nhaliday + games   110

Information Processing: US Needs a National AI Strategy: A Sputnik Moment?
FT podcasts on US-China competition and AI: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/05/ft-podcasts-on-us-china-competition-and.html

A new recommended career path for effective altruists: China specialist: https://80000hours.org/articles/china-careers/
Our rough guess is that it would be useful for there to be at least ten people in the community with good knowledge in this area within the next few years.

By “good knowledge” we mean they’ve spent at least 3 years studying these topics and/or living in China.

We chose ten because that would be enough for several people to cover each of the major areas listed (e.g. 4 within AI, 2 within biorisk, 2 within foreign relations, 1 in another area).

AI Policy and Governance Internship: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ai-policy-governance-internship/

https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/deciphering-chinas-ai-dream/
https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Deciphering_Chinas_AI-Dream.pdf
Deciphering China’s AI Dream
The context, components, capabilities, and consequences of
China’s strategy to lead the world in AI

Europe’s AI delusion: https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-europes-ai-delusion/
Brussels is failing to grasp threats and opportunities of artificial intelligence.
By BRUNO MAÇÃES

When the computer program AlphaGo beat the Chinese professional Go player Ke Jie in a three-part match, it didn’t take long for Beijing to realize the implications.

If algorithms can already surpass the abilities of a master Go player, it can’t be long before they will be similarly supreme in the activity to which the classic board game has always been compared: war.

As I’ve written before, the great conflict of our time is about who can control the next wave of technological development: the widespread application of artificial intelligence in the economic and military spheres.

...

If China’s ambitions sound plausible, that’s because the country’s achievements in deep learning are so impressive already. After Microsoft announced that its speech recognition software surpassed human-level language recognition in October 2016, Andrew Ng, then head of research at Baidu, tweeted: “We had surpassed human-level Chinese recognition in 2015; happy to see Microsoft also get there for English less than a year later.”

...

One obvious advantage China enjoys is access to almost unlimited pools of data. The machine-learning technologies boosting the current wave of AI expansion are as good as the amount of data they can use. That could be the number of people driving cars, photos labeled on the internet or voice samples for translation apps. With 700 or 800 million Chinese internet users and fewer data protection rules, China is as rich in data as the Gulf States are in oil.

How can Europe and the United States compete? They will have to be commensurately better in developing algorithms and computer power. Sadly, Europe is falling behind in these areas as well.

...

Chinese commentators have embraced the idea of a coming singularity: the moment when AI surpasses human ability. At that point a number of interesting things happen. First, future AI development will be conducted by AI itself, creating exponential feedback loops. Second, humans will become useless for waging war. At that point, the human mind will be unable to keep pace with robotized warfare. With advanced image recognition, data analytics, prediction systems, military brain science and unmanned systems, devastating wars might be waged and won in a matter of minutes.

...

The argument in the new strategy is fully defensive. It first considers how AI raises new threats and then goes on to discuss the opportunities. The EU and Chinese strategies follow opposite logics. Already on its second page, the text frets about the legal and ethical problems raised by AI and discusses the “legitimate concerns” the technology generates.

The EU’s strategy is organized around three concerns: the need to boost Europe’s AI capacity, ethical issues and social challenges. Unfortunately, even the first dimension quickly turns out to be about “European values” and the need to place “the human” at the center of AI — forgetting that the first word in AI is not “human” but “artificial.”

https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/983057591298351104
https://archive.is/m3Njh
US military: "LOL, China thinks it's going to be a major player in AI, but we've got all the top AI researchers. You guys will help us develop weapons, right?"

US AI researchers: "No."

US military: "But... maybe just a computer vision app."

US AI researchers: "NO."

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/4/17196818/ai-boycot-killer-robots-kaist-university-hanwha
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/technology/google-letter-ceo-pentagon-project.html
https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/981685030417326080
https://archive.is/3wbHm
AI-risk was a mistake.
hsu  scitariat  commentary  video  presentation  comparison  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  frontier  technology  science  ai  speedometer  innovation  google  barons  deepgoog  stories  white-paper  strategy  migration  iran  human-capital  corporation  creative  alien-character  military  human-ml  nationalism-globalism  security  investing  government  games  deterrence  defense  nuclear  arms  competition  risk  ai-control  musk  optimism  multi  news  org:mag  europe  EU  80000-hours  effective-altruism  proposal  article  realness  offense-defense  war  biotech  altruism  language  foreign-lang  philosophy  the-great-west-whale  enhancement  foreign-policy  geopolitics  anglo  jobs  career  planning  hmm  travel  charity  tech  intel  media  teaching  tutoring  russia  india  miri-cfar  pdf  automation  class  labor  polisci  society  trust  n-factor  corruption  leviathan  ethics  authoritarianism  individualism-collectivism  revolution  economics  inequality  civic  law  regulation  data  scale  pro-rata  capital  zero-positive-sum  cooperate-defect  distribution  time-series  tre 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Deliberate Practice and Performance in Music, Games, Sports, Education, and Professions: A Meta-Analysis
We found that deliberate practice explained 26% of the variance in performance for games, 21% for music, 18% for sports, 4% for education, and less than 1% for professions. We conclude that deliberate practice is important, but not as important as has been argued.
pdf  study  psychology  cog-psych  social-psych  teaching  tutoring  learning  studying  stylized-facts  metabuch  career  long-term  music  games  sports  education  labor  data  list  expert-experience  ability-competence  roots  variance-components  top-n  meta-analysis  practice  quixotic 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Global determinants of navigation ability | bioRxiv
Using a mobile-based virtual reality navigation task, we measured spatial navigation ability in more than 2.5 million people globally. Using a clustering approach, we find that navigation ability is not smoothly distributed globally but clustered into five distinct yet geographically related groups of countries. Furthermore, the economic wealth of a nation (Gross Domestic Product per capita) was predictive of the average navigation ability of its inhabitants and gender inequality (Gender Gap Index) was predictive of the size of performance difference between males and females.

- Figure 1 has the meat
- gender gap larger in richer/better-performing countries
- Anglo and Nordic countries do best (Finnish supremacy wins the day again)
- surprised China doesn't do better, probably a matter of development
- Singapore is close behind the Anglo-Nords tho
- speculation that practice of orienteering (originally Swedish) may be related to Nords doing well
- somewhat weird pattern wrt age
study  bio  preprint  psychology  cog-psych  iq  psychometrics  spatial  navigation  pop-diff  gender  gender-diff  egalitarianism-hierarchy  correlation  wealth  wealth-of-nations  econ-metrics  data  visualization  maps  world  developing-world  marginal  europe  the-great-west-whale  nordic  britain  anglo  usa  anglosphere  china  asia  sinosphere  polis  demographics  age-generation  aging  EU  group-level  regional-scatter-plots  games  simulation 
september 2017 by nhaliday
Superintelligence Risk Project Update II
https://www.jefftk.com/p/superintelligence-risk-project-update

https://www.jefftk.com/p/conversation-with-michael-littman
For example, I asked him what he thought of the idea that to we could get AGI with current techniques, primarily deep neural nets and reinforcement learning, without learning anything new about how intelligence works or how to implement it ("Prosaic AGI" [1]). He didn't think this was possible, and believes there are deep conceptual issues we still need to get a handle on. He's also less impressed with deep learning than he was before he started working in it: in his experience it's a much more brittle technology than he had been expecting. Specifically, when trying to replicate results, he's often found that they depend on a bunch of parameters being in just the right range, and without that the systems don't perform nearly as well.

The bottom line, to him, was that since we are still many breakthroughs away from getting to AGI, we can't productively work on reducing superintelligence risk now.

He told me that he worries that the AI risk community is not solving real problems: they're making deductions and inferences that are self-consistent but not being tested or verified in the world. Since we can't tell if that's progress, it probably isn't. I asked if he was referring to MIRI's work here, and he said their work was an example of the kind of approach he's skeptical about, though he wasn't trying to single them out. [2]

https://www.jefftk.com/p/conversation-with-an-ai-researcher
Earlier this week I had a conversation with an AI researcher [1] at one of the main industry labs as part of my project of assessing superintelligence risk. Here's what I got from them:

They see progress in ML as almost entirely constrained by hardware and data, to the point that if today's hardware and data had existed in the mid 1950s researchers would have gotten to approximately our current state within ten to twenty years. They gave the example of backprop: we saw how to train multi-layer neural nets decades before we had the computing power to actually train these nets to do useful things.

Similarly, people talk about AlphaGo as a big jump, where Go went from being "ten years away" to "done" within a couple years, but they said it wasn't like that. If Go work had stayed in academia, with academia-level budgets and resources, it probably would have taken nearly that long. What changed was a company seeing promising results, realizing what could be done, and putting way more engineers and hardware on the project than anyone had previously done. AlphaGo couldn't have happened earlier because the hardware wasn't there yet, and was only able to be brought forward by massive application of resources.

https://www.jefftk.com/p/superintelligence-risk-project-conclusion
Summary: I'm not convinced that AI risk should be highly prioritized, but I'm also not convinced that it shouldn't. Highly qualified researchers in a position to have a good sense the field have massively different views on core questions like how capable ML systems are now, how capable they will be soon, and how we can influence their development. I do think these questions are possible to get a better handle on, but I think this would require much deeper ML knowledge than I have.
ratty  core-rats  ai  risk  ai-control  prediction  expert  machine-learning  deep-learning  speedometer  links  research  research-program  frontier  multi  interview  deepgoog  games  hardware  performance  roots  impetus  chart  big-picture  state-of-art  reinforcement  futurism  🤖  🖥  expert-experience  singularity  miri-cfar  empirical  evidence-based  speculation  volo-avolo  clever-rats  acmtariat  robust  ideas  crux  atoms  detail-architecture  software  gradient-descent 
july 2017 by nhaliday
Young Men Are Playing Video Games Instead of Getting Jobs. That's OK. (For Now.) - Reason.com
https://www.dropbox.com/s/al533ecu82w29y1/BusinessCycleFallout.pdf
https://twitter.com/MarkKoyama/status/881893997706399744
This is like a reversal of the industrious revolution studied in my JEBO paper: new consumption technologies are money cheap but time pricey
http://www.nber.org/papers/w23552
https://www.1843magazine.com/features/escape-to-another-world
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13723996
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/07/what-are-young-men-doing.html
https://www.firstthings.com/blogs/firstthoughts/2016/08/americas-lost-boys

http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/work-becomes-optional/
participation has changed along an understudied margin of labor supply. I find that “in-and-outs”—men who temporarily leave the labor force—represent a growing fraction of prime age men across multiple data sources and are responsible for roughly one third of the decline in the participation rate since 1977. In-and-outs take short, infrequent breaks out of the labor force in between jobs, but they are otherwise continuously attached to the labor force. Leading explanations for the growing share of permanent labor force dropouts, such as disability, do not apply to in-and-outs. Instead, reduced-form evidence and a structural model of household labor supply both indicate that the rise of in-and-outs reflects a shift in labor supply, largely due to the increasing earnings of men’s partners and the growth of men living with their parents.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen. My thoughts:

1. When we think of labor force participation declining, we think of, say, John Smith, deciding to never work again. What this paper is saying is that the statistics reflect something different. One month Smith takes a break, then next month he gets a job and Tom Jones takes a break.

2. I think we have always had a large number of workers who are not fully employed year round. That is, there have always been a lot of workers who take breaks between jobs. This is common in construction work, for example.

3. I don’t know if this matters for the phenomenon at hand, but we used to have inventory recessions. In those cases, workers would be out of a job for a while, but they would still be in the labor force, because they were waiting to be recalled by the firm that had laid them off.

4. It seems to me that this is an important paper. Re-read the last sentence in the quoted excerpt.

Job outlook growing worse for young American men: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/opinion/contributors/2018/01/02/job-outlook-growing-worse-young-american-men-opinion/996922001/
As one might imagine, the absence of a job, quality education, or spouse has not bred otherwise productive citizens. Multiple studies have found that young men have replaced what would otherwise be working hours with leisure time at a near 1-1 ratio. Erik Hurst, an economist at the University of Chicago, found that young men spent a startling 75 percent of this leisure time playing video games, with many spending more than 30 hours a week gaming and over 5 million Americans spending more than 45 hours per week.

Higher suicide rates, violent crime, and drug addiction among young men have followed. Suicide rates in the United States are at a 30-year high, with men more than three and a half times more likely to take their own lives than women. Around the United States, violent crimes, homicide in particular, has increased in two-thirds of American cities, with overwhelming young male perpetrators driving the increase. A 2015 Brookings Institute study estimated that nearly half of working-age American men who are out of the labor force are using painkillers, daily.

These problems have been “invisible” for too long.

As video games get better, young men work less and play more: http://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2017/article/video-games-get-better-young-men-work-less-and-play-more

Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Labor Force?: https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/econrev/econrevarchive/2018/1q18tuzemen.pdf

Prime-Age Men May Never Return to U.S. Workforce, Fed Paper Says: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/prime-age-men-may-never-return-to-u-s-workforce-fed-paper-says
news  org:mag  rhetoric  trends  malaise  coming-apart  gender  labor  automation  inequality  games  populism  randy-ayndy  human-capital  education  econotariat  marginal-rev  male-variability  rot  dignity  multi  pdf  garett-jones  cycles  gedanken  twitter  social  commentary  economics  broad-econ  org:anglo  org:biz  attention  wonkish  stagnation  current-events  journos-pundits  hn  class  org:lite  society  :/  self-control  lol  macro  data  usa  letters  org:ngo  life-history  bootstraps  oscillation  dropbox  chart  cracker-econ  long-short-run  preprint  pseudoE  org:local  the-monster  org:edu  study  summary  white-paper  org:gov  article  essay  roots  explanans  polarization  winner-take-all  org:theos 
june 2017 by nhaliday
The Bridge: 数字化 – 网络化 – 智能化: China’s Quest for an AI Revolution in Warfare
The PLA’s organizational tendencies could render it more inclined to take full advantage of the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence, without constraints due to concerns about keeping humans ‘in the loop.’ In its command culture, the PLA has tended to consolidate and centralize authorities at higher levels, remaining reluctant to delegate decision-making downward. The introduction of information technology has exacerbated the tendency of PLA commanders to micromanage subordinates through a practice known as “skip-echelon command” (越级指挥) that enables the circumvention of command bureaucracy to influence units and weapons systems at even a tactical level.[xxviii] This practice can be symptomatic of a culture of distrust and bureaucratic immaturity. The PLA has confronted and started to progress in mitigating its underlying human resource challenges, recruiting increasingly educated officers and enlisted personnel, while seeking to modernize and enhance political and ideological work aimed to ensure loyalty to the Chinese Communist Party. However, the employment of artificial intelligence could appeal to the PLA as a way to circumvent and work around those persistent issues. In the long term, the intersection of the PLA’s focus on ‘scientific’ approaches to warfare with the preference to consolidate and centralize decision-making could cause the PLA’s leadership to rely more upon artificial intelligence, rather than human judgment.
news  org:mag  org:foreign  trends  china  asia  sinosphere  war  meta:war  military  defense  strategy  current-events  ai  automation  technology  foreign-policy  realpolitik  expansionism  innovation  individualism-collectivism  values  prediction  deepgoog  games  n-factor  human-ml  alien-character  risk  ai-control 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Anonymous Mugwump: The Empirics of Free Speech and Realistic Idealism: Part II
1. News Media: Murdoch and the Purple Land
2. The Effects of Money and Lobbying in Politics
3. Video Games: Crash Bandicoot Shouting Fire in a Crowded Theatre
4. Porn: Having an Orgasm in a Crowded Theatre
5. Sexist Speech: Crash Bandicoot Making Rape Jokes in a Crowded Theatre
6. Race Related Speech: Hollywood, Skokie and Umugandas in Rwanda
7. Incitement, Obedience and Speech Act Theory: Eichmann to Jihadi Twitter
8. Conclusion: Epistemic Humility

...

Here is what I am seeking to show in the next few paragraphs:
1. Corporate ownership of the media does not lead to corporate-friendly media output arising from a conflict of interest.
2. The main driver of media output is consumer demand (i.e., people read what they already agree with) as the above extract indicates.
3. This could create a new negative effect of a free media: people living in a bubble where their views are reinforced by an uninformative partisan press.
4. I do not believe this bubble exists: reputational effects and consumer demand for truth rather than reinforcement of existing beliefs means that the partisan media does not, uniformly or consistently, distort the truth.

...

For clarity: my primary argument is that things like campaign contributions and lobbying don’t matter. But, in deference to how mixed the literature is, I would say that our aversion to interest groups is misguided. Whether it’s Save the Children campaigning for minimum levels of aid or Citigroup lobbying for certain legislation, we needn’t jump to accusations of corruption or cronyism. Democratic politics is about legislators listening, being persuaded in a marketplace of ideas – and it really doesn’t matter if the person putting forward that idea is Exxon Mobil or a constituent. The burden for suggesting that there is impropriety is necessarily high and I simply haven’t seen any convincing evidence that there is necessarily or mostly a link between money, lobbying, politics and impropriety.

...

[some stuff on video games, porn, sexism, and racial hate speech]

[this is pretty crazy:]
In essence, ‘learning from the peasant ideology… and the everyday propaganda during umuganda had also motivated people to see their fellow ba-Tutsi as enemies’ in the run up the genocide. When the genocide finally hit, umugandas were used more directly in the genocide:

During the genocide, umuganda did not involve planting trees but ‘clearing out the weeds’ – a phrase used by the genocidaires to mean the killing of Tutsis. Chopping up men was referred to as ‘bush clearing’ and slaughtering women and children as ‘pulling out the roots of the bad weeds’... The slogan, ‘clearing bushes and removing bad weeds’, were familiar terms used in the course of ordinary agricultural labour undertaken in umuganda.

...

One more Saturday with rainfall above 10mm corresponds to a 0.41 percentage point reduction in the civilian participation rate. Those who wish to stop curtail certain forms of hate speech might very easily rely on studies like this. But there is an even better study which they can rely on in doing so: RTLM was the radio station in Rwanda and much like the umugandas: referring to Tutsis as cockroaches and dirty.

Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19201
Towns with one standard deviation higher association density saw at least 15% faster Nazi Party entry. All types of societies – from veteran associations to animal breeders, chess clubs and choirs – positively predict NS Party entry.

White, middle-class social capital helps to incarcerate African-Americans in racially diverse states.: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2017/09/22/white-middle-class-social-capital-helps-to-incarcerate-african-americans-in-racially-diverse-states/
Social capital is mostly seen as a ‘good’: bringing communities together and, in the case of criminal justice, encouraging social empathy which can lead to less harsh sentencing. But these analyses ignore racial divisions in social capital. In new research, Daniel Hawes finds that while social capital can reduce the Black-White disparity in incarceration rates in states with few African Americans, in states with greater numbers of African Americans, perceptions of racial threat can activate social capital in white communities, leading to greater targeting, profiling and arrests for minorities.
albion  analysis  essay  meta-analysis  study  summary  list  empirical  civil-liberty  media  institutions  roots  business  info-dynamics  endo-exo  religion  natural-experiment  polisci  politics  wonkish  propaganda  nl-and-so-can-you  epistemic  supply-demand  🎩  spock  nitty-gritty  history  early-modern  usa  britain  MENA  unaffiliated  scale  incentives  market-power  competition  piketty  inequality  government  elections  money  null-result  stylized-facts  polarization  distribution  data  visualization  poll  gilens-page  coalitions  foreign-policy  realpolitik  israel  neocons  iran  nuclear  managerial-state  regularizer  policy  games  crime  sex  gender  discrimination  biodet  variance-components  behavioral-gen  race  diversity  africa  stories  death  social-capital  europe  woah  unintended-consequences  h2o  community  internet  terrorism  correlation  tv  tradeoffs  optimism  intervention  faq  putnam-like  madisonian  chart  article  exit-voice  microfoundations  germanic  mostly-modern  world-war  multi  economics  fluid  cliometrics  news  org:ngo 
april 2017 by nhaliday
The Legend of the Chessboard
my favorite (only?) quantitative parable
parable  history  magnitude  math  games 
february 2017 by nhaliday
ExtraTricky - A Rant About AlphaGo Discussions
The most important idea to be able to analyze endgames is the idea of adding two games together. The sum of two games is another game where on your turn you pick one of the two games to play in. So you could imagine a game of "chess plus checkers" where each turn is either a turn on the chess board or a turn on the checkers board. Say your opponent makes a move on the chess board. Now you have a choice: do you want to respond to that move also on the chess board, or is it better to take a turn on the checkers board and accept the potential loss of allowing two consecutive chess moves?

If you were to actually add a game of chess and a game of checkers, you'd have to also determine a way to say who wins. I'm going to conveniently avoid talking about that for general games, because for Go positions the answer is simple: add up the points from each game. So you could imagine a game of "Go plus Go" where you're playing simultaneously on two boards, and on your turn you pick one of the boards to play on. At the end of the game, instead of counting territory from just one board, you count it from both.

As it turns out, when a Go game reaches the final stages, the board is typically partitioned into small areas that don't interact with each other. In these cases, even though these sections exist on the same board, you can think of them being entirely separate games being added together. Once we have that, there's still the question: how do you determine which section to play in?
extratricky  oly  games  deepgoog  thinking  things  analysis  nibble  org:bleg 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Links 2/17: Site Your Sources | Slate Star Codex
The United States not only does poorly on education benchmark PISA, but each decile of wealth also does poorly compared to equivalent deciles in other countries. I find this surprising. Does this torpedo the theory that each US ethnic group does as well as its foreign counterparts, and US underperformance is a Simpson’s Paradox on ethnic distribution?

Twitter: @EveryoneIsDril.

New Study Finds Performance-Enhancing Drugs For Chess. Okay, fine, just modafinil, which we already knew about, but the exact pattern is interesting. Modafinil makes people take longer to make their moves, but the moves are ultimately better. That suggests that its advantage is not increasing IQ per se, but in giving people the increased attention span/concentration to work harder on finding good moves. I think this elegantly ties together a lot of stuff into a good explanation of modafinil’s cognitive-enhancing properties.

New Zealand Wants To Know How Peter Thiel Became A Secret Citizen. Give up, New Zealand; Peter Thiel is a citizen of any country he wants to be a citizen of. Also: Peter Thiel Denies California Governor Run Despite Mysterious Group’s Backing.

I was going to link to the paper Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth, but the part that actually interested me is small enough that I’m just going to include it here as a jpg (h/t Julia Galef).

Nature: Prevalence And Architecture Of De Novo Mutations In Developmental Disorders. There’s been a lot of debate over paternal age effects, and this paper helps clarify that by actually counting people’s de novo mutations and finding that children of older fathers (and to a lesser degree older mothers) have more of them. I am not sure to what degree this answers the objection that fathers with worse genes will tend to get married later; my impression is that it’s circumstantial evidence against (de novo mutations are more specific to paternal age than just bad genes) but not complete disproof.

Psssst, kid, wanna buy a parasitic worm? Key quote: “Those who experience the ‘hookworm bounce’ tend to describe it as ‘feeling as if they are teenagers again'” (h/t pistachi0n).

New paper in Crime And Delinquency: “We find no evidence that the number of fatal police shootings either increased or decreased post-Ferguson. Claims to the contrary are based on weak analyses of short-term trends.” This is especially surprising in light of claims that increased inner-city crime is caused by police withdrawing in order to prevent further fatal shootings; if that’s the police’s plan, it doesn’t seem to be working very well.

Intranasal ghrelin vaccine prevents obesity in mice.

Gene drive testing thwarted when organisms quickly develop resistance. There goes that idea.

New poll: Majority of Europeans support banning Muslim immigration. It’s an Internet-based poll, which is always cause for suspicion, but they seem to be a reputable organization and not the sort of group whose results are 100% due to trolling by 4chan, plus it’s consistent with some other results. Still pretty shocking and an existential-terror-level reminder of partisan bubbles. Also: Rasmussen finds most Americans support Trump’s refugee ban order.

Closely related: M.G. Miles makes the case for banning Muslim immigration. Maybe the first person I have seen make this case in a principled way; everyone else just seems to be screaming about stuff and demanding their readers reinterpret it into argument form. Also, he uses the word “terrorism” zero times, which seems like the correct number of times for a case of this sort. This is what people should be debating and responding to. Rebuttals by Americans would probably want to start with the differences between Muslim immigrants to Europe and Muslim immigrants to the US – Miles discusses the European case, but by my understanding these are very different populations with very different outcomes).

Second Enumerations podcast: Grognor reading interesting essays.

SSRN: Extreme Protest Tactics Reduce Popular Support For Social Movements: “We find across three experiments that extreme protest tactics decreased popular support for a given cause because they reduced feelings of identification with the movement. Though this effect obtained in tests of popular responses to extreme tactics used by animal rights, Black Lives Matter, and anti-Trump protests (Studies 1-3), we found that self-identified political activists were willing to use extreme tactics because they believed them to be effective for recruiting popular support.” Cf. The Toxoplasma Of Rage. (h/t Dain)

The Cagots were an underclass of people in medieval France whom everyone hated, with various purity laws around how decent people weren’t allowed to associate with/marry/touch/go near them. In the 1500s, the Pope personally intervened to tell the French to stop persecuting them, but the French ignored him and persecuted them more than ever. As far as anyone can tell, they looked, spoke, and acted just like everyone else, and exactly how they became so despised is one of the minor mysteries of medieval history.
ratty  yvain  ssc  links  commentary  multi  education  psychometrics  class  usa  regularizer  twitter  memes(ew)  nootropics  study  summary  games  thiel  government  anglo  california  pic  physics  interdisciplinary  complex-systems  models  map-territory  epistemic  science  social-science  org:nat  paternal-age  genetics  genetic-load  genomics  parasites-microbiome  data  crime  trends  criminal-justice  politics  culture-war  medicine  obesity  model-organism  geoengineering  CRISPR  unintended-consequences  europe  poll  migrant-crisis  migration  policy  islam  rhetoric  attaq  audio  podcast  postrat  subculture  medieval  gallic  tribalism  thinking  tactics  anthropology  meta:rhetoric  persuasion 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Performance Trends in AI | Otium
Deep learning has revolutionized the world of artificial intelligence. But how much does it improve performance? How have computers gotten better at different tasks over time, since the rise of deep learning?

In games, what the data seems to show is that exponential growth in data and computation power yields exponential improvements in raw performance. In other words, you get out what you put in. Deep learning matters, but only because it provides a way to turn Moore’s Law into corresponding performance improvements, for a wide class of problems. It’s not even clear it’s a discontinuous advance in performance over non-deep-learning systems.

In image recognition, deep learning clearly is a discontinuous advance over other algorithms. But the returns to scale and the improvements over time seem to be flattening out as we approach or surpass human accuracy.

In speech recognition, deep learning is again a discontinuous advance. We are still far away from human accuracy, and in this regime, accuracy seems to be improving linearly over time.

In machine translation, neural nets seem to have made progress over conventional techniques, but it’s not yet clear if that’s a real phenomenon, or what the trends are.

In natural language processing, trends are positive, but deep learning doesn’t generally seem to do better than trendline.

...

The learned agent performs much better than the hard-coded agent, but moves more jerkily and “randomly” and doesn’t know the law of reflection. Similarly, the reports of AlphaGo producing “unusual” Go moves are consistent with an agent that can do pattern-recognition over a broader space than humans can, but which doesn’t find the “laws” or “regularities” that humans do.

Perhaps, contrary to the stereotype that contrasts “mechanical” with “outside-the-box” thinking, reinforcement learners can “think outside the box” but can’t find the box?

http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/08/02/where-the-falling-einstein-meets-the-rising-mouse/
ratty  core-rats  summary  prediction  trends  analysis  spock  ai  deep-learning  state-of-art  🤖  deepgoog  games  nlp  computer-vision  nibble  reinforcement  model-class  faq  org:bleg  shift  chart  technology  language  audio  accuracy  speaking  foreign-lang  definite-planning  china  asia  microsoft  google  ideas  article  speedometer  whiggish-hegelian  yvain  ssc  smoothness  data  hsu  scitariat  genetics  iq  enhancement  genetic-load  neuro  neuro-nitgrit  brain-scan  time-series  multiplicative  iteration-recursion  additive  multi 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Jay is games - We do online and Mobile Game Reviews
really would like to find that one game. just remember: point&click adventure, prob flash, blue humanoids, pastoral music during credits.
nostalgia  games  media  internet  browser 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Guess the Correlation
some basic rules?
- more trouble w/ high than low end (maybe because I'm just guessing slope/omitting outliers?)
- should try out w/ correlated Gaussians to get some intuition
games  learning  stats  intuition  thinking  hmm  street-fighting  correlation  instinct  mental-math  nitty-gritty  simulation  operational  todo  spock  quantitative-qualitative  dependence-independence 
july 2016 by nhaliday
Spaceship Generator | Hacker News
some interesting discussion of the value of procedural generation in the comments
commentary  hn  graphics  games  programming  libraries  repo  oss  project  SIGGRAPH 
june 2016 by nhaliday
« earlier      
per page:    204080120160

bundles : vulgar

related tags

80000-hours  :/  ability-competence  accelerationism  accuracy  acmtariat  additive  advice  aesthetics  africa  age-generation  aging  agriculture  ai  ai-control  albion  algebra  algorithms  alien-character  alignment  allodium  altruism  amazon  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anglo  anglosphere  announcement  anthropology  antidemos  apollonian-dionysian  apple  approximation  arbitrage  aristos  arms  art  article  asia  atmosphere  atoms  attaq  attention  audio  authoritarianism  auto-learning  automation  backup  bandits  bangbang  bare-hands  barons  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  being-becoming  benevolence  best-practices  big-list  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  bioinformatics  biotech  blog  books  bootstraps  brain-scan  brands  britain  broad-econ  browser  business  business-models  calculation  california  cancer  canon  capital  capitalism  career  carmack  cartoons  chan  charity  chart  china  civic  civil-liberty  clarity  class  classic  clever-rats  climate-change  cliometrics  clown-world  coalitions  coarse-fine  cocktail  cog-psych  cold-war  collaboration  coming-apart  commentary  communication  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complement-substitute  complex-systems  complexity  composition-decomposition  computation  computer-vision  concrete  consumerism  contrarianism  convexity-curvature  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  counter-revolution  courage  course  cracker-econ  creative  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  CRISPR  critique  crooked  crux  crypto  cs  culture  culture-war  current-events  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  darwinian  data  data-science  dataset  death  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  deep-learning  deep-materialism  deepgoog  defense  definite-planning  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  demographics  dependence-independence  design  detail-architecture  deterrence  developing-world  developmental  dignity  dimensionality  dirty-hands  discrete  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  diversity  dropbox  drugs  duplication  dynamic  early-modern  econ-metrics  econometrics  economics  econotariat  education  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  eh  einstein  elections  elite  embedded  embodied  embodied-pack  empirical  ems  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  engineering  enhancement  entrepreneurialism  environment  envy  epidemiology  epistemic  error  essay  essence-existence  estimate  ethics  EU  europe  events  evidence-based  evolution  examples  existence  exit-voice  expansionism  experiment  expert  expert-experience  explanans  explanation  exploratory  exposition  extra-introversion  extratricky  facebook  faq  fashun  FDA  fermi  feudal  feynman  fiction  finance  fixed-point  flexibility  fluid  focus  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  frameworks  free  frontier  functional  futurism  gallic  game-theory  games  garett-jones  gedanken  gender  gender-diff  generalization  generative  genetic-load  genetics  genomics  geoengineering  geography  geopolitics  germanic  giants  gilens-page  gnon  gnosis-logos  god-man-beast-victim  google  government  gowers  grad-school  gradient-descent  graphics  ground-up  group-level  guide  gwern  h2o  hacker  hard-tech  hardware  harvard  heterodox  heuristic  hi-order-bits  hidden-motives  high-variance  higher-ed  history  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  honor  hsu  human-bean  human-capital  human-ml  humanity  hypocrisy  ideas  ideology  impetus  incentives  india  indie  individualism-collectivism  inequality  info-dynamics  init  innovation  insight  instinct  institutions  intel  interdisciplinary  interests  internet  intervention  interview  intuition  investing  iq  iran  islam  israel  iteration-recursion  janus  japan  jobs  journos-pundits  justice  knowledge  labor  land  language  latin-america  law  leadership  learning  lecture-notes  legibility  len:long  len:short  lens  lesswrong  letters  leviathan  libraries  life-history  limits  liner-notes  links  list  literature  lmao  local-global  lol  long-short-run  long-term  longevity  love-hate  lurid  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  male-variability  management  managerial-state  map-territory  maps  marginal  marginal-rev  market-power  markets  math  math.CA  math.GR  mathtariat  maxim-gun  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  memes(ew)  MENA  mental-math  meta-analysis  meta:research  meta:rhetoric  meta:war  metabuch  metameta  michael-nielsen  micro  microbiz  microfoundations  microsoft  midwest  migrant-crisis  migration  military  minimalism  miri-cfar  mit  mobile  model-class  model-organism  models  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  music  musk  myth  n-factor  narrative  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  navigation  neocons  network-structure  networking  neuro  neuro-nitgrit  neurons  new-religion  news  nibble  nietzschean  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  nlp  noble-lie  nonlinearity  nootropics  nordic  northeast  nostalgia  nuclear  null-result  number  nutrition  nyc  obesity  objektbuch  occident  offense-defense  old-anglo  oly  online-learning  open-closed  openai  operational  optimate  optimism  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bleg  org:data  org:edu  org:foreign  org:gov  org:health  org:inst  org:junk  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  org:theos  organization  organizing  orient  oscillation  oss  outcome-risk  outdoors  outliers  overflow  p:whenever  papers  parable  paradox  parallax  parasites-microbiome  paste  paternal-age  patho-altruism  patience  pdf  peace-violence  people  performance  personality  persuasion  pessimism  phalanges  pharma  philosophy  physics  pic  piketty  planning  play  plots  poast  podcast  polanyi-marx  polarization  policy  polis  polisci  politics  poll  pop-diff  popsci  populism  postmortem  postrat  power  power-law  practice  pragmatic  pre-ww2  prediction  prepping  preprint  presentation  primitivism  princeton  privacy  pro-rata  probability  problem-solving  productivity  programming  project  propaganda  properties  proposal  pseudoE  pseudorandomness  psych-architecture  psychology  psychometrics  public-health  putnam-like  puzzles  q-n-a  qra  quantitative-qualitative  quantum  questions  quixotic  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  ratty  realness  realpolitik  reason  rec-math  recruiting  reddit  redistribution  reduction  reference  reflection  regional-scatter-plots  regularization  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement  religion  rent-seeking  repo  research  research-program  retention  review  revolution  rhetoric  rhythm  risk  ritual  robotics  robust  roots  rot  russia  rust  s:**  sales  satire  scale  scholar  science  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  search  securities  security  self-control  self-interest  sex  shakespeare  shift  SIGGRAPH  signal-noise  signaling  similarity  simulation  singularity  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  sky  slides  smoothness  social  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  society  socs-and-mops  soft-question  software  space  spatial  speaking  speculation  speed  speedometer  spock  sports  spreading  ssc  stackex  stagnation  stanford  startups  state-of-art  statesmen  stats  status  stereotypes  stochastic-processes  stock-flow  store  stories  strategy  stream  street-fighting  structure  study  studying  stylized-facts  subculture  success  summary  supply-demand  survey  survival  sv  synchrony  synthesis  systems  tactics  tails  tcs  tcstariat  teaching  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  telos-atelos  terrorism  the-classics  the-devil  the-founding  the-great-west-whale  the-monster  the-south  the-trenches  the-watchers  the-west  theory-of-mind  theos  thick-thin  thiel  things  thinking  tidbits  time  time-complexity  time-preference  time-series  tocqueville  todo  tools  top-n  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  transportation  travel  trends  tribalism  trivia  trust  truth  tutoring  tv  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  unit  unsupervised  urban-rural  us-them  usa  vague  values  variance-components  venture  video  virtu  visual-understanding  visualization  visuo  vitality  volo-avolo  vulgar  war  wealth  wealth-of-nations  webapp  weird-sun  welfare-state  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  wire-guided  wisdom  within-without  woah  wonkish  world  world-war  worrydream  wtf  X-not-about-Y  yvain  zero-positive-sum  zooming  🎓  🎩  🐸  🖥  🤖 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: