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Why A No-Deal Brexit Is Now Theresa May's Fallback Plan To Save Her Party – And Herself | HuffPost UK
One source says: “She’s been told – ‘You need to understand prime minister, it’s very simple maths – the ERG [European Research Group] will fuck you, fuck the Conservative party and they will throw themselves over a cliff. Your Remainer colleagues will not’. It’s who’s got the biggest balls.”

“The Remainers need a gameplan to show Julian [Smith] is wrong on this. At the moment, they are rolling over having tummies tickled. And she’s thrown all her weight behind the chief whip.

“She gets to save her party and potentially gets to live for another day. She will be the PM who delivered Brexit. She can blame Parliament and Tusk, Juncker and the EU [for no-deal] and say I managed it as best as anyone could.

“She’s home and dry as long as she sits tight with the Brexiteers who only a few weeks ago wanted her head. It’s utterly tragic.”

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“A lot of people are in despair. The sensible ones have their head in their hands, the nutters we kept at the door for 40 odd years are now in control. We thought they were dead after they didn’t get rid of her. They are back in control, because they are willing to blow the house up.”
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  noDeal  MayTheresa  negotiations  backstop  DUP  meaningfulVote  SmithJulian  LewisBrandon  ToryParty  customsUnion  CorbynJeremy  LancasterHouse  WilkinsChris  FoxLiam  customsArrangement  Chequers  regulatoryAlignment  BradyGraham  amendments  ERG  immigration  Leave  politics 
6 weeks ago by petej
'It is terrible but I still want it': Crewe voters size up no-deal Brexit | Politics | The Guardian
“Look at this,” he said, pointing to a paragraph about negotiating a banking collapse. “This is what’s coming.” He’d been stockpiling tins for months. A no-deal Brexit was going to make everyone poorer, he said. But it was worth it, if it meant the UK got control over immigration. That’s why he voted to leave the European Union: “We’ve got too many of them coming over here and I want it to stop.”
UK  EU  Brexit  Leave  noDeal  stockpiling  shortage  poverty  immigration  SmithLaura  CooperYvette  amendments  xenophobia  Crewe 
7 weeks ago by petej
If Corbyn gets his hands dirty he can avert a hard Brexit | Martin Kettle | Opinion | The Guardian
May's position is neither substantial nor sustainable. It is disjointed and delicate. It bears repeating, after Tuesday’s volte-face, that it was May herself, not the EU, who created the all-UK backstop that she is now seeking to unpick. But the deeper truth, which she must have known when she originally agreed to it in 2017, is that the backstop was an attempt to reconcile three promises that are almost impossible to fit together in one consistent policy.

The first of these is May’s promise to leave the customs union, which she made because she knows that the Thatcherite right of her party, including some of the most fanatical long-term advocates of Brexit, attaches immense importance – though it was barely mentioned in 2016 – to an autonomous trade policy. The second is her promise to Ireland, which in law and by treaty she is duty bound to make, that a new trade regime would not cause the creation of a hard border of any kind. And the third is the promise she made to the DUP after the 2017 election that she would not permit customs and regulatory divergence between Britain and Northern Ireland.
UK  Brexit  politics  CorbynJeremy  LabourParty  customsUnion  singleMarket  backstop  MayTheresa  amendments  BradyGraham  ERG  DUP  dctagged  dc:creator=KettleMartin 
7 weeks ago by petej
Theresa May has thrown the dice up in the air tonight | Coffee House
The point is that she is almost certain to be humiliated and lose the vote on the Brady amendment, because of opposition from the ERG group of Brexiter Tory MPs (those led by Jacob Rees-Mogg) who don’t believe the Brady amendment is specific enough about how the backstop would in practice be shredded, and who don’t trust her to deliver on it unless the amendment is put in her name (which she is reluctant to do).

So those close to May are already conceding to me that they expect her to lose on the Brady amendment, but that would be OK so long as the margin of defeat were not too great – because just maybe she would then be able to persuade the EU that Labour MPs are biddable with offers to preserve workers’ rights and environmental protections, and (again) just maybe the backing of these Corbyn refuseniks would see her reworked deal over the line.

This feels like Olympic-level straw-clutching.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  ToryParty  backstop  ERG  MayTheresa  BradyGraham  amendments  WeyandSabine  EU27  withdrawalAgreement  CooperYvette  BolesNick  Article50  extension  noDeal  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
8 weeks ago by petej
Who are Theresa May's foes in Parliament? - ITV News
So the normal valves in the British constitution that let pressure out of the system when there is an irreconcilable conflict between the executive and the legislature are not functioning properly.

But the genius of the British constitution is its adaptability.

All the Boleses, Letwins and Greiveses are doing - with the help of the clerks of the Commons - is finding another valve.
UK  EU  Brexit  MayTheresa  amendments  BolesNick  LetwinOliver  MorganNicky  GrievesDominic  FTPA  constitution  Parliament  democracy  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert  noDeal  PlanB  HouseOfCommons 
9 weeks ago by petej
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