asterisk2a + trichet   62

Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann - Brexit is no excuse to loosen EU budget rules
Reuters report that this puts Weidmann at odds with German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who has called for Europe's "Stability and Growth Pact" to be boosted for more growth.
So, we've got a politician wanting to spend more.
And the head of the Buba saying "No!"

Same old :-D //&!!/germany-will-stick-to-balanced-budget-report-20160701
lost  decade  Brexit  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  BuBa  Bundesbank  ECB  MarioDraghi  trichet  Angela  Merkel  austerity  budget  deficit  Germany  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  liquidity  trap  Mark  Blyth  economic  history  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  inflation  expectations  recovery  Jens  Weidmann  monetary  policy  global  economy  Schwarze  Null  Exportweltmeister  Beton  Gold  Betongold  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Richard  Koo  European  Union  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  non-performing  loan  underinvestment 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Gordon Brown joins asset manager Pimco as adviser - BBC News
[ influence & network ] Pimco said it had formed a five-strong group of "world-renowned experts on economic and political issues". The other members include former US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, and Jean-Claude Trichet, former president of the European Central Bank. A spokesman for Mr Brown said he was taking on "a minor advisory role" and would not financially benefit. The spokesman added: "Any money goes to the office of Gordon and Sarah Brown to support their charitable and public service work." The advisory board will meet several times a year.
PIMCO  1%  Ben  Bernanke  trichet  GordonBrown  revolving  door 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
The new European Union | Credit Writedowns
[ EU banking system was too big to bail in case Greece and else would default even in parts on some of its debt and or make no or delay repayment with interest in full ] In conclusion, the conditions asked of Greece are not likely to be met, because they cannot be met. Greece will be blamed for not living up to its commitments, as it has been this time around. Yet, somehow, the notion of asking for the impossible from a country that has no choice but to sign is fundamentally perverse. [...] The mistake was to break the no-bailout clause that was designed to make sure the Eurozone would not find itself in this position. For selfish reasons (i.e. preventing a bank crisis in Europe and the US), Greece was convinced to accept the first bailout in 2010.
Greece  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  investment  banking  retail  banking  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  European  Union  Positioning  ECB  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  crony  capitalism  corporate  scandal  austerity  accounting  scandal  bailout  bail-in  Cyprus  of  Cyprus  deposit  haircut  deposit  levy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Basel3  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  GFC  recovery  Debt  Super  Cycle  Privatisation  ideology  dogma  PIIGSFB  PIGS  PIIGS  France  Germany  Bundesbank  trichet  Jens  Weidmann  Angela  Merkel  Peer  Steinbrück  corruption  blackmail  josefackermann  ackermann  Deutsche  subsidies  subsidizing  Mark  Blyth  social  contract  social  tension  social  cohesion  constituency  Nationalizing  badbank  badbanks  restructuring  monetary 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Gregor Gysi, DIE LINKE: »Sie wollen die linke Regierung in Griechenland beseitigen« - YouTube
[ "Alternativlos" & 'Jeder fuer sich selbst.' ] Die Rettungspakete galten nie den Bürgerinnen und Bürgern, sondern immer den Banken. Auch bei uns wurden 480 Milliarden Euro binnen einer Woche für die Rettung der Banken beschlossen. Wenn man mal 1 Million Euro für einen kulturellen oder sozialen Zweck braucht, dann bekommt man ein Nein, aber bei den Banken gibt es immer nur ein Ja. [...] Ich habe Ihnen zugehört, Frau Bundeskanzlerin. Ihre Rede kann ich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Die griechische Regierung hat alles falsch gemacht, und Sie, Herr Schäuble und die europäischen Institutionen, also der Internationale Währungsfonds, die Europäische Kommission und die Europäische Zentralbank, haben alles richtig gemacht. // via
GroKo  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  bailout  Grexit  PIGS  PIIGS  EFSF  EFSM  ESM  IMF  Germany  Leadership  austerity  ideology  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Jean-Claude  Juncker  zombie  banks  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  democracy  No  Representation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  European  History  Rechtsruck  propaganda  manufactured  consent  Sigmar  Gabriel  solidarity  Gesellschaft  Lügenpresse  investigative  journalism  journalismus  journalism  Syriza  political  economy  political  theory  France  economic  election  campaign  promises  Protest  Partei  Protest  Party  Podemos  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  hartz-iv  welfare  state  Public  Services  Social  Services  fairness  Super  Rich  1%  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  sovereignty  Troika  corporate  state  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  poverty  Gini  coefficient  mobility  UK  ChristineLagarde  political  science  political  error  political  folly  PR  relations  spin  doctor  banking  transferunion  currency  monetary  Eurobond  ECB  MarioDraghi  trichet  compromise  Politics 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Gross Says Low Quality of Debt Threatens Monetary System - Bloomberg
Bill Gross said the lower quality of sovereign debt represents a threat to the global monetary system.
Investors should favor debt of nations such as the U.S., Mexico and Brazil, and emphasize intermediate maturities over the next few years, Gross said in his monthly investment outlook posted on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s website today. Equity investors should seek companies that produce stable cash flow and that are exposed to high growth markets.

“The global monetary system which has evolved and morphed over the past century but always in the direction of easier, cheaper and more abundant credit, may have reached a point at which it can no longer operate efficiently and equitably to promote growth,”

The U.S. remains the ‘liquidity haven and a quality haven for the rest of the world, This is one giant deleveraging moment that will likely continue for a number of years.”
WallStreet  fiscal  policy  inflation  reflation  debtoverhang  Monetary  System  currency-war  currency  debasement  MarioDraghi  UK  BOE  MervynKing  trichet  benbernake  alangreenspan  bubble  banking  deleveraging  policy  folly  policy  error  policy  LTRO  USA  Europe  greatrecession  GFC  PIMCO  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  QE  ZIRP 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo On The Three Problems With Bullish Speculation On Europe | ZeroHedge
Monetary policy is largely ineffective in this type of recession because those whose balance sheets are underwater are not interested in increasing their borrowings at any interest rate.

Three problems with bullish speculation on eurozone

But there are three problems with this view. First, the experiences of Japan, the US, and the UK show that monetary accommodation cannot stimulate the real economy when the private sector is seeking to minimize debt in spite of ultra-low interest rates during a balance sheet recession.
Second, fiscal stimulus is the only tool a government has for maintaining aggregate demand when monetary policy has lost its effectiveness. Yet Germany and other countries of the eurozone are actively pursuing fiscal retrenchment.
Third, eurozone members hope that structural reforms will lead to growth, but the examples of Japan and the US show that such policies will not have a positive impact on growth for at least five to ten years.
fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  MarioDraghi  mariomonti  trichet  ECB  FrancoisHollande  France  politics  Greece  angelamerkel  democracy  UK  USA  austerity  GFC  greatrecession  PIIGS  Europe  balance  sheet  recession  richardkoo 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
The Austerity Debacle. -
Last week the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a British think tank, released a startling chart comparing the current slump with past recessions and recoveries. It turns out that by one important measure — changes in real G.D.P. since the recession began — Britain is doing worse this time than it did during the Great Depression. Four years into the Depression, British G.D.P. had regained its previous peak; four years after the Great Recession began, Britain is nowhere close to regaining its lost ground.

Nor is Britain unique. Italy is also doing worse than it did in the 1930s — and with Spain clearly headed for a double-dip recession, that makes three of Europe’s big five economies members of the worse-than club. Yes, there are some caveats and complications. But this nonetheless represents a stunning failure of policy.
politics  paulsamuelson  davidcameron  trichet  economic-thought  folly  policy  Europe  greatrecession  GFC  greatdepression  2012  UK  paulkrugman  debate  austerity 
january 2012 by asterisk2a - Ein Desaster fr die EZB, Deutschland und Europa Global Markets
Nach Weber geht jetzt der zweite Deutsche. Und aus der Bundesbank ist zu hören, dass die deutsche Stimme in der EZB, anders als noch vor einem Jahr, inzwischen praktisch gar kein Gewicht mehr habe. Die Dünnhäutigkeit von EZB-Präsident Jean-Claude Trichet, wenn er auf die deutsche Kritik angesprochen wird, lässt erahnen, was hinter den Kulissen vor sich geht.
Die Investoren weltweit können diese Vorgänge nur mit einer Mischung aus Unverständnis und Entsetzen registrieren. Unverständnis deswegen, weil die deutsche Haltung zu den Anleihekäufen der EZB gerade im angelsächsischen Raum nur für wenige einsichtig ist. Zugleich aber Entsetzen, weil Deutschland doch als ökonomischer Anker der Euro-Zone gilt, als einziges Land, das noch Stabilität geben kann. Aber wie soll es Stabilität geben, wenn die Kommunikation zu den anderen Euroländern an einer ganz wichtigen Stelle – in der EZB – praktisch abgerissen ist?
trichet  ECB  2011 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
Trichet defends legacy at ECB, hits back at German criticism - YouTube
Sept. 8 - Jean-Claude Trichet forcefully defends his legacy at the ECB after being asked about criticism from German lawmakers over the ECB's bond-buying plan and suggestions Germany should return to the mark.
ECB  trichet  legacy  inflation  price  stability  2011  history  europe 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
Ben Bernanke realised printing yet more money would look desperate - Telegraph
The reality is QE has already done an awful lot of damage. America has expanded its base money supply three-fold in two and a half years – from 6pc to 18pc of national income. But even this jaw-dropping measure hasn't led to much of an expansion in monetary measures, such as M2 that include bank lending, precisely because the banks, for all the propaganda to the contrary, are still determined not to lend. They can make more money simply channelling QE money into stocks and other investments.Crucially, the banks also remain petrified of counter-party risk in the inter-bank market. Many of them, disgracefully, are still concealing vast sub-prime losses in off-balance-sheet vehicles. So they assume other banks are doing the same. Such mistrust between the banks – "we're lying, so they must be lying" – gums up the wheels of finance and starves even creditworthy firms of the funds needed to invest and create jobs.

zombi banks - same as japan +10 years ago.
transparency  Fed  benbernanke  2011  JacksonHole  QE  QE3  QE2  quantitative  easing  ZIRP  M2  moneysupply  monetary  policy  inflation  deflation  USA  UK  monetarybase  interbank  LIBOR  trust  confidence  toxicassets  subprime  zombi  banks  company  capitalism  fiatmoney  politics  barackobama  presidency  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  greatrecession  recovery  lostdecade  Japan  balancesheet  recession  richardkoo  deleveraging  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  centralbanks  trichet 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Relax, central banks can still save us - Telegraph
Military demobilisation allowed an instant cut in the US budget deficit. Today the rot is structural, a failure to stop health care and ageing costs spiralling out of control.

The eurozone obviously needs looser money. M3 broad money is stagnant and real M1 deposits have turned negative, even in Germany and Holland. Real M1 is contracting at an alarming pace in Italy. EMU growth has wilted, five countries are spinning towards default, and the banking system is seizing up. This cries out for a change of course, yet the European Central Bank is still tightening.
USA  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balancesheet  recession  greatrecession  GFC  depression  history  paulkrugman  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  monetary  policy  supply  M1  M3  velocity  money  creditcrunch  error  folly  benbernanke  trichet  2011  August  JacksonHole  lesson  greatdepression  fiscal  austerity  europe  UK  presidency  barackobama  davidcameron  angelamerkel  sarkozy  GeorgeOsborne 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Anleihenkufe: Euro-Retter riskieren Inflation - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Das nächste Tabu ist gebrochen. Die Europäische Zentralbank will jetzt auch italienische Staatsanleihen aufkaufen.  Mit dieser Politik nähert sie sich immer weiter ihrem amerikanischen Pendant, der Fed, an. Die Gefahr dabei: Die Inflation könnte steigen.

"Die Fed ist nicht mehr unabhängig", sagt Scheide. "Geldpolitik und Finanzpolitik sind in den USA vermischt worden. Das ist genau das, was Europa nicht will. Denn das würde das Vertrauen in die EZB untergraben."

 "Kauft die EZB Anleihen am Kapitalmarkt, so steigt die Basisgeldmenge"  "Sollte die Geldmenge letztlich in der Privatwirtschaft ankommen, würde sie sich, so lehrt die Erfahrung, früher oder später in steigenden Preisen entladen."
Noch ist dieser Effekt in Europa überschaubar. Zu gering war bisher das Volumen der Anleihenkäufe. Zudem hat die EZB stets versucht, das neu geschaffene Geld dem Markt an anderer Stelle wieder zu entziehen. Dieses "Neutralisieren" wird jedoch umso schwieriger, je größer die Beträge werden.
ECB  Fed  monetization  Sterilization  debt  sovereign  crisis  trichet  PIIGS  USA  EFSF  inflation  stability  credibility  Euro  Dollar  expectations  economics  monetary  policy  fiscal  folly  bailout  dilemma  QE  quantitative-easing 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Euphoria Wanes as Doubts Emerge? | zero hedge
"ad hoc" measures won't address the fundamental challenges arising from economic and political divergence within the bloc of 17 nations that share the euro:

"We are not closer to the end," said Mr. Jen, who was formerly Morgan Stanley's global head of currency research and has worked as an economist at the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Federal Reserve. Europe needs to become "a United States of Europe, rather than a collection of countries. Obviously, Europe is far from getting to that stage. This is why there will be problems for a long, long time in Europe."

The franc is the "only true safe haven in Europe,"

It is futile to fight these powerful, rotten interests; much better to understand them and try to protect yourself as best as possible as the world sinks deeper into hell.
Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  bubble  EMU  ECB  trichet  PIIGS  politics  fraud  accountability  lobby  lobbyist  Lobbying  wallstreet 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy and Spain must pray for a miracle - Telegraph
Italian 10-year bonds hit a post-EMU high of 5.3pc on Friday. This is not just a theoretical price: the Italian treasury has to roll over €69bn (£61bn) in August and September; it must tap the markets for €500bn before the end of 2013. The interest burden on Italy's €1.84 trillion stock of public debt is about to rise very fast.Spanish yields punched even higher, through the danger line of 5.7pc. The bond markets of both countries are replicating the pattern seen in Greece, Portugal, and Ireland before each spiraled into insolvency. And the virus is moving up the European map. French banks alone have $472bn (£394bn) of exposure to Italy and $175bn to Spain, according to the Bank for International Settlements."We believe the European sovereign crisis might be entering a new phase with contagion reaching the larger economies

M1 contracted  m-o-m over the past two months, with sharper declines in the periphery.  2.9% March 1.6% April 1.2% May. M3 grew +2.2 % months.
italy  spain  PIIGS  2011  sovereign  debt  crisis  EMU  europe  moneysupply  ECB  trichet 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Trichet: no to Tobin tax in Europe | City A.M.
EUROPEAN Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday made a passionate appeal to EU lawmakers to abandon plans for a devastating tax on financial transactions.
The European Commission wants to raise what it claims would be €200bn (£172bn) by imposing a 0.05 per cent fee on every type of financial transaction across the EU, to fund higher spending from 2014 onwards.
But in frank words to the EU parliament, Trichet warned that plans to levy such a Tobin tax on the financial services sector would cause lasting harm to Europe’s financial services hubs and would be regretted. He compared the controversial plan with “putting sand in the machine” of the financial system.
“I call for great, great prudence in introducing something which is not done at a global level,” Trichet said.
trichet  tobin-tax  2011 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Trichet Urges a New Vision of Europe as Greeks Protest Austerity Measures - Bloomberg
“These days, ‘Europe’ and the benefits it brings have come to be taken for granted,” Trichet said in a speech in Brussels last night, according to a text provided by the ECB. “Thanks to the success of European integration, the threat of war has become a memory of the past for many Europeans, in particular the younger generation. This makes it all the more urgent to develop a renewed vision of the kind of Europe we want and indeed need -- a vision that is easily understood and shared among European Union citizens.”

“Each generation needs to affirm its commitment to Europe,” Trichet said. “Revitalizing Europe means” ensuring that “the burdens of today’s adjustments are not shifted onto future generations.”
improve economic governance and strengthen rules to prevent unsound policies.
“In the short-term, we have to tackle the most urgent issues by implementing the structural adjustment programs that are currently underway,”
 establishment of a euro-area finance ministry.
trichet  europe  2011  outlook  europeanunion  future  speech  vision  politics 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Trichet Says Risk Signals Are Flashing Red as Debt Crisis Threatens Banks - Bloomberg
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said risk signals for financial stability in the euro area are flashing “red” as the debt crisis threatens to infect banks.

“On a personal basis I would say ‘yes, it is red’,” Trichet said late yesterday in Frankfurt after a meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board, referring to the group’s planned “dashboard” to monitor risks. “The message of the board is that” the link between debt problems and banks “is the most serious threat to financial stability in the European Union.”

BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, France’s biggest bank, and rivals Societe Generale (GLE) SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA) may have their credit ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service because of their Greek investments, the ratings company said on June 15. German banks could also be at risk from contagion, Fitch said last month.
PIIGS  sovereign  debt  trichet  ECB  ESRB  contagion  bank  solvency  capital  2011  exposure  libor  Greece  default  complexity  credit  creditcrunch  liquidity  interbank 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
European Central Bank risks being 'wiped out' by bail-outs - Telegraph
The European Central Bank is "looking increasingly vulnerable" and may face "hefty losses" as a result of propping up indebted eurozone countries, a leading think-tank has warned.

In a report published on Monday entitled A House Built on Sand?, Open Europe has calculated that the ECB has a total exposure of about €444bn (£397bn) to "struggling eurozone economies".The bank is now "23 to 24 times levered" as a result of bailing out Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.The London-based think tank argued: "Should the ECB see its assets fall by just 4.23pc in value . . . its entire capital base would be wiped out."Open Europe said: "Hefty losses for the ECB are no longer a remote risk." It added: "The ECB is ultimately underwritten by taxpayers which means there is a hidden – and potentially huge – cost of the eurozone crisis to taxpayers buried in the ECB's books."

"The ECB is backed by all the central banks in Europe, as well as taxpayers."
ECB  PIIGS  2011  trichet  EMU  sovereign  debt  crisis 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
EZB: Zweifelhafte Werte - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Nicht marktfähige Sicherheiten in Höhe von vielen Milliarden Euro
Die Dimension ist gewaltig: Für rund 480 Milliarden Euro hat die EZB strukturierte Wertpapiere, sogenannte Asset-Backed Securities (ABS), angenommen, weitere 360 Milliarden stehen als "nicht marktfähige Finanzinstrumente" in den Büchern.
Hinzu kommen noch Staatsanleihen in Höhe von vielen Milliarden Euro aus Portugal, Spanien, Griechenland und Irland, deren Wert zweifelhaft ist. Zwar werden diese auch nur zum deutlich geschrumpften Marktpreis bewertet und, abhängig vom Rating, mit einem Abschlag versehen. Doch bei diesem drücken die Notenbanken zur Not beide Augen zu.
"Es ist nicht auf Dauer unsere Aufgabe, insolvente Banken in insolventen Ländern zu retten", sagt ein besorgter Notenbanker bei der Bundesbank. Das gefährde den Ruf der EZB und am Ende auch den Euro.
ECB  trichet  2011 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Griechen-Umschuldung: Chef von Euro-Rettungsfonds unterstelltBanken Gier - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
"In den achtziger und neunziger Jahren haben die Banken für die Restrukturierung von Staatsschulden in Lateinamerika und Asien sehr hohe Honorare kassiert. Das würden sie in Europa gerne wiederholen."
Zwar würde eine Teilentschuldung des Landes einige Banken dazu zwingen, griechische Staatspapiere in ihrer Bilanz teilweise abzuschreiben, räumte Regling ein. Die dabei entstehenden Verluste würden sich aber "in Grenzen halten". Dagegen wären die mit einer Restrukturierung verbundenen Provisionen vielversprechend.Der Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), Jean-Claude Trichet, glaubt ebenfalls, dass die Banken den Schuldenschnitt Griechenlands bewusst herbeireden wollen. Nach "Handelsblatt"-Informationen hat Trichet die Finanzminister der Euro-Zone explizit davor gewarnt, sich im Hinblick auf Griechenland von den Instituten beeinflussen zu lassen.
EFSF  default  restructuring  greece  PIIGS  2011  trichet  banking  fees  ECB  europe  history 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
ECB Raising Rates May Turn Into Mistake Weakening Euro, Standard Life Says - Bloomberg
“The euro is a particularly risky currency at these levels because the increasingly restrictive policy and the financial conditions are not really appropriate,” Dickson said in an interview. A series of rate increases “is not appropriate for the conditions or economics of Europe as a whole,” he said.
Investment strategists at Standard Life, Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Scottish Widows Investment Partnership said last month that the biggest risk to markets was the possibility of policy makers getting decisions wrong. While ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said this month’s quarter-percentage-point increase in the main refinancing rate wasn’t necessarily the start of a series, colleagues signaled more are to come.
lostdecade  Japan  history  ECB  trichet  PIIGS  2011  divergence  germany  inflation  monetary  policy  EMU  Euro  europe 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Bonello Urges ECB Caution in Raising Rates as Most-Indebted Nations Suffer - Bloomberg
European Central Bank council member Michael Bonello said policy makers mustn’t raise interest rates at the expense of economic growth in debt-strapped euro- area nations if inflation expectations remain contained.

“The sovereign debt crisis is not yet behind us, and the banking sector in some countries -- which is a key to finding a solution to the crisis -- is still very fragile,” Bonello said. “We could still see an accentuation of the negative feedback loop from the financial sector to the real economy via the sovereign debt channel. The risks to growth could well be tilting to the downside.”


caution not to repeat same mistake Japan made.
“In uncertain circumstances like these, we need to balance doctrine with pragmatism,” Bonello, who heads the Central Bank of Malta, said in an April 15 interview in Valletta. “We must be careful not to make it more difficult for countries to grow out of their debt problem.”
ECB  europe  japan  lostdecade  history  recovery  PIIGS  comparison  sovereign  debt  risk  trichet  Axelweber  germany  inflation  monetary  policy  EMU  banking  contagion 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
ECB Officials Signal More Rate Increases This Year as Economy Strengthens - Bloomberg
“Economic growth is now self-sustained and risks are balanced,” Trichet said April 15 in Washington. Luxembourg’s Yves Mersch said in an interview yesterday that “the growth dynamic is carrying on and is firming” and that policy remains “very accommodative.”

The ECB this month kept its programs to provide unlimited liquidity to banks and purchase the bonds of debt-strapped governments.
ECB  2011  trichet 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
One size fits all Eurozone is set for total failure | City A.M.
DB analysts gave interest rate of 3.4% for Germany as reference. 

Given the fragile state of the region, why did Trichet hike rates? Simple: the ECB’s mission is to stop inflation. The March estimate showed Eurozone prices increasing by 2.6 per cent in March, well ahead of the ECB’s inflation target. The ECB was especially worried about evidence of upward pressure on German wages.
Germany’s economy is booming, with GDP increasing 3.5 per cent in 2010. Yet the Irish economy contracted by 1.6 per cent in the final quarter of 2010 and is forecast to grow by less than one per cent this year. The outlook for Greece is worse: GDP shrunk by 3.9 per cent last year. The situation in Portugal is grim. It makes sense to hike rates in Germany. But it makes no sense to do so in Portugal or Ireland. Because of the euro’s one size fits all interest rates, the periphery countries are being sacrificed.
trichet  ECB  2011  germany  ZIRP  EMU  divergence  faultlines 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Trichet, King Haunted by Bank of Japan's Lost Decade Interest-Rate Error - Bloomberg
European central bankers agitating for higher interest rates to quell inflation may be ignoring the lessons of Japan’s economic history.
As the European Central Bank and Bank of England consider tightening monetary policy, HSBC Holdings Plc and Fathom Financial Consulting warn officials risk misjudging the inflation threat and may end up hurting their recoveries. That’s what repeatedly happened in Japan in the past quarter century as policy makers constrained credit only to reverse within months when expansion faltered.
“The danger is of a policy mistake,” said Stephen King, HSBC’s London-based chief economist and a former U.K. Treasury official. “In an attempt to control inflation this year they could set the scene for more disappointing growth in the future as happened in Japan.”

Ben S. Bernanke, now chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said in 2003 Japan’s “performance is due almost entirely to a very poor monetary policy.”
Japan  history  ECB  policy  mistake  trichet  inflation  ZIRP  PIIGS  EFSF  ESM  politics  lostdecade  2011  lesson  economics  monetary  benbernanke  adamsposen 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Why Weber went | money supply | News, data and opinions on market-moving economics from the Financial Times
Weber says hawkish views led to ECB race exitBundesbank president Axel Weber said a lack of political acceptance in the eurozone for his hawkish monetary views drove his abrupt decision to step aside as Bundesbank president and to exit the race for European Central Bank presidency. Mr Weber will step aside in April, a year before his term would have expired.
Political reactions to his “clear positions” on important ECB decisions, such the purchase of government bonds, had added to his reluctance to follow Mr Trichet, Mr Weber told Der Spiegel at the weekend. “These positions might not have always been helpful for my acceptance in some governments,”
Axelweber  ECB  trichet  monetary  policy  2010  2011 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Europe's Risk Watchdog May Prove Toothless in Struggle to Prevent Crises - Bloomberg
Europe’s new risk watchdog probably lacks the teeth to avert the region’s next financial crisis, economists and analysts say.
The European Systemic Risk Board, which aims to identify and warn of brewing risks in the financial system, may fail to prevent future imbalances as it doesn’t have any legal power to enforce action, according to economists at ING Group, Barclays Capital and ABN Amro.
The 65-member board meets for the first time in Frankfurt today. Its chairman, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, and vice chairman, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, will give a press conference at 3:30 p.m.
“The problem is that these bodies are set up to solve yesterday’s problems,” said Peter Hahn, a former Citigroup Inc. banker who lectures on finance at Cass Business School in London. “They can never do more than flagging any issues,” and whether they can stop a crisis “is questionable.”
ERSB  2011  trichet  risk  Europe 
january 2011 by asterisk2a
Accelerating Deposit Flight In Ireland Forces Irish Central Bank To Print Money Independent Of ECB | zero hedge
So let's do the math: ICB "money printing" has increased by €40 billion. For a country whose GDP is about €160 billion, this means that Ireland has printing the equivalent of 25% of its GDP. Put in American terms, this would be the equivalent of about $3.5 trillion in 3 months... In this context we wonder just what the ECB considers "systemically significant."
ECB  monetary  policy  trichet  2011  inflation  Ireland  banking  banks  bailout  Fed  USA  moneysupply  creation  fraud  AIB  EFSF  Europe  politics 
january 2011 by asterisk2a
Whrungskrise: Europa muss mehr Europa wagen - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Die meisten Deutschen wissen, dass die schwarz-rot-goldene Kuscheligkeit vorbei ist. Eigentlich. Doch viele sehnen sich zurück in die Wohlfühlzone. Das hat auch mit der Früher-war-alles-besser-Nostalgie zu tun. Vor allem aber damit, dass die Bundesrepublik sich einst selbst genügte - und heute bei allen globalen Problemen mit drinhängt. Deutsche Soldaten kämpfen in Afghanistan gegen die Taliban. Fleißig-anspruchslose Chinesen machen anständigen schwäbischen Firmen die Weltmärkte streitig. Und Kanzlerin Angela Merkel muss mies wirtschaftende Griechen vor dem ökonomischen Kollaps retten.
angelamerkel  sarkozy  trichet  ecb  europeanunion  EuropeanCommission  2010  Euro  crisis  PIIGS  bailout  EFSF  EFSM 
december 2010 by asterisk2a
Bailouts Test Limits of Taxpayer Tolerance: Karl Heinz Daeke - Bloomberg
What does that mean for Germany? We are on the brink of a transfer union, where huge amounts of money are channeled from richer to poorer countries. And Ireland isn’t even poorer than Germany. According to the International Monetary Fund, Ireland’s gross domestic product per capita is about 35,000 euros ($47,000), higher than Germany’s 31,000 euros. Taking purchasing power into account doesn’t change anything.

So, German taxpayers will guarantee the repayment of about 12.5 billion euros lent to Ireland.

When Jean-Claude Trichet steps down as ECB president next year, the appointment of a German candidate as his successor would be good news. That would give some reassurance to taxpayers that the debt crisis won’t be “solved” by massive inflation.
Anything else will only test the tolerance of German taxpayers.
EFSF  EFSM  angelamerkel  politics  Germany  PIIGS  Ireland  EMU  Axelweber  trichet  ECB  sovereign  debt  2010  2011 
december 2010 by asterisk2a
Trichet Calls for `Maximum' Flexibility of Aid Fund - Bloomberg
""Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Dec. 10 that
ECB buys bond, ECB needs money for that. That money is provided by the individual central banks from the EMU countries respective their size.""

""If Portugal and Spain needs help, EMU countries either have to expand the fund (EFSF) or prop up the ECB that they can buy up periphery bonds to dampen high rise bond spreads ... so that they can finance themselves at reasonable rate from the market.

- European central banks have been forced to take on “a whole range of extra risk” and may need more capital. Trichet said he has “no particular comment” on the topic. Vice President Vitor Constancio said on Dec. 10 that an increase of the rescue fund and more flexibility would be “helpful.”""
ECB  EFSF  EFSM  politics  europeanunion  EuropeanCommission  europe  EMU  Germany  trichet  2010 
december 2010 by asterisk2a
European Debt Crisis Is Shaped by Bond Vigilantes -
Disagreements among national governments have made it difficult to address the core problem, which, he said, is “not lack of liquidity, but of solvency” — that is, not a matter of providing enough cash for short-term operations, but of reducing debt ratios that are simply too high to be managed. Solving the problem anytime soon would require “haircuts” — write-downs or restructurings, in which bondholders would, in the end, have to take some losses.
sovereign  debt  PIIGS  monetary  fiscal  policy  ecb  trichet  greece  ireland  2010  response  politics  angelamerkel  EMU  EuropeanCommission  europe  herding  herd  crisis 
december 2010 by asterisk2a
Lehren aus der Schuldenkrise: Trichet warnt vor EU-Vertragsnderung |
ein neuer Rettungsschirm für Euro-Länder im Vertragswerk verankert werden. Auch private Investoren sollen an den Kosten beteiligt werden. Der EZB-Präsident warnt im Kreis der EU-Staats- und Regierungschefs: Anleger könnten im Gegenzug deutlich höhere Zinsen verlangen.

Deutschland und Frankreich wollen erreichen, dass private Anleihegläubiger und Investoren stärker an den Kosten solcher Rettungsaktionen beteiligt werden. Damit sollen die Steuerzahler entlastet werden, die zum Beispiel einen Großteil der Hilfen für Griechenland stemmen.

warnte Trichet die Staats- und Regierungschefs am Donnerstag jedoch vor einem solchen Schritt. Die Anleihemärkte könnten aufgeschreckt werden, wenn die Politik ihnen das Signal gebe, sie könnten bei Umschuldungen stärker belastet werden, Investoren würden dann höhere Zinsen von Ländern wiePIIGS verlangen, die ohnehin um das Vertrauen der Märkte kämpfen müssen.
EFSF  trichet  ECB  EMU  EuropeanCommission  europeanunion  2010  bailout  PIIGS  sovereign  debt 
october 2010 by asterisk2a
Drinks Are Free as Bartenders Refill Punchbowl: William Pesek - Bloomberg
Central-bank freedom is steadily being curtailed. Concerns that the global economy will follow the BOJ’s trajectory are pointless. The world’s main monetary powers already are like Japan. Just imagine the outcry Bank of England Governor Mervyn King would face if he raised interest rates. It would be politically impossible as lawmakers try to cut spending.
BOJ  Fed  ECB  2010  ZIRP  policy  policy-makers  monetary  independence  benbernanke  trichet  government  sovereign  debt  politics 
october 2010 by asterisk2a
ECB Official Stark Slams IMF View of Europe - Real Time Economics - WSJ
“We see a bias that the IMF has not caught up with the reality in Europe, taking into account the last data we have seen,”

Earlier this week, the IMF said Europe faced “heightened uncertainty” related and its exposure to sovereign risk, as well as higher funding costs. It warned that negative spillovers from Europe to other regions “could be substantial because of financial and trade linkages.”

The IMF said in an update of its World Economic Outlook that downside risks to the global economy had “risen sharply” and that “in this context, the new forecasts hinge on implementation of policies to rebuild confidence and stability, particularly in the euro area.”

“The IMF is underestimating the strength of the recovery in Europe,” Stark said. On Thursday, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet criticized what he sees as a tendency from “the outside” to be “excessively pessimistic” about the euro zone’s prospects, though he didn’t single out the IMF or anyone else.
IMF  ECB  trichet  EMU  Europe  sovereign  debt  july  2010 
july 2010 by asterisk2a
Währungskrise: Britische Ökonomen erwarten Euro-Crash - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
doch die Einschätzungen, die einige von ihnen derzeit äußern, sind selbst für ihre Verhältnisse dramatisch: Der Euro kämpfe derzeit seinen Todeskampf, so lautet der Tenor einer Umfrage des britischen "Daily Telegraph" unter 25 Wirtschaftsexperten. Ohne radikale Änderungen könne die Gemeinschaftswährung schon sehr bald zugrundegehen.

Zwölf der 25 britischen Experten geben der Währungsgemeinschaft in ihrer aktuellen Form höchstens noch fünf Jahre. Acht glauben an die Stabilität des Euro, fünf wollten sich nicht festlegen. Noch vor einem Jahr hätte kaum jemand an einen möglichen Untergang der Gemeinschaftswährung geglaubt, schreibt die Zeitung. Doch die Verwerfungen der letzten Wochen und düstere Worte von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel, "Existenzkrise" hä

Strukturprobleme die Explosion ihrer Schulden eindämmen können.
EMU  Euro  Europe  angelamerkel  sarkozy  PIIGS  history  greatdepression  fiscal  monetary  policy  ECB  trichet  june  2010  uk  economists  survey  greece  spain  portugal  ireland 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
World economy: Fear returns | The Economist
Unfortunately, Germany’s government seems to be drawing exactly the opposite conclusions, promising to set an example with tough cuts when it should be helping to stimulate growth. The worry is that, under German pressure, the ECB will have the same misguided tendency to toughness, condemning the euro area to years of stagnation.

Governments outside the euro zone are also at risk of drawing flawed conclusions, especially on exchange rates and fiscal policy. China seems to think that the euro’s decline makes it less urgent to allow the yuan to appreciate. The opposite is true. With its biggest export market in a funk, China needs to accelerate the rebalancing of its economy towards domestic consumption, with the help of a stronger currency.
PIIGS  Europe  stagnation  austerity  Spain  Greece  Euro  ECB  monetary  fiscal  policy  trichet  Germany  China  yuan  currencies  Dollar  growth  deflation  deflationary 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
Finanzkrise: Schlimmer Verdacht - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Weber schwieg, auch aus seinen Gesichtszügen, so berichten Teilnehmer, ließ sich nichts ablesen. Mit versteinerter Mine nahm der Präsident die neuesten Zahlen zur Kenntnis: Knapp 40 Milliarden Euro hat die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) bis Ende vergangener Woche ausgegeben, um Staatsanleihen zu kaufen: aus Spanien, Portugal, Irland - vor allem aber aus Griechenland.
Rund 25 Milliarden Euro des griechischen Schuldenbergs lagern bereits in den Bilanzen der EZB - und täglich kommen weitere zwei Milliarden Euro dazu, mal mehr, mal weniger. Auf die Bundesbank, die mit 27 Prozent an der EZB beteiligt ist, entfallen davon sieben Milliarden Euro.

Viele Bundesbanker fragen sich, warum die EZB überhaupt griechische Anleihen kauft, zumal in dieser Größenordnung. Das Rettungspaket der Euro-Länder in Höhe von 110 Milliarden Euro für Griechenland ist nämlich längst verabschiedet, die ersten Gelder sind bereits geflossen.
banking  Europe  solvency  liquidity  libor  ECB  bailout  greece  PIIGS  trichet  sarkozy  may  june  2010 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
The Endless Bear Market? | zero hedge
I had lunch with a fixed income manager and we talked markets. "The market wants more quantitative easing," he said. I told him "sure but Trichet said the ECB does not engage in quantitative easing". We both chuckled.

I told him in a zero interest policy world (ZIRP), the only way to stimulate your economy is through your exchange rate. "That's why quantitative easing is bearish for the euro". He agreed with me that the euro is heading towards parity.

On specific "conviction trades", he told me he's short Canadian Real Return Bonds, feeling that inflation expectations will wane and real rates will rise once the Bank of Canada raises interests rates in June or July. "Fundamentals are strong in Canada and inflation is not an issue".
bearmarket  bear  recession  usa  double-dip  greatrecession  canada  economy  interestrate  ZIRP  QE  EMU  trichet  ECB 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Leidensgenossen: Verlierer der Euro-Schuldenkrise |
Jean-Claude Trichet, Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), spricht von dramatischen Zeiten und der schwersten Krise seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg. 750 Mrd. Euro stellen Brüssel und der Internationale Währungsfonds bereit, um einen Kollaps der Währungsunion zu verhindern. Die EZB kauft Staatsanleihen auf. Und die Bundesregierung verbietet ungedeckte Leerverkäufe bei einzelnen Finanzaktien, europäischen Schuldtiteln und untersagt nicht-gedeckte Kreditderivate auf Staaten.
ECB  trichet  bailout  EMU  Europe  may  2010  piigs  greece  Euro  pound  oil  s&p500  usa 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
EZB in der Euro-Krise: Notenbanker in Not - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Im Zuge der Krise brechen bislang sicher geglaubte Dämme. Die US-Fed und die Bank of England haben schon seit anderthalb Jahren direkt Staatsanleihen aufgekauft, und zwar mit frisch gedrucktem Geld. Eine Politik, die in normalen Zeiten inflationär wirkt. Deshalb ist der Europäischen Zentralbank diese Strategie durch den Vertrag von Maastricht verboten. Eigentlich. Aber selbst Notenbank-Insider sind sich nicht mehr sicher, inwieweit das Regelwerk noch Bestand hat. Eigentlich ist es ja den Euro-Staaten nach den EU-Verträgen auch untersagt, angeschlagenen Währungsunion-Mitgliedern finanziell unter die Arme zu greifen. Dennoch organisieren sie jetzt Hilfe für Griechenland. Und vielleicht bald für weitere Länder.
ECB  debt  monetization  sovereign  Fed  BoE  2008  2009  2010  greece  bailout  PIIGS  may  collateral  trichet  EMU  europeanunion  europe  eurozone 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
EU Finance Chiefs Race to Ready Emergency Fund Before Asian Markets Open - Bloomberg
“When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.” Sarkozy cancelled a planned trip to Moscow today to deal with the crisis.

Barroso said he wouldn’t push the independent European Central Bank to, for example, buy government bonds. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet accelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure.
sarkozy  trichet  angelamerkel  ECB  monetization  debt  sovereign  greece  PIIGS  EMU  contagion  systemicrisk  bailout  germany  politics  may  2010  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  solvency 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Trichet Phases Out Some Tools, Opposes IMF Greek Aid (Update2) -
The ECB is trying to mop up excessive liquidity in financial markets without spooking investors concerned that Greece’s record budget deficit will undermine the euro region’s recovery. European Union leaders are resisting putting Greece in the hands of the IMF, concerned that recourse to outside help would expose the EU’s inability to get its own house in order.

“One reason for the euro’s slide is the ECB’s decision to prolong its exit, implying rates will stay lower for longer,” said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Ltd. in London. “But markets are also nervous about Greece.”
ECB  IMF  greece  trichet  exitstrategy  interestrate 
march 2010 by asterisk2a
Trichet: Unabhängigkeit der Fed wichtig für Marktvertrauen - News - FOCUS Online
"Die Unabhängigkeit der Fed ist ebenso wie die Unabhängigkeit aller Zentralbanken großer Länder wichtig für das Vertrauen", sagte Trichet am Donnerstag in einem TV-Interview mit Dow Jones Newswires. Vertrauen sei etwas, was nach den Ereignissen des vergangenen Jahres am meisten gefehlt habe, fügte er hinzu.

Trichet reagierte mit seinen Aussagen auf Fragen zu Vorschlägen von US-Politikern, der Fed bestimmte Kompetenzen zu entziehen bzw. Änderungen vorzunehmen, die ihre Unabhängigkeit gefährden könnten.
trichet  fed  ECB  regulation  oversight  trust  BOE  dollar  reform  independence 
december 2009 by asterisk2a

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