nhaliday + :/   73

Sage: Open Source Mathematics Software: You don't really think that Sage has failed, do you?
> P.S. You don't _really_ think that Sage has failed, do you?

After almost exactly 10 years of working on the Sage project, I absolutely do think it has failed to accomplish the stated goal of the mission statement: "Create a viable free open source alternative to Magma, Maple, Mathematica and Matlab.".     When it was only a few years into the project, it was really hard to evaluate progress against such a lofty mission statement.  However, after 10 years, it's clear to me that not only have we not got there, we are not going to ever get there before I retire.   And that's definitely a failure.   
mathtariat  reflection  failure  cost-benefit  oss  software  math  CAS  tools  state-of-art  expert-experience  review  comparison  saas  cloud  :/ 
july 2019 by nhaliday
What's Wrong With Growing Blobs of Brain Tissue? - The Atlantic
These increasingly complex organoids aren't conscious—but we might not know when they cross that line.

I don't know why you would even *want* to do this tbh... What's the application?
news  org:mag  popsci  hmm  :/  dignity  morality  ethics  formal-values  philosophy  biotech  neuro  dennett  within-without  weird  wtf  ed-yong  brain-scan  medicine  science 
april 2018 by nhaliday
The Western Elite from a Chinese Perspective - American Affairs Journal
I don’t claim to be a modern-day Alexis de Tocqueville, nor do I have much in common with this famous observer of American life. He grew up in Paris, a city renowned for its culture and architecture. I grew up in Shijiazhuang, a city renowned for being the headquarters of the company that produced toxic infant formula. He was a child of aristocrats; I am the child of modest workers.

Nevertheless, I hope my candid observations can provide some insights into the elite institutions of the West. Certain beliefs are as ubiquitous among the people I went to school with as smog was in Shijiazhuang. The doctrines that shape the worldviews and cultural assumptions at elite Western institutions like Cambridge, Stanford, and Goldman Sachs have become almost religious. Nevertheless, I hope that the perspective of a candid Chinese atheist can be of some instruction to them.

...

So I came to the UK in 2001, when I was 16 years old. Much to my surprise, I found the UK’s exam-focused educational system very similar to the one in China. What is more, in both countries, going to the “right schools” and getting the “right job” are seen as very important by a large group of eager parents. As a result, scoring well on exams and doing well in school interviews—or even the play session for the nursery or pre-prep school—become the most important things in the world. Even at the university level, the undergraduate degree from the University of Cambridge depends on nothing else but an exam at the end of the last year.

On the other hand, although the UK’s university system is considered superior to China’s, with a population that is only one-twentieth the size of my native country, competition, while tough, is less intimidating. For example, about one in ten applicants gets into Oxbridge in the UK, and Stanford and Harvard accept about one in twenty-five applicants. But in Hebei province in China, where I am from, only one in fifteen hundred applicants gets into Peking or Qinghua University.

Still, I found it hard to believe how much easier everything became. I scored first nationwide in the GCSE (high school) math exam, and my photo was printed in a national newspaper. I was admitted into Trinity College, University of Cambridge, once the home of Sir Isaac Newton, Francis Bacon, and Prince Charles.

I studied economics at Cambridge, a field which has become more and more mathematical since the 1970s. The goal is always to use a mathematical model to find a closed-form solution to a real-world problem. Looking back, I’m not sure why my professors were so focused on these models. I have since found that the mistake of blindly relying on models is quite widespread in both trading and investing—often with disastrous results, such as the infamous collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. Years later, I discovered the teaching of Warren Buffett: it is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. But our professors taught us to think of the real world as a math problem.

The culture of Cambridge followed the dogmas of the classroom: a fervent adherence to rules and models established by tradition. For example, at Cambridge, students are forbidden to walk on grass. This right is reserved for professors only. The only exception is for those who achieve first class honors in exams; they are allowed to walk on one area of grass on one day of the year.

The behavior of my British classmates demonstrated an even greater herd mentality than what is often mocked in American MBAs. For example, out of the thirteen economists in my year at Trinity, twelve would go on to join investment banks, and five of us went to work for Goldman Sachs.

...

To me, Costco represents the best of American capitalism. It is a corporation known for having its customers and employees in mind, while at the same time it has compensated its shareholders handsomely over the years. To the customers, it offers the best combination of quality and low cost. Whenever it manages to reduce costs, it passes the savings on to customers immediately. Achieving a 10 percent gross margin with prices below Amazon’s is truly incredible. After I had been there once, I found it hard to shop elsewhere.

Meanwhile, its salaries are much higher than similar retail jobs. When the recession hit in 2008, the company increased salaries to help employees cope with the difficult environment. From the name tags the staff wear, I have seen that frontline employees work there for decades, something hard to imagine elsewhere.

Stanford was for me a distant second to Costco in terms of the American capitalist experience. Overall, I enjoyed the curriculum at the GSB. Inevitably I found some classes less interesting, but the professors all seemed to be quite understanding, even when they saw me reading my kindle during class.

One class was about strategy. It focused on how corporate mottos and logos could inspire employees. Many of the students had worked for nonprofits or health care or tech companies, all of which had mottos about changing the world, saving lives, saving the planet, etc. The professor seemed to like these mottos. I told him that at Goldman our motto was “be long-term greedy.” The professor couldn’t understand this motto or why it was inspiring. I explained to him that everyone else in the market was short-term greedy and, as a result, we took all their money. Since traders like money, this was inspiring. He asked if perhaps there was another motto or logo that my other classmates might connect with. I told him about the black swan I kept on my desk as a reminder that low probability events happen with high frequency. He didn’t like that motto either and decided to call on another student, who had worked at Pfizer. Their motto was “all people deserve to live healthy lives.” The professor thought this was much better. I didn’t understand how it would motivate employees, but this was exactly why I had come to Stanford: to learn the key lessons of interpersonal communication and leadership.

On the communication and leadership front, I came to the GSB knowing I was not good and hoped to get better. My favorite class was called “Interpersonal Dynamics” or, as students referred to it, “Touchy Feely.” In “Touchy Feely,” students get very candid feedback on how their words and actions affect others in a small group that meets several hours per week for a whole quarter.

We talked about microaggressions and feelings and empathy and listening. Sometimes in class the professor would say things to me like “Puzhong, when Mary said that, I could see you were really feeling something,” or “Puzhong, I could see in your eyes that Peter’s story affected you.” And I would tell them I didn’t feel anything. I was quite confused.

One of the papers we studied mentioned that subjects are often not conscious of their own feelings when fully immersed in a situation. But body indicators such as heart rate would show whether the person is experiencing strong emotions. I thought that I generally didn’t have a lot of emotions and decided that this might be a good way for me to discover my hidden emotions that the professor kept asking about.

So I bought a heart rate monitor and checked my resting heart rate. Right around 78. And when the professor said to me in class “Puzhong, I can see that story brought up some emotions in you,” I rolled up my sleeve and checked my heart rate. It was about 77. And so I said, “nope, no emotion.” The experiment seemed to confirm my prior belief: my heart rate hardly moved, even when I was criticized, though it did jump when I became excited or laughed.

This didn’t land well on some of my classmates. They felt I was not treating these matters with the seriousness that they deserved. The professor was very angry. My takeaway was that my interpersonal skills were so bad that I could easily offend people unintentionally, so I concluded that after graduation I should do something that involved as little human interaction as possible.

Therefore, I decided I needed to return to work in financial markets rather than attempting something else. I went to the career service office and told them that my primary goal after the MBA was to make money. I told them that $500,000 sounded like a good number. They were very confused, though, as they said their goal was to help me find my passion and my calling. I told them that my calling was to make money for my family. They were trying to be helpful, but in my case, their advice didn’t turn out to be very helpful.

Eventually I was able to meet the chief financial officer of my favorite company, Costco. He told me that they don’t hire any MBAs. Everyone starts by pushing trolleys. (I have seriously thought about doing just that. But my wife is strongly against it.) Maybe, I thought, that is why the company is so successful—no MBAs!

...

Warren Buffett has said that the moment one was born in the United States or another Western country, that person has essentially won a lottery. If someone is born a U.S. citizen, he or she enjoys a huge advantage in almost every aspect of life, including expected wealth, education, health care, environment, safety, etc., when compared to someone born in developing countries. For someone foreign to “purchase” these privileges, the price tag at the moment is $1 million dollars (the rough value of the EB-5 investment visa). Even at this price level, the demand from certain countries routinely exceeds the annual allocated quota, resulting in long waiting times. In that sense, American citizens were born millionaires!

Yet one wonders how long such luck will last. This brings me back to the title of Rubin’s book, his “uncertain world.” In such a world, the vast majority things are outside our control, determined by God or luck. After we have given our best and once the final card is drawn, we should neither become too excited by what we have achieved nor too depressed by what we failed to … [more]
news  org:mag  org:popup  letters  lol  :/  china  asia  sinosphere  orient  usa  the-great-west-whale  occident  rot  zeitgeist  tocqueville  culture  comparison  malaise  aphorism  random  realness  hypocrisy  emotion  success  counter-revolution  nascent-state  communism  capitalism  education  higher-ed  britain  anglosphere  competition  oxbridge  tradition  flux-stasis  finance  innovation  autism  👽  near-far  within-without  business  gnon  🐸  twitter  social  commentary  discussion  backup  mena4  futurism  trends  elite  institutions  religion  christianity  theos  truth  scale  population  courage  vitality  models  map-territory  long-short-run  time-preference  patience  temperance  virtu  cultural-dynamics  input-output  impact  investing  monetary-fiscal  is-ought  pic  unaffiliated  right-wing  analytical-holistic  systematic-ad-hoc  stanford  n-factor  civilization  management  industrial-org  people  stream  alien-character  pro-rata  tails  gnosis-logos  signal-noise  pragmatic 
january 2018 by nhaliday
GOP tax plan would provide major gains for richest 1%, uneven benefits for the middle class, report says - The Washington Post
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/913863513038311426
https://archive.is/PYRx9
Trump tweets: For his voters.
Tax plan: Something else entirely.
https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/913864779256692737
https://archive.is/5bzQz
This is appallingly stupid if accurate

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/28/upshot/what-the-tax-bill-would-look-like-for-25000-middle-class-families.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/30/us/politics/tax-cuts-increases-for-your-income.html

Treasury Removes Paper at Odds With Mnuchin’s Take on Corporate-Tax Cut’s Winners: https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-removes-paper-at-odds-with-mnuchins-take-on-corporate-tax-cuts-winners-1506638463

Tax changes for graduate students under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: https://bcide.gitlab.io/post/gop-tax-plan/
H.R.1 – 155th Congress (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) 1 proposes changes to the US Tax Code that threatens to destroy the finances of STEM graduate students nationwide. The offending provision, 1204(a)(3), strikes section 117(d) 2 of the US Tax Code. This means that under the proposal, tuition waivers are considered taxable income.

For graduate students, this means an increase of thousands of dollars in owed federal taxes. Below I show a calculation for my own situation. The short of it is this: My federal taxes increase from ~7.5% of my income to ~31%. I will owe about $6300 more in federal taxes under this legislation. Like many other STEM students, my choices would be limited to taking on significant debt or quitting my program entirely.

The Republican War on College: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/11/republican-college/546308/

Trump's plan to tax colleges will harm higher education — but it's still a good idea: http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-taxing-colleges-is-a-good-idea-2017-11
- James Miller

The Republican Tax Plan Is a Disaster for Families With Children: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/11/the-republican-tax-plan-is-a-disaster-for-families-with-children/
- Kevin Drum

The gains from cutting corporate tax rates: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/11/corporate-taxes-2.html
I’ve been reading in this area on and off since the 1980s, and I really don’t think these are phony results.

Entrepreneurship and State Taxation: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2018003pap.pdf
We find that new firm employment is negatively—and disproportionately—affected by corporate tax rates. We find little evidence of an effect of personal and sales taxes on entrepreneurial outcomes.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/26/us/politics/johnson-amendment-churches-taxes-politics.html
nobody in the comments section seems to have even considered the comparison with universities

The GOP Tax Bills Are Infrastructure Bills Too. Here’s Why.: http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/gov-republican-tax-bills-impact-infrastructure.html
news  org:rec  trump  current-events  wonkish  policy  taxes  data  analysis  visualization  money  monetary-fiscal  compensation  class  hmm  :/  coalitions  multi  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  backup  class-warfare  redistribution  elite  vampire-squid  crooked  journos-pundits  tactics  strategy  politics  increase-decrease  pro-rata  labor  capital  distribution  corporation  corruption  anomie  counter-revolution  higher-ed  academia  nascent-state  mathtariat  phd  grad-school  org:mag  left-wing  econotariat  marginal-rev  links  study  summary  economics  econometrics  endogenous-exogenous  natural-experiment  longitudinal  regularizer  religion  christianity  org:gov  infrastructure  transportation  cracker-econ  org:lite  org:biz  crosstab  dynamic  let-me-see  cost-benefit  entrepreneurialism  branches  geography  usa  within-group 
september 2017 by nhaliday
THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF SOCIAL SKILLS IN THE LABOR MARKET*
key fact: cognitive ability is not growing in importance, but non-cognitive ability is

The labor market increasingly rewards social skills. Between 1980 and 2012, jobs requiring high levels of social interaction grew by nearly 12 percentage points as a share of the U.S. labor force. Math-intensive but less social jobs—including many STEM occupations—shrank by 3.3 percentage points over the same period. Employment and wage growth was particularly strong for jobs requiring high levels of both math skill and social skill. To understand these patterns, I develop a model of team production where workers “trade tasks” to exploit their comparative advantage. In the model, social skills reduce coordination costs, allowing workers to specialize and work together more efficiently. The model generates predictions about sorting and the relative returns to skill across occupations, which I investigate using data from the NLSY79 and the NLSY97. Using a comparable set of skill measures and covariates across survey waves, I find that the labor market return to social skills was much greater in the 2000s than in the mid 1980s and 1990s. JEL Codes: I20, I24, J01, J23, J24, J31

The Increasing Complementarity between Cognitive and Social Skills: http://econ.ucsb.edu/~weinberg/MathSocialWeinberger.pdf

The Changing Roles of Education and Ability in Wage Determination: http://business.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@commerce/@research/documents/doc/uow130116.pdf

Intelligence and socioeconomic success: A meta-analytic review of longitudinal research: http://www.emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-content/uploads/Intelligence-and-socioeconomic-success-A-meta-analytic-review-of-longitudinal-research.pdf
Moderator analyses showed that the relationship between intelligence and success is dependent on the age of the sample but there is little evidence of any historical trend in the relationship.

https://twitter.com/khazar_milkers/status/898996206973603840
https://archive.is/7gLXv
that feelio when america has crossed an inflection point and EQ is obviously more important for success in todays society than IQ
I think this is how to understand a lot of "corporate commitment to diversity" stuff.Not the only reason ofc, but reason it's so impregnable
compare: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:e9ac3d38e7a1
and: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:a38f5756170d

g-reliant skills seem most susceptible to automation: https://fredrikdeboer.com/2017/06/14/g-reliant-skills-seem-most-susceptible-to-automation/

THE ERROR TERM: https://spottedtoad.wordpress.com/2018/02/19/the-error-term/
Imagine an objective function- something you want to maximize or minimize- with both a deterministic and a random component.

...

Part of y is rules-based and rational, part is random and outside rational control. Obviously, the ascent of civilization has, to the extent it has taken place, been based on focusing energies on those parts of the world that are responsive to rational interpretation and control.

But an interesting thing happens once automated processes are able to take over the mapping of patterns onto rules. The portion of the world that is responsive to algorithmic interpretation is also the rational, rules-based portion, almost tautologically. But in terms of our actual objective functions- the real portions of the world that we are trying to affect or influence- subtracting out the portion susceptible to algorithms does not eliminate the variation or make it unimportant. It simply makes it much more purely random rather than only partially so.

The interesting thing, to me, is that economic returns accumulate to the random portion of variation just as to the deterministic portion. In fact, if everybody has access to the same algorithms, the returns may well be largely to the random portion. The efficient market hypothesis in action, more or less.

...

But more generally, as more and more of the society comes under algorithmic control, as various forms of automated intelligence become ubiquitous, the remaining portion, and the portion for which individual workers are rewarded, might well become more irrational, more random, less satisfying, less intelligent.

Golden age for team players: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/10/social-skills-increasingly-valuable-to-employers-harvard-economist-finds/
Strong social skills increasingly valuable to employers, study finds

Number of available jobs by skill set (over time)

Changes in hourly wages by skill set (over time)

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/947904725294260224
https://archive.is/EEQA9
A resolution for the new year: Remember that intelligence is a predictor of social intelligence!
pdf  study  economics  econometrics  trends  labor  intelligence  iq  personality  psych-architecture  compensation  human-capital  🎩  data  regularizer  hmm  career  planning  long-term  stylized-facts  management  polarization  stagnation  inequality  leadership  longitudinal  chart  zeitgeist  s-factor  history  mostly-modern  usa  correlation  gnon  🐸  twitter  social  memes(ew)  pic  discussion  diversity  managerial-state  unaffiliated  left-wing  automation  gender  backup  westminster  multi  working-stiff  news  org:edu  time-series  :/  coordination  collaboration  money  medicine  law  teaching  education  tech  dirty-hands  engineering  supply-demand  ratty  large-factor  signal-noise  order-disorder  random  technocracy  branches  unintended-consequences  ai  prediction  speculation  theory-of-mind 
august 2017 by nhaliday
mental gluttony – Snakes and Ladders
Again, while it is a great blessing that a man no longer has to be rich in order to enjoy the masterpieces of the past, for paperbacks, first-rate color reproductions, and stereo-phonograph records have made them available to all but the very poor, this ease of access, if misused — and we do misuse it — can become a curse. We are all of us tempted to read more books, look at more pictures, listen to more music than we can possibly absorb, and the result of such gluttony is not a cultured mind but a consuming one; what it reads, looks at, listens to is immediately forgotten, leaving no more traces behind than yesterday’s newspaper.

https://twitter.com/eli_schiff/status/860648590854762498
Clearing up browser bookmarks of saved reading. Realizing that having way too much to read for a lifetime isn't something to be proud of.

https://twitter.com/GtaGrothendieck/status/886639545583886336
letters  pinboard  info-dynamics  info-foraging  attention  the-monster  temperance  prudence  culture  big-peeps  aristos  old-anglo  aphorism  quotes  rhetoric  advice  regularizer  prioritizing  workflow  twitter  social  discussion  techtariat  internet  notetaking  exocortex  multi  unaffiliated  gnon  right-wing  explore-exploit  :/ 
july 2017 by nhaliday
Our civilization’s Ottoman years – Gene Expression
How does any of this apply to today? Perhaps this time it’s different, but it seems implausible to me that our multicultural future is going to involve equality between the different peoples. Rather, there will be accommodation and understandings. Much of the population will be subject to immiseration of subsistence but not flourishing. They may have some universal basic income, but they will be lack the dignity of work. Identity, religious and otherwise, will become necessary opiums of the people. The people will have their tribunes, who represent their interests, and give them the illusion or semi-reality of a modicum agency.

The tribunes, who will represent classical ethno-cultural blocs recognizable to us today, will deal with a supra-national global patriciate. Like the Ottoman elite it will not necessarily be ethnically homogeneous. There will be aspects of meritocracy to it, but it will be narrow, delimited, and see itself self-consciously above and beyond local identities and concerns. The patriciate itself may be divided. But their common dynamic will be that they will be supra-national, mobile, and economically liberated as opposed to dependent.

Of course democracy will continue. Augustus claimed he revived the Roman Republic. The tiny city-state of Constantinople in the 15th century claimed it was the Roman Empire. And so on. Outward forms and niceties may be maintained, but death of the nation-state at the hands of identity politics and late stage capitalism will usher in the era of oligarchic multinationalism.

I could be wrong. I hope I am.

AMERICA’S DEMOGRAPHIC DELIBERALIZATION: https://jacobitemag.com/2017/11/03/americas-demographic-deliberalization/
But in the wake of the Civil Rights movement a new multiracial and multicultural vision of America took hold. This counter-narrative rapidly became orthodoxy; it held that the nation belongs to people of all races and cultures, not just whites. That it always belonged to other peoples, even if they had not enjoyed recognition by the white majority.

...

America as a multicultural polity is not an aspiration, but a simple description of fact. We are today a coalition of different factions bound together legally, but rapidly dissipating any cultural unity.

History is rife with stable multicultural societies: the ancient Roman Empire, the territories of the Ottomans, the Mughal Empire. These diverse states maintained harmony through a hierarchy. Understandings and accommodations among elites of the various peoples smoothed tensions and allowed for the operation of government despite animosity simmering beneath the surface. Populist mass movements are functionally impossible within a diverse medley of cultures, because politics in these societies develop into byzantine games of balance, or coalitions of coercion. No social consensus takes hold, preventing any unanimity of purpose.

In these culturally diverse systems there emerge tribunes of the peoples. The plural is key here, for the various people brought together under an empire represent the interest of sub-nations within the greater whole. In the Ottoman Empire Christian sects were led by their clerics, whether Greek Orthodox, Jacobite or the Coptic pope. In the Roman Empire federates were administered under their own law and led by their own warlords. The British Raj at its peak was a coalition of peoples and monarchs, with the queen or king at the apogee of the system.

...

Donald Trump as President of the United States is not a world-historical aberration. His ethno-nationalist vision of the Republican party is to be expected as a reflection of the white American population which is now becoming as racially conscious as minorities have been of late. Facing their own demographic marginalization they are reasserting their own uniqueness. In Europe the rise of ethno-nationalist right-wing parties is a phenomenon that can be attributed to economic distress. But recessions come and go. Rather, demographic and cultural changes are producing men and women who channel the reactionary impulses of a populace who see the world they knew fading away. The National Front, Freedom Party, and Alternative for Germany, are symptoms of a broader phenomenon which won’t be a passing phase.

But the reality is that demagogues cannot turn back time. They can only delay the inevitable. Sans mass ethnic cleansing, accommodations between peoples must occur. And when these accommodations come they will operate as understandings between elites of disparate peoples, and the political units which emerge to foster stability will resemble the ramshackle oligarchies and monarchies. When the people are too many dissonant voices, conductors must come on stage and enforce harmony and suppress individuality. In an age of diversity there will come the oligarchy.

https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/950859025327017984
https://archive.is/L5i5R
we are all some oligarch's bitch at some point. find your oligarch, know your oligarch, and nurture your relationship with them. it matters
--
Return of the Roman patron-client relationship...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patronage_in_ancient_Rome

https://twitter.com/thespandrell/status/954400568159752192
https://archive.is/94yRl
https://archive.is/zHTgH
So is baizouism the official religion of the permanent government in the states at this point?

How do we get the reaction? The Napoleon or the Deng who puts a stop to the madness?
--
of course it is.
gnxp  scitariat  speculation  prediction  futurism  world  nationalism-globalism  class-warfare  identity-politics  tribalism  diversity  conquest-empire  MENA  history  iron-age  medieval  early-modern  mediterranean  cultural-dynamics  anthropology  politics  culture-war  culture  society  elite  vampire-squid  n-factor  individualism-collectivism  democracy  putnam-like  madisonian  inequality  polarization  islam  winner-take-all  dignity  trends  pessimism  multi  populism  egalitarianism-hierarchy  pre-ww2  mostly-modern  usa  gnon  org:popup  ethnocentrism  flux-stasis  homo-hetero  cohesion  :/  us-them  self-interest  justice  feudal  twitter  social  discussion  backup  the-classics  civilization  sulla  wiki  reference  right-wing  power  government  leviathan  cynicism-idealism  hari-seldon  technocracy  utopia-dystopia 
july 2017 by nhaliday
Young Men Are Playing Video Games Instead of Getting Jobs. That's OK. (For Now.) - Reason.com
https://www.dropbox.com/s/al533ecu82w29y1/BusinessCycleFallout.pdf
https://twitter.com/MarkKoyama/status/881893997706399744
This is like a reversal of the industrious revolution studied in my JEBO paper: new consumption technologies are money cheap but time pricey
http://www.nber.org/papers/w23552
https://www.1843magazine.com/features/escape-to-another-world
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13723996
http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/07/what-are-young-men-doing.html
https://www.firstthings.com/blogs/firstthoughts/2016/08/americas-lost-boys

http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/work-becomes-optional/
participation has changed along an understudied margin of labor supply. I find that “in-and-outs”—men who temporarily leave the labor force—represent a growing fraction of prime age men across multiple data sources and are responsible for roughly one third of the decline in the participation rate since 1977. In-and-outs take short, infrequent breaks out of the labor force in between jobs, but they are otherwise continuously attached to the labor force. Leading explanations for the growing share of permanent labor force dropouts, such as disability, do not apply to in-and-outs. Instead, reduced-form evidence and a structural model of household labor supply both indicate that the rise of in-and-outs reflects a shift in labor supply, largely due to the increasing earnings of men’s partners and the growth of men living with their parents.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen. My thoughts:

1. When we think of labor force participation declining, we think of, say, John Smith, deciding to never work again. What this paper is saying is that the statistics reflect something different. One month Smith takes a break, then next month he gets a job and Tom Jones takes a break.

2. I think we have always had a large number of workers who are not fully employed year round. That is, there have always been a lot of workers who take breaks between jobs. This is common in construction work, for example.

3. I don’t know if this matters for the phenomenon at hand, but we used to have inventory recessions. In those cases, workers would be out of a job for a while, but they would still be in the labor force, because they were waiting to be recalled by the firm that had laid them off.

4. It seems to me that this is an important paper. Re-read the last sentence in the quoted excerpt.

Job outlook growing worse for young American men: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/opinion/contributors/2018/01/02/job-outlook-growing-worse-young-american-men-opinion/996922001/
As one might imagine, the absence of a job, quality education, or spouse has not bred otherwise productive citizens. Multiple studies have found that young men have replaced what would otherwise be working hours with leisure time at a near 1-1 ratio. Erik Hurst, an economist at the University of Chicago, found that young men spent a startling 75 percent of this leisure time playing video games, with many spending more than 30 hours a week gaming and over 5 million Americans spending more than 45 hours per week.

Higher suicide rates, violent crime, and drug addiction among young men have followed. Suicide rates in the United States are at a 30-year high, with men more than three and a half times more likely to take their own lives than women. Around the United States, violent crimes, homicide in particular, has increased in two-thirds of American cities, with overwhelming young male perpetrators driving the increase. A 2015 Brookings Institute study estimated that nearly half of working-age American men who are out of the labor force are using painkillers, daily.

These problems have been “invisible” for too long.

As video games get better, young men work less and play more: http://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2017/article/video-games-get-better-young-men-work-less-and-play-more

Why Are Prime-Age Men Vanishing from the Labor Force?: https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/econrev/econrevarchive/2018/1q18tuzemen.pdf

Prime-Age Men May Never Return to U.S. Workforce, Fed Paper Says: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/prime-age-men-may-never-return-to-u-s-workforce-fed-paper-says
news  org:mag  rhetoric  trends  malaise  coming-apart  gender  labor  automation  inequality  games  populism  randy-ayndy  human-capital  education  econotariat  marginal-rev  male-variability  rot  dignity  multi  pdf  garett-jones  cycles  gedanken  twitter  social  commentary  economics  broad-econ  org:anglo  org:biz  attention  wonkish  stagnation  current-events  journos-pundits  hn  class  org:lite  society  :/  self-control  lol  macro  data  usa  letters  org:ngo  life-history  bootstraps  oscillation  dropbox  chart  cracker-econ  long-short-run  preprint  pseudoE  org:local  the-monster  org:edu  study  summary  white-paper  org:gov  article  essay  roots  explanans  polarization  winner-take-all  org:theos 
june 2017 by nhaliday
As American as Apple Pie: U.S. Female Converts to Islam - U.S. Studies Online
A recent book, Muslim Women in America: The Challenge of Islamic Identity Today states that, “Surveys conducted through the Council on American Islamic Relations conclude that some 20,000 people convert each year, with women outnumbering men approximately four to one.”[2] Research on U.S. converts to Islam, and women in particular, is crucial because Islam is the fastest growing religion in the world;[3] Muslim Americans are underrepresented and misrepresented in the media and perhaps even in polls; and the majority of U.S. converts to Islam are women.[4] This leaves many Americans questioning who these women are, what they have to say for themselves, and whether they are ‘real Americans’.

...

As to whether they have a home Muslim community, one woman answered, “No, I do not. There is too much cultural Islam, too much discrimination against women, and too many arrogant men.” Yet another who self-identified as gay and gender non-conforming stated that, “The sense of isolation is chilling and physically painful.” There are numerous internal challenges facing the American Muslim community, but by a large margin, the women participating in the survey see patriarchy, ethnocentrism, racism, and lack of cultural assimilation by many Muslim immigrants as primary obstacles to their sense of belonging as Muslims of American heritage.

https://twitter.com/_prophetissa/status/873647843927609344
trends  gender  religion  islam  rot  multi  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  demographics  left-wing  lol  :/  race  ethnocentrism  assimilation  diversity  usa  sociology  westminster 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Suspicious Banana on Twitter: ""platonic forms" seem more sinister when you realize that integers were reaching down into his head and giving him city planning advice https://t.co/4qaTdwOlry"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5040_(number)
Plato mentions in his Laws that 5040 is a convenient number to use for dividing many things (including both the citizens and the land of a state) into lesser parts. He remarks that this number can be divided by all the (natural) numbers from 1 to 12 with the single exception of 11 (however, it is not the smallest number to have this property; 2520 is). He rectifies this "defect" by suggesting that two families could be subtracted from the citizen body to produce the number 5038, which is divisible by 11. Plato also took notice of the fact that 5040 can be divided by 12 twice over. Indeed, Plato's repeated insistence on the use of 5040 for various state purposes is so evident that it is written, "Plato, writing under Pythagorean influences, seems really to have supposed that the well-being of the city depended almost as much on the number 5040 as on justice and moderation."[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plato%27s_number
"Now for divine begettings there is a period comprehended by a perfect number, and for mortal by the first in which augmentations dominating and dominated when they have attained to three distances and four limits of the assimilating and the dissimilating, the waxing and the waning, render all things conversable and commensurable [546c] with one another, whereof a basal four-thirds wedded to the pempad yields two harmonies at the third augmentation, the one the product of equal factors taken one hundred times, the other of equal length one way but oblong,-one dimension of a hundred numbers determined by the rational diameters of the pempad lacking one in each case, or of the irrational lacking two; the other dimension of a hundred cubes of the triad. And this entire geometrical number is determinative of this thing, of better and inferior births."[3]

Shortly after Plato's time his meaning apparently did not cause puzzlement as Aristotle's casual remark attests.[6] Half a millennium later, however, it was an enigma for the Neoplatonists, who had a somewhat mystic penchant and wrote frequently about it, proposing geometrical and numerical interpretations. Next, for nearly a thousand years, Plato's texts disappeared and it is only in the Renaissance that the enigma briefly resurfaced. During the 19th century, when classical scholars restored original texts, the problem reappeared. Schleiermacher interrupted his edition of Plato for a decade while attempting to make sense of the paragraph. Victor Cousin inserted a note that it has to be skipped in his French translation of Plato's works. In the early 20th century, scholarly findings suggested a Babylonian origin for the topic.[7]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagoreanism
https://www.jstor.org/stable/638781

Socrates: Surely we agree nothing more virtuous than sacrificing each newborn infant while reciting the factors of 39,916,800?

Turgidas: Uh

different but interesting: https://aeon.co/essays/can-we-hope-to-understand-how-the-greeks-saw-their-world
Another explanation for the apparent oddness of Greek perception came from the eminent politician and Hellenist William Gladstone, who devoted a chapter of his Studies on Homer and the Homeric Age (1858) to ‘perceptions and use of colour’. He too noticed the vagueness of the green and blue designations in Homer, as well as the absence of words covering the centre of the ‘blue’ area. Where Gladstone differed was in taking as normative the Newtonian list of colours (red, orange, yellow, green, blue, indigo, violet). He interpreted the Greeks’ supposed linguistic poverty as deriving from an imperfect discrimination of prismatic colours. The visual organ of the ancients was still in its infancy, hence their strong sensitivity to light rather than hue, and the related inability to clearly distinguish one hue from another. This argument fit well with the post-Darwinian climate of the late 19th century, and came to be widely believed. Indeed, it prompted Nietzsche’s own judgment, and led to a series of investigations that sought to prove that the Greek chromatic categories do not fit in with modern taxonomies.

Today, no one thinks that there has been a stage in the history of humanity when some colours were ‘not yet’ being perceived. But thanks to our modern ‘anthropological gaze’ it is accepted that every culture has its own way of naming and categorising colours. This is not due to varying anatomical structures of the human eye, but to the fact that different ocular areas are stimulated, which triggers different emotional responses, all according to different cultural contexts.
postrat  carcinisation  twitter  social  discussion  lol  hmm  :/  history  iron-age  mediterranean  the-classics  cocktail  trivia  quantitative-qualitative  mystic  simler  weird  multi  wiki  👽  dennett  article  philosophy  alien-character  news  org:mag  org:popup  literature  quotes  poetry  concrete  big-peeps  nietzschean  early-modern  europe  germanic  visuo  language  foreign-lang  embodied  oceans  h2o  measurement  fluid  forms-instances  westminster  lexical 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Buchanan: How Long Can We Sustain This? | The Daily Caller
“Wheel And Fight”—Pat Buchanan’s Nixon Book Provides Road Map For Trump: http://www.vdare.com/articles/wheel-and-fight-pat-buchanans-nixon-book-provides-road-map-for-trump
After The Anti-Trump Coup, What Then?: http://www.vdare.com/articles/pat-buchanan-after-the-anti-trump-coup-what-then
https://twitter.com/avermeule/status/895711695192174602
Best real example of (1) an enduring polity composed of (2) large blocs (3) fundamentally at odds over ideological and cultural premises?
United In Tragedy—But For How Long?: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/united-in-tragedy-but-for-how-long/

Unlike Nixon, Trump Will Not Go Quietly: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/buchanan/unlike-nixon-trump-will-not-go-quietly/

Mueller obtains "tens of thousands” of Trump transition emails: https://www.axios.com/scoop-mueller-obtains-tens-of-thousands-of-trump-transition-emails-1513456551-428f0b7a-b50e-4d9e-8bc4-9869f93c2845.html
https://act.moveon.org/event/mueller-firing-rapid-response-events/search/

https://twitter.com/netouyo_/status/942187038958333952
https://archive.is/4oKKB
I suspect there is gonna be a big finale for Trump-Mueller before the end of the year, shit goin down

https://twitter.com/netouyo_/status/942201841869312005
https://archive.is/GQKmD
who needs laws/due process when daddy Mueller is gonna save us from the evil Russians?
news  org:lite  right-wing  rhetoric  comparison  trump  nascent-state  politics  culture-war  government  current-events  interview  policy  migration  migrant-crisis  europe  EU  rot  paleocon  identity-politics  usa  multi  gnon  history  mostly-modern  crooked  anomie  managerial-state  cold-war  analogy  links  drama  leaks  media  propaganda  democracy  vampire-squid  twitter  social  discussion  revolution  journos-pundits  elite  madisonian  polarization  org:mag  diversity  putnam-like  tribalism  us-them  populism  russia  investigative-journo  org:ngo  🐸  backup  :/  axioms  law 
may 2017 by nhaliday
The wheel of history turns to the gods - Gene Expression
The inevitable rise of Amish machines: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2011/01/the-inevitable-rise-of-amish-machines/
The authors make a nod to the idea that religion may have spread through group selection: but this is also an argument for why very fertile and religious groups such as the Amish and Roma will reach their “limits to growth.” If they persist in their atypical lifestyles their host societies will simply collapse. Or at least restructure in a fashion to make extremely high endogenous growth of minorities impossible.
gnxp  scitariat  books  review  sociology  culture  society  demographics  fertility  religion  demographic-transition  theos  new-religion  israel  MENA  judaism  europe  islam  gallic  britain  nordic  poll  values  morality  gender  sexuality  anthropology  org:sci  rot  the-bones  eric-kaufmann  history  early-modern  usa  elite  flux-stasis  modernity  multi  context  cycles  study  summary  commentary  critique  prediction  trends  pop-structure  free-riding  subculture  hetero-advantage  russia  population  comparison  time-series  :/ 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Reversal of the Gender Gap in Education, Motherhood, and Women as Main Earners in Europe | European Sociological Review | Oxford Academic
The Reversal of the Gender Gap in Education and
Female Breadwinners in Europe: http://www.familiesandsocieties.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/WP26KlesmentVanBavel.pdf

A Record Share of Men Are “Marrying Up” Educationally: https://ifstudies.org/blog/a-record-share-of-men-are-marrying-up-educationally
Even though overall, wives have more education than their spouses today, men are still the primary provider in a majority of marriages. In 2015, more than 7-in-10 married men (73%) had a higher income than their spouse, although the share was down from 91% in 1960. During the same period, the share of married women who out-earned their spouses rose from 6% to 25%.

A Gender Reversal On Career Aspirations: http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/04/19/a-gender-reversal-on-career-aspirations/
study  sociology  wonkish  demographics  europe  data  education  compensation  money  class  social-structure  gender  labor  trends  science-anxiety  life-history  dysgenics  social-norms  multi  pdf  rot  assortative-mating  news  org:ngo  time-series  dignity  poll  career  hmm  org:data  values  :/  current-events  direction  chart 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Educational Romanticism & Economic Development | pseudoerasmus
https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/852339296358940672
deleeted

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/943238170312929280
https://archive.is/p5hRA

Did Nations that Boosted Education Grow Faster?: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/did_nations_tha.html
On average, no relationship. The trendline points down slightly, but for the time being let's just call it a draw. It's a well-known fact that countries that started the 1960's with high education levels grew faster (example), but this graph is about something different. This graph shows that countries that increased their education levels did not grow faster.

Where has all the education gone?: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1016.2704&rep=rep1&type=pdf

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/948052794681966593
https://archive.is/kjxqp

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/950952412503822337
https://archive.is/3YPic

https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/862961420065001472
http://hanushek.stanford.edu/publications/schooling-educational-achievement-and-latin-american-growth-puzzle

The Case Against Education: What's Taking So Long, Bryan Caplan: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/03/the_case_agains_9.html

The World Might Be Better Off Without College for Everyone: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/01/whats-college-good-for/546590/
Students don't seem to be getting much out of higher education.
- Bryan Caplan

College: Capital or Signal?: http://www.economicmanblog.com/2017/02/25/college-capital-or-signal/
After his review of the literature, Caplan concludes that roughly 80% of the earnings effect from college comes from signalling, with only 20% the result of skill building. Put this together with his earlier observations about the private returns to college education, along with its exploding cost, and Caplan thinks that the social returns are negative. The policy implications of this will come as very bitter medicine for friends of Bernie Sanders.

Doubting the Null Hypothesis: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/doubting-the-null-hypothesis/

Is higher education/college in the US more about skill-building or about signaling?: https://www.quora.com/Is-higher-education-college-in-the-US-more-about-skill-building-or-about-signaling
ballpark: 50% signaling, 30% selection, 20% addition to human capital
more signaling in art history, more human capital in engineering, more selection in philosophy

Econ Duel! Is Education Signaling or Skill Building?: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/03/econ-duel-is-education-signaling-or-skill-building.html
Marginal Revolution University has a brand new feature, Econ Duel! Our first Econ Duel features Tyler and me debating the question, Is education more about signaling or skill building?

Against Tulip Subsidies: https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/06/06/against-tulip-subsidies/

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/01/read-the-case-against-education.html

https://nintil.com/2018/02/05/notes-on-the-case-against-education/

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018-02-19-0000/bryan-caplan-case-against-education-review

https://spottedtoad.wordpress.com/2018/02/12/the-case-against-education/
Most American public school kids are low-income; about half are non-white; most are fairly low skilled academically. For most American kids, the majority of the waking hours they spend not engaged with electronic media are at school; the majority of their in-person relationships are at school; the most important relationships they have with an adult who is not their parent is with their teacher. For their parents, the most important in-person source of community is also their kids’ school. Young people need adult mirrors, models, mentors, and in an earlier era these might have been provided by extended families, but in our own era this all falls upon schools.

Caplan gestures towards work and earlier labor force participation as alternatives to school for many if not all kids. And I empathize: the years that I would point to as making me who I am were ones where I was working, not studying. But they were years spent working in schools, as a teacher or assistant. If schools did not exist, is there an alternative that we genuinely believe would arise to draw young people into the life of their community?

...

It is not an accident that the state that spends the least on education is Utah, where the LDS church can take up some of the slack for schools, while next door Wyoming spends almost the most of any state at $16,000 per student. Education is now the one surviving binding principle of the society as a whole, the one black box everyone will agree to, and so while you can press for less subsidization of education by government, and for privatization of costs, as Caplan does, there’s really nothing people can substitute for it. This is partially about signaling, sure, but it’s also because outside of schools and a few religious enclaves our society is but a darkling plain beset by winds.

This doesn’t mean that we should leave Caplan’s critique on the shelf. Much of education is focused on an insane, zero-sum race for finite rewards. Much of schooling does push kids, parents, schools, and school systems towards a solution ad absurdum, where anything less than 100 percent of kids headed to a doctorate and the big coding job in the sky is a sign of failure of everyone concerned.

But let’s approach this with an eye towards the limits of the possible and the reality of diminishing returns.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/01/27/poison-ivy-halls/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/01/27/poison-ivy-halls/#comment-101293
The real reason the left would support Moander: the usual reason. because he’s an enemy.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/01/bright-college-days-part-i/
I have a problem in thinking about education, since my preferences and personal educational experience are atypical, so I can’t just gut it out. On the other hand, knowing that puts me ahead of a lot of people that seem convinced that all real people, including all Arab cabdrivers, think and feel just as they do.

One important fact, relevant to this review. I don’t like Caplan. I think he doesn’t understand – can’t understand – human nature, and although that sometimes confers a different and interesting perspective, it’s not a royal road to truth. Nor would I want to share a foxhole with him: I don’t trust him. So if I say that I agree with some parts of this book, you should believe me.

...

Caplan doesn’t talk about possible ways of improving knowledge acquisition and retention. Maybe he thinks that’s impossible, and he may be right, at least within a conventional universe of possibilities. That’s a bit outside of his thesis, anyhow. Me it interests.

He dismisses objections from educational psychologists who claim that studying a subject improves you in subtle ways even after you forget all of it. I too find that hard to believe. On the other hand, it looks to me as if poorly-digested fragments of information picked up in college have some effect on public policy later in life: it is no coincidence that most prominent people in public life (at a given moment) share a lot of the same ideas. People are vaguely remembering the same crap from the same sources, or related sources. It’s correlated crap, which has a much stronger effect than random crap.

These widespread new ideas are usually wrong. They come from somewhere – in part, from higher education. Along this line, Caplan thinks that college has only a weak ideological effect on students. I don’t believe he is correct. In part, this is because most people use a shifting standard: what’s liberal or conservative gets redefined over time. At any given time a population is roughly half left and half right – but the content of those labels changes a lot. There’s a shift.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/01/bright-college-days-part-i/#comment-101492
I put it this way, a while ago: “When you think about it, falsehoods, stupid crap, make the best group identifiers, because anyone might agree with you when you’re obviously right. Signing up to clear nonsense is a better test of group loyalty. A true friend is with you when you’re wrong. Ideally, not just wrong, but barking mad, rolling around in your own vomit wrong.”
--
You just explained the Credo quia absurdum doctrine. I always wondered if it was nonsense. It is not.
--
Someone on twitter caught it first – got all the way to “sliding down the razor blade of life”. Which I explained is now called “transitioning”

What Catholics believe: https://theweek.com/articles/781925/what-catholics-believe
We believe all of these things, fantastical as they may sound, and we believe them for what we consider good reasons, well attested by history, consistent with the most exacting standards of logic. We will profess them in this place of wrath and tears until the extraordinary event referenced above, for which men and women have hoped and prayed for nearly 2,000 years, comes to pass.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/05/bright-college-days-part-ii/
According to Caplan, employers are looking for conformity, conscientiousness, and intelligence. They use completion of high school, or completion of college as a sign of conformity and conscientiousness. College certainly looks as if it’s mostly signaling, and it’s hugely expensive signaling, in terms of college costs and foregone earnings.

But inserting conformity into the merit function is tricky: things become important signals… because they’re important signals. Otherwise useful actions are contraindicated because they’re “not done”. For example, test scores convey useful information. They could help show that an applicant is smart even though he attended a mediocre school – the same role they play in college admissions. But employers seldom request test scores, and although applicants may provide them, few do. Caplan says ” The word on the street… [more]
econotariat  pseudoE  broad-econ  economics  econometrics  growth-econ  education  human-capital  labor  correlation  null-result  world  developing-world  commentary  spearhead  garett-jones  twitter  social  pic  discussion  econ-metrics  rindermann-thompson  causation  endo-exo  biodet  data  chart  knowledge  article  wealth-of-nations  latin-america  study  path-dependence  divergence  🎩  curvature  microfoundations  multi  convexity-curvature  nonlinearity  hanushek  volo-avolo  endogenous-exogenous  backup  pdf  people  policy  monetary-fiscal  wonkish  cracker-econ  news  org:mag  local-global  higher-ed  impetus  signaling  rhetoric  contrarianism  domestication  propaganda  ratty  hanson  books  review  recommendations  distribution  externalities  cost-benefit  summary  natural-experiment  critique  rent-seeking  mobility  supply-demand  intervention  shift  social-choice  government  incentives  interests  q-n-a  street-fighting  objektbuch  X-not-about-Y  marginal-rev  c:***  qra  info-econ  info-dynamics  org:econlib  yvain  ssc  politics  medicine  stories 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Assessing the calorific significance of episodes of human cannibalism in the Palaeolithic : Scientific Reports
Results show that humans have a comparable nutritional value to those faunal species that match our typical body weight, but significantly lower than a range of fauna often found in association with anthropogenically modified hominin remains. This could suggest that the motivations behind hominin anthropophagy may not have been purely nutritionally motivated. It is proposed here that the comparatively low nutritional value of hominin cannibalism episodes support more socially or culturally driven narratives in the interpretation of Palaeolithic cannibalism.

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep44707/tables/1
study  org:nat  anthropology  sapiens  history  antiquity  food  death  horror  nutrition  metabolic  embodied  :/  phys-energy  multi  data  objektbuch  ethnography  ritual  nihil  prepping 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Is America smart enough? A Q&A with Garett Jones on IQ and the 'Hive Mind' - AEI | Pethokoukis Blog » AEIdeas
hmmm, shit:
Well, if we’re looking at the very recent trends over the last couple of decades, there is not much evidence that there’s been a bigger return to IQ than there used to be. I think there’s moderate evidence that there’s actually an increase in return to personality-type skills.

evidence: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:d70bdc68a51c

One of my colleagues one said offhand a line that I think others have said, which is that 90% of success is staying off the Internet. And I think there’s something to this idea that the return to personality-type measures is probably a lot higher than it used to be. Agreeableness, conscientiousness, especially in certain settings. I’ve looked at the normal statistical results and they don’t find an increase in return to IQ in recent decades. But there’s a couple of studies out there that do find an increase in returns to what they call non-cognitive skills.

I think personality might be mattering more. If the robots are going to take some jobs, they’ll probably be taking a lot of brainy type jobs. But they’re going to be a little behind the times when it comes to personality. And a lot of in-person services are going to depend on personality traits.

more:
So Google and its many spinoffs replace a lot of the need for crystallized intelligence. But the need for fluid intelligence is going to be with us for quite some time. The ability to look at a new, novel situation and figure out what’s going on here.

Some pro-IQ supporters, especially on the Internet, tend to think that there’s this some kind of cutoff where above a certain level IQ matters a lot. Below it, it doesn’t matter very much. And I just don’t find evidence of that. I think that there’s a reason why the market pays for IQ, for higher IQ across the range of the scores. It’s because it’s always good to have somebody around who can just look at an ambiguous situation and figure out what’s going on.

another neat comment:
I think the obsession with years of education really needs to end. And there should be an obsession with broad based test scores. If people don’t want to use IQ scores, that’s fine. But they should at least be looking at broad based test scores, things like the NAEPs, other test scores that the US government is quite happy to report on the Department of Education’s website. These should be the measures we look at. We should be looking a lot less at years of education.
org:ngo  interview  spearhead  garett-jones  hive-mind  human-capital  iq  economics  growth-econ  psychology  cog-psych  psychometrics  causation  time-preference  patience  coordination  acemoglu  usa  anglo  anglosphere  sinosphere  the-great-west-whale  trends  personality  discipline  internet  the-monster  attention  hmm  :/  psych-architecture  critique  asia  migration  right-wing  policy  education  automation  wonkish  science-anxiety  stylized-facts  s:*  broad-econ  big-peeps  rindermann-thompson  chart  wealth-of-nations  prudence  microfoundations  regularizer  realness  s-factor  multi 
march 2017 by nhaliday
No easy answers: why left-wing economics is not the answer to right-wing populism - Vox
hence why Cato loves mass migration
https://medium.com/@MattBruenig/liberals-and-diversity-85c169580d14
jfc, by the book: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORWM0ukT-Xw
"If we broke up the big banks tomorrow would that end racism? Would that end sexism? Would that end discrimination against the LGBT community? Would that make people feel more welcoming to immigrants overnight?"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/13/clinton-in-nevada-not-everything-is-about-an-economic-theory/

The End of Liberalism - Samuel Bowles: https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/06/19/the-end-liberalism/GLVtC7fExhFPwhOx31fXrN/story.html
The progressive's immigration dilemma: https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/international/the-progressives-immigration-dilemma
Poor people's lives are made enormously better off by moving from poor countries to rich countries. Thanks to remittances, migrants also may have a significant positive impact on their home countries. For any progressive who wants to improve human welfare, facilitating more immigration from poor to rich countries should be an overriding priority.

Not only does a big welfare state reduce the number of immigrants that are politically accepted, a heavily regulated labour market seems to be associated with immigrants having a worse impact on natives. Even policies that seem like they would be good for Britons might still do much more harm than good if they make Britons less willing to accept higher levels of immigration.

This is a serious dilemma for any progressive who wants all humans to live good lives, not just ones of the same race or nationality. It means that these political concerns alone may demand a low regulation, low redistribution state.

fucking traitors

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/882982045714194433
https://archive.is/o1gUM
Essential liberal values:
You: My countrymen get to speak, think, commerce, associate freely.
Vox: Here are some new countrymen. Enjoy!
news  org:data  org:lite  politics  polisci  wonkish  contrarianism  rhetoric  left-wing  populism  europe  usa  comparison  race  migrant-crisis  economics  redistribution  britain  government  policy  culture-war  westminster  data  counterfactual  values  tactics  coalitions  diversity  putnam-like  tradeoffs  sociology  stylized-facts  current-events  nationalism-globalism  social-capital  managerial-state  madisonian  chart  vampire-squid  welfare-state  identity-politics  class-warfare  microfoundations  multi  org:med  ideology  trump  commentary  video  social  clinton  nl-and-so-can-you  hypocrisy  correlation  crooked  the-bones  zeitgeist  rot  2016-election  postmortem  alesina  org:rec  econotariat  essay  albion  migration  clown-world  flexibility  labor  intervention  links  patho-altruism  article  org:ngo  org:anglo  us-them  kumbaya-kult  twitter  aphorism  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  lol  :/  realness  backup  public-goodish  org:local 
march 2017 by nhaliday
The Trump White House is already cooking the books - The Washington Post
As the Wall Street Journal first reported (and as I’ve independently confirmed through my own sources), the Trump transition team instead ordered CEA staffers to predict sustained economic growth of 3 to 3.5 percent. The staffers were then directed to backfill all the other numbers in their models to produce these growth rates.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/08/17/national-parks-banned-bottled-water-to-ease-pollution-trump-just-sided-with-the-lobby-that-fought-it/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/18/us/politics/trump-impedes-consumer-lawsuits-against-nursing-homes-deregulation.html

Donald Trump is rekindling one of his favorite conspiracy theories: Vaccine safety: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/10/donald-trump-is-rekindling-one-of-his-favorite-conspiracy-theories-vaccine-safety/
news  org:rec  politics  trump  policy  anomie  rhetoric  critique  government  epistemic  descriptive  crooked  current-events  corruption  propaganda  info-dynamics  madisonian  multi  environment  regulation  rent-seeking  aging  age-generation  :/ 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Our Demographic Decline - The Daily Beast
https://twitter.com/ThomasHCrown/status/880926029027696640
http://quillette.com/2017/02/02/if-youre-reading-this-essay-you-should-probably-have-more-children/
https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/898520772632694785
https://archive.is/AoVcV
Hypothesis: to slow demographic/cultural transformation,no ideology will make any difference,only rich/powerful people having huge families.
You can keep one or two kids walled off from a decaying society,if you have enough money and connections. You can't do that with eight kids.
...
I don't worship Elon Musk,but it seems nonaccidental that only plutocrat with any kind of vital or inspiring vision of the future has 5 kids

Demographics, Robots, and AI | Elon Musk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uA4ydDUsgJU
- TFRs about 50% of replacement throughout much of Europe. what's that gonna do to society?
- like the comment about people needing to develop a sense of duty to reproduce.

I think I think demographics is is a real issue where people are not having kids in a lot of countries and very often they'll say I'll solve it with immigration. Immigration from where?! If...Europe has an average of many plots...Europe have an average of of a 50 or six...you know they're only at fifty or sixty percent of what's needed for replacement or China for that matter they're at half replacement rate where exactly are we going to find six hundred million people to replace the ones that were never born. I think people are going to have to regard to some degree than the notion of having kids as almost a social duty. Within reason, I mean just if you can and you're so inclined you should, you should. You know it's like otherwise civilization will just die literally.

https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/869959152898117634
that's true of older generation of, eg, NYT writers but I think this new crop will just have fewer kids, be less hypocritical, more terrible

https://twitter.com/jeffgiesea/status/997126388086951937
https://archive.fo/7fk4a
Many of the smartest people I know are quietly giving up on America. They don't see viable future. Very troubling.
They are choosing "exit" instead of voice. Abandoning politics. This takes many forms:
>denialism - tuning it out; moving to the country or gated community
>localism - rebuilding at local levels
>futurism - embracing tech to build the future
>nihilism - not voting; drugs
People point to American resilience throughout history. They view this period of time as different for a variety of reasons: debt, demographics, cultural decline, destructive technology, etc. Late-stage empire decline.

that netouyo__ comment (deleeted) about 'The Sopranos' and how the subtext was that we're at the end of America, not the beginning
news  demographics  fertility  world  developing-world  usa  economics  stylized-facts  time-preference  individualism-collectivism  wonkish  org:lite  society  trends  douthatish  biophysical-econ  malaise  demographic-transition  current-events  population  econotariat  chart  nihil  zeitgeist  rot  journos-pundits  modernity  multi  twitter  social  discussion  rant  rhetoric  :/  healthcare  right-wing  unaffiliated  org:mag  org:popup  dysgenics  musk  barons  ratty  hypocrisy  media  video  presentation  interview  europe  the-great-west-whale  automation  prediction  legacy  duty  intervention  migration  china  asia  civilization  incentives  interests  self-interest  death  gibbon  sulla  prepping  the-watchers  noblesse-oblige  status  propaganda  backup  politics  stagnation  culture  culture-war  sv  tech  exit-voice  local-global  government  drugs  debt  race  technology  decentralized  elite  the-bones  techtariat  tv  gnon  🐸  venture  pessimism 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Origins of the brain networks for advanced mathematics in expert mathematicians
The origins of human abilities for mathematics are debated: Some theories suggest that they are founded upon evolutionarily ancient brain circuits for number and space and others that they are grounded in language competence. To evaluate what brain systems underlie higher mathematics, we scanned professional mathematicians and mathematically naive subjects of equal academic standing as they evaluated the truth of advanced mathematical and nonmathematical statements. In professional mathematicians only, mathematical statements, whether in algebra, analysis, topology or geometry, activated a reproducible set of bilateral frontal, Intraparietal, and ventrolateral temporal regions. Crucially, these activations spared areas related to language and to general-knowledge semantics. Rather, mathematical judgments were related to an amplification of brain activity at sites that are activated by numbers and formulas in nonmathematicians, with a corresponding reduction in nearby face responses. The evidence suggests that high-level mathematical expertise and basic number sense share common roots in a nonlinguistic brain circuit.
pdf  study  psychology  cog-psych  neuro  language  math  learning  eden  meta:math  intelligence  visuo  spatial  visual-understanding  brain-scan  neuro-nitgrit  neurons  quantitative-qualitative  psych-architecture  🌞  retrofit  :/ 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Information Processing: Greenspan now agrees with Soros; Galbraith interview and a calculation
Easy Question: What growth rate advantage (additional GDP growth rate per annum) would savage, unfettered markets need to generate to justify these occasional disasters?

Answer: an additional 0.1 percent annual GDP growth would be more than enough. That is, an unregulated economy whose growth rate was 0.1 percent higher would, even after paying for each 20 year crisis, be richer than the heavily regulated comparator which avoided the crises but had a lower growth rate.

Hard Question: would additional regulation decrease economic growth rates by that amount or more?

Unless you think you can evaluate the relative GDP growth effects of two different policy regimes with accuracy of better than 0.1 percent, then the intellectually honest answer to the policy question is: I don't know. No shouting, no shaking your fist, no lecturing other people, no writing op eds, just I don't know. Correct the things that are obviously stupid, but don't overstate your confidence level about additional policy changes.

(Note I'm aware that distributional issues are also important. In the most recent era gains went mostly to a small number of top earners whereas the cost of the bailout will be spread over the whole tax base.)

http://voxeu.org/article/endogenous-growth-and-lack-recovery-global-crisis
Wall St. lending to Main St. even as many decry Dodd-Frank: https://apnews.com/0e4ee980a46549908733afb2f6824def/wall-st-lending-main-st-even-many-decry-dodd-frank
hsu  scitariat  finance  investing  economics  money  commentary  links  tradeoffs  regulation  econ-metrics  complex-systems  cycles  risk  market-failure  cost-benefit  multi  org:ngo  econotariat  wonkish  trends  technology  stagnation  econ-productivity  growth-econ  data  article  chart  macro  news  trump  politics  policy  :/  current-events  cjones-like  events 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Shtetl-Optimized » Blog Archive » First they came for the Iranians
pretty damn shite situation
edit: Scott Aaronson got into a lengthy argument w/ Curtis Yarvin (Boldmug), lmao

Ratchets Within Ratchets: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/02/ratchets-within-ratchets.html
https://twitter.com/turrible_tao/status/914583517157347328
https://archive.is/aBs6i
i remember on I think scott aaronsons blog? after trump won in the comment section mm was arguing w/ ppl and his most bombastic point was
if you dropped 19th century america in the ocean next to us and gave them wikipedia they would conquer us within the decade
which I remember being hilarious because it was p literally true
tcstariat  aaronson  academia  grad-school  policy  migration  trump  :/  yarvin  debate  poast  MENA  nibble  org:bleg  history  politics  polisci  culture-war  gnon  ideology  current-events  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  identity-politics  multi  hsu  scitariat  commentary  links  quotes  dysgenics  straussian  twitter  social  discussion  backup  aphorism  gedanken  time  early-modern  usa  anglosphere  reflection 
january 2017 by nhaliday
The Predictive Validity of Ideal Partner Preferences: A Review and Meta-Analysis
[A] new meta-analysis spanning the attraction and relationships literatures (k=97) revealed that physical attractiveness predicted romantic evaluations with a moderate-to-strong effect size (r = ~.40) for both sexes, and earning prospects predicted romantic evaluations with a small effect size (r = ~.10) for both sexes. Sex differences in the correlations were small (r_difference = .03) and uniformly nonsignificant.

Mating markets and bargaining hands: Mate preferences for attractiveness and resources in two national U.S. studies: http://www.sciencedirect.com.sci-hub.tw/science/article/pii/S0191886915005462
https://twitter.com/nmgrm/status/886223905261748224

Assessing Female Mate Preferences: Answers to Ten Common Criticisms of Evolutionary Psychology: https://areomagazine.com/2017/08/09/assessing-female-mate-preferences-answers-to-ten-common-criticisms-of-evolutionary-psychology/

How Important is Physical Attractiveness in the Marriage Market: http://www.reis.cis.es/REIS/PDF/REIS_159_07_ENGLISH1499424514902.pdf
For men, the results show that being unattractive decreases the likelihood of finding a partner, of finding a partner with a university degree, and of finding a partner with a higher educational level. For women, physical attractiveness does not affect the likelihood of any of those events occurring. The study has also found out that physical attractiveness has more of an influence on people with a working class background to find a partner with higher educational attainment. These results are unexpected and pose a challenge to the theory of erotic capital.
pdf  study  meta-analysis  psychology  social-psych  evopsych  gender  values  sex  🐝  compensation  science-anxiety  gender-diff  chart  solid-study  multi  piracy  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  🐸  embodied  money  status  null-result  data  poll  properties  survey  summary  scitariat  expert  org:mag  news  sociology  anthropology  class  human-capital  :/  attaq  stylized-facts  hmm  expert-experience  theory-of-mind  get-fit 
january 2017 by nhaliday
The Rise and Fall of the Bourgeois Era – spottedtoad
That is, the Bourgeois Era allowed and required men (and then women) to work within the market system to support their families, but a changing technology of production means we are more in need of consumers than producers now. The Bourgeois Era benefited from people who were in some ways “bred for capitalism,” by the combination of Malthusian circumstances and strong states that punished violence with violence and starved the children of those who couldn’t make a living with market labor. But the majority of the people on the planet did not go through that same, centuries-long process, which was only partially effective in the places it operated in any case.

Just in time, however, the “need” for bourgeois lives has dissipated.
trends  culture  society  data  anomie  anthropology  civilization  spock  ratty  insight  innovation  unaffiliated  hmm  🤖  c:*  2016  optimate  consumerism  supply-demand  fertility  wonkish  labor  winner-take-all  malthus  migration  redistribution  technocracy  nl-and-so-can-you  capitalism  the-great-west-whale  biophysical-econ  managerial-state  malaise  sociology  westminster  current-events  nationalism-globalism  roots  civic  madisonian  chart  coming-apart  dignity  welfare-state  zeitgeist  rot  the-bones  kumbaya-kult  tradition  modernity  peace-violence  recent-selection  gregory-clark  spearhead  counter-revolution  nascent-state  :/  utopia-dystopia 
august 2016 by nhaliday
The Future of Genetic Enhancement is Not in the West | Quillette
https://qz.com/750908/the-future-of-genetic-enhancement-is-in-china-and-india/

If it becomes possible to safely genetically increase babies’ IQ, it will become inevitable: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/07/14/if-it-becomes-possible-to-safely-genetically-increase-babies-iq-it-will-become-inevitable/

Baby Genome Sequencing for Sale in China: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608086/baby-genome-sequencing-for-sale-in-china/
Chinese parents can now decode the genomes of their healthy newborns, revealing disease risks as well as the likelihood of physical traits like male-pattern baldness.
https://gnxp.nofe.me/2017/06/16/the-cultural-revolution-that-will-happen-in-china/
https://gnxp.nofe.me/2017/07/26/the-future-will-be-genetically-engineered/
http://www.nature.com/news/china-s-embrace-of-embryo-selection-raises-thorny-questions-1.22468
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/08/embryo-selection-in-china-nature.html

China launches massive genome research initiative: https://news.cgtn.com/news/7767544e34637a6333566d54/share_p.html

research ethics:
First results of CRISPR gene editing of normal embryos released: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2123973-first-results-of-crispr-gene-editing-of-normal-embryos-released/
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-32530334
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608350/first-human-embryos-edited-in-us/
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/07/first-human-embryos-edited-in-us-mit.html
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14912382
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature23305.html
caveats: https://ipscell.com/2017/08/4-reasons-mitalipov-paper-doesnt-herald-safe-crispr-human-genetic-modification/

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/first-crispr-human-clinical-trial-gets-a-green-light-from-the-u-s/
http://www.nature.com/news/crispr-gene-editing-tested-in-a-person-for-the-first-time-1.20988
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12960844
So this title is a bit misleading; something like, "cells edited with CRISPR injected into a person for the first time" would be better. While CRISPR is promising for topological treatments, that's not what happened here.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinese-scientists-to-pioneer-first-human-crispr-trial/
China sprints ahead in CRISPR therapy race: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/20
China, Unhampered by Rules, Races Ahead in Gene-Editing Trials: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-unhampered-by-rules-races-ahead-in-gene-editing-trials-1516562360
U.S. scientists helped devise the Crispr biotechnology tool. First to test it in humans are Chinese doctors
https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/955207026333929472
https://archive.is/lJ761

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/01/24/579925801/chinese-scientists-clone-monkeys-using-method-that-created-dolly-the-sheep
https://twitter.com/0xa59a2d/status/956344998626242560
https://archive.is/azH4S
https://twitter.com/AngloRemnant/status/956348983303114753
https://archive.is/RclJG
https://twitter.com/AngloRemnant/status/956352891287228416
https://archive.is/BfHuV

http://www.acsh.org/news/2017/03/07/did-gene-therapy-cure-sickle-cell-disease-10950

lol: http://www.theonion.com/infographic/pros-and-cons-gene-editing-56740

Japan set to allow gene editing in human embryos [ed.: (for research)]: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06847-7
Draft guidelines permit gene-editing tools for research into early human development.
futurism  prediction  enhancement  biotech  essay  china  asia  culture  poll  len:short  new-religion  accelerationism  letters  news  org:mag  org:popup  🌞  sinosphere  🔬  sanctity-degradation  morality  values  democracy  authoritarianism  genetics  CRISPR  scaling-up  orient  multi  org:lite  india  competition  speedometer  org:rec  right-wing  rhetoric  slippery-slope  iq  usa  incentives  technology  org:nat  org:sci  org:biz  trends  current-events  genomics  gnxp  scitariat  commentary  hsu  org:foreign  volo-avolo  regulation  coordination  cooperate-defect  moloch  popsci  announcement  politics  government  policy  science  ethics  :/  org:anglo  cancer  medicine  hn  tech  immune  sapiens  study  summary  bio  disease  critique  regularizer  accuracy  lol  comedy  hard-tech  skunkworks  twitter  social  backup  gnon  🐸  randy-ayndy  civil-liberty  FDA  duplication  left-wing  chart  abortion-contraception-embryo 
august 2016 by nhaliday
Middle East Media Research Institute - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://www.loonwatch.com/2012/07/sodomy-for-jihad-or-islamophobic-hoax/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomorrow%27s_Pioneers
Tomorrow's Pioneers (Arabic: رواد الغد‎‎ Ruwād al-Ghad; also The Pioneers of Tomorrow) is a children's program, broadcast on 2007–09 on the Palestinian Hamas-affiliated television station, Al-Aqsa TV (Arabic: مرئية الأقصى قناة الأقصى‎‎). The show features young host Saraa Barhoum and her co-host, a large costumed animal as they perform skits (or "scenes") and discuss life in Palestine in a talk show fashion with call-ins from children (typically of age 9–13 with some as young as 3).[2][3] Presented in a children's educational format similar to such shows as Sesame Street or Barney & Friends, Tomorrow's Pioneers is highly controversial as it contains antisemitism, Islamism, anti-Americanism, and other anti-Western themes.
Memri TV compilation debates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCvMMSTOl4Q
islam  tv  media  organization  wiki  lol  MENA  multi  stories  britain  gender  sex  sexuality  troll  :/  culture  video  memes(ew)  vulgar  social 
july 2016 by nhaliday
The Politically Incorrect Guide to Ending Poverty - The Atlantic
The case for colonialism: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01436597.2017.1369037
https://legalinsurrection.com/2017/09/third-world-quarterly-publishes-the-case-for-colonialism-leading-to-censorship-demands/amp/

The Case for Contrarianism: http://quillette.com/2017/10/10/the-case-for-contrarianism/
Another semester, another academic publishing scandal, complete with calls for penitence and punishment. This time the catalyst is “The Case for Colonialism,” a “Viewpoint” editorial in Third World Quarterly. In this essay, Bruce Gilley argued that “it is high time to question [the anti-colonial] orthodoxy. Western colonialism was, as a general rule, both objectively beneficial and subjectively legitimate in most of the places where it was found, using realistic measures of those concepts.” Gilley’s article has since been withdrawn due to “serious and credible threats of personal violence” made against the journal’s editor. This obviously troubling development should make us wonder: just what evil would this article have brought about if not withdrawn? The Streisand effect is in full display here. The article – detailed, abstruse, and not always beautifully written – has no doubt been far more widely read than it would have been without the controversy.

...

What’s worth emulating about a prediction market is that it turns the expression of unpopular beliefs into a low-risk, high-reward enterprise. In the real, social world, it is often very costly to dissent from a dominant view: friendships can be lost and careers ruined. But it is not costly at all to assent to a dominant view; on the contrary, conforming in this way is helpful and often necessary both socially and professionally.

Now, consider the situation of someone who believes, for instance, that the dominant view is just as likely to be false as it is true. Normal incentives push such a person to go along with the dominant view, and they may feel perfectly comfortable about it. But the incentives of a prediction market would push a person in the opposite manner. They would push a person, who believes the dominant view is actually a 50/50 proposition, to invest in the belief which has a higher reward – that is, the less popular viewpoint. The distribution of this market ends up more rational over time simply because the dominant view is not artificially inflated by people playing it safe.

Author of article on “the case for colonialism” withdraws it after death threats and social-media mobbing; academics are mostly silent: https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2017/10/12/author-of-article-on-the-case-for-colonialism-withdraws-it-after-death-threats-and-social-media-mobbing-colleagues-are-mostly-silent/
“Credible threats of personal violence” against editor prompt withdrawal of colonialism paper: http://retractionwatch.com/2017/10/09/credible-threats-personal-violence-editor-prompt-withdrawal-colonialism-paper/
How the hate mob tried to silence me: http://standpointmag.co.uk/node/7027/full
- Bruce Gilley

https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/907827993652989952
https://archive.is/CCXq3
This is where the "Case for Colonialism" paper goes wrong. Western states today couldn't recolonize an anthill. It's Singapore's job
I wouldn't put today's Western states in charge of anything important
skunkworks  labor  economics  macro  policy  government  foreign-policy  longform  urban  profile  world  developing-world  contrarianism  growth-econ  arbitrage  diogenes  news  nl-and-so-can-you  proposal  econotariat  paul-romer  🎩  org:mag  wonkish  technocracy  realpolitik  polisci  democracy  polis  egalitarianism-hierarchy  wealth-of-nations  antidemos  expansionism  exit-voice  conquest-empire  multi  study  essay  rhetoric  drama  academia  social-science  urban-rural  org:popup  letters  unaffiliated  left-wing  current-events  philosophy  westminster  truth  is-ought  meta:rhetoric  censorship  civil-liberty  history  early-modern  counterfactual  alt-inst  prediction-markets  paying-rent  info-dynamics  cost-benefit  incentives  markets  signaling  info-econ  institutions  preference-falsification  org:sci  scitariat  peace-violence  org:anglo  twitter  social  commentary  backup  gnon  rant  pessimism  :/  asia  managerial-state  anarcho-tyranny 
july 2016 by nhaliday
Phantom vibration syndrome - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
this is weird and happens to me more than I ever expected it would
psychology  wiki  :/  cocktail 
july 2016 by nhaliday
What if PTSD Is More Physical Than Psychological? - The New York Times
A new study supports what a small group of military researchers has suspected for decades: that modern warfare destroys the brain.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/08/18/ptsd/
You know, it shouldn’t exist. Human history and prehistory is crammed with all kind of mayhem and trauma: infant mortality, infanticide, genocidal fights with neighboring tribes. You routinely lost family and routinely killed enemies. Childbirth hurts a lot. What’s the adaptive strategy, in all of these situations? ? Get over it.

...

But in WWI, we heard a lot about ‘shell shock’. Later, in WWII, ‘combat fatigue’ or ‘battle neurosis’. Artillery wars. I would guess that what actually happened was a combination of people finding a way to avoid getting killed, and brain damage due to nearby explosions. After experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, plus football and boxing, people are thinking seriously about those explosions as a cause of PTSD.

Psychology in the 20th century looked for environmental causes of mental problems – toilet training, ‘refrigerator mothers’, ‘absent father/overprotective mother’, ‘double binds’. And of other social problems: school could make you smart or dumb, kids were ‘depraved because they were deprived’, blah blah.

As far as I can tell they were entirely wrong. Genetics and physical trauma ( which includes iodine shortages). No real sign that they were right about those other problems either: certainly interesting that the programs designed to ameliorate those problems, based on the standard environmental assumptions, never, ever work.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/sports/football/nfl-cte.html
A neuropathologist has examined the brains of 111 N.F.L. players — and 110 were found to have C.T.E., the degenerative disease linked to repeated blows to the head.
neuro  medicine  :/  war  military  hmm  cocktail  embodied-cognition  🌞  org:rec  psychiatry  biodet  embodied  safety  brain-scan  multi  fighting  sports  roots  thinking  being-right  darwinian  evolution  evopsych  west-hunter  scitariat  volo-avolo  strategy  environmental-effects  realness  equilibrium  explanans  track-record  social-science  psychology  cog-psych  error  EGT  EEA  history  antiquity  death  nihil  order-disorder  mostly-modern  world-war  psycho-atoms  stress  disease  ability-competence  europe  germanic  japan  asia  britain  russia  communism  summary  defense  discipline  stamina  optimate  martial  logistics 
june 2016 by nhaliday

bundles : emoji

related tags

-_-  2016-election  :/  aaronson  ability-competence  abortion-contraception-embryo  abstraction  academia  accelerationism  accuracy  acemoglu  acm  adversarial  advertising  advice  africa  age-generation  aging  agri-mindset  ai  akrasia  albion  alesina  alien-character  alt-inst  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anarcho-tyranny  anglo  anglosphere  announcement  anomie  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  app  apple  arbitrage  archaeology  aristos  arrows  art  article  asia  assimilation  assortative-mating  attaq  attention  audio  authoritarianism  autism  automation  aversion  axelrod  axioms  backup  barons  being-right  big-peeps  bio  biodet  biophysical-econ  biotech  books  bootstraps  brain-scan  branches  britain  broad-econ  business  c:*  c:***  california  cancer  capital  capitalism  carcinisation  career  CAS  causation  censorship  charity  chart  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  cjones-like  class  class-warfare  classification  clinton  cloud  clown-world  coalitions  cocktail  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  collaboration  comedy  comics  coming-apart  commentary  communication  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  compilers  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  computer-vision  concept  concrete  conquest-empire  consumerism  context  contrarianism  convexity-curvature  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  counter-revolution  counterexample  counterfactual  courage  cracker-econ  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  CRISPR  critique  crooked  crosstab  cultural-dynamics  culture  culture-war  current-events  curvature  cycles  cynicism-idealism  darwinian  data  death  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  deep-learning  defense  definite-planning  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  dennett  descriptive  developing-world  developmental  diaspora  dignity  diogenes  direction  dirty-hands  discipline  discussion  disease  distribution  divergence  diversity  domestication  dotnet  douthatish  drama  dropbox  drugs  duplication  duty  dynamic  dysgenics  early-modern  earth  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  ed-yong  eden  education  EEA  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  EGT  elections  elite  embodied  embodied-cognition  emotion  empirical  endo-exo  endocrine  endogenous-exogenous  engineering  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  entrepreneurialism  environment  environmental-effects  epigenetics  epistemic  equilibrium  eric-kaufmann  error  essay  estimate  ethics  ethnocentrism  ethnography  EU  europe  events  evidence-based  evolution  evopsych  exit-voice  exocortex  expansionism  expert  expert-experience  explanans  explore-exploit  expression-survival  externalities  facebook  failure  faq  farmers-and-foragers  FDA  features  fermi  fertility  feudal  fiction  fighting  finance  fitness  flexibility  fluid  flux-stasis  focus  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  form-design  formal-values  forms-instances  fourier  free-riding  frequency  functional  futurism  gallic  games  garett-jones  gbooks  gedanken  gender  gender-diff  generalization  genetics  genomics  geography  germanic  get-fit  gibbon  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnxp  google  gotchas  government  grad-school  gray-econ  gregory-clark  group-selection  growth  growth-econ  guide  GWAS  gwern  h2o  hanson  hanushek  hard-tech  hardware  hari-seldon  harvard  health  healthcare  heavy-industry  hetero-advantage  heterodox  higher-ed  history  hive-mind  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  horror  housing  hsu  human-capital  humility  hypochondria  hypocrisy  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  idk  iidness  illusion  immune  impact  impetus  incentives  increase-decrease  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  inequality  info-dynamics  info-econ  info-foraging  infrastructure  inhibition  innovation  input-output  insight  institutions  integrity  intellectual-property  intelligence  interests  internet  intervention  interview  investigative-journo  investing  ios  iq  iron-age  is-ought  islam  israel  japan  javascript  jobs  journos-pundits  judaism  judgement  justice  kinship  knowledge  kumbaya-kult  labor  language  large-factor  latin-america  law  leadership  leaks  learning  left-wing  legacy  legibility  len:short  let-me-see  letters  leviathan  lexical  life-history  links  list  literature  local-global  logistics  lol  long-short-run  long-term  longform  longitudinal  lower-bounds  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  malaise  male-variability  malthus  management  managerial-state  map-territory  marginal  marginal-rev  market-failure  markets  martial  math  mathtariat  meaningness  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memes(ew)  MENA  mena4  meta-analysis  meta:math  meta:medicine  meta:rhetoric  metabolic  methodology  microfoundations  midwest  migrant-crisis  migration  military  mindful  miri-cfar  mobile  mobility  model-class  models  modernity  moloch  monetary-fiscal  money  mooc  morality  mostly-modern  multi  music  musk  mystic  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  near-far  neuro  neuro-nitgrit  neurons  new-religion  news  nibble  nietzschean  nihil  nl-and-so-can-you  noblesse-oblige  nonlinearity  nootropics  nordic  nostalgia  notetaking  null-result  nutrition  objektbuch  ocaml-sml  occident  oceans  old-anglo  olympics  openai  opioids  optimate  optimism  optimization  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bleg  org:bv  org:data  org:econlib  org:edu  org:foreign  org:gov  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:mat  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  org:theos  organization  organizing  orient  orwellian  oscillation  oss  oxbridge  paleocon  papers  parasites-microbiome  parenting  path-dependence  patho-altruism  patience  paul-romer  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  people  personality  perturbation  pessimism  phalanges  phd  philosophy  phys-energy  pic  pinboard  piracy  planning  pls  poast  podcast  poetry  polarization  policy  polis  polisci  politics  poll  pop-structure  popsci  population  populism  postmortem  postrat  power  pragmatic  pre-ww2  prediction  prediction-markets  preference-falsification  prepping  preprint  presentation  primitivism  prioritizing  privacy  pro-rata  problem-solving  productivity  profile  programming  progression  project  propaganda  properties  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  prudence  pseudoE  psych-architecture  psychiatry  psycho-atoms  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  public-health  putnam-like  q-n-a  qra  quantitative-qualitative  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  rant  rationality  ratty  realness  realpolitik  recent-selection  recommendations  recruiting  redistribution  reference  reflection  regularizer  regulation  religion  rent-seeking  retention  retrofit  review  revolution  rhetoric  right-wing  rigor  rindermann-thompson  rio-2016  risk  ritual  robotics  robust  rock  roots  rot  russia  s-factor  s:*  s:***  saas  safety  sanctity-degradation  sapiens  satire  scale  scaling-up  science  science-anxiety  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  security  self-control  self-interest  serene  sex  sexuality  shift  sib-study  signal-noise  signaling  simler  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  slippery-slope  social  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  society  sociology  socs-and-mops  software  solid-study  spatial  spearhead  speculation  speedometer  spock  sports  ssc  stackex  stagnation  stamina  stanford  startups  stat-power  state-of-art  statesmen  stats  status  stories  strategy  straussian  stream  street-fighting  stress  structure  study  studying  stylized-facts  subculture  success  sulla  summary  supply-demand  survey  sv  systematic-ad-hoc  tactics  tails  taxes  tcstariat  teaching  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  temperance  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-monster  the-trenches  the-watchers  the-west  theory-of-mind  theos  thiel  things  thinking  time  time-preference  time-series  time-use  tip-of-tongue  tocqueville  toolkit  tools  toxoplasmosis  track-record  tradeoffs  tradition  transitions  transportation  travel  trends  tribalism  trivia  troll  trump  truth  tv  twitter  types  unaffiliated  unintended-consequences  urban  urban-rural  urbit  us-them  usa  utopia-dystopia  ux  vague  values  vampire-squid  venture  video  virtu  visual-understanding  visualization  visuo  vitality  volo-avolo  vulgar  war  waves  wealth-of-nations  weird  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  wisdom  within-group  within-without  wonkish  workflow  working-stiff  world  world-war  writing  wtf  wut  X-not-about-Y  x-sports  yarvin  yvain  zeitgeist  🌞  🎩  🐝  🐸  👽  🔬  🤖  🦉 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: