJ  economy  editorial  education  EEA  EFTA  election  employers  employment  England  environment  equivalence  ERG  ErskineMay  Esher  ESRC  Estonia  EU  EU27  Euro  Europe  EuropeanCommission  EuropeanParliament  Euroscepticism  Eurozone  exclusion  exploitation  extension  factions  failure  fairness  FarageNigel  farming  farRight  fear  Fidesz  finance  financialisation  fishing  FitzpatrickJim  flexibility  FlintCaroline  forecasts  FosterArlene  FoxLiam  France  Frankfurt  freedomOfMovement  freeTradeAgreement  freeTradeArea  funding  Galileo  GaukeDavid  GDP  ge2017  generalElection  Germany  Gibraltar  giletsJaunes  globalisation  GNU  GodsiffRoger  GoldsmithZac  GoodFridayAgreement  GourevitchAlex  GoveMichael  government  GraylingChris  Greece  GreeningJustine  GreenParty  GrieveDominic  Grimsby  growth  Guardian  GyimahSam  HalfonRobert  HammondPhilip  HammondStephen  HancockMatt  hardBrexit  HarmanHarriet  HarringtonRichard  health  healthcare  HepburnStephen  higherEducation  HindsDamian  history  HoeyKate  hostileEnvironment  HouseOfCommons  HouseOfLords  humiliation  humour  Hungary  HuntJeremy  immigration  impact  imperialism  implementation  incompetence  IndependentGroup  industrialStrategy  inequality  interdependency  internationalism  interview  intransigence  IPPR  Ireland  Italy  ITV  Jacobin  JamesMargot  JavidSajid  jobs  JohnsonBoris  JohnsonJo  JunckerJean-Claude  KennyEnda  KinnockStephen  KwartengKwasi  KylePeter  LabourParty  LancasterHouse  LaveryIan  leadership  LeadsomAndrea  Leave  LeDrianJean-Yves  legal  letter  LetwinOliver  LewisBrandon  LewisClive  Lexit  LiberalDemocratParty  liberalism  LidingtonDavid  LilleyPeter  LisbonTreaty  Liverpool  livingStandards  LloydTony  LoiseauNathalie  London  Long-BaileyRebecca  LRB  LucasCaroline  MaasHeiko  Maastricht  MaastrichtTreaty  MacronEmmanuel  MajorJohn  MalthouseKit  manifesto  MannJohn  manufacturing  MarrAndrew  Marxism  MasonPaul  max-fac  MayTheresa  McCluskeyLen  McDonnellJohn  McVeyEsther  meaningfulVote  media  medicine  membership  MEPs  MerkelAngela  migration  military  misinformation  MordauntPenny  MorganNicky  MPs  MundellDavid  MurrisonAndrew  NandyLisa  nationalisation  nationalism  nativism  NATO  negotiations  neoliberalism  Netherlands  Newsnight  newspapers  NFU  NHS  noConfidence  noDeal  NorthernIreland  Norway  NorwayPlus  Novara  Opimium  opposition  Parliament  passporting  PeoplesVote  PerryClaire  PestonRobert  PettiforAnn  PhillipsJess  PlanB  polarisation  politicalDeclaration  politicalParties  politics  polity  populism  Portugal  postponement  poverty  power  predictions  pregnancy  procedure  process  ProdiRomano  property  prorogation  protest  publication  RaabDominic  racism  ratification  redLines  Rees-MoggJacob  ReevesRachel  referendum  reform  refugees  regulation  regulatoryAlignment  relocation  Remain  representativeDemocracy  research  resignation  revocation  rights  risk  RobbinsOlly  RobinsonTommy  RogersIvan  RuddAmber  Salzburg  SanchezPedro  satellite  Scotland  secrecy  security  selectCommittee  SelmayrMartin  services  shadowCabinet  SiddiqTulip  singleMarket  SkinnerDennis  SmithJulian  SmithLaura  SnellGareth  SNP  socialCare  softBrexit  SoubryAnna  sovereignty  Spain  speech  SpelmanCaroline  split  springStatement  Stalin  StarmerKeir  stateAid  stockMarket  Strasbourg  strategy  StringerGraham  Suez  summit  survey  SwireHugo  Syriza  tactics  tariffs  TARP  technology  Thatcherism  ThatcherMargaret  TheLeft  TheRight  ThornberryEmily  threats  timetable  TimothyNick  ToryParty  towns  trade  tradeUnions  transition  transparency  transport  Trotsky  TrumpDonald  trust  TuskDonald  UK  UKIP  UmunnaChuka  uncertainty  Unite  universities  unrest  USA  VaradkarLeo  VaroufakisYanis  VerhofstadtGuy  video  visualisation  Wakefield  war  WatsonTon  WeyandSabine  whip  wikipedia  wikipediaPage  WilkinsChris  WillettsDavid  WilliamsonGavin  WilsonPhil  WilsonSammy  withdrawal  withdrawalAgreement  WollastonSarah  WrightJeremy  WTF  WTO  xenophobia 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: