nhaliday + dependence-independence   22

How is definiteness expressed in languages with no definite article, clitic or affix? - Linguistics Stack Exchange
All languages, as far as we know, do something to mark information status. Basically this means that when you refer to an X, you have to do something to indicate the answer to questions like:
1. Do you have a specific X in mind?
2. If so, you think your hearer is familiar with the X you're talking about?
3. If so, have you already been discussing that X for a while, or is it new to the conversation?
4. If you've been discussing the X for a while, has it been the main topic of conversation?

Question #2 is more or less what we mean by "definiteness."
...

But there are lots of other information-status-marking strategies that don't directly involve definiteness marking. For example:
...
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6 weeks ago by nhaliday
Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation
Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This article provides experimental evidence that many people neglect the resulting double-counting problem in the updating process. In consequence, beliefs are too sensitive to the ubiquitous “telling and re-telling of stories” and exhibit excessive swings. We identify substantial and systematic heterogeneity in the presence of the bias and investigate the underlying mechanisms. The evidence points to the paramount importance of complexity in combination with people’s problems in identifying and thinking through the correlation. Even though most participants in principle have the computational skills that are necessary to develop rational beliefs, many approach the problem in a wrong way when the environment is moderately complex. Thus, experimentally nudging people’s focus towards the correlation and the underlying independent signals has large effects on beliefs.
study  psychology  cog-psych  social-psych  polisci  epistemic  rationality  biases  dependence-independence  degrees-of-freedom  iidness  media  propaganda  info-dynamics  info-foraging  truth  managerial-state  communication  correlation  🎩 
9 weeks ago by nhaliday
Vladimir Novakovski's answer to What financial advice would you give to a 21-year-old? - Quora
Learn economics and see that investment and consumption levels (as percentages) depend only marginally on age and existing net worth and mostly on your risk preferences and utility function.
qra  q-n-a  oly  advice  reflection  personal-finance  ORFE  outcome-risk  investing  time-preference  age-generation  dependence-independence  economics 
february 2019 by nhaliday
Variance of product of multiple random variables - Cross Validated
prod_i (var[X_i] + (E[X_i])^2) - prod_i (E[X_i])^2

two variable case: var[X] var[Y] + var[X] (E[Y])^2 + (E[X])^2 var[Y]
nibble  q-n-a  overflow  stats  probability  math  identity  moments  arrows  multiplicative  iidness  dependence-independence 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Pearson correlation coefficient - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination
what does this mean?: https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/863546692724858880
deleted but it was about the Pearson correlation distance: 1-r
I guess it's a metric

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explained_variation

http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2014/02/correlation-and-variance.html
A less misleading way to think about the correlation R is as follows: given X,Y from a standardized bivariate distribution with correlation R, an increase in X leads to an expected increase in Y: dY = R dX. In other words, students with +1 SD SAT score have, on average, roughly +0.4 SD college GPAs. Similarly, students with +1 SD college GPAs have on average +0.4 SAT.

this reminds me of the breeder's equation (but it uses r instead of h^2, so it can't actually be the same)

https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/631haf/on_the_commentariat_here_and_why_i_dont_think_i/dfx4e2s/
stats  science  hypothesis-testing  correlation  metrics  plots  regression  wiki  reference  nibble  methodology  multi  twitter  social  discussion  best-practices  econotariat  garett-jones  concept  conceptual-vocab  accuracy  causation  acm  matrix-factorization  todo  explanation  yoga  hsu  street-fighting  levers  🌞  2014  scitariat  variance-components  meta:prediction  biodet  s:**  mental-math  reddit  commentary  ssc  poast  gwern  data-science  metric-space  similarity  measure  dependence-independence 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Mixing (mathematics) - Wikipedia
One way to describe this is that strong mixing implies that for any two possible states of the system (realizations of the random variable), when given a sufficient amount of time between the two states, the occurrence of the states is independent.

Mixing coefficient is
α(n) = sup{|P(A∪B) - P(A)P(B)| : A in σ(X_0, ..., X_{t-1}), B in σ(X_{t+n}, ...), t >= 0}
for σ(...) the sigma algebra generated by those r.v.s.

So it's a notion of total variational distance between the true distribution and the product distribution.
concept  math  acm  physics  probability  stochastic-processes  definition  mixing  iidness  wiki  reference  nibble  limits  ergodic  math.DS  measure  dependence-independence 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Guess the Correlation
some basic rules?
- more trouble w/ high than low end (maybe because I'm just guessing slope/omitting outliers?)
- should try out w/ correlated Gaussians to get some intuition
games  learning  stats  intuition  thinking  hmm  street-fighting  correlation  instinct  mental-math  nitty-gritty  simulation  operational  todo  spock  quantitative-qualitative  dependence-independence 
july 2016 by nhaliday

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