petej + redlines   18

All the Brexit you can eat | Richard Seymour on Patreon
To get a parliamentary majority, she and everyone else knows perfectly well that she must drop Tory 'red lines'. She must negotiate seriously with Labour MPs and unions, make real concessions on workers' rights, and offer serious investment to Leave-voting constituencies.

Yes, that means fucking over her own headbanger backbenchers and the DUP. Yes, it risks a schism. Yes, her parliamentary situation is precarious enough. Yes, it means giving something to Jeremy Corbyn. But consider the results of actually securing a deal. Currently, businesses are hoarding a lot of capital. In the last year, we've seen the longest downswing in business investment outside of a recession for fifteen yeas. On top of that, almost a trillion pounds in assets and investments has been withdrawn from the City in fear of a "no deal" Brexit. (They call this 'Brexodus', because of course they do.)

In the event of a deal, even May's dismal deal, all that investment comes flooding back in. Unless the inevitable recession hits before then, it means a significant bump in economic growth in an otherwise weak economy, a bonus for Treasury receipts and a chance for Philip Hammond to relax the purse strings. All that money being set aside for 'no deal' preparations could be handed out to government departments. The Tories would have delivered on an historic mission, the Remoaners would be temporarily marginalised, Labour would be weakened, and May would get quite a lot of cachet from affluent centre-ground voters for standing up to her nutters. I would expect the Conservatives to start polling in the mid-Forties if they achieved that. Given the degree of fragmentation of public opinion on Brexit, any definite resolution would likely be welcomed. That would surely weaken the hand of right-wing splitters.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  MayTheresa  politics  ERG  ToryParty  redLines  strategy  dctagged  dc:creator=SeymourRichard 
6 weeks ago by petej
Labour’s Brexit Policy |
To sum up – I started with three simple rival ‘narratives’ of Labour’s underlying position on Brexit. I’ve articulated my own interpretation of Labour’s position, which implies that all of these narratives have something to them. In my view, Labour’s preferred Brexit outcome involves significant breaks with existing EU governance rules. The leadership wants those breaks to be in the area of neoliberal constraints on socialist policy-making; much of the PLP wants those breaks to be in the area of freedom of movement. In a scenario where Labour is in government without the Brexit deal having been concluded, those two categories of negotiating priority will be in tension. Nevertheless, the tension between those two categories of negotiating priority is (I would argue) not as fundamental as the tension between some of the Conservatives’ commitments. Moreover, unlike the Conservatives, Labour have been quite careful not to articulate any commitments that cannot be backed down from towards greater compatibility with existing EU rules. Thus in a scenario in which Labour were negotiating with the EU, I would expect Labour to make an effort to achieve a set of concessions around EU rules, and if those concessions could not be achieved, to capitulate in the direction of a more liberal existing-EU-institutions-aligned position.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  LabourParty  Remain  Leave  trade  economy  Bennism  Euroscepticism  immigration  borders  freedomOfMovement  customsUnion  singleMarket  ambiguity  tactics  flexibility  ToryParty  redLines  negotiations  strategy 
6 weeks ago by petej
Theresa May rules out Norway-style Brexit compromise with Labour | Politics | The Guardian
However, on Thursday May repeated her rejection of the “Norway plus” model and suggested she would not be prepared to offer it as a compromise arrangement because it would mean the continuation of freedom of movement. That is regarded in Downing Street as the hardest of the prime minister’s red lines.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  MayTheresa  politics  LabourParty  BolesNick  KinnockStephen  NorwayPlus  singleMarket  EEA  freedomOfMovement  StarmerKeir  noDeal  redLines  intransigence 
november 2018 by petej
Not much remains of Theresa May's red lines after the Brexit deal | Dan Roberts | Politics | The Guardian
It states clearly: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union.” In other words, the UK may not be a member of the single market, or have any direct ability to shape its rules in future, but it could yet have to play by them in perpetuity.
UK  EU  Brexit  negotiations  MayTheresa  LancasterHouse  alignment  singleMarket  customsUnion  ECJ  transition  finance  settlement  obligations  liabilities  politics  redLines 
december 2017 by petej

related tags

alignment  ambiguity  arrogance  Article50  backstop  BakerSteve  BarnierMichel  Bennism  blame  BolesNick  Bonapartism  borders  Brexit  Cabinet  CameronDavid  Chequers  CivilService  ClarkGreg  commonRulebook  compromise  confidenceAndSupply  control  CorbynJeremy  crisis  customs  customsUnion  cynicism  DavisDavid  dc:creator=ChakraborttyAditya  dc:creator=SeymourRichard  dctagged  defeat  democracy  deregulation  diplomacy  DoddsNigel  DowningStreet  DuncanSmithIain  DUP  ECJ  economy  editorial  EEA  EFTA  election  ERG  EU  EU27  Europe  EuropeanCouncil  EuropeanParliament  Euroscepticism  extension  failure  fascism  finance  flexibility  FosterArlene  freedomOfMovement  freeTrade  ge2017  GoodFridayAgreement  government  GrandWizards  Guardian  hardBrexit  honesty  humiliation  immigration  intransigence  Ireland  JohnsonBoris  JunckerJean-Claude  KennyEnda  KinnockStephen  LabourParty  LancasterHouse  LawsonNigel  leadership  Leave  liabilities  LidingtonDavid  MayTheresa  meaningfulVote  migration  morality  negotiations  noDeal  NorthernIreland  NorwayPlus  obligations  OrbanViktor  OsborneGeorge  Parliament  PatersonOwen  PeoplesVote  PlanB  polarisation  politics  populism  RaabDominic  redLines  RedwoodJohn  referendum  regulation  Remain  resignation  RobbinsOlly  RuddAmber  SalviniMatteo  Salzburg  SchulzMartin  secrecy  SelmayrMartin  settlement  singleMarket  softBrexit  speech  StarmerKeir  strategy  summit  tactics  TheTroubles  TimothyNick  ToryParty  trade  transition  transparency  TuskDonald  UK  VaradkarLeo  WeyandSabine  withdrawal  withdrawalAgreement 

Copy this bookmark: