asterisk2a + speculation   97

Plans to ban leaseholds on new-build homes in England - BBC News
Traditionally houses have nearly always been sold as freehold properties, meaning the buyer owns the building and land it is built on outright. [leasholde enables to 1 artificially lower price w the intention to jack up later bc leasehold enables you to do that. ludicrous to think to actually buy house but not own the land it sits on. this leasehold practice is not even the tip of the iceberg of the housing crisis and bubble territory. the tip of the iceberg has to be regulation and consumer rights/protections. shoddy builds for outrageous amounts of money. anybody remember Grenfell tower? ] MPs have described the situation as a "national scandal" and the "PPI of the housebuilding industry".
UK  Housing  Crisis  PPI  profit  maximisation  malicious  loophole  exploitation  affordable  Generation  Rent  leasehold  freehold  self-regulation  regulation  tax  evasion  avoidance  land  price  Bubble  speculative  speculation  regulators 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
Where have all the movers gone? - Council of Mortgage Lenders
It should be known by now that the policy of a home owning democracy supported by London and exploited by London was and is and will be a catastrophe to the productivity and skills of this economy. Because of the misdirected money flows into unproductive houses (capital, asset for retirement, welfare, social mobility of kids). To the contrary of Germany. When policy of capital investment is geared towards poductive investments, assets, capital, skills, expansion, R&D. And where renters have rights! //&! https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/status/880801297208889344 - The housing ladder only worked because of the unique economic conditions of the late 20th century. It's now broken and unlikely to recover. & https://twitter.com/tomhousing/status/881775765033025536 - and houses don't pay taxes (NI, pension pot).
Housing  Crisis  Generationengerechtigkeit  Generation  Rent  mortgage  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  UK  Lobby  Lobbying  Policy  speculation  ROI  underinvestment  malinvestment  productivity  output  gap  skills  economic  history  Brexit  London  shareholder  profit  maximisation 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
The Biggest Real Estate Bubble Of All Time Just Did The Impossible | Zero Hedge
There are two things at work here. The natural resource distortion to the real economy. And the Super Rich and Criminals and Asia/China who are desperate to divest and park their riches in democracies and rule of law and hard "assets"
Canada  bubble  property  Super  Rich  1%  money  laundering  Asia  China  Russia  Brazil  corruption  G20  speculation  speculative  London  CAD  immigration  Student  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  tax  evasion  avoidance  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  unintended  consequences  Fed  BOE  ECB  organised  crime  war  on  drugs  natural  resources 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
The ten graphs which show how Britain became a wholly owned subsidiary of the City of London (and what we can do about it) – New thinking for the British economy
[ uk banks overinvested enabled by political policy into houses and high streets. underinvested in productive capital like R&D companies in general etc ] >> But it doesn’t increase the productive capacity of the economy one iota: a more expensive house doesn’t produce more intelligent children, and a higher share price doesn’t boost a company’s productivity (though it can indirectly boost its capacity to raise funds for investment). [...] Debt-financed asset purchases are thus fundamentally a Ponzi activity: // not just tight housing supply is increasing prices, but also easy credit/debt/mortgage market! // [...] ultimately, there is a limit to just how much debt individuals and corporations can take on – even with low interest rates
UK  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  housing  market  mortgage  household  consumer  debt  disposable  income  servitude  GFC  recovery  wage  growth  Ponzi  asset  capital  Kapital  BOE  credit  card  affordable  social  servicing  default  rate  insolvency  speculation  unintended  consequences  economic  history  consumption  secular  stagnation  Brexit  policy  fiscal  monetary  Mark  Carney  underinvestment  productivity  R&D  Career  Politicians  Margaret  Thatcher 
may 2017 by asterisk2a
Mario Draghi in der Kritik: "Die Geldpolitik macht den Kapitalismus kaputt" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Danach kamen die Übertreibungen am US-Immobilienmarkt, im Süden der Eurozone und auf den Rohstoffmärkten. Wir haben es mit einer Kette wandernder Blasen zu tun, die von der Geldpolitik getrieben werden. Die neue Blase bildet sich nie dort, wo zuvor die alte geplatzt ist. Die Regierungen reagieren auf einen Crash mit schärferen Regeln, aber die Spekulation ist ihnen immer einen Schritt voraus.
GFC  recovery  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  USA  UK  Europe  European  Union  PIGS  secular  stagnation  household  debt  consumer  car  loan  student  credit  card  private  Austerity  IMF  OECD  Dodd-Frank  self-regulation  Regulation  regulators  FSA  BaFin  speculation  speculative  ROI  productivity  output  gap  inflation  targeting  monetary  policy  fiscal  Schuldenbremse  Pact  inequality  capital  assets  gini  Coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  10%  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  bank  bailout  zombie  NPL 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
Andrew Mazzone Interviews James K. Galbraith
banks like property! more likely to lend to finance property than SME/SMB investment. because that investment is not propped up by the government. [...] min 6 subprime & credit bubble since 80's << behaviour of lenders [...] sensible people were given fraudulent debt instruments (no self-regulation, and regulators failed). [...] no prosecution because people who should have prosecuted those, didn't want to ruin their private future career. [...] min 15 - inequality and unemployment driven by inequality. [...] austerity is name of the game by the "establishment" - 20% of society that benefited from the bank bailout and reflation policy by central banks - [...] 19:15 - who do banks want to borrow in this environment?! austerity, aggregate demand shortfall, lack of confidence, volatility, uncertainty, credit bubble pain (liquidity trap) etc. [...] Solution ("an alternative way to the status quo, who made this mess): Fix Income Distribution thus Purchasing Power (aggregate demand, ie minimum wage), and restructure finance away from investment banking and speculation and derivatives towards real economy (ie tax heavily what is not real economy business) //&! James K. Galbraith on "Inequality and Instability: What's Ahead for the World Economy" - youtu.be/Mw4Bd9ols-E //&! James K. Galbraith - "The End of Normal" - youtu.be/PGFcB65l8Io
Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  1%  10%  20%  Super  Rich  property  bubble  London  rentier  rent-seeking  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  European  Union  deflation  deflationary  JAMESGALBRAITH  book  James  Kenneth  Galbraith  credit  bubble  credit  card  credit  card  debt  credit  boom  debt  servitude  speculation  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  austerity  Raghuram  Rajan  self-regulation  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  subprime  Wall  Street  regulation  regulators  Career  Politicians  politician  No  Representation  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  retail  banking  investment  banking  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  inequality 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  UK  global  economy  recovery  aggregate  demand  property  bubble  underinvestment  austerity  George  Osborne  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  mortgage  market  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subprime  car  loan  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  GFC  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  David  Blanchflower  Danny  Blanchflower  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  Super  Cycle  junk  bond  Gini  coefficient  deflationary  deflation  Taper  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  BIS  ECB  Fed  BOJ  credit  bubble  PBOC  hot-money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Sovietization of capitalism (E723) - YouTube
BIS 100% of private debt and finance sector larger than 3.9% of economy bad ... and siphoning off talent from more productive fields of work. And finance favours lending to property and land (low productivity). [...] financial products (derivatives) do not help economy. is just a financial product, fee collection. rentier! rent-seeking behaviour! fees fees fees. (JP Morgan, 89% of profits, see interview) [...] QE reflated asset prices/share prices! // In the second half, Max interviews David Graeber about his new book, The Utopia of Rules: On Technology, Stupidity and the Secret Joys of Bureaucracy.
private  debt  consumer  debt  household  debt  BIS  Wall  Street  recovery  zombie  banks  car  loan  credit  card  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  student  debt  economic  history  GFC  secular  stagnation  UK  City  of  London  USA  investment  banking  retail  banking  BOE  Fed  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  property  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  productivity  output  gap  austerity  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  constituency  Party  Funding  vested  interest  interest  groups  mortgage  market  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subsidies  subsidizing  derivatives  financial  product  rent-seeking  rentier  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  reflate  reflation  Mark  Carney  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  book  David  Graeber  MervynKing 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
German Banks Told To Start Hoarding Cash | Zero Hedge
In order to generate artificial economic growth, the ECB wants banks to make as many loans as possible, no matter how stupid or idiotic. They believe that economic growth is simply a function of loans. The more money that’s loaned out, the more the economy will grow. This is the sort of theory that works really well in an economic textbook. But it doesn’t work so well in a history textbook. Cheap money encourages risky behavior. It gives banks an incentive to give ‘no money down’ loans to homeless people with no employment history. It creates bubbles (like the housing bubble from 10 years ago), and ultimately, financial panics (like the banking crisis from 8 years ago). Banks are supposed to be conservative, responsible managers of other people’s money. When central bank policies penalize that practice, bad things tend to happen.
Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  debtoverhang  liquidity  trap  zombie  banks  deleveraging  Debt  Super  Cycle  secular  stagnation  consumer  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  household  car  loan  credit  card  student  loan  student  loan  student  Bubble  generation  rent  OMT  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  Leiharbeit  Zeitarbeit  Agenda  2010  low  pay  low  income  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  velocity  of  money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Thousands told their pension savings could be at risk - BBC News
[ fees ] It follows fears that dozens of companies providing auto enrolment pensions are too small to survive. The BBC has also uncovered evidence that employers and workers are being deliberately misled by some providers. The government said it was aware of the issue, and was planning to take action. Independent experts claim the problem could affect up to a quarter of a million people a year who are putting their savings into so-called master trust pensions. Such schemes are popular with the 1.8 million small employers with fewer than 30 staff who are currently signing up under the auto enrolment programme. "There is a risk of these schemes falling over; there is a risk that members might lose their money," said Andrew Warwick Thompson, executive director for regulatory policy at the Pensions Regulator. However, he said scheme assets invested through asset managers regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) would be safe. This will be "the vast majority of cases", he said.
Tories  Privatisation  self-regulation  regulation  speculation  speculative  retirement  401k  pension  scheme  pension  obligation  pension  fund  public  pension  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Whitehall  Westminster  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  dogma  ideology  microeconomic  policy  labour  market  Conservative  Party  nasty  secular  stagnation  Generationengerechtigkeit  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  Millennials  generationy  generationx  babyboomers  City  of  London  GFC  oversight  Bank  FCA  Greed  regulators  trust  free  market  neoliberalism  neoliberal  policy  error  policy  folly  HMRC 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Inflation: Vermögenspreise stiegen 2015 im Rekordtempo - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wohl dem, der Immobilien, Anteile an Familienfirmen oder Sammlerobjekte besitzt. Die Preise für Vermögenswerte sind 2015 so stark gestiegen wie kaum je zuvor. Schlechter sieht es für Normalsparer aus.
financial  repression  distortion  hot-money  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Germany  speculative  speculation  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  income  distribution  hunt  for  yield  property  bubble  UK  foreign  direct  investment  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  emerging  middle  class  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  economic  history 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Die Macht der Finanzkonzerne - Wie Blackrock mittels Geld die Welt regiert - YouTube
extraction of fat. no skin in the game. // Privatisation of housing stock - social and affordable, anglo saxon capitalism style; profit maximisation, dividends. // after Goldman Sachs the new vampiresquid // no skin in game; get money for speculation from pension funds, other investors, mutual funds. << that is the system! // nur wer geld hat, kann es vermehren. // nearly no governance, no guidelines regarding sustainability, ethics, transparency, morals. // no regulation = big profit and exploitation, corruption, bribery.
BlackRock  MBO  LBO  M&A  Private  Equity  financial  product  Hedge  Fund  Black  Swan  blackswan  Nassim  Taleb  self-regulation  Mutual  Fund  Venture  Capital  risk  governance  corporate  governance  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  activist  investor  Main  Street  accountability  transparency  mainstreet  arbitrage  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  bonuses  bonus  speculation  revolving  door  regulation  regulators  Career  Politicians  CEO  pay  dividends  Heuschrecken  ROI  speculative  sustainability  tax  code  ethics  corporate  scandal  accounting  scandal  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Vickers warns over weaker bank safety buffers - BBC News
[ no skin in the game ] The man charged with leading an inquiry into the future safety of Britain's banks has said Bank of England plans are not strong enough. Sir John Vickers, who led the Independent Commission on Banking (ICB) said: "The Bank of England proposal is less strong than what the ICB recommended." In a BBC interview, he added "I don't think the ICB overdid it." The Bank of England declined to comment. Specifically, it is the plans to make sure that banks have enough capital that Sir John has questioned. Capital is considered vital to a bank's safety, as it serves to protect it from sudden losses. It comes in many forms, but the most common is funding from shareholders, who expect a hefty return on the risk they are taking. The backdrop to this news is the current slump in bank share prices across Europe. Since the start of the year, European banking stocks have lost a quarter of their value. //&! bit.ly/1Xs0Bac
zombie  banks  retail  banking  investment  banking  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  economic  history  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  GFC  speculation  CDS  CDO  derivatives  Interestrateswap  financial  product  VAR  risk-management  risk  management  Greed  bonuses  bonus  financial  crisis  blackswan  Black  Swan  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  short-termism  self-regulation  regulation  deregulation  regulators  Glass-Steagall  BOE  ECB  Bundesbank  sovereign  debt  crisis  Fed 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube
- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.
equity  bubble  frothy  distortion  USA  Fed  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  BRIC  BOE  ECB  excess  reserves  correction  2015  BOJ  reflate  reflation  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  recovery  GFC  Taper  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  fiscal  policy  austerity  western  world  developed  world  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  income  gap  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  hot-money  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  property  bubble  Richard  Koo  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiat  currency  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Europe  UK  Japan  Germany  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  job  creation  job  security  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  inequality  income  mobility  Super  Rich  1%  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  Polarisation  Career  Politicians  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
Brazil  BRIC  Developing  World  China  credit  bubble  Latin  America  India  Russia  South  Africa  2015  Niall  Ferguson  NiallFerguson  recovery  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  emerging  middle  class  western  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  economic  history  Richard  Koo  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  globalization  globalisation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  correction  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  PBOC  banking  crisis  bank  bailout  austerity  UK  USA  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  policy  consolidation  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  low  income  job  creation  labour  market  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  Super  Rich  1%  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  business  investment  business  confidence  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  underemployed  participation  rate  productivity  output  gap  macroeconomic  policy  policy  job  microeconomi 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  Party  Round  SPV  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  B  Round  A  Round  growth  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  2015  cost  of  living  credit  bubble  cost  of  entry  aspirational  leverage  margin  trading  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  Fed  unintended  consequences  burn  rate  runway  ECB  Mutual  Fund  unknown  unkown  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  economic  growth  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  financial  financial  repression  western  world  Developing  BRIC  emerging  complexity  incomplete  information 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity Now: Brazil's Downgrade and Reckoning - Bloomberg View
Brazil faces its deepest recession in 25 years, policy drift and now a reputation deficit that threaten to undo years of prosperity and social gains. [...] even years on, with the economy set to shrink by two percent this year, and unemployment and consumer debt spiking, Brazil looks more likely cast as the leader of submerging markets and the sick man of the BRICS, the club of outsize developing nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- once touted to lead world growth.
liberal  economic  reform  economic  reform  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  Brazil  China  India  Russia  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  BIS  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  global  trade  global  economy  GFC  recovery  PBOC  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  liquidity  trap  2008  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  Carry  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  commodity  prices  South  Africa  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  bribery  corruption 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bumper payouts for housebuilding executives as market booms | Business | The Guardian
Two of Britain’s largest housebuilders, Berkeley Group and Persimmon, could hand out about £1bn to their top executives and managers in pay and bonuses over the next six years, boosted by strong UK house prices and government-subsidies for home-buyers. Tony Pidgley, founder and executive chairman at Berkeley, is expected to face tough questions on Tuesday at the group’s shareholder meeting near its headquarters in leafy Cobham, Surrey, after it emerged last month that his pay package last year was worth £23.3m. [...] Meanwhile, executives at Persimmon, the UK’s largest housebuilder, also have a Berkeley-style incentive scheme that is one of the most generous to be found at a London stock market-listed firm. [...] Berkeley’s share price has risen more than 40% since the election of a Conservative government in May, [...] [bonuses] “entirely based on short-term performance”. [...] return on equity[.][ < KPI, what gets measured gets done ] &! bbc.in/1KE0jut - Barratt Homes profits +45%
social  housing  affordable  housing  CEO  pay  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  CEO  Leadership  housing  market  housing  crisis  generation  rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  UK  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  vested  interest  Tories  Conservative  Party  No  Representation  social  tension  social  cohesion  gentrification  Gentrified  austerity  2015  mortgage  market  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hot-money  bonuses  bonus  transparency  accountability  crony  capitalism  shared  economic  interest  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  George  Osborne  babyboomers  David  Cameron  social  contract  political  theory  exploitation  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  oligopoly  oligopol  monopsony  cartel  antitrust  financial  incentive  Public  Good  underinvestment  investment  productive  investment  output  gap  productivity  commuting  infrastructure  investment  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget2015  policy  folly  policy  error  Makers  Public  short-term  long-term  living  standard  cost  of  living  cost  of  ownership  cost  of  entry  living  spaces  standard  of  living  living  environment  city  living  urban  planning  urbanisation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
We’re gonna need a bigger round...
After 15 years of staggering declines, the cost of building a company in San Francisco is rising sharply // prohibitive! diluting too much too early. // China and other BRIC paper millionaers divesting into property speculators, around the world. every city that has seen substantial price appreciation +10-20% over last +5 years // hot money from monetary policy, excess reserves, flushing around the globe //
cost  of  entry  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  standard  of  living  city  living  commuting  London  Start-up  Scene  San  Francisco  burn  rate  runway  advice  lesson  urbanisation  urban  planning  Mountain  View  Palo  Alto  Redwood  growth  round  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  PBOC  2015  credit  bubble  Fed  ECB  BOJ  excess  reserves  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Micro  VC  Limited  Partners  Angel  Investor  Seed  Party  valuation  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  borderless 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine - Bloomberg View
It turns out investors were right about Alibaba: No company is more on the front lines of China's economic shifts than Jack Ma's juggernaut. And that's just where the problems begin. [...] After months of putting the entire weight of the government behind saving the market, Beijing appears to have given up. The fallout from that realization will have unpredictable effects on 1.3 billion people indoctrinated to believe Beijing can control any crisis or narrative. As markets swoon and gross domestic product slides, consumers are delaying nonessential purchases. [...] Mass austerity has only just begun. [...] it would be interesting to see how the government responds to "large and widespread investment losses that could lead to a notable negative wealth effect which could weaken consumption, as well as grievances against the authorities." [...] Macau's GDP -26.4% last quarter [...] Chinese gamblers stayed home. [...] Ma created a better quarterly GDP report than Beijing.
Alibaba  China  Jack  Ma  2015  credit  bubble  PBOC  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  hunt  for  yield  speculation  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  margin  trading  leverage  discretionary  spending  Call  Taper  Fed  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  market  intervention  bond  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  hubris  irrational  exuberance  western  world  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  savings  glut  correlation  excess  reserves  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  investment  banking  New  Normal  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  BIS  centralbanks  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  short-term  1%  Super  Rich  Privileged  Establishment  Toff  bank  bailout 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge
For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV
Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  2015  China  commodities  global  trade  global  economy  western  world  developed  world  BRIC  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  PBOC  economic  slowdown  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  economic  history  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  contagion  VIX  volatility  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  margin  trading  deleveraging  Greed  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  hubris  panic  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  irrational  exuberance  economic  growth  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  banks  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  recovery  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  economic  damage 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China stock market: Paul Mason explains - YouTube
- slowdown is thread to social unrest and economic legitimacy << keeping yourself in power. // debt fuelled recovery also in China. Across the world. // run out of time to re-tool economy quiet quickly. the pain is ahead. very unknown future for Chinese economy, policy reaction, and global economy outlook. especially the size of contagion for global economy - BRIC, developed world. frontier, emerging economies.
PBOC  economic  history  economic  growth  NPL  reflate  reflation  2015  Taper  property  bubble  equity  bubble  GFC  recovery  Debt  Super  Cycle  communism  hunt  for  yield  emerging  middle  class  China  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Will the Next Recession Be Made in China? - Bloomberg Business
When China sneezes, the world just might catch a cold [...] The difference between now and then is that a lot of developing nations and global markets have braced themselves against the risks of a currency crisis, making a full-scale Asian Contagion unlikely. [...] “In a nutshell, no one can or should rule out a crisis, but we believe that the risk has fallen from a few years ago.” [...] Financial markets depend on good information. When it’s lacking, investors flail. They assume the best when they’re bullish and the worst when fear gets the best of them. That helps explain the eruption over China, a nation that remains opaque despite having the world’s second-biggest economy. Facts as basic as its GDP are hard to pin down: Officially it grew at 7 percent in the first and second quarters—suspiciously, precisely the rate Li predicted for 2015. Some outsiders put growth at closer to 5 percent based on data such as electricity consumption and rail cargo.
global  economy  China  global  trade  Europe  USA  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  contagion  economic  history  2015  recovery  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  PBOC  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  Debt  Super  Cycle 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
On Second Thought, China Slowdown Will Hit Global-Growth Outlook - Bloomberg Business
Fitch Ratings said in a note Wednesday that while pessimism on China’s short-term outlook is “overdone,” there is still the potential for a “prolonged period of lower growth,” with expansion well below 7 percent. [...] Things are looking gloomier elsewhere. Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s largest, contracted 1.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, the government reported on Friday. That’s worse than the 1.7 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. [...] “The basic assumptions about global growth are suffering, and the epicenter is China,” // lots of hot money on the hunt for yield found its way to emerging market and developing market! period, didn't stay in UK, US, Europe. Period. That is something policy makers accepted. financial market is global, not local. BOE ZIRP NIRP QE can not be contained within UK. Period. Same with Chinese newly minted property/paper millionaires put their money in London & else. LatAm into Miami and Co property.
global  economy  BRIC  global  trade  deflationary  deflation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  China  Russia  India  2015  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  emerging  middle  class  GFC  monetary  policy  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  unintended  consequences  complexity  globalization  global  imbalances  globalisation  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  economic  history  BOE  Fed  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  zombie  banks  monetary  theory  contagion  financial  repression  financial  market  bond  bubble  property  bubble  PBOC 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Paul Mason: what they're not telling you about housing - YouTube
- Tories isn't brave enough to stop the one way bet. Electorate preferential to those who actually vote, voted them in and are spared of most of the austerity. babyboomers and pensioners. // add Generation Rent + Student Loan Debt (Bubble) + low interest rate environment to inflate debt away + low yield for savings mean higher principle each year to put in means less discretionary spending + secular stagnation in the western world (Globalisation + Software eats the world) equals wage stagnation equals less spending power and savings power. ... ... it is a Disaster in the making, in-front of our eyes. Only those who inherited will be ok. otherwise, social mobility goes down, inequality up, ... making yourself means making hard choices (ie no kids), and bettering yourself by your own means impossible, when the whole system conspires against you.
social  housing  affordable  housing  London  property  bubble  housing  market  UK  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Supply  and  Demand  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  generation  rent  policy  folly  Conservative  Party  David  Cameron  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Makers  policy  error  cost  of  living  standard  of  living  living  standard  living  environment  living  spaces  urbanisation  cost  of  ownership  cost  of  entry  babyboomers  Gesellschaft  inequality  Tories  Career  Politicians  austerity  dogma  ideology  IMF  OECD  Gini  coefficient  economic  history  lost  generation  lost  decade  generationy  Millennials 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Gurley on Global Selloff: Bloomberg West (Full Show 8/21) - YouTube
'averting catastrophic events' - hard things about hard things - book // when taking on growth round to grow aggressively company (buying customer growth)... you might actually take on risk. especially when the sentiment and the market turns and you burned it all and weren't so good at allocating the money and 'growing' you have to maybe raise a flat/downround ... ooopsies. Or even have to accept a debt round and massive lay-off to get to cash flow even/positive. And run a tight ship with the user base/business you've got. // re: post-price correction after speculative China bubble burst and massive China weakness and still existing/persistent deflationary pressures in western world. // &! bit.ly/1NTc3GM - Public markets affect venture funding. Full stop.
growth  round  IPO  Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  Unicorn  Decacorn  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  burn  rate  runway  sentiment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  China  recovery  bubble  reflate  reflation  book  Ben  Horowitz  Marc  Andreessen  business  model  cash  flow  cash-is-king  Start-Up  lesson  financial  model  Start-Up  advice  valuation  Mark  Suster  Wall  Street 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Tech Stocks Rebound: Bloomberg West (Full Show 8/25) - YouTube
15:53 - you can build sw companies everywhere else. cost of living out of control as well dampens quality of life and standard of living. // lower burn rate, more time, more runway to find traction (product market fit) beyond MVP,
London  Start-up  Scene  San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  Bay  Area  Mountain  View  Oakland  Seattle  Portland  New  York  Scene  Los  Angeles  Scene  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  cost  of  ownership  standard  of  living  living  standard  living  environment  noise  pollution  air  pollution  city  living  quality  of  life  urbanisation  urban  planning  California  public  transportation  commuting  well  being  chronic  stress  Oxidative  stress  stress  happiness  index  affordable  housing  social  housing  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Redwood  San  Jose  bootstraped  bootstrapping  bootstrapped  burn  rate  runway  Venture  Capital  growth  round  war  for  talent  lesson  advice 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
reflate  reflation  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  secular  stagnation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  recovery  UK  USA  Europe  dogma  ideology  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  rate  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  participation  rate  unemployment  imbalance  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  STEM  industrial  policy  Manufacturing  competitiveness  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  commodity  business  commoditization  borderless  deflationary  deflation  Software  Is  Eating  The  Marketplace  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  mobile  first  Smartphone  Revolution  2.0  energy  price  Oil  price  inflation  expectation  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  productive  investment  IMF  OECD  developed  world  emerging  emerging  growth  investment  midd 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China economy: Weakened foundations by FT Big Read
Facing an economic slowdown with its old tools to stimulate growth losing their power, Beijing finally turned to a weapon it had avoided using for more than two decades. Jamil Anderlini investigates why China’s leaders resorted to devaluation of the renminbi, and the risk of a currency war // hot money also flowed outside into London and NY property market! in search for yield and diversified portfolio by the newly minted paper rich Chinese 1% - 10%. // Slow down hammered already commodity market and energy prices. And now fear of a real hurtful economic slowdown of China - western world panicked. Selling off world wide. and taking money out of neighbouring countries of China and other emerging and developing countries. // PBOC is willing to risk currency war, ie with Japan!?
China  QE  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  economic  history  2015  correction  distortion  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  bubble  bubbles  hot-money  infrastructure  investment  public  investment  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  western  world  globalization  globalisation  global  imbalances  secular  stagnation  developed  world  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  NIRP  Japan  Abenomics  Yen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
BaFin: Lebensversicherer kämpfen mit Kapitalregeln - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Lebensversicherungen leiden unter den niedrigen Zinsen in der Eurozone. Deshalb fällt es vielen Konzernen laut Finanzaufsicht BaFin schwer, ihre Kapitalanlagen an die neuen Regeln anzupassen - es gebe noch einige "Wackelkandidaten".
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  behavioral  finance  group  behavior  behavioral  economics  Taper  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  liquidity  trap  economic  history 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Fear Trumps Greed in Silicon Valley as Some Venture Firms Hedge - Bloomberg Business
[... high ops cost associated w SF/Palo Alto ... fancy office (and expensive (rarefied) developers from Google or Facebook) in SF as a sign of success while burning +2m per year at least with no cash flow in sight ... and with all consumer products being free and hoping to finance themselves in the future with advertising ... ] Some VCs are urging their companies to build a rainy day fund to ensure their survival. [...] It’s a constant battle deciding whether to invest in a potentially lucrative deal, said Philadelphia financier Rudy Karsan: “Greed versus fear.” [ Softbank Capital just last week came out publicly with a shift in strategy, to invest now ONLY in proven winners, at slightly premium to get in (and with preferred liquidation preferences in writing), &focus resources on those portfolio companies ... than to compete in a crowded, distorted, muggy, in transparent, very speculative (with lots of ifs and luck and bet on CEO to execute well) A-, B- (and C-Round) market. ]
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  runway  cash  flow  cash-is-king  hunt  for  yield  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  growth  round  SPV  war  for  talent  Private  Market  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  bubble  USA  Fed  Taper  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  Angel  Investor  Seed  business  model  advertising  VC  Venture  Capital  Greed  FOMO  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  SoftBank  Capital  IPO  NASDAQ  A  Unicorn  Decacorn  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  exit  strategy  M&A  acquisition  acquihire  acqui-hire  business  cycle  business  plan  business  investment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  leverage  debtoverhang  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Welcome To The Unicorn Club, 2015: Learning From Billion-Dollar Companies | TechCrunch
capital efficiency of these “private unicorns” is surprisingly low, [ << bc they (1) use growth round to buy aggressively market share/customers and (2) Palo Alto/San Francisco/New York/London is expensive locations - prices driven up by Venture Capital & Angel Investments & hunt for developers - employees can command negotiations about their price in most cases. ] [...] 7) Take heart, “old people” of Silicon Valley: Companies with educated, tech-savvy, experienced 30-something, co-founding teams with history together have built the most successes. Twenty-something founders and successful pivots are the minority; dedicated CEOs who are able to scale their companies for the long haul are not. [...] Optimistic private markets sheltering a thicket of “paper unicorns.” [ << Bill Gurley, there will be a dead unicorn ] [...] [SAAS] are also among the more capital efficient companies on average in our set[.] [...] There’s still too little diversity at the top in 2015
Unicorn  Silicon  Valley  marketshare  growth  round  FOMO  Private  Market  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  SPV  diversity  gender  bias  gender-based  discrimination  gender  politics  gender  equality  gender  policing  gender-based  harassment  STEM  pattern  matching  pattern  recognition  nurture  environment  entrepreneur 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Homejoy Is Shutting Down At The End Of The Month | TechCrunch
tcrn.ch/1CO0OOU / 7:10 $VC subsidized early business. Could not get 2 cash flow even. Lets not speak of cash flow positive. // If u dont have a cash flow even/positive business, u are dependent on $VC 2 keeping it afloat. If u dont have massive growth, VCs like 2 see & not hitting ur milestones & ur still not able 2 turn the business arnd towards cash flow even. Ur dead in the pan. AND 4 digital only consumer & entertainment products, scale is important +10m users. Because then only advertisers might ... might consider placing an add/natively if the conversion & engagement metrics are attractive. Advertisers & brands cant spread resources thin across 1000 apps. Its overhead & waste in ops. That is why BIG like TV (still), Daily Paper/Magazine (still) and FB (owning +70% of Social) are the MAIN HUBS. >> THUS [Freemium] the Free On Phone Version 4 closetphile (wont cost u much except dev) & the Customer paying 4 Cloud Convenience,Security, more features (ie analytics). &! bit.ly/1CSygUA
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  on-demand  convenience  scale  economies  of  scale  Venture  Capital  burn  rate  runway  business  model  closetphile  wardrobemalfunction  freemium  Homejoy  added  value  value  creation  Perception  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Appification  mobile  homescreen  mobile  first  mobile  phone  irrational  exuberance  Rocket  Internet  Uber  Lyft  customer  acquisition  customer  acquisition  cost  customer  retention  customer  lifetime  value  SAAS  Postmates  Service  Sector  Jobs  1099  Economy  uncertainty  self-employment  Niedriglohnsektor  Niedriglohn  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  commodity  business  commoditization  price  sensitive  price  insensitive  price  sensitivity  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  status  symbol  status  anxiety  socioeconomic  status  social  status  craigslist  sustainable  sustainability  metrics  KPI  Circa  Share  Economy  marketshare  unit  economics 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The real truth about the 2008 financial crisis | Brian S. Wesbury | TEDxCountyLineRoad - YouTube
bankers are greedy & excess speculation, is the story. Fed controls short-term interest rate through interest rate setting/Fed meetings based on fundy of American economy, // NIRP (greenspan put) post dot.com, distorts market, decision makers decisions. housing bubble w help of NIRP after dot.com & home-ownership campaign in bush years (fiscal stimulus/subsidies) 2 push that "asset." Not "home" to live in. // banks got too big to fail (their balance sheet/lending book) as liabilities (toxic assets - real downside unknown (due to complexity and day to day changes during crisis years), like CDO/CDS etc) overtook book, overall, value. Banking being actually insolvent, but how insolvent one doesn't know. Thus bad bank idea. ACCOUNTING. // Paul Volker raised rates ... was able, because USA (private household, banks, corporates) were not in a balance sheet recession. Problem was endogenous. // Deregulation + Lax accounting contributed to GFC greatly, unable to value banks books.
GFC  economic  history  fractional  reserve  banking  financial  crisis  monetary  theory  systemicrisk  Greenspan-Put  NIRP  ZIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  interestrate  dot.com  reflation  reflate  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  leverage  alangreenspan  greenspan  Ben  Bernanke  benbernanke  distortion  housing  market  accounting  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  financial  market  financial  incentive  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  TARP  subprime  QE  stresstest  timgeithner  henrypaulson  economic  model  economic  damage  macroeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  history  paulvolcker  complexity  incomplete  information  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  confidence  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  mark-to-market  Janet  Yellen 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Silicon Valley: 'Centre of the universe' - but for how long? - BBC News
Bill Gurly; there will be a dead unicorn. again, predictions are hard. but pointing out fundy skew is ok. ie cost, and raising lots of money with no business model/revenue stream even in the pipeline ...
Silicon  Valley  irrational  exuberance  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  growth  round  late-stage  funding  Unicorn  Bill  Gurley 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet.org  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The frustrating, no-win "Goldilocks Zone" of seed deals
Don’t do party rounds. Raise as much as you possibly can so you don’t get crunched. Don’t raise money from just seed funds. Don’t raise money from just big name VCs unless you know you’ll breakthrough, and then absolutely do. And actually you never know that, so nevermind. Oh, and good luck rationalizing all of this advice, first timers. [...] TL;DR version: Large VC firms may do lots of seed deals but each partner will only do one to two Series A deals a year. So basic math tells you it’s a game of survivor. Most of the seed deals will not get a Series A from that firm. The concern is if you don’t quite make the cut, is the signal so bad to other VCs that you are worse off than if you never raised that, say, $200k from a big name VC to begin with? [ not every product consumer or b2b will not be a 500m/1bn dollar company, thus it's not worth it to raise risk capital and just grind it out!? at a sustainable pace, putting back in what you earned. ] &! bit.ly/1HjO13v
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  Venture  Capital  Series  A  seedround  seedfunding  traction  business  model  Silicon  Valley  economies  of  scale  pageviews  Unicorn  valuation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
China's stockmarket crash: A red flag | The Economist
via bit.ly/1HgJT6x // "Yet China’s intervention has screamed of panic. [...] If economic stability is not in peril, why then the panic? The most compelling explanation is politics. The government has staked much credibility and prestige on the stockmarket. When the going was still good, the official press was chock-a-block with articles about how the rally reflected the economic reforms that Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, was set to push. Li Keqiang, the premier, said repeatedly that he wanted equity markets to provide a bigger share of corporate financing—comments, from punters' perspective, not unlike waving a red cape in front of a bull. The sudden end to the rally is the first major dent in the public standing of the Xi-Li team. The botched attempts to stabilise the market only make them look weaker, giving succour to their critics." &! bbc.in/1eFbi8h - 1929 margin trading (borrowing to buy shares) & leverage products &! bloom.bg/1RjIgg9
China  equity  bubble  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  Middle  Class  Politics  public  perception  economic  model  economic  damage  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  economic  growth  group  behavior  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  asset  bubble  margin  trading  leverage  margin  debt 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greece risk pales against China - YouTube
China's own equity bubble. Money taken out of property (domestic and world wide), into equities.
Grexit  China  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  contagion  economic  growth  economic  model  2015 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Snapchat Solicits Longer Content By Ditching Tap-And-Hold-To-Watch | TechCrunch
bit.ly/1NAmQWu "he's showing that he can make practical decisions that benefit the Snapchat users, even if it means losing something that was fundamental to Snapchat's product itself." // But doesn't he give up the 'attention grab/focus' feature for long-form content and thus also loosing share of the snacking %' !!?? long-term we will see what Snapchat will become and be eventually worth. Because it won't be a Facebook. It could turn out to be a Twitter with problems in monetisation (turning a profit and meeting growth stage investors expectations - current valuation ... at IPO and post-IPO one, two years on.) Gary might be right about putting yourself out of business than letting the other guys do it for you. But Snapchat (Mr Spiegel) may have been forced to abandon its 'differentiation' in order to meet valuation expectations by appealing to a broader potential user base to use it more, like to read news & consumer other types of content than Snapchats ( P2P or B2C versions ).
Snapchat  snacking  attention  span  user  behaviour  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  valuation  Evan  Spiegel  product  management  consumer  product  Social  Media  Social  Network  Core  Value  Proposition  product  experience  Design  Minimal  Viable  Product/Market  Fit  Officer  differentiate  differentiation  Twitter  Facebook  business  model  Unicorn  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  growth  round  Silicon  Valley 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
What do the numbers say about trouble for China’s economy? - YouTube
As the second-largest economy in the world, China's official growth rate is one of those statistics that people around the world pay attention to. But some say there is evidence that its economy is in greater trouble than can be seen by the numbers. Bloomberg reporter Ken Hoffman joins Hari Sreenivasan to discuss. [...] out of property/real-estate (speculation) into stock market gambling [...] question if they can engineer economy into adding more added value output (changing type of growth, one off vs multiples (higher wages = more disposable income/discretionary spending) to feed more than one mouth once) ... before the tipping point, deceleration and falling off a cliff - bust. >> &! Hank Paulson: China's Economy Is Running Out of Steam - youtu.be/-JWySfeR1W8 &! youtu.be/iUtEZcKdFhU // &! atfp.co/1Ht8Kp4 wapo.st/1NttkGD &! youtu.be/jq8moMvfj4I - Stock Market full of gamblers is not reflective of facts/real world. Still, real economy did lost momentum very fast.
China  air  pollution  pollution  economic  history  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  2015  added  value  economic  model  equity  bubble  infrastructure  investment  green  energy  renewable  energy 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Who Will Be Hurt Most When The Tech Bubble Bursts? Not VCs | TechCrunch
In a nutshell, FOMO is driving many investors in a hustle to be a part of the next Facebook or Twitter and put in huge investments for a fraction of stake. And, they don’t see much risk in it as long as they get the downside protection. [ growth round = rocket fuel splashed onto stuff to acquire more customers and market share (basically, but not always) ] [...] Someday, pretty soon, these will be put to the test, and valuations based on visibility of earnings will matter again. A few will succeed of course, but several others will fall – it remains to be seen how miserably. VCs will most likely walk away with their invested money, if not more. It’s the employees and founders who will see their million-dollar dreams crash and burn. [living beyond ur means & betting dollars you dont have on a time that seems further away than u can even guess (secular stagnation)] [lack of income growth (across the western world) thus disposable income (discretionary spending) is also not helping]
Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  operations  Bill  Gurley  Unicorn  runway  FOMO  Venture  Capital  growth  round  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  Private  Market  Private  Equity  SPV  bubble  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  disinflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  western  world  business  model  revenue  revenues  fiscal  policy  income  growth  USA  OECD  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  disposable  income  policy  error  Taper  policy  folly  monetary  policy  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  1%  Super  Rich  on-demand  convenience  Share  Economy  labour  labour  economics  discretionary  spending  Schuldenbremse  PIGS  Brexit  Grexit  currency  war  macroeconomics  Pact  Europe  productivity  Lohnzurückhaltung  job  creation  globalisation  globalization  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  flat  world  borderless  competitive  Future  of  Work  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  economic  history  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  demographic  bubble  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Unicorn sugar crash | PandoDaily
liquidation preferences // // &! http://www.bothsidesofthetable.com/2015/05/14/the-most-important-advice-i-could-give-you-about-unicorns/ - So here’s advice I give people all the time when they’re raising money. Narratives matter. Narratives are memorable. I’m not talking about raising money at a billion dollars. I’m talking about making your company memorable by describing it with a narrative that people will later remember. Showing people your features or even your recent performance lacks context and won’t be memorable. Your business needs to be cast in a story that puts it into perspective. Why is your market broken? Why is your solution 10x better? Why are you the unique person to solve this problem? Why is it a really big market? Why is it ready for disruption? Why is now the right time? How do you remain defensible?
Unicorn  termsheet  liquidation  preferences  growth  round  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Silicon  Valley  pitch  deck  valuation  speculative  speculation 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget the Verizon-AOL deal. The big wave in tech M&A is just getting started. | PandoDaily
The all-cash AOL deal may drain Verizon’s cash reserves, but consider that Verizon generated $10 billion in operating cash flows last quarter – on top of $113 billion in total debt. [W]hats another $4.4 billion in loans, especially when interest rates are as cheap as they’ve ever been? // &! S&P 500 Companies Spend Almost All Profits on Buybacks - bloom.bg/1ECu06U // &! Companies have been gobbling up their own shares at an exceptional rate. There are good reasons to worry about this [...] The companies in the S&P 500 index bought $500 billion of their own shares in 2013, close to the high reached in the bubble year of 2007, and eating up 33 cents of every dollar of cashflow. [...] [$650 billion of cash overseas] [ leading firms to skimp on long-term investment] [firms are being sensible by restraining investment in the face of economic uncertainty] - econ.st/1t90jry //
M&A  Stock  buyback  productive  investment  underinvestment  GFC  bubble  asset  allocation  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  Amazon  Apple  s&p500  recovery  austerity  Western  World  secular  stagnation  hunt  for  yield  compensation  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  dividends  offshore  Taper  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  compensation  package  golden  parachute  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  Moore's  Law  capital  expenditure  corporate  investment  uncertainty  Europe  USA  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  PIGS  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  digital  economy  knowledge  economy  job  creation  Industrial  Revolution  2.0 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England says UK economy to grow by 2.5% in 2015 - BBC News
Mr Carney warned of "underlying weakness" as the Bank gave a gloomier picture for productivity growth. The Bank revised down its productivity forecast because it sees a disproportionate number of new jobs as low-skilled and low-output. Productivity growth is now expected to improve only modestly in the coming year before remaining below past average rates. 'Underinvestment' "Today's report should leave nobody in any doubt about the fundamental role of productivity growth in the UK economy's performance," said Aberdeen Asset Management chief economist Lucy O'Carroll. "The Bank of England has downgraded its growth outlook, and Mark Carney has put poor productivity right at the centre of the story. "He may have put part of the productivity disappointment of recent years down to a disproportionate pick-up in low-productivity jobs, but he has also admitted that underinvestment has played a role." [...] [+ EU&Global (China) headwinds] = in no rush to raise interest rates. &! bbc.in/1RIb9Ah
productivity  UK  job  creation  labour  market  labour  economics  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Services  Industry  service  industrial  policy  structural  imbalance  Impediments  output  gap  recovery  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  USA  precarious  work  Precariat  self-employment  contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  outsourcing  borderless  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  competitiveness  competitive  competition  Manufacturing  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  economic  history  GFC  dot.com  productive  investment  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  ecosystem  education  policy  vocational  education  continual  education  underemployed  employability  long-term  unemployment  structural  unemployment  Revolution  2.0  entrepreneurial  entrepreneurship  Start-up  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  Software  Is  Eating  The  Share  Economy  service  Sector  Jobs  2015  sociology  trust  advice  psychology  anxiety  secular  stagnation  deflationary  digital  knowledge  sharing  shadow  1099  Economy  New  Economy  Venture  Capital  wantrepreneur  Year  of  Code  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  of  economics  of  apprenticesh 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
You Need To Be A Billion Just To Make A Million | TechCrunch
[ especially consumer apps being hit driven business, already, that can go out of fashion as quickly as they came, might be a flash in a pan like Secret & work only on the SV/SF ] Competition in the Valley has started reaching a new peak, with candidates demanding all kinds of accoutrements just to change jobs. But it’s not just recruiting that has become more challenging. Sales, marketing, public relations — essentially every task that a startup has to do is just more difficult today given this cutthroat environment. The only way to respond to the higher threshold has been to raise ever more capital, and earlier as well. We now have the rise of the “instant unicorn” that can raise hundreds of millions of capital in just the first months of a company’s existence. That means companies are already worth billions, before they may have made their first million dollars in revenue or gotten their first million users. That’s the new normal, and founders have to be ready to adapt.
Silicon  Valley  San  Francisco  barriers  to  entry  distortion  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  A  Round  Seed  Round  Angel  Investor  hunt  for  yield  Private  Market  competitive  advantage  ecosystem  burn  rate  runway  MVP  Product/Market  Fit  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  unintended  consequences  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Private  Equity  growth  growth  hacking  growth  hacker  structural  imbalance  Impediments  creative  destruction  Unicorn  competitiveness  competition  competitive  Signal  vs.  Noise  allocation  attention  span  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  Silicon  Alley  HR  human  resources 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Tech Bubble? Maybe, Maybe Not | TechCrunch
6. Exit ratios are dropping = symptom of consolidation (big companies buying up other complimentary companies) // 4. High-end IPO valuations are rising dramatically &! 5. Late-stage financing is displacing exits = symptom of hunt for yield because of NIRP & QE and <5% in other sectors with a slow global economy and flattening of the world. /// The bottom line? If there is a bubble, it’s a different kind of bubble. And this makes sense, because the market and technology landscapes have changed dramatically in the last 15 years. Of course, companies will still fail, and with today’s huge valuations and the accompanying attention, those failures will seem even bigger and splashier. [ie fab.com & path & foursquare] // Taper might be on the horizon for USA, but not for Europe, UK and Japan. // it's a bubble when it bursts. and this time it will be an outside factor like 2008 was .. ppl should play it smart and keep the focus eliminating risks they can eliminate. // &! tcrn.ch/1HWxzHr
Silicon  Valley  speculative  bubbles  speculation  speculative  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  borderless  cost  of  entry  barriers  to  entry  unintended  consequences  complexity  Taper  Abenomics  lost  decade  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  deleveraging  Wall  Street  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice 
march 2015 by asterisk2a
Bubble talk - Sam Altman
There will be downward pressure on valuations as interest rates rise. But I think it will be less than the upward pressure of the phenomenal innovation and earning power of these businesses. Of course, there could be a macro collapse in 2018 or 2019, which wouldn’t have time to recover by 2020. I think that’s the most likely way for me to lose. // via https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9258798 see comments like "Asking a VC to determine whether or not there is a VC bubble is like asking a mortgage broker or real estate agent whether or not there was a housing bubble during 2006."
Silicon  Valley  ZIRP  NIRP  bond  bubble  hunt  for  yield  distortion  QE  Wall  Street  POMO  GFC  speculative  bubbles  speculation  speculative  Venture  Capital  angelinvestor  angel-list  Angel  Investor  business  model 
march 2015 by asterisk2a
Don't Be Awful: Former SF Bay Guardian Editor Tim Redmond - YouTube
end of talk >> "how we respond to economic disruption without human disruption" << also universal basic income &! money talks, not democracy and long-term views &! // via - http://pando.com/2015/02/17/the-anti-tech-backlash-is-over-now-lets-talk-san-francisco-housing/ "The “Anti-Tech Backlash” is over, now let’s talk San Francisco housing" &! &! commuting is a bad thing; (1) greenhouse gases, (2) time consuming (3) stress (4) lost productivity &! &! profit maximisation - building +2m a piece condos vs 250-500k houses // also! companies get generous tax breaks (like in london via tax loopholes, tax evasion/tax avoidance not being challenged by HMRC) they don't need!!! &! &! &! http://pando.com/2012/12/01/san-francisco-can-become-a-world-capital-first-it-needs-to-get-over-itself/
San  Francisco  commuting  commuter  Los  Angeles  Start-Up  Scene  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Gentrified  gentrification  cost  of  living  capitalism  profit  maximisation  Silicon  Valley  realestate  regulators  speculative  bubbles  speculation  speculative  Career  Politicians  Policy  Makers  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  No  Representation  democracy  Gini  coefficient  poverty  error  folly  California  fairness  Universal  Basic  Income  disruption  urban  planning  Future  of  Work  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  automation  algorithm  AI  artificial  intelligence  augmented  intelligence  inequality  inequality  workless  underemployed  knowledge  worker  White-collar  squeezed  middle  class  Blue-collar  working  poor  labour  economics  labour  market  Share  Economy 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
WhatsApp Gets a Warm Welcome Into Facebook - Bloomberg View
People make fun of tech froth, and, I mean, sure, why not, Facebook did pay $19 billion for a company with $10 million in 2013 revenue, but here regular old accounting comes off looking just a bit silly as well.
ARPU  WhatsApp  Facebook  business  model  M&A  speculation  speculative  Mark  Zuckerberg 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
The Meteoric Acceleration in Series A Valuations
Series A valuations have doubled in 6 mo's, passing median Series B valuations from 10 yrs ago, acc to @ttunguz; the valuation explosion is likely due to capital tripling within the Seed fund raising market; if the trend continues & A replaces B, then Seed is the new A. ... // is it A: Maturity of New Economy business case. or B: hunt for yield. or C: increased occurrence of soft-landing/acquihire. or D: FOMO. or E: Increased cost for Start-ups to reach next business/product stage due to crowding and competition for talent. or F: All of the above. & http://pando.com/2014/11/03/neas-jon-sakoda-its-not-just-startups-vcs-would-be-wise-to-prepare-for-leaner-times/ & http://pando.com/2014/11/05/whats-beneath-the-recent-spike-in-series-a-valuations/
Silicon  Valley  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculation  speculative  Wall  Street  Super  Rich  1%  distortion  asset  allocation  FOMO  2014  POMO  monetary  policy  TARP  Bailout  failure  acqui-hire  acquihire 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Frankreich: Kommunen vor der Pleite | Europa Aktuell - YouTube
CHF, EUR Credit derivative
motive, Dexia bankers who wrote that product speculated on CHF appreciation. thus higher interest payments,
derivatives  SIV  speculation  banks  bank  dexia  france  municipal  banking  product  speculative 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Debt and Redemption (Marije Meerman, VPRO Backlight 2010) - YouTube
Debt and Redemption (Marije Meerman, VPRO Backlight 2010) - Mar 25, 2011

All over Europe, governments dressed up their accounts by buying exotic financial products from major investment banks. Then came the crash.
Debt and Redemption shows how local authorities in Italy are struggling with the disastrous aftermath of their deals. The city of Milan has decided to strike back by charging four banks with fraud. The banks, as a matter of course, deny any wrongdoing.
Marije Meerman visits Milan and the village Polino Italy and travels to the US, where she speaks to writer/journalist Matt Taibbi (Rolling Stone, Griftopia), investor/blogger Reggie Middleton (Boombustblog) and former IMF economist Simon Johnson (13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown).
JosephCassano  AIG  Interestrateswap  CDS  derivatives  MattTaibbi  Italy  subprime  complexity  wallstreet  Milan  goldmansachs  Greece  fraud  PIIGS  europe  ECB  history  oligopol  oligarchy  sovereign  debt  crisis  IMF  monopoly  ReggieMiddleton  speculation 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
SEC Charges Muddy Waters, Carson Block In Stock Manipulation Ring | zero hedge
Update: As expected, this is a hoax. Someone is very pissed with the Muddy Waters boys.
hoax  hedgefunds  JohnPaulson  speculation  China  investment  2011 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
John Taylor: "Next Year Is Going To Be Truly Miserable" And QE 3 Will Come | zero hedge
if there is no QE3, are about to get much worse: "Next year is going to be pretty miserable." The reason: the same one that caused us to predict, correctly, late in 2010 when we mocked Goldman's call for a US economic renaissance, namely that with the Fed blowing its wad on QE2 at a time when fiscal "consolidation" was about to become the norm in Washington, that the impact of monetary policy would have an increasingly less pronounced impact. We are surprised by how few people still get it: that cutting deficits at the same time as monetary easing is ending, will be an unmitigated disaster for the economy, and, yes, eventually the markets: "I'm afraid that the cutting the deficit means cutting final demand. It means the economy is going to slow. It might not be a bad thing to cut the deficit, but unfortunately, when you cut the deficit, you're going to get a slowdown. The more you cut the deficit, the worse it's going to be."
QE3  recovery  USA  fiscal  monetary  policy  Fed  stimulus  demand  2011  2012  QE-2.0  greatrecession  double-dip  bubble  speculation  wallstreet  deflation  inflation 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant And James Turk Discuss The Endgame Of The Keynesian Experiment | zero hedge
"who benefit from zero interest rates and how savers are penalized by this easy money policy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VcN_Z6L0jM&feature=player_embedded#at=258
- speculative asset classes doe benefit from ZIRP
- Savers a loosing out. WallStreet winning
- negative saving yield rate
ZIRP  QE  QE-2.0  QE3  2011  monetary  policy  wallstreet  speculation  commodities  equities  history  JimGrant 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
All Roads Lead to Athens? | zero hedge
"From my vantage point, the trip to Greece is a little bit pleasure but mostly political. While Canada is definitely in better shape than Greece, there are some eery similarities. In particular, household debt in Canada is at record levels, spurring a Canada bubble of historic proportions, which is also aided and abated by Canada's mortgage monster. When this bubble pops -- and it eventually will -- the economy will get hit hard and our Canadian dollar will tank (still think if CAD reaches 1.10, it's a short!) and our bonds will rally (that's why Canadian bonds are still valuable)."

Add: Commodities, Speculation, VIX down, ... Australia a bubble too. Brazil. etc. 
... G8 ZIRP = created new local bubbles
... money hunts down yield, how irrational it is does not matter, as long as it bring real returns.
canada  bubble  2011  ZIRP  australia  commodities  speculation  QE  QE-2.0  hot-money 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
USD Short Covering, EUR Capitulation Ending, Silver Spec Longs At Two Year Lows | zero hedge
EXAMPLE how traders blow things up. In a bull market, everyone is a genius. 

And probably more important, now that speculative fervor is all the talk, the silver net long positioning by non-commercials, contrary to conventional wisdom, is not only at an all time high, nor was it recently, but instead in the last week plunged to a level last seen back in April 2009. Net silver exposure has dropped by almost 60% since its recent peak in February (40,937 contracts), and at this point it seems all speculators have left the party. The new base is now being rebuilt based on much firmer hands.
Silver  bubble  speculation  2011 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Business: Washington Post Business Page, Business News
timing is the essence of investments medium to long-term. including speculators and traders.
You can be right with your call, but if you are too early ... the market runs against you no matter what. And when you lost your money ... then the market turns.
Timing is easy for long-term investors like warren buffet, he sees things 10-20yrs. 1-2 yrs off does not make a big mark.
MeredithWhitney  timing  warrenbuffet  investment  speculation 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Facebook Drives SecondMarket Broking $1 Billion Private Shares - Bloomberg
Second-Market’s most serious competitor is San Bruno, California-based SharesPost. Other rivals include Gate Technologies LLC in New York and Xpert Financial Inc. of San Mateo, California. Investment banks also buy and sell private- company shares for their clients, sometimes via SecondMarket. Venture-capital firms that want to buy or sell shares often use SecondMarket or its competitors, or trade informally among themselves and with employees or former employees of private venture-backed companies.

The Securities Act of 1933 restricts purchases of private- company stock to what it defines as “accredited” investors. In the case of individuals, that means people with a net worth of at least $1 million or $200,000 in annual income. In Coffee’s view, inflation has made the standards less meaningful.
“It allows the middle class to enter into a dangerous world of limited information and fluctuating liquidity,” he says.
investment  strategy  venturecapital  startup  VC  net-worth  income  speculation  economics  markets  liquidity 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
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