nhaliday + wonkish   690

Randomizing Religion: The Impact of Protestant Evangelism on Economic Outcomes
To test the causal impact of religiosity, we conducted a randomized evaluation of an evangelical Protestant Christian values and theology education program that consisted of 15 weekly half-hour sessions. We analyze outcomes for 6,276 ultra-poor Filipino households six months after the program ended. We find _significant increases in religiosity and income_, no significant changes in total labor supply, assets, consumption, food security, or _life satisfaction, and a significant decrease in perceived relative economic status_. Exploratory analysis suggests the program may have improved hygienic practices and increased household discord, and that _the income treatment effect may operate through increasing grit_.

Social Cohesion, Religious Beliefs, and the Effect of Protestantism on Suicide: https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00708
In an economic theory of suicide, we model social cohesion of the religious community and religious beliefs about afterlife as two mechanisms by which Protestantism increases suicide propensity. We build a unique micro-regional dataset of 452 Prussian counties in 1816-21 and 1869-71, when religiousness was still pervasive. Exploiting the concentric dispersion of Protestantism around Wittenberg, our instrumental-variable model finds that Protestantism had a substantial positive effect on suicide. Results are corroborated in first-difference models. Tests relating to the two mechanisms based on historical church-attendance data and modern suicide data suggest that the sociological channel plays the more important role.
study  field-study  sociology  wonkish  intervention  religion  theos  branches  evidence-based  christianity  protestant-catholic  asia  developing-world  economics  compensation  money  labor  human-capital  emotion  s-factor  discipline  multi  social-structure  death  individualism-collectivism  n-factor  cohesion  causation  endogenous-exogenous  history  early-modern  europe  germanic  geography  within-group  urban-rural 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Red State Families: Better Than We Knew | Institute for Family Studies
Second, adjusting for education and race/ethnicity transforms the relationship between the Red State Index and marital upbringing from a curvilinear to a linear one. The redder the state, the more likely is a teen to grow up with his or her married birth parents. The relationship is modest but statistically significant. For every ten-point increase in the Red State Index, the proportion of teens living with both parents rises by one percentage point. This suggests that red state family culture is associated with increased odds of being raised in an intact, married family.

http://anepigone.blogspot.com/2017/11/nicholas-kristof-strikes-out.html
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/28/no-republicans-arent-hypocrites-on-family-values-215873
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/blue-america-more-virtuous-than-red-nope/
news  org:ngo  douthatish  sociology  data  analysis  usa  within-group  politics  ideology  coalitions  right-wing  correlation  confounding  race  demographics  education  class  life-history  dignity  wonkish  multi  gnon  general-survey  pro-rata  org:mag  intricacy  religion 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Race, Religion, and Immigration in… | Democracy Fund Voter Study Group
Figure 2 The Relationship between 2011 Attitudes and Vote Choices in 2012

Third, although perceptions of the economy are related to vote choice in both years—unsurprisingly, people who believed the economy was doing worse were more likely to vote for the out-party Republicans—its effect is similar in both years. This suggests that the 2016 vote choice was not uniquely about “economic anxiety.”

The results also show that certain factors were less strongly related to voters’ choice in 2016 than they were in 2012: social issue attitudes, economic issue attitudes, and, more notably, party identification. The smaller impact of party identification reflects the larger number of defections in 2016, as compared to 2012.

What stands out most, however, is the attitudes that became more strongly related to the vote in 2016: attitudes about immigration, feelings toward black people, and feelings toward Muslims. This pattern fits the prevailing discourse of the two campaigns and the increased attention to issues involving ethnic, racial, and religious minorities in 2016.(v)
org:ngo  wonkish  politics  polisci  data  analysis  database  visualization  correlation  phalanges  chart  2016-election  postmortem  coalitions  policy  ranking  list  impetus  trump  migration  race  poll  values  islam  education  class  obama  elections  identity-politics  demographics  roots  nationalism-globalism  religion  christianity  usa  diversity  clinton  flux-stasis  homo-hetero  emotion  crosstab  economics  trade  redistribution  taxes  welfare-state  stylized-facts  labor  cost-benefit  prediction  descriptive  2016  2017  sentiment 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Do High School Sports Build or Reveal Character?
We examine the extent to which participation in high school athletics has beneficial effects on future education, labor market, and health outcomes. Due to the absence of plausible instruments in observational data, we use recently developed methods that relate selection on observables with selection on unobservables to estimate bounds on the causal effect of athletics participation. We analyze these effects in the US separately for men and women using three different nationally representative longitudinal data sets that each link high school athletics participation with later-life outcomes. We do not find consistent evidence of individual benefits reported in many previous studies – once we have accounted for selection, high school athletes are no more likely to attend college, earn higher wages, or participate in the labor force. However, we do find that men (but not women) who participated in high school athletics are more likely to exercise regularly as adults. Nevertheless, athletes are no less likely to be obese.
pdf  study  broad-econ  economics  econometrics  microfoundations  human-capital  sports  intervention  null-result  wonkish  endo-exo  selection  confounding  labor  education  health  fitness  fitsci  org:ngo  white-paper  methodology  compensation  cost-benefit  input-output  endogenous-exogenous  branches 
november 2017 by nhaliday
The political economy of fertility | SpringerLink
This paper studies the political economy of fertility. Specifically, I argue that fertility may be a strategic choice for ethnic groups engaged in redistributive conflict. I first present a simple conflict model where high fertility is optimal for each ethnic group if and only if the economy’s ethnic diversity is high, institutions are weak, or both. I then test the model in a cross-national dataset. Consistent with the theory, I find that economies where the product of ethnic diversity and a measure of institutional weakness is high have increased fertility rates. I conclude that fertility may depend on political factors.
study  sociology  speculation  stylized-facts  demographics  population  fertility  polisci  political-econ  institutions  nationalism-globalism  tribalism  us-them  self-interest  intervention  wonkish  pdf  piracy  microfoundations  phalanges  diversity  putnam-like  competition  israel  MENA  the-bones 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Places, not Programs – spottedtoad
1. There has to be a place for people to go.
2. It has to be safe.
3. There preferably needs to be bathrooms and water available there.
Schools fulfill this list, which is one reason they are still among our few remaining sources of shared meaning and in-person community. As Christ Arnade has often remarked, McDonalds fast-food restaurants fulfill this list, and are therefore undervalued sources of community in low-income communities. (The young black guys in my Philadelphia Americorps program would not-entirely-jokingly allude to McDonalds as the central hub of the weekend social/dating scene, where only one’s most immaculate clothing- a brand-new shirt, purchased just for the occasion- would suffice.) Howard Schultz, for all his occasional bouts of madness, understood from the beginning that Starbucks would succeed by becoming a “third space” between work and home, which the coffee chain for all its faults has indubitably become for many people. Ivan Illich argued that the streets themselves in poor countries once, but no longer, acted as the same kind of collective commons.
ratty  unaffiliated  institutions  community  alt-inst  metabuch  rhetoric  contrarianism  policy  wonkish  realness  intervention  education  embodied  order-disorder  checklists  cost-disease 
november 2017 by nhaliday
An investigation of the unexpectedly high fertility of secular, native-born Jews in Israel: Population Studies: Vol 70, No 2
Secular, native-born Jews in Israel enjoy the socio-economic status of many affluent populations living in other democratic countries, but have above-replacement period and cohort fertility. This study revealed a constellation of interrelated factors which together characterize the socio-economic, cultural, and political environment of this fertility behaviour and set it apart from that of other advanced societies. The factors are: a combination of state and family support for childbearing; a dual emphasis on the social importance of women's employment and fertility; policies that support working mothers within a conservative welfare regime; a family system in which parents provide significant financial and caregiving aid to their adult children; relatively egalitarian gender-role attitudes and household behaviour; the continuing importance of familist ideology and of marriage as a social institution; the role of Jewish nationalism and collective behaviour in a religious society characterized by ethno-national conflict; and a discourse which defines women as the biological reproducers of the nation.

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/904137844834398209
https://archive.is/2RVjo
Fertility trends in Israel and Palestinian territories

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/923612344009351168
https://archive.is/FJ7Fn
https://archive.is/8vq6O
https://archive.is/qxpmX
my impression is the evidence actually favors propaganda effects over tax credits and shit. but I need to gather it all together at some pt
study  sociology  polisci  biophysical-econ  demographics  fertility  demographic-transition  intervention  wonkish  hmm  track-record  MENA  israel  judaism  🎩  gender  egalitarianism-hierarchy  tribalism  us-them  ethnocentrism  religion  labor  pdf  piracy  the-bones  microfoundations  life-history  dignity  nationalism-globalism  multi  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  backup  propaganda  status  fashun  hari-seldon 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Dressed for Success? The Effect of School Uniforms on Student Achievement and Behavior
Each school in the district determines adoption independently, providing variation over schools and time. By including student and school fixed-effects we find evidence that uniform adoption improves attendance in secondary grades, while in elementary schools they generate large increases in teacher retention.
study  economics  sociology  econometrics  natural-experiment  endo-exo  usa  the-south  social-norms  intervention  policy  wonkish  education  human-capital  management  industrial-org  organizing  input-output  evidence-based  endogenous-exogenous 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Where Has Progress Got Us? - NYTimes.com
THE TRUE AND ONLY HEAVEN Progress and Its Critics. By Christopher Lasch. 591 pp. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. $25.

reviewed by William Julius Wilson

Lower-middle-class culture, Mr. Lasch argues, reflects an emphasis on the family, the church and the neighborhood. A community's continuity is valued more highly than individual advancement, social solidarity is favored over social mobility and the maintenance of existing ways takes precedent over mainstream ideals of success. Parents want their children to succeed in life, but they also want them to be considerate of their elders, to willingly bear their responsibilities and to show courage under adversity. "More concerned with honor than with worldly ambition, they have less interest in the future than do upper-middle-class parents, who try to equip their children with the qualities required for competitive advancement."

Mr. Lasch acknowledges the provincialism and narrowness of lower-middle-class culture, and he does not deny that "it has produced racism, nativism, anti-intellectualism, and all the other evils so often cited by liberal critics." But, he maintains, in their zeal to condemn such objectionable traits, liberals have failed to see the valuable features of petty-bourgeois culture -- what he calls moral realism, skepticism about progress, respect for limits and understanding that everything has its price.
news  org:rec  christopher-lasch  books  review  summary  big-peeps  wonkish  right-wing  aristos  politics  ideology  madisonian  nascent-state  society  malaise  zeitgeist  coming-apart  dignity  class  class-warfare  capitalism  walls  duty  honor  tradition  social-capital  religion  christianity  theos  managerial-state  unintended-consequences  polisci  volo-avolo  no-go  degrees-of-freedom  prejudice  realness  cynicism-idealism  reason  values  community  mobility  morality  virtu  usa  gibbon  civil-liberty  westminster  race  discrimination  education  higher-ed  zero-positive-sum  cost-benefit  interests  noblesse-oblige  hypocrisy 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Love Thy Neighbor? Ethnoracial Diversity and Trust Reexamined: American Journal of Sociology: Vol 121, No 3
For whites, heterogeneity means more out-group neighbors; for nonwhites, heterogeneity means more in-group neighbors. Therefore, separate analyses were conducted by ethnoracial groups. Only for whites does living among out-group members—not in diverse communities per se—negatively predict trust.

doesn't really change the essential lesson
study  polisci  sociology  anthropology  trust  cohesion  diversity  putnam-like  🎩  microfoundations  tribalism  us-them  n-factor  anomie  social-capital  malaise  stylized-facts  the-bones  cooperate-defect  identity-politics  spearhead  wonkish  intricacy 
september 2017 by nhaliday
GOP tax plan would provide major gains for richest 1%, uneven benefits for the middle class, report says - The Washington Post
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/913863513038311426
https://archive.is/PYRx9
Trump tweets: For his voters.
Tax plan: Something else entirely.
https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/913864779256692737
https://archive.is/5bzQz
This is appallingly stupid if accurate

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/28/upshot/what-the-tax-bill-would-look-like-for-25000-middle-class-families.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/30/us/politics/tax-cuts-increases-for-your-income.html

Treasury Removes Paper at Odds With Mnuchin’s Take on Corporate-Tax Cut’s Winners: https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-removes-paper-at-odds-with-mnuchins-take-on-corporate-tax-cuts-winners-1506638463

Tax changes for graduate students under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: https://bcide.gitlab.io/post/gop-tax-plan/
H.R.1 – 155th Congress (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) 1 proposes changes to the US Tax Code that threatens to destroy the finances of STEM graduate students nationwide. The offending provision, 1204(a)(3), strikes section 117(d) 2 of the US Tax Code. This means that under the proposal, tuition waivers are considered taxable income.

For graduate students, this means an increase of thousands of dollars in owed federal taxes. Below I show a calculation for my own situation. The short of it is this: My federal taxes increase from ~7.5% of my income to ~31%. I will owe about $6300 more in federal taxes under this legislation. Like many other STEM students, my choices would be limited to taking on significant debt or quitting my program entirely.

The Republican War on College: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/11/republican-college/546308/

Trump's plan to tax colleges will harm higher education — but it's still a good idea: http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-taxing-colleges-is-a-good-idea-2017-11
- James Miller

The Republican Tax Plan Is a Disaster for Families With Children: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/11/the-republican-tax-plan-is-a-disaster-for-families-with-children/
- Kevin Drum

The gains from cutting corporate tax rates: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/11/corporate-taxes-2.html
I’ve been reading in this area on and off since the 1980s, and I really don’t think these are phony results.

Entrepreneurship and State Taxation: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2018003pap.pdf
We find that new firm employment is negatively—and disproportionately—affected by corporate tax rates. We find little evidence of an effect of personal and sales taxes on entrepreneurial outcomes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/26/us/politics/johnson-amendment-churches-taxes-politics.html
nobody in the comments section seems to have even considered the comparison with universities

The GOP Tax Bills Are Infrastructure Bills Too. Here’s Why.: http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/gov-republican-tax-bills-impact-infrastructure.html
news  org:rec  trump  current-events  wonkish  policy  taxes  data  analysis  visualization  money  monetary-fiscal  compensation  class  hmm  :/  coalitions  multi  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  backup  class-warfare  redistribution  elite  vampire-squid  crooked  journos-pundits  tactics  strategy  politics  increase-decrease  pro-rata  labor  capital  distribution  corporation  corruption  anomie  counter-revolution  higher-ed  academia  nascent-state  mathtariat  phd  grad-school  org:mag  left-wing  econotariat  marginal-rev  links  study  summary  economics  econometrics  endogenous-exogenous  natural-experiment  longitudinal  regularizer  religion  christianity  org:gov  infrastructure  transportation  cracker-econ  org:lite  org:biz  crosstab  dynamic  let-me-see  cost-benefit  entrepreneurialism  branches  geography  usa  within-group 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Who Emigrates From Denmark? – LaborEcon
Ilpo Kauppinen, Panu Poutvaara, and I have just finished a paper that examines the selection characterizing emigrants from Denmark, one of the richest and most redistributive European welfare states.

The paper makes a neat theoretical contribution. It derives the conditions that determine whether the skill distribution of the emigrants stochastically dominates (or is stochastically dominated by) the skill distribution of the stayers. Because the rewards to skills in Denmark are low (relative to practically all possible destinations), the model predicts that the emigrants will be positively selected, and that the skill distribution of the movers will stochastically dominate that of the stayers.

Our analysis of administrative data for the entire Danish population between 1995 and 2010 strongly confirms the implications of the model. Denmark is indeed seeing an outflow of its most skilled workers. And that is one of the consequences that a very generous welfare state must learn to live with.

The paper is forthcoming in the Economic Journal.
econotariat  borjas  economics  macro  labor  redistribution  welfare-state  europe  nordic  migration  human-capital  compensation  inequality  egalitarianism-hierarchy  anglosphere  correlation  selection  study  summary  🎩  stylized-facts  wonkish  policy  unintended-consequences  comparison  polisci  political-econ  nationalism-globalism  dysgenics 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Social Animal House: The Economic and Academic Consequences of Fraternity Membership by Jack Mara, Lewis Davis, Stephen Schmidt :: SSRN
We exploit changes in the residential and social environment on campus to identify the economic and academic consequences of fraternity membership at a small Northeastern college. Our estimates suggest that these consequences are large, with fraternity membership lowering student GPA by approximately 0.25 points on the traditional four-point scale, but raising future income by approximately 36%, for those students whose decision about membership is affected by changes in the environment. These results suggest that fraternity membership causally produces large gains in social capital, which more than outweigh its negative effects on human capital for potential members. Alcohol-related behavior does not explain much of the effects of fraternity membership on either the human capital or social capital effects. These findings suggest that college administrators face significant trade-offs when crafting policies related to Greek life on campus.

- III. Methodology has details
- it's an instrumental variable method paper

Table 5: Fraternity Membership and Grades
study  economics  econometrics  natural-experiment  endo-exo  policy  wonkish  higher-ed  long-term  planning  social-capital  human-capital  labor  gender  cohesion  sociology  social-structure  trivia  cocktail  🎩  effect-size  intervention  compensation  money  education  ethanol  usa  northeast  causation  counterfactual  methodology  demographics  age-generation  race  curvature  regression  convexity-curvature  nonlinearity  cost-benefit  endogenous-exogenous  branches 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution | Springer for Research & Development
To better understand the forces underlying fertility decisions, we look at the forerunners of fertility decline. In Rouen, France, completed fertility dropped between 1640 and 1792 from 7.4 to 4.2 children. We review possible explanations and keep only three: increases in materialism, in women’s empowerment, and in returns to education. The methodology is one of analytic narrative, bringing together descriptive evidence with a theoretical model. We accordingly propose a theory showing that we can discriminate between these explanations by looking at childlessness and its social gradient. An increase in materialism or, under certain conditions, in women’s empowerment, leads to an increase in childlessness, while an increase in the return to education leads to a decrease in childlessness. Looking at the Rouen data, childlessness was clearly on the rise, from 4% in 1640 to 10% at the end of the eighteenth century, which appears to discredit the explanation based on increasing returns to education, at least for this period.
study  sociology  demographics  demographic-transition  fertility  rot  zeitgeist  dysgenics  modernity  microfoundations  phalanges  economics  history  early-modern  broad-econ  cliometrics  europe  gallic  the-great-west-whale  values  ideology  expression-survival  meaningness  the-bones  roots  chart  society  anthropology  cultural-dynamics  biophysical-econ  gender  education  human-capital  natural-experiment  nitty-gritty  intervention  wonkish  explanans  hari-seldon 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve’s Approach
First, if past performance is a reasonable guide to future accuracy, considerable uncertainty surrounds all macroeconomic projections, including those of FOMC participants. Second, different forecasters have similar accuracy. Third, estimates of uncertainty about future real activity and interest rates are now considerably greater than prior to the financial crisis; in contrast, estimates of inflation accuracy have changed little.
pdf  study  economics  macro  meta:prediction  tetlock  accuracy  org:gov  government  wonkish  moments  🎩  volo-avolo 
september 2017 by nhaliday
A simple minded approach – spottedtoad
The Affordable Care Act was a famously complicated bill, but at a very simple level, its intent and effect were to drive more economic activity into the health care sector. Young people and the near poor, in particular, would get more treatment, because the bill would use carrots (the subsidies and Medicaid expansion) and sticks (the mandate) to get them insurance. In fiscal terms, the bill raised taxes on the rich to pay for the subsidies and Medicaid expansion.

So at a basic level, the question for everyone about the bill was (and is), was American economic activity in 2010 insufficiently focused on health care? Not whether any individual deserved more care, but whether in aggregate we were spending enough.

If you read what Peter Orszag or other wonks in the Administration were saying at the time, the intent of the bill was to bend the cost curve and reduce total expenditure by limiting what Medicare reimbursed, using various pilot programs to find out what kinds of treatments were ineffective, get some death panels up and running, and so on.

But that’s bullshit. You made more money available, so more money was going to get spent.

The death panels were real, of course, but they were mostly for young people instead of the old, as it turned out.
ratty  unaffiliated  wonkish  reflection  policy  law  healthcare  class  egalitarianism-hierarchy  monetary-fiscal  taxes  government  obama  summary  explanation  chart  roots  impetus  technocracy 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Does Polarization Imply Poor Representation? A New Perspective on the “Disconnect” Between Politicians and Voters*
Broockman-Ahler 2015

immigration positions under B.2: http://www.dougahler.com/uploads/2/4/6/9/24697799/ahler_broockman_ideological_innocence.pdf#page=42
distribution: http://www.dougahler.com/uploads/2/4/6/9/24697799/ahler_broockman_ideological_innocence.pdf#page=53

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/904024125030756356
https://archive.is/BrnpJ
38% support immediate mass deportation of all illegals (Broockman 2015). This view has zero representation in either house of congress.

Do you understand the GOP play here by the way? I'm genuinely puzzled. Is it a moral conviction? Because it can't be a vote play.
In my view it's a mix of mindless sentimentality, the donor class, and existing in an hermetically sealed ideological bubble.

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/951989543653265408
https://archive.is/ya2sz
cheap labor lobby, public choice (votes), & subversive elites gripped by multiculti zealotry

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/911291455762845696
https://archive.is/dw6OO
In a 2014 radio interview, Paul Ryan was asked if "immigrants from the 3rd world are more or less likely to support conservative policies":
pdf  study  sociology  polisci  politics  poll  values  coalitions  ideology  polarization  usa  2016-election  trump  government  🎩  policy  wonkish  drugs  energy-resources  environment  climate-change  redistribution  welfare-state  arms  law  regulation  healthcare  migration  taxes  gender  sex  sexuality  education  chart  multi  distribution  crosstab  twitter  social  discussion  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  strategy  backup  elite  vampire-squid  roots  speculation  impetus  interview  quotes  commentary  people  track-record  reason  labor  business  capital  social-choice  rent-seeking  rot  culture  unintended-consequences  signaling  religion  theos  christianity  media  propaganda  patho-altruism  self-interest  diversity  culture-war  kumbaya-kult  identity-politics  westminster 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Reckonings; A Rent Affair - The New York Times
Economists who have ventured into the alleged real world often quote Princeton's Alan Blinder, who has formulated what he calls ''Murphy's Law of economic policy'': ''Economists have the least influence on policy where they know the most and are most agreed; they have the most influence on policy where they know the least and disagree most vehemently.'' It's flip and cynical, but it's true.
news  org:rec  krugman  econotariat  aphorism  stylized-facts  social-choice  wonkish  economics  micro  supply-demand  macro  housing  markets  government 
august 2017 by nhaliday
The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade
Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in the US industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize.

Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23737
We find that the China shock increases average welfare but some groups experience losses as high as five times the average gain. Adjusted for plausible measures of inequality aversion, gains in social welfare are positive and only slightly lower than with the standard aggregation.

The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20131578
- Justin R. Pierce, Peter K. Schott
This paper links the sharp drop in US manufacturing employment after 2000 to a change in US trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries more exposed to the change experience greater employment loss, increased imports from China, and higher entry by US importers and foreign-owned Chinese exporters. At the plant level, shifts toward less labor-intensive production and exposure to the policy via input-output linkages also contribute to the decline in employment. Results are robust to other potential explanations of employment loss, and there is no similar reaction in the European Union, where policy did not change.

China-Like Wages Now Part Of U.S. Employment Boom: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/04/china-like-wages-now-part-of-u-s-employment-boom/

U.S. Companies Were Hurt by Trade With China Too: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-12/u-s-companies-were-hurt-by-trade-with-china-too
David Autor and David Dorn are two human wrecking balls smashing the edifice of economics consensus. For decades, the one big thing economists could agree on was that free trade, on balance, was good for the U.S. economy. Now, in a series of papers with a variety of co-authors, Autor and Dorn have shown that the dramatic increase in U.S. trade with China in the 2000s was a different and far more destructive beast -- a phenomenon commonly called the China Shock.

The first of these papers showed that the China Shock left deep and lasting scars on huge swathes of the American workforce. The second demonstrated that the China Shock increased political polarization. Now, together with Gordon Hanson, Pian Shu, and Gary Pisano, the wrecking-ball duo have a third paper, showing that the China Shock decreased U.S. corporate innovation.

Importing Political Polarization?: The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure: http://economics.mit.edu/files/11499
Trade-exposed districts with an initial majority white population or initially in Republican hands became substantially more likely to elect a conservative Republican, while trade-exposed districts with an initial majority-minority population or initially in Democratic hands became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat.

The China Shock was Matched by a China Boom: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/01/china-shock-matched-china-boom.html
Our results fit the textbook story that job opportunities in exports make up for jobs lost in import-competing industries, or nearly so. Once we consider the export side, the negative employment effect of trade is much smaller than is implied in the previous literature. Although our analysis finds net job losses in the manufacturing sector for the US, there are remarkable job gains in services, suggesting that international trade has an impact on the labour market according to comparative advantage. The US has comparative advantages in services, so that overall trade led to higher employment through the increased demand for service jobs.
pdf  study  economics  labor  econometrics  autor  china  asia  trade  nationalism-globalism  intervention  inequality  compensation  🎩  trends  zeitgeist  heavy-industry  automation  multi  distribution  usa  macro  noahpinion  econotariat  contrarianism  politics  trump  europe  current-events  2016-election  postmortem  input-output  news  org:mag  org:biz  org:bv  business  innovation  links  summary  list  industrial-org  wonkish  roots  polarization  article  org:lite  class  class-warfare  chart  political-econ  polisci  government  tribalism  sociology  cost-benefit  unintended-consequences  marginal-rev  definite-planning  the-world-is-just-atoms  amazon  winner-take-all  malaise  gnosis-logos  endogenous-exogenous 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Divorce demography - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divorce_in_the_United_States#Rates_of_divorce
https://psychcentral.com/lib/the-myth-of-the-high-rate-of-divorce/

Marriage update: less divorce, and less sex: https://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2017/04/14/marriage-update-less-divorce-and-less-sex/

Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13524-013-0270-9
Divorce rates have doubled over the past two decades among persons over age 35. Among the youngest couples, however, divorce rates are stable or declining. If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the leveling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage.
sociology  methodology  demographics  social-science  social-structure  life-history  sex  wiki  reference  pro-rata  metrics  longitudinal  intricacy  multi  org:sci  wonkish  sexuality  trends  data  analysis  general-survey  study  history  mostly-modern  usa  selection  age-generation  chart 
august 2017 by nhaliday
The Conservation of Coercion - American Affairs Journal
The two faces of the Kapauku Papuans, and the way their anarchist-friendly political order rested on a deeply illiberal social order, neatly express how Technology and the End of Authority, by the Cato Institute scholar Jason Kuznicki, is both an interesting and a maddening book. Kuznicki states that he was inspired to write the book when he wondered why so many classical political philosophers, despite their disagreements over a vast number of topics, nevertheless all believed the nature and proper role of the state was the most important question concerning the proper organization of human affairs. Even libertarian and anarchist political theorists obsess about states, filling books with discussions of when and why we ought to reject them as illegitimate. The nature of their opposition implicitly concedes that the state, its value and purpose, is the central question for us to grapple with.

In contrast, Kuznicki invites us, if not to ignore the state, then at least to banish it from the forefront of our thinking. He asks us to consider states as just one tool among many that human societies have deployed to solve various sorts of problems. The state is neither God nor the Devil, but something pragmatic and unromantic—like a sewage system, or a town dump. Yes, we want it to function smoothly lest the place start to stink, but good taste demands that we not focus obsessively on its operation. Statecraft, like sanitation engineering, is a dirty job that somebody has to do, but unlike sanitation engineering it should also be a mildly embarrassing one. The notion that political means are a locus of the good, or that the state is imbued with the highest purposes of society, is as ridiculous as the notion that a city exists for its sewers rather than vice versa. So, Kuznicki suggests, we should treat anybody attempting to derive the correct or legitimate purposes of the state with the same skepticism with which we would view somebody waxing philosophical about a trash compactor. The real center of society, the topics worth debating and pondering, are all the other institutions—like markets, churches, sports teams, scientific schools, and families—whose existence the correct operation of the state supports.

...

The second implication of Kuznicki’s statecraft-as-engineering is that any determination about the proper role and behavior of government must remain unsettled not only by historical and cultural context, but also by the ambient level of technology. Kuznicki explores this at some length. He does not mean to make the common argument that the particular set of technologies deployed within a society can be more or less conducive to particular forms of government—as mass democracy might be encouraged by technologies of communication and travel, or as centralized autocracy might tend to arise in societies relying on large-scale irrigation for intensive agriculture. Rather, if the state is a tool for solving an array of otherwise intractable social problems, Kuznicki surmises, a newly discovered technological solution to such a problem could remove it from the state’s set of concerns—perhaps permanently.

...

What are the qualities of a society which make it more or less likely to be able to solve these dilemmas as they come up? Social scientists call societies that support commitment and enforcement mechanisms sufficient to overcome such dilemmas “high trust.” Some sources of social trust are mundane: for instance, it seems to make a big difference for a society to simply have a high enough median wealth that someone isn’t liable to be ruined if he or she takes a gamble on trusting a stranger and ends up getting cheated. Others are fuzzier: shared participation in churches, clubs, and social organizations can also significantly increase the degree of solidarity and trust in a community. Thinkers from Tocqueville to Robert Nisbet have pointed out the ways in which the ascendant state makes war upon and seeks to displace the “little platoons” of civil society. It is not well appreciated today that the reverse is also true: a “thick” culture rooted in shared norms and shared history can make the state less necessary by helping to raise the ambient level of social trust above whatever threshold makes it possible for citizens to organize and discipline themselves without state compulsion.

...

The story of the diamontaires ends with the whole system, private courts and all, falling apart following an influx of non-Hasidic actors into the New York diamond industry. But lack of trust and solidarity aren’t just problems if we want private courts. Yes, a very high degree of social trust can help to replace or displace state institutions, but any amount of trust tends to make governments more efficient and less corrupt. It isn’t a coincidence that many of the most successful governments on earth, whether efficient and well-run welfare states on the Scandinavian model or free-market havens boasting low taxes and few regulations, have been small, tight-knit, often culturally and linguistically homogeneous. Conversely, history’s most successful multiethnic polities have tended to be empires or confederations with a very high degree of provincial or local autonomy. Government is not a problem that scales gracefully: certainly not with number of citizens, but perhaps also not with number of constituent cultures. Those who love cosmopolitanism (among whom I count myself) talk a great deal about the incidental benefits it brings, and a great deal less about its drawbacks. I and other cosmopolitans love to exalt the dynamism that comes from diversity and the way it can help a society avoid falling into complacency. We are less willing to discuss the tiny invisible tax on everything and everybody that reduced social trust imposes, and the ways in which that will tend to make a nation more sclerotic.

In the absence of trust, every private commercial or social interaction becomes just a little bit more expensive, a little bit less efficient, and a little bit less likely to happen at all. Individuals are more cautious in their dealings with strangers, businesses are less likely to extend credit, everybody is a little more uncertain about the future, and people adjust their investment decisions accordingly. Individuals and businesses spend more money on bike locks, security systems, and real estate they perceive to be “safe,” rather than on the consumption or investment they would otherwise prefer. Critics of capitalism frequently observe that a liberal economic order depends upon, and sometimes cannibalizes, precapitalist sources of loyalty and affection. What if the same is true of political freedom more generally?

Some might object that even to consider such a thing is to give in to the forces of bigotry. But the whole point of taking a flinty-eyed engineer’s approach to state-building is that we don’t have to like the constraints we are working with, we just have to deal with them. The human preference for “people like us”—whether that means coreligionists or people who share our musical tastes, and whether we choose to frame it as bigotry or as game-theoretic rationality—is a stubborn, resilient reality. Perhaps in the future some advanced genetic engineering or psychological conditioning will change that. For now we need to recognize and deal with the fact that if we wish to have cosmopolitanism, we need to justify it on robust philosophical grounds, with full awareness of the costs as well as the benefits that it brings to bear on every member of society.
news  org:mag  org:popup  right-wing  books  review  summary  critique  letters  politics  polisci  government  leviathan  coordination  GT-101  cooperate-defect  schelling  civil-liberty  technology  trivia  cocktail  history  early-modern  disease  parasites-microbiome  medicine  cryptocurrency  crypto-anarchy  smart-contracts  trust  cohesion  social-capital  civic  religion  judaism  theos  markets  outcome-risk  info-econ  n-factor  community  homo-hetero  putnam-like  diversity  tribalism  institutions  broad-econ  incentives  insight  🎩  anarcho-tyranny  capitalism  security  essay  straussian  society  anthropology  microfoundations  order-disorder  authoritarianism  polis  conquest-empire  cost-benefit  sulla  wonkish  counter-revolution  nascent-state  madisonian  cultural-dynamics  techtariat  organizing  unaffiliated  the-watchers  hari-seldon 
august 2017 by nhaliday
The Scholar's Stage: There Is No "Right Side" of History
Open celebrations of slavery like the sort Hammond offered would not become common until the 1840s. By the eve of the Civil War they were the only "politically correct" things a politician from the Deep South could say about slavery. I refer those interested in the story of how slavery's most radical defenders were able to manipulate and mold southern society and culture until political elites across the region championed slavery as a positive good worth dying for to Freehling's book. The point I would like to make here is a bit more basic. The American south of 1860 was more racist, more despotic, and less tolerant of traditional Americans liberties like freedom of speech than was the American south 1790. If you had pulled Jefferson's grandchildren to the side in 1855 and asked them what the "right side" of history was, they would probably reply that it was the abolitionists, not the slavers, who were on the wrong side of it.

There is an obvious lesson here for all politicians and activists inclined to talk about "the right side of history" today. History has no direction discernible to mankind. Surveying current cultural trends is a foolish way to predict the future and the judgments of posterity are far too fickle to guide our actions in the present.
unaffiliated  broad-econ  wonkish  history  early-modern  pre-ww2  revolution  war  usa  ideology  politics  morality  culture-war  info-dynamics  zeitgeist  regularizer  aphorism  rhetoric  stories  parable  meta:prediction  track-record  reflection  metabuch  reason 
august 2017 by nhaliday
The Government is the Largest Source of University Funding | Free By 50
wonkish  data  visualization  let-me-see  higher-ed  academia  money  variance-components  distribution  monetary-fiscal  local-global  government  multi  usa  org:edu  org:ngo  chart  roots  org:lite  counter-revolution  class-warfare  nascent-state  pdf  white-paper  org:data  analysis  objektbuch  harvard  princeton  elite  stanford 
july 2017 by nhaliday
Dead Souls: The Denationalization of the American Elite
- Huntington, 2004

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/889953571650891776

The views of the general public on issues of national identity differ significantly from those of many elites. The public, overall, is concerned with physical security but also with societal security, which involves the sustainability--within acceptable conditions for evolution--of existing patterns of language, culture, association, religion and national identity. For many elites, these concerns are secondary to participating in the global economy, supporting international trade and migration, strengthening international institutions, promoting American values abroad, and encouraging minority identities and cultures at home. The central distinction between the public and elites is not isolationism versus internationalism, but nationalism versus cosmopolitanism.

...

Estimated to number about 20 million in 2000, of whom 40 percent were American, this elite is expected to double in size by 2010. Comprising fewer than 4 percent of the American people, these transnationalists have little need for national loyalty, view national boundaries as obstacles that thankfully are vanishing, and see national governments as residues from the past whose only useful function is to facilitate the elite's global operations. In the coming years, one corporation executive confidently predicted, "the only people who will care about national boundaries are politicians."

...

In August 1804, Walter Scott finished writing The Lay of the Last Minstrel. Therein, he
asked whether

"Breathes there the man with soul so dead
Who never to himself hath said:
'This is my own, my native Land?'
Whose heart hath ne'er within him burned
As home his footsteps he hath turned, . . .
From wandering on a foreign strand?"

A contemporary answer to Scott's question is: Yes, the number of dead souls is small
but growing among America's business, professional, intellectual and academic elites.
pdf  essay  rhetoric  huntington  big-peeps  statesmen  org:davos  nationalism-globalism  migration  identity-politics  culture-war  vampire-squid  elite  world  universalism-particularism  politics  ideology  morality  s:*  attaq  corporation  economics  efficiency  trade  government  usa  westminster  crooked  🎩  polisci  foreign-policy  anglosphere  multi  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  quotes  track-record  poetry  old-anglo  aristos  aphorism  duty  hate  meta:rhetoric  poll  values  polarization  clinton  gilens-page  trust  cohesion  institutions  academia  higher-ed  california  the-west  class  class-warfare  trends  wonkish  great-powers  democracy  latin-america  islam  MENA  conquest-empire  rot  zeitgeist  civic  religion  christianity  theos  anomie  history  mostly-modern  early-modern  pre-ww2  culture  britain  tradition  prejudice  madisonian  domestication  nascent-state  tribalism  us-them  interests  impetus  decentralized  reason  protestant-catholic  the-bones  the-founding  heterodox 
july 2017 by nhaliday
The Scholar's Stage: Everything is Worse in China
My time here has thus given me a rare vantage point to judge many of the claims made over the course of these campaigns. In few places is this sort of outside perspective more useful than when judging the claims of an American jeremiad. Jeremiading is a fine art. Its practitioners hail from lands both left and right, but my sympathies lie with the cultural traditionalists. You know the type. In America they find little but a shallow husk. For some it is the husk of a nation once great; for others it is the decaying remains of Western civilization itself. Few of these gloom-filled minds deny that wonders have marked their days on this earth. It is not that advances do not happen. It is just that each celebrated advance masks hundreds of more quiet destructions. These laments for worlds gone by are poignant; the best are truly beautiful. The best of the best, however, do not just lament. Every one of their portraits of the past is a depiction of a future—or more properly, a way of living worth devoting a future to.

I have read a few of these books in 2017. The best of these (both for its lyricism and for the demands it places on the intellect) is Anthony Esolen's newest book, Out of the Ashes: Rebuilding American Culture. This blog is not the place for a full review. I plan to write a proper review for it and a few of the other recently published books of this type for a less personal publication than the Scholar's Stage. Here I will just share one of my strongest reactions to the book—a thought that occurred again and again as I drifted through its pages. Esolen presents a swarm of maladies sickening American society, ranging from a generation of children suffocated by helicopter parenting to a massive state bureaucracy openly hostile to virtuous living. My reaction to each of his carefully drawn portraits was the same: this problem is even worse in China.

Are you worried about political correctness gone awry, weaponized by mediocrities to defame the worthy, suffocating truth, holding honest inquiry hostage through fear and terror? That problem is worse in China.

Do you lament the loss of beauty in public life? Its loss as a cherished ideal of not just art and oratory but in the building of homes, chapels, bridges, and buildings? Its disappearance in the comings-and-goings of everyday life? That problem is worse in China.

Do you detest a rich, secluded, and self-satisfied cultural elite that despises, distrusts, and derides the uneducated and unwashed masses not lucky enough to live in one of their chosen urban hubs? That problem is worse in China.

Are you sickened by crass materialism? Wealth chased, gained, and wasted for nothing more than vain display? Are you oppressed by the sight of children denied the joys of childhood, guided from one carefully structured resume-builder to the next by parents eternally hovering over their shoulders? Do you dread a hulking, bureaucratized leviathan, unaccountable to the people it serves, and so captured by special interests that even political leaders cannot control it? Are you worried by a despotic national government that plays king-maker in the economic sphere and crushes all opposition to its social programs into the dust? Do you fear a culture actively hostile to the free exercise of religion? Hostility that not only permeates through every layer of society, but is backed by the awesome power of the state?

These too are all worse in China.

Only on one item from Esolen's catalogue of decline can American society plausibly be described as more self-destructive than China's. China has not hopped headlong down the rabbit's hole of gender-bending. The Chinese have thus far proved impervious to this nonsense. But it would not be meet to conclude from this that Chinese society's treatment of sex is healthier than the West's.

https://gnxp.nofe.me/2017/07/25/on-the-precipice-of-the-kali-yuga/
interesting comments:
https://gnxp.nofe.me/2017/07/25/on-the-precipice-of-the-kali-yuga/comment-page-1/#comment-3091
https://gnxp.nofe.me/2017/07/25/on-the-precipice-of-the-kali-yuga/comment-page-1/#comment-3093
https://gnxp.nofe.me/2017/07/25/on-the-precipice-of-the-kali-yuga/comment-page-1/#comment-3109
https://gnxp.nofe.me/2017/07/25/on-the-precipice-of-the-kali-yuga/comment-page-1/#comment-3130
Re: authoritarianism and all that. I sometimes describe modern China as “slouching towards totalitarianism.” Bill Bishop descried it recently as a “leninist panopticon.”

(e.g. here http://cmp.hku.hk/2017/07/20/big-data-big-concerns/ here https://amp.ft.com/content/5ec7093c-6e06-11e7-b9c7-15af748b60d0 and here https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d676a4e3267444e/share_p.html# ).

But I think we need to dispense with some illusions. The elites of the CPC are unrelentingly hostile towards the West. They are King Goujian. They won’t be satisfied until China has displaced the United States as the world’s super power and they have the power to control the entire Chinese diaspora. (For those not familiar with the last bit see here http://www.smh.com.au/interactive/2017/chinas-operation-australia/soft-power.html and http://insidestory.org.au/beijings-guoqing-versus-australias-way-of-life ). On the long term will not tolerate an India or Japan that is not subservient, and they are not afraid to interfere with protected liberties in Western countries as long as Chinese-speakers are involved. For the most part they get away with it, as the censorship and intimidation they exercise in Western China-towns is all done in the Chinese language.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/01/06/tencent_s_wechat_worldwide_internet_users_are_voluntarily_submitting_to.html
In the last few years, usage of the mobile messaging app WeChat (Weixin), developed by Chinese corporation Tencent, has skyrocketed not only inside China but also around the world. For 500 million mobile users in mainland China, WeChat is one of the only options for mobile messaging available, due to frequent or permanent blockage of apps like WhatsApp, Viber, Line, Twitter, and Facebook. For more than 100 million mobile users in the rest of the world, a highly polished user experience, celebrity marketing, and the promise of “free calls and texts” has proven to be nearly irresistible for far-flung members of the Chinese diaspora. This global user base also includes the Tibetan exile diaspora, who through WeChat have become connected on both sides of the Himalayas in near real time like never before.

Beijing Hinders Free Speech in America: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/26/opinion/beijing-free-speech-america.html
unaffiliated  broad-econ  rhetoric  critique  comparison  trends  usa  china  asia  rot  zeitgeist  religion  christianity  theos  morality  values  the-great-west-whale  identity-politics  class  elite  vampire-squid  gender  sex  sinosphere  orient  occident  integrity  multi  gnxp  scitariat  commentary  civilization  counter-revolution  poast  discussion  crooked  capital  finance  cycles  cynicism-idealism  truth  absolute-relative  expansionism  sulla  honor  pessimism  wonkish  diaspora  data  scale  internet  mobile  intel  news  org:lite  world  org:rec  higher-ed  migration  nationalism-globalism  vitality 
july 2017 by nhaliday
« earlier      
per page:    204080120160

bundles : dismalityframeguvnor

related tags

-_-  2016-election  80000-hours  :/  ability-competence  abortion-contraception-embryo  absolute-relative  academia  accelerationism  accuracy  acemoglu  adversarial  advertising  advice  aesthetics  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  aggregator  aging  agri-mindset  agriculture  ai  akrasia  albion  alesina  alien-character  alignment  allodium  alt-inst  altruism  ama  amazon  american-nations  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anarcho-tyranny  anglo  anglosphere  announcement  anomie  anonymity  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  api  apple  applicability-prereqs  applications  arbitrage  archaeology  architecture  aristos  arms  arrows  article  ascetic  asia  assimilation  assortative-mating  atmosphere  attaq  attention  audio  authoritarianism  autism  automation  autor  aversion  axelrod  axioms  backup  barons  bayesian  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  being-right  benevolence  best-practices  betting  bias-variance  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  big-yud  bio  biodet  bioinformatics  biophysical-econ  biotech  bitcoin  blockchain  blog  blowhards  books  bootstraps  borjas  bounded-cognition  branches  brands  brexit  britain  broad-econ  business  business-models  c:*  c:**  c:***  california  canada  cancer  candidate-gene  canon  capital  capitalism  carcinisation  career  cartoons  causation  cause  censorship  chan  chapman  charity  chart  checklists  chemistry  chicago  china  christianity  christopher-lasch  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  cjones-like  clarity  class  class-warfare  classic  climate-change  clinton  cliometrics  clown-world  coalitions  cocktail  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  collaboration  comics  coming-apart  commentary  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complement-substitute  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  computer-vision  concept  conceptual-vocab  conference  confluence  confounding  confucian  confusion  conquest-empire  consumerism  context  contracts  contradiction  contrarianism  control  convergence  convexity-curvature  cooking  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  counterfactual  courage  course  cracker-econ  creative  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  critique  crooked  crosstab  crypto  crypto-anarchy  cryptocurrency  cultural-dynamics  culture  culture-war  curiosity  current-events  curvature  cybernetics  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  darwinian  data  data-science  database  dataset  dataviz  death  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  definition  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  dennett  density  dental  descriptive  deterrence  developing-world  developmental  diaspora  dignity  dimensionality  diogenes  direct-indirect  direction  dirty-hands  discipline  discovery  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  divergence  diversity  domestication  dominant-minority  douthatish  drama  driving  dropbox  drugs  duty  dynamic  dysgenics  early-modern  earth  easterly  eastern-europe  ecology  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  eden-heaven  education  EEA  effect-size  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  EGT  elections  electromag  elite  embedded-cognition  embeddings  embodied  embodied-cognition  emergent  emotion  empirical  ems  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  entertainment  entrepreneurialism  environment  environmental-effects  envy  epidemiology  epistemic  equilibrium  ergodic  eric-kaufmann  error  essay  estimate  ethanol  ethical-algorithms  ethics  ethnocentrism  ethnography  EU  europe  events  evidence  evidence-based  evolution  evopsych  examples  exit-voice  expansionism  expectancy  experiment  expert  expert-experience  explanans  explanation  exploratory  expression-survival  externalities  extrema  facebook  faq  farmers-and-foragers  fashun  FDA  fermi  fertility  feudal  fiction  field-study  film  finance  fitness  fitsci  fixed-point  flexibility  fluid  flux-stasis  flynn  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  formal-values  free-riding  frontier  fungibility-liquidity  futurism  gallic  game-theory  games  garett-jones  gbooks  GCTA  gedanken  gelman  gender  gender-diff  general-survey  generalization  genetic-load  genetics  genomics  geoengineering  geography  geopolitics  germanic  giants  gibbon  gilens-page  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnxp  google  gotchas  government  grad-school  gray-econ  great-powers  gregory-clark  group-level  group-selection  growth-econ  GT-101  guide  guilt-shame  GWAS  gwern  GxE  h2o  hacker  haidt  hanson  hanushek  happy-sad  hard-tech  hari-seldon  harvard  hate  health  healthcare  heavy-industry  henrich  heterodox  heuristic  hi-order-bits  hidden-motives  high-dimension  high-variance  higher-ed  history  hive-mind  hmm  hn  homepage  homo-hetero  honor  houellebecq  housing  howto  hsu  huge-data-the-biggest  human-bean  human-capital  humility  huntington  hypochondria  hypocrisy  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  idk  iidness  illusion  impact  impetus  impro  incentives  increase-decrease  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  info-dynamics  info-econ  info-foraging  infrastructure  init  innovation  input-output  insight  instinct  institutions  insurance  integration-extension  integrity  intel  intelligence  interdisciplinary  interests  internet  intervention  interview  intricacy  invariance  investigative-journo  investing  iq  iran  iraq-syria  iron-age  is-ought  islam  israel  isteveish  japan  jobs  journos-pundits  judaism  justice  kinship  kissinger  knowledge  korea  krugman  kumbaya-kult  labor  land  language  large-factor  larry-summers  latin-america  law  leadership  leaks  learning  lee-kuan-yew  left-wing  legacy  legibility  len:long  len:short  lens  lesswrong  let-me-see  letters  leviathan  life-history  limits  liner-notes  linguistics  links  list  literature  lived-experience  lmao  local-global  lol  long-short-run  long-term  longevity  longform  longitudinal  love-hate  low-hanging  lower-bounds  lurid  machiavelli  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  male-variability  malthus  management  managerial-state  manifolds  map-territory  maps  marginal  marginal-rev  market-failure  market-power  markets  martial  matching  math  math.DS  mathtariat  matrix-factorization  maxim-gun  meaningness  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memes(ew)  MENA  mena4  meta-analysis  meta:medicine  meta:prediction  meta:rhetoric  meta:war  metabolic  metabuch  metameta  methodology  metric-space  metrics  micro  microfoundations  midwest  migrant-crisis  migration  military  missing-heritability  mobile  mobility  model-class  models  modernity  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  moloch  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  mood-affiliation  morality  mostly-modern  multi  murray  music  musk  mutation  mystic  myth  n-factor  narrative  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  near-far  neocons  network-structure  neuro  neuro-nitgrit  new-religion  news  nietzschean  nihil  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  nlp  no-go  noahpinion  noble-lie  noblesse-oblige  nonlinearity  nordic  north-weingast-like  northeast  novelty  nuclear  null-result  nyc  obama  obesity  objective-measure  objektbuch  occident  oceans  offense-defense  old-anglo  open-closed  operational  opioids  optimate  optimism  optimization  order-disorder  ORFE  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bv  org:data  org:davos  org:econlib  org:edge  org:edu  org:euro  org:fin  org:foreign  org:gov  org:health  org:junk  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:mat  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  org:theos  organization  organizing  orient  orwellian  oscillation  other-xtian  outcome-risk  outliers  p2p  p:null  paleocon  parable  parasites-microbiome  parenting  pareto  passive-investing  paternal-age  path-dependence  patho-altruism  patience  paul-romer  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  pennsylvania  people  personal-finance  personality  persuasion  pessimism  phalanges  pharma  phd  philosophy  phys-energy  physics  pic  piketty  pinker  piracy  planning  play  plots  poast  podcast  poetry  polanyi-marx  polarization  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  poll  pop-diff  pop-structure  population  population-genetics  populism  postmortem  postrat  power  pragmatic  pre-ww2  prediction  prediction-markets  preference-falsification  prejudice  prepping  preprint  presentation  princeton  priors-posteriors  privacy  pro-rata  problem-solving  procrastination  prof  profile  programming  progression  project  proofs  propaganda  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  protocol  prudence  pseudoE  psych-architecture  psychiatry  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  public-health  putnam-like  q-n-a  qra  QTL  quality  quantitative-qualitative  quixotic  quiz  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  rant  rationality  ratty  reading  real-nominal  realness  realpolitik  reason  recent-selection  recommendations  recruiting  red-queen  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflection  regional-scatter-plots  regression  regression-to-mean  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement  religion  rent-seeking  replication  reputation  responsibility  retention  revealed-preference  review  revolution  rhetoric  rhythm  right-wing  rindermann-thompson  risk  rock  roots  rot  russia  s-factor  s:*  s:**  sampling-bias  sanctity-degradation  sapiens  scale  scaling-up  schelling  science  science-anxiety  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  scott-sumner  search  securities  security  selection  self-control  self-interest  self-report  sentiment  serene  sex  sexuality  shakespeare  shift  sib-study  signal-noise  signaling  signum  similarity  simulation  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  sky  sleuthin  slides  slippery-slope  smart-contracts  social  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  society  sociology  socs-and-mops  software  solid-study  space  spatial  speaking  spearhead  speculation  speedometer  spengler  spock  sports  spreading  ssc  stagnation  stanford  startups  stat-power  state-of-art  statesmen  stats  status  steel-man  stereotypes  stock-flow  stories  strategy  straussian  stream  street-fighting  stress  study  studying  stylized-facts  subculture  success  sulla  summary  supply-demand  survey  sv  symmetry  synthesis  systematic-ad-hoc  tactics  tails  talks  taxes  teaching  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  telos-atelos  temperance  terrorism  tetlock  texas  the-basilisk  the-bones  the-classics  the-founding  the-great-west-whale  the-monster  the-self  the-south  the-trenches  the-watchers  the-west  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theos  thick-thin  thiel  things  thinking  threat-modeling  thucydides  time  time-preference  time-series  time-use  tip-of-tongue  tocqueville  todo  tolkienesque  toolkit  tools  top-n  toxoplasmosis  toys  traces  track-record  tracker  trade  tradecraft  tradeoffs  tradition  transportation  travel  trends  tribalism  trivia  troll  trump  trust  truth  tumblr  tv  twin-study  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  universalism-particularism  urban  urban-rural  us-them  usa  utopia-dystopia  vague  values  vampire-squid  variance-components  venture  via:rseymour  video  virginia-DC  virtu  visual-understanding  visualization  visuo  vitality  volo-avolo  von-neumann  vr  walls  walter-scheidel  war  washington  water  wealth  wealth-of-nations  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  wiki  wild-ideas  winner-take-all  wire-guided  wisdom  within-group  within-without  woah  wonkish  working-stiff  world  world-war  wtf  X-not-about-Y  yarvin  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎩  🐸  👽  🔬  🤖 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: