nhaliday + legibility   21

Is the economy illegible? | askblog
In the model of the economy as a GDP factory, the most fundamental equation is the production function, Y = f(K,L).

This says that total output (Y) is determined by the total amount of capital (K) and the total amount of labor (L).

Let me stipulate that the economy is legible to the extent that this model can be applied usefully to explain economic developments. I want to point out that the economy, while never as legible as economists might have thought, is rapidly becoming less legible.
econotariat  cracker-econ  economics  macro  big-picture  empirical  legibility  let-me-see  metrics  measurement  econ-metrics  volo-avolo  securities  markets  amazon  business-models  business  tech  sv  corporation  inequality  compensation  polarization  econ-productivity  stagnation  monetary-fiscal  models  complex-systems  map-territory  thinking  nationalism-globalism  time-preference  cost-disease  education  healthcare  composition-decomposition  econometrics  methodology  lens  arrows  labor  capital  trends  intricacy  🎩  moments  winner-take-all  efficiency  input-output 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Why China Cannot Rise Peacefully - YouTube
- unexpected accent/tone lol
- principles: states as unit of action/global anarchy, uncertainty (fog-of-war), states as rational, selfish actors
- consequences: need to become as powerful as possible, regional hegemon, prevent peer competitors (no other regional hegemon in world, eg, China)
- future: China as giant Hong Kong
- future coalition: India, Japan, Russia, Vietnam, Singapore, South Korea, and the USA
- does he actually think Brazil coulda gotten as powerful as the US? lol.
- his summary of American grand strategy (lol):
1. Europe (great powers)
2. NE Asia (great powers)
3. Persian Gulf (oil)
- "Europe will become distant 3rd, Europe is a museum, lotta old people." lol
- "not gonna help us with Asia, got their own problems, bankrupting themselves"
- counterarguments: "not gonna grow, China's a Confucian culture (don't pay attention to those), economic interdependence." doesn't buy the last either.
- best counterarguments: nuclear deterrence, economic interdependence, "age of nationalism"
- mass-murder usually strategic (eg, maintaining power) not ideological

debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kd-1LymXXX0

interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXSkY4QKDlA
- Clinton's a realist
- plenty of economic independence prior to world wars
- nukes makes WW3 unlikely, but do not rule out limited war (eg, over East/South China Sea)
- Confucian pacifism argument is ahistorical
rhetoric  video  presentation  foreign-policy  realpolitik  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  expansionism  war  great-powers  defense  statesmen  world  prediction  contrarianism  org:edu  org:davos  trends  martial  politics  polisci  nihil  nationalism-globalism  tetlock  kumbaya-kult  meta:war  intel  strategy  history  mostly-modern  russia  communism  cold-war  signal-noise  meta:prediction  🎩  civilization  rationality  realness  thinking  systematic-ad-hoc  uncertainty  outcome-risk  nyc  geopolitics  speaking  order-disorder  GT-101  chart  canada  latin-america  early-modern  world-war  japan  power  india  coalitions  zero-positive-sum  winner-take-all  germanic  europe  mediterranean  zeitgeist  the-bones  developing-world  korea  obama  MENA  pre-2013  energy-resources  economics  top-n  big-picture  trade  stylized-facts  debate  water  business  confucian  nuclear  deterrence  iraq-syria  africa  iran  oceans  climate-change  leviathan  death  cynicism-idealism  multi  interview  clinton  peace-violence  legibility  orient  flux-stasis  conquest-empire  c 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Educational Romanticism & Economic Development | pseudoerasmus
https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/852339296358940672
deleeted

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/943238170312929280
https://archive.is/p5hRA

Did Nations that Boosted Education Grow Faster?: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/did_nations_tha.html
On average, no relationship. The trendline points down slightly, but for the time being let's just call it a draw. It's a well-known fact that countries that started the 1960's with high education levels grew faster (example), but this graph is about something different. This graph shows that countries that increased their education levels did not grow faster.

Where has all the education gone?: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1016.2704&rep=rep1&type=pdf

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/948052794681966593
https://archive.is/kjxqp

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/950952412503822337
https://archive.is/3YPic

https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/862961420065001472
http://hanushek.stanford.edu/publications/schooling-educational-achievement-and-latin-american-growth-puzzle

The Case Against Education: What's Taking So Long, Bryan Caplan: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/03/the_case_agains_9.html

The World Might Be Better Off Without College for Everyone: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/01/whats-college-good-for/546590/
Students don't seem to be getting much out of higher education.
- Bryan Caplan

College: Capital or Signal?: http://www.economicmanblog.com/2017/02/25/college-capital-or-signal/
After his review of the literature, Caplan concludes that roughly 80% of the earnings effect from college comes from signalling, with only 20% the result of skill building. Put this together with his earlier observations about the private returns to college education, along with its exploding cost, and Caplan thinks that the social returns are negative. The policy implications of this will come as very bitter medicine for friends of Bernie Sanders.

Doubting the Null Hypothesis: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/doubting-the-null-hypothesis/

Is higher education/college in the US more about skill-building or about signaling?: https://www.quora.com/Is-higher-education-college-in-the-US-more-about-skill-building-or-about-signaling
ballpark: 50% signaling, 30% selection, 20% addition to human capital
more signaling in art history, more human capital in engineering, more selection in philosophy

Econ Duel! Is Education Signaling or Skill Building?: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/03/econ-duel-is-education-signaling-or-skill-building.html
Marginal Revolution University has a brand new feature, Econ Duel! Our first Econ Duel features Tyler and me debating the question, Is education more about signaling or skill building?

Against Tulip Subsidies: https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/06/06/against-tulip-subsidies/

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/01/read-the-case-against-education.html

https://nintil.com/2018/02/05/notes-on-the-case-against-education/

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018-02-19-0000/bryan-caplan-case-against-education-review

https://spottedtoad.wordpress.com/2018/02/12/the-case-against-education/
Most American public school kids are low-income; about half are non-white; most are fairly low skilled academically. For most American kids, the majority of the waking hours they spend not engaged with electronic media are at school; the majority of their in-person relationships are at school; the most important relationships they have with an adult who is not their parent is with their teacher. For their parents, the most important in-person source of community is also their kids’ school. Young people need adult mirrors, models, mentors, and in an earlier era these might have been provided by extended families, but in our own era this all falls upon schools.

Caplan gestures towards work and earlier labor force participation as alternatives to school for many if not all kids. And I empathize: the years that I would point to as making me who I am were ones where I was working, not studying. But they were years spent working in schools, as a teacher or assistant. If schools did not exist, is there an alternative that we genuinely believe would arise to draw young people into the life of their community?

...

It is not an accident that the state that spends the least on education is Utah, where the LDS church can take up some of the slack for schools, while next door Wyoming spends almost the most of any state at $16,000 per student. Education is now the one surviving binding principle of the society as a whole, the one black box everyone will agree to, and so while you can press for less subsidization of education by government, and for privatization of costs, as Caplan does, there’s really nothing people can substitute for it. This is partially about signaling, sure, but it’s also because outside of schools and a few religious enclaves our society is but a darkling plain beset by winds.

This doesn’t mean that we should leave Caplan’s critique on the shelf. Much of education is focused on an insane, zero-sum race for finite rewards. Much of schooling does push kids, parents, schools, and school systems towards a solution ad absurdum, where anything less than 100 percent of kids headed to a doctorate and the big coding job in the sky is a sign of failure of everyone concerned.

But let’s approach this with an eye towards the limits of the possible and the reality of diminishing returns.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/01/27/poison-ivy-halls/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/01/27/poison-ivy-halls/#comment-101293
The real reason the left would support Moander: the usual reason. because he’s an enemy.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/01/bright-college-days-part-i/
I have a problem in thinking about education, since my preferences and personal educational experience are atypical, so I can’t just gut it out. On the other hand, knowing that puts me ahead of a lot of people that seem convinced that all real people, including all Arab cabdrivers, think and feel just as they do.

One important fact, relevant to this review. I don’t like Caplan. I think he doesn’t understand – can’t understand – human nature, and although that sometimes confers a different and interesting perspective, it’s not a royal road to truth. Nor would I want to share a foxhole with him: I don’t trust him. So if I say that I agree with some parts of this book, you should believe me.

...

Caplan doesn’t talk about possible ways of improving knowledge acquisition and retention. Maybe he thinks that’s impossible, and he may be right, at least within a conventional universe of possibilities. That’s a bit outside of his thesis, anyhow. Me it interests.

He dismisses objections from educational psychologists who claim that studying a subject improves you in subtle ways even after you forget all of it. I too find that hard to believe. On the other hand, it looks to me as if poorly-digested fragments of information picked up in college have some effect on public policy later in life: it is no coincidence that most prominent people in public life (at a given moment) share a lot of the same ideas. People are vaguely remembering the same crap from the same sources, or related sources. It’s correlated crap, which has a much stronger effect than random crap.

These widespread new ideas are usually wrong. They come from somewhere – in part, from higher education. Along this line, Caplan thinks that college has only a weak ideological effect on students. I don’t believe he is correct. In part, this is because most people use a shifting standard: what’s liberal or conservative gets redefined over time. At any given time a population is roughly half left and half right – but the content of those labels changes a lot. There’s a shift.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/01/bright-college-days-part-i/#comment-101492
I put it this way, a while ago: “When you think about it, falsehoods, stupid crap, make the best group identifiers, because anyone might agree with you when you’re obviously right. Signing up to clear nonsense is a better test of group loyalty. A true friend is with you when you’re wrong. Ideally, not just wrong, but barking mad, rolling around in your own vomit wrong.”
--
You just explained the Credo quia absurdum doctrine. I always wondered if it was nonsense. It is not.
--
Someone on twitter caught it first – got all the way to “sliding down the razor blade of life”. Which I explained is now called “transitioning”

What Catholics believe: https://theweek.com/articles/781925/what-catholics-believe
We believe all of these things, fantastical as they may sound, and we believe them for what we consider good reasons, well attested by history, consistent with the most exacting standards of logic. We will profess them in this place of wrath and tears until the extraordinary event referenced above, for which men and women have hoped and prayed for nearly 2,000 years, comes to pass.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/05/bright-college-days-part-ii/
According to Caplan, employers are looking for conformity, conscientiousness, and intelligence. They use completion of high school, or completion of college as a sign of conformity and conscientiousness. College certainly looks as if it’s mostly signaling, and it’s hugely expensive signaling, in terms of college costs and foregone earnings.

But inserting conformity into the merit function is tricky: things become important signals… because they’re important signals. Otherwise useful actions are contraindicated because they’re “not done”. For example, test scores convey useful information. They could help show that an applicant is smart even though he attended a mediocre school – the same role they play in college admissions. But employers seldom request test scores, and although applicants may provide them, few do. Caplan says ” The word on the street… [more]
econotariat  pseudoE  broad-econ  economics  econometrics  growth-econ  education  human-capital  labor  correlation  null-result  world  developing-world  commentary  spearhead  garett-jones  twitter  social  pic  discussion  econ-metrics  rindermann-thompson  causation  endo-exo  biodet  data  chart  knowledge  article  wealth-of-nations  latin-america  study  path-dependence  divergence  🎩  curvature  microfoundations  multi  convexity-curvature  nonlinearity  hanushek  volo-avolo  endogenous-exogenous  backup  pdf  people  policy  monetary-fiscal  wonkish  cracker-econ  news  org:mag  local-global  higher-ed  impetus  signaling  rhetoric  contrarianism  domestication  propaganda  ratty  hanson  books  review  recommendations  distribution  externalities  cost-benefit  summary  natural-experiment  critique  rent-seeking  mobility  supply-demand  intervention  shift  social-choice  government  incentives  interests  q-n-a  street-fighting  objektbuch  X-not-about-Y  marginal-rev  c:***  qra  info-econ  info-dynamics  org:econlib  yvain  ssc  politics  medicine  stories 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Peter Norvig, the meaning of polynomials, debugging as psychotherapy | Quomodocumque
He briefly showed a demo where, given values of a polynomial, a machine can put together a few lines of code that successfully computes the polynomial. But the code looks weird to a human eye. To compute some quadratic, it nests for-loops and adds things up in a funny way that ends up giving the right output. So has it really ”learned” the polynomial? I think in computer science, you typically feel you’ve learned a function if you can accurately predict its value on a given input. For an algebraist like me, a function determines but isn’t determined by the values it takes; to me, there’s something about that quadratic polynomial the machine has failed to grasp. I don’t think there’s a right or wrong answer here, just a cultural difference to be aware of. Relevant: Norvig’s description of “the two cultures” at the end of this long post on natural language processing (which is interesting all the way through!)
mathtariat  org:bleg  nibble  tech  ai  talks  summary  philosophy  lens  comparison  math  cs  tcs  polynomials  nlp  debugging  psychology  cog-psych  complex-systems  deep-learning  analogy  legibility  interpretability 
march 2017 by nhaliday
The Art of Not Being Governed - Wikipedia
For two thousand years the disparate groups that now reside in Zomia (a mountainous region the size of Europe that consists of portions of seven Asian countries) have fled the projects of the nation state societies that surround them—slavery, conscription, taxes, corvée, epidemics, and warfare.[1][2] This book, essentially an “anarchist history,” is the first-ever examination of the huge literature on nation-building whose author evaluates why people would deliberately and reactively remain stateless.

Among the strategies employed by the people of Zomia to remain stateless are physical dispersion in rugged terrain; agricultural practices that enhance mobility; pliable ethnic identities; devotion to prophetic, millenarian leaders; and maintenance of a largely oral culture that allows them to reinvent their histories and genealogies as they move between and around states.

Scott admits to making "bold claims" in his book[3] but credits many other scholars, including the French anthropologist Pierre Clastres and the American historian Owen Lattimore, as influences.[3]
books  anthropology  history  contrarianism  asia  developing-world  world  farmers-and-foragers  leviathan  coordination  wiki  pseudoE  ethnography  emergent  sociology  civilization  order-disorder  legibility  domestication  decentralized  allodium  madisonian  broad-econ  apollonian-dionysian 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Personhood: A Game for Two or More Players | Melting Asphalt
The point is, when we act as persons, wearing our person masks out in public, we're acting within the framework of an implicit social contract — one that's designed to help us get along smoothly with our fellow persons.

Of course, this type of "contract" isn't a binary, all-or-nothing proposition. Instead, like all social phenomena, it admits of degrees. The way it works is that the more you behave like a person, the more you'll be treated like one. So it isn't a question of "whether" someone is a person, but rather "how much personhood" she has, based on how well she carries herself.
simler  essay  thinking  anthropology  society  contracts  walls  postrat  legibility  social-norms 
october 2016 by nhaliday
Up the Indus by Brain Slug
A Science-Fiction interpretation of some curious features of the Indus Valley (Harappan) Civilisation
fiction  history  sapiens  mystic  len:short  🐸  antiquity  india  civilization  MENA  archaeology  👽  asia  government  institutions  scale  language  homo-hetero  time  long-short-run  gavisti  religion  war  martial  nihil  order-disorder  legibility  scifi-fantasy  speculation 
august 2016 by nhaliday

bundles : abstractpatternsvague

related tags

2016-election  :/  ability-competence  absolute-relative  academia  acemoglu  acmtariat  advertising  africa  age-of-discovery  agri-mindset  agriculture  ai  ai-control  akrasia  alignment  allodium  alt-inst  amazon  analogy  anglo  anglosphere  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  api  apollonian-dionysian  arbitrage  archaeology  architecture  aristos  arms  arrows  art  article  asia  attaq  audio  authoritarianism  autism  automation  aversion  axelrod  axioms  backup  behavioral-gen  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  biotech  blockchain  blowhards  books  bostrom  branches  britain  broad-econ  business  business-models  c:***  california  canada  cancer  capital  capitalism  carcinisation  causation  charity  chart  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  class  climate-change  clinton  coalitions  cocktail  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  coming-apart  commentary  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complement-substitute  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  computer-vision  concept  conceptual-vocab  confluence  confucian  conquest-empire  contracts  contrarianism  convexity-curvature  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  counterfactual  cracker-econ  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  critique  crooked  crypto  cryptocurrency  cs  cultural-dynamics  culture  culture-war  current-events  curvature  cycles  cynicism-idealism  darwinian  data  dataset  death  debate  debt  debugging  decentralized  decision-making  deep-learning  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  demographics  dennett  descriptive  deterrence  developing-world  developmental  differential-privacy  discipline  discussion  distribution  divergence  diversity  domestication  dominant-minority  douthatish  drama  duty  early-modern  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  eden-heaven  education  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  elections  elite  embodied  emergent  empirical  ems  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  entropy-like  environment  equilibrium  error  essay  estimate  ethical-algorithms  ethics  ethnography  europe  evidence-based  evolution  exit-voice  expansionism  expert-experience  expression-survival  externalities  farmers-and-foragers  fermi  fertility  fiction  finance  fitness  flexibility  flux-stasis  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  formal-values  frisson  futurism  gallic  games  garett-jones  gavisti  gender  gender-diff  genetics  genomics  geography  geopolitics  germanic  gibbon  gnon  gnxp  google  government  grad-school  graphs  gray-econ  great-powers  group-selection  growth-econ  GT-101  GWAS  gwern  hanson  hanushek  hard-tech  harvard  health  healthcare  heterodox  higher-ed  history  hive-mind  hmm  homo-hetero  horror  housing  huge-data-the-biggest  human-capital  humanity  humility  identity  identity-politics  ideology  idk  iidness  illusion  impact  impetus  incentives  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  inequality  info-dynamics  info-econ  info-foraging  innovation  input-output  insight  institutions  integrity  intel  intelligence  interests  internet  interpretability  intervention  interview  intricacy  iq  iran  iraq-syria  islam  japan  kinship  knowledge  korea  krugman  kumbaya-kult  labor  land  language  latin-america  law  learning  left-wing  legibility  len:long  len:short  lens  let-me-see  leviathan  life-history  links  list  literature  local-global  lol  long-short-run  longform  lovecraft  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  malaise  malthus  management  managerial-state  map-territory  marginal  marginal-rev  markets  martial  matching  math  mathtariat  meaningness  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  MENA  mena4  meta:medicine  meta:prediction  meta:war  metameta  methodology  metrics  microfoundations  migrant-crisis  migration  military  minimalism  mobility  models  moloch  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  multi  murray  mystic  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  neurons  new-religion  news  nibble  nihil  nlp  nonlinearity  nordic  north-weingast-like  nuclear  null-result  number  nyc  obama  objektbuch  occident  oceans  old-anglo  opioids  optimate  optimism  optimization  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:bleg  org:davos  org:econlib  org:edu  org:mag  org:med  org:sci  organizing  orient  orwellian  outcome-risk  paleocon  parenting  path-dependence  patho-altruism  pdf  peace-violence  people  pessimism  phalanges  philosophy  pic  planning  poast  podcast  polanyi-marx  polarization  policy  polisci  politics  polynomials  popsci  population  postrat  power  pragmatic  pre-2013  prediction  preference-falsification  preprint  presentation  primitivism  privacy  problem-solving  productivity  propaganda  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  protocol  pseudoE  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  putnam-like  q-n-a  qra  quantitative-qualitative  quotes  race  randy-ayndy  ranking  rant  rationality  ratty  reading  realness  realpolitik  recommendations  recruiting  reddit  regulation  religion  rent-seeking  retention  review  revolution  rhetoric  right-wing  rindermann-thompson  risk  roots  rot  russia  s:***  sapiens  scale  schelling  science  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  securities  security  shift  sib-study  signal-noise  signaling  simler  singularity  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  social  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-science  social-structure  society  sociology  spatial  speaking  spearhead  speculation  spock  sports  spreading  ssc  stagnation  stat-power  state-of-art  statesmen  stats  stories  strategy  street-fighting  study  studying  stylized-facts  subculture  sulla  summary  supply-demand  sv  systematic-ad-hoc  tainter  talks  taxes  tcs  tech  technology  telos-atelos  terrorism  tetlock  the-bones  the-founding  the-great-west-whale  the-trenches  the-watchers  the-west  theos  things  thinking  threat-modeling  thucydides  time  time-preference  time-series  tocqueville  toolkit  tools  top-n  toxoplasmosis  track-record  trade  tradition  transportation  trees  trends  tribalism  troll  truth  turchin  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  urban-rural  us-them  usa  utopia-dystopia  vague  vampire-squid  vgr  video  virginia-DC  virtu  visuo  volo-avolo  walls  war  water  wealth-of-nations  weird-sun  west-hunter  westminster  whole-partial-many  wiki  winner-take-all  wisdom  within-group  within-without  wonkish  working-stiff  world  world-war  X-not-about-Y  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🎩  🐸  👽  🤖 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: