nhaliday + acemoglu + econometrics   3

Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets
We show that commuting zones most affected by robots in the post-1990 era were on similar trends to others before 1990, and that the impact of robots is distinct and only weakly correlated with the prevalence of routine jobs, the impact of imports from China, and overall capital utilization. According to our estimates, each additional robot reduces employment by about seven workers, and one new robot per thousand workers reduces wages by 1.2 to 1.6 percent.

study  acemoglu  economics  automation  labor  trends  winner-take-all  🎩  trade  econometrics  pdf  technology  the-world-is-just-atoms  compensation  roots  capital  stylized-facts  china  asia  heavy-industry  trump  2016-election  postmortem  multi  elections  data  visualization  analysis  org:edu  oxbridge 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings
A central organizing framework of the voluminous recent literature studying changes in the returns to skills and the evolution of earnings inequality is what we refer to as the canonical model, which elegantly and powerfully operationalizes the supply and demand for skills by assuming two distinct skill groups that perform two different and imperfectly substitutable tasks or produce two imperfectly substitutable goods. Technology is assumed to take a factor-augmenting form, which, by complementing either high or low skill workers, can generate skill biased demand shifts. In this paper, we argue that despite its notable successes, the canonical model is largely silent on a number of central empirical developments of the last three decades, including: (1) significant declines in real wages of low skill workers, particularly low skill males; (2) non-monotone changes in wages at different parts of the earnings distribution during different decades; (3) broad-based increases in employment in high skill and low skill occupations relative to middle skilled occupations (i.e., job 'polarization'); (4) rapid diffusion of new technologies that directly substitute capital for labor in tasks previously performed by moderately-skilled workers; and (5) expanding offshoring opportunities, enabled by technology, which allow foreign labor to substitute for domestic workers in specific tasks. Motivated by these patterns, we argue that it is valuable to consider a richer framework for analyzing how recent changes in the earnings and employment distribution in the United States and other advanced economies are shaped by the interactions among worker skills, job tasks, evolving technologies, and shifting trading opportunities. We propose a tractable task-based model in which the assignment of skills to tasks is endogenous and technical change may involve the substitution of machines for certain tasks previously performed by labor. We further consider how the evolution of technology in this task-based setting may be endogenized. We show how such a framework can be used to interpret several central recent trends, and we also suggest further directions for empirical exploration.

study  acemoglu  economics  models  trends  labor  automation  education  human-capital  🎩  winner-take-all  econometrics  planning  compensation  capital  polarization  stylized-facts  heavy-industry  multi  news  org:rec  krugman  regularizer 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation
Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If anything, countries experiencing more rapid aging have grown more in recent decades. We suggest that this counterintuitive finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes, and provide evidence and theoretical underpinnings for this argument.
pdf  study  economics  growth-econ  stagnation  trends  demographics  automation  acemoglu  contrarianism  correlation  econometrics  econ-productivity  malaise  hmm  age-generation  speedometer  japan  asia  fertility  modernity  input-output 
january 2017 by nhaliday

bundles : econframepeeps

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