nhaliday + parenting   102

Comparing within- and between-family polygenic score prediction | bioRxiv
https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1116074740475736066
https://archive.is/bQnjM
See this thread for our new study on polygenic scores within fraternal twin pairs! Main point: take extra care with polygenic scores for traits like IQ & education, because they're confounded by (what seem to be) socioeconomic status effects. Not so for traits like height & BMI.
The idea is that the parenting is caused by the parental genotype, so it gets (mis)classified as a genetic effect on the children. It's really another way of looking at "genetic nurture" - see the papers from last year.
study  bio  preprint  biodet  behavioral-gen  genetics  sib-study  GWAS  class  s-factor  iq  education  attention  disease  psychiatry  embodied  health  environmental-effects  parenting  regularizer  spearhead  multi  twitter  social  commentary  backup 
april 2019 by nhaliday
Links 3/19: Linkguini | Slate Star Codex
How did the descendants of the Mayan Indians end up in the Eastern Orthodox Church?

Does Parental Quality Matter? Study using three sources of parental variation that are mostly immune to genetic confounding find that “the strong parent-child correlation in education is largely causal”. For example, “the parent-child correlation in education is stronger with the parent that spends more time with the child”.

Before and after pictures of tech leaders like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Sergey Brin suggest they’re taking supplemental testosterone. And though it may help them keep looking young, Palladium points out that there might be other effects from having some of our most powerful businessmen on a hormone that increases risk-taking and ambition. They ask whether the new availability of testosterone supplements is prolonging Silicon Valley businessmen’s “brash entrepreneur” phase well past the point where they would normally become mature respectable elders. But it also hints at an almost opposite take: average testosterone levels have been falling for decades, so at this point these businessmen would be the only “normal” (by 1950s standards) men out there, and everyone else would be unprecedently risk-averse and boring. Paging Peter Thiel and everyone else who takes about how things “just worked better” in Eisenhower’s day.

China’s SesameCredit social monitoring system, widely portrayed as dystopian, has an 80% approval rate in China (vs. 19% neutral and 1% disapproval). The researchers admit that although all data is confidential and they are not affiliated with the Chinese government, their participants might not believe that confidently enough to answer honestly.

I know how much you guys love attacking EAs for “pathological altruism” or whatever terms you’re using nowadays, so here’s an article where rationalist community member John Beshir describes his experience getting malaria on purpose to help researchers test a vaccine.

Some evidence against the theory that missing fathers cause earlier menarche.

John Nerst of EverythingStudies’ political compass.
ratty  yvain  ssc  links  multi  biodet  behavioral-gen  regularizer  causation  contrarianism  education  correlation  parenting  developmental  direct-indirect  time  religion  christianity  eastern-europe  russia  latin-america  other-xtian  endocrine  trends  malaise  stagnation  thiel  barons  tech  sv  business  rot  zeitgeist  outcome-risk  critique  environmental-effects  poll  china  asia  authoritarianism  alt-inst  sentiment  policy  n-factor  individualism-collectivism  pro-rata  technocracy  managerial-state  civil-liberty  effective-altruism  subculture  wtf  disease  parasites-microbiome  patho-altruism  self-interest  lol  africa  experiment  medicine  expression-survival  things  dimensionality  degrees-of-freedom  sex  composition-decomposition  analytical-holistic  systematic-ad-hoc  coordination  alignment  cooperate-defect  politics  coalitions  ideology  left-wing  right-wing  summary  exit-voice  redistribution  randy-ayndy  welfare-state 
march 2019 by nhaliday
Theological differences between the Catholic Church and the Eastern Orthodox Church - Wikipedia
Did the Filioque Ruin the West?: https://contingentnotarbitrary.com/2017/06/15/the-filioque-ruined-the-west/
The theology of the filioque makes the Father and the Son equal as sources of divinity. Flattening the hierarchy implicit in the Trinity does away with the Monarchy of the Father: the family relationship becomes less patriarchal and more egalitarian. The Son, with his humanity, mercy, love and sacrifice, is no longer subordinate to the Father, while the Father – the God of the Old Testament, law and tradition – is no longer sovereign. Looks like the change would elevate egalitarianism, compassion, humanity and self-sacrifice while undermining hierarchy, rules, family and tradition. Sound familiar?
article  wiki  reference  philosophy  backup  religion  christianity  theos  ideology  comparison  nitty-gritty  intricacy  europe  the-great-west-whale  occident  russia  MENA  orient  letters  epistemic  truth  science  logic  inference  guilt-shame  volo-avolo  causation  multi  gnon  eastern-europe  roots  explanans  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  modernity  egalitarianism-hierarchy  love-hate  free-riding  cooperate-defect  gender  justice  law  tradition  legacy  parenting  ascetic  altruism  farmers-and-foragers  protestant-catholic  exegesis-hermeneutics 
april 2018 by nhaliday
Becoming a Man - Quillette
written by William Buckner

“In the puberty rites, the novices are made aware of the sacred value of food and assume the adult condition; that is, they no longer depend on their mothers and on the labor of others for nourishment. Initiation, then, is equivalent to a revelation of the sacred, of death, sexuality, and the struggle for food. Only after having acquired these dimensions of human existence does one become truly a man.” – Mircea Eliade, Rites and Symbols of Initiation: The Mysteries of Birth and Rebirth, 1958

“To be a man in most of the societies we have looked at, one must impregnate women, protect dependents from danger, and provision kith and kin.” – David D. Gilmore, Manhood in the Making, 1990

“Keep your head clear and know how to suffer like a man.” – Ernest Hemingway, The Old Man and the Sea, 1952

There are commonalities of human behavior that extend beyond any geographic or cultural boundary. Every known society has a sexual division of labor – many facets of which are ubiquitous the world over. Some activities are universally considered to be primarily, or exclusively, the responsibility of men, such as hunting large mammals, metalworking, and warfare. Other activities, such as caregiving, cooking, and preparing vegetable foods, are nearly always considered primarily the responsibility of women.

...

Across vastly different societies, with very dissimilar political systems, it is often similar sets of skills that are considered desirable for their (predominately male) leaders. A man can gain status through displays of key talents; through his ability to persuade; by developing and maintaining important social relationships; and by solving difficult problems. In his classic paper on the political systems of ‘egalitarian’ small-scale societies, anthropologist Christopher Boehm writes, “a good leader seems to be generous, brave in combat, wise in making subsistence or military decisions, apt at resolving intragroup conflicts, a good speaker, fair, impartial, tactful, reliable, and morally upright.” In his study on the Mardu hunter-gatherers of Australia, anthropologist Robert Tonkinson wrote that the highest status was given to the “cooks,” which is the title given to “the older men who prepare the many different ceremonial feasts, act as advisors and directors of most rituals (and perform the most important “big” dances), and are guardians of the caches of sacred objects.”

Anthropologist Paul Roscoe writes that some of the important skills of ‘Big Men’ in New Guinea horticulturist societies are, “courage and proficiency in war or hunting; talented oratory; ability in mediation and organization; a gift for singing, dancing, wood carving, and/or graphic artistry; the ability to transact pigs and wealth; ritual expertise; and so on.” In the volume Cooperation and Collective Action (2012), Roscoe notes further that the traits that distinguish a ‘Big Man’ are “his skills in…conflict resolution; his charisma, diplomacy, ability to plan, industriousness, and intelligence” and “his abilities in political manipulation.” In their paper on ‘The Big Man Mechanism,’ anthropologist Joseph Henrich and his colleagues describe the common pathways to status found across cultures, noting that, “In small-scale societies, the domains associated with prestige include hunting, oratory, shamanic knowledge and combat.”

...

In his book How Can I Get Through To You? (2002), author Terrence Real describes visiting a remote village of Maasai pastoralists in Tanzania. Real asked the village elders (all male) what makes a good warrior and a good man. After a vibrant discussion, one of the oldest males stood up and told Real;

I refuse to tell you what makes a good morani [warrior]. But I will tell you what makes a great morani. When the moment calls for fierceness a good morani is very ferocious. And when the moment calls for kindness, a good morani is utterly tender. Now, what makes a great morani is knowing which moment is which! (Real, 64)

This quote is also favorably cited by feminist author bell hooks in her book The Will to Change (2004). While hooks and Real offer perspectives quite different from my approach here, the words of the Massai elder illustrate an ideal conception of masculinity that may appeal to many people of diverse ideologies and cultural backgrounds. A great warrior, a great man, is discerning – not needlessly hostile nor chronically deferential, he instead recognizes the responsibilities of both defending, and caring for, his friends and family.

...

As anthropologist David G. Gilmore notes in Manhood in the Making, exhortations such as “be a man” are common across societies throughout the world. Such remarks represent the recognition that being a man came with a set of duties and responsibilities. If men failed to stay cool under pressure in the midst of hunting or warfare, and thus failed to provide for, or protect, their families and allies, this would have been devastating to their societies.

Throughout our evolutionary history, the cultures that had a sexual division of labor, and socialized males to help provide for and protect the group, would have had a better chance at survival, and would have outcompeted those societies that failed to instill such values.

Some would argue, quite reasonably, that in contemporary, industrialized, democratic societies, values associated with hunting and warfare are outmoded. Gilmore writes that, “So long as there are battles to be fought, wars to be won, heights to be scaled, hard work to be done, some of us will have to “act like men.”” Yet the challenges of modern societies for most people are often very different from those that occurred throughout much of our history.

Still, some common components of the traditional, idealized masculine identity I describe here may continue to be useful in the modern era, such as providing essential resources for the next generation of children, solving social conflicts, cultivating useful, practical skills, and obtaining socially valuable knowledge. Obviously, these traits are not, and need not be, restricted to men. But when it comes to teaching the next generation of young males what socially responsible masculinity looks like, it might be worth keeping these historical contributions in mind. Not as a standard that one should necessarily feel unduly pressured by, but as a set of productive goals and aspirations that can aid in personal development and social enrichment.

The Behavioral Ecology of Male Violence: http://quillette.com/2018/02/24/behavioral-ecology-male-violence/

“Aggressive competition for access to mates is much
more beneficial for human males than for females…”
~Georgiev et al. 1

...

To understand why this pattern is so consistent across a wide variety of culturally and geographically diverse societies, we need to start by looking at sex differences in reproductive biology.

Biologically, individuals that produce small, relatively mobile gametes (sex cells), such as sperm or pollen, are defined as male, while individuals that produce larger, less mobile gametes, such as eggs or ovules, are defined as female. Consequently, males tend to have more variance in reproductive success than females, and a greater potential reproductive output. Emperor of Morocco, Moulay Ismael the Bloodthirsty (1672–1727) was estimated to have fathered 1171 children from 500 women over the course of 32 years,6 while the maximum recorded number of offspring for a woman is 69, attributed to an unnamed 18th century Russian woman married to a man named Feodor Vassilyev.

[data]

Across a wide variety of taxa, the sex that produces smaller, mobile gametes tends to invest less in parental care than the sex that produces larger, less mobile gametes. For over 90 percent of mammalian species, male investment in their offspring ends at conception, and they provide no parental care thereafter.7 A male mammal can often increase his reproductive success by seeking to maximize mating opportunities with females, and engaging in violent competition with rival males to do so. From a fitness perspective, it may be wasteful for a male to provide parental care, as it limits his reproductive output by reducing the time and energy he spends competing for mates.
news  org:mag  org:popup  letters  scitariat  gender  gender-diff  fashun  status  peace-violence  war  alien-character  social-structure  anthropology  sapiens  meaningness  planning  long-term  parenting  big-peeps  old-anglo  quotes  stereotypes  labor  farmers-and-foragers  properties  food  ritual  s-factor  courage  martial  vitality  virtu  aristos  uncertainty  outcome-risk  conquest-empire  leadership  impro  iq  machiavelli  dark-arts  henrich  religion  theos  europe  gallic  statesmen  politics  government  law  honor  civil-liberty  sociality  temperance  patience  responsibility  reputation  britain  optimate  checklists  advice  stylized-facts  prudence  EEA  evopsych  management  track-record  competition  coalitions  personality  links  multi  nature  model-organism  sex  deep-materialism  eden  moments  male-variability  fertility  developmental  investing  ecology  EGT  humanity  energy-resources  cooperate-defect  flexibility 
april 2018 by nhaliday
The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate - Machine Intelligence Research Institute
How Deviant Recent AI Progress Lumpiness?: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/03/how-deviant-recent-ai-progress-lumpiness.html
I seem to disagree with most people working on artificial intelligence (AI) risk. While with them I expect rapid change once AI is powerful enough to replace most all human workers, I expect this change to be spread across the world, not concentrated in one main localized AI system. The efforts of AI risk folks to design AI systems whose values won’t drift might stop global AI value drift if there is just one main AI system. But doing so in a world of many AI systems at similar abilities levels requires strong global governance of AI systems, which is a tall order anytime soon. Their continued focus on preventing single system drift suggests that they expect a single main AI system.

The main reason that I understand to expect relatively local AI progress is if AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages. If one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams.

However, we have a vast literature on the lumpiness of research and innovation more generally, which clearly says that usually most of the value in innovation is found in many small innovations. We have also so far seen this in computer science (CS) and AI. Even if there have been historical examples where much value was found in particular big innovations, such as nuclear weapons or the origin of humans.

Apparently many people associated with AI risk, including the star machine learning (ML) researchers that they often idolize, find it intuitively plausible that AI and ML progress is exceptionally lumpy. Such researchers often say, “My project is ‘huge’, and will soon do it all!” A decade ago my ex-co-blogger Eliezer Yudkowsky and I argued here on this blog about our differing estimates of AI progress lumpiness. He recently offered Alpha Go Zero as evidence of AI lumpiness:

...

In this post, let me give another example (beyond two big lumps in a row) of what could change my mind. I offer a clear observable indicator, for which data should have available now: deviant citation lumpiness in recent ML research. One standard measure of research impact is citations; bigger lumpier developments gain more citations that smaller ones. And it turns out that the lumpiness of citations is remarkably constant across research fields! See this March 3 paper in Science:

I Still Don’t Get Foom: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2014/07/30855.html
All of which makes it look like I’m the one with the problem; everyone else gets it. Even so, I’m gonna try to explain my problem again, in the hope that someone can explain where I’m going wrong. Here goes.

“Intelligence” just means an ability to do mental/calculation tasks, averaged over many tasks. I’ve always found it plausible that machines will continue to do more kinds of mental tasks better, and eventually be better at pretty much all of them. But what I’ve found it hard to accept is a “local explosion.” This is where a single machine, built by a single project using only a tiny fraction of world resources, goes in a short time (e.g., weeks) from being so weak that it is usually beat by a single human with the usual tools, to so powerful that it easily takes over the entire world. Yes, smarter machines may greatly increase overall economic growth rates, and yes such growth may be uneven. But this degree of unevenness seems implausibly extreme. Let me explain.

If we count by economic value, humans now do most of the mental tasks worth doing. Evolution has given us a brain chock-full of useful well-honed modules. And the fact that most mental tasks require the use of many modules is enough to explain why some of us are smarter than others. (There’d be a common “g” factor in task performance even with independent module variation.) Our modules aren’t that different from those of other primates, but because ours are different enough to allow lots of cultural transmission of innovation, we’ve out-competed other primates handily.

We’ve had computers for over seventy years, and have slowly build up libraries of software modules for them. Like brains, computers do mental tasks by combining modules. An important mental task is software innovation: improving these modules, adding new ones, and finding new ways to combine them. Ideas for new modules are sometimes inspired by the modules we see in our brains. When an innovation team finds an improvement, they usually sell access to it, which gives them resources for new projects, and lets others take advantage of their innovation.

...

In Bostrom’s graph above the line for an initially small project and system has a much higher slope, which means that it becomes in a short time vastly better at software innovation. Better than the entire rest of the world put together. And my key question is: how could it plausibly do that? Since the rest of the world is already trying the best it can to usefully innovate, and to abstract to promote such innovation, what exactly gives one small project such a huge advantage to let it innovate so much faster?

...

In fact, most software innovation seems to be driven by hardware advances, instead of innovator creativity. Apparently, good ideas are available but must usually wait until hardware is cheap enough to support them.

Yes, sometimes architectural choices have wider impacts. But I was an artificial intelligence researcher for nine years, ending twenty years ago, and I never saw an architecture choice make a huge difference, relative to other reasonable architecture choices. For most big systems, overall architecture matters a lot less than getting lots of detail right. Researchers have long wandered the space of architectures, mostly rediscovering variations on what others found before.

Some hope that a small project could be much better at innovation because it specializes in that topic, and much better understands new theoretical insights into the basic nature of innovation or intelligence. But I don’t think those are actually topics where one can usefully specialize much, or where we’ll find much useful new theory. To be much better at learning, the project would instead have to be much better at hundreds of specific kinds of learning. Which is very hard to do in a small project.

What does Bostrom say? Alas, not much. He distinguishes several advantages of digital over human minds, but all software shares those advantages. Bostrom also distinguishes five paths: better software, brain emulation (i.e., ems), biological enhancement of humans, brain-computer interfaces, and better human organizations. He doesn’t think interfaces would work, and sees organizations and better biology as only playing supporting roles.

...

Similarly, while you might imagine someday standing in awe in front of a super intelligence that embodies all the power of a new age, superintelligence just isn’t the sort of thing that one project could invent. As “intelligence” is just the name we give to being better at many mental tasks by using many good mental modules, there’s no one place to improve it. So I can’t see a plausible way one project could increase its intelligence vastly faster than could the rest of the world.

Takeoff speeds: https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/
Futurists have argued for years about whether the development of AGI will look more like a breakthrough within a small group (“fast takeoff”), or a continuous acceleration distributed across the broader economy or a large firm (“slow takeoff”).

I currently think a slow takeoff is significantly more likely. This post explains some of my reasoning and why I think it matters. Mostly the post lists arguments I often hear for a fast takeoff and explains why I don’t find them compelling.

(Note: this is not a post about whether an intelligence explosion will occur. That seems very likely to me. Quantitatively I expect it to go along these lines. So e.g. while I disagree with many of the claims and assumptions in Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics, I don’t disagree with the central thesis or with most of the arguments.)
ratty  lesswrong  subculture  miri-cfar  ai  risk  ai-control  futurism  books  debate  hanson  big-yud  prediction  contrarianism  singularity  local-global  speed  speedometer  time  frontier  distribution  smoothness  shift  pdf  economics  track-record  abstraction  analogy  links  wiki  list  evolution  mutation  selection  optimization  search  iteration-recursion  intelligence  metameta  chart  analysis  number  ems  coordination  cooperate-defect  death  values  formal-values  flux-stasis  philosophy  farmers-and-foragers  malthus  scale  studying  innovation  insight  conceptual-vocab  growth-econ  egalitarianism-hierarchy  inequality  authoritarianism  wealth  near-far  rationality  epistemic  biases  cycles  competition  arms  zero-positive-sum  deterrence  war  peace-violence  winner-take-all  technology  moloch  multi  plots  research  science  publishing  humanity  labor  marginal  urban-rural  structure  composition-decomposition  complex-systems  gregory-clark  decentralized  heavy-industry  magnitude  multiplicative  endogenous-exogenous  models  uncertainty  decision-theory  time-prefer 
april 2018 by nhaliday
Religiosity and Fertility in the United States: The Role of Fertility Intentions
Using data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), we show that women who report that religion is “very important” in their everyday life have both higher fertility and higher intended fertility than those saying religion is “somewhat important” or “not important.” Factors such as unwanted fertility, age at childbearing, or degree of fertility postponement seem not to contribute to religiosity differentials in fertility. This answer prompts more fundamental questions: what is the nature of this greater “religiosity”? And why do the more religious want more children? We show that those saying religion is more important have more traditional gender and family attitudes and that these attitudinal differences account for a substantial part of the fertility differential. We speculate regarding other contributing causes.

Religion, Religiousness and Fertility in the U.S. and in Europe: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2006-013.pdf
2006

RELIGIONS, FERTILITY, AND GROWTH IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/iere.12291
Using Southeast Asian censuses, we show empirically that being Catholic, Buddhist, or Muslim significantly raises fertility, especially for couples with intermediate to high education levels. With these estimates, we identify the parameters of a structural model. Catholicism is strongly pro‐child (increasing total spending on children), followed by Buddhism, whereas Islam is more pro‐birth (redirecting spending from quality to quantity). Pro‐child religions depress growth in its early stages by lowering savings and labor supply. In the later stages of growth, pro‐birth religions impede human capital accumulation.
study  sociology  religion  theos  usa  correlation  fertility  eric-kaufmann  causation  general-survey  demographics  phalanges  intervention  gender  tradition  social-norms  parenting  values  politics  ideology  multi  europe  EU  rot  nihil  data  time-series  distribution  christianity  protestant-catholic  other-xtian  the-great-west-whale  occident  expression-survival  poll  inequality  pro-rata  mediterranean  eastern-europe  wealth  econ-metrics  farmers-and-foragers  buddhism  islam  asia  developing-world  human-capital  investing  developmental  number  quantitative-qualitative  quality  world  natural-experiment  field-study 
february 2018 by nhaliday
The weirdest people in the world?
Abstract: Behavioral scientists routinely publish broad claims about human psychology and behavior in the world’s top journals based on samples drawn entirely from Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD) societies. Researchers – often implicitly – assume that either there is little variation across human populations, or that these “standard subjects” are as representative of the species as any other population. Are these assumptions justified? Here, our review of the comparative database from across the behavioral sciences suggests both that there is substantial variability in experimental results across populations and that WEIRD subjects are particularly unusual compared with the rest of the species – frequent outliers. The domains reviewed include visual perception, fairness, cooperation, spatial reasoning, categorization and inferential induction, moral reasoning, reasoning styles, self-concepts and related motivations, and the heritability of IQ. The findings suggest that members of WEIRD societies, including young children, are among the least representative populations one could find for generalizing about humans. Many of these findings involve domains that are associated with fundamental aspects of psychology, motivation, and behavior – hence, there are no obvious a priori grounds for claiming that a particular behavioral phenomenon is universal based on sampling from a single subpopulation. Overall, these empirical patterns suggests that we need to be less cavalier in addressing questions of human nature on the basis of data drawn from this particularly thin, and rather unusual, slice of humanity. We close by proposing ways to structurally re-organize the behavioral sciences to best tackle these challenges.

https://twitter.com/JoHenrich/status/1143322655178801152
https://archive.is/D2QZ5
When I discuss my concern that psychologists and behavioral economists rely on a thin and peculiar slice of humanity in order to understand HUMAN psychology, they often reply with the strong intuition that they (but perhaps not others) are studying “basic processes,” etc.
To assess how difficult it is to identify these “basic process” without both evolutionary theory and serious cross-cultural research, let’s put aside psychology and focus on physiology and anatomy. Surely, those are “basic.” #WEIRDPeopleProblem
...
pdf  study  microfoundations  anthropology  cultural-dynamics  sociology  psychology  social-psych  cog-psych  iq  biodet  behavioral-gen  variance-components  psychometrics  psych-architecture  visuo  spatial  morality  individualism-collectivism  n-factor  justice  egalitarianism-hierarchy  cooperate-defect  outliers  homo-hetero  evopsych  generalization  henrich  europe  the-great-west-whale  occident  organizing  🌞  universalism-particularism  applicability-prereqs  hari-seldon  extrema  comparison  GT-101  ecology  EGT  reinforcement  anglo  language  gavisti  heavy-industry  marginal  absolute-relative  reason  stylized-facts  nature  systematic-ad-hoc  analytical-holistic  science  modernity  behavioral-econ  s:*  illusion  cool  hmm  coordination  self-interest  social-norms  population  density  humanity  sapiens  farmers-and-foragers  free-riding  anglosphere  cost-benefit  china  asia  sinosphere  MENA  world  developing-world  neurons  theory-of-mind  network-structure  nordic  orient  signum  biases  usa  optimism  hypocrisy  humility  within-without  volo-avolo  domes 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Fish on Friday | West Hunter
There are parts of Europe, Switzerland and Bavaria for example, that are seriously iodine deficient. This used to be a problem. I wonder if fish on Friday ameliorated it: A three-ounce serving size of cod provides your body with 99 micrograms of iodine, or 66% of the recommended amount per day.

Thinking further, it wasn’t just Fridays: there were ~130 days a years when the Catholic Church banned flesh.

Gwern on modern iodine-deficiency: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/10/28/fish-on-friday/#comment-97137
population surveys indicate lots of people are iodine-insufficient even in the US or UK where the problem should’ve been permanently solved a century ago
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  ideas  speculation  sapiens  europe  the-great-west-whale  history  medieval  germanic  religion  christianity  protestant-catholic  institutions  food  diet  nutrition  metabolic  iq  neuro  unintended-consequences  multi  gwern  poast  hmm  planning  parenting  developmental  public-health  gotchas  biodet  deep-materialism  health  embodied-street-fighting  ritual  roots  explanans 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Do Parents Value School Effectiveness?
Parents prefer schools that enroll high-achieving peers, and these schools generate larger improvements in short- and long-run student outcomes. We find no relationship between preferences and school effectiveness after controlling for peer quality.
study  economics  sociology  education  human-capital  parenting  correlation  supply-demand  ranking  higher-ed  phalanges  impetus  field-study  nyc  usa  northeast  judgement 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Free to Leave? A Welfare Analysis of Divorce Regimes - American Economic Association
Calibrating the model to match key moments for the 1940 cohort and conditioning solely on gender, our ex ante welfare analysis finds that women fare better under mutual consent whereas men prefer a unilateral system. Conditioning as well on initial productivity (expected income), we find that the top three quintiles of men and the top two quintiles of women prefer unilateral divorce.

The impact of divorce laws on the equilibrium in the marriage market: http://www.anamreynoso.com/assets/AR_JMP_latest.pdf
Adoption of no-fault divorce -> more assortative mating + more permanent singlehood, especially among educated women

Losers and Winners: The Financial Consequences of Separation and Divorce for Men: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2657417
Contrary to conventional thinking, the majority of partnered men in the United States lose economic status when their unions dissolve. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this analysis shows that for most men the primary source of economic decline after union dissolution is their inability to fully compensate for the loss of their partner's income. A secondary source of economic decline is an increase in compulsory and voluntary support payments. Welfare state tax and transfer mechanisms have a much smaller overall impact on changes in men's living standards following separation. Although most men experience a decline in living standards following union dissolution, men's outcomes are heterogeneous, and the minority of men who relied on their partners for less than one-fifth of pre-dissolution income typically gain from separation and divorce. The data show a clear trend toward greater economic interdependence in American partnerships, and this trend appears to increase the proportion of men who suffer a reduced standard of living following separation.
study  economics  macro  sociology  gender  gender-diff  sex  life-history  compensation  class  models  multi  developmental  volo-avolo  counterfactual  intervention  civil-liberty  unintended-consequences  natural-experiment  endo-exo  parenting  endogenous-exogenous  cost-benefit  policy  law  pdf  assortative-mating  distribution  equilibrium  trends  institutions  social-structure  chart  branches  beginning-middle-end 
june 2017 by nhaliday
The Dream Hoarders: How America's Top 20 Percent Perpetuates Inequality | Boston Review
https://twitter.com/pnin1957/status/876835822842130433
https://archive.is/1Noyi
this is ominous
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/01/the_upper_middle_class_is_ruining_all_that_is_great_about_america.html
Has the Democratic Party Gotten Too Rich for Its Own Good: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/opinion/democratic-party-rich-thomas-edsall.html
Saving the American Dream: https://www.commentarymagazine.com/articles/saving-american-dream/
It’s not just about the people at the top
- Amy Wax

ow can we arrange things so that more people with different levels of affluence can prosper and live meaningful lives? How can we make the advantages that the rich now “hoard” more widely available, thus reducing their incentive to separate themselves? Although these goals are elusive and difficult for any society to attain, ours can probably do better. But the changes required would be far bolder than the tepid ones Reeves proposes, which do little to disrupt current “structures of privilege.” And more dramatic reforms might also advance the causes he holds dear, including enhancing mobility and reducing inequality.
So here goes my laundry list.

Let’s start with Reeves’s proposal to ban legacy admissions. Not only would this increase fairness, but it would discourage private contributions. This would, in turn, promote the worthy goal of defunding the Ivies and other selective universities, which have become counterproductive sites of snobbery, dogma, and progressive indoctrination. Save for the kind of scientific research that benefits everyone, they don’t need any more money and could do with much less.

But we shouldn’t stop there. As suggested by the late Justice Antonin Scalia during oral argument in the Grutter affirmative-action case, selective admissions should simply be abolished and students admitted by lottery, except for math and hard sciences, for which a simple test can determine entrance. The steep pyramid of colleges, in which the affluent crowd monopolizes prestigious institutions, will be immediately flattened, and the need for affirmative action would disappear. In this respect, our system would simply mimic those in northern European countries like Holland and Germany, where enrolling in the university nearest to home is the usual practice and there is no clear elite pecking order. And since fewer than a fifth of colleges take less than half their applicants, with only a tiny group much more competitive, this change would have no effect on most institutions of higher learning.

While we’re at it, we should give up on the fetish of college for all by significantly reducing the number of students attending four-year academic programs to no more than 10 to 15 percent of high-school graduates. The government should dial back on student loans and grants to universities, except for scientific research.

That step, which would reduce the burden of educational debt, is not as drastic as it appears, since many students who start college end up dropping out and only 25 percent of high-school graduates manage to obtain a four-year degree. At the same time, we should step up the effort to recruit highly qualified low-income students to the most selective colleges across the country—something that Caroline Hoxby’s research tells us is not currently taking place. Finally, we should copy some of Western Europe’s most successful economies by tracking more students into job-related nonacademic programs, and by redirecting the private and public money that now goes to universities to creating and maintaining such programs.

More broadly, the amounts freed up by defunding elite colleges and private schools should be used to help average Americans. The Gates Foundation and other rich private philanthropies should stop chasing after educational schemes of dubious value and devote their billions to improving community colleges, supporting the people who attend them, and dramatically expanding vocational programs.

Although Reeves does mention vocational education, he does so only in passing. That option should receive renewed emphasis. And private donors should provide grants to thousands of students of modest means, including stipends for rent and living expenses, to enable them to do the summer internships that Reeves claims are now so important to getting ahead.
news  org:mag  letters  rhetoric  left-wing  books  usa  politics  class  inequality  economics  higher-ed  race  multi  twitter  social  commentary  org:lite  journos-pundits  coalitions  org:rec  trends  elections  data  compensation  strategy  gnon  unaffiliated  backup  envy  coming-apart  murray  mobility  class-warfare  parenting  housing  s-factor  assortative-mating  biodet  egalitarianism-hierarchy  legacy  education  dignity  life-history  demographics  age-generation  intervention  attaq  contrarianism  spearhead  elite  nyc  reflection  order-disorder  duty  civic  discrimination  proposal  alt-inst  labor  noblesse-oblige  pennsylvania  nascent-state  counter-revolution  academia  money  monetary-fiscal 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Where Is Fertility Low, and Since When? – In a State of Migration – Medium
org:med  econotariat  wonkish  demographics  population  fertility  usa  trends  migration  within-group  longevity  time-series  roots  multi  org:ngo  intervention  track-record  europe  gallic  policy  money  education  higher-ed  china  asia  polis  developing-world  israel  canada  britain  anglo  germanic  links  survey  summary  long-short-run  effect-size  null-result  pessimism  monetary-fiscal  cost-benefit  data  increase-decrease  microfoundations  news  org:data  org:lite  gender  hari-seldon  gnon  org:popup  org:mag  org:foreign  attaq  journos-pundits  correlation  causation  korea  tradition  politics  right-wing  values  twitter  social  commentary  backup  labor  economics  parenting 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Dadly adaptations | West Hunter
If we understood how this works, we might find that individuals and populations vary in their propensity to show paternal care ( for genetic reasons). I would guess that paternal care was ancestral in modern humans, but it’s easy enough to lose something like this when selective pressures no longer favor it. Wolves have paternal care, but dogs have lost it.

This could have something to do with better health in married men. High testosterone levels aren’t cost-free.

It’s possible that various modern environmental factors interfere with the triggers for dadliness. That would hardly be surprising, since we don’t really know how they work.

All this has a number of interesting social implications. Let’s see how many of them you guys can spot.

Poles in the Tent: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/07/09/poles-in-the-tent/
I’m considering a different question: what was the impact of men’s contribution on their children’s survival and fitness? That’s not quite the same as the number of calories contributed. Food is not a single undifferentiated quantity: it’s a category, including a number of different kinds that can’t be freely substituted for each other. Proteins, fats, and carbohydrates can all serve as fuel, but you need protein to build tissue. And amino acids, the building blocks of proteins, are not all fungible. Some we can’t synthesize (essential amino acids) others can only be synthesized from a limited set of precursors, etc. Edible plants often have suboptimal mixes of amino acids ( too many Qs, not enough Us) , but I’ve never heard of this being a problem with meat. Then you have to consider essential fatty acids, vitamins, and trace elements.

In principle, if high-quality protein were the long pole in the tent, male provisioning of meat, which we see in chimpanzees, might matter quite a bit more than you would think from the number of calories alone. I’m not say that is necessarily the case, but it might be, and it’s worth checking out.

Sexual selection vs job specialization: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/10/02/sexual-selection-vs-job-specialization/
Pretty much every species is subject to sexual selection: heritable characteristics that lead to more mates or better mates can be favored by natural selection. Typically, sexual selection favors different strategies in males and females. Generally, males can gain fitness with increased mating opportunities, while females gain more from high-quality mates or mates that confer resources. Since the variance in reproduction is usually greater in males than females, sexual selection is usually stronger in males, although it exists and is significant in both sexes.

Usually, though, males and females of a given species have very similar ways of making a living. A male deer and a female deer both eat grass or arugula or whatever. Sexual selection may drive them to evolve in different directions, but finding something to eat mostly drives them in the same direction.

Humans are an exception. In the long past, men hunted and women gathered. The mix varied: in Arctic regions, men produce almost all the food (while women made and repaired gear, as well as raising children). In groups like the Bushmen, women produced most of the calories, but done rightly you would count more than calories: if most of the local plants had low protein or low-quality protein (wrong amino acid mix), meat from hunting could be important out of proportion to its caloric value.

This has been going for a long time, so there must have been selection for traits that aided provisioning ability in each sex. Those job-related selective pressures probably changed with time. For example, male strength may have become less valuable when the Bushmen developed poison arrows.

I was looking for an intelligent discussion of this question – but I ran into this and couldn’t force myself to read further: ” It should not simply be assumed that the exclusion of women from hunting rests upon “natural” physiological differences. ”

God give me strength.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/10/02/sexual-selection-vs-job-specialization/#comment-96323
What does Greg think about the “plows vs hoes” theory? (As seen here, although Sarah Constantin didn’t invent it.)

The claim is that some societies adopted farming (Europe, the Middle East, Asia) while some societies adopted horticulture (Oceana, sub-Saharan Africa, various primitive peoples) and that this had an affect on gender relations.

Basically: farming is backbreaking work, which favours males, giving them a lot of social capital. You end up with a patriarchal kind of society, where the men do stuff and the women are mostly valuable for raising offspring.

...

It’s kinda true, in places. There is a connection I haven’t seen explicated: the ‘hoe culture” has to have some factor keeping population density low, so that labor is scarcer than land. Tropical diseases like malaria might be part of that. Then again, crops like yams don’t store well, better to keep them in the ground until eating. That means it’s hard to tax people – easy with grain bins. No taxes -> no State – > high local violence. At times, VD may also help limit density, cf Africa’s ‘sterility belt’.

I am not a Moron: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/11/03/i-am-not-a-moron/
So said Augustin Fuentes on Twitter, a few days ago. He’s the same guy that said “Genes don’t do anything by themselves; epigenetics and complex metabolic and developmental systems are at play in how bodies work. The roundworm C. elegans has about 20,000 genes while humans have about 23,000 genes, yet it is pretty obvious that humans are more than 15-percent more complex than roundworms. So while genes matter, they are only a small part of the whole evolutionary picture. Focusing just on DNA won’t get you anywhere.”

Fuentes was claiming that we don’t really know that, back in prehistory, men did most of the hunting while women gathered.

...

Someone (Will@Evolving _Moloch) criticized this as a good candidate for the most misleading paragraph ever written. The folly of youth! When you’ve been around as long as I have, sonny, you will realize how hard it is to set records for stupidity.

Fuente’s para is multidimensional crap, of course. People used to hunt animals like red deer, or bison, or eland: sometimes mammoths or rhinos. Big animals. Back in the day, our ancestors used stabbing spears, which go back at least half a million years. Stand-off weapons like atlatls, or bows, or JSOW, are relatively recent. Hunters took big risks & suffered frequent injuries. Men are almost twice as strong as women, particularly in upper-body strength, which is what matters in spear-chucking. They’re also faster, which can be very important which your ambush fails.
So men did the hunting. This isn’t complicated.

Which contemporary hunter-gather societies followed this pattern, had men do almost all of the big-game hunting? All of them.

...

Look, feminists aren’t happy with human nature, the one that actually exists and is the product of long-term evolutionary pressures. Too bad for them. When they say stuff like “It should not simply be assumed that the exclusion of women from hunting rests upon “natural” physiological differences. “, they just sound like fools.. ‘natural physiological differences” exist. They’re as obvious a punch in the kisser.

Suppose you wanted to construct a society with effective sexual equality – which is probably just a mistake, but suppose it. The most effective approach would surely entail knowing and taking into account how the world actually ticks. You’d be better off understanding that about 6,000 genes (out of 20,000) show significant expression differences between the sexes, than by pretending that we’re all the same. You would to make it so: by hook or by crook, by state force and genetic engineering.

Similarly, if you want to minimize war, pretending that people aren’t warlike is a poor start – about as sensible as fighting forest fires by pretending that trees aren’t flammable.

My advice to Augustin Fuentes, about not being a moron: show, don’t tell.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/11/03/i-am-not-a-moron/#comment-97721
Since DNA is the enduring part, the part that gets transmitted from one generation to the next, the part that contains the instructions/program that determine development and specify everything – he’s wrong. Stupid, like you. Well, to be fair, ignorant as well: there are technical aspects of genetics that Agustin Fuentes is unlikely to know anything about, things that are almost never covered in the typical education of an anthropologist. I doubt if he knows what a Fisher wave is, or anything about selfish genetic elements, or coalescent theory, or for that matter the breeder’s equation.

There are a number of complex technical subjects, things that at least some people understand: those people can do stuff that the man in the street can’t. In most cases, amateurs don’t jump in and pretend to know what’s going on. For example you don’t hear much concerning amateur opinions concerning detonation physics or group theory. But they’re happy to have opinions about natural selection, even though they know fuck-all about it.

https://twitter.com/FinchesofDarwin/status/922924692389818368
https://archive.is/AcBgh
"Significantly fewer females are present at hunts than males...females tend to appear at the hunting site once the capture has been made..."

“Women in Tech”: https://bloodyshovel.wordpress.com/2017/10/26/women-in-tech/
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  ideas  pop-diff  biodet  behavioral-gen  endocrine  parenting  life-history  speculation  time-preference  temperance  health  counter-revolution  rot  zeitgeist  environmental-effects  science-anxiety  legacy  incentives  sapiens  multi  farmers-and-foragers  food  gender  gender-diff  intricacy  dimensionality  agriculture  selection  symmetry  comparison  leviathan  cultural-dynamics  peace-violence  taxes  broad-econ  microfoundations  africa  europe  asia  MENA  world  developing-world  🌞  order-disorder  population  density  scale  stylized-facts  cocktail  anthropology  roots  parasites-microbiome  phalanges  things  analogy  direction  rant  EEA  evopsych  is-ought  attaq  data  genetics  genomics  war  people  track-record  poast  population-genetics  selfish-gene  magnitude  twitter  social  commentary  backup  quotes  gnon  right-wing  aphorism  sv  tech  identity-politics  envy  allodium  outcome-risk  hari-seldon 
june 2017 by nhaliday
FROM OBEDIENCE TO AUTONOMY CHANGES IN TRAITS DESIRED IN CHILDREN, 1924–1978 | Public Opinion Quarterly | Oxford Academic
https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/863031645930172417
Mothers want extraversion over conscientiousness or intelligence for their children: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886917304865

What Should Children Learn? Americans’ Changing Socialization Values, 1986–2018: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2378023119879016
Preferences for hard work increased steadily whereas preferences for autonomy, the top-ranked quality throughout the period, declined. There was some indication of enduring self-expression values, as support for compassion increased and its relative importance to hard work stayed stable. Decomposition analyses show valuing hard work would have been even greater without demographic changes like an increase in college graduates. Aligning with earlier research, valuing obedience in children continued to decline.
study  sociology  psychology  social-psych  parenting  trends  zeitgeist  rot  the-bones  phalanges  values  legacy  personality  piracy  history  mostly-modern  usa  demographics  temperance  duty  westminster  religion  class  nationalism-globalism  pdf  modernity  multi  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  properties  ranking  individualism-collectivism  expression-survival  farmers-and-foragers  open-closed  extra-introversion  iq  discipline  flux-stasis 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Rescuing drowning children: How to know when someone is in trouble in the water.
In 10 percent of drownings, adults are nearby but have no idea the victim is dying. Here’s what to look for.
news  org:lite  human-bean  howto  embodied  safety  swimming  h2o  short-circuit  parenting  fluid 
may 2017 by nhaliday
China's Lost Generation: Changes in Beliefs and their Intergenerational Transmission
We find that members of the “lost generation” who missed out on college because they were born just a year or two too early believe that effort pays off to a much lesser degree, even 40 years into their adulthood. However, they invested more in their children’s education, and transmitted less of their changed beliefs to the next generation, suggesting attempts to safeguard their children from sharing their misfortunes.
study  economics  sociology  history  mostly-modern  china  asia  sinosphere  education  higher-ed  natural-experiment  human-capital  parenting  legacy  intervention  cliometrics 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Unenumerated: Why the industrial revolution?
unaffiliated  szabo  history  early-modern  spearhead  gregory-clark  roots  industrial-revolution  divergence  culture  society  anthropology  age-of-discovery  developing-world  protestant-catholic  embedded-cognition  commentary  chart  multi  institutions  agriculture  europe  asia  the-great-west-whale  britain  anglosphere  values  china  hanson  gwern  econotariat  marginal-rev  debate  economics  growth-econ  speculation  sinosphere  oceans  capital  capitalism  🎩  transportation  law  iron-age  mediterranean  the-classics  broad-econ  pseudoE  cultural-dynamics  galor-like  tradeoffs  parenting  developmental  life-history  malthus  zeitgeist  wealth-of-nations  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  property-rights  conquest-empire  modernity  political-econ  microfoundations  ideas  network-structure  meta:reading  writing 
may 2017 by nhaliday
The Internet Guide to Funding College and Section 529 College Savings Plans. Savingforcollege.com
https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/882227467263586304
https://archive.is/AYsxl
It looks to me like best thing to do is accrue home equity (since it's partly shielded for financial aid purposes)&otherwise grin n bear it
It's pretty obvious that the 521 break mostly is a transfer from federal government to colleges and state budgets not to rich households.
personal-finance  investing  parenting  higher-ed  money  temperance  howto  reference  database  guide  human-bean  multi  twitter  social  commentary  ratty  unaffiliated  housing  backup  org:fin 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Educational Romanticism & Economic Development | pseudoerasmus
https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/852339296358940672
deleeted

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/943238170312929280
https://archive.is/p5hRA

Did Nations that Boosted Education Grow Faster?: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/did_nations_tha.html
On average, no relationship. The trendline points down slightly, but for the time being let's just call it a draw. It's a well-known fact that countries that started the 1960's with high education levels grew faster (example), but this graph is about something different. This graph shows that countries that increased their education levels did not grow faster.

Where has all the education gone?: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1016.2704&rep=rep1&type=pdf

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/948052794681966593
https://archive.is/kjxqp

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/950952412503822337
https://archive.is/3YPic

https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/862961420065001472
http://hanushek.stanford.edu/publications/schooling-educational-achievement-and-latin-american-growth-puzzle

The Case Against Education: What's Taking So Long, Bryan Caplan: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/03/the_case_agains_9.html

The World Might Be Better Off Without College for Everyone: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/01/whats-college-good-for/546590/
Students don't seem to be getting much out of higher education.
- Bryan Caplan

College: Capital or Signal?: http://www.economicmanblog.com/2017/02/25/college-capital-or-signal/
After his review of the literature, Caplan concludes that roughly 80% of the earnings effect from college comes from signalling, with only 20% the result of skill building. Put this together with his earlier observations about the private returns to college education, along with its exploding cost, and Caplan thinks that the social returns are negative. The policy implications of this will come as very bitter medicine for friends of Bernie Sanders.

Doubting the Null Hypothesis: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/doubting-the-null-hypothesis/

Is higher education/college in the US more about skill-building or about signaling?: https://www.quora.com/Is-higher-education-college-in-the-US-more-about-skill-building-or-about-signaling
ballpark: 50% signaling, 30% selection, 20% addition to human capital
more signaling in art history, more human capital in engineering, more selection in philosophy

Econ Duel! Is Education Signaling or Skill Building?: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/03/econ-duel-is-education-signaling-or-skill-building.html
Marginal Revolution University has a brand new feature, Econ Duel! Our first Econ Duel features Tyler and me debating the question, Is education more about signaling or skill building?

Against Tulip Subsidies: https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/06/06/against-tulip-subsidies/

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/01/read-the-case-against-education.html

https://nintil.com/2018/02/05/notes-on-the-case-against-education/

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018-02-19-0000/bryan-caplan-case-against-education-review

https://spottedtoad.wordpress.com/2018/02/12/the-case-against-education/
Most American public school kids are low-income; about half are non-white; most are fairly low skilled academically. For most American kids, the majority of the waking hours they spend not engaged with electronic media are at school; the majority of their in-person relationships are at school; the most important relationships they have with an adult who is not their parent is with their teacher. For their parents, the most important in-person source of community is also their kids’ school. Young people need adult mirrors, models, mentors, and in an earlier era these might have been provided by extended families, but in our own era this all falls upon schools.

Caplan gestures towards work and earlier labor force participation as alternatives to school for many if not all kids. And I empathize: the years that I would point to as making me who I am were ones where I was working, not studying. But they were years spent working in schools, as a teacher or assistant. If schools did not exist, is there an alternative that we genuinely believe would arise to draw young people into the life of their community?

...

It is not an accident that the state that spends the least on education is Utah, where the LDS church can take up some of the slack for schools, while next door Wyoming spends almost the most of any state at $16,000 per student. Education is now the one surviving binding principle of the society as a whole, the one black box everyone will agree to, and so while you can press for less subsidization of education by government, and for privatization of costs, as Caplan does, there’s really nothing people can substitute for it. This is partially about signaling, sure, but it’s also because outside of schools and a few religious enclaves our society is but a darkling plain beset by winds.

This doesn’t mean that we should leave Caplan’s critique on the shelf. Much of education is focused on an insane, zero-sum race for finite rewards. Much of schooling does push kids, parents, schools, and school systems towards a solution ad absurdum, where anything less than 100 percent of kids headed to a doctorate and the big coding job in the sky is a sign of failure of everyone concerned.

But let’s approach this with an eye towards the limits of the possible and the reality of diminishing returns.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/01/27/poison-ivy-halls/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/01/27/poison-ivy-halls/#comment-101293
The real reason the left would support Moander: the usual reason. because he’s an enemy.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/01/bright-college-days-part-i/
I have a problem in thinking about education, since my preferences and personal educational experience are atypical, so I can’t just gut it out. On the other hand, knowing that puts me ahead of a lot of people that seem convinced that all real people, including all Arab cabdrivers, think and feel just as they do.

One important fact, relevant to this review. I don’t like Caplan. I think he doesn’t understand – can’t understand – human nature, and although that sometimes confers a different and interesting perspective, it’s not a royal road to truth. Nor would I want to share a foxhole with him: I don’t trust him. So if I say that I agree with some parts of this book, you should believe me.

...

Caplan doesn’t talk about possible ways of improving knowledge acquisition and retention. Maybe he thinks that’s impossible, and he may be right, at least within a conventional universe of possibilities. That’s a bit outside of his thesis, anyhow. Me it interests.

He dismisses objections from educational psychologists who claim that studying a subject improves you in subtle ways even after you forget all of it. I too find that hard to believe. On the other hand, it looks to me as if poorly-digested fragments of information picked up in college have some effect on public policy later in life: it is no coincidence that most prominent people in public life (at a given moment) share a lot of the same ideas. People are vaguely remembering the same crap from the same sources, or related sources. It’s correlated crap, which has a much stronger effect than random crap.

These widespread new ideas are usually wrong. They come from somewhere – in part, from higher education. Along this line, Caplan thinks that college has only a weak ideological effect on students. I don’t believe he is correct. In part, this is because most people use a shifting standard: what’s liberal or conservative gets redefined over time. At any given time a population is roughly half left and half right – but the content of those labels changes a lot. There’s a shift.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/01/bright-college-days-part-i/#comment-101492
I put it this way, a while ago: “When you think about it, falsehoods, stupid crap, make the best group identifiers, because anyone might agree with you when you’re obviously right. Signing up to clear nonsense is a better test of group loyalty. A true friend is with you when you’re wrong. Ideally, not just wrong, but barking mad, rolling around in your own vomit wrong.”
--
You just explained the Credo quia absurdum doctrine. I always wondered if it was nonsense. It is not.
--
Someone on twitter caught it first – got all the way to “sliding down the razor blade of life”. Which I explained is now called “transitioning”

What Catholics believe: https://theweek.com/articles/781925/what-catholics-believe
We believe all of these things, fantastical as they may sound, and we believe them for what we consider good reasons, well attested by history, consistent with the most exacting standards of logic. We will profess them in this place of wrath and tears until the extraordinary event referenced above, for which men and women have hoped and prayed for nearly 2,000 years, comes to pass.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/05/bright-college-days-part-ii/
According to Caplan, employers are looking for conformity, conscientiousness, and intelligence. They use completion of high school, or completion of college as a sign of conformity and conscientiousness. College certainly looks as if it’s mostly signaling, and it’s hugely expensive signaling, in terms of college costs and foregone earnings.

But inserting conformity into the merit function is tricky: things become important signals… because they’re important signals. Otherwise useful actions are contraindicated because they’re “not done”. For example, test scores convey useful information. They could help show that an applicant is smart even though he attended a mediocre school – the same role they play in college admissions. But employers seldom request test scores, and although applicants may provide them, few do. Caplan says ” The word on the street… [more]
econotariat  pseudoE  broad-econ  economics  econometrics  growth-econ  education  human-capital  labor  correlation  null-result  world  developing-world  commentary  spearhead  garett-jones  twitter  social  pic  discussion  econ-metrics  rindermann-thompson  causation  endo-exo  biodet  data  chart  knowledge  article  wealth-of-nations  latin-america  study  path-dependence  divergence  🎩  curvature  microfoundations  multi  convexity-curvature  nonlinearity  hanushek  volo-avolo  endogenous-exogenous  backup  pdf  people  policy  monetary-fiscal  wonkish  cracker-econ  news  org:mag  local-global  higher-ed  impetus  signaling  rhetoric  contrarianism  domestication  propaganda  ratty  hanson  books  review  recommendations  distribution  externalities  cost-benefit  summary  natural-experiment  critique  rent-seeking  mobility  supply-demand  intervention  shift  social-choice  government  incentives  interests  q-n-a  street-fighting  objektbuch  X-not-about-Y  marginal-rev  c:***  qra  info-econ  info-dynamics  org:econlib  yvain  ssc  politics  medicine  stories 
april 2017 by nhaliday
School Lunches -- Usurping Parents' Responsibility | National Review
If the program is reauthorized, it will inculcate an entire generation with the belief that government, not their parents or themselves, is primarily responsible for what they eat every day. Mom making breakfast and handing off a homemade lunch on the way out the door is an experience millions of children will miss, not necessarily because of adverse family circumstances, but because the government has made it much easier and cheaper to forgo that duty. “It’s one less thing for them [the parents] to do in the morning,” commented the Chicago teacher.

https://spottedtoad.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/school-lunched/
news  org:mag  right-wing  rhetoric  government  policy  redistribution  individualism-collectivism  parenting  food  education  managerial-state  social-capital  society  scale  civic  current-events  madisonian  welfare-state  multi  ratty  unaffiliated 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Islam’s Most Eloquent Apostate - WSJ
The West’s obsession with ‘terror’ has been a mistake, she argues. Dawa, the ideology behind it, is a broader threat.
news  org:rec  profile  islam  ideology  culture-war  culture  politics  rhetoric  religion  terrorism  usa  europe  civic  civil-liberty  parenting  migration  assimilation 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Do Muslim Immigrants Assimilate? - Niskanen Center
- surveys studies for US and Europe (UK and France)
- very slanted perspective ofc

Poll of British Muslims Reveals Startling Views, but Some Question Methodology: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/15/world/europe/poll-british-muslims.html
Among the poll results were relatively high levels of disapproval for homosexuality, with 52 percent of respondents saying it should be illegal and 47 percent saying gay people should not work as teachers. On the issue of women’s rights, 39 percent agreed with the statement “wives should always obey their husbands.”

About one-third of respondents said they would tell the police if they knew someone who was getting involved with supporting terrorism in Syria. The same proportion refused to condemn people who take part in violence against those who mock the Prophet Muhammad. Almost one quarter said they favored replacing the British legal system with Islamic law.

British Muslims: The New Victorians: https://gnxp.nofe.me/2009/05/07/british-muslims-the-new-victorians/

Clarifying the Shrinking Liberal Core: Visible Minorities, Immigrants, and Vote Choice in Canada: https://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2012/Thomas.pdf
Though visible minority Canadians are significantly more likely to support expansive immigration policies, this issue does not appear to drive their electoral support of the Liberals. Though minorities report being more socially conservative than Canadians of European origin, issues related to this, notably same-sex marriage, do not appear to have a meaningful effect on changes in minority support for the Liberals from 2004 on (Gidengil et al., 2006).

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/914641389463498753
https://archive.is/ZfhAS
Very unexpected... I've never seen non-Euros who issue-poll as socially conservative vote for left-wing parties!

Why are African-Americans such loyal Democrats when they are so ideologically diverse?: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/28/can-trump-win-black-votes-what-we-know-from-5-decades-of-black-voting-data/
Despite this history, there is still no clean alignment between how blacks describe their political ideology and which candidates they vote for. As recently as 2012, studies show that 47 percent of blacks identify as liberal and 45 percent as conservative, but 93 percent voted for the reelection of Barack Obama.

There are two explanations for this incongruence. The first centers on racial unity: Black voters use the group’s well-being as a proxy for their own interests; the “black utility heuristic.” Other studies suggest racial identity and social pressure shape blacks into an electoral monolith. The idea is that blacks vote similarly as a show of solidarity.

The second explanation is that, despite their ideological diversity, black voters prioritize civil rights issues. In other words, the polarized civil rights stances of the parties have turned blacks into single-issue voters. This results in blacks being a “captured minority,” wherein they have no viable alternative to the Democratic Party.

...

1. A candidate’s race matters to black men, not black women.
2. There were differences on the best approach to reducing racial inequality.
3. The violent crime rate has a negligible effect on middle class blacks’ voting choices.
4. Conservative positions on social issues actually didn’t matter.
5. Experience and predictability matters to black parents.

cf Faith and Family and Next Generation Left here: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:f6857abdbdd2
org:ngo  trump  politics  wonkish  culture-war  religion  islam  migration  data  links  europe  gallic  usa  poll  sociology  rhetoric  britain  canada  assimilation  identity-politics  current-events  diversity  culture  replication  debate  summary  study  survey  discrimination  multi  news  org:rec  values  terrorism  law  iraq-syria  gender  sex  sexuality  pro-rata  hmm  pdf  polisci  backup  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  coalitions  impetus  civic  hypocrisy  homo-hetero  chart  ideology  randy-ayndy  nl-and-so-can-you  race  africa  inequality  envy  analysis  gender-diff  ethnocentrism  parenting  christianity  crime  criminology  tribalism  us-them  correlation  gnxp  scitariat  germanic 
april 2017 by nhaliday
The Peculiar Populism of Donald Trump - The New York Times
Instead, he points out, the United States has gone in two seemingly opposite directions over the past 15 years, becoming “significantly more secular-rational, while losing ground on self-expressive values.”

Whites living in low density, exurban and rural areas are driving the shift back toward survival values, Wilkinson argues.

https://niskanencenter.org/blog/tale-two-moralities-part-one-regional-inequality-moral-polarization/

How Fear of Falling Explains the Love of Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/20/opinion/how-fear-of-falling-explains-the-love-of-trump.html
In these conversations, she said,

it wouldn’t take long before another topic spontaneously came up, blacks, their problems, their call on government help. At the bottom of the imagined slide was the situation of blacks — teen single moms, kids out in the street at night, slacking off in school, drugs, drink. So, yes, the feeling was, “if we don’t turn this thing around, that could be us.”

Why Fathers Leave Their Children: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/opinion/why-fathers-leave-their-children.html
news  org:rec  trump  2016-election  politics  postmortem  values  things  culture  individualism-collectivism  expression-survival  populism  polisci  wonkish  race  culture-war  current-events  money  inequality  polarization  housing  ideology  left-wing  nationalism-globalism  chart  zeitgeist  journos-pundits  multi  dignity  life-history  coming-apart  rot  trends  parenting  sociology  gender  obama  class  malaise  urban-rural  diversity  demographics  org:ngo  winner-take-all 
april 2017 by nhaliday
The Morality of Sperm Donation - Gwern.net
There is a third benefit. Surprisingly, sperm donor-assisted pregnancies result in 1/5th the number of birth defects as pregnancies in general. (The CDC tells me that the defect rate is 1 in 33 or ~3%, and that birth defects in 2006 directly killed 5,819 infants.) Much of this large benefit stems from the paternal age effect - older fathers’ sperm result in more birth defects, lowered IQ, linked to autism, etc. To the extent that a sperm donor donating displaces, at the margin, the conception of future offspring at an elder age, donation directly reduces birth defects and the other mentioned effects.

Indeed, given the mixed data on whether sperm count rates are falling with time and the more reliable data on the striking increases with paternal age of negative effects like birth defects or autism - perhaps due to increased mutations4 - it may be worthwhile even for non-donators to bank their sperm for later use. A quick perusal of one sperm bank’s prices suggests that a 20-year old could store a large sample of his sperm until he is 40 for ~$5000 with the ultimate artificial insemination adding <$4000 to the final cost; if this resulted in cutting the risk of his children being autistic by 30%, would it be worthwhile? Perhaps. It is worth considering.
ratty  gwern  hmm  sex  genetics  genetic-load  paternal-age  parenting  developmental  disease  data  effective-altruism  arbitrage  cost-benefit  analysis  faq  planning 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Prevalence and architecture of de novo mutations in developmental disorders : Nature
We estimate that 42% of our cohort carry pathogenic DNMs in coding sequences; approximately half of these DNMs disrupt gene function and the remainder result in altered protein function. We estimate that developmental disorders caused by DNMs have an average prevalence of 1 in 213 to 1 in 448 births, depending on parental age. Given current global demographics, this equates to almost 400,000 children born per year.
pdf  study  org:nat  genetics  genomics  genetic-load  paternal-age  hmm  developmental  parenting  aging  biodet  GWAS  🌞  👽  science-anxiety  autism  epidemiology  deep-materialism  public-health  rot  age-generation 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Considerations On Cost Disease | Slate Star Codex
ratty  yvain  ssc  economics  education  higher-ed  healthcare  efficiency  money  analysis  inequality  faq  trends  winner-take-all  multi  reddit  social  hn  commentary  data  visualization  rent-seeking  econotariat  2017  p:null  wonkish  malaise  cost-disease  news  org:mag  org:bv  noahpinion  org:biz  chart  zeitgeist  the-bones  housing  org:ngo  org:anglo  automation  labor  marginal-rev  scott-sumner  market-failure  gnon  counter-revolution  cracker-econ  techtariat  gray-econ  randy-ayndy  poast  list  links  supply-demand  government  policy  regulation  econ-productivity  planning  long-term  parenting  cost-benefit  time-series  increase-decrease  flux-stasis 
february 2017 by nhaliday
When Children Rule: Parenting in Modern Families
To explain the connection between these trends and the transformation in family relationships we develop a novel model of parenting styles that highlights the importance of competition within the family. The key intuition is that the rise in relative earnings of wives increased competition between spouses for the love and affection of their children while the decline in family size reduced competition between children for resources from their parents. The combined effect has empowered children within the household and allowed them to capture an increasing share of the household surplus over the past hundred years.
study  economics  fertility  parenting  gender  trends  values  incentives  supply-demand  models  biophysical-econ  legacy  sociology  demographic-transition  🎩  stylized-facts  broad-econ  social-norms  rot  roots  modernity  intervention  wonkish  microfoundations  hari-seldon 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Confounder Of The Day: How Sexy Your Parents Were | Slate Star Codex
- "paternal age effect" just a selection effect (men w/ issues end up having kids later due to difficulty finding a mate)
- one other suggested inconsistent explanation: spermatogenic selfish-gene effect
- interesting discussion of sperm freezing
yvain  ssc  psychiatry  medicine  aging  developmental  study  summary  genetic-load  hmm  biodet  causation  planning  parenting  paternal-age  disease  sex  gender  selfish-gene  gwern  confounding  EGT  epidemiology  null-result  sib-study  ratty  behavioral-gen  cooperate-defect  age-generation 
february 2017 by nhaliday
In our genes
The D4 dopamine receptor (DRD4) locus may be a model system for understanding the relationship between genetic variation and human cultural diversity. It has been the subject of intense interest in psychiatry, because bearers of one variant are at increased risk for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (1). A survey of world frequencies of DRD4 alleles has shown striking differences among populations (2), with population differences greater than those of most neutral markers. In this issue of PNAS Ding et al. (3) provide a detailed molecular portrait of world diversity at the DRD4 locus. They show that the allele associated with ADHD has increased a lot in frequency within the last few thousands to tens of thousands of years, although it has probably been present in our ancestors for hundreds of thousands or even millions of years.

...

Because the prominent phenotypic effects of 7R are in males, we need to ask what is the niche in human societies for males who are energetic, impulsive (i.e., unpredictable), and noncompliant? Whereas tests of hypotheses ought to be careful and conservative, generation of hypotheses ought to be speculative and free-ranging. There is a tradition of caution approaching self-censorship in discussions of human biological diversity, but we will break that tradition in what follows.

https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/827182543594086400
http://ipsr.berkeley.edu/uploads/department_events/1455839539-b80d181fb169f70b4/Dopamine-system%20genes%20and%20cultural%20acquisition.pdf
study  west-hunter  sapiens  biodet  discipline  attention  neuro  genetics  QTL  the-monster  gender  survey  things  🌞  social-structure  anthropology  ethnography  multi  twitter  social  discussion  scitariat  evopsych  org:nat  candidate-gene  personality  c:*  neuro-nitgrit  epidemiology  sociology  spearhead  behavioral-gen  wealth-of-nations  broad-econ  cultural-dynamics  regional-scatter-plots  deep-materialism  pdf  social-norms  speculation  pop-diff  🎩  n-factor  psychology  cog-psych  microfoundations  censorship  theory-practice  bio  gnon  hari-seldon  explanans  europe  the-great-west-whale  occident  china  asia  sinosphere  orient  ecology  EGT  equilibrium  context  farmers-and-foragers  agriculture  history  antiquity  parenting  life-history  strategy  class  population  density  welfare-state  competition  war  peace-violence  cost-benefit  signaling  labor  incentives  leviathan  modernity  sex  sociality  explore-exploit 
february 2017 by nhaliday
The Experts | West Hunter
It seems to me that not all people called experts actually are. In fact, there are whole fields in which none of the experts are experts. But let’s try to define terms.

...

Along these lines, I’ve read Tetlock’s book, Expert Political Judgment. A funny, funny, book. I will have more to say on that later.

USSR: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/10/20/the-experts/#comment-60760
iraq war:
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/10/20/the-experts/#comment-60653
Of course it is how Bush sold the war. Selling the war involving statements to the press, leaks, etc, not a Congressional resolution, which is the product of that selling job. Leaks to that lying slut at the New York Times, Judith Miller, for example.

Actively seeking a nuclear weapons capacity would have meant making fissionables, or building facilities to make fissionables. That hadn’t happened, and it was impossible for Iraq to have done so, given that any such effort had to be undetectable (because we hadn’t detected it with our ‘national technical means’, spy satellites and such) and given their limited resources in men, money, and materiel. Iraq had done nothing along these lines. Absolutely nothing.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/10/20/the-experts/#comment-60674
You don’t even know what yellow cake is. It is true that Saddam had had a nuclear program before the Gulf War, although it had not come too close to a weapon – but that program had been destroyed, and could not be rebuilt A. in a way invisible to our spy satellites and B with no money, because of sanctions.

The 550 tons of uranium oxide- unenriched uranium oxide – was a leftover from the earlier program. Under UN seal, and those seals had not been broken. Without enrichment, and without a means of enrichment, it was useless.

What’s the point of pushing this nonsense? somebody paying you?

The President was a moron, the Government of the United States proved itself a pack of fools,as did the New York Times, the Washington Post, Congress, virtually all of the pundits, etc. etc. And undoubtedly you were a fool as well: you might as well deal with it, because the truth is not going to go away.

interesting discussion of battle fatigue and desertion: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/10/20/the-experts/#comment-60709
Actually, I don’t know how Freudian those Army psychologists were in 1944: they may have been useless in some other way. The gist is that in the European theater, for example in the Normandy campaign, the US had a much higher rate of psychological casualties than the Germans. “Both British and American psychiatrists were struck by the ‘apparently few cases of psychoneurosis’ among German prisoners of war. ” They were lower in the Red Army, as well.

In the Pacific theater, combat fatigue was even worse for US soldiers, but rare among the Japanese.

...

The infantry took most of the casualties – it was a very dangerous, unpleasant job. People didn’t like being in the infantry. In the American Army, and to a lesser extent, the British Army, getting into medical evacuation channels was a way to avoid getting killed. Not so much in the German Army: suspected malingerers were shot. In the American Army, they weren’t. That’s the most importance difference between the Germans and Americans affecting the ‘combat fatigue’ rate – the Germans didn’t put up with it. They did have some procedures, but they all ended up putting the guy back in combat fairly rapidly.

Even for desertion, only ONE American soldier was executed. In the Germany Army, 20,000. It makes a difference. We ran a soft war: since we ended up with whole divisions out of the fight, we probably would have done better (won faster, lost fewer guys) if we had been harsher on malingerers and deserters.

more on emdees: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/10/20/the-experts/#comment-60697
As for your idea that doctors improve with age, I doubt it. So do some other people: for example, in this article in Annals of Internal Medicine (Systematic review: the relationship between clinical experience and quality of health care), they say “Overall, 32 of the 62 (52%) evaluations reported decreasing performance with increasing years in practice for all outcomes assessed; 13 (21%) reported decreasing performance with increasing experience for some outcomes but no association for others; 2 (3%) reported that performance initially increased with increasing experience, peaked, and then decreased (concave relationship); 13 (21%) reported no association; 1 (2%) reported increasing performance with increasing years in practice for some outcomes but no association for others; and 1 (2%) reported increasing performance with increasing years in practice for all outcomes. Results did not change substantially when the analysis was restricted to studies that used the most objective outcome measures.

I don’t how well that 25-year old doctor with an IQ of 160 would do, never having met anyone like that. I do know a mathematician who has an IQ around 160 and was married to a doctor, but she* dumped him after he put her through med school and came down with lymphoma.

And that libertarian friend I mentioned, who said that although quarantine would have worked against AIDS, better that we didn’t, despite the extra hundreds of thousands of deaths that resulted – why, he’s a doctor.

*all the other fifth-years in her program also dumped their spouses. Catching?

climate change: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/10/20/the-experts/#comment-60787
I think that predicting climate is difficult, considering the complex feedback loops, but I know that almost every right-wing thing said about it that I have checked out turned out to be false.
west-hunter  rant  discussion  social-science  error  history  psychology  military  war  multi  mostly-modern  bounded-cognition  martial  crooked  meta:war  realness  being-right  emotion  scitariat  info-dynamics  poast  world-war  truth  tetlock  alt-inst  expert-experience  epidemiology  public-health  spreading  disease  sex  sexuality  iraq-syria  gender  gender-diff  parenting  usa  europe  germanic  psychiatry  courage  medicine  meta:medicine  age-generation  aging  climate-change  track-record  russia  communism  economics  correlation  nuclear  arms  randy-ayndy  study  evidence-based  data  time  reason  ability-competence  complex-systems  politics  ideology  roots  government  elite  impetus 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Federal University | West Hunter
If, as a pilot program, an example, the government set up a new university, mindlessly copying a decent state school from that golden era, like Berkeley or Wisconsin (or maybe from a bit earlier, since we probably want to avoid riots too), I doubt if it would cost a lot more. All those extra administrative personnel? Just don’t hire them. We could manage this by making the project top secret (actually, special access) – that lets you violate a lot of the useless bureaucratic rules, rather like being Uber.

Some things might cost more. If you want a medical school, you have to pay the professors competitive salaries (and MDs make much more than they did back in those days). But then, we could used taped lectures, online courses, etc.

It probably wouldn’t work for long, since politicians would be irresistibly temped to add on useless crap, like preferential admission for Skoptys, or whatever they’re called nowadays.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/federal-university/#comment-77371
“Between 1975 and 2005, total spending by American higher educational institutions, stated in constant dollars, tripled, to more than $325 billion per year. Over the same period, the faculty-to-student ratio has remained fairly constant, at approximately fifteen or sixteen students per instructor. One thing that has changed, dramatically, is the administrator-per-student ratio. In 1975, colleges employed one administrator for every eighty-four students and one professional staffer—admissions officers, information technology specialists, and the like—for every fifty students. By 2005, the administrator-to-student ratio had dropped to one administrator for every sixty-eight students while the ratio of professional staffers had dropped to one for every twenty-one students. “

Higher Education In Mass. Enters Full Predatory Mode: http://news.wgbh.org/2016/12/08/local-news/higher-education-mass-enters-full-predatory-mode
academic administrators
https://home.isi.org/somewhere-between-jeremiad-and-eulogy

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/federal-university/#comment-77423
I would put the kind of knowledge that you acquire in college into four categories. Obviously majors differ in their mix of these four humours. I’m thinking of economic/GDP/health type impacts.

Things that don’t matter. Like neutral genetic variation.
Things that make you better at doing something useful. Ideally, significantly better – at least better at the task than if you’d just spend an hour or two reading the manual.

Things that make you better at inventing techniques in category 2. What Edison, George Green, or Ramanujan learned in college. Overlaps with #2.

Things that ain’t so. Falsehoods. Ones with practical implications. There are obviously some majors that mostly inculcate falsehoods.

Now some of these can be used for signalling, but the content of education matters (in the broad sense – college but also reading Popular Mechanics). If it didn’t we’d all be living in caves and licking mammoth fat off our fingers.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/03/30/federal-university/#comment-77528
It can also simply be ignored: lots of Silicon Valley companies give pretty explicit IQ tests without ever bothering to get them approved.

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/870450589955756032
https://archive.is/7Xm5y
I used to think this, but now I wonder if the degree is used more as a signal of willingness to put up with institutional BS rather than IQ.
--
Yeah, Griggs is terrible, ham-fisted law, shd be overturned. But overrated as a cause of the edu bubble

- thinks its mostly subsidies not ban on IQ testing
- still getting good tests for cognitive ability plus non-cognitive habits, then moving to new equilibrium should be enough right?

Modern Universities Are An Exercise in Insanity: http://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2018/01/modern-universities-are-exercise-in.html

My alma mater was Brigham Young University-Hawaii. If you are a member of the LDS church attending the school, then in 2017 your tuition was $3,000 a semester. If you are not a member, it was $5,000 for one semester. The school has a special program where you can graduate in three years by taking three semesters each year, and that costs $8,000 and $16,000 a year for LDS and non-member students respectively.

...

The average tenure track professor makes $40 an hour. If you were to employ her as a private tutor at the cost of $60 an hour, and had four hours with her a week, and did that for 14 weeks (that's the length of an average college course folks) that is about $3,400.

Were you to employ three such professor-tutors, that would be about $10,200, or a bit over $20,000 a year. In four years you would have racked up $80,000 in costs. But this is still $30,000 less than the total for the 'cost conscious' universities. It is a quarter of what you would pay for Trinity.
west-hunter  rant  education  higher-ed  institutions  government  proposal  discussion  policy  rent-seeking  scitariat  efficiency  cost-disease  counter-revolution  alt-inst  regulation  ideas  multi  unaffiliated  broad-econ  wonkish  other-xtian  debt  cost-benefit  analysis  money  fertility  intervention  hmm  planning  long-term  parenting  knowledge  signaling  human-capital  truth  realness  poast  pro-rata  gender  sv  tech  recruiting  iq  pinker  trends  critique  news  current-events  vampire-squid  org:ngo  academia  technocracy  gnon  right-wing  twitter  social  speculation  roots  malaise  law  business  industrial-org  psychometrics  race  discrimination  diversity  cycles  impetus  chart  sex  sexuality  judgement  gig-econ 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Judith Rich Harris: Why Do People Believe that Birth Order Has Important Effects on Personality?
Probing Birth-Order Effects on Narrow Traits Using Specification-Curve Analysis: http://sci-hub.tw/http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0956797617723726
Although specification-curve analysis clearly confirmed the previously reported birth-order effect on intellect, we found no meaningful effects on life satisfaction, locus of control, interpersonal trust, reciprocity, risk taking, patience, impulsivity, or political orientation. The lack of meaningful birth-order effects on self-reports of personality was not limited to broad traits but also held for more narrowly defined characteristics.
Examining the effects of birth order on personality: http://www.pnas.org/content/112/46/14224.abstract
no effect on personality, small effect (-) on IQ
spearhead  essay  critique  reflection  social-science  psychology  social-psych  developmental  personality  attaq  westminster  faq  biodet  culture-war  behavioral-gen  multi  study  cog-psych  environmental-effects  parenting  iq  🌞  org:nat  realness  paternal-age  politics  ideology  emotion  patience  discipline  self-control  trust  altruism  polisci  age-generation  aging 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Early, Late or Never? When Does Parental Education Impact Child Outcomes? - Dickson - 2016 - The Economic Journal - Wiley Online Library
We estimate the causal effect of parents' education on their children's education and examine the timing of the impact. We identify the causal effect by exploiting the exogenous shift in (parents’) education levels induced by the 1972 minimum school leaving age reform in England. Increasing parental education has a positive causal effect on children's outcomes that is evident in preschool assessments at age 4 and continues to be visible up to and including high-stakes examinations taken at age 16. Children of parents affected by the reform attain results around 0.1 standard deviations higher than those whose parents were not impacted.
study  parenting  education  economics  causation  counterfactual  hmm  regularizer  natural-experiment  britain  🎩  policy  endo-exo  intervention  effect-size  environmental-effects  endogenous-exogenous 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Heritability of Behavioral Problems in 7-Year Olds Based on Shared and Unique Aspects of Parental Views | SpringerLink
The proportion of rater shared and rater specific heritability can be translated into genetic correlations between parental views and inform the design and interpretation of results of molecular genetic studies. Genetic correlations were nearly or above 0.7 for all CBCL based psychopathology scales. Such large genetic correlations suggest two practical guidelines for genome-wide association studies (GWAS): when studies have collected data from either fathers or mothers, the shared genetic aetiology in parental ratings indicates that is possible to analyze paternal and maternal assessments in a single GWAS or meta-analysis. Secondly, if a study has collected information from both parents, a gain in statistical power may be realized in GWAS by the simultaneous analysis of the data.
study  parenting  genetics  methodology  variance-components  GWAS  biodet 
december 2016 by nhaliday
The Effects of Computers on Children's Social Development and School Participation: Evidence from a Randomized Control Experiment
Children in the treatment group are more likely to report having a social networking site, but also report spending more time communicating with their friends and interacting with their friends in person. There is no evidence that computer ownership displaces participation in after-school activities such as sports teams or clubs or reduces school participation and engagement.
study  economics  education  parenting  developmental  technology  policy  wonkish  intervention  internet  field-study 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Information Processing: Random microworlds: the mystery of nonshared environment
Nonshared environmental contributions to development, which are the largest environmental contributions, are effectively random. They are not amenable to control, either by parents or policy makers. Note, this picture -- that each child creates their own environment, or experiences an effectively random one -- does not seem to support the hypothesis that observed group differences in cognitive ability are primarily of non-genetic origin. Nor does it suggest that any simple intervention (for example, equalizing average SES levels) will eliminate group differences. However, it's fair to say our understanding of these complex questions is limited.

Technical remark: if n is large, and factors uncorrelated, the observed environmental variation in a population will be suppressed as n^{-1/2} relative to the maximum environmental effect. That means that the best or worst case scenarios for environmental effect, although hard to achieve, could be surprisingly large. In other words, if the environment is perfectly suited to the child, there could be an anomalously large non-genetic effect, relative to the variance observed in the population as a whole. Of course, for large n these perfect conditions are also harder to arrange. (As a super-high investment parent I am actually involved in attempting to fine tune n-vectors ;-)

Environmental effects cause regression to the mean of a child relative to the parental midpoint. Parents who are well above average likely benefited from a good match between their environment and individual proclivities, as well as from good genes. This match is difficult to replicate for their children -- only genes are passed on with certainty.
hsu  methodology  variance-components  speculation  parenting  thinking  🌞  frontier  environmental-effects  models  developmental  scitariat  signal-noise  biodet  nibble  s:*  roots  genetics  behavioral-gen  random  volo-avolo  composition-decomposition  systematic-ad-hoc 
november 2016 by nhaliday
Information Processing: Assortative mating, regression and all that: offspring IQ vs parental midpoint
Assuming parental midpoint of n SD above the population average, the kids' IQ will be normally distributed about a mean which is around +.6n with residual SD of about 12 points. (The .6 could actually be anywhere in the range (.5, .7), but the SD doesn't vary much from choice of empirical inputs.)

possible to calculate the residual variance from first principles?

Some data on regression: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2010/10/some-data-on-regression.html
hsu  parenting  iq  regression-to-mean  street-fighting  explanation  methodology  assortative-mating  scitariat  variance-components  biodet  nibble  behavioral-gen  multi  data  stories  education  acm 
november 2016 by nhaliday
Talkin’ ’bout their generations | West Hunter
According to the Decode results, mothers contribute 15 mutations, regardless of age, while men contribute 25 + 2*(g-20) mutations, when g is the average paternal age. As I pointed out earlier, if g is the same in both sexes, the average number of mutations is just 2g, which makes for 2 mutations per calendar year. I’ve been checking out average maternal age: it doesn’t vary much. The lowest I’ve seen was 26, the highest 30, so 28 is a reasonable number. So far, in the data we’ve gathered, the population with the highest paternal age was in Gambia, with an average paternal age of 47. If we assume that the average maternal age is 28 (which look about right from the graph: I haven’t digitized it yet) then the average kid would receive 94 new mutations (15 maternal, 79 paternal). With an average generation length of 37.5 years (the average of 28 and 47), that makes for 2.5 mutations per calendar year: about 15% higher than you would see in most populations, where the gap between average maternal and paternal age is not nearly as large.

A Gambia-sized gap would result in a noticeably higher rate of neutral genetic divergence. If it had existed long enough you might be able to notice it, but I think there’s a better chance of seeing this effect in Australian Aborigines, who had high average paternal age and might have had it for a long time. Other than the Australians, I would guess that all the old-dad societies are relatively recent.

The higher mutational load is not just a consequence of the higher per-year mutation rate in these old-dad societies – since generations are longer, there is less selection per calendar year (considering that most selection acts early in life). The number of mutations per generation is probably the most important number. I found some numbers for Polar Eskimos, hunter-gatherers (they gather snow) in a tough environment: average maternal age was 27, average paternal age was 32, for an average generation length of 29.5. They’d have 64 mutations a generation: the per-generation rate in Gambia is 47% higher.

There are also qualitative differences in selection: selection is weaker in childhood and stronger in midlife in an old-dad society, as Henry pointed out. So that situation should select for longer life, except that’s hard to manage in the presence of higher-than-usual genetic load.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/10/19/base-substitutions-and-deletions/
According to Jim Crow”s 2006 article, base substitutions are mostly (overwhelmingly) from males and increase with paternal age, but small deletions are contributed about equally by males and females, with no noticeable age effect. Probably the deletions happen during meiosis.

So, with a huge gene like those involved in Duchenne’s muscular dystrophy or neurofibromatosis I, which have many exons (79 for dystrophin), many of the mutations are caused by deletions. The paternal age effect is weaker for those syndromes (since less than half of the causal mutations are base substitutions)

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/08/26/gerontocratic-polygyny/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/09/05/obvious-yessss-it-was-obvious/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/08/22/paternal-age/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/09/17/gambia/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/09/16/paternal-age-and-the-force-of-mortality/
No surprises here save one. While selection for survival should extend male lifespans by 10 to 20 years in the case of old fathers, selection for survival before the age of reproduction is much weaker in the the case of older fathers. A prediction is that adolescent and young male death rates should be higher in old father societies because selection is weaker. I never realized that.

Hamilton’s theory does not describe human life history very well, as Rogers shows in his Figure 16.1 and discusses in the text. Human female fertility ceases long before the theory predicts that it should and humans live much longer. The reconciliation certainly has to do with kin selection or indirect selection. For example Kris Hawkes pushes the “grandmother hypothesis” according to which females cease reproduction and instead work for their daughters’ children. If she is right this grandmother effect selected for the prolonged human lifespan, and the long lifespan of males is a side-effect of selection for long life in females.
west-hunter  objektbuch  genetics  genetic-load  developmental  paternal-age  epidemiology  science-anxiety  scitariat  multi  social-structure  life-history  mutation  🌞  effect-size  data  ideas  speculation  methodology  gender  gender-diff  sex  africa  recent-selection  pop-diff  kinship  selection  population-genetics  electromag  longevity  aging  iq  intelligence  neuro  eden  explanans  age-generation  parenting 
november 2016 by nhaliday
Two Questions about Convergence | askblog
I've thought about this a bit too (whether maladapted parents will be willing to CRISPR their own genetic legacy away partially)
econotariat  enhancement  growth-econ  economics  parenting  speculation  cracker-econ  🌞  🎩  insight  path-dependence  divergence 
november 2016 by nhaliday
The Financial Burden of Having Children and Fertility Differentials Across Development and Life Stages: Evidence from Satisfaction Data | SpringerLink
To address this challenge, we focus our attention on the peculiar movement of satisfaction in the financial domain of life, which is measured by standardizing financial satisfaction by overall life satisfaction, and perform regression analyses using World and European Integrated Values Survey. The results show that the negative impact of having an additional child on satisfaction becomes particularly greater in the financial domain as income increases and total fertility rate (TFR) decreases. The results also indicate that having children offers a sense of financial security to the elderly in high TFR countries while this is not the case in lower TFR countries. These results support the general idea that the heavier financial burden of having children is a major cause of fertility decline and provide policy implications to find a way out of extremely low fertility.
study  demographics  economics  class  world  comparison  fertility  behavioral-econ  biophysical-econ  legacy  sociology  broad-econ  general-survey  cost-benefit  money  chart  roots  causation  parenting  data  poll  values  nitty-gritty  solid-study  demographic-transition  correlation  marginal  emotion  meaningness  zeitgeist  rot  the-bones  explanation  phalanges  dysgenics  modernity  microfoundations  intervention  wonkish  explanans  hari-seldon  happy-sad  nascent-state  policy 
october 2016 by nhaliday
« earlier      
per page:    204080120160

bundles : soft

related tags

2016-election  :/  ability-competence  abortion-contraception-embryo  absolute-relative  abstraction  academia  acm  acmtariat  advertising  advice  aesthetics  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  aging  agri-mindset  agriculture  ai  ai-control  akrasia  albion  algorithms  alien-character  alignment  allodium  alt-inst  altruism  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anglo  anglosphere  anomie  anthropic  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  apollonian-dionysian  applicability-prereqs  arbitrage  aristos  arms  art  article  ascetic  asia  assimilation  assortative-mating  attaq  attention  audio  authoritarianism  autism  automation  aversion  axelrod  axioms  backup  barons  beginning-middle-end  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  being-right  best-practices  biases  big-peeps  big-yud  bio  biodet  biophysical-econ  biotech  blog  books  bostrom  bounded-cognition  branches  britain  broad-econ  buddhism  business  c:*  c:***  california  canada  candidate-gene  canon  capital  capitalism  carcinisation  cardio  career  causation  censorship  charity  chart  checklists  chemistry  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  cjones-like  class  class-warfare  clever-rats  climate-change  cliometrics  coalitions  coarse-fine  cocktail  cog-psych  cohesion  coming-apart  commentary  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  concept  conceptual-vocab  confounding  conquest-empire  context  contrarianism  control  convexity-curvature  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  corporation  correlation  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  counterfactual  coupling-cohesion  courage  cracker-econ  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  critique  crooked  crux  cultural-dynamics  culture  culture-war  current-events  curvature  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  darwinian  data  data-science  database  death  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  decision-theory  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  density  detail-architecture  deterrence  developing-world  developmental  diet  dignity  dimensionality  direct-indirect  direction  dirty-hands  discipline  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  divergence  diversity  domestication  douthatish  drama  duty  dysgenics  early-modern  earth  eastern-europe  ecology  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  eden  eden-heaven  education  EEA  effect-size  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  EGT  elections  electromag  elite  embedded-cognition  embodied  embodied-cognition  embodied-pack  embodied-street-fighting  emotion  empirical  ems  endo-exo  endocrine  endogenous-exogenous  endurance  energy-resources  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  environment  environmental-effects  envy  epidemiology  epigenetics  epistemic  equilibrium  eric-kaufmann  error  essay  estimate  ethics  ethnocentrism  ethnography  EU  europe  evidence-based  evolution  evopsych  exegesis-hermeneutics  existence  exit-voice  experiment  expert-experience  explanans  explanation  explore-exploit  expression-survival  externalities  extra-introversion  extrema  faq  farmers-and-foragers  fashun  fermi  fertility  fiction  field-study  finance  fisher  fitness  flexibility  fluid  flux-stasis  flynn  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  formal-values  free-riding  frontier  futurism  gallic  galor-like  garett-jones  gavisti  gender  gender-diff  general-survey  generalization  genetic-correlation  genetic-load  genetics  genomics  geography  geometry  germanic  giants  gibbon  gig-econ  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnxp  good-evil  google  gotchas  government  grad-school  gray-econ  gregory-clark  group-selection  growth-econ  GT-101  guide  guilt-shame  GWAS  gwern  h2o  habit  haidt  hanson  hanushek  happy-sad  hard-tech  hardware  hari-seldon  harvard  health  healthcare  heavy-industry  henrich  heterodox  hidden-motives  higher-ed  history  hive-mind  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  honor  housing  howto  hsu  human-bean  human-capital  humanity  humility  hypochondria  hypocrisy  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  iidness  illusion  immune  impact  impetus  impro  incentives  increase-decrease  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  inference  info-dynamics  info-econ  inhibition  innovation  input-output  insight  institutions  integrity  intelligence  interests  internet  intervention  interview  intricacy  intuition  investigative-journo  investing  iq  iraq-syria  iron-age  is-ought  islam  israel  iteration-recursion  japan  jobs  journos-pundits  judgement  justice  kinship  knowledge  korea  labor  language  large-factor  latin-america  law  leadership  learning  left-wing  legacy  legibility  len:long  len:short  lesswrong  letters  leviathan  life-history  lifehack  linguistics  links  list  literature  local-global  logic  lol  long-short-run  long-term  longevity  longform  longitudinal  love-hate  machiavelli  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  male-variability  malthus  management  managerial-state  maps  marginal  marginal-rev  market-failure  markets  martial  math  meaningness  measurement  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memes(ew)  MENA  mena4  mendel-randomization  meta-analysis  meta:medicine  meta:reading  meta:science  meta:war  metabolic  metameta  methodology  micro  microfoundations  midwest  migration  military  miri-cfar  missing-heritability  mobility  model-organism  models  modernity  moloch  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  money-for-time  mooc  morality  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  murray  mutation  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  near-far  network-structure  neuro  neuro-nitgrit  neurons  new-religion  news  nibble  nihil  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  noahpinion  noblesse-oblige  nonlinearity  nordic  northeast  nostalgia  nuclear  null-result  number  nutrition  nyc  obama  objektbuch  occident  oceans  old-anglo  oly  open-closed  opioids  optimate  optimism  optimization  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bv  org:data  org:econlib  org:edu  org:fin  org:foreign  org:gov  org:health  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organization  organizing  orient  orwellian  other-xtian  outcome-risk  outliers  p:null  parable  parasites-microbiome  parenting  paternal-age  path-dependence  patho-altruism  patience  paulg  pdf  peace-violence  pennsylvania  people  personal-finance  personality  pessimism  phalanges  philosophy  pic  pinker  piracy  planning  play  plots  poast  podcast  poetry  polarization  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  poll  pop-diff  popsci  population  population-genetics  populism  postmortem  postrat  power  pragmatic  prediction  prediction-markets  preference-falsification  preprint  presentation  priors-posteriors  privacy  pro-rata  problem-solving  productivity  profile  propaganda  properties  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  prudence  pseudoE  psych-architecture  psychiatry  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  public-health  publishing  q-n-a  qra  QTL  quality  quantitative-qualitative  quantum  quantum-info  quiz  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  rant  rationality  ratty  realness  reason  rec-math  recent-selection  recommendations  recruiting  reddit  redistribution  reference  reflection  regional-scatter-plots  regression-to-mean  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement  religion  rent-seeking  replication  reputation  research  responsibility  retention  review  rhetoric  rhythm  right-wing  rigor  rindermann-thompson  risk  ritual  roots  rot  running  russia  s-factor  s:*  s:***  safety  sanctity-degradation  sapiens  scale  scaling-up  science  science-anxiety  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  scott-sumner  search  selection  self-control  self-interest  selfish-gene  sentiment  sex  sexuality  shift  short-circuit  sib-study  signal-noise  signaling  signum  singularity  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  slippery-slope  smoothness  social  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  sociality  society  sociology  software  solid-study  spatial  spearhead  speculation  speed  speedometer  spock  sports  spreading  ssc  stagnation  stat-power  statesmen  stats  status  stereotypes  stories  strategy  straussian  stream  street-fighting  stress  structure  study  studying  stylized-facts  subculture  subjective-objective  success  sulla  summary  supply-demand  survey  sv  swimming  symmetry  syntax  systematic-ad-hoc  szabo  tails  taxes  teaching  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  temperance  terrorism  tetlock  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-monster  the-self  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theory-practice  theos  thiel  things  thinking  threat-modeling  time  time-preference  time-series  time-use  tip-of-tongue  toolkit  top-n  track-record  tradeoffs  tradition  transportation  trends  tribalism  troll  trump  trust  truth  tutorial  tv  twin-study  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  uniqueness  universalism-particularism  urban  urban-rural  us-them  usa  values  vampire-squid  variance-components  video  virtu  visualization  visuo  vitality  volo-avolo  vulgar  war  wealth  wealth-of-nations  weird  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  wisdom  within-group  within-without  wonkish  world  world-war  writing  wtf  X-not-about-Y  yc  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎩  🐸  👽  🔬  🤖 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: