14510
The association between adolescent well-being and digital technology use | Nature Human Behaviour
"The widespread use of digital technologies by young people has spurred speculation that their regular use negatively impacts psychological well-being. Current empirical evidence supporting this idea is largely based on secondary analyses of large-scale social datasets. Though these datasets provide a valuable resource for highly powered investigations, their many variables and observations are often explored with an analytical flexibility that marks small effects as statistically significant, thereby leading to potential false positives and conflicting results. Here we address these methodological challenges by applying specification curve analysis (SCA) across three large-scale social datasets (total n = 355,358) to rigorously examine correlational evidence for the effects of digital technology on adolescents. The association we find between digital technology use and adolescent well-being is negative but small, explaining at most 0.4% of the variation in well-being. Taking the broader context of the data into account suggests that these effects are too small to warrant policy change."

--- This sounds awesome, but will need to be read carefully.
to:NB  to_read  networked_life  sociology  statistics  model_checking  to_teach:undergrad-ADA  to_be_shot_after_a_fair_trial  re:actually-dr-internet-is-the-name-of-the-monsters-creator 
2 days ago
THE EFFECT OF UNMEASURED CONFOUNDERS ON THE ABILITY TO ESTIMATE A TRUE PERFORMANCE OR SELECTION GRADIENT (AND OTHER PARTIAL REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS) - Walker - 2014 - Evolution - Wiley Online Library
"Multiple regression of observational data is frequently used to infer causal effects. Partial regression coefficients are biased estimates of causal effects if unmeasured confounders are not in the regression model. The sensitivity of partial regression coefficients to omitted confounders is investigated with a Monte‐Carlo simulation. A subset of causal traits is “measured” and their effects are estimated using ordinary least squares regression and compared to their expected values. Three major results are: (1) the error due to confounding is much larger than that due to sampling, especially with large samples, (2) confounding error shrinks trivially with sample size, and (3) small true effects are frequently estimated as large effects. Consequently, confidence intervals from regression are poor guides to the true intervals, especially with large sample sizes. The addition of a confounder to the model improves estimates only 55% of the time. Results are improved with complete knowledge of the rank order of causal effects but even with this omniscience, measured intervals are poor proxies for true intervals if there are many unmeasured confounders. The results suggest that only under very limited conditions can we have much confidence in the magnitude of partial regression coefficients as estimates of causal effects."
to:NB  genetics  causal_inference  statistics  via:? 
2 days ago
[1801.07351] Tracking network dynamics: a survey of distances and similarity metrics
"From longitudinal biomedical studies to social networks, graphs have emerged as a powerful framework for describing evolving interactions between agents in complex systems. In such studies, after pre-processing, the data can be represented by a set of graphs, each representing a system's state at different points in time. The analysis of the system's dynamics depends on the selection of the appropriate analytical tools. After characterizing similarities between states, a critical step lies in the choice of a distance between graphs capable of reflecting such similarities. While the literature offers a number of distances that one could a priori choose from, their properties have been little investigated and no guidelines regarding the choice of such a distance have yet been provided. In particular, most graph distances consider that the nodes are exchangeable and do not take into account node identities. Accounting for the alignment of the graphs enables us to enhance these distances' sensitivity to perturbations in the network and detect important changes in graph dynamics. Thus the selection of an adequate metric is a decisive --yet delicate--practical matter.
"In the spirit of Goldenberg, Zheng and Fienberg's seminal 2009 review, the purpose of this article is to provide an overview of commonly-used graph distances and an explicit characterization of the structural changes that they are best able to capture. We use as a guiding thread to our discussion the application of these distances to the analysis of both a longitudinal microbiome dataset and a brain fMRI study. We show examples of using permutation tests to detect the effect of covariates on the graphs' variability. Synthetic examples provide intuition as to the qualities and drawbacks of the different distances. Above all, we provide some guidance for choosing one distance over another in certain types of applications."
to:NB  network_data_analysis  re:network_differences  holmes.susan  to_teach:baby-nets 
2 days ago
Wiener Chaos: Moments, Cumulants and Diagrams | SpringerLink
"The concept of Wiener chaos generalizes to an infinite-dimensional setting the properties of orthogonal polynomials associated with probability distributions on the real line. It plays a crucial role in modern probability theory, with applications ranging from Malliavin calculus to stochastic differential equations and from probabilistic approximations to mathematical finance. This book is concerned with combinatorial structures arising from the study of chaotic random variables related to infinitely divisible random measures. The combinatorial structures involved are those of partitions of finite sets, over which Möbius functions and related inversion formulae are defined. This combinatorial standpoint (which is originally due to Rota and Wallstrom) provides an ideal framework for diagrams, which are graphical devices used to compute moments and cumulants of random variables. Several applications are described, in particular, recent limit theorems for chaotic random variables. "
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  probability  stochastic_processes  feynman_diagrams 
2 days ago
Morphing Intelligence - From IQ Measurement to Artificial Brains | Columbia University Press
"What is intelligence? The concept crosses and blurs the boundaries between natural and artificial, bridging the human brain and the cybernetic world of AI. In this book, the acclaimed philosopher Catherine Malabou ventures a new approach that emphasizes the intertwined, networked relationships among the biological, the technological, and the symbolic.
"Malabou traces the modern metamorphoses of intelligence, seeking to understand how neurobiological and neurotechnological advances have transformed our view. She considers three crucial developments: the notion of intelligence as an empirical, genetically based quality measurable by standardized tests; the shift to the epigenetic paradigm, with its emphasis on neural plasticity; and the dawn of artificial intelligence, with its potential to simulate, replicate, and ultimately surpass the workings of the brain. Malabou concludes that a dialogue between human and cybernetic intelligence offers the best if not the only means to build a democratic future. A strikingly original exploration of our changing notions of intelligence and the human and their far-reaching philosophical and political implications, Morphing Intelligence is an essential analysis of the porous border between symbolic and biological life at a time when once-clear distinctions between mind and machine have become uncertain."
to:NB  books:noted  iq  philosophy  philosophy_of_mind  barely-comprehensible_metaphysics  to_be_shot_after_a_fair_trial  re:g_paper 
3 days ago
Knowledge, Power, and Academic Freedom | Columbia University Press
"Academic freedom rests on a shared belief that the production of knowledge advances the common good. In an era of education budget cuts, wealthy donors intervening in university decisions, and right-wing groups threatening dissenters, scholars cannot expect that those in power will value their work. Can academic freedom survive in this environment—and must we rearticulate what academic freedom is in order to defend it?
"This book presents a series of essays by the renowned historian Joan Wallach Scott that explore the history and theory of free inquiry and its value today. Scott considers the contradictions in the concept of academic freedom. She examines the relationship between state power and higher education; the differences between the First Amendment right of free speech and the guarantee of academic freedom; and, in response to recent campus controversies, the politics of civility. The book concludes with an interview conducted by Bill Moyers in which Scott discusses the personal experiences that have informed her views. Academic freedom is an aspiration, Scott holds: its implementation always falls short of its promise, but it is essential as an ideal of ethical practice. Knowledge, Power, and Academic Freedom is both a nuanced reflection on the tensions within a cherished concept and a strong defense of the importance of critical scholarship to safeguard democracy against the anti-intellectualism of figures from Joseph McCarthy to Donald Trump."
to:NB  books:noted  academia  academic_freedom 
3 days ago
Size-Independent Sample Complexity of Neural Networks
"We study the sample complexity of learning neural networks, by providing new bounds on their Rademacher complexity assuming norm constraints on the parameter matrix of each layer. Compared to previous work, these complexity bounds have improved dependence on the network depth, and under some additional assumptions, are fully independent of the network size (both depth and width). These results are derived using some novel techniques, which may be of independent interest."
to:NB  to_read  neural_networks  learning_theory  rakhlin.sasha  via:? 
4 days ago
Facebook Democracy (Open Access) | The Architecture of Disclosure and the Threat to Public Life | Taylor & Francis Group
"In July 2010, Facebook had over 500 million subscribers worldwide and the rapid rise of the site prompted Time magazine to name Facebook's founder Mark Zuckerberg its person of the year for 2010. This novel book advances our understanding of how democratic citizens are transformed by the "Facebook revolution". Despite increasing interest in politics and popular media, there has been little academic work on the impact of Facebook on politics in general, and on democratic processes in particular. The work that does exist has been limited to Facebook's impact on politics as a mobilization tool used by social movement activists. In this book, José Marichal argues that understanding Facebook's impact on political processes requires an understanding of how Facebook's architecture of disclosure shapes the construction of individuals' political identities by drawing users further into their pre-selected social networks. Drawing on a number of disciplines and an ethnographic analysis of 250 Facebook political groups, Marichal explores how Facebook's emphasis on social connection impacts key dimensions of political participation: e.g., mobilization, deliberation, and attitude formation."

--- From 2012; somewhat interested to see how it holds up.
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  networked_life  social_media  democracy  re:actually-dr-internet-is-the-name-of-the-monsters-creator 
5 days ago
Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation | SpringerLink
"This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies.  Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature.
"Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportation, and consumers in general to decide on appropriate action."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  time_series  statistics  social_science_methodology  to_teach:data_over_space_and_time 
7 days ago
A Geohistorical Study of “The Rise of Modern Science”: Mapping Scientific Practice Through Urban Networks, 1500–1900 | SpringerLink
"This chapter brings together these two parts of world-systems thinking, core-periphery and knowledge structures, by mapping the production of modern structures of knowledge through a detailed study of the changing geography of scientific practice in the modern world-system to 1900. We show it is a process located in the core of this world-system, but its geography is always more complex than specification as simply core process indicates."

--- Potentially interesting, if I can handle seeing a citation to Wallerstein in every paragraph. (I exaggerate, a bit.)
to:NB  geography  scientific_revolution  early_modern_world_history 
7 days ago
Billionaires and Stealth Politics, Page, Seawright, Lacombe
"In 2016, when millions of Americans voted for Donald Trump, many believed his claims that personal wealth would free him from wealthy donors and allow him to “drain the swamp.” But then Trump appointed several billionaires and multimillionaires to high-level positions and pursued billionaire-friendly policies, such as cutting corporate income taxes. Why the change from his fiery campaign rhetoric and promises to the working class? This should not be surprising, argue Benjamin I. Page, Jason Seawright, and Matthew J. Lacombe: As the gap between the wealthiest and the rest of us has widened, the few who hold one billion dollars or more in net worth have begun to play a more and more active part in politics—with serious consequences for democracy in the United States.
"Page, Seawright, and Lacombe argue that while political contributions offer a window onto billionaires’ influence, especially on economic policy, they do not present a full picture of policy preferences and political actions. That is because on some of the most important issues, including taxation, immigration, and Social Security, billionaires have chosen to engage in “stealth politics.” They try hard to influence public policy, making large contributions to political parties and policy-focused causes, leading policy-advocacy organizations, holding political fundraisers, and bundling others’ contributions—all while rarely talking about public policy to the media. This means that their influence is not only unequal but also largely unaccountable to and unchallengeable by the American people. Stealth politics makes it difficult for ordinary citizens to know what billionaires are doing or mobilize against it. The book closes with remedies citizens can pursue if they wish to make wealthy Americans more politically accountable, such as public financing of political campaigns and easier voting procedures, and notes the broader types of reforms, such as a more progressive income tax system, that would be needed to increase political equality and reinvigorate majoritarian democracy in the United States."
 
to:NB  books:noted  us_politics  our_decrepit_institutions  corruption  inequality 
8 days ago
The Gateway to the Pacific: Japanese Americans and the Remaking of San Francisco, Oda
"In the decades following World War II, municipal leaders and ordinary citizens embraced San Francisco’s identity as the “Gateway to the Pacific,” using it to reimagine and rebuild the city. The city became a cosmopolitan center on account of its newfound celebration of its Japanese and other Asian American residents, its economy linked with Asia, and its favorable location for transpacific partnerships. The most conspicuous testament to San Francisco’s postwar transpacific connections is the Japanese Cultural and Trade Center in the city’s redeveloped Japanese-American enclave.
"Focusing on the development of the Center, Meredith Oda shows how this multilayered story was embedded within a larger story of the changing institutions and ideas that were shaping the city. During these formative decades, Oda argues, San Francisco’s relations with and ideas about Japan were being forged within the intimate, local sites of civic and community life. This shift took many forms, including changes in city leadership, new municipal institutions, and especially transformations in the built environment. Newly friendly relations between Japan and the United States also meant that Japanese Americans found fresh, if highly constrained, job and community prospects just as the city’s African Americans struggled against rising barriers. San Francisco’s story is an inherently local one, but it also a broader story of a city collectively, if not cooperatively, reimagining its place in a global economy."
to:NB  books:noted  american_history  san_francisco 
8 days ago
Impostors: Literary Hoaxes and Cultural Authenticity, Miller
"Writing a new page in the surprisingly long history of literary deceit, Impostors examines a series of literary hoaxes, deceptions that involved flagrant acts of cultural appropriation. This book looks at authors who posed as people they were not, in order to claim a different ethnic, class, or other identity. These writers were, in other words, literary usurpers and appropriators who trafficked in what Christopher L. Miller terms the “intercultural hoax.”
"In the United States, such hoaxes are familiar. Forrest Carter’s The Education of Little Tree and JT LeRoy’s Sarah are two infamous examples. Miller’s contribution is to study hoaxes beyond our borders, employing a comparative framework and bringing French and African identity hoaxes into dialogue with some of their better-known American counterparts. In France, multiculturalism is generally eschewed in favor of universalism, and there should thus be no identities (in the American sense) to steal. However, as Miller demonstrates, this too is a ruse: French universalism can only go so far and do so much. There is plenty of otherness to appropriate. This French and Francophone tradition of imposture has never received the study it deserves. Taking a novel approach to this understudied tradition, Impostors examines hoaxes in both countries, finding similar practices of deception and questions of harm.  "
to:NB  books:noted  literary_history  literary_criticism  rhetorical_self-fashioning  fraud  comparative_sociology  america  france 
8 days ago
Lost Maps of the Caliphs: Drawing the World in Eleventh-Century Cairo, Rapoport, Savage-Smith
"About a millennium ago, in Cairo, an unknown author completed a large and richly illustrated book. In the course of thirty-five chapters, this book guided the reader on a journey from the outermost cosmos and planets to Earth and its lands, islands, features, and inhabitants. This treatise, known as The Book of Curiosities, was unknown to modern scholars until a remarkable manuscript copy surfaced in 2000.
"Lost Maps of the Caliphs provides the first general overview of The Book of Curiosities and the unique insight it offers into medieval Islamic thought. Opening with an account of the remarkable discovery of the manuscript and its purchase by the Bodleian Library, the authors use The Book of Curiosities to re-evaluate the development of astrology, geography, and cartography in the first four centuries of Islam. Their account assesses the transmission of Late Antique geography to the Islamic world, unearths the logic behind abstract maritime diagrams, and considers the palaces and walls that dominate medieval Islamic plans of towns and ports. Early astronomical maps and drawings demonstrate the medieval understanding of the structure of the cosmos and illustrate the pervasive assumption that almost any visible celestial event had an effect upon life on Earth. Lost Maps of the Caliphs also reconsiders the history of global communication networks at the turn of the previous millennium. It shows the Fatimid Empire, and its capital Cairo, as a global maritime power, with tentacles spanning from the eastern Mediterranean to the Indus Valley and the East African coast.
"As Lost Maps of the Caliphs makes clear, not only is The Book of Curiosities one of the greatest achievements of medieval mapmaking, it is also a remarkable contribution to the story of Islamic civilization that opens an unexpected window to the medieval Islamic view of the world."
to:NB  books:noted  history_of_ideas  history_of_science  islamic_civilization  maps 
8 days ago
Ethnicity without Groups — Rogers Brubaker | Harvard University Press
"Despite a quarter-century of constructivist theorizing in the social sciences and humanities, ethnic groups continue to be conceived as entities and cast as actors. Journalists, policymakers, and researchers routinely frame accounts of ethnic, racial, and national conflict as the struggles of internally homogeneous, externally bounded ethnic groups, races, and nations. In doing so, they unwittingly adopt the language of participants in such struggles, and contribute to the reification of ethnic groups.
"In this timely and provocative volume, Rogers Brubaker—well known for his work on immigration, citizenship, and nationalism—challenges this pervasive and commonsense “groupism.” But he does not simply revert to standard constructivist tropes about the fluidity and multiplicity of identity. Once a bracing challenge to conventional wisdom, constructivism has grown complacent, even cliched. That ethnicity is constructed is commonplace; this volume provides new insights into how it is constructed. By shifting the analytical focus from identity to identifications, from groups as entities to group-making projects, from shared culture to categorization, from substance to process, Brubaker shows that ethnicity, race, and nation are not things in the world but perspectives on the world: ways of seeing, interpreting, and representing the social world."
to:NB  books:noted  racism  race  nationalism  social_identity  sociology  re:actually-dr-internet-is-the-name-of-the-monsters-creator 
8 days ago
The Geography of the Internet Industry (2008)
"This groundbreaking book analyses the geography of the commercial Internet industry. It presents the first accurate map of Internet domains in the world, by country, by region, by city, and for the United States, by neighborhood.
"Demonstrates the extraordinary spatial concentration of the Internetindustry.
Explains the geographic features of the high tech venture capital behind the Internet economy.
Demonstrates how venture capitalists' abilities to create and use tacit knowledge contributes to the clustering of the internet industry
Draws on in-depth interviews and field work in San Francisco Bay Area and New York City."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  economics  economic_geography  internet  market_failures_in_everything 
9 days ago
How to be a Quantitative Ecologist | Wiley Online Books
"Ecological research is becoming increasingly quantitative, yet students often opt out of courses in mathematics and statistics, unwittingly limiting their ability to carry out research in the future. This textbook provides a practical introduction to quantitative ecology for students and practitioners who have realised that they need this opportunity.
"The text is addressed to readers who haven't used mathematics since school, who were perhaps more confused than enlightened by their undergraduate lectures in statistics and who have never used a computer for much more than word processing and data entry. From this starting point, it slowly but surely instils an understanding of mathematics, statistics and programming, sufficient for initiating research in ecology. The book’s practical value is enhanced by extensive use of biological examples and the computer language R for graphics, programming and data analysis."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  ecology  statistics  R 
9 days ago
Data Analysis: What Can Be Learned from the Past 50 Years? (Huber, 2011)
"This book explores the many provocative questions concerning the fundamentals of data analysis. It is based on the time-tested experience of one of the gurus of the subject matter. Why should one study data analysis? How should it be taught? What techniques work best, and for whom? How valid are the results? How much data should be tested? Which machine languages should be used, if used at all? Emphasis on apprenticeship (through hands-on case studies) and anecdotes (through real-life applications) are the tools that Peter J. Huber uses in this volume. Concern with specific statistical techniques is not of immediate value; rather, questions of strategy – when to use which technique – are employed. Central to the discussion is an understanding of the significance of massive (or robust) data sets, the implementation of languages, and the use of models. Each is sprinkled with an ample number of examples and case studies. Personal practices, various pitfalls, and existing controversies are presented when applicable. The book serves as an excellent philosophical and historical companion to any present-day text in data analysis, robust statistics, data mining, statistical learning, or computational statistics."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  statistics  huber.peter 
9 days ago
Controlled Branching Processes | Wiley Online Books
"The purpose of this book is to provide a comprehensive discussion of the available results for discrete time branching processes with random control functions. The independence of individuals’ reproduction is a fundamental assumption in the classical branching processes. Alternatively, the controlled branching processes (CBPs) allow the number of reproductive individuals in one generation to decrease or increase depending on the size of the previous generation.
"Generating a wide range of behaviors, the CBPs have been successfully used as modeling tools in diverse areas of applications."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  branching_processes  stochastic_processes 
9 days ago
Discrete Time Branching Processes in Random Environment | Wiley Online Books
"Branching processes are stochastic processes which represent the reproduction of particles, such as individuals within a population, and thereby model demographic stochasticity. In branching processes in random environment (BPREs), additional environmental stochasticity is incorporated, meaning that the conditions of reproduction may vary in a random fashion from one generation to the next.
"This book offers an introduction to the basics of BPREs and then presents the cases of critical and subcritical processes in detail, the latter dividing into weakly, intermediate, and strongly subcritical regimes."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  branching_processes  stochastic_processes 
9 days ago
Empirical Model Building | Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
"Successful empirical model building is founded on the relationship between data and approximate representations of the real systems that generated that data. As a result, it is essential for researchers who construct these models to possess the special skills and techniques for producing results that are insightful, reliable, and useful. Empirical Model Building: Data, Models, and Reality, Second Edition presents a hands-on approach to the basic principles of empirical model building through a shrewd mixture of differential equations, computer-intensive methods, and data. The book outlines both classical and new approaches and incorporates numerous real-world statistical problems that illustrate modeling approaches that are applicable to a broad range of audiences, including applied statisticians and practicing engineers and scientists.
"The book continues to review models of growth and decay, systems where competition and interaction add to the complextiy of the model while discussing both classical and non-classical data analysis methods. This Second Edition now features further coverage of momentum based investing practices and resampling techniques, showcasing their importance and expediency in the real world. The author provides applications of empirical modeling, such as computer modeling of the AIDS epidemic to explain why North America has most of the AIDS cases in the First World and data-based strategies that allow individual investors to build their own investment portfolios. Throughout the book, computer-based analysis is emphasized and newly added and updated exercises allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material."
to:NB  books:noted  modeling  simulation  time_series  statistics  downloaded  to_be_shot_after_a_fair_trial 
9 days ago
Extremes in Random Fields | Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
"Modern science typically involves the analysis of increasingly complex data. The extreme values that emerge in the statistical analysis of complex data are often of particular interest. This book focuses on the analytical approximations of the statistical significance of extreme values. Several relatively complex applications of the technique to problems that emerge in practical situations are presented.  All the examples are difficult to analyze using classical methods, and as a result, the author presents a novel technique, designed to be more accessible to the user.
"Extreme value analysis is widely applied in areas such as operational research, bioinformatics, computer science, finance and many other disciplines. This book will be useful for scientists, engineers and advanced graduate students who need to develop their own statistical tools for the analysis of their data. Whilst this book may not provide the reader with the specific answer it will inspire them to rethink their problem in the context of random fields, apply the method, and produce a solution."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  random_fields  stochastic_processes  extreme_values  statistics  spatial_statistics 
9 days ago
Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Spatial Point Patterns | Wiley Online Books
"Spatial point processes are mathematical models used to describe and analyse the geometrical structure of patterns formed by objects that are irregularly or randomly distributed in one-, two- or three-dimensional space. Examples include locations of trees in a forest, blood particles on a glass plate, galaxies in the universe, and particle centres in samples of material.
"Numerous aspects of the nature of a specific spatial point pattern may be described using the appropriate statistical methods. Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Spatial Point Patterns provides a practical guide to the use of these specialised methods. The application-oriented approach helps demonstrate the benefits of this increasingly popular branch of statistics to a broad audience."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  statistics  point_processes  spatial_statistics  to_teach:data_over_space_and_time 
9 days ago
Spatial Statistics and Spatio‐Temporal Data | Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
"In the spatial or spatio-temporal context, specifying the correct covariance function is fundamental to obtain efficient predictions, and to understand the underlying physical process of interest. This book focuses on covariance and variogram functions, their role in prediction, and appropriate choice of these functions in applications. Both recent and more established methods are illustrated to assess many common assumptions on these functions, such as, isotropy, separability, symmetry, and intrinsic correlation."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  spatial_statistics  spatio-temporal_statistics  statistics  to_teach:data_over_space_and_time 
9 days ago
Spatial and Spatio‐Temporal Geostatistical Modeling and Kriging | Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
"Statistical Methods for Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis provides a complete range of spatio-temporal covariance functions and discusses ways of constructing them. This book is a unified approach to modeling spatial and spatio-temporal data together with significant developments in statistical methodology with applications in R.
"This book includes:
Methods for selecting valid covariance functions from the empirical counterparts that overcome the existing limitations of the traditional methods.
The most innovative developments in the different steps of the kriging process.
An up-to-date account of strategies for dealing with data evolving in space and time.
An accompanying website featuring R code and examples"
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  spatial_statistics  spatio-temporal_statistics  to_teach:data_over_space_and_time 
9 days ago
Sensitivity Analysis in Practice | Wiley Online Books
"Sensitivity analysis should be considered a pre-requisite for statistical model building in any scientific discipline where modelling takes place. For a non-expert, choosing the method of analysis for their model is complex, and depends on a number of factors. This  book guides the non-expert through their problem in order to enable them to choose and apply the most appropriate method. It offers a review of the state-of-the-art in sensitivity analysis, and is suitable for a wide range of practitioners. It is focussed on the use of SIMLAB – a widely distributed freely-available sensitivity analysis software package developed by the authors – for solving problems in sensitivity analysis of statistical models."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  sensitivity_analysis  modeling  simulation 
9 days ago
Propagation Dynamics on Complex Networks | Wiley Online Books
"Throughout history epidemic diseases have presented a serious threat to human life, and in recent years the spread of infectious diseases such as dengue, malaria, HIV, and SARS has captured global attention; and in the modern technological age, the proliferation of virus attacks on the Internet highlights the emergent need for knowledge about modeling, analysis, and control in epidemic dynamics on complex networks. 
"For advancement of techniques, it has become clear that more fundamental knowledge will be needed in mathematical and numerical context about how epidemic dynamical networks can be modelled, analyzed, and controlled. This book explores recent progress in these topics and looks at issues relating to various epidemic systems."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  epidemic_models  networks  re:do-institutions-evolve 
9 days ago
Political Attitudes | Wiley Online Books
"Political Science has traditionally employed empirical research and analytical resources to understand, explain and predict political phenomena. One of the long-standing criticisms against empirical modeling targets the static perspective provided by the model-invariant paradigm. In political science research, this issue has a particular relevance since political phenomena prove sophisticated degrees of context-dependency whose complexity could be hardly captured by traditional approaches. To cope with the complexity challenge, a new modeling paradigm was needed. This book is concerned with this challenge. Moreover, the book aims to reveal the power of computational modeling of political attitudes to reinforce the political methodology in facing two fundamental challenges: political culture modeling and polity modeling. The book argues that an artificial polity model as a powerful research instrument could hardly be effective without the political attitude and, by extension, the political culture computational and simulation modeling theory, experiments and practice."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  voter_model  social_influence  public_opinion  agent-based_models  political_science  simulation  interacting_particle_systems 
9 days ago
Multiple‐Point Geostatistics | Wiley Online Books
"This book provides a comprehensive introduction to multiple-point geostatistics, where spatial continuity is described using training images. Multiple-point geostatistics aims at bridging the gap between physical modelling/realism and spatio-temporal stochastic modelling. The book provides an overview of this new field in three parts. Part I presents a conceptual comparison between traditional random function theory and stochastic modelling based on training images, where random function theory is not always used. Part II covers in detail various algorithms and methodologies starting from basic building blocks in statistical science and computer science. Concepts such as non-stationary and multi-variate modeling, consistency between data and model, the construction of training images and inverse modelling are treated. Part III covers three example application areas, namely, reservoir modelling, mineral resources modelling and climate model downscaling. This book will be an invaluable reference for students, researchers and practitioners of all areas of the Earth Sciences where forecasting based on spatio-temporal data is performed."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  spatial_statistics  spatio-temporal_statistics  statistics 
9 days ago
Multivariate Density Estimation | Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics
"Featuring a thoroughly revised presentation, Multivariate Density Estimation: Theory, Practice, and Visualization, Second Edition maintains an intuitive approach to the underlying methodology and supporting theory of density estimation. Including new material and updated research in each chapter, the Second Edition presents additional clarification of theoretical opportunities, new algorithms, and up-to-date coverage of the unique challenges presented in the field of data analysis.
"The new edition focuses on the various density estimation techniques and methods that can be used in the field of big data. Defining optimal nonparametric estimators, the Second Edition demonstrates the density estimation tools to use when dealing with various multivariate structures in univariate, bivariate, trivariate, and quadrivariate data analysis. Continuing to illustrate the major concepts in the context of the classical histogram, Multivariate Density Estimation: Theory, Practice, and Visualization, Second Edition also features:
Over 150 updated figures to clarify theoretical results and to show analyses of real data sets
An updated presentation of graphic visualization using computer software such as R
A clear discussion of selections of important research during the past decade, including mixture estimation, robust parametric modeling algorithms, and clustering
More than 130 problems to help readers reinforce the main concepts and ideas presented
Boxed theorems and results allowing easy identification of crucial ideas
Figures in color in the digital versions of the book
A website with related data sets
"Multivariate Density Estimation: Theory, Practice, and Visualization, Second Edition is an ideal reference for theoretical and applied statisticians, practicing engineers, as well as readers interested in the theoretical aspects of nonparametric estimation and the application of these methods to multivariate data. The Second Edition is also useful as a textbook for introductory courses in kernel statistics, smoothing, advanced computational statistics, and general forms of statistical distributions."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  smoothing  density_estimation  statistics  nonparametrics 
9 days ago
Kernel Smoothing | Wiley Online Books
"Comprehensive theoretical overview of kernel smoothing methods with motivating examples
"Kernel smoothing is a flexible nonparametric curve estimation method that is applicable when parametric descriptions of the data are not sufficiently adequate. This book explores theory and methods of kernel smoothing in a variety of contexts, considering independent and correlated data e.g. with short-memory and long-memory correlations, as well as non-Gaussian data that are transformations of latent Gaussian processes. These types of data occur in many fields of research, e.g. the natural and the environmental sciences, and others. Nonparametric density estimation, nonparametric and semiparametric regression, trend and surface estimation in particular for time series and spatial data and other topics such as rapid change points, robustness etc. are introduced alongside a study of their theoretical properties and optimality issues, such as consistency and bandwidth selection.
"Addressing a variety of topics, Kernel Smoothing: Principles, Methods and Applications offers a user-friendly presentation of the mathematical content so that the reader can directly implement the formulas using any appropriate software. The overall aim of the book is to describe the methods and their theoretical backgrounds, while maintaining an analytically simple approach and including motivating examples—making it extremely useful in many sciences such as geophysics, climate research, forestry, ecology, and other natural and life sciences, as well as in finance, sociology, and engineering."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  kernel_estimators  smoothing  regression  statistics 
9 days ago
Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems | Wiley Online Books
"Written by a team of international experts, Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems presents a unique point of view on the mathematical theory of extremes and on its applications in the natural and social sciences. Featuring an interdisciplinary approach to new concepts in pure and applied mathematical research, the book skillfully combines the areas of statistical mechanics, probability theory, measure theory, dynamical systems, statistical inference, geophysics, and software application. Emphasizing the statistical mechanical point of view, the book introduces robust theoretical embedding for the application of extreme value theory in dynamical systems. Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems also features:
"• A careful examination of how a dynamical system can serve as a generator of stochastic processes
"• Discussions on the applications of statistical inference in the theoretical and heuristic use of extremes
"• Several examples of analysis of extremes in a physical and geophysical context
"• A final summary of the main results presented along with a guide to future research projects
"• An appendix with software in Matlab® programming language to help readers to develop further understanding of the presented concepts
"Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems is ideal for academics and practitioners in pure and applied mathematics, probability theory, statistics, chaos, theoretical and applied dynamical systems, statistical mechanics, geophysical fluid dynamics, geosciences and complexity science."
to:NB  books:noted  extreme_values  dynamical_systems  time_series  statistical_inference_for_stochastic_processes  statistics  downloaded  recurrence_times 
9 days ago
Youth-Parent Socialization Panel Study, 1965-1997: Four Waves Combined
"The Youth-Parent Socialization Panel Study is a series of surveys designed to assess political continuity and change across time for biologically-related generations and to gauge the impact of life-stage events and historical trends on the behaviors and attitudes of respondents. A national sample of high school seniors and their parents was first surveyed in 1965. Subsequent surveys of the same individuals were conducted in 1973, 1982, and 1997. This data collection combines all four waves of youth data for the study. The general objective of the data collection was to study the dynamics of political attitudes and behaviors by obtaining data on the same individuals as they aged from approximately 18 years of age in 1965 to 50 years of age in 1997. Especially when combined with other elements of the study as released in other ICPSR collections in the Youth Studies Series, this data collection facilitates the analysis of generational, life cycle, and historical effects and political influences on relationships within the family. This data collection also has several distinctive properties. First, it is a longitudinal study of a particular cohort, a national sample from the graduating high school class of 1965. Second, it captures the respondents at key points in their life stages -- at ages 18, 26, 35, and 50. Third, the dataset contains many replicated measures over time as well as some measures unique to each data point. Fourth, there is detailed information about the respondents' life histories. Background variables include age, sex, religious orientation, level of religious participation, marital status, ethnicity, educational status and background, place of residence, family income, and employment status."

--- Used in Rochon's book about value change, in a way which would make it a good case study for propensity-score matching (which Rochon did _not_ do, confounding his inferences). Query, can I get access via CMU, or are we not part of the consortium?
data_sets  us_politics  public_opinion  to_teach:undergrad-ADA 
10 days ago
Tracing the Life Cycle of Ideas in the Humanities and Social Sciences | SpringerLink
"This book demonstrates how quantitative methods for text analysis can successfully combine with qualitative methods in the study of different disciplines of the Humanities and Social Sciences (HSS). The book focuses on learning about the evolution of ideas of HSS disciplines through a distant reading of the contents conveyed by scientific literature, in order to retrieve the most relevant topics being debated over time. Quantitative methods, statistical techniques and software packages are used to identify and study the main subject matters of a discipline from raw textual data, both in the past and today. The book also deals with the concept of quality of life of words and aims to foster a discussion about the life cycle of scientific ideas.
"Textual data retrieved from large corpora pose interesting challenges for any data analysis method and today represent a growing area of research in many fields. New problems emerge from the growing availability of large databases and new methods are needed to retrieve significant information from those large information sources. This book can be used to explain how quantitative methods can be part of the research instrumentation and the "toolbox" of scholars of Humanities and Social Sciences. The book contains numerous examples and a description of the main methods in use, with references to literature and available software. Most of the chapters of the book have been written in a non-technical language for HSS researchers without mathematical, computer or statistical backgrounds."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  epidemiology_of_representations  text_mining  history_of_ideas  history_of_science 
10 days ago
Probabilistic Theory of Mean Field Games with Applications I | SpringerLink
"This two-volume book offers a comprehensive treatment of the probabilistic approach to mean field game models and their applications. The book is self-contained in nature and includes original material and applications with explicit examples throughout, including numerical solutions.
"Volume I of the book is entirely devoted to the theory of mean field games without a common noise. The first half of the volume provides a self-contained introduction to mean field games, starting from concrete illustrations of games with a finite number of players, and ending with ready-for-use solvability results. Readers are provided with the tools necessary for the solution of forward-backward stochastic differential equations of the McKean-Vlasov type at the core of the probabilistic approach. The second half of this volume focuses on the main principles of analysis on the Wasserstein space. It includes Lions' approach to the Wasserstein differential calculus, and the applications of its results to the analysis of stochastic mean field control problems. 
"Together, both Volume I and Volume II will greatly benefit mathematical graduate students and researchers interested in mean field games. The authors provide a detailed road map through the book allowing different access points for different readers and building up the level of technical detail. The accessible approach and overview will allow interested researchers in the applied sciences to obtain a clear overview of the state of the art in mean field games."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  game_theory  re:do-institutions-evolve  stochastic_processes 
10 days ago
Ambit Stochastics | SpringerLink
"Drawing on advanced probability theory, Ambit Stochastics is used to model stochastic processes which depend on both time and space. This monograph, the first on the subject, provides a reference for this burgeoning field, complete with the applications that have driven its development.
"Unique to Ambit Stochastics are ambit sets, which allow the delimitation of space-time to a zone of interest, and ambit fields, which are particularly well-adapted to modelling stochastic volatility or intermittency. These attributes lend themselves notably to applications in the statistical theory of turbulence and financial econometrics. In addition to the theory and applications of Ambit Stochastics, the book also contains new theory on the simulation of ambit fields and a comprehensive stochastic integration theory for Volterra processes in a non-semimartingale context.
"Written by pioneers in the subject, this book will appeal to researchers and graduate students interested in empirical stochastic modelling."

--- From a quick glance, the "ambit" of a space-time point (x,t) consists of all the earlier posts (y, s) such that the field or noise value at (y,s) can influence the field value at (x,t); the fields are integrals over (possibly heavy-tailed and intermittent) noises, restricted to the ambit. This is of peculiar interest to me (https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0305160 and subsequent papers).
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  stochastic_processes  spatio-temporal_statistics  turbulence  barndorff-nielsen.ole  re:licors  to_teach:data_over_space_and_time 
10 days ago
Noise-Induced Phenomena in Slow-Fast Dynamical Systems | SpringerLink
"Stochastic differential equations play an increasingly important role in modeling the dynamics of a large variety of systems in the natural sciences, and in technological applications. This book is aimed at advanced undergraduate and graduate students, and researchers in mathematics, physics, the natural sciences, and engineering. It presents a new constructive approach to the quantitative description of solutions to systems of stochastic differential equations evolving on well-separated timescales. The method, which combines techniques from stochastic analysis and singular perturbation theory, allows the domains of concentration for typical sample paths to be determined, and provides precise estimates on the transition probabilities between these domains.
"In addition to the detailed presentation of the set-up and mathematical results, applications to problems in physics, biology, and climatology are discussed. The emphasis lies on noise-induced phenomena such as stochastic resonance, hysteresis, excitability, and the reduction of bifurcation delay."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  stochastic_differential_equations  macro_from_micro  stochastic_processes  re:do-institutions-evolve 
10 days ago
Model-Based Demography | SpringerLink
"Late in a career of more than sixty years, Thomas Burch, an internationally known social demographer, undertook a wide-ranging methodological critique of demography. This open access volume contains  a selection of resulting papers, some previously unpublished, some published but not readily accessible [from past meetings of The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and its research committees, or from other small conferences and seminars]. Rejecting the idea that demography is simply a branch of applied statistics, his work views it as an autonomous and complete scientific discipline. When viewed from the perspective of modern philosophy of science, specifically the semantic or model-based school, demography is a balanced discipline, with a rich body of techniques and data, but also with more and better theories than generally recognized. As demonstrated in this book, some demographic techniques can also be seen as theoretical models, and some substantive/behavioral models, commonly rejected as theory because of inconsistent observations, are now seen as valuable theoretical models, for example demographic transition theory.  This book shows how demography can build a strong theoretical edifice on its broad and deep empirical foundation by adoption of the model-based approach to science. But the full-fruits of this approach will require demographers to make greater use of computer modeling [both macro- and micro-simulation], in the statement and manipulation of theoretical ideas, as well as for numerical computation.
"This book is open access under a CC BY license."
to:NB  books:noted  demography  downloaded  philosophy_of_science  modeling 
10 days ago
Statistical Demography and Forecasting | SpringerLink
"Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S.
"For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included. Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory, and regression analysis is assumed."

--- Probably should've mined this for examples before assigning some of the problem sets...
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  statistics  demography  to_teach:data_over_space_and_time 
10 days ago
Applied Mathematical Demography | SpringerLink
"The third edition of this classic text maintains its focus on applications of demographic models, while extending its scope to matrix models for stage-classified populations. The authors first introduce the life table to describe age-specific mortality, and then use it to develop theory for stable populations and the rate of population increase. This theory is then revisited in the context of matrix models, for stage-classified as well as age-classified populations. Reproductive value and the stable equivalent population are introduced in both contexts, and Markov chain methods are presented to describe the movement of individuals through the life cycle. Applications of mathematical demography to population projection and forecasting, kinship, microdemography, heterogeneity, and multi-state models are considered.
"The new edition maintains and extends the book’s focus on the consequences of changes in the vital rates. Methods are presented for calculating the sensitivity and elasticity of population growth rate, life expectancy, stable stage distribution, and reproductive value, and for applying those results in comparative studies.
"Stage-classified models are important in both human demography and population ecology, and this edition features examples from both human and non-human populations. In short, this third edition enlarges considerably the scope and power of demography. It will be an essential resource for students and researchers in demography and in animal and plant population ecology."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  demography 
10 days ago
Demography Through Problems | SpringerLink
"The book that follows is an experiment in the teaching of population theory and analysis. A sequence of problems where each is a self-contained puzzle, and the successful solution of each which puts the student in a position to tackle the next, is a means of securing the active participation of the learner and so the mastery of a technical subject. How far our questions are the exciting puzzles at which we aimed, and how far the sequence constitutes a rounded course in demography, must be left to the user to judge. One test of a good problem is whether a solution, that may take hours of cogitation, is immediately recognizable once it comes to mind. While algebraic manipulation is required throughout, we have tried to emphasize problems in which there is some substantive point-a conclusion regarding population that can be put into words. Our title, Demography Through Problems, reflects our intention of leading the reader who will actively commit him-or herself through a sequence that will not only teach definitions-in itself a trivial matter-but sharpen intuition on the way that populations behave."
to:NB  books:noted  demography  downloaded 
10 days ago
Literary Coteries and the Making of Modern Print Culture by Betty A. Schellenberg
"Literary Coteries and the Making of Modern Print Culture offers the first study of manuscript-producing coteries as an integral element of eighteenth-century Britain's literary culture. As a corrective to literary histories assuming that the dominance of print meant the demise of a vital scribal culture, the book profiles four interrelated and influential coteries, focusing on each group's deployment of traditional scribal practices, on key individuals who served as bridges between networks, and on the aesthetic and cultural work performed by the group. The book also explores points of intersection between coteries and the print trade, whether in the form of individuals who straddled the two cultures; publishing events in which the two media regimes collaborated or came into conflict; literary conventions adapted from manuscript practice to serve the ends of print; or simply poetry hand-copied from magazines. Together, these instances demonstrate how scribal modes shaped modern literary production. This title is also available as Open Access."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  intellectuals  history  social_networks  social_life_of_the_mind  printing_press_as_an_agent_of_change 
11 days ago
Pipe Dreams by Maya K. Peterson
"The drying up of the Aral Sea - a major environmental catastrophe of the late twentieth century - is deeply rooted in the dreams of the irrigation age of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, a time when engineers, scientists, politicians, and entrepreneurs around the world united in the belief that universal scientific knowledge, together with modern technologies, could be used to transform large areas of the planet from 'wasteland' into productive agricultural land. Though ostensibly about bringing modernity, progress, and prosperity to the deserts, the transformation of Central Asia's landscapes through tsarist- and Soviet-era hydraulic projects bore the hallmarks of a colonial experiment. Examining how both regimes used irrigation-age fantasies of bringing the deserts to life as a means of claiming legitimacy in Central Asia, Maya K. Peterson brings a fresh perspective to the history of Russia's conquest and rule of Central Asia."
to:NB  books:noted  central_asia  ussr  imperialism  environmental_management  aral_sea 
11 days ago
Knowledge and Power in Prehistoric Societies by Lynne Kelly
"In this book, Lynne Kelly explores the role of formal knowledge systems in small-scale oral cultures in both historic and archaeological contexts. In the first part, she examines knowledge systems within historically recorded oral cultures, showing how the link between power and the control of knowledge is established. Analyzing the material mnemonic devices used by documented oral cultures, she demonstrates how early societies maintained a vast corpus of pragmatic information concerning animal behavior, plant properties, navigation, astronomy, genealogies, laws and trade agreements, among other matters. In the second part Kelly turns to the archaeological record of three sites, Chaco Canyon, Poverty Point and Stonehenge, offering new insights into the purpose of the monuments and associated decorated objects. This book demonstrates how an understanding of rational intellect, pragmatic knowledge and mnemonic technologies in prehistoric societies offers a new tool for analysis of monumental structures built by non-literate cultures."
to:NB  books:noted  archaeology  anthropology  science_as_a_social_process 
11 days ago
Critical Elitism by Alfred Moore
"Democracies have a problem with expertise. Expert knowledge both mediates and facilitates public apprehension of problems, yet it also threatens to exclude the public from consequential judgments and decisions located in technical domains. This book asks: how can we have inclusion without collapsing the very concept of expertise? How can public judgment be engaged in expert practices in a way that does not reduce to populism? Drawing on deliberative democratic theory and social studies of science, Critical Elitism argues that expert authority depends ultimately on the exercise of public judgment in a context in which there are live possibilities for protest, opposition and scrutiny. This account points to new ways of looking at the role of civil society, expert institutions, and democratic innovations in the constitution of expert authority within democratic systems. Using the example of climate science, Critical Elitism highlights not only the risks but also the benefits of contesting expertise."
to:NB  books:noted  democracy  expertise  re:democratic_cognition 
11 days ago
Oral Democracy by Paromita Sanyal
"Oral Democracy studies citizens' voices in civic and political deliberations in India's gram sabhas (village assemblies), the largest deliberative institution in human history. It analyses nearly three hundred transcripts of gram sabhas, sampled within the framework of a natural experiment, allowing the authors to study how state policy affects the quality of discourse, citizens' discursive performances and state enactments embodied by elected leaders and public officials. By drawing out the varieties of speech apparent in citizen and state interactions, their analysis shows that citizens' oral participation in development and governance can be improved by strengthening deliberative spaces through policy. Even in conditions of high inequality and illiteracy, gram sabhas can create discursive equality by developing the 'oral competence' of citizens and establishing a space in which they can articulate their interests. The authors develop the concept of 'oral democracy' to aid the understanding of deliberative systems in non-Western and developing countries. This title is also available as Open Access."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  institutions  democracy  india  re:democratic_cognition 
11 days ago
Spatial Analysis for the Social Sciences by David Darmofal
"Many theories in the social sciences predict spatial dependence or the similarity of behaviors at neighboring locations. Spatial Analysis for the Social Sciences demonstrates how researchers can diagnose and model this spatial dependence and draw more valid inferences as a result. The book is structured around the well-known Galton's problem and presents a step-by-step guide to the application of spatial analysis. The book examines a variety of spatial diagnostics and models through a series of applied examples drawn from the social sciences. These include spatial lag models that capture behavioral diffusion between actors, spatial error models that account for spatial dependence in errors, and models that incorporate spatial heterogeneity in the effects of covariates. Spatial Analysis for the Social Sciences also examines advanced spatial models for time-series cross-sectional data, categorical and limited dependent variables, count data, and survival data."

--- If done well,. this'd be a great text for my space/time course, should I get a chance to re-teach it. Haven't had a chance to read it...
to:NB  books:noted  spatial_statistics  statistics  social_science_methodology  downloaded  to_teach:data_over_space_and_time 
11 days ago
Cognition and Intractability by Iris van Rooij
"Intractability is a growing concern across the cognitive sciences: while many models of cognition can describe and predict human behavior in the lab, it remains unclear how these models can scale to situations of real-world complexity. Cognition and Intractability is the first book to provide an accessible introduction to computational complexity analysis and its application to questions of intractability in cognitive science. Covering both classical and parameterized complexity analysis, it introduces the mathematical concepts and proof techniques that can be used to test one's intuition of (in)tractability. It also describes how these tools can be applied to cognitive modeling to deal with intractability, and its ramifications, in a systematic way. Aimed at students and researchers in philosophy, cognitive neuroscience, psychology, artificial intelligence, and linguistics who want to build a firm understanding of intractability and its implications in their modeling work, it is an ideal resource for teaching or self-study."
to:NB  books:noted  computational_complexity  cognitive_science  bounded_rationality 
11 days ago
Networks in Climate by Henk A. Dijkstra
"Over the last two decades the complex network paradigm has proven to be a fruitful tool for the investigation of complex systems in many areas of science; for example, the Internet, neural networks and social networks. This book provides an overview of applications of network theory to climate variability, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Indian Monsoon, presenting recent important results obtained with these techniques and showing their potential for further development and research. The book is aimed at researchers and graduate students in climate science. A basic background in physics and mathematics is required. Several of the methodologies presented here will also be valuable to a broader audience of those interested in network science, for example, from biomedicine, ecology and economics."
to:NB  books:noted  climatology  networks 
11 days ago
Postapocalyptic Fantasies in Antebellum American Literature by John Hay
"Even before the Civil War, American writers were imagining life after a massive global catastrophe. For many, the blank slate of the American continent was instead a wreckage-strewn wasteland, a new world in ruins. Bringing together epic and lyric poems, fictional tales, travel narratives, and scientific texts, Postapocalyptic Fantasies in Antebellum American Literature reveals that US authors who enthusiastically celebrated the myths of primeval wilderness and virgin land also frequently resorted to speculations about the annihilation of civilizations, past and future. By examining such postapocalyptic fantasies, this study recovers an antebellum rhetoric untethered to claims for historical exceptionalism - a patriotic rhetoric that celebrates America while denying the United States a unique position outside of world history. As the scientific field of natural history produced new theories regarding biological extinction, geological transformation, and environmental collapse, American writers responded with wild visions of the ancient past and the distant future."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  literary_history  american_history  post-apocalyptic  science_fiction  something_about_america 
11 days ago
The Aztec Economic World by Kenneth G. Hirth
"This study explores the organization, scale, complexity, and integration of Aztec commerce across Mesoamerica at Spanish contact. The aims of the book are threefold. The first is to construct an in-depth understanding of the economic organization of precolumbian Aztec society and how it developed in the way that it did. The second is to explore the livelihoods of the individuals who bought, sold, and moved goods across a cultural landscape that lacked both navigable rivers and animal transport. Finally, this study models Aztec economy in a way that facilitates its comparison to other ancient and premodern societies around the world.  What makes the Aztec economy unique is that it developed one of the most sophisticated market economies in the ancient world in a society with one of the worse transportation systems. This is the first book to provide an updated and comprehensive view of the Aztec economy in thirty years."
to:NB  books:noted  native_american_history  aztecs  economic_history  economics 
11 days ago
The Power of Ritual in Prehistory by Brian Hayden
"The Power of Ritual in Prehistory is the first book in nearly a century to deal with traditional secret societies from a comparative perspective and the first from an archaeological viewpoint. Providing a clear definition, as well as the material signatures, of ethnographic secret societies, Brian Hayden demonstrates how they worked, what motivated their organizers, and what tactics they used to obtain what they wanted. He shows that far from working for the welfare of their communities, traditional secret societies emerged as predatory organizations operated for the benefit of their own members. Moreover, and contrary to the prevailing ideas that prehistoric rituals were used to integrate communities, Hayden demonstrates how traditional secret societies created divisiveness and inequalities. They were one of the key tools for increasing political control leading to chiefdoms, states, and world religions. Hayden's conclusions will be eye-opening, not only for archaeologists, but also for anthropologists, political scientists, and scholars of religion."
to:NB  books:noted  initiation  initiation_as_hazing  anthropology  inequality  ritual  institutions  religion 
11 days ago
Economics of Agglomeration by Masahisa Fujita
"Economic activities are not concentrated on the head of a pin, nor are they spread evenly over a featureless plane. On the contrary, they are distributed very unequally across locations, regions and countries. Even though economic activities are, to some extent, spatially concentrated because of natural features, economic mechanisms that rely on the trade-off between various forms of increasing returns and different types of mobility costs are more fundamental. This book is a study of the economic reasons for the existence of a large variety of agglomerations arising from the global to the local. This second edition combines a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of spatial economics and an in-depth discussion of the most recent theoretical developments in new economic geography and urban economics. It aims to highlight several of the major economic trends observed in modern societies. The first edition was the winner of the 2004 William Alonso Memorial Prize for Innovative Work in Regional Science."

--- For ZMS's birthday?
to:NB  books:noted  cities  economics  economic_geography  market_failures_in_everything 
11 days ago
Foundations of Agnostic Statistics by Peter M. Aronow
"Reflecting a sea change in how empirical research has been conducted over the past three decades, Foundations of Agnostic Statistics presents an innovative treatment of modern statistical theory for the social and health sciences. This book develops the fundamentals of what the authors call agnostic statistics, which considers what can be learned about the world without assuming that there exists a simple generative model that can be known to be true. Aronow and Miller provide the foundations for statistical inference for researchers unwilling to make assumptions beyond what they or their audience would find credible. Building from first principles, the book covers topics including estimation theory, regression, maximum likelihood, missing data, and causal inference. Using these principles, readers will be able to formally articulate their targets of inquiry, distinguish substantive assumptions from statistical assumptions, and ultimately engage in cutting-edge quantitative empirical research that contributes to human knowledge."
to:NB  books:noted  books:coveted  statistics  misspecification  causal_inference  aronow.peter 
11 days ago
An Introduction to the Advanced Theory and Practice of Nonparametric Econometrics by Jeffrey S. Racine
"Interest in nonparametric methodology has grown considerably over the past few decades, stemming in part from vast improvements in computer hardware and the availability of new software that allows practitioners to take full advantage of these numerically intensive methods. This book is written for advanced undergraduate students, intermediate graduate students, and faculty, and provides a complete teaching and learning course at a more accessible level of theoretical rigor than Racine's earlier book co-authored with Qi Li, Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice (2007). The open source R platform for statistical computing and graphics is used throughout in conjunction with the R package np. Recent developments in reproducible research is emphasized throughout with appendices devoted to helping the reader get up to speed with R, R Markdown, TeX and Git."

--- Ooh.
to:NB  books:noted  books:coveted  econometrics  nonparametrics  statistics  racine.jeffrey  R 
11 days ago
Robustness Tests for Quantitative Research by Eric Neumayer
"The uncertainty that researchers face in specifying their estimation model threatens the validity of their inferences. In regression analyses of observational data, the 'true model' remains unknown, and researchers face a choice between plausible alternative specifications. Robustness testing allows researchers to explore the stability of their main estimates to plausible variations in model specifications. This highly accessible book presents the logic of robustness testing, provides an operational definition of robustness that can be applied in all quantitative research, and introduces readers to diverse types of robustness tests. Focusing on each dimension of model uncertainty in separate chapters, the authors provide a systematic overview of existing tests and develop many new ones. Whether it be uncertainty about the population or sample, measurement, the set of explanatory variables and their functional form, causal or temporal heterogeneity, or effect dynamics or spatial dependence, this book provides guidance and offers tests that researchers from across the social sciences can employ in their own research."
to:NB  books:noted  statistics  model_checking  social_science_methodology 
11 days ago
Twenty Lectures on Algorithmic Game Theory by Tim Roughgarden
"Computer science and economics have engaged in a lively interaction over the past fifteen years, resulting in the new field of algorithmic game theory. Many problems that are central to modern computer science, ranging from resource allocation in large networks to online advertising, involve interactions between multiple self-interested parties. Economics and game theory offer a host of useful models and definitions to reason about such problems. The flow of ideas also travels in the other direction, and concepts from computer science are increasingly important in economics. This book grew out of the author's Stanford University course on algorithmic game theory, and aims to give students and other newcomers a quick and accessible introduction to many of the most important concepts in the field. The book also includes case studies on online advertising, wireless spectrum auctions, kidney exchange, and network management."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  game_theory  theoretical_computer_science  re:computational_complexity_of_communism 
11 days ago
Inequalities for Graph Eigenvalues by Zoran Stanić
"Written for mathematicians working with the theory of graph spectra, this book explores more than 400 inequalities for eigenvalues of the six matrices associated with finite simple graphs: the adjacency matrix, Laplacian matrix, signless Laplacian matrix, normalized Laplacian matrix, Seidel matrix, and distance matrix. The book begins with a brief survey of the main results and selected applications to related topics, including chemistry, physics, biology, computer science, and control theory. The author then proceeds to detail proofs, discussions, comparisons, examples, and exercises. Each chapter ends with a brief survey of further results. The author also points to open problems and gives ideas for further reading."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  spectral_methods  graph_theory  mathematics 
11 days ago
Elements of Automata Theory by Jacques Sakarovitch
"Automata theory lies at the foundation of computer science, and is vital to a theoretical understanding of how computers work and what constitutes formal methods. This treatise gives a rigorous account of the topic and illuminates its real meaning by looking at the subject in a variety of ways. The first part of the book is organised around notions of rationality and recognisability. The second part deals with relations between words realised by finite automata, which not only exemplifies the automata theory but also illustrates the variety of its methods and its fields of application. Many exercises are included, ranging from those that test the reader, to those that are technical results, to those that extend ideas presented in the text. Solutions or answers to many of these are included in the book."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  automata_theory 
11 days ago
Computational Modeling of Cognition and Behavior by Simon Farrell
"Computational modeling is now ubiquitous in psychology, and researchers who are not modelers may find it increasingly difficult to follow the theoretical developments in their field. This book presents an integrated framework for the development and application of models in psychology and related disciplines. Researchers and students are given the knowledge and tools to interpret models published in their area, as well as to develop, fit, and test their own models. Both the development of models and key features of any model are covered, as are the applications of models in a variety of domains across the behavioural sciences. A number of chapters are devoted to fitting models using maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, including fitting hierarchical and mixture models. Model comparison is described as a core philosophy of scientific inference, and the use of models to understand theories and advance scientific discourse is explained."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  cognitive_science 
11 days ago
Confronting the Internet's Dark Side by Raphael Cohen-Almagor
"Terrorism, cyberbullying, child pornography, hate speech, cybercrime: along with unprecedented advancements in productivity and engagement, the Internet has ushered in a space for violent, hateful, and antisocial behavior. How do we, as individuals and as a society, protect against dangerous expressions online? Confronting the Internet's Dark Side is the first book on social responsibility on the Internet. It aims to strike a balance between the free speech principle and the responsibilities of the individual, corporation, state, and the international community. This book brings a global perspective to the analysis of some of the most troubling uses of the Internet. It urges net users, ISPs, and liberal democracies to weigh freedom and security, finding the golden mean between unlimited license and moral responsibility. This judgment is necessary to uphold the very liberal democratic values that gave rise to the Internet and that are threatened by an unbridled use of technology."
to:NB  books:noted  downloaded  internet  networked_life  freedom_of_expression  re:actually-dr-internet-is-the-name-of-the-monsters-creator 
11 days ago
Nonequilibrium Statistical Physics (the book and beyond)
"Statistical mechanics has been proven to be successful at describing physical systems at thermodynamic equilibrium. Since most natural phenomena occur in nonequilibrium conditions, the present challenge is to find suitable physical approaches for such conditions: this book provides a pedagogical pathway that explores various perspectives. The use of clear language, and explanatory figures and diagrams to describe models, simulations and experimental findings makes it a valuable resource for undergraduate and graduate students, and also for lecturers organizing teaching at varying levels of experience in the field. Written in three parts, it covers basic and traditional concepts of nonequilibrium physics, modern aspects concerning nonequilibrium phase transitions, and application-orientated topics from a modern perspective. A broad range of topics is covered, including Langevin equations, Levy processes, directed percolation, kinetic roughening and pattern formation."
to:NB  books:noted  statistical_mechanics  non-equilibrium  downloaded 
11 days ago
SelfControl
Have I really never bookmarked this before?
essentials  networked_life 
11 days ago
How a Feel-Good AI Story Went Wrong in Flint - The Atlantic
Interesting (and depressing) in so many ways. (The least of which is grist for my "AI is really ML, and ML is really regression" mill.)
classifiers  data_mining  our_decrepit_institutions  infrastructure  public_policy  have_read  via:?  to_teach:data-mining  to_teach:data_over_space_and_time 
11 days ago
[1612.07545] A Revisit of Hashing Algorithms for Approximate Nearest Neighbor Search
"Approximate Nearest Neighbor Search (ANNS) is a fundamental problem in many areas of machine learning and data mining. During the past decade, numerous hashing algorithms are proposed to solve this problem. Every proposed algorithm claims outperform other state-of-the-art hashing methods. However, the evaluation of these hashing papers was not thorough enough, and those claims should be re-examined. The ultimate goal of an ANNS method is returning the most accurate answers (nearest neighbors) in the shortest time. If implemented correctly, almost all the hashing methods will have their performance improved as the code length increases. However, many existing hashing papers only report the performance with the code length shorter than 128. In this paper, we carefully revisit the problem of search with a hash index, and analyze the pros and cons of two popular hash index search procedures. Then we proposed a very simple but effective two level index structures and make a thorough comparison of eleven popular hashing algorithms. Surprisingly, the random-projection-based Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) is the best performed algorithm, which is in contradiction to the claims in all the other ten hashing papers. Despite the extreme simplicity of random-projection-based LSH, our results show that the capability of this algorithm has been far underestimated. For the sake of reproducibility, all the codes used in the paper are released on GitHub, which can be used as a testing platform for a fair comparison between various hashing algorithms."
to:NB  data_mining  approximation  nearest_neighbors  locality-sensitive_hashing  hashing  have_read  via:vaguery  random_projections  k-means  databases 
11 days ago
Public reason confucianism democratic perfectionism and constitutionalism east asia | Political theory | Cambridge University Press
"Recent proposals concerning Confucian meritocratic perfectionism have justified Confucian perfectionism in terms of political meritocracy. In contrast, 'Confucian democratic perfectionism' is a form of comprehensive Confucian perfectionism that can accommodate a plurality of values in civil society. It is also fully compatible with core values of democracy such as popular sovereignty, political equality, and the right to political participation. Sungmoon Kim presents 'public reason Confucianism' as the most attractive option for contemporary East Asian societies that are historically and culturally Confucian. Public reason Confucianism is a particular style of Confucian democratic perfectionism in which comprehensive Confucianism is connected with perfectionism via a distinctive form of public reason. It calls for an active role for the democratic state in promoting a Confucian conception of the good life, at the heart of which are such core Confucian values as filial piety and ritual propriety."
to:NB  political_philosophy  moral_philosophy  confucianism  democracy 
12 days ago
What's Wrong With Morality? - Paperback - C. Daniel Batson - Oxford University Press
"Most works on moral psychology direct our attention to the positive role morality plays for us as individuals, as a society, even as a species. In What's Wrong with Morality?, C. Daniel Batson takes a different approach: he looks at morality as a problem. The problem is not that it is wrong to be moral, but that our morality often fails to produce these intended results. Why? Some experts believe the answer lies in lack of character. Others say we are victims of poor judgment. If we could but discern what is morally right, whether through logical analysis and discourse, through tuned intuition and a keen moral sense, or through feeling and sentiment, we would act accordingly. Implicit in these different views is the assumption that if we grow up properly, if we can think and feel as we should, and if we can keep a firm hand on the tiller through the storms of circumstance, all will be well. We can realize our moral potential.
"Many of our best writers of fiction are less optimistic. Astute observers of the human condition like Austen, Balzac, Dickens, Dostoyevsky, Eliot, Tolstoy, and Twain suggest our moral psychology is more complex. These writers encourage us to look more closely at our motives, emotions, and values, at what we really care about in the moral domain. In this volume, Batson examines this issue from a social-psychological perspective. Drawing on research suggesting our moral life is fertile ground for rationalization and deception, including self-deception, Batson offers a hard-nosed analysis of morality and its limitations in this expertly written book."

--- This seems like a potentially interesting secular take on original sin, and the total depravity of the natural will.

--- ETA: NDPR discussion (https://ndpr.nd.edu/news/whats-wrong-with-morality-a-social-psychological-perspective/) makes it sound like it's probably not worth _my_ time.
to:NB  books:noted  moral_psychology 
12 days ago
Fauvelle, F.: The Golden Rhinoceros: Histories of the African Middle Ages (Hardcover and eBook) | Princeton University Press
"From the birth of Islam in the seventh century to the voyages of European exploration in the fifteenth, Africa was at the center of a vibrant exchange of goods and ideas. It was an African golden age in which places like Ghana, Nubia, and Zimbabwe became the crossroads of civilizations, and where African royals, thinkers, and artists played celebrated roles in the globalized world of the Middle Ages. The Golden Rhinoceros brings this unsung era marvelously to life, taking readers from the Sahara and the Nile River Valley to the Ethiopian highlands and southern Africa.
"Drawing on fragmented written sources as well as his many years of experience as an archaeologist, François-Xavier Fauvelle painstakingly reconstructs an African past that is too often denied its place in history—but no longer. He looks at ruined cities found in the mangrove, exquisite pieces of art, rare artifacts like the golden rhinoceros of Mapungubwe, ancient maps, and accounts left by geographers and travelers—remarkable discoveries that shed critical light on political and architectural achievements, trade, religious beliefs, diplomatic episodes, and individual lives.
"A book that finally recognizes Africa’s important role in the Middle Ages, The Golden Rhinoceros also provides a window into the historian’s craft. Fauvelle carefully pieces together the written and archaeological evidence to tell an unforgettable story that is at once sensitive to Africa’s rich social diversity and alert to the trajectories that connected Africa with the wider Muslim and Christian worlds."
to:NB  books:noted  africa  medieval_eurasian_history  world_history 
12 days ago
Quiggin, J.: Economics in Two Lessons: Why Markets Work So Well, and Why They Can Fail So Badly (Hardcover and eBook) | Princeton University Press
"Since 1946, Henry Hazlitt’s bestselling Economics in One Lesson has popularized the belief that economics can be boiled down to one simple lesson: market prices represent the true cost of everything. But one-lesson economics tells only half the story. It can explain why markets often work so well, but it can’t explain why they often fail so badly—or what we should do when they stumble. As Nobel Prize–winning economist Paul Samuelson quipped, “When someone preaches ‘Economics in one lesson,’ I advise: Go back for the second lesson.” In Economics in Two Lessons, John Quiggin teaches both lessons, offering a masterful introduction to the key ideas behind the successes—and failures—of free markets.
"Economics in Two Lessons explains why market prices often fail to reflect the full cost of our choices to society as a whole. For example, every time we drive a car, fly in a plane, or flick a light switch, we contribute to global warming. But, in the absence of a price on carbon emissions, the costs of our actions are borne by everyone else. In such cases, government action is needed to achieve better outcomes.
"Two-lesson economics means giving up the dogmatism of laissez-faire as well as the reflexive assumption that any economic problem can be solved by government action, since the right answer often involves a mixture of market forces and government policy. But the payoff is huge: understanding how markets actually work—and what to do when they don’t."
to:NB  books:noted  economics  popular_social_science 
12 days ago
Schaub, J. and Vergnaud, L.: Race Is about Politics: Lessons from History (Hardcover) | Princeton University Press
"Racial divisions have returned to the forefront of politics in the United States and European societies, making it more important than ever to understand race and racism. But do we? In this original and provocative book, acclaimed historian Jean-Frédéric Schaub shows that we don't—and that we need to rethink the widespread assumption that racism is essentially a modern form of discrimination based on skin color and other visible differences. On the contrary, Schaub argues that to understand racism we must look at historical episodes of collective discrimination where there was no visible difference between people. Built around notions of identity and otherness, race is above all a political tool that must be understood in the context of its historical origins.
"Although scholars agree that races don't exist except as ideological constructions, they disagree about when these ideologies emerged. Drawing on historical research from the early modern period to today, Schaub makes the case that the key turning point in the political history of race in the West occurred not with the Atlantic slave trade and American slavery, as many historians have argued, but much earlier, in fifteenth-century Spain and Portugal, with the racialization of Christians of Jewish and Muslim origin. These Christians were discriminated against under the new idea that they had negative social and moral traits that were passed from generation to generation through blood, semen, or milk—an idea whose legacy has persisted through the age of empires to today."
to:NB  books:noted  racism  history_of_ideas  early_modern_european_history 
12 days ago
Allesina, S. and Wilmes, M.: Computing Skills for Biologists: A Toolbox (Hardcover, Paperback and eBook) | Princeton University Press
"While biological data continues to grow exponentially in size and quality, many of today’s biologists are not trained adequately in the computing skills necessary for leveraging this information deluge. In Computing Skills for Biologists, Stefano Allesina and Madlen Wilmes present a valuable toolbox for the effective analysis of biological data.
"Based on the authors’ experiences teaching scientific computing at the University of Chicago, this textbook emphasizes the automation of repetitive tasks and the construction of pipelines for data organization, analysis, visualization, and publication. Stressing practice rather than theory, the book’s examples and exercises are drawn from actual biological data and solve cogent problems spanning the entire breadth of biological disciplines, including ecology, genetics, microbiology, and molecular biology. Beginners will benefit from the many examples explained step-by-step, while more seasoned researchers will learn how to combine tools to make biological data analysis robust and reproducible. The book uses free software and code that can be run on any platform.
"Computing Skills for Biologists is ideal for scientists wanting to improve their technical skills and instructors looking to teach the main computing tools essential for biology research in the twenty-first century."
to:NB  books:noted  scientific_computing  R  to_teach:statcomp 
12 days ago
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