petej + nodeal   384

No.10 statement: Look out for Theresa May's no-deal trap
"The government would then bring forward the withdrawal agreement bill," she said, referring to the domestic legislation enacting the deal with Brussels. "We would want to agree a timetable for this bill to ensure it is passed before the 22nd of May, so the UK need not take part in European parliamentary elections."

And that's when the alarm bells started ringing. That is the bit that will define if this is a real attempt to turn the page on how she approaches Brexit or another cynical trap based on deception.

The European elections are a crucial moment in the Brexit process. The EU has been clear that if the UK does not take part in those elections, it cannot remain inside, because it would mean that the European parliament would potentially be illegally constituted. The danger was always that May would use this fact to pivot parliament into a place where it had to choose between her deal or no-deal.

The elections are on May 23rd. But the last date Britain can pass the domestic legislation to take part is April 12th. This creates a kind of danger zone, a time window in which May could put her deal to parliament in the knowledge that no further extensions of Article 50 were possible.
UK  EU  Brexit  MayTheresa  withdrawalAgreement  LabourParty  CorbynJeremy  compromise  politics  Article50  extension  noDeal  deception  dctagged  dc:creator=DuntIan 
23 days ago by petej
PM concedes lack of support for deal as MPs seek to take control | Politics | The Guardian
May also came as close as she has done to ruling out a no-deal Brexit, stressing the damage it would do to the union – a message she also delivered to cabinet, according to government sources. “Unless this house agrees to it, no deal will not happen,” May said.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  HouseOfCommons  MayTheresa  withdrawalAgreement  politicalDeclaration  meaningfulVote  noDeal  indicativeVote  LetwinOliver 
4 weeks ago by petej
It’s confusing, contradictory, nonsense: Europe minister dismisses case for Brexit | Politics | The Guardian
“I do find it extraordinary that those who want Britain to leave the EU seem to hold to two utterly contradictory propositions at the same time. Their first belief is that inside the EU we cannot achieve any meaningful change and that too often the other countries are in some sort of nefarious conspiracy against our interests. But their second belief, which they hold equally firmly, is that outside the EU these very same countries and governments would rush to give us some new deal that has all the benefits of EU membership with none of the things that apply to others. Look at Norway and Switzerland. They both have higher EU migration rates than we do, they both have to pay into the EU budget, they both have to accept EU rules and regulations as the price for access to a free-trade single market. There is no getting away from that. I think the Leave campaign is still in a state of confusion about what they actually mean by ‘leave’.”
UK  EU  Europe  diplomacy  Brexit  referendum  LidingtonDavid  politics  GoveMichael  JohnsonBoris  trade  tariffs  noDeal 
4 weeks ago by petej
The EU knows it, so do our own MPs – Theresa May is finished | Rafael Behr | Opinion | The Guardian
The bankruptcy of May’s overseas enterprise has been coming since the day she set up shop in No 10. The squandering of credibility started almost at once, with the appointment of Boris Johnson as foreign secretary in 2016. Only someone with a tin ear for European sensibilities would have given the top diplomat job to a man known on the continent as a rogue peddler of anti-Brussels propaganda.

Then there was the early negotiating period, during which EU leaders thought May’s robotic, inscrutable manner concealed a deep, strategic intelligence. They came to realise that there was no mask. The inanity – the reciting of “Brexit means Brexit” even in private meetings – was not the cover story for a secret plan. It was the plan.

The point of no return was the summit in Salzburg last September. May was invited to make the case for what was left of her “Chequers plan” to European heads of government. It was late. They were tired. There were other difficult matters to attend to. And instead of speaking candidly, persuasively, passionately or even just coherently, the British prime minister read mechanically from a text that was, in substance, no different from an op-ed article already published under her name in a German newspaper that morning. It was embarrassing and insulting. Many European diplomats say that was the moment when Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and others realised they were dealing with someone out of her depth, unable to perform at the level required for the job that needed doing.

A similar story is emerging from last night’s summit. May was asked about backup plans in the event that parliament rejects her deal a third time. She had nothing. She restated her determination that the deal should pass. This infuriating obtuseness is grimly familiar on this side of the Channel. Cabinet ministers recognise the experience of being desperate for some glimpse of the prime minister’s calculations. People who want to support her have needed some window into the workings of her political brain, maybe just a peek at her soul. They get nothing. It is hard to build trust with someone so closed and hard to stay loyal.

There was a Salzburg-style moment for pro-European Tories on Wednesday night, when the prime minister went on television to berate MPs for obstructing her deal. The spirit was demagogic, even if the style was typically charmless. Here was a besieged leader, emerging from her bunker, presenting herself as the champion of her people against a rotten parliament. This did not go down well with MPs of any stripe. But it was most counterproductive with moderate Conservatives who have voted for May’s deal twice already and both times seen her respond to defeat by borrowing ideas and rhetoric from the hardliners who have given her nothing but humiliation. She rewards enemies of compromise by becoming ever less compromising.
UK  EU  Brexit  EU27  Article50  extension  noDeal  softBrexit  referendum  PeoplesVote  MayTheresa  leadership  summit  intransigence  incompetence  failure  politics  dctagged  dc:creator=BehrRafael  EuropeanCouncil 
5 weeks ago by petej
Robert Peston - We have a Tory government and governing... | Facebook
First, will she stick to government policy and - via a three-line whip - force MPs and ministers to vote to keep the option of leaving without a deal on 29 March on the table?

Were she to do this, she would probably precipitate the resignations of more than 20 ministers from cabinet and lower ranks. Which is the sort of accident most PM's would rather avoid.

But were she to allow a free vote, she would be conceding that on one of the most important questions of this age or any, she and the government used to have a position and a view, but now she doesn't.

Which is not a great look.

Second, if there is a free vote, how would she vote?

If for a no-deal Brexit, then she would probably be on the losing side, which would look very odd (to say the least), though she is racking up these historic losses like a school child collecting Pokemon game cards.

And if she votes against, then she would be betraying what she has claimed for months is in the interest of the nation.

So what will she do? How will she whip her party and vote herself in that historic no-deal vote next week?

I asked her ministers. None have a clue. She won't tell them.

How would they recommend she votes?

I asked one I would normally expect to be less religious on this issue than most.

This is what he said: "she should give a free vote and then vote herself to rule out leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement(without a deal)".

So the recommended position for this prime minister, according to one of her closest allies and supporters, would be to abandon the pretence that the government is in charge of leaving the EU - and also to admit that what she has been telling us about the virtues of no deal have been so much piffle.
UK  politics  Brexit  ToryParty  ERG  LabourParty  leadership  anti-Semitism  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  CoxGeoffrey  backstop  legal  noDeal  MayTheresa  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
7 weeks ago by petej
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