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PM concedes lack of support for deal as MPs seek to take control | Politics | The Guardian
May also came as close as she has done to ruling out a no-deal Brexit, stressing the damage it would do to the union – a message she also delivered to cabinet, according to government sources. “Unless this house agrees to it, no deal will not happen,” May said.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  HouseOfCommons  MayTheresa  withdrawalAgreement  politicalDeclaration  meaningfulVote  noDeal  indicativeVote  LetwinOliver 
march 2019 by petej
All the Brexit you can eat | Richard Seymour on Patreon
To get a parliamentary majority, she and everyone else knows perfectly well that she must drop Tory 'red lines'. She must negotiate seriously with Labour MPs and unions, make real concessions on workers' rights, and offer serious investment to Leave-voting constituencies.

Yes, that means fucking over her own headbanger backbenchers and the DUP. Yes, it risks a schism. Yes, her parliamentary situation is precarious enough. Yes, it means giving something to Jeremy Corbyn. But consider the results of actually securing a deal. Currently, businesses are hoarding a lot of capital. In the last year, we've seen the longest downswing in business investment outside of a recession for fifteen yeas. On top of that, almost a trillion pounds in assets and investments has been withdrawn from the City in fear of a "no deal" Brexit. (They call this 'Brexodus', because of course they do.)

In the event of a deal, even May's dismal deal, all that investment comes flooding back in. Unless the inevitable recession hits before then, it means a significant bump in economic growth in an otherwise weak economy, a bonus for Treasury receipts and a chance for Philip Hammond to relax the purse strings. All that money being set aside for 'no deal' preparations could be handed out to government departments. The Tories would have delivered on an historic mission, the Remoaners would be temporarily marginalised, Labour would be weakened, and May would get quite a lot of cachet from affluent centre-ground voters for standing up to her nutters. I would expect the Conservatives to start polling in the mid-Forties if they achieved that. Given the degree of fragmentation of public opinion on Brexit, any definite resolution would likely be welcomed. That would surely weaken the hand of right-wing splitters.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  MayTheresa  politics  ERG  ToryParty  redLines  strategy  dctagged  dc:creator=SeymourRichard 
march 2019 by petej
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