asterisk2a + portugal   42

Italy’s €360 billion referendum – POLITICO
Italy’s banking system is staggering under €360 billion in bad loans. Almost any outcome that destabilizes Italian politics would send tremors through the country’s rickety financial system. While the long-term consequences could be dramatic — in a worse case scenario perhaps leading to the collapse of the eurozone — the first victims could be efforts to rescue two of Italy’s largest lenders.
non-performing  NPL  bad  bank  Italy  Referendum  Renzi  contagion  European  Union  systemicrisk  sovereign  debt  crisis  GFC  economic  history  recession  recovery  Austerity  ECB  Banking  Supervision  MarioDraghi  Greece  Spain  Portugal  PIGS  UK  exposure  bailout  bail-in  bailin  recapitalization  recapitalisation 
november 2016 by asterisk2a
What's Next For Portugal? | Zero Hedge
The Portuguese economy cannot afford further delays Under the optimistic scenario forecast by the EU/IMF/ECB Troika, Portuguese debt is still expected to peak at 124% of GDP in 2014. Any delays will likely see this rise quickly, especially with growth already underperforming. Portuguese ten year borrowing costs have already shot up a staggering 1.5% since Gaspar’s resignation, reaching close to 8%. This highlights the fragility of the economic situation. Only a month ago, there was widespread talk of Portugal returning to the markets ahead of schedule – now it is difficult to see how it will exit its bailout programme in spring 2014 without any further assistance (the ECB’s bond buying programme, the OMT, still remains the most likely candidate).
Portugal  debtoverhang  OMT  2013  PIGS  Europe  European  Commission  sovereign  debt  crisis  bail-in  austerity  Troika  PIIGS  greatdepression  ECB  policy  error  greatrecession  policy  folly  bailout 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
17 Signs Of A Full-Blown Economic Depression Raging In Southern Europe | Zero Hedge
The percentage of bad loans in Italian banks has risen to 12.2 percent.  Back in 2007, that number was sitting at just 4.5 percent. Data from Italy's national statistics institute ISTAT showed that the country's economy shrank by 0.9pc in the fourth quarter of last year and gross domestic product was down a revised 2.8pc year-on-year. The Italian economy is in the midst of a horrifying "credit crunch" that is causing thousands of companies to go bankrupt. "The sustainability of Italian public finances is in jeopardy. The euro crisis will therefore return shortly with a vengeance."
Portugal  unemployment  2013  Greece  Spain  NPL  Europe  creditcrunch  zombie  banks  Italy  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  banking  crisis  zombie  consumer  bank  crisis  greatrecession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Zuwanderung von Ingenieuren aus Südeuropa nützt Deutschland - SPIEGEL ONLINE
So absurd es klingen mag: Die Euro-Krise hilft Unternehmen wie Ziehl-Abegg. Denn der Bewerberstrom aus Südeuropa wird in den nächsten Monaten kaum abreißen: Im ersten Halbjahr 2012 kamen netto rund 182.000 Zuwanderer nach Deutschland, 35 Prozent mehr als im Vorjahreszeitraum. Die Zahl der Portugiesen und Spanier stieg gegenüber 2011 um mehr als die Hälfte, die Zahl der griechischen Zuwanderer steig um 78 Prozent. In der Krise gilt Deutschland als letzte Zuflucht vor der Massenarbeitslosigkeit und der tiefen Rezession in ihren Heimatländern.

[...]

Imigration ... Das habe Deutschland auch bitter nötig: "Der demografische Wandel wird uns in 10 bis 15 Jahren voll treffen. Bis dahin müssen wir unser Erwerbspersonenpotential entwickeln", sagt Brücker. Ob der Zustrom aus dem Süden aber noch lange anhält, hält der Ökonom aber für sehr fraglich: "Wir haben eine einmalige Situation. Fast überall in Europa ist Krise, nur in Deutschland nicht. Das bleibt nicht für immer so."
babyboomers  demography  demographics  lostgeneration  lostdecade  greatrecession  germany  emigration  imigaration  2012  Portugal  Greece  Spain  unemployment  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Prof Martin Feldsein on Spanish economy and Euro (28Sept12) - YouTube
Report about anti austerity protests.
Report about politicians in Portugal taking a step back.

Spain, Catalonia, Politics, ...

Social fabric breaks apart.

Decline is subliminal. In-front our eyes, hardly noticeable.
confidence  trust  economic  history  Euro  fiscal  policy  ECB  IMF  fiscal  sovereignty  Pact  Troika  ESM  economics  MarianoRajoy  Catalonia  lostgeneration  greatrecession  Europe  Politics  social  contract  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Spain  Portugal  austerity 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Hunt for Skilled Labor: Germany Woos Portugal's Lost Generation - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
The crisis-hit nations of southern Europe have one booming industry left -- their skilled workers are in high demand in Germany, which has a chronic shortage of qualified labor. German employers in search of nurses and engineers have launched a recruitment drive in Portugal, where over a third of young people are unemployed.
greatrecession  youth  unemployment  Italy  Greece  2012  unemployment  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Spain  Portugal 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: Austerity is a pain. So is tight money | The Economist
What about, say, Greece? After all, it doesn’t have a central bank with independent powers to set monetary policy according to its needs. Recent research suggests that government spending has a large effect on the economy in exactly these circumstances, in which monetary policy is not set at the national level but by a supranational or external authority. Austerity will therefore hurt these countries: at current levels of prices and wages, aggregate demand in Greece is insufficient, and fiscal austerity eats further away at it in the absence of a central bank to pick up the slack.

Research suggests that austerity, besides its harmful effects in a currency union, is politically very costly. the emphasis should be on growth-promoting reforms, not austerity, when there are political limits.

Extent of Internal Devaluation to regain competitiveness - limited.

the ECB has to aggressively stabilise aggregate demand in the euro zone as a whole.
europeanunion  2012  Euro  aggregate  demand  devaluation  Italy  Portugal  PIIGS  competitiveness  debtoverhang  crisis  debt  sovereign  economics  politics  ECB  BOE  policy  fiscal  monetary  austerity  Europe  Greece 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Repairing the Global Plumbing - Mohamed A. El-Erian - Project Syndicate
Unfortunately, the economic outcomes have come nowhere close to matching the intensity of these efforts. Effectively, the central banks have been unconventional bridges to nowhere, owing mainly to their imperfect tools and other government agencies’ inability or unwillingness to act. At some point – and we are nearing it – bridges to nowhere become a standalone risk: they can topple over.
politics  folly  growth  Portugal  Greece  haircut  UK  USA  Europe  crisis  debt  sovereign  GFC  2012  recession  balancesheet  richardkoo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  LTRO  BOE  Fed  ECB  policy  fiscal  monetary 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Head Of Eurogroup Admits To Lying About "Secret Greek Meeting" Out Of Fears For Market Collapse - "When It Becomes Serious, You Have To Lie" | zero hedge
On the tape, Mr. Juncker says he has “had to lie” and, speaking about touchy economic topics, “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”
EMU  Europe  Euro  PIIGS  greece  2011  sovereign  debt  politics  economics  default  restructuring  ireland  portugal  EFSF  ESM  ECB  Fed  fraud 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Portugal Says Economy to Shrink Twice as Much as Forecast Under Added Cuts - Bloomberg
Portugal’s economy will shrink twice as much as forecast this year as the government implements additional austerity measures to qualify for an international aid package of as much as 78 billion euros ($116 billion).
Gross domestic product will decline 2 percent both in 2011 and 2012, Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos forecast today at a press conference in Lisbon to announce the bailout agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. That compares with the government’s March projection that GDP would shrink 0.9 percent this year and expand 0.3 percent in 2012.
portugal  bailout  2011  IMF  austerity  EFSF  piigs 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Brazil's Lula to Portugal: Don't take bailout - Yahoo! News
"The IMF won't resolve Portugal's problem, like it didn't solve Brazil's," Silva said during a trip to Portugal. "Whenever the IMF tried to take care of countries' debts, it created more problems than solutions."Silva didn't elaborate, but in the past he has criticized the IMF for espousing "orthodox and recessive concepts."Brazil took a $41.5 billion IMF loan in 1998. Like many emerging markets, the Latin American country has enjoyed an economic boom in recent years. Silva, who left office in January, is credited with generating wealth through a blend of fiscal discipline and innovative investment strategies designed to reduce poverty.Portugal's outgoing Prime Minister Jose Socrates insisted again that his government "is determined not to ask" for a bailout.
further, Portugal central bank lowered its 2011 growth outlook to minus 1.4% from minus 1.3%

 Dilma Roussef,  her country could come to the aid of Portugal,"Brazil could help Portugal like Portugal has helped Brazil,"
portugal  brazil  2011  IMF  politics  economics  economy  history  bailout  EFSF  ESM  recession 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Ireland Puts Another $4.8 Billion in Allied Irish Banks - NYTimes.com
Using a new mandate that gives the government unprecedented power over banks, Ireland’s finance minister, Brian Lenihan, said he would transfer 3.7 billion euros, or $4.85 billion, from the country’s pension reserves into Allied Irish to guard against loan losses, and delist it from major stock exchanges, largely wiping out shareholders.
The move, which was required under the terms of a 67.5-billion-euro international bailout by the Irish government last month, came as Dublin tried to persuade investors that it could handle a crisis that started in Greece and was spreading to other debt-ridden nations, including Portugal and possibly Spain.
The Fitch Ratings agency on Thursday cut Portugal’s credit rating by one notch to A, and warned of further downgrades as the government struggled to whittle its debt and deficit and its banks faced a “difficult” financing environment. Portugal was sharply downgraded earlier in the week by Moody’s Investors service ...
Ireland  portugal  2010  AIB  bailout  conditions  sovereign  debt  crisis  EFSF  IMF  pension 
december 2010 by asterisk2a
Währungskrise: Britische Ökonomen erwarten Euro-Crash - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
doch die Einschätzungen, die einige von ihnen derzeit äußern, sind selbst für ihre Verhältnisse dramatisch: Der Euro kämpfe derzeit seinen Todeskampf, so lautet der Tenor einer Umfrage des britischen "Daily Telegraph" unter 25 Wirtschaftsexperten. Ohne radikale Änderungen könne die Gemeinschaftswährung schon sehr bald zugrundegehen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/budget/7806064/Euro-will-be-dead-in-five-years.html

Zwölf der 25 britischen Experten geben der Währungsgemeinschaft in ihrer aktuellen Form höchstens noch fünf Jahre. Acht glauben an die Stabilität des Euro, fünf wollten sich nicht festlegen. Noch vor einem Jahr hätte kaum jemand an einen möglichen Untergang der Gemeinschaftswährung geglaubt, schreibt die Zeitung. Doch die Verwerfungen der letzten Wochen und düstere Worte von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel, "Existenzkrise" hä

Strukturprobleme die Explosion ihrer Schulden eindämmen können.
EMU  Euro  Europe  angelamerkel  sarkozy  PIIGS  history  greatdepression  fiscal  monetary  policy  ECB  trichet  june  2010  uk  economists  survey  greece  spain  portugal  ireland 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
UK faces run on pound within hours of polling as futures exchange opens early | Business | The Guardian
Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who forecast the US recession more than a year before it began, said he was gloomy about the prospects for the world economy, and government debt from the US to Japan and Greece would remain a problem for several years and lead to higher inflation or government defaults.

"The bond vigilantes are walking out on Greece, Spain, Portugal, the UK and Iceland," said Roubini, a former adviser to the US. "The thing I worry about is the build-up of sovereign debt. Greece is just the tip of the iceberg, or the canary in the coal mine, for a much broader range of fiscal problems."
greece  bailout  bonds  gilts  PIIGS  uk  speculation  may  2010  Germany  EMU  unintended  consequences  spain  portugal  currency  Euro  pound 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Euro Declines on Concern Greece Bailout May Fail to Get Support - Bloomberg.com
“For Greece, this means terrific austerity and terrific recession,” Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong. “The euro will remain weak, and there’ll be more bailouts,”
greece  bailout  PIIGS  may  2010  spain  portugal  marcfaber 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Gesenkte Kreditwürdigkeit: Rating-Riese verramscht Griechenland - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Eine der wichtigsten Rating-Agenturen gibt Griechenland keine Chance mehr: Standard & Poor's hat die Kreditwürdigkeit des hochverschuldeten Landes um drei Noten herabgestuft. Auch Portugals Bonität nimmt radikal ab - an den Börsen bricht Unruhe aus.
greece  S&P  rating  ratingagencies  PIIGS  portugal  april  2010  creditcrisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  EMU  Europe 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Euro zone aid for Greece is only short-term solution-International Business-News-The Economic Times
"The immediate danger is averted but very little has been done to address longer-term problems. This is not a blueprint for additional crises. It might work for another small country like Portugal but not a big country like Italy or Spain."

Sunday's deal was a compromise by the euro zone states that involved Germany accepting that Greece would not be forced to pay the going market rates to secure loans.

Chancellor Angela Merkel had taken a tough stand because opinion polls show Germans oppose bailing out Greece, and she is wary of offering any loans before an important German state election on May 9 she can ill afford to lose.

The Berlin government also is worried that any loan to Greece could face a legal challenge in Germany.
bailout  greece  italy  spain  portugal  europe  EMU  IMF  april  2010  germany  angelamerkel 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Europe's Next Great Test: Competitiveness Is Lacking - WSJ.com
"The euro exchange rate is a tighter grip than the gold standard was," says Mr. Crafts.

Whether devaluation would work, as it did in the 1930s, would depend on how wages reacted. If a sliding currency set off a round of wage increases, as some economists think it would, it would yield no competitive advantage.

That would mean the only practical prospect is for economies to regain their competitiveness against Germany, which has been the low-inflation anchor of the euro, the hard way.

Unless the European Central Bank deliberately relaxed monetary policy to set off a round of inflation—very unlikely—the alternative is for Greece and the other uncompetitive southern economies to embark on wage cuts that pushes inflation lower than Germany's over many years.
EMU  eu  europe  euro  economics  gold  history  greece  spain  germany  italy  portugal  competitive  greatrecession  inflation  deflation  sticky-wages  problem  economy  competitiveness 
march 2010 by asterisk2a
Schuldenkrise: Europa fürchtet die verflixten Fünf - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Denn die Bedrohung für den Euro ist keineswegs bloß kurzfristig. Auch wenn Italien oder Spanien nicht bankrott gehen: Was passiert, wenn die Regierungen dieser Länder zu schwach sind, um notwendige Veränderungen durchzusetzen? Schon jetzt werden Griechenland und Portugal von heftigen Protesten erschüttert - doch ohne Reformen droht die Kluft zwischen starken und schwachen Euro-Staaten zu wachsen.
debt  europe  europeanunion  EMU  greece  spain  Portugal  Italy  ireland  february  2010  reform  public  government  society  austerity 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
Sovereign Debt Worries Send Wall Street Lower - NYTimes.com
There have been whispers that Europe’s better-off countries — France, Germany and the Netherlands among them — might come to the rescue with a bailout. If they do not, economists worry about the ripple effects of a default.

“There is a realization that the economy is still on very fragile footing globally,” said David Riedel, founder of Riedel Research, which provides market analysis. “There are definitely another couple of shoes to drop here with the European crisis.”
spain  Portugal  greece  europe  euro  sovereign  debt  2010  february  EMU 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
Chandler: Policy makers are repeating the mistakes of the 1930s - Credit Writedowns
Greece Spain Portugal Italy Ireland France
.
Ironically, the effect of the bond vigilantes and the social resistance may be similar insofar as the economic impact is negative. Ultimately what is at stake is the how the costs (broadly understood) of the bailouts and stimulus are going to be distributed, not just in terms of classes, but also sectors, industries and countries.
.
socialised Recession? Not really.
Bnks are in good shape (relativly speaking).
But the world economies are hurting even more than before.
GreatRecession  2010  M3  usa  europe  recession  recovery  comment  opinion  GreatDepression  history  lesson  sovereign  debt  Greece  credit  demand  keynes  Spain  Portugal  Italy  Ireland  France  Keynesianism 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
PIMCO - Viewpoints Telegraph El-Erian Jan 2010 Waiting for Better Times
There has been an increase in the average period of joblessness for those who are already unemployed. The longer that workers are out of a job, the more tricky their re-entry becomes.
The longer it takes for such commitments to materialize, the harder it becomes to arrest disruptive debt dynamics. And, once they get going, serial credit rating downgrades can aggravate already fragile financing dynamics. At that stage, playing catch-up on the fiscal adjustment front becomes even more difficult.
Also, we are witnessing a dramatic rise in the level of youth joblessness. Prolonged periods of unemployment early in one’s working career pose material risks to longer-term productivity, agility and prosperity.
And without sustainable growth, the first two challenges, which are already difficult, become even more complex.

There is no time to waste in supplementing cyclical policy considerations with meaningful structural responses.
debt  credit  rating  creditrating  issue  problems  recession  2010  cyclical  policy  cyclical-policy  2011  2012  uk  USA  spain  greece  germany  france  Portugal  ireland  europe  unemployment  growth  GDP  sustainable  economic 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
Euro Zone Grapples With Debt Crisis - WSJ.com
Even the staunchest optimists in Brussels and Frankfurt see a rocky process, with rating firms poised for more downgrades and bond markets meting out daily judgment

Greece and Spain saw their ratings downgraded. Ireland and Portugal have been warned they could be next. Even broader downgrades threaten if other European governments don't shape up.

Budget deficits for the region as whole in 2009 swelled to 6.4% of gross domestic product from 2% the year before. The EU forecast sees that gap widening to nearly 7% in 2010 before the worst is over.

By contrast, Germany and France will increase spending to add fresh fiscal stimulus in 2010, in France's case swelling its budget gap to more than 8% of GDP next year, according to EU projections. The concern in Berlin and Paris is that rising unemployment, a lagging indicator that continues to rise in the early stages of recovery, will do enough to limit domestic demand without the governments also turning off the taps too early.
debt  europe  euro  recession  recovery  2010  2011  bubble  crisis  poland  Portugal  spain  ireland  uk  rating  greece  Brussels  europeanunion  ECB  interestrate  EuropeanCommission 
january 2010 by asterisk2a

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