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Brexit: No-deal impact assessment published - BBC News
It said the worst-hit areas economically in a no-deal scenario would be Wales (-8.1%), Scotland (-8.0%), Northern Ireland (-9.1%) and the north east (-10.5%).
UK  EU  Brexit  noDeal  impact  SoubryAnna  customs  food  prices  business  Dover  delay  economy  NorthernIreland  North-East 
7 weeks ago by petej
A no-deal Brexit won’t result in a siege. The EU will be more clinical than that | Tom Kibasi | Opinion | The Guardian
Instead, the EU’s response to a no deal will be strategic: opening up advantage, sector by sector, calmly and patiently dismantling the UK’s leading industries over the course of a decade. They will eat the elephant one bite at a time. The problem with abandoning the rules of the international order is that you no longer enjoy their protection.

A no-deal Brexit would hand the EU enormous power: it would decide how and when to introduce new frictions between the UK and the single market, giving sufficient time for firms like Airbus, Nissan or AstraZeneca to relocate production. As recent decisions have demonstrated, even seemingly fixed capital investment is more mobile than many Brexiters imagine.

The EU would set out a timeline over which it would introduce compliance and rules of origin checks on the UK’s most competitive exporting sectors. It is not hard to imagine checks on automotive parts from 2021, pharmaceuticals from 2022 and aerospace from 2023, alongside constantly shifting sands of equivalence for financial services. This would allow firms an orderly departure from the UK to the single market. It will be a steady drift away from the UK, not an avalanche. Moreover, the absence of any agreement would mean lasting uncertainty that would deter future investment. The UK is particularly exposed in this regard: our serious lack of competitiveness is demonstrated by persistently large trade deficits. This means the UK is heavily reliant on foreign investment – the “kindness of strangers” – which would likely collapse. It is not hard to imagine a future government going cap in hand to the IMF for a bailout.
UK  EU  Brexit  noDeal  delay  shortage  food  prices  imports  livingStandards  competition  industry  trade  regulation  compliance  investment  Nissan  dctagged  dc:creator=KibasiTom 
10 weeks ago by petej
David Davis: don't fear no-deal Brexit despite inevitable 'hiccups' | Politics | The Guardian
He added: “We are a big country, we can look after ourselves and we will look after ourselves very well indeed once we are properly out of the European Union.”
UK  EU  Brexit  noDeal  DavisDavid  politics  shortage  food  medicine 
november 2018 by petej
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