nhaliday + travel   50

Information Processing: US Needs a National AI Strategy: A Sputnik Moment?
FT podcasts on US-China competition and AI: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/05/ft-podcasts-on-us-china-competition-and.html

A new recommended career path for effective altruists: China specialist: https://80000hours.org/articles/china-careers/
Our rough guess is that it would be useful for there to be at least ten people in the community with good knowledge in this area within the next few years.

By “good knowledge” we mean they’ve spent at least 3 years studying these topics and/or living in China.

We chose ten because that would be enough for several people to cover each of the major areas listed (e.g. 4 within AI, 2 within biorisk, 2 within foreign relations, 1 in another area).

AI Policy and Governance Internship: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ai-policy-governance-internship/

https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/deciphering-chinas-ai-dream/
https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Deciphering_Chinas_AI-Dream.pdf
Deciphering China’s AI Dream
The context, components, capabilities, and consequences of
China’s strategy to lead the world in AI

Europe’s AI delusion: https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-europes-ai-delusion/
Brussels is failing to grasp threats and opportunities of artificial intelligence.
By BRUNO MAÇÃES

When the computer program AlphaGo beat the Chinese professional Go player Ke Jie in a three-part match, it didn’t take long for Beijing to realize the implications.

If algorithms can already surpass the abilities of a master Go player, it can’t be long before they will be similarly supreme in the activity to which the classic board game has always been compared: war.

As I’ve written before, the great conflict of our time is about who can control the next wave of technological development: the widespread application of artificial intelligence in the economic and military spheres.

...

If China’s ambitions sound plausible, that’s because the country’s achievements in deep learning are so impressive already. After Microsoft announced that its speech recognition software surpassed human-level language recognition in October 2016, Andrew Ng, then head of research at Baidu, tweeted: “We had surpassed human-level Chinese recognition in 2015; happy to see Microsoft also get there for English less than a year later.”

...

One obvious advantage China enjoys is access to almost unlimited pools of data. The machine-learning technologies boosting the current wave of AI expansion are as good as the amount of data they can use. That could be the number of people driving cars, photos labeled on the internet or voice samples for translation apps. With 700 or 800 million Chinese internet users and fewer data protection rules, China is as rich in data as the Gulf States are in oil.

How can Europe and the United States compete? They will have to be commensurately better in developing algorithms and computer power. Sadly, Europe is falling behind in these areas as well.

...

Chinese commentators have embraced the idea of a coming singularity: the moment when AI surpasses human ability. At that point a number of interesting things happen. First, future AI development will be conducted by AI itself, creating exponential feedback loops. Second, humans will become useless for waging war. At that point, the human mind will be unable to keep pace with robotized warfare. With advanced image recognition, data analytics, prediction systems, military brain science and unmanned systems, devastating wars might be waged and won in a matter of minutes.

...

The argument in the new strategy is fully defensive. It first considers how AI raises new threats and then goes on to discuss the opportunities. The EU and Chinese strategies follow opposite logics. Already on its second page, the text frets about the legal and ethical problems raised by AI and discusses the “legitimate concerns” the technology generates.

The EU’s strategy is organized around three concerns: the need to boost Europe’s AI capacity, ethical issues and social challenges. Unfortunately, even the first dimension quickly turns out to be about “European values” and the need to place “the human” at the center of AI — forgetting that the first word in AI is not “human” but “artificial.”

https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/983057591298351104
https://archive.is/m3Njh
US military: "LOL, China thinks it's going to be a major player in AI, but we've got all the top AI researchers. You guys will help us develop weapons, right?"

US AI researchers: "No."

US military: "But... maybe just a computer vision app."

US AI researchers: "NO."

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/4/17196818/ai-boycot-killer-robots-kaist-university-hanwha
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/technology/google-letter-ceo-pentagon-project.html
https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/981685030417326080
https://archive.is/3wbHm
AI-risk was a mistake.
hsu  scitariat  commentary  video  presentation  comparison  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  frontier  technology  science  ai  speedometer  innovation  google  barons  deepgoog  stories  white-paper  strategy  migration  iran  human-capital  corporation  creative  alien-character  military  human-ml  nationalism-globalism  security  investing  government  games  deterrence  defense  nuclear  arms  competition  risk  ai-control  musk  optimism  multi  news  org:mag  europe  EU  80000-hours  effective-altruism  proposal  article  realness  offense-defense  war  biotech  altruism  language  foreign-lang  philosophy  the-great-west-whale  enhancement  foreign-policy  geopolitics  anglo  jobs  career  planning  hmm  travel  charity  tech  intel  media  teaching  tutoring  russia  india  miri-cfar  pdf  automation  class  labor  polisci  society  trust  n-factor  corruption  leviathan  ethics  authoritarianism  individualism-collectivism  revolution  economics  inequality  civic  law  regulation  data  scale  pro-rata  capital  zero-positive-sum  cooperate-defect  distribution  time-series  tre 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Why Sex? And why only in Pairs? - Marginal REVOLUTION
The core conclusion is that mutations continue to rise with the number of sex-participating partners, but in simple Red Queen models the limiting features of the genotypes is the same whether there are two, three, or more partners.

Men Are Animals: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/06/men-are-animals.html
I agree with all the comments citing motility/sessility.
econotariat  marginal-rev  commentary  study  summary  economics  broad-econ  interdisciplinary  bio  biodet  deep-materialism  new-religion  eden  gender  sex  EGT  explanans  red-queen  parasites-microbiome  mutation  comparison  evolution  roots  🌞  population-genetics  genetics  marginal  equilibrium  number  ecology  whole-partial-many  uniqueness  parsimony  multi  cost-benefit  outcome-risk  uncertainty  moments  spatial  travel  explore-exploit  ratty  hanson 
january 2018 by nhaliday
Books 2017 | West Hunter
Arabian Sands
The Aryans
The Big Show
The Camel and the Wheel
Civil War on Western Waters
Company Commander
Double-edged Secrets
The Forgotten Soldier
Genes in Conflict
Hive Mind
The horse, the wheel, and language
The Penguin Atlas of Medieval History
Habitable Planets for Man
The genetical theory of natural selection
The Rise of the Greeks
To Lose a Battle
The Jewish War
Tropical Gangsters
The Forgotten Revolution
Egil’s Saga
Shapers
Time Patrol

Russo: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/12/14/books-2017/#comment-98568
west-hunter  scitariat  books  recommendations  list  top-n  confluence  2017  info-foraging  canon  🔬  ideas  s:*  history  mostly-modern  world-war  britain  old-anglo  travel  MENA  frontier  reflection  europe  gallic  war  sapiens  antiquity  archaeology  technology  divergence  the-great-west-whale  transportation  nature  long-short-run  intel  tradecraft  japan  asia  usa  spearhead  garett-jones  hive-mind  economics  broad-econ  giants  fisher  space  iron-age  medieval  the-classics  civilization  judaism  conquest-empire  africa  developing-world  institutions  science  industrial-revolution  the-trenches  wild-ideas  innovation  speedometer  nordic  mediterranean  speculation  fiction  scifi-fantasy  time  encyclopedic  multi  poast  critique  cost-benefit  tradeoffs  quixotic 
december 2017 by nhaliday
How Much Does It Cost to Own a Boat? Insurance & Maintenance | MintLife Blog
The annual tab for upkeep, including insurance, winter storage, and maintenance comes to $4,300. That’s $358 per month.
brands  money  cost-benefit  analysis  oceans  outdoors  sports  data  travel  personal-finance  org:fin 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Book Review: On The Road | Slate Star Codex
But On The Road is, most importantly, a picture of a high-trust society collapsing. And it’s collapsing precisely because the book’s protagonists are going around defecting against everyone they meet at a hundred ten miles an hour.
ratty  yvain  ssc  books  review  literature  classic  critique  rant  realness  morality  crooked  anomie  gender  sex  crime  race  usa  farmers-and-foragers  trust  travel  vitality  values  the-bones  history  mostly-modern  cold-war  rot  zeitgeist  cooperate-defect  aphorism  modernity  contrarianism 
may 2017 by nhaliday
West of the West: Imagining California : an Anthology - Google Books
Jean Baudrillard:
There is nothing to match flying over Los Angeles by night. A sort of luminous, geometric, incandescent immensity, stretching as far as the eye can see, bursting out from the cracks in the clouds. Only Hieronymus Bosch’s hell can match this inferno effect. The muted fluorescence of all the diagonals: Wilshire, Lincoln, Sunset, Santa Monica. Already, flying over San Fernando Valley, you come upon the horizontal infinite in every direction. But, once you are beyond the mountain, a city ten times larger hits you. You will never have encountered anything that stretches as far as this before. Even the sea cannot match it, since it is not divided up geometrically. The irregular, scattered flickering of European cities does not produce the same parallel lines, the same vanishing points, the same aerial perspectives either. They are medieval cities. This one condenses by night the entire future geometry of the networks of human relations, gleaming in their abstraction, luminous in their extension, astral in their reproduction to infinity. Mulholland Drive by night is an extraterrestrial's vantage point on earth, or conversely, an earth dweller's vantage point on the galactic metropolis.

LA:
http://op-5.no/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Los-Angeles-Skyline-at-Night.jpg
https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3019/2954503853_5eb498818e_b.jpg
https://c1.staticflickr.com/2/1088/1345620202_349a05b200_b.jpg
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hjvVoD4_E74/maxresdefault.jpg
https://img.clipartfox.com/68b358809facc8ed32418c35e2d23e99_los-angeles-los-angeles-night-clipart_1920-1080.jpeg

Bosch:
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/dd/fc/da/ddfcdadd2c2951cdba2f70c80f76b841.jpg
gbooks  quotes  big-peeps  art  mystic  california  aphorism  gallic  travel  urban  embodied  multi  pic  beauty  urban-rural 
may 2017 by nhaliday
I've heard in the Middle Ages peasants weren't allowed to travel and that it was very difficult to travel in general. But what about pilgrimages then? Who participated in them and how did they overcome the difficulties of travel? : AskHistorians
How far from home did the average medieval person travel in a lifetime?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/1a1egs/how_far_from_home_did_the_average_medieval_person/
What was it like to travel during the middle ages?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/32n9ji/what_was_it_like_to_travel_during_the_middle_ages/
How expensive were medieval era inns relative to the cost of travel?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/2j3a1m/how_expensive_were_medieval_era_inns_relative_to/
Logistics of Travel in Medieval Times: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/3fc8li/logistics_of_travel_in_medieval_times/
Were people of antiquity and the Middle Ages able to travel relatively freely?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/wy3ir/were_people_of_antiquity_and_the_middle_ages_able/
How did someone such as Ibn Battuta (practically and logistically) travel, and keep travelling?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/1nw9mg/how_did_someone_such_as_ibn_battuta_practically/
'm a Norseman around the year 950 C.E. Could I have been born in Iceland, raided the shores of the Caspian Sea, and walked amongst the markets of Baghdad in my lifetime? How common was extreme long distance travel?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/2gh52r/im_a_norseman_around_the_year_950_ce_could_i_have/
Lone (inter-continental) long-distance travelers in the Middle Ages?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/1mrraq/lone_intercontinental_longdistance_travelers_in/
q-n-a  reddit  social  discussion  travel  europe  medieval  lived-experience  multi  money  iron-age  MENA  islam  china  asia  prepping  scale  measure  navigation  history  africa  people  feudal 
february 2017 by nhaliday
How easy was it for a fugitive to hide and/or establish a new identity before the invention of photography? : AskHistorians
There were strategies used to prevent this, such as branding. It was a major part of the law code in Anglo-Saxon England and it continued to be used intermittently in to the mid 19th c.
q-n-a  reddit  social  discussion  history  travel  crime  frontier  britain  europe  criminal-justice  early-modern  photography  trivia  lived-experience  prepping 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Pre-industrial travel would take weeks to get anywhere. What did people do during that time? : AskHistorians
How did travellers travel the world in the 16th century? Was there visas?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/5659ig/how_did_travellers_travel_the_world_in_the_16th/
How far from home would a typical Europeanin the 1600s travel in their life?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/5gsgn7/how_far_from_home_would_a_typical_europeanin_the/
I just read an article about how I can travel across country for $213 on Amtrak. How much would the trip have cost me in, say, the mid-1800s: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/3poen3/i_just_read_an_article_about_how_i_can_travel/
Ridiculously subjective but I'm curious anyways: What traveling distance was considered beyond the hopes and even imagination of a common person during your specialty?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/13zlsg/ridiculously_subjective_but_im_curious_anyways/
How fast could you travel across the U.S. in the 1800s?: https://www.mnn.com/green-tech/transportation/stories/how-fast-could-you-travel-across-the-us-in-the-1800s
What would be the earliest known example(s) of travel that could be thought of as "tourism"?: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/2uqxk9/what_would_be_the_earliest_known_examples_of/
https://twitter.com/conradhackett/status/944382041566654464
https://archive.is/9GWdK
This map shows travel time from London in 1881
q-n-a  reddit  social  discussion  history  europe  russia  early-modern  travel  lived-experience  multi  money  transportation  prepping  world  antiquity  iron-age  medieval  MENA  islam  comparison  mediterranean  usa  trivia  magnitude  scale  pre-ww2  navigation  measure  data  visualization  maps  feudal  twitter  pic  backup  journos-pundits 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Tips for Safe Mountain Driving
- don't allow yourself to go down faster than up, shift to S or L and try to avoid relying on brake
- cars going uphill have right of way
- 3 cars behind = pullout
human-bean  objektbuch  driving  safety  travel 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Overcoming Bias : Beware General Visible Prey
So, bottom line, the future great filter scenario that most concerns me is one where our solar-system-bound descendants have killed most of nature, can’t yet colonize other stars, are general predators and prey of each other, and have fallen into a short-term-predatory-focus equilibrium where predators can easily see and travel to most all prey. Yes there are about a hundred billion comets way out there circling the sun, but even that seems a small enough number for predators to careful map and track all of them.
hanson  risk  prediction  futurism  speculation  pessimism  war  ratty  space  big-picture  fermi  threat-modeling  equilibrium  slippery-slope  anthropic  chart  deep-materialism  new-religion  ideas  bio  nature  plots  expansionism  malthus  marginal  convexity-curvature  humanity  farmers-and-foragers  diversity  entropy-like  homo-hetero  existence  volo-avolo  technology  frontier  intel  travel  time-preference  communication  civilization  egalitarianism-hierarchy  peace-violence  ecology  cooperate-defect  dimensionality  whole-partial-many  temperance  patience  thinking  long-short-run  prepping  offense-defense 
october 2016 by nhaliday

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