nhaliday + white-paper + nuclear   6

Information Processing: US Needs a National AI Strategy: A Sputnik Moment?
FT podcasts on US-China competition and AI: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/05/ft-podcasts-on-us-china-competition-and.html

A new recommended career path for effective altruists: China specialist: https://80000hours.org/articles/china-careers/
Our rough guess is that it would be useful for there to be at least ten people in the community with good knowledge in this area within the next few years.

By “good knowledge” we mean they’ve spent at least 3 years studying these topics and/or living in China.

We chose ten because that would be enough for several people to cover each of the major areas listed (e.g. 4 within AI, 2 within biorisk, 2 within foreign relations, 1 in another area).

AI Policy and Governance Internship: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ai-policy-governance-internship/

https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/deciphering-chinas-ai-dream/
https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Deciphering_Chinas_AI-Dream.pdf
Deciphering China’s AI Dream
The context, components, capabilities, and consequences of
China’s strategy to lead the world in AI

Europe’s AI delusion: https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-europes-ai-delusion/
Brussels is failing to grasp threats and opportunities of artificial intelligence.
By BRUNO MAÇÃES

When the computer program AlphaGo beat the Chinese professional Go player Ke Jie in a three-part match, it didn’t take long for Beijing to realize the implications.

If algorithms can already surpass the abilities of a master Go player, it can’t be long before they will be similarly supreme in the activity to which the classic board game has always been compared: war.

As I’ve written before, the great conflict of our time is about who can control the next wave of technological development: the widespread application of artificial intelligence in the economic and military spheres.

...

If China’s ambitions sound plausible, that’s because the country’s achievements in deep learning are so impressive already. After Microsoft announced that its speech recognition software surpassed human-level language recognition in October 2016, Andrew Ng, then head of research at Baidu, tweeted: “We had surpassed human-level Chinese recognition in 2015; happy to see Microsoft also get there for English less than a year later.”

...

One obvious advantage China enjoys is access to almost unlimited pools of data. The machine-learning technologies boosting the current wave of AI expansion are as good as the amount of data they can use. That could be the number of people driving cars, photos labeled on the internet or voice samples for translation apps. With 700 or 800 million Chinese internet users and fewer data protection rules, China is as rich in data as the Gulf States are in oil.

How can Europe and the United States compete? They will have to be commensurately better in developing algorithms and computer power. Sadly, Europe is falling behind in these areas as well.

...

Chinese commentators have embraced the idea of a coming singularity: the moment when AI surpasses human ability. At that point a number of interesting things happen. First, future AI development will be conducted by AI itself, creating exponential feedback loops. Second, humans will become useless for waging war. At that point, the human mind will be unable to keep pace with robotized warfare. With advanced image recognition, data analytics, prediction systems, military brain science and unmanned systems, devastating wars might be waged and won in a matter of minutes.

...

The argument in the new strategy is fully defensive. It first considers how AI raises new threats and then goes on to discuss the opportunities. The EU and Chinese strategies follow opposite logics. Already on its second page, the text frets about the legal and ethical problems raised by AI and discusses the “legitimate concerns” the technology generates.

The EU’s strategy is organized around three concerns: the need to boost Europe’s AI capacity, ethical issues and social challenges. Unfortunately, even the first dimension quickly turns out to be about “European values” and the need to place “the human” at the center of AI — forgetting that the first word in AI is not “human” but “artificial.”

https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/983057591298351104
https://archive.is/m3Njh
US military: "LOL, China thinks it's going to be a major player in AI, but we've got all the top AI researchers. You guys will help us develop weapons, right?"

US AI researchers: "No."

US military: "But... maybe just a computer vision app."

US AI researchers: "NO."

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/4/17196818/ai-boycot-killer-robots-kaist-university-hanwha
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/technology/google-letter-ceo-pentagon-project.html
https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/981685030417326080
https://archive.is/3wbHm
AI-risk was a mistake.
hsu  scitariat  commentary  video  presentation  comparison  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  frontier  technology  science  ai  speedometer  innovation  google  barons  deepgoog  stories  white-paper  strategy  migration  iran  human-capital  corporation  creative  alien-character  military  human-ml  nationalism-globalism  security  investing  government  games  deterrence  defense  nuclear  arms  competition  risk  ai-control  musk  optimism  multi  news  org:mag  europe  EU  80000-hours  effective-altruism  proposal  article  realness  offense-defense  war  biotech  altruism  language  foreign-lang  philosophy  the-great-west-whale  enhancement  foreign-policy  geopolitics  anglo  jobs  career  planning  hmm  travel  charity  tech  intel  media  teaching  tutoring  russia  india  miri-cfar  pdf  automation  class  labor  polisci  society  trust  n-factor  corruption  leviathan  ethics  authoritarianism  individualism-collectivism  revolution  economics  inequality  civic  law  regulation  data  scale  pro-rata  capital  zero-positive-sum  cooperate-defect  distribution  time-series  tre 
february 2018 by nhaliday
National Defense Strategy of the United States of America
National Defense Strategy released with clear priority: Stay ahead of Russia and China: https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2018/01/19/national-defense-strategy-released-with-clear-priority-stay-ahead-of-russia-and-china/

https://twitter.com/AngloRemnant/status/985341571410341893
https://archive.is/RhBdG
https://archive.is/wRzRN
A saner allocation of US 'defense' funds would be something like 10% nuclear trident, 10% border patrol, & spend the rest innoculating against cyber & biological attacks.
and since the latter 2 are hopeless, just refund 80% of the defense budget.
--
Monopoly on force at sea is arguably worthwhile.
--
Given the value of the US market to any would-be adversary, id be willing to roll the dice & let it ride.
--
subs are part of the triad, surface ships are sitting ducks this day and age
--
But nobody does sink them, precisely because of the monopoly on force. It's a path-dependent equilibirum where (for now) no other actor can reap the benefits of destabilizing the monopoly, and we're probably drastically underestimating the ramifications if/when it goes away.
--
can lethal autonomous weapon systems get some
pdf  white-paper  org:gov  usa  government  trump  policy  nascent-state  foreign-policy  realpolitik  authoritarianism  china  asia  russia  antidemos  military  defense  world  values  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  democracy  chart  politics  current-events  sulla  nuclear  arms  deterrence  strategy  technology  sky  oceans  korea  communism  innovation  india  europe  EU  MENA  multi  org:foreign  war  great-powers  thucydides  competition  twitter  social  discussion  backup  gnon  🐸  markets  trade  nationalism-globalism  equilibrium  game-theory  tactics  top-n  hi-order-bits  security  hacker  biotech  terrorism  disease  parasites-microbiome  migration  walls  internet 
january 2018 by nhaliday
There’s good eating on one of those | West Hunter
Recently, Y.-H. Percival Zhang and colleagues demonstrated a method of converting cellulose into starch and glucose. Zhang thinks that it can be scaled up into an effective industrial process, one that could produce a thousand calories of starch for less than a dollar from cellulosic waste. This would be a good thing. It’s not just that are 7 billion people – the problem is that we have hardly any food reserves (about 74 days at last report).

Prepare for Nuclear Winter: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/09/prepare-for-nuclear-winter.html
If a 1km asteroid were to hit the Earth, the dust it kicked up would block most sunlight over most of the world for 3 to 10 years. There’s only a one in a million chance of that happening per year, however. Whew. However, there’s a ten times bigger chance that a super volcano, such as the one hiding under Yellowstone, might explode, for a similar result. And I’d put the chance of a full scale nuclear war at ten to one hundred times larger than that: one in ten thousand to one thousand per year. Over a century, that becomes a one to ten percent chance. Not whew; grimace instead.

There is a substantial chance that a full scale nuclear war would produce a nuclear winter, with a similar effect: sunlight is blocked for 3-10 years or more. Yes, there are good criticisms of the more extreme forecasts, but there’s still a big chance the sun gets blocked in a full scale nuclear war, and there’s even a substantial chance of the same result in a mere regional war, where only 100 nukes explode (the world now has 15,000 nukes).

...

Yeah, probably a few people live on, and so humanity doesn’t go extinct. But the only realistic chance most of us have of surviving in this scenario is to use our vast industrial and scientific abilities to make food. We actually know of many plausible ways to make more than enough food to feed everyone for ten years, even with no sunlight. And even if big chunks of the world economy are in shambles. But for that to work, we must preserve enough social order to make use of at least the core of key social institutions.

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/09/mre-futures-to-not-starve.html

Nuclear War Survival Skills: http://oism.org/nwss/nwss.pdf
Updated and Expanded 1987 Edition

Nuclear winter: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter

Yellowstone supervolcano may blow sooner than thought — and could wipe out life on the planet: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2017/10/12/yellowstone-supervolcano-may-blow-sooner-than-thought-could-wipe-out-life-planet/757337001/
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2017/10/12/yellowstone-supervolcano-could-blow-faster-than-thought-destroy-all-mankind.html
http://fortune.com/2017/10/12/yellowstone-park-supervolcano/
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/supervolcano-blast-would-blanket-us-ash
west-hunter  discussion  study  commentary  bio  food  energy-resources  technology  risk  the-world-is-just-atoms  agriculture  wild-ideas  malthus  objektbuch  threat-modeling  scitariat  scale  biophysical-econ  allodium  nihil  prepping  ideas  dirty-hands  magnitude  multi  ratty  hanson  planning  nuclear  arms  deterrence  institutions  alt-inst  securities  markets  pdf  org:gov  white-paper  survival  time  earth  war  wiki  reference  environment  sky  news  org:lite  hmm  idk  org:biz  org:sci  simulation  maps  usa  geoengineering  insurance 
march 2017 by nhaliday
DOD FOIA
I think some of these are "good enough for govt work"..., but definitely some interesting stuff, especially about China

nukes:
Litigation Release - Assessing Nuclear Competitions in the 21st Century 2010.pdf

China:
Litigation Release - China Military Strategy 2014.pdf
Litigation Release - China's Perception of Strategic Advantages of First Strike, Preemption, and Preventive Wars 201406.pdf
Litigation Release - China- The Three Warfares 201305.pdf
Litigation Release - How is Chinese Society Affected By Shrinking Family Size 201208.pdf

Americans (and China I think):
Litigation Release - On the Nature of Americans as a Warlike People Workshop Report 200904.pdf

tech:
Litigation Release - Technological Innovation During Protracted War Radar and Atomic Weapons in WWII 201504.pdf
Litigation Release - Technology Transfer Net Assessment Workshop Report 201201.pdf

China again:
Litigation Release - The Future of Africa The Future of China in Africa 2035 201406.pdf

Russia and climate change:
Litigation Release - The Kremlin's Arctic Dreams.pdf

China again:
Litigation Release - The Neurocognitive Divide 201412.pdf

demographic trends mostly:
Litigation Release - The Next 100 Years Workshop Report 200903.pdf
Litigation Release - The Next 100 Years Workshop Report Part II 200908.pdf

more China:
Litigation Release - The Strategic Consequences of Chinese Racism 201301.pdf

Americans:
Litigation Release - Trends in Elite American Attitudes Toward War Workshop Report 201009.pdf

more China:
Litigation Release - Why China Seeks Confrontation with the U.S. 201108.pdf

reflection:
Litigation Release - Why is Strategy so difficult 201102.pdf
org:gov  links  list  military  war  strategy  trends  culture  analysis  prediction  speculation  leaks  gnon  anglosphere  usa  asia  china  foreign-policy  realpolitik  the-great-west-whale  nuclear  russia  environment  technology  climate-change  sinosphere  fertility  martial  big-picture  meta:war  current-events  africa  migration  futurism  migrant-crisis  demographics  tetlock  study  hmm  idk  demographic-transition  multi  pop-diff  chart  defense  zeitgeist  the-bones  great-powers  kumbaya-kult  peace-violence  white-paper 
march 2017 by nhaliday

bundles : dismalitymeta

related tags

80000-hours  africa  agriculture  ai  ai-control  algorithms  alien-character  allodium  alt-inst  altruism  analysis  anglo  anglosphere  antidemos  applications  arms  article  asia  audio  authoritarianism  automation  backup  barons  big-picture  bio  biophysical-econ  biotech  britain  capital  career  charity  chart  china  civic  civil-liberty  class  climate-change  commentary  communism  comparison  competition  computer-vision  cooperate-defect  corporation  corruption  cost-benefit  creative  crime  culture  current-events  data  debt  deepgoog  defense  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  detail-architecture  deterrence  developing-world  dirty-hands  discussion  disease  distribution  drugs  duty  earth  economics  education  effective-altruism  electromag  energy-resources  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  environment  equilibrium  error  estimate  ethics  EU  europe  explanation  fertility  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  frontier  futurism  gallic  game-theory  games  geoengineering  geography  geometry  geopolitics  gnon  google  government  great-powers  growth-econ  hacker  hanson  hardware  heavy-industry  hi-order-bits  higher-ed  hmm  homo-hetero  hsu  human-capital  human-ml  hypocrisy  ideas  idk  india  individualism-collectivism  inequality  info-dynamics  infrastructure  innovation  institutions  insurance  intel  interests  internet  interview  investing  iran  islam  japan  jobs  journos-pundits  korea  kumbaya-kult  labor  language  latin-america  law  leaks  leviathan  links  list  magnitude  malaise  malthus  maps  markets  martial  measure  measurement  media  MENA  meta:war  migrant-crisis  migration  military  miri-cfar  monetary-fiscal  multi  musk  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  news  nibble  nihil  nuclear  objektbuch  oceans  offense-defense  opioids  optimate  optimism  org:biz  org:foreign  org:gov  org:lite  org:mag  org:rec  org:sci  outcome-risk  papers  parasites-microbiome  pdf  peace-violence  philosophy  phys-energy  physics  planning  podcast  policy  polisci  politics  pop-diff  prediction  prepping  presentation  privacy  pro-rata  propaganda  property-rights  proposal  ratty  realness  realpolitik  reference  regularizer  regulation  relativity  revolution  right-wing  risk  robotics  russia  scale  science  scitariat  securities  security  self-interest  simulation  sinosphere  sky  social  society  software  spatial  speculation  speedometer  stagnation  stories  strategy  street-fighting  study  sulla  survival  sv  symmetry  tactics  taxes  teaching  tech  technology  terrorism  tetlock  the-bones  the-great-west-whale  the-world-is-just-atoms  threat-modeling  thucydides  time  time-series  top-n  trade  travel  trends  trump  trust  tutoring  twitter  us-them  usa  values  video  walls  war  west-hunter  white-paper  wiki  wild-ideas  world  yoga  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🐸 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: