nhaliday + phys-energy   42

Theory of Self-Reproducing Automata - John von Neumann
Fourth Lecture: THE ROLE OF HIGH AND OF EXTREMELY HIGH COMPLICATION

Comparisons between computing machines and the nervous systems. Estimates of size for computing machines, present and near future.

Estimates for size for the human central nervous system. Excursus about the “mixed” character of living organisms. Analog and digital elements. Observations about the “mixed” character of all componentry, artificial as well as natural. Interpretation of the position to be taken with respect to these.

Evaluation of the discrepancy in size between artificial and natural automata. Interpretation of this discrepancy in terms of physical factors. Nature of the materials used.

The probability of the presence of other intellectual factors. The role of complication and the theoretical penetration that it requires.

Questions of reliability and errors reconsidered. Probability of individual errors and length of procedure. Typical lengths of procedure for computing machines and for living organisms--that is, for artificial and for natural automata. Upper limits on acceptable probability of error in individual operations. Compensation by checking and self-correcting features.

Differences of principle in the way in which errors are dealt with in artificial and in natural automata. The “single error” principle in artificial automata. Crudeness of our approach in this case, due to the lack of adequate theory. More sophisticated treatment of this problem in natural automata: The role of the autonomy of parts. Connections between this autonomy and evolution.

- 10^10 neurons in brain, 10^4 vacuum tubes in largest computer at time
- machines faster: 5 ms from neuron potential to neuron potential, 10^-3 ms for vacuum tubes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann#Computing
pdf  article  papers  essay  nibble  math  cs  computation  bio  neuro  neuro-nitgrit  scale  magnitude  comparison  acm  von-neumann  giants  thermo  phys-energy  speed  performance  time  density  frequency  hardware  ems  efficiency  dirty-hands  street-fighting  fermi  estimate  retention  physics  interdisciplinary  multi  wiki  links  people  🔬  atoms  duplication  iteration-recursion  turing  complexity  measure  nature  technology  complex-systems  bits  information-theory  circuits  robust  structure  composition-decomposition  evolution  mutation  axioms  analogy  thinking  input-output  hi-order-bits  coding-theory  flexibility  rigidity  automata-languages 
april 2018 by nhaliday
Eternity in six hours: intergalactic spreading of intelligent life and sharpening the Fermi paradox
We do this by demonstrating that traveling between galaxies – indeed even launching a colonisation project for the entire reachable universe – is a relatively simple task for a star-spanning civilization, requiring modest amounts of energy and resources. We start by demonstrating that humanity itself could likely accomplish such a colonisation project in the foreseeable future, should we want to, and then demonstrate that there are millions of galaxies that could have reached us by now, using similar methods. This results in a considerable sharpening of the Fermi paradox.
pdf  study  article  essay  anthropic  fermi  space  expansionism  bostrom  ratty  philosophy  xenobio  ideas  threat-modeling  intricacy  time  civilization  🔬  futurism  questions  paradox  risk  physics  engineering  interdisciplinary  frontier  technology  volo-avolo  dirty-hands  ai  automation  robotics  duplication  iteration-recursion  von-neumann  data  scale  magnitude  skunkworks  the-world-is-just-atoms  hard-tech  ems  bio  bits  speedometer  nature  model-organism  mechanics  phys-energy  relativity  electromag  analysis  spock  nitty-gritty  spreading  hanson  street-fighting  speed  gedanken  nibble 
march 2018 by nhaliday
Autoignition temperature - Wikipedia
The autoignition temperature or kindling point of a substance is the lowest temperature at which it spontaneously ignites in normal atmosphere without an external source of ignition, such as a flame or spark. This temperature is required to supply the activation energy needed for combustion. The temperature at which a chemical ignites decreases as the pressure or oxygen concentration increases. It is usually applied to a combustible fuel mixture.

The time {\displaystyle t_{\text{ig}}} {\displaystyle t_{\text{ig}}} it takes for a material to reach its autoignition temperature {\displaystyle T_{\text{ig}}} {\displaystyle T_{\text{ig}}} when exposed to a heat flux {\displaystyle q''} {\displaystyle q''} is given by the following equation:
nibble  wiki  reference  concept  metrics  identity  physics  thermo  temperature  time  stock-flow  phys-energy  chemistry  article  street-fighting  fire  magnitude  data  list 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Static electricity - Wikipedia
Electrons can be exchanged between materials on contact; materials with weakly bound electrons tend to lose them while materials with sparsely filled outer shells tend to gain them. This is known as the triboelectric effect and results in one material becoming positively charged and the other negatively charged. The polarity and strength of the charge on a material once they are separated depends on their relative positions in the triboelectric series. The triboelectric effect is the main cause of static electricity as observed in everyday life, and in common high-school science demonstrations involving rubbing different materials together (e.g., fur against an acrylic rod). Contact-induced charge separation causes your hair to stand up and causes "static cling" (for example, a balloon rubbed against the hair becomes negatively charged; when near a wall, the charged balloon is attracted to positively charged particles in the wall, and can "cling" to it, appearing to be suspended against gravity).
nibble  wiki  reference  article  physics  electromag  embodied  curiosity  IEEE  dirty-hands  phys-energy  safety  data  magnitude  scale 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Resonance in a Pendulum - YouTube
The vibration of any given washer is able to transmit its energy only to another washer with exactly the same frequency. Since the length of a pendulum determines its frequency of vibration, each pendulum can only set another pendulum vibrating if it has the same length.
nibble  video  social  physics  mechanics  waves  oscillation  synchrony  flux-stasis  increase-decrease  concrete  ground-up  dirty-hands  phys-energy  frequency  spreading 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Europa, Enceladus, Moon Miranda | West Hunter
A lot of ice moons seem to have interior oceans, warmed by tidal flexing and possibly radioactivity.  But they’re lousy candidates for life, because you need free energy; and there’s very little in the interior oceans of such system.

It is possible that NASA is institutionally poor at pointing this out.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  ideas  rant  speculation  prediction  government  dirty-hands  space  xenobio  oceans  fluid  thermo  phys-energy  temperature  no-go  volo-avolo  physics  equilibrium  street-fighting  nibble  error  track-record  usa  bio  eden  cybernetics  complex-systems 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Lecture 3: Global Energy Cycle
solar flux, albedo, greenhouse effect, energy balance, vertical distribution of energy, tilt and seasons
pdf  slides  nibble  physics  electromag  space  earth  sky  atmosphere  environment  temperature  stock-flow  data  magnitude  scale  phys-energy  distribution  oscillation  cycles  lectures  geography 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Muscle, steam and combustion
Vaclav Smil’s Energy and Civilization is a monumental history of how humanity has harnessed muscle, steam and combustion to build palaces and skyscrapers, light the night and land on the Moon. Want to learn about the number of labourers needed to build Egypt’s pyramids of Giza, or US inventor Thomas Edison’s battles with Nikola Tesla and George Westinghouse to electrify homes and cities, or the upscaling of power stations and blast furnaces in the twentieth century? Look no further.
pdf  books  review  vaclav-smil  pseudoE  deep-materialism  energy-resources  biophysical-econ  the-world-is-just-atoms  big-picture  history  antiquity  iron-age  medieval  early-modern  farmers-and-foragers  civilization  technology  industrial-revolution  heavy-industry  🔬  phys-energy  the-bones  environment  scale  economics  growth-econ  broad-econ  efficiency  chart  dirty-hands  fluid  input-output 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Controversial New Theory Suggests Life Wasn't a Fluke of Biology—It Was Physics | WIRED
First Support for a Physics Theory of Life: https://www.quantamagazine.org/first-support-for-a-physics-theory-of-life-20170726/
Take chemistry, add energy, get life. The first tests of Jeremy England’s provocative origin-of-life hypothesis are in, and they appear to show how order can arise from nothing.
news  org:mag  profile  popsci  bio  xenobio  deep-materialism  roots  eden  physics  interdisciplinary  applications  ideas  thermo  complex-systems  cybernetics  entropy-like  order-disorder  arrows  phys-energy  emergent  empirical  org:sci  org:inst  nibble  chemistry  fixed-point  wild-ideas  multi 
august 2017 by nhaliday
[1705.03394] That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi's paradox
If a civilization wants to maximize computation it appears rational to aestivate until the far future in order to exploit the low temperature environment: this can produce a 10^30 multiplier of achievable computation. We hence suggest the "aestivation hypothesis": the reason we are not observing manifestations of alien civilizations is that they are currently (mostly) inactive, patiently waiting for future cosmic eras. This paper analyzes the assumptions going into the hypothesis and how physical law and observational evidence constrain the motivations of aliens compatible with the hypothesis.

http://aleph.se/andart2/space/the-aestivation-hypothesis-popular-outline-and-faq/

simpler explanation (just different math for Drake equation):
Dissolving the Fermi Paradox: http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-bank-centre-for-astrophysics/news-and-events/2017/uksrn-slides/Anders-Sandberg---Dissolving-Fermi-Paradox-UKSRN.pdf
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/07/fermi-paradox-resolved.html
Overall the argument is that point estimates should not be shoved into a Drake equation and then multiplied by each, as that requires excess certainty and masks much of the ambiguity of our knowledge about the distributions. Instead, a Bayesian approach should be used, after which the fate of humanity looks much better. Here is one part of the presentation:

Life Versus Dark Energy: How An Advanced Civilization Could Resist the Accelerating Expansion of the Universe: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.05203
The presence of dark energy in our universe is causing space to expand at an accelerating rate. As a result, over the next approximately 100 billion years, all stars residing beyond the Local Group will fall beyond the cosmic horizon and become not only unobservable, but entirely inaccessible, thus limiting how much energy could one day be extracted from them. Here, we consider the likely response of a highly advanced civilization to this situation. In particular, we argue that in order to maximize its access to useable energy, a sufficiently advanced civilization would chose to expand rapidly outward, build Dyson Spheres or similar structures around encountered stars, and use the energy that is harnessed to accelerate those stars away from the approaching horizon and toward the center of the civilization. We find that such efforts will be most effective for stars with masses in the range of M∼(0.2−1)M⊙, and could lead to the harvesting of stars within a region extending out to several tens of Mpc in radius, potentially increasing the total amount of energy that is available to a future civilization by a factor of several thousand. We also discuss the observable signatures of a civilization elsewhere in the universe that is currently in this state of stellar harvesting.
preprint  study  essay  article  bostrom  ratty  anthropic  philosophy  space  xenobio  computation  physics  interdisciplinary  ideas  hmm  cocktail  temperature  thermo  information-theory  bits  🔬  threat-modeling  time  scale  insight  multi  commentary  liner-notes  pdf  slides  error  probability  ML-MAP-E  composition-decomposition  econotariat  marginal-rev  fermi  risk  org:mat  questions  paradox  intricacy  multiplicative  calculation  street-fighting  methodology  distribution  expectancy  moments  bayesian  priors-posteriors  nibble  measurement  existence  technology  geoengineering  magnitude  spatial  density  spreading  civilization  energy-resources  phys-energy  measure  direction  speculation  structure 
may 2017 by nhaliday
[1502.05274] How predictable is technological progress?
Recently it has become clear that many technologies follow a generalized version of Moore's law, i.e. costs tend to drop exponentially, at different rates that depend on the technology. Here we formulate Moore's law as a correlated geometric random walk with drift, and apply it to historical data on 53 technologies. We derive a closed form expression approximating the distribution of forecast errors as a function of time. Based on hind-casting experiments we show that this works well, making it possible to collapse the forecast errors for many different technologies at different time horizons onto the same universal distribution. This is valuable because it allows us to make forecasts for any given technology with a clear understanding of the quality of the forecasts. As a practical demonstration we make distributional forecasts at different time horizons for solar photovoltaic modules, and show how our method can be used to estimate the probability that a given technology will outperform another technology at a given point in the future.

model:
- p_t = unit price of tech
- log(p_t) = y_0 - μt + ∑_{i <= t} n_i
- n_t iid noise process
preprint  study  economics  growth-econ  innovation  discovery  technology  frontier  tetlock  meta:prediction  models  time  definite-planning  stylized-facts  regression  econometrics  magnitude  energy-resources  phys-energy  money  cost-benefit  stats  data-science  🔬  ideas  speedometer  multiplicative  methodology  stochastic-processes  time-series  stock-flow  iteration-recursion  org:mat  street-fighting  the-bones 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Overview of current development in electrical energy storage technologies and the application potential in power system operation
- An overview of the state-of-the-art in Electrical Energy Storage (EES) is provided.
- A comprehensive analysis of various EES technologies is carried out.
- An application potential analysis of the reviewed EES technologies is presented.
- The presented synthesis to EES technologies can be used to support future R&D and deployment.

Prospects and Limits of Energy Storage in Batteries: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/jz5026273
study  survey  state-of-art  energy-resources  heavy-industry  chemistry  applications  electromag  stock-flow  wonkish  frontier  technology  biophysical-econ  the-world-is-just-atoms  🔬  phys-energy  ideas  speedometer  dirty-hands  multi 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Assessing the calorific significance of episodes of human cannibalism in the Palaeolithic : Scientific Reports
Results show that humans have a comparable nutritional value to those faunal species that match our typical body weight, but significantly lower than a range of fauna often found in association with anthropogenically modified hominin remains. This could suggest that the motivations behind hominin anthropophagy may not have been purely nutritionally motivated. It is proposed here that the comparatively low nutritional value of hominin cannibalism episodes support more socially or culturally driven narratives in the interpretation of Palaeolithic cannibalism.

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep44707/tables/1
study  org:nat  anthropology  sapiens  history  antiquity  food  death  horror  nutrition  metabolic  embodied  :/  phys-energy  multi  data  objektbuch  ethnography  ritual  nihil  prepping 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Interview Greg Cochran by Future Strategist
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/08/10/interview/

- IQ enhancement (somewhat apprehensive, wonder why?)
- ~20 years to CRISPR enhancement (very ballpark)
- cloning as an alternative strategy
- environmental effects on IQ, what matters (iodine, getting hit in the head), what doesn't (schools, etc.), and toss-ups (childhood/embryonic near-starvation, disease besides direct CNS-affecting ones [!])
- malnutrition did cause more schizophrenia in Netherlands (WW2) and China (Great Leap Forward) though
- story about New Mexico schools and his children (mostly grad students in physics now)
- clever sillies, weird geniuses, and clueless elites
- life-extension and accidents, half-life ~ a few hundred years for a typical American
- Pinker on Harvard faculty adoptions (always Chinese girls)
- parabiosis, organ harvesting
- Chicago economics talk
- Catholic Church, cousin marriage, and the rise of the West
- Gregory Clark and Farewell to Alms
- retinoblastoma cancer, mutational load, and how to deal w/ it ("something will turn up")
- Tularemia and Stalingrad (ex-Soviet scientist literally mentioned his father doing it)
- germ warfare, nuclear weapons, and testing each
- poison gas, Haber, nerve gas, terrorists, Japan, Syria, and Turkey
- nukes at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incirlik_Air_Base
- IQ of ancient Greeks
- history of China and the Mongols, cloning Genghis Khan
- Alexander the Great vs. Napoleon, Russian army being late for meetup w/ Austrians
- the reason why to go into Iraq: to find and clone Genghis Khan!
- efficacy of torture
- monogamy, polygamy, and infidelity, the Aboriginal system (reverse aging wives)
- education and twin studies
- errors: passing white, female infanticide, interdisciplinary social science/economic imperialism, the slavery and salt story
- Jewish optimism about environmental interventions, Rabbi didn't want people to know, Israelis don't want people to know about group differences between Ashkenazim and other groups in Israel
- NASA spewing crap on extraterrestrial life (eg, thermodynamic gradient too weak for life in oceans of ice moons)
west-hunter  interview  audio  podcast  being-right  error  bounded-cognition  history  mostly-modern  giants  autism  physics  von-neumann  math  longevity  enhancement  safety  government  leadership  elite  scitariat  econotariat  cracker-econ  big-picture  judaism  iq  recent-selection  🌞  spearhead  gregory-clark  2016  space  xenobio  equilibrium  phys-energy  thermo  no-go  🔬  disease  gene-flow  population-genetics  gedanken  genetics  evolution  dysgenics  assortative-mating  aaronson  CRISPR  biodet  variance-components  environmental-effects  natural-experiment  stories  europe  germanic  psychology  cog-psych  psychiatry  china  asia  prediction  frontier  genetic-load  realness  time  aging  pinker  academia  medicine  economics  chicago  social-science  kinship  tribalism  religion  christianity  protestant-catholic  the-great-west-whale  divergence  roots  britain  agriculture  farmers-and-foragers  time-preference  cancer  society  civilization  russia  arms  parasites-microbiome  epidemiology  nuclear  biotech  deterrence  meta:war  terrorism  iraq-syria  MENA  foreign-poli 
march 2017 by nhaliday
Discovering Limits to Growth | Do the Math
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/review-limits-to-growth-meadows/
https://foundational-research.org/the-future-of-growth-near-zero-growth-rates/
One may of course be skeptical that this general trend will also apply to the growth of our technology and economy at large, as innovation seems to continually postpone our clash with the ceiling, yet it seems inescapable that it must. For in light of what we know about physics, we can conclude that exponential growth of the kinds we see today, in technology in particular and in our economy more generally, must come to an end, and do so relatively soon.
scitariat  prediction  hmm  economics  growth-econ  biophysical-econ  world  energy-resources  the-world-is-just-atoms  books  summary  quotes  commentary  malthus  models  dynamical  🐸  mena4  demographics  environment  org:bleg  nibble  regularizer  science-anxiety  deep-materialism  nihil  the-bones  whiggish-hegelian  multi  tetlock  trends  wiki  macro  pessimism  eh  primitivism  new-religion  cynicism-idealism  gnon  review  recommendations  long-short-run  futurism  ratty  miri-cfar  effective-altruism  hanson  econ-metrics  ems  magnitude  street-fighting  nitty-gritty  physics  data  phys-energy  🔬  multiplicative  iteration-recursion 
march 2017 by nhaliday
Which one would be easier to terraform: Venus or Mars? - Quora
what Greg Cochran was suggesting:
First, alternatives to terraforming. It would be possible to live on Venus in the high atmosphere, in giant floating cities. Using a standard space-station atmospheric mix at about half an earth atmosphere, a pressurized geodesic sphere would float naturally somewhere above the bulk of the clouds of sulfuric acid. Atmospheric motions would likely lead to some rotation about the polar areas, where inhabitants would experience a near-perpetual sunset. Floating cities could be mechanically rotated to provide a day-night cycle for on-board agriculture. The Venusian atmosphere is rich in carbon, oxygen, sulfur, and has trace quantities of water. These could be mined for building materials, while rarer elements could be mined from the surface with long scoops or imported from other places with space-plane shuttles.
q-n-a  qra  physics  space  geoengineering  caltech  phys-energy  magnitude  fermi  analysis  data  the-world-is-just-atoms  new-religion  technology  comparison  sky  atmosphere  thermo  gravity  electromag  applications  frontier  west-hunter  wild-ideas  🔬  scitariat  definite-planning  ideas  expansionism 
february 2017 by nhaliday
How do food manufacturers calculate the calorie count of packaged foods? - Scientific American
The original method used to determine the number of kcals in a given food directly measured the energy it produced.The food was placed in a sealed container surrounded by water--an apparatus known as a bomb calorimeter. The food was completely burned and the resulting rise in water temperature was measured. This method is not frequently used today.
q-n-a  news  org:sci  popsci  food  nutrition  measurement  phys-energy  physics  thermo  org:mag  explanation  metabolic  methodology  fire  heavy-industry 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Energy of Seawater Desalination
0.66 kcal / liter is the minimum energy required to desalination of one liter of seawater, regardless of the technology applied to the process.
infrastructure  explanation  physics  thermo  objektbuch  data  lower-bounds  chemistry  the-world-is-just-atoms  geoengineering  phys-energy  nibble  oceans  h2o  applications  estimate  🔬  energy-resources  biophysical-econ  stylized-facts  ideas  fluid  volo-avolo 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Genetically Capitalist? The Malthusian Era, Institutions and the Formation of Modern Preferences.
The highly capitalistic nature of English society by 1800 – individualism, low time preference rates, long work hours, high levels of human capital – may thus stem from the nature of the Darwinian struggle in a very stable agrarian society in the long run up to the Industrial Revolution. The triumph of capitalism in the modern world thus may lie as much in our genes as in ideology or rationality.

...

key figure:
Figure 8 Surviving Children by Testator’s Assets in £

...

on foragers and farmers:
When we consider forager societies the evidence on rates of return becomes much more indirect, because there is no explicit capital market, or lending may be subject to substantial default risks given the lack of fixed assets with which to secure loans. Anthropologists, however, have devised other ways to measure people’s rate of time preference rates. They can, for example, look at the relative rewards of activities whose benefits occur at different times in the future: digging up wild tubers or fishing with an immediate reward, as opposed to trapping with a reward delayed by days, as opposed to clearing and planting with a reward months in the future, as opposed to animal rearing with a reward years in the future.

A recent study of Mikea forager-farmers in Madagascar found, for example, that the typical Mikea household planted less than half as much land as was needed to feed themselves. Yet the returns from shifting cultivation of maize were enormous. A typical yielded was a minimum of 74,000 kcal. per hour of work. Foraging for tubers, in comparison, yielded an average return of 1,800 kcal. per hour. Despite this the Mikea rely on foraging for a large share of their food, consequently spending most time foraging. This implies extraordinarily high time preference rates.39 James Woodburn claimed that Hadza of Tanzania showed a similar disinterest in distant benefits, “In harvesting berries, entire branches are often cut from the trees to ease the present problems of picking without regard to future loss of yield.”40 Even the near future mattered little. The Pirahã of Brazil are even more indifferent to future benefits. A brief overview of their culture included the summary,
"Most important in understanding Pirahã material culture is their lack of concern with the non-immediate or the abstraction of present action for future benefit, e. g. ‘saving for a rainy day.’" (Everett, 2005, Appendix 5).

...

The real rate of return, r, can be thought of as composed of three elements: a rate of pure time preference, ρ, a default risk premium, d, and a premium that reflects the growth of overall expected incomes year to year, θgy. Thus
r ≈ ρ + d + θgy.

People as economic agents display a basic set of preferences – between consumption now and future consumption, between consumption of leisure or goods – that modern economics has taken as primitives. Time preference is simply the idea that, everything else being equal, people prefer to consume now rather than later. The rate of time preference measures how strong that preference is.

The existence of time preference in consumption cannot be derived from consideration of rational action. Indeed it has been considered by some economists to represent a systematic deviation of human psychology from rational action, where there should be no absolute time preference. Economists have thought of time preference rates as being hard-wired into peoples’ psyches, and as having stemmed from some very early evolutionary process.41

...

on china:
Figure 17 Male total fertility rate for the Qing Imperial
Lineage

In China and Japan also, while richer groups had more
reproductive success in the pre-industrial era, that advantage was
more muted than in England. Figure 17, for example, shows the
total fertility rate for the Qing imperial lineage in China in 1644-1840. This is the number of births per man living to age 45. The royal lineage, which had access to imperial subsidies and allowances that made them wealthy, was more successful reproductively than the average Chinese man. But in most decades the advantage was modest – not anything like as dramatic as in preindustrial England.

But these advantages cumulated in China over millennia perhaps explain why it is no real surprise that China, despite nearly a generation of extreme forms of Communism between 1949 and 1978, emerged unchanged as a society individualist and capitalist to its core. The effects of the thousands of years of operation of a society under the selective pressures of the Malthusian regime could not be uprooted by utopian dreamers.

Review by Allen: http://faculty.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/gclark/Farewell%20to%20Alms/Allen_JEL_Review.pdf
The empirical support for these claims is examined, and all are questionable.

Review by Bowles: http://sci-hub.tw/10.1126/science.1149498

The Domestication of Man: The Social Implications of Darwin: http://gredos.usal.es/jspui/bitstream/10366/72715/1/The_Domestication_of_Man_The_Social_Impl.pdf

hmm: https://growthecon.com/blog/Constraints/
pdf  economics  pseudoE  growth-econ  study  history  britain  anglosphere  europe  industrial-revolution  evolution  new-religion  mobility  recent-selection  🌞  🎩  sapiens  class  c:**  path-dependence  pre-2013  divergence  spearhead  cliometrics  human-capital  leviathan  farmers-and-foragers  agriculture  fertility  individualism-collectivism  gregory-clark  biodet  early-modern  malthus  unit  nibble  len:long  lived-experience  roots  the-great-west-whale  capitalism  biophysical-econ  time-preference  sociology  deep-materialism  broad-econ  s-factor  behavioral-gen  pop-diff  rent-seeking  patience  chart  antiquity  investing  finance  anthropology  cost-benefit  phys-energy  temperance  values  supply-demand  legacy  order-disorder  markets  entrepreneurialism  self-control  discipline  stamina  data  nihil  efficiency  optimate  life-history  cultural-dynamics  wealth-of-nations  stylized-facts  comparison  sinosphere  china  asia  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  medieval  correlation  multi  essay  books 
november 2016 by nhaliday
Overcoming Bias : A Future Of Pipes
The future of computing, after about 2035, is adiabatic reservable hardware. When such hardware runs at a cost-minimizing speed, half of the total budget is spent on computer hardware, and the other half is spent on energy and cooling for that hardware. Thus after 2035 or so, about as much will be spent on computer hardware and a physical space to place it as will be spent on hardware and space for systems to generate and transport energy into the computers, and to absorb and transport heat away from those computers. So if you seek a career for a futuristic world dominated by computers, note that a career making or maintaining energy or cooling systems may be just as promising as a career making or maintaining computing hardware.

We can imagine lots of futuristic ways to cheaply and compactly make and transport energy. These include thorium reactors and superconducting power cables. It is harder to imagine futuristic ways to absorb and transport heat. So we are likely to stay stuck with existing approaches to cooling. And the best of these, at least on large scales, is to just push cool fluids past the hardware. And the main expense in this approach is for the pipes to transport those fluids, and the space to hold those pipes.

Thus in future cities crammed with computer hardware, roughly half of the volume is likely to be taken up by pipes that move cooling fluids in and out. And the tech for such pipes will probably be more stable than tech for energy or computers. So if you want a stable career managing something that will stay very valuable for a long time, consider plumbing.

Will this focus on cooling limit city sizes? After all, the surface area of a city, where cooling fluids can go in and out, goes as the square of city scale , while the volume to be cooled goes as the cube of city scale. The ratio of volume to surface area is thus linear in city scale. So does our ability to cool cities fall inversely with city scale?

Actually, no. We have good fractal pipe designs to efficiently import fluids like air or water from outside a city to near every point in that city, and to then export hot fluids from near every point to outside the city. These fractal designs require cost overheads that are only logarithmic in the total size of the city. That is, when you double the city size, such overheads increase by only a constant amount, instead of doubling.
hanson  futurism  prediction  street-fighting  essay  len:short  ratty  computation  hardware  thermo  structure  composition-decomposition  complex-systems  magnitude  analysis  urban-rural  power-law  phys-energy  detail-architecture  efficiency  economics  supply-demand  labor  planning  long-term  physics  temperature  flux-stasis  fluid  measure  technology  frontier  speedometer  career  cost-benefit  identity  stylized-facts  objektbuch  data  trivia  cocktail  aphorism 
august 2016 by nhaliday

bundles : physics

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