petej + dc:creator=pestonrobert   98

Theresa May cannot ignore her party forever, writes Robert Peston - ITV News
Following the Tory humiliation in the local elections and the anticipated humiliation in the forthcoming EU elections, there is an expectation and hope among Tory MPs and her cabinet colleagues that she will announce a departure date that would allow MPs to choose their shortlist of two candidates in June or July - which would then permit hustings of members over the summer and the election of the new leader BEFORE Tory conference.

But close colleagues of the PM think she wants still to be PM and party leader at party conference, which on her view would be the showcase for the duo of potential leaders picked by MPs, prior to that final vote by members.
UK  politics  ToryParty  leadership  1922Committee  BradyGraham  resignation  timetable  conference  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
14 days ago by petej
Robert Peston - We have a Tory government and governing... | Facebook
First, will she stick to government policy and - via a three-line whip - force MPs and ministers to vote to keep the option of leaving without a deal on 29 March on the table?

Were she to do this, she would probably precipitate the resignations of more than 20 ministers from cabinet and lower ranks. Which is the sort of accident most PM's would rather avoid.

But were she to allow a free vote, she would be conceding that on one of the most important questions of this age or any, she and the government used to have a position and a view, but now she doesn't.

Which is not a great look.

Second, if there is a free vote, how would she vote?

If for a no-deal Brexit, then she would probably be on the losing side, which would look very odd (to say the least), though she is racking up these historic losses like a school child collecting Pokemon game cards.

And if she votes against, then she would be betraying what she has claimed for months is in the interest of the nation.

So what will she do? How will she whip her party and vote herself in that historic no-deal vote next week?

I asked her ministers. None have a clue. She won't tell them.

How would they recommend she votes?

I asked one I would normally expect to be less religious on this issue than most.

This is what he said: "she should give a free vote and then vote herself to rule out leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement(without a deal)".

So the recommended position for this prime minister, according to one of her closest allies and supporters, would be to abandon the pretence that the government is in charge of leaving the EU - and also to admit that what she has been telling us about the virtues of no deal have been so much piffle.
UK  politics  Brexit  ToryParty  ERG  LabourParty  leadership  anti-Semitism  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  CoxGeoffrey  backstop  legal  noDeal  MayTheresa  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
11 weeks ago by petej
Why a no-deal Brexit is likely - ITV News
11) The probability of the EU giving the UK as long as it realistically needs to recover from its Brexit nervous breakdown and say with clarity what kind of future relationship it wants with the EU is infinitesimally tiny.
UK  EU  Brexit  MayTheresa  noDeal  politics  backstop  CorbynJeremy  customsUnion  negotiations  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
february 2019 by petej
Theresa May has thrown the dice up in the air tonight | Coffee House
The point is that she is almost certain to be humiliated and lose the vote on the Brady amendment, because of opposition from the ERG group of Brexiter Tory MPs (those led by Jacob Rees-Mogg) who don’t believe the Brady amendment is specific enough about how the backstop would in practice be shredded, and who don’t trust her to deliver on it unless the amendment is put in her name (which she is reluctant to do).

So those close to May are already conceding to me that they expect her to lose on the Brady amendment, but that would be OK so long as the margin of defeat were not too great – because just maybe she would then be able to persuade the EU that Labour MPs are biddable with offers to preserve workers’ rights and environmental protections, and (again) just maybe the backing of these Corbyn refuseniks would see her reworked deal over the line.

This feels like Olympic-level straw-clutching.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  ToryParty  backstop  ERG  MayTheresa  BradyGraham  amendments  WeyandSabine  EU27  withdrawalAgreement  CooperYvette  BolesNick  Article50  extension  noDeal  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
january 2019 by petej
Who are Theresa May's foes in Parliament? - ITV News
So the normal valves in the British constitution that let pressure out of the system when there is an irreconcilable conflict between the executive and the legislature are not functioning properly.

But the genius of the British constitution is its adaptability.

All the Boleses, Letwins and Greiveses are doing - with the help of the clerks of the Commons - is finding another valve.
UK  EU  Brexit  MayTheresa  amendments  BolesNick  LetwinOliver  MorganNicky  GrievesDominic  FTPA  constitution  Parliament  democracy  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert  noDeal  PlanB  HouseOfCommons 
january 2019 by petej
Greece isn't any old troubled debtor - BBC News
"If those talks collapse, and Greece defaults on its debts - and then is on a path to exit from the euro - that would probably lead to a revolution in perceptions about what the euro is all about.

At that point, monetary union will have been shown to be a question of economic convenience for its members, rather than profound supra-national destiny.

To state the obvious, which seems however to be lost on the leaders of the eurozone, once the euro is not forever for any member, it is not forever for all members.

And once that clonking penny drops for global investors, the notion that the whole project will fall apart - not tomorrow, but one day - will increasingly become the default view."
Greece  Syriza  Europe  debt  finance  crisis  austerity  EC  ECB  IMF  troika  negotiations  BlanchardOlivier  reform  pensions  poverty  VAT  Euro  currency  grexit  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
june 2015 by petej
BBC News - The agony and ecstasy of UK recovery
"The upper peak of the labour market is clearly thriving in both employment and wage terms. The mid-tier is languishing in both employment and real wage terms. And for the lower skilled, employment is up at the cost of lower real wages for the group as a whole. This has been a jobs-rich, but pay-poor, recovery."
UK  economy  crisis  wages  pay  growth  stagnation  interestRates  BankOfEngland  BofE  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
october 2014 by petej
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