asterisk2a + precarious + code + qe   7

Budget 2016 shows Osborne's failure on debt, surplus, GDP
// higher in-work poverty
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Will Oil Cause the Next Recession? - Bloomberg View
[Private Sector could not drive recovery! Stupid. And rising (re-flating) asset prices like stocks did not inspire consumers. The reality on the ground is different than asset prices. Inflation targeting is a policy error in hindsight. Question is if policy makers (fiscal and monetary) as willing to admit this, or drag the world through another lost decade & generation!? ] Most forecasters believe consumers will spend the windfall, and thus boost the economy. But almost all of the savings from lower pump prices so far have been used to rebuild household assets and reduce debt. Consumers tend to increase their savings in tough times; they've been doing so during the six-year recovery, even as real wages and median household incomes remain flat. Lower oil prices, however, could come with a downside. As they work their way through the system, deflation could follow. Already, 10 of the 34 largest economies in the world have seen year-over-year declines in consumer prices. [
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Headline Numbers: How do you measure inequality? - BBC News
Research from the Institute for Policy Studies found that in 2014, bonuses paid to Wall Street employees had been double the total annual pay earned by all Americans who worked full-time at the federal minimum wage. I crunched the numbers and it turned out that the same was true for the UK. [...] The Office for National Statistics (ONS) had figures out on Wednesday based on the definition that people were in poverty if their income was below 60% of the median level (to find the median income, line up all the people in the country in order of income and take the middle one). It found that almost a third of the UK population had experienced poverty in at least one of the years between 2010 and 2013, which is very high by European standards. The OECD sets out a summary of what has happened to examples of all three of these measures. Across its 34 member countries, the Gini Coefficient rose gradually from 1996, fell slightly for the financial crisis and then resumed its upward path.
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may 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England says UK economy to grow by 2.5% in 2015 - BBC News
Mr Carney warned of "underlying weakness" as the Bank gave a gloomier picture for productivity growth. The Bank revised down its productivity forecast because it sees a disproportionate number of new jobs as low-skilled and low-output. Productivity growth is now expected to improve only modestly in the coming year before remaining below past average rates. 'Underinvestment' "Today's report should leave nobody in any doubt about the fundamental role of productivity growth in the UK economy's performance," said Aberdeen Asset Management chief economist Lucy O'Carroll. "The Bank of England has downgraded its growth outlook, and Mark Carney has put poor productivity right at the centre of the story. "He may have put part of the productivity disappointment of recent years down to a disproportionate pick-up in low-productivity jobs, but he has also admitted that underinvestment has played a role." [...] [+ EU&Global (China) headwinds] = in no rush to raise interest rates. &! bbc.in/1RIb9Ah
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may 2015 by asterisk2a
Autumn Statement 2014: Osborne's Cuts 'Will See Public Spending Fall To Lowest Level In 80 Years'
Tony Dolphin, senior economist at the Institute for Public Policy and Research, warned that Osborne's planned cuts were "implausible". "Given the scale of cuts in the public sector, [the OBR] can only make its growth forecast add up by assuming that consumer demand is boosted by households taking on more debt - and at an unprecedented pace. "Extraordinarily, the OBR thinks that by 2019 the household sector will have a financial deficit twice as big as in 2007 and 2008 when the financial crisis hit. As result, the household debt-to-income ratio is forecast 2 rise beyond its pre-crisis peak 2 over 180%. "This is pretty implausible. If the next government tries 2 follow the deficit reduction path set out in the Autumn Statement, it can only succeed in the short-term because the household sector takes on debt @ a faster pace than it did before the financial crisis. [this warning was heeded some years ago alrdy that consumer&corp would have to take on debt to spend to keep GDP # up!!!]
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december 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Long, long slog to mend public finances
So the job of mending the public finances is a long way from over. The best performing, big developed economy in the world - that's us by the way, as assessed by speed of GDP growth - is generating far less tax than expected. So this year, the Office for Budget Responsibility expects the harvest for the Exchequer from taxation to be £7.8bn less than it predicted in March. And by 2017-18, it says the shortfall will be an eye-watering £21bn. & the biggest shortfall, roughly half of it, is in income tax, which reflects the creation of lots of new low wage jobs & the absence of meaningful pay rises for millions. [...] reflecting a change in the structure of the economy, rather than a passing phenomenon. [AUSTERITY] The OBR calculates that spending per head in real terms in 2019/20 on the public sector minus health and schools would be £1,290, or 57% less than in 2009/10. [... edu & industrial policy not straight ahead towards econ of the future ...] [in this together?] &! bbc.in/1tqUjGz
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december 2014 by asterisk2a

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