KKR steigt bei Springer ein mit 43%. Mit Bestandsgarantie fuer die grossen marken wie Bild die die Erbin und der CEO gefordert haben.
Print und Alte Stellen werden gestrichen weil kein Wachstum/ROI.
Fokus auf Anzeigenportal (mini/vertical Facebook). Order was halbes wie Bild - content (clickbait) um Anzeigen zu verkaufen.
Grosse Unsicherheit.

Heuschrecken 2.0 - Loan Shark 2.0 // Meyohas has said he decided to set up Greybull in the wake of the financial crisis, when traditional banks withdrew lending, as he spotted an opportunity to charge higher fees. [...] The Scunthorpe steelworks is one of the last two left in Britain along with Port Talbot in south Wales, after the Redcar facility on Teesside closed in 2015. It supplies steel for customers including Network Rail and supports 22,000 jobs in its supply chain, on top of 4,500 direct employees.

==24hrs later==
British Steel staves off threat of collapse – without state help

[...] British Steel’s private equity owner, Greybull Capital, and its bank lenders are still understood to feel that the government must either agree a Brexit deal that dispels the cloud of uncertainty hanging over the business, or contribute some cash soon.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/16/british-steel-plans-at-present-to-pay-workers-as-normal-in-may

&! Theresa May departure could not come at a worse time. Gov taking their eyes off Steel Industry
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/25/british-steel-stricken-could-government-step-in

The money should be supporting music in state schools, says Robert Verkaik, the author of Posh Boys, How the English Public Schools Ruin Britain. “Taxpayers have the right to know why so much is being given to well-off families to pay the fees for their children to attend high-profile private schools like these. Is it any wonder that the world of dance and music is over-represented by performers who come from wealthy backgrounds?” he says.

doesn't even need social engineering. just very targeted, knowing their business, hacking attack (eg phishing through password change see podesta) and remain undetected for a long time just listening in on the email inbox. and jumping in when the situation comes. // in the end encryption didn't help. would help if there were a 2-auth process for those transactions (business ops, business it security) if you cant be 100% sure that your employees fall for phishing, impersonation, or social engineering (there have been reports of secretaries and assistants falling for social engineering to transfer large amounts for bogus but believable business transactions)

more online shopping, less high street (high street had to be profitably managed down). More spending on experience.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/07/food-inflation-doubles-uk-shoppers-feel-pinch [ are there sensible consumers out there, and wait out the next 2 years?!!! reality of Brexit should be by now, has to be digested by consumer, as always the lag indicator of most. FDI and business investement is first, and was first to scale back! ] A report from the British Retail Consortium and KPMG found that the spurt in consumer spending seen in the run-up to Christmas had come to an abrupt halt, with the result that non-food sales are falling for the first time since the economy was flirting with a double-dip recession in November 2011.

Further evidence that consumers are becoming more cautious was provided by the the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, which released figures on Monday showing a drop of more than 4% in private car sales last month.

the trick is up for tory austerity soon, when the private debt/household debt bubble bursts. and or the uk economy comes to a standstill. /// London has driven out the real wealth creators - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dyk1t4wEDAE - democracy by houses, bc renters have no rights, &! Money , banks, debt seems not to matter in status quo economics - Prof Steve Keen on Parasitic Banking Sector London School of Economics - https://youtu.be/Kh99jEE18KY GFC recovery is not recovery it is Japanese style stagnation! ex imigration¬!

The Institute for Financial Studies is predicting that households will be almost 20% worse off by 2021 - IFS calculations show that average household incomes will be 18% lower in 2021-22 than could have been reasonably expected before the financial crisis in 2007-08 - “One of the biggest drivers of the rise in child poverty is policy choices, which is why it is essential that the prime minister and chancellor use the upcoming budget to put in place measures to stop this happening. An excellent start would be to ensure families can keep more of their earnings under the universal credit.”

Danach kamen die Übertreibungen am US-Immobilienmarkt, im Süden der Eurozone und auf den Rohstoffmärkten. Wir haben es mit einer Kette wandernder Blasen zu tun, die von der Geldpolitik getrieben werden. Die neue Blase bildet sich nie dort, wo zuvor die alte geplatzt ist. Die Regierungen reagieren auf einen Crash mit schärferen Regeln, aber die Spekulation ist ihnen immer einen Schritt voraus.

during conservative conference // century of the self. // crumbs off the table //

And almost the entire establishment's appeal to the electorate was rejected. One member of the cabinet pointed to the problem: "they don't believe us".
Right now, it is not at all inevitable that's a problem the current generation of politicians will ever be able to fix.

[ growing for growth sake! vs growing in a world/area that is not conducive to grow ] When Twitter went public in 2013, its stock soared and its value jumped to $25 billion. Its founders and early investors got rich. But since then, the company has been considered a failure, despite the fact that it boasts 320 million active users, because it's not growing fast enough. Douglas Rushkoff, author of "Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus: How Growth Became the Enemy of Prosperity," talks to Steve Paikin about why he sees the push for more growth as dangerous. // true capitalists (shareholder, crony, greedy) w/o self-regulation or governance extract all the value there is to extract and then leave, dispersing it to the few who already have [...] WE MUST REWRITE THE RULES OF THE GROWTH GAME ITSELF! [...] you want to optimise the economy based on velocity of money (circulation of money), not share price and value extraction [...]

[80% of 2015 GDP growth was consumer related][home improvement is bell weather signal] [...] Over the past decade British waistlines have expanded with obesity reaching crisis levels. Yet the ONS estimates that, in the home at least, the number of calories consumed has been falling. [...] Another significant change is the value put on “transport services” provided by households. This week record car sales were reported, jumping to more than 500,000 in March alone, yet the number of miles driven by households – to go to work or the shops, collecting children from school, etc – remains significantly below the levels recorded a decade ago. [...] It attributed the fall to petrol costs and pressure on household budgets after the financial crash. [...] . Time spent on DIY is down the most – by 20% since 2005. ...

Eine Milliarde Dollar (880 Millionen Euro) leiht sich der Musikdienst laut "Wall Street Journal" bei Finanzinvestoren und der Großbank Goldman Sachs. Spotify verspricht den Geldgebern neben Zinszahlungen auch Anteile am Unternehmen. Wie viel Spotify zahlen muss und in welcher Größenordnung Anteile den Besitzer wechseln, hängt davon ab, wann die Schweden an die Börse gehen. Mit jedem Halbjahr, in dem das Start-up die Erstemission herauszögert, wird es jedenfalls teurer.

Das macht den Deal hochriskant für Spotify: Von Profitabilität ist der Dienst weit entfernt, 2014 fuhr der Dienst einen Verlust von 162 Millionen Euro ein. Die neuen Schulden könnten das Unternehmen in einen ruinösen Strudel von schrumpfenden Geldreserven, drückender Zinslast und immer mieseren Börsenaussichten reißen. [...] [ M&A out of question ] &! bit.ly/1MYHBK4 &! on.recode.net/1oo4GQ1

Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!

BIS 100% of private debt and finance sector larger than 3.9% of economy bad ... and siphoning off talent from more productive fields of work. And finance favours lending to property and land (low productivity). [...] financial products (derivatives) do not help economy. is just a financial product, fee collection. rentier! rent-seeking behaviour! fees fees fees. (JP Morgan, 89% of profits, see interview) [...] QE reflated asset prices/share prices! // In the second half, Max interviews David Graeber about his new book, The Utopia of Rules: On Technology, Stupidity and the Secret Joys of Bureaucracy.

In order to generate artificial economic growth, the ECB wants banks to make as many loans as possible, no matter how stupid or idiotic. They believe that economic growth is simply a function of loans. The more money that’s loaned out, the more the economy will grow. This is the sort of theory that works really well in an economic textbook. But it doesn’t work so well in a history textbook. Cheap money encourages risky behavior. It gives banks an incentive to give ‘no money down’ loans to homeless people with no employment history. It creates bubbles (like the housing bubble from 10 years ago), and ultimately, financial panics (like the banking crisis from 8 years ago). Banks are supposed to be conservative, responsible managers of other people’s money. When central bank policies penalize that practice, bad things tend to happen.

growth at all cost - is gone. // What's the math? - "Hype Smoothie" - how mutual funds and private equity value their investments?

You don’t have to read everything Pando has written in the past few years to know some of the things we’re not big on. Bro-ish behavior, breaking laws, the cult of disruption, Silicon Valley companies hiring dangerous political operatives, and dictating your business strategy based on how much money you can raise. To name just a few. You only have to read Farhad Manjoo’s excellent piece on Zenefits last week that detailed how staff were told to turn their t-shirts inside out when they went to bars, or the Journal’s latest story about how Zenefits HR had to circulate a memo asking people not to have sex in the stairwells anymore to know this was a company right up there with “Boober” and the college emails of Evan Spiegel... //&! Zenefits: Were the Valley's kingmakers wrong, or did they just lie? - bit.ly/1SS6bDv //&! The Inside Story Of The Meltdown at $4.5 Billion Unicorn Zenefits - soundcloud.com/jay-yarow/zenefits - the sky is the limit! hyperbole. doubling every year... landgrab!

extraction of fat. no skin in the game. // Privatisation of housing stock - social and affordable, anglo saxon capitalism style; profit maximisation, dividends. // after Goldman Sachs the new vampiresquid // no skin in game; get money for speculation from pension funds, other investors, mutual funds. << that is the system! // nur wer geld hat, kann es vermehren. // nearly no governance, no guidelines regarding sustainability, ethics, transparency, morals. // no regulation = big profit and exploitation, corruption, bribery.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuschreckendebatte // companies turned into financial instruments. // fictionalisation of economy // >> money spend (debt) on hostile takeover/LBO/MBO/M&A are tax deductible! << = invest in debt, rather than equity! & carried interest is only taxed at 15% max. still can reduce it w deductions xyz. // !!! NO SKIN IN THE GAME !!! Nassim Taleb //

Many have argued that we overstate the importance of housing and household debt in explaining the Great Recession and weak recovery. They point to the banking crisis, policy uncertainty, or excessive regulation as equally or even more important. The data released today by the BEA show pretty clearly that the arguments we make in House of Debt remain relevant for thinking about economic weakness today. In our view, the explanation we provide is the most consistent with the striking difference in consumption across states. // From Comments: Without real median income rising you can’t grow in an economy based on debt expansion

All of 2015’s totals lived and died on mega-deals. Mega-deals were the reason that the total amount invested in the year was one of the highest on record, even though the actual number of deals fell. It’s the reason the fourth quarter’s venture capital total fell so sharply when mega deals declined some 45%. //&! As America faces the techpocalypse, how are things going in Europe? - bit.ly/1ndNFZt //&! If Doordash is struggling to close funding with Sequoia as a lead, how bad are things at your startup? - bit.ly/1njD8v9 - Doordash is a fundable company, just not at the prices originally discussed… and maybe not even at $600 million. //&! Asian venture capital in 2016: This could get ugly… - It has the farthest to fall, and the newest investors - bit.ly/1Pg8vla

Weak economic data is casting doubt on the future performance of the UK economy, with inflation persistently well below the Bank of England's 2% target and earnings growth slowing down from a six-year high. Earlier this month, figures for November showed that UK industrial output had suffered its sharpest decline since 2013. Looking further ahead, investors are worried about the outcome of a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU. As Andy Scott of foreign exchange services firm HiFX put it: "Concerns over the UK economy and the risk of a Brexit look likely to continue to haunt sterling." Traders are also generally more risk-averse in the light of the global turmoil caused by Chinese market problems and falling oil prices, which makes them reluctant to buck sterling's downward trend.

Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks

[ chicago school of economics ] 17:25 - private debt // demand will never be again so starong as before GFC. growth of debt/credit is normal. but without growth and high debt is cancer. + current account deficit/trade deficit = means things for UK can not go in indefinitely. austerity will run its course, will not make things better. next is property bubble! and NPL as normalisation to 2% nears // China margin trading & leverage via credit bubble. property bubble. // 24:20 - there is still room to grow household/private debt. Tories treat gov budget like a household rather than a bank! UK will stumble along at lower rate than America. Will not get better! Just rearranging deck chairs of a painfully slowly sinking ship.

most profitable credit card debt customers are those making just the minimum payment. ... a credit card being a statement of status! retaining customers by upgrading them regularly w higher limits, new colors, new perks (they will never use). // unsecured lending - DEFINITION of 'Unsecured Loan' A loan that is issued and supported only by the borrower's creditworthiness, rather than by a type of collateral. An unsecured loan is one that is obtained without the use of property as collateral for the loan. // revolving debt // the higher your credit limit, the more you are likely to spend. // half of his income to just serve credit card fees and interest charges (no payments towards paying down) debt ... // banks lend irresponsibly bc they know they can get away with it, or somebody else will do it! because there is not regulation. no bank oversight. //&! The Truth about Payday Loans :Young, British and Broke - youtu.be/-yWxTvffbuE //&! Gambling/Betting Shops on Highstreet.

the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling. [...] The next thing is to give money to Main Street. [...] Either way, money will be printed out of thin air and given to you. That’s what’s coming next. Possibly after a failed attempt at demanding negative interest rates from the banks. But coming it is. [...] Once people lose faith in their currency all bets are off. The smart people will be those who take their fresh central bank money and spend it before the next guy.

Technology Destroying Jobs + While the big driver of the decline in economic growth since the 1980’s has been a structural change from a manufacturing based economy (high multiplier effect) to a service based one (low multiplier effect), it has been exacerbated by the increase in household debt to offset the reduction in wage growth to maintain the standard of living. This is shown clearly in the chart below. [...] In fact, each job created in energy-related areas has had a “ripple effect” of creating 2.8 jobs elsewhere in the economy from piping to coatings, trucking and transportation, restaurants and retail. Simply put, lower oil and gasoline prices may have a bigger detraction on the economy than the “savings” provided to consumers.

Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M

[ the budget a excel spreadsheet in No 10, with grades @ the end what upsets donors & what upsets the minimum of potential voters - is Career Politicans calculated approach. & shifting a public item off the balance sheet onto the private balance sheet! again! the debt is still there! & what does Tory gov support? Home Buyers! ] Civil justice is unaffordable for most people, more people are being forced to represent themselves, and judges – whose pensions have been cut – feel under-appreciated, according to the lord chief justice. [...] “Our system of justice has become unaffordable to most,” Thomas said in the introduction to his report. “In consequence there has been a considerable increase of litigants in person for whom our current court system is not really designed. //&! Court fees jeopardise Magna Carta principles, says lord chief justice. Mandatory court charges of up to £1,200 put justice beyond reach of majority, says Lord Thomas - bit.ly/1ZXfhAE &! bbc.in/1RmyLMD

Student nurses and midwives have marched in protest at the government's decision to scrap their bursaries in England and replace them with loans. [...] The Royal College of Nursing said fear of debt would put people off training. // shifted another budget item off the publics balance sheet onto private balance sheet. //&! Spending Review: Grants for student nurses are being scrapped - bbc.in/1jk5kLW //&! NHS nursing levels: Nine in 10 hospitals missing targets - The vast majority of hospitals in England are struggling to recruit enough nurses, figures show. Some 92% of the 225 acute hospital trusts in England did not manage to run wards with their planned number of nurses during the day in August. The figures, published by the NHS, show that hospitals in England are falling short of their own targets for levels of safe staffing. - bbc.in/1Pfuzuq

home ownership in UK is biggest item of UK's household wealth. 2/3rd of housing is owned. other 3rd is rented. that is why the property bubble/prices have to be kept afloat. otherwise balance sheet recession > deleveraging > debt servitude > lower consumption rate > cratering UK economy as ~70% of UK economy is based on consumption. // blaming others (ISIS) for radicalization. but who put them in this place to be radicalized, in the first place? inequality, youth unemployment. // COP21, western world do not face their historical obligation! // world wealth and income database - www.wid.world

I predicted the second quarter of 2015 had to be peak mega round. Turns out, I was three months off. But now it’s official: The shit is hitting the fan. [...] In the third quarter, venture funding hit dot com funding levels with 2008 deals and $38.7 billion raised. In the fourth quarter, we saw the lowest deal tally since 2013, with just 1743 deals raising some $27.3 billion.

[ repeat phrases - "strong economy", "strong economy, strong NHS" ] The UK faces a "cocktail" of serious threats from a slowing global economy as 2016 begins, Chancellor George Osborne has warned. Speaking in Cardiff, Mr Osborne said this year is likely to be one of the toughest since the financial crisis. He told business leaders that far from "mission accomplished" on the economy, "2016 is the year of mission critical". His message is in stark contrast to the positive tone of his Autumn Statement, when he said the UK was "growing fast". [...] that the Autumn Statement had put in place a four-year plan to restore the UK's public finances, and make the economy more productive, with businesses more competitive so they could create jobs. [...] Mr Osborne told the Today programme the UK's economic recovery was not "a debt-fuelled recovery", citing the support of the governor of the Bank of England in his assessment. [ not public, but private household debt! ]

Just how punishing that price was became clear in late September. In an investor document about the sale that was distributed to shareholders, employees discovered their Good stock was valued at 44 cents a share, down from $4.32 a year earlier. In contrast, preferred stock owned by Good’s venture capitalists was worth almost seven times as much, more than $3 a share. The paperwork also showed that Good’s board had turned down an $825 million cash offer just six months earlier, in March. // via https://redd.it/3yehai

Families are expected to run up £40bn of debt this year, sparking fears about Britain’s economic recovery. [...] (OBR) forecasts have found that households have moved from a surplus of £67bn in 2010, the year the coalition took power, to a £40bn deficit this year. Unsustainable borrowing is on course to near the levels reached in the run-up to the 2008 financial crash, according to Labour. Seema Malhotra, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “George Osborne is relying on millions of British families going further into debt to hit his growth targets. [ as projected by economists, that household had to take up debt, shifting debt burden off the public balance sheet, when austerity plans were revealed together with LibDems, to meet growth targets/estimates, back then. same w decistions to increase student loans, convert grants into loan ie for nursing, remove allowances and grants. same w the green bank. shifting items off the balance sheet. and underinvestment. ]

[ moving another item off the books/balance sheet onto others, in this case, the private purse. and when tories came to power together with lib dems - they did cut part of funding for places ] Plans to axe bursaries and replace them with loans have been condemned by unions, but universities say they will lead to more training places for nurses, midwives and allied health professionals [...] Unions fear a loan system will be an obstacle to people from poorer backgrounds and career changers. Midwifery in particular attracts a large number of mature students over 29 – many of whom bring with them vital existing experience of childbirth – but are already saddled with debt from a first degree. //&! bit.ly/1HNLIMj

Consumer spending is driving economic growth but household debt and the house price-income ratio is at a record high. Be afraid [...] It is worth recalling that when Osborne became chancellor five and a half years ago that he had two big objectives. The first was to repair the hole in the public finances, which is still very much a work in progress. The other was to shift the centre of gravity of the economy back towards making things for export. This remains a pipedream. [...] Despite the welcome pickup in business investment, the main driver of growth has been consumer spending, which has been boosted by low interest rates, the fall in inflation caused by lower oil prices, and a modest acceleration in earnings. [...] “not the ideal shape for the recovery” and it can say that again. The current recovery looks like all the previous recoveries. [...] “Fast-rising household debt is needed to maintain a reasonable rate of growth in consumers’ spending and GDP in a world of austerity ...

“Unicorns have priced themselves out of the public market,” said Gurley, adding that the valuations are “all on paper. It’s all a myth.” He issued a call for startups to return to business fundamentals. “We need to refocus on building real businesses that are sustainable,” Gurley said. “I personally wish the market would bring them all down so that we could get to a more sane place.”

33:40 Price Increase 13.1% 2013/14. Big Pharma + Lobby + insurance company + letting itself being sugar-coated-medical profession = medical-industrial complex. A cosy relationship. // Big Sugar. Big Tobacco. Big Oil/Fossil Fuel. // US spends more % (18%) of GDP on medical related expenses than any other developed/western country. //&! 44:40 - VW! No.1 air polluter is private automobil. "we are not talking about more profits. but maximising profits while accepting the contribution to air pollution and death of the vulnerable (asthma). [...] fraud. that caused who know how many people. [...] example of what capitalism is. if there is more money to make. do it." [+ Zeitarbeit, Leiharbeit exploitation] "deadly behaviour of conglomerates (many recalls blamed on complexity of car) in a rational society, but no questions have been asked." [] [Underinvestment in public transportation in USA. 1/2 of Berlin citizens have no car. tell that LA.] "Decision to Deceive. Knowingly harm People."

[ the plastic bag chage, 5p, is not enough, should be 50p and seen as penalty! thus it is the little brother of Sugar/Processed Food/junk food/fast food/and animal product taxation (extra levies) to show people every day when they show that they know this is more expensive now because this has to pay for my sick days in later life, like insurance premium for risky behavior, to fund NHS! Even seeing it as carbon tax and environmental levy because of how dirty animal products are! ]"It's now becoming second nature to shoppers to reuse their carrier bags and hopefully to think more about our impact on the environment." [...] Asda witnessing a drop of 90% and Sainsbury's 100% as it no longer offers them to shoppers. [...] The policy came into being in Scotland on 20 October last year and England introduced charging at the beginning of this month.

10:45 - offering things (therapy) that are gratifying. but addiction therapy is hard work and should be nothing else. even for the family member. all you have to do as family member to sit below while you watch your loved one on the high wire hoping he will not fall down from the wire up there high above. that will eventually end up in disaster. [ applies to food addiction, feeding your emotions, unable to normally regulate your emotions, coming with environment - like work and family, stressed out, ... ]

Krieg Die Geschichte der Kriege hört nicht auf, sie ändern nur ihre Form und ihre Gestalt: Herfried Münklers neuer Wälzer // Kriegssplitter: Die Evolution der Gewalt im 20. und 21. Jahrhundert Herfried Münkler Rowohlt 2015, 400 S., 24,95 €

[ so who is actually going to pay tax? to repair roads, winder service, replace street lights, clean the city, police, NHS, ... to fund councils budgets that are already deep in the red and are cut further over the next 5 years. Public libraries, pools, social care, etc etc. dismantling britian. framing it as job creator. as if tax cuts create demand! lol. its a race to the bottom. ] Colin Borland, the Federation of Small Businesses' (FSB) head of external affairs in Scotland, said it was good news that cutting the cost of doing business was "at the heart of the deputy first minister's message". He said: "If used appropriately, these powers could give local economies a welcome boost and it will be interesting to see how many hard-pressed councils will be able to take advantage of them." UK Chancellor George Osborne has promised local authorities in England more flexibility over business rates by 2020.

We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....

https://youtu.be/bxNB4-7QNYA - CEO of IRONMAN, Andrew Messick. Slightly talk about new owner Wanda Group.

But, as I mentioned, the disclosure that we were a bit richer in the last parliament than we thought is not all fabulous news for the chancellor. He and his Treasury colleagues should probably be anxious that the faster growth did not translate into higher tax revenues. In case you need reminding, George Osborne singularly failed to hit the deficit reduction targets he set himself. But the explanation can no longer be that the economy flatlined, because that's not what happened. So if the higher-than-thought growth in the last parliament left the gap between government revenues and expenditures tens of billions of pounds greater than George Osborne hoped, it also suggests that his aspiration of eliminating the deficit in this parliament may prove equally elusive. //&! Despite strong employment growth, wage growth remained historically weak - the usual link between falling unemployment and rising wages seemed to have been broken. - bbc.in/1OEffcS

via - http://schiffgold.com/interviews/former-wall-street-insider-some-form-of-bank-bail-ins-will-come-to-us-video/ ||&! QE and ZIRP bad policy, bank and market cuddeling. no mainstreet recovery! trickle-down failed. Private sector can not carry existing minimal momentum forward. policy has not helped people on the ground. // many bubbles created: junk bond/zombie corps, car loans, student loans, property, ... // transition to destruction, volatility is first sign. // market manipulation! // inflated financial system // rise in NPL! where how will they cover that? another bailout? or bail-in. taking depositors haircut. FDIC can't cover that all.

The activist says low rates caused bubbles in art, real estate and high-yield bonds—with potentially dramatic consequences.

[ has to put away 10% of disposable income/earnings ?pre-tax?, put it in equities, and open the envelope only after 60-70 years. ] The average 35-year-old has to save £660,000 into a pension plan if they have any hope of matching the standard of living enjoyed by today’s pensioners – but have so far managed to put aside just £14,000.

Nearly 100,000 children in England are living in temporary accommodation after being made homeless, new figures show. // &! More & more student start work after graduation in low pay jobs not requiring a diploma, due to current job market/job creation situation in UK! Not hitting 21k repayment threshold - bbc.in/1OU0K3H - OBR show fewer are likely to start paying than was expected when the policy was introduced, [...] freezing the loan repayment threshold - alongside other changes such as replacing maintenance grants for poorer students with loans - will significantly increase the cost of going to university. It says this risks undermining pledges by successive governments to improve social mobility, as well as raising uncertainty in students' minds over the terms of their borrowing. //&! Higher education cuts 'risk NI being left behind' - bbc.in/1gZMrgj //&! Doctors warn Tories not to cut free school meals (child poverty, food poverty) bbc.in/1LewQrn

The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets

Mortgage brokers said that the relatively low mortgage rates on offer could be a response to a mismatch of supply and demand. "The mortgage market remains over supplied with lenders having more money to lend than there are people looking for home loans. This means criteria will have to loosen and rates will have to remain low to ensure lenders hit their volume targets," said Mark Harris, chief executive of SPF Private Clients. "For many, the main issue is not so much finding a cheap mortgage rate but being able to prove affordability to satisfy the lender and meet [the regulator's] tighter criteria."

- zero hedge had chart w student loan bubble standing at 1trn, and some, as of about mid 2015, with car loans about to reach 1trn, and credit card debt. just google 'zero hedge car loan' - Blackstone says car loans are now in "untested" territory - bit.ly/1TO6Gxb - "The takeaway here is simple: under pressure to keep the US auto sales miracle alive and feed Wall Street's securitization machine (which is itself driven by demand from yield-starved investors) along the way, lenders are lowering their underwriting standards and extending loans to underqualified borrowers. [...] This cannot and will not end well." // July - With the US consumer hunkering down in 2015 and barely spending more than in the comparble period last year, the only silver lining had been auto sales driven almost entirely by access to cheap credit; - bit.ly/1QBIWc5

youtu.be/f5_AGIMe32k // much higher $ already put ~25bps on US domestic market. // Fed is a risk manager now // labour market got a check mark, but not inflation bc of tech, stronger$ (taper anticipation), commodities lower, further deflationary pressures (retail price fighting 4 increase like4like sales), globalisation (competition), secular stagnation (continued low growth in western world, lower aggregate demand overall, lower baseline), consumer unable 2pickup where it threw in hat (deleveraging, no savings, debt overhang household, consumer). A new normal of growth of ~3% (give/take) globally aggregate & western wrld (2-2.5%, EU aggregate even lower). In this world, THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION PRESSURE (2% or higher, &3bn ppl free labour wrldwide) IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE REAL ECONOMY 4 EVERY DAY FOLK DOESNT REFLECT REFLATED ASSET PRICES via QE, ZIRP, credit bubbles arnd world enabled by central banks. &! youtu.be/NVa5fkz8X0o &! youtu.be/Ny3bbonX3d0 &! 1.usa.gov/1JdKZxp

[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4

B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!

[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4

As somebody who wondered in a column last week whether people in developed countries were perhaps learning that they no longer needed as much stuff as they used to, and whether this might lead to big shifts in the global economy, I read on with great interest. [...] The changes in young adults' consumption habits have clearly been influenced by economic forces. But economic forces shape societal attitudes, too. I also don't see much sign that these economic forces are about to reverse. Both these things can be true: The median 25-to-34-year-old has less to spend, and is less interested in spending it on a car.

At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]

The fact of the matter is that, while George Osborne is obsessed with shrinking the size of the public sector and causing hardship and misery, the real crisis in this country concerns not the size of the budget deficit, but the record peacetime balance-of-payments deficit of a whopping 6% of GDP. With this in mind, John Llewellyn and Russell Jones of Llewellyn Consulting have been urging the Bank to encourage the overvalued pound to fall towards more realistic levels, to avoid an almighty sterling crisis when the markets finally wake up to the real crisis in the British economy.

credit great 4 productive investments 4 the future that will benefit u/me/gov/biz like infrastructure/edu/skills. but waste 4 pure consumption that dont increase productivity in the long run. Like consumer credit spend 2 replace a 2yr old flat screen. vs consumer credit 4 vocational/professional further edu 2 get a higher earning job (future higher income 2 repay the then debt liability & have some more/left over). Bad if u dont have later higher earnings from higher education 2 repay debt & just work in an underemployed placement that any college dropout could do. Thing is, college dropout doesnt have that debt liability that the higher education person has (reduced disposable income bc debt repayment + interest payments.) Women are hit double (gender pay gap) & triple (childcare long-term earnings loss). // min16 income growth important 2 keep up with debt repayment beyond interest. if not, we reached peak long-term debt cycle! // doesnt include globalisation's deflationary effects

German start-ups copy each other now ... It's not the Samwer Brothers anymore, they have already lots on their existing plate (made up of copycats). Add the credit bubble, public market distortions and free cash that is flushing around put into seed rounds, as enabler. #Facepalm // smart heads, small opportunist ideas, x for y locally here in z.

>> what if rise of the banks (deregulation, easy credit, global financial markets - arbitrage, and making money with money) fuelled the growth of the last ~25-30 years. // min 47 3 asset bubbles popped // USA - 40% of corporate profits came from 10% of corporate sector (banks) // 30% of MIT grads went to banks instead of real world engineering and manufacturing. // underwater private sector! via credit bubble: student loans (now 1trn and still rising in USA and UK, future disposable income/discretionary spending lower than babyboomers because of wage stagnation, no wage growth) credit cards, mortgages, heloc (home equity line of credit) --- all will have to focus on paying back debt. // 2015 - us student loans 1.25trn - bit.ly/1KJ29uc + auto loans << bubble to eventually pop when collateral is falling! ie stagnant wages for 10 more years. and more and more cant repay their student loans. // 1:12:00 Bubbles move on; dot.com, real estate (property) & commodities, China,

[Private Sector could not drive recovery! Stupid. And rising (re-flating) asset prices like stocks did not inspire consumers. The reality on the ground is different than asset prices. Inflation targeting is a policy error in hindsight. Question is if policy makers (fiscal and monetary) as willing to admit this, or drag the world through another lost decade & generation!? ] Most forecasters believe consumers will spend the windfall, and thus boost the economy. But almost all of the savings from lower pump prices so far have been used to rebuild household assets and reduce debt. Consumers tend to increase their savings in tough times; they've been doing so during the six-year recovery, even as real wages and median household incomes remain flat. Lower oil prices, however, could come with a downside. As they work their way through the system, deflation could follow. Already, 10 of the 34 largest economies in the world have seen year-over-year declines in consumer prices. [

But it was its market valuation that drove the fascination, and after the stock price collapsed from a high of $974.25 a share in April 1999 to $6.75 in December 2000, people mostly stopped talking about Priceline.com. [...] First, that the huge valuations being attached to today’s leading digital startups probably aren’t all crazy. Second, that those valuations may make it hard for late-round private investors, or the rest of us after the eventual IPOs, to make much money off the insight that Uber or Airbnb or Snapchat is in fact built to last. And finally, the big lesson for these companies may be to set aside a bunch of that investor cash for when times get tough -- and maybe hire a CEO, or at least a general counsel, who is really good at making acquisitions.

50 year long debt super cycle & credit bubble up-held. Put. // hasnt created inflation because of Globalisation = deflationary! [3bn ppl living on $2/day] Collapse of marginal cost of labour, offsetting inflation pressure of QE/NIRP/credit creation last decades. // Will eventually haunt people back once globalisation has run its way in ~100-75 years & the world is actually flat. energy cost 0, marginal cost 0, economics of abundance. // // min 23 AND because of this deflationary pressure of globalisation, excess capacity, etc lead to wage stagnation & or pressure to work 4 less (Contractor, Werkvertrag, Zeitarbeit, self-employment, Zero Hour Contract, outsourcing) and longer, in western world. Leads inevitably 2 being pushed into recession & avoiding that authorities always pushed button 4 more credit. Credit growth prevented western world not 2 be pushed into recession in last decades. 2010 Private Sector cant drive recovery! Massive Gov stimulus needed +10 years, not austerity!

// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!

could see liquidity squeeze. have global credit bubble. Chinas own (2009-Put) did pop, probably just this Summer '15! // may lead 2 zombie banks, if they werent already if it werent 4 PBOC with huge amounts of NPL also within shadow banking system. bit.ly/1FaVAZt policy response could be 2 double down on usual mis-guided measures 2 keep status quo. extend & pretend. // World is still flush, thus currently moderate signs of impact of China slowdown - bit.ly/1EuMVXe - will take time. // &! leverage / margin trading was/is at new highs comparable to 2007 on both side of Pacific (USA/China) - bit.ly/1IxyRXD - so the hurt was/will be big! BIG! underwater. talk abt manufactured balance sheet recession // &! Willem Buiter: Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World Now - bit.ly/1Et5Bq5 - major blast of fiscal spending by PBOC in some months when the hurt cant be ignored any more. Will wait too long, will drag everyone else down. & bit.ly/1NYB5nQ &! youtu.be/3wvQDxJPhQ4 - Jim Rogers.

Private Debt/household debt 2 GDP exceeding 1.5x/150% spells trouble. Chinas pace of Private Debt expansion through credit was unprecedented in % terms compared to any other recent credit bubble (China Put, 2009) on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a // Could now spell balance sheet recession (underwater, servicing debt for worth(less) asset ie stock (+margin trading) or property (inland or overseas)) thus deleveraging of private households. --- Metropolitan property markets across the world have been flooded with speculative money from China & BRIC! Just look at last chart of % of household debt increase bit.ly/1va3oaw Its Russia, China, Brazil, ... // And China banking system & shadow banking system could sit on a lot of NPL coming 2016. Zombie banks in China, ups! PBOC commanded to lend post-2009! // &! bit.ly/1KWkTQY // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 - Steve Keen (Mar 29, 2015) 'with bad models you can't see shocks coming!'