petej + bradygraham   30

Conservatives react angrily to defeat of May's Brexit plan | Politics | The Guardian
One former minister said the “fake consensus” in the party around the Brady amendment had been exposed by Wednesday night’s vote. “It was never going to last. She has to pick. Either she’s serious about doing a no deal if necessary, in which case she’s a Ukip prime minister, and keeps the ERG onside but fractures the rest of the party, or she rules it out and she’s a Conservative PM but loses the ERG. At the moment she’s nowhere and pleasing no one. It’s about choices. And she won’t make one.”
UK  politics  ToryParty  Brexit  ERG  BolesNick  MayTheresa  BarclayStephen  noDeal  BradyGraham  AllenHeidi  SoubryAnna 
5 weeks ago by petej
Why A No-Deal Brexit Is Now Theresa May's Fallback Plan To Save Her Party – And Herself | HuffPost UK
One source says: “She’s been told – ‘You need to understand prime minister, it’s very simple maths – the ERG [European Research Group] will fuck you, fuck the Conservative party and they will throw themselves over a cliff. Your Remainer colleagues will not’. It’s who’s got the biggest balls.”

“The Remainers need a gameplan to show Julian [Smith] is wrong on this. At the moment, they are rolling over having tummies tickled. And she’s thrown all her weight behind the chief whip.

“She gets to save her party and potentially gets to live for another day. She will be the PM who delivered Brexit. She can blame Parliament and Tusk, Juncker and the EU [for no-deal] and say I managed it as best as anyone could.

“She’s home and dry as long as she sits tight with the Brexiteers who only a few weeks ago wanted her head. It’s utterly tragic.”

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“A lot of people are in despair. The sensible ones have their head in their hands, the nutters we kept at the door for 40 odd years are now in control. We thought they were dead after they didn’t get rid of her. They are back in control, because they are willing to blow the house up.”
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  noDeal  MayTheresa  negotiations  backstop  DUP  meaningfulVote  SmithJulian  LewisBrandon  ToryParty  customsUnion  CorbynJeremy  LancasterHouse  WilkinsChris  FoxLiam  customsArrangement  Chequers  regulatoryAlignment  BradyGraham  amendments  ERG  immigration  Leave  politics 
6 weeks ago by petej
If Corbyn gets his hands dirty he can avert a hard Brexit | Martin Kettle | Opinion | The Guardian
May's position is neither substantial nor sustainable. It is disjointed and delicate. It bears repeating, after Tuesday’s volte-face, that it was May herself, not the EU, who created the all-UK backstop that she is now seeking to unpick. But the deeper truth, which she must have known when she originally agreed to it in 2017, is that the backstop was an attempt to reconcile three promises that are almost impossible to fit together in one consistent policy.

The first of these is May’s promise to leave the customs union, which she made because she knows that the Thatcherite right of her party, including some of the most fanatical long-term advocates of Brexit, attaches immense importance – though it was barely mentioned in 2016 – to an autonomous trade policy. The second is her promise to Ireland, which in law and by treaty she is duty bound to make, that a new trade regime would not cause the creation of a hard border of any kind. And the third is the promise she made to the DUP after the 2017 election that she would not permit customs and regulatory divergence between Britain and Northern Ireland.
UK  Brexit  politics  CorbynJeremy  LabourParty  customsUnion  singleMarket  backstop  MayTheresa  amendments  BradyGraham  ERG  DUP  dctagged  dc:creator=KettleMartin 
7 weeks ago by petej
Theresa May has thrown the dice up in the air tonight | Coffee House
The point is that she is almost certain to be humiliated and lose the vote on the Brady amendment, because of opposition from the ERG group of Brexiter Tory MPs (those led by Jacob Rees-Mogg) who don’t believe the Brady amendment is specific enough about how the backstop would in practice be shredded, and who don’t trust her to deliver on it unless the amendment is put in her name (which she is reluctant to do).

So those close to May are already conceding to me that they expect her to lose on the Brady amendment, but that would be OK so long as the margin of defeat were not too great – because just maybe she would then be able to persuade the EU that Labour MPs are biddable with offers to preserve workers’ rights and environmental protections, and (again) just maybe the backing of these Corbyn refuseniks would see her reworked deal over the line.

This feels like Olympic-level straw-clutching.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  ToryParty  backstop  ERG  MayTheresa  BradyGraham  amendments  WeyandSabine  EU27  withdrawalAgreement  CooperYvette  BolesNick  Article50  extension  noDeal  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
8 weeks ago by petej

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