asterisk2a + outlook   114

You Can't See It, But You'll Be A Different Person In 10 Years : Shots - Health News : NPR
[A]ccording to fresh research that suggests that people generally fail to appreciate how much their personality and values will change in the years ahead — even though they recognize that they have changed in the past.

"The problem with that is, it takes 10 years,"

[...] "Life is a process of growing and changing, and what our results suggest is that growth and change really never stops," says Gilbert, "despite the fact that at every age from 18 to 68, we think it's pretty much come to a close."

Personality changes do take place faster when people are younger, says Gilbert, so "a person who says I've changed more in the past decade than I expect to change in the future is not wrong."
science  people  change  outlook  future  lifelesson  life  lesson  lifehacks  lifehacker  personality  changes  teens  adulthood  growing  up  psychology  change  aging  culture  society  values  value  personality 
january 2013 by asterisk2a
Nomura's Koo Plays The Pre-Blame Game For The Pessimism Ahead | ZeroHedge
While his diagnosis of the balance sheet recessionary outbreak that is sweeping global economies (including China now he fears) is a useful framework for understanding ZIRP's (and monetary stimulus broadly) general inability to create a sustainable recovery, his one-size-fits-all government-borrow-and-spend to infinity (fiscal deficits during balance sheet recessions are good deficits) solution is perhaps becoming (just as he said it would) politically impossible to implement. In his latest missive, the Nomura economist does not hold back with the blame-bazooka for the mess we are in and face in 2012.

LTRO may rescue financial system but cannot save real economy
LTRO should be viewed in similar light as Fed’s QE1

The banks effectively used funds borrowed from the Fed to meet payment obligations. The money was not used to fund new loans.
Consequently, neither bank lending nor the money supply grew despite all the liquidity injected under QE1, and inflation and growth ...
ECB  Japan  history  EBA  Basel3  economics  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  quantitative-easing  economic-thought  outlook  Europe  deflation  deleveraging  ratingagencies  LTRO  balance  sheet  recession  ZIRP  2012  2011  richardkoo  blamegame 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
David Smith's EconomicsUK.com: Britain is not following the Japanese script
While I am at it let me deal with another Japanese comparison, as drawn by McKinsey. As noted above, it estimates Britain’s total debt, 507% of gross domestic product, is close to Japan, with 512%.

Ireland is in a class of her own, with 663%, but others are lower. America has debt of 279% of GDP, Germany 278%, Italy 314%, Spain 363% and Portugal 356%.

McKinsey’s contention is that Britain has not begun to come down from these high levels of debt, to “deleverage” and needs to do so. The process of deleveraging, running down debt, is one that could undermine growth in coming years.

There is some truth in McKinsey’s view but not as much as you might think. There is a huge difference between Britain and Japan in government debt. Britain’s is 81% of GDP, Japan’s a huge 226%.

But debt is a stock while GDP is a flow and to compare them, while convenient, is apples and pears. Most household debt in Britain is in the form of mortgages. ....
composition  accounting  outlook  2012  GDP  economics  deleveraging  growth  policy  monetary  QE  BOJ  BOE  inflation  stagnation  Japan  UK  crisis  sovereign  overhang  debt 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
The Man Who Used to Have HIV - YouTube
There are so many advances going on right now in biotechnology that really have a wow factor," says Arrison. "Gene therapy to cure cancer and tissue engineering, growing brand new tracheas in the lab, also to cure cancer or to cure damag...

Book
100 Plus: Preparing for the Coming Age of Longevity [Hardcover]
Sonia Arrison (Author)
cancer  genetherapy  genes  genetics  gene  HIV  biotechnology  tissueengineering  medicine  personalized  future  outlook  health 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
W, V, U or L: How Is the Economic Recovery Shaping Up, Literally? - YouTube
Uploaded by PBSNewsHour on Oct 7, 2011
The latest unemployment figures out Friday reinforce the notion that the U.S. economy remains weak when compared to recoveries of the past. As part of his reporting on Making Sen$e of financial news, Paul Solman visits with economist Simon Johnson for a checkup on what shape the economic recovery is taking.
USA  lostdecade  greatrecession  unemployment  recovery  2011  outlook  employment  GDP  japan  history  financialcrisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  greatdepression 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Richard Resnick: Welcome to the genomic revolution - YouTube
Richard Resnick shows how cheap and fast genome sequencing is about to turn health care (and insurance, and politics) upside down.
cancer  genome  sequencing  mutation  gene  healthcare  medicine  personal  chromosone  revolution  future  outlook 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
HOW TO BUILD A STRONGER RECOVERY (UK)
He stuck broadly to Labour’s plans for slashing public sector capital spending, on roads, bridges, hospitals, schools and the rest.
Even under tough coalition plans, current spending on public services, including wages and salaries, will rise throughout this parliament, from £600.9 billion in 2009-10 to £713.4 billion by 2015-16.
Capital spending, by contrast, is being butchered. Gross spending will drop from £68.9 billion in 2009-10 to a low of £47.7 billion in 2013-14, before creeping up to £50.4 billion by 2015-16. Spending net of depreciation will fall from £49.5 billion in 2009-10 to £23.8 billion in 2013-14 and will only be £24.5 billion - half its earlier peak - in 2015-16. Remember these are cash sums, so the drop in real terms is even greater.
Cutting capital spending like this is a bad idea. Fiscal multipliers, the amount of economic bang a government gets for its spending buck, are always significantly higher for capital spending.
austerity  government  spending  UK  2011  outlook  GeorgeOsborne 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
UK household finances are 'worse than during height of recession' - Telegraph
Almost 40pc of households saw their finances deteriorate between July and August, compared to just under 6pc that reported an improvement as Britons were hit by rising prices and a squeeze on take-home pay.The latest Markit household finance index also found consumers suffered the fastest fall in their available cash since the monthly survey began in February 2009.Income from employment fell for the eleventh month running – August saw the steepest decline in take-home pay for nine months – while spending power continued to be squeezed by rising prices.Markit said these factors contributed to the sharpest reduction in savings since March 2009. Debt levels increased for the fifth consecutive month, and at the fastest pace since November 2010.The gloomy outlook applied to all income groups, age ranges and regions monitored by the survey, but consumers in the north of England are suffering more than those in the south, the financial information company found.
UK  austerity  depression  2011  income  squeeze  household  spending  debtoverhang  deleveraging  consumer  outlook 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Going Dutch – One Possible Solution To the Euro Debt Crisis? by Edward Hugh
While the new higher interest rates won’t have a huge impact in the short term, as existing debt needs to be steadily refinanced the extra cost will simply mount and mount. Which is why the Italian government is in a huge bind. It doesn’t have a debt flow problem, it has a debt stock problem, and as the risk premium charged on Italian debt rises and rises, and as the growth outcomes fail to meet the often optimistic targets, then the snowball of debt steadily slides its way down the mountain side with little the government can do to stop it growing as it moves.

However the present debate about creating Eurobonds is resolved, these alone will not solve the problem at this point, and, as many observers are noting, may even make matters worse by weakening the sovereign credit ratings in the core. In the longer run they could form part of a more general solution, but the moral hazard dimension they entail ...
sovereign  debt  crisis  2011  August  PIIGS  italy  competitiveness  competitive  germany  eurobond  transferunion  europe  Euro  scenario  outlook 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
No 'Black Monday', but it'll be bumpy
the market telling the policymakers: enough of this buying time - we want to agenda of growth and jobs and a consolidation of debt.
policy  folly  monetary  fiscal  G7  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  USA  greatrecession  recovery  politics  2011  outlook 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy in eye of the storm as cash runs low - Telegraph
. "The outlook is difficult and the risks elevated. Risks are tilted to the downside and potentially severe. Many of the imbalances and structural weaknesses accumulated during the boom remain to be fully addressed,"
UK  Spain  italy  austerity  PIIGS  EFSF  economy  IMF  outlook  2011  sovereign  debt  crisis 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Bob Janjuah: Euphoric In The Short-Term, Apocalyptic In The Longer | zero hedge
The only way DM (and EM) policymakers have been able to deliver even barely acceptable trend growth has been through the use of unsustainable policies which put short-term gains first but which clearly create huge longer term risks to sovereign credit quality and which leave a deeply negative scar in the minds of the private sector, which is attempting to de-lever and which knows it is facing the mother of all tax liabilities going forward. The reality is that absent a private sector debt binge (the private sector is not that stupid) and assuming we are coming to or are at the end of the line with respect to policy, then DM trend growth over the next 3/5 years will be in the 1-1.5% range.
economics  deleveraging  sovereign  debt  bubble  PIIGS  USA  Europe  China  policy  folly  economy  balancesheet  recession  recovery  2011  outlook 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Joke Is on China as U.S.s AAA Becomes Laughable: William Pesek - Bloomberg
As 2011 unfolds, the Bretton Woods II architecture that Asia created after the 1997 crisis isn’t just crumbling -- it’s putting trillions of dollars of state wealth at risk. Romantic notions about returning to the original Bretton Woods world of the gold standard are unrealistic in a global system as leveraged and nontransparent as ours. So is saving its successor, which saw Asia establishing de facto pegs to the dollar and amassing mountains of reserves to protect them.

The idea that any economy deserves a top rating today is just laughable. More and more, Chinese officials are realizing the joke is on them. The $1.2 trillion in U.S Treasuries held by China is but one part of the punch line. The other is the enthusiasm with which China has been buying debt issued by Greece, Portugal and other weak euro links.

Loading up on European debt is a case in point. The motivation is more politics than economics.
brettonwoods  history  leverage  system  systemicrisk  China  USA  rating  sovereign  debt  crisis  2011  outlook  foreignaffairs  ratingagencies  PIIGS  europe  politics  hindsight  analysis 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
HOW BRITAIN CAN GROW OLD WITHOUT GOING BROKE
tough choices

In the short-term, ... , growth is the problem.
On the back of the latest industrial production figures it reckons GDP will have risen only 0.1% in the second quarter. Some City economists are even gloomier. Knowing the Office for National Statistics, this at least raises the possibility of a negative second quarter.
Weak growth may not end there. The CEBR (Centre for Economics and Business Research), in a new forecast tomorrow, says without the contribution of a strong consumer and rising government spending, growth will average only 1.8% between now and the end of 2015.
That is about two-thirds of the pre-crisis growth rate and will mean annual government borrowing will be about £20 billion higher at the end of the parliament than forecast at the time of the March budget.
 if Britain’s trend growth has permanently dropped, the public spending that can be afforded in the future will be less than was thought.
UK  economy  growth  2011  2015  stagflation  economics  inflation  outlook  pension  age  debate  sustainability  population  austerity  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
How the world paid the hidden cost of America's quantitative easing | Business | The Guardian
local policy is leaking in a global economy. not deniable.

investor cash looking for a high return.The chase for yield – the need to hold assets with a low value relative to the return – is nothing new. However, the billions of pounds spent by central banks on their own government's bonds released a tidal wave of cash that needed to find a home. Booming commodity markets were an unwanted side-effect of boosting investor confidence in stock and bond markets, which had threatened to spiral downwards when the recession hit.

Adam Posen, an external member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, repeated his warning earlier in the week that Britain needed another dose of QE to keep asset prices from sliding and stop confidence in the economy ebbing away. In the face of government austerity cuts, which will strip more than £12bn out of the economy this year in rising VAT bills alone, he said an extra £50bn in QE was the bare minimum needed.
QE  QE-2.0  quantitative  easing  2011  commodities  benbernanke  Fed  UK  BoE  judgement  outlook  review  monetary  policy 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Trichet Urges a New Vision of Europe as Greeks Protest Austerity Measures - Bloomberg
“These days, ‘Europe’ and the benefits it brings have come to be taken for granted,” Trichet said in a speech in Brussels last night, according to a text provided by the ECB. “Thanks to the success of European integration, the threat of war has become a memory of the past for many Europeans, in particular the younger generation. This makes it all the more urgent to develop a renewed vision of the kind of Europe we want and indeed need -- a vision that is easily understood and shared among European Union citizens.”

“Each generation needs to affirm its commitment to Europe,” Trichet said. “Revitalizing Europe means” ensuring that “the burdens of today’s adjustments are not shifted onto future generations.”
improve economic governance and strengthen rules to prevent unsound policies.
“In the short-term, we have to tackle the most urgent issues by implementing the structural adjustment programs that are currently underway,”
 establishment of a euro-area finance ministry.
trichet  europe  2011  outlook  europeanunion  future  speech  vision  politics 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
BBC News - British 'rebalancing' brings pain to the High Street
There are three unstoppable forces at work:
A squeeze on consumers' spending power from inflation that significantly outpaces wage, tax-credit and benefit rises;A fear that the squeeze will intensify from expected imminent increases in energy prices and a less imminent rise in interest rates (though with household debt still equivalent to 160% of disposable income, any rise when it does come will be painful);The migration of much of what the high street and small shopping centres do to the Internet.
retail  uk  2011  recession  recovery  economy  consumption  deleveraging  consumer  austerity  outlook  income  disposable  stagflation 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Opening Bell: 06.28.11 Dealbreaker: A Wall Street Tabloid Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
Dollar seen losing global reserve status (FT)The US dollar will lose its status as the global reserve currency over the next 25 years, according to a survey of central bank reserve managers who collectively control more than $8,000bn…UBS surveyed more than 80 central bank reserve managers, sovereign wealth funds and multilateral institutions with more than $8,000bn in assets at its annual seminar for sovereign institutions last week. The results were not weighted for assets under management. The results are the latest sign of dissatisfaction with the dollar as a reserve currency, amid concerns over the US government’s inability to rein in spending and the Federal Reserve’s huge expansion of its balance sheet.
dollar  currency  reserve  survey  outlook  Fed  ZIRP  QE  USA 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
QE3 Or No QE3: The CIA's Take | zero hedge
Further, his clear effort to limit expectations for improvements in unemployment, along with his persistent efforts to focus attention on the longer term, are consistent with his tacit acknowledgement that the FOMC isn’t quite sure what to do at the moment (“a little bit of time to see what is going to happen would be useful to make policy decisions”).
benbernanke  2011  recovery  Fed  monetary  policy  QE-2.0  outlook  forecast  economics 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Godman Sachs' Take On Bernanke's Press Conference | zero hedge
"We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting."

4.    At the same time, his remarks hinted that the FOMC has in fact discussed easing options. Specifically, he said options could include: 1) securities purchases, which could be structured in various ways; 2) a cut in the interest rate on excess reserves; 3) guidance on how long the Fed will wait to sell securities; and 4) or “a fixed date to define extended period”. With regard to the extended period language, he revised his remarks from the last press conference, in which he said the extended period language meant “there would be a couple of meetings probably before action”. Today he said: “I think the thrust of extended period is that we believe we're at least two or three meetings away from taking any further action, and I emphasize ‘at least.’”
benbernanke  economics  USA  economy  2011  Fed  outlook  QE  QE-2.0  monetary  policy  clueless 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
UK interest rates 'will not rise until 2013' - BNP Paribas - Telegraph
the Bank of England will achieve little by raising rates from their record 0.5pc low in a bid to rein in the pace of price rises, they argued.
“We do not believe the Bank of England will raise rates this year or next,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, global head of market economics at BNP Paribas. “There is no point in hiking rates to slow the economy — it’s too slow already and fiscal consolidation will stop it from overheating.“The only reason for a rate hike is to keep inflation expectations and wage rises down. [But] unemployment is already subduing wages.”Mr Mortimer-Lee holds that one-off shocks — rises in the global cost of oil and food, a fall in the pound and the recent rise in VAT — explain away much of the UK’s inflation problem. That should mean CPI inflation will fall quickly next year as these factors ebb away, ending 2012 around the 2pc target.
BOE  ZIRP  monetary  policy  2011  inflation  interestrate  UK  economy  growth  outlook  forecast 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Euro will break up in next five years, economists say | City A.M.
THE Eurozone is likely to be broken up within the next five years as southern European countries struggle to grow as part of the single currency, a new forecast from an economics consultancy will claim today.
Analysis from CEBR will show that without a euro break-up, growth in southern Europe – including Spain, Portugal and Greece – will be below 1.5 per cent in every year to 2015.
The latest forecasts came as European finance ministers debated the structure of a potential €120bn (£106bn) rescue paskage for Greece, which is widely expected to be the first country to exit the euro as it struggles to remain competitive amid stringent austerity reforms.
“Sooner or later both the Greek population and international creditors will tire of fighting a losing battle, leading to a break-up of the currency as Greece pulls out, probably followed by other countries,” said Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of CEBR.
PIIGS  economics  economy  growth  outlook  austerity  forecast 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Standard Chartered: "Three Factors Will Drive Gold To $5,000" | zero hedge
The limited supply comes at a time when central banks have completely changed their tune on selling down their gold stocks and now appear likely to accelerate their net buying programmes. China is way behind the curve. Currently, only 1.8% of China’s foreign exchange reserves is in gold; if the country were to bring this proportion in line with the  global average of 11%, it would have to buy 6,000 more tonnes of gold, equivalent to more than 2 years of gold production. We believe that these factors – limited gold production, buying by central banks and increasing demand from India and China – can potentially drive the  gold price to US$5,000/oz, as highlighted in our commodity team’s earlier report." And what according to Std. Chartered is the best way to capitalize on this undervaluation: "We believe the best ways to invest in the gold cycle are buying physical gold (a safe asset) or investing in junior gold miners...
http://www.scribd.com/doc/57833659/In-Gold-We-Trust-061411
gold  centralbanks  Fed  PBoC  fiat  currency  outlook  forecast  monetary  policy  monetization  2011 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Meredith Doubles Down: Move Over Munis, Here Comes The "Hidden State Financial Crisis" | zero hedge
While over the past 10 years state and local government spending has grown by 65%, tax receipts have grown only by 32%.

What concerned us the most was the fact that fixed debt-service costs are increasingly crowding out state monies for essential services. For example, New Jersey's ratio of total tax-supported state obligations to gross state product is over 30%, and the fixed costs to service those obligations eat up 16% of the total budget. Even these numbers are skewed, because they represent only the bare minimum paid into funding pension and retirement plans. We calculate that if New Jersey were to pay the actuarially recommended contribution, fixed costs would absorb 37% of the budget. New Jersey is not alone.

The real issue here is the enormous over-leveraging of taxpayer-supported obligations at a time when taxpayers are already paying more and receiving less.
MeredithWhitney  municipal  debt  sovereign  pension  USA  2011  outlook  publicservice  government  efficiency  taxation  taxes  taxpayer  faultlines 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Boots UK sees slow sales as KKR stays on | City A.M.
 tough conditions look set to persist.
“Looking to the year ahead, we are planning for consumer demand to be subdued and expect governments to continue to seek ways to contain growth in healthcare expenditure,” he said.
retail  UK  outlook  forecast  economy  disposable  income 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
The Complete Overview Of The Setting Economy Of The Land Of The Setting Sun | zero hedge
Increasingly we have come to believe that the real marginal economy over the next several quarters will be neither that of the contracting US, nor that of the rapidly tightening, yet still very much inflationary China, but the (arguably) third largest one: that of Japan. Over the past month we have suggested that in addition to already latent deflationary tendencies, the recent post-earthquake collapse will require a dramatic, and very political intervention in BOJ monetary policies (here and here), in order to avoid a global contraction. Yet as David Koo proposed yesterday, the (infra)structural changes will demand an overhaul so profound that the contraction will be not only severe but likely very extended due to spillover effects into energy commodity demand, thus creating a non-virtuous feedback loop. So for those who are still new to the Japan story, below we present an extended presentation compiled to scare even the most optimistic fan of the land of the setting sun.
Japan  economy  2011  outlook  forecast  economics  policy  monetary  fiscal  sovereign  debt  earthquake  fukushima 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Nouriel Roubini: 'We haven't seen the last of financial crises' - Profiles, People - The Independent
"I have got a team of 50 people who follow every aspect of the world economy, not just in advanced and emerging economies, but in exotic markets in Africa and central Asia and the Middle East. Most banks don't have a single person looking at the Middle East. We have no conflict of interest because we don't manage money... we don't invest ourselves". As for the Dr Doom thing he responds: "I'm not Dr Doom – I'm Dr Realist".

"Well, my advice – and I spoke with him [Osborne] on a couple of occasions – has been about too much fiscal austerity – though it was necessary, too much of it was front-loaded. He was making the argument that, if the austerity is too front-loaded and it was going to have a negative effect on demand, then it would be the job of the Bank of England to stimulate growth through monetary policy.
NourielRoubini  BOE  uk  growth  outlook  economy  economics  monetary  fiscal  policy  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  austerity 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
The Inflation Monster Under the Bed - NYTimes.com
but what is happening for real is, that while living costs increase, less is left for "spending". and with economies which relie on spending effects for their growth formula will have lower than average growth y/y
economics  paulkrugman  commodities  UK  USA  GDP  growth  2011  2012  outlook  recovery  greatrecession  inflation 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
IMF slashes UK growth forecast but backs plans to cut deficit - Business News, Business - The Independent
The WEO concludes: "Securing public debt sustainability remains a priority for most European economies. Current fiscal consolidation plans are broadly appropriate and rightfully differentiated in the near term. In 2011, the largest economies in the region (France, Germany, Spain, UK) will implement differing measures (in size and composition) to reduce their deficits".
The fund joins the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and other international bodies in broadly endorsing the Government's strategy, and offers little ammunition for the shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, who has taken recent signs of faltering growth as evidence that the policies are "hurting but not working". Much now hangs on the UK's growth figures for the first quarter of this year, on 27 April.

- further warning of insufficient growth to tackle unemployment
- further warning of divergence / two-speed economies
IMF  UK  growth  outlook  austerity  budget  deficit  2011  faultlines  PIIGS  unemployment 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Ministers admit family debt burden is set to soar | Politics | The Observer
But experts expressed alarm. The Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, writing on his blog, said: "People have been digging into the details of the government forecast and finding that it relies on the assumption that household debt will rise to new heights relative to income.
"Why? Because the only way the economy can avoid taking a hit from government cuts is if private spending rises to fill the gap – and although you rarely hear the austerians admitting this, the only way that can happen is if people take on more debt."

 "This is the downside of the chancellor's deficit reduction plan. As tax increases and public spending cuts squeeze households' disposable incomes, they will be forced to take on more and more debt in an attempt to maintain their living standards.
UK  austerity  2011  2012  budget  economy  private  public  debt  borrowing  outlook  forecast  recovery  living-standard 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Europe's Failing Health - WSJ.com
The statistics paint a bleak picture. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the European Union will see an increase in health expenditure of 350% by 2050, whereas at the same time the economy is only set to expand by 180%.
Some work has already been done to estimate the real impact on future expenditures. Friedrich Breyer, a professor of economics at the University of Konstanz in Germany, calculates that in Germany alone between 2020 and 2030 there will be a huge spike in the number of elderly people alongside an enormous drop in young and working-age people. "This will mean a dramatic increase in individuals' payroll tax contribution rates to health care to 20.7% in 2030 and over 23% in 2040," he says. This compares to just 11.4% in 1980.
healthcare  economics  aging  population  elderly  demographics  change  outlook  forecast  crisis  politics  taxation  NHS  UK  reform  freemarkets  debate 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Australia's house prices: Iron, coal, bricks and mortar | The Economist
In a recent paper, Patrizia Tumbarello and Shengzu Wang of the  IMF show that a 10% improvement in the terms of trade tends to lift Australian property prices by about 5%. What they don't investigate is whether it raises the ratio of prices to rents. I think it's at least possible that a resource boom affects asset prices, like houses, differently from the price of a service, like rental accommodation. The bright prospects in mining and minerals will attract capital inflows into the resource sector, which might bid up the price of other assets in the economy. And in buying a house, the average Australian might see a way to crystallise the future income he expects will trickle down to him from the commodities boom.
Thanks to the improvement in the terms of trade, the average Australian's expected lifetime wealth has increased. In theory, ....
Australia  boom  2010  2011  commodities  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  China  Brazil  India  Asia  outlook  globalisation  trade 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
4 Reasons Home Prices Are Likely To Keep Falling : Planet Money : NPR
It will probably be a long time before prices get back to the heights of the bubble. A study last year looked at more than a dozen financial crises from the past century, and found that home prices tend to remain below their bubbly peaks during the entire decade after each crisis.
USA  subprime  property  2011  outlook  economics  housing  forecast  history  bubble 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
On Rick Santelli's "Meet The Press" Appearance, A $113 Trillion Future Rounding Error, And The Metamorphosis Of The American Dream To A Nightmare | zero hedge
And now for some facts: On February 28, 2001 George Bush said this about his 2002 Budget: “It will retire nearly $1 trillion in debt over the next four years.” Instead, US debt, which at that point was $5.7 trillion, rose to $7.7 trillion. $3 trillion rounding error? Also in the same budget, Bush predicted a $5.6 trillion surplus over the next ten years, which would wipe out all of America's debt by 2011. The latest debt figure was $14.1 trillion. A $14.1 trillion rounding error, or a nearly five fold increase in "rounding errors" in a decade. At this point, the 2021 total debt (including insolvent Social Security) is expected to be $24 trillion. Applying the same rounding error variance to government "projections" means... $113 trillion in debt?
Most jarring, total US Debt to GDP will be over 100% in under 6 months. Paging Reinhart and Rogoff...
USA  sovereign  debt  gwbush  barackobama  presidency  crisis  outlook  projection  forecast  timgeithner  budget  2011  2010  2012  GDP  KennethRogoff 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Fat Lady Wanted as Guide to Fed Rate Setters: Caroline Baum - Bloomberg
The Fed has econometric models that predict growth and inflation (they’re silent on asset bubbles). It relies on something called the output gap, or the difference between actual gross domestic product (hard to compute) and potential GDP (a moving target), to warn of inflation on the horizon. It monitors headline and core inflation (lagging indicators). It pays a lot of attention to inflation expectations as reflected in the spread between yields on nominal Treasuries and those indexed to inflation. And it keeps a close eye on wages, which are the biggest input cost for service-producing industries.
output-gap  2011  2010  unemployment  USA  Fed  econometrics  inflation  outlook  forecast 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Why Americans Can't Save Money - Room for Debate - NYTimes.com
According to a Harris Poll released last week, 27 percent of Americans have no personal savings and 34 percent have no retirement savings, an increase from over a year ago.
At the same time, people are spending more. Borrowing is up, perhaps a sign of consumer confidence in the recovery.
Why was the era of thrift so short-lived? Why are Americans spending again, yet unable to save?
savings  saving  USA  2010  2011  outlook  consumption  consumer 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Jobless Rate Points to Lost Power in Work Force - Economic Scene - NYTimes.com
Just consider the main measure of corporate health: profits. In Canada, Japan and most of Europe, corporate profits have still not recovered to precrisis levels. In the United States, profits have more than recovered, rising 12 percent since late 2007.
For corporate America, the Great Recession is over. For the American work force, it’s not.
Unfortunately, fixing the job market will take years. Even if job growth accelerated to the rapid pace of the late 1990s and remained there, the unemployment rate would not fall below 6 percent (which some economists consider full employment) until 2016. We could now be in only the first half of the longest stretch of high unemployment since World War II.
unemployment  USA  2010  2011  2012  economy  regulation  structure  outlook 
january 2011 by asterisk2a
Forecaster Ian Shepherdson Sees an End to Economic Gloom - NYTimes.com
HERE are the data that have caught his eye. At this time last year, the total stock of commercial and industrial bank credit was $1.32 trillion; it was contracting at a blistering pace — about $7 billion a week. Indeed, between the peak of such lending in October 2008 and the trough in June of this year, total commercial and industrial bank credit fell by one-quarter.

Now, this contraction has stopped. The data have recently turned positive and should continue climbing, albeit slowly. “Getting to zero is not bullish at the moment,” Mr. Shepherdson said. “I would want to see commercial and industrial credit growing reasonably strongly to an outright positive four, five or six billion dollars a week. The story is really that the credit contraction seems to be coming to an end.”
USA  creditcrunch  history  financialcrisis  lesson  Sweden  2010  2011  outlook  recovery  QE-2.0  Fed  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission 
november 2010 by asterisk2a
YouTube - Kampf um Ackerboden Plusminus 02.11.2010
Amerikanisierung der Landwirtschaft
Kurzdenken
Vermoegens und Geldkonzentrationen, benachteiligung fuer die Gemeinde
Landwirtschaftbetriebe sterben
agriculture  industrialisation  industrial  germany  2010  capitalism  economics  trend  future  outlook  2012 
november 2010 by asterisk2a
Will QE2 Impact Equity Market Fundamentals: Consensus And Fringe Views | zero hedge
" Furthermore, Goldman's economic team has already priced in $1 trillion of QE2 in its 2011 GDP forecast of 1.8% (below consensus of 2.5%), meaning at worst the overall economy will continue to operate at negative growth rates,

The bullish argument for equities goes as follows: (1) The Fed buys longdated Treasuries to reduce term premium and lower interest rates across the maturity spectrum; (2) The low yields penalize individuals and corporations who hold cash; (3) individuals and institutional investors re-allocate their savings into higher risk instruments such as equities, high yield bonds, emerging market debt and equity, and commodities; (4) firms pursue new capital spending initiatives and boost employment; (5) asset price inflation has a wealth effect and spurs retail spending; (6) a consequence of lower US interest rates is a weaker US Dollar which benefits US exporters and also stimulates some incremental domestic job growth.
QE-2.0  Fed  2010  2011  GDP  outlook  forecast  QE  monetary  policy 
october 2010 by asterisk2a
Boomland Brasilien: Die neue Weltmacht wackelt - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Brasiliens Boom wird oft dem seit acht Jahren amtierenden Präsidenten Lula zugerechnet, dessen zweite Amtszeit nun zu Ende geht und der nicht wiedergewählt werden kann. Dabei hat nicht er die Grundlagen geschaffen, sondern sein Vorgänger Henrique Cardoso.

Er besiegte die Hyperinflation. Er sanierte den Haushalt. Er entwarf eines der weltweit größten Sozialprogramme, um Millionen Menschen aus der Armut zu befreien. Die Ernte dieser Saat fuhr Lula ein. Heute ist Cardoso einer der letzten Politiker, die den Präsidenten noch kritisieren. "Lula hat das Land betäubt", sagte er kürzlich. Brasilien befinde sich auf dem Weg in den Staatskapitalismus.

Doch nur wenige wollen solche Sätze hören. Vier von fünf Brasilianern unterstützen Lula, der sein Amt zum 1. Januar 2011 abgibt. Seine wahrscheinliche Nachfolgerin Dilma Rousseff, die an diesem Sonntag aller Voraussicht nach gewählt wird, wäre ohne Lulas Unterstützung chancenlos gewesen.

Rohstoffexporte statt Industrieaufbau
brazil  2010  election  economy  BRIC  export  exports  commodities  infrastructure  outlook  critics  politics 
october 2010 by asterisk2a
Is China's Growth Rate Destined To Be Cut In Half? | zero hedge
A new report by MainFirst Bank provides more ammo to the China bears. In "Why China's Growth Rate May Halve" author Bijal Singh has a very gloomy forecast on the country's growth rate, concluding it may "struggle to grow faster than 6%, given that China is now fully employing the vast bulk of its available urban labour force, and given that the Chinese working age population has stopped growing and is on a declining path."

So, China’s GDP growth is likely to range between 4% and 6%. It is of course possible for China to grow faster, but that would trigger inflation, and possibly political unrest. The Authorities mantra for the future may be “moderate, non-inflationary growth”.
China  outlook  forecast  GDP  growth 
october 2010 by asterisk2a
Pimco's El-Erian Says Industrial Economies Risk `Lost Decade' - Bloomberg
Advanced economies risk a “lost decade” unless policy makers recognize the severity of the wounds left by the financial crisis, said Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.

El-Erian, who popularized the phrase “new normal” to describe how growth will be depressed by consumer retrenchment and financial regulation, said governments and central banks haven’t detected the “ongoing paradigm shift” in their economies that will require remedies beyond stimulus programs. Among the fault lines he spots are strained balanced sheets, persistently high unemployment and a misunderstanding of financial markets.

“Having won the war, industrial-country societies are in the process of losing the peace,” El-Erian said in a speech yesterday in Washington during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. “If they are not careful, they risk slipping into a lost decade of low growth, high unemployment and welfare destruction.”
new-normal  greatrecession  creditcrunch  USA  2010  2011  2012  barackobama  presidency  economy  lostdecade  Japan  GDP  outlook  forecast 
october 2010 by asterisk2a
On The Ever Increasing Inconsistencies In Reported Economic Data | zero hedge
One can easily draw the conclusion from the data that we have dodged a bullet. But that does not mean we are out of the woods. Employment is a coincident indicator. Leading indicators, such as the ECRI, continue to deteriorate and to levels still consistent with nontrivial double-dip risks. Keep this in mind — private payrolls came in at +97,000 in November 2007 and the “Great Recession” began the next month. In other words, the +67,000 tally we saw today basically tells you nothing about how the pace of economic activity is going to unfold as we move into the fall.
economics  NBER  economic  forecast  outlook  greatrecession  recession  USA  unemployment  indicators  inventory  2010  2011  double-dip 
september 2010 by asterisk2a
Schwarz-gelbes Konzept: Merkels Masterplan fr die Energiewende - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Auf den restlichen Seiten präsentiert die Bundesregierung Ideen und Konzepte dafür, wie in Nord- und Ostsee riesige Windparks entstehen sollen, welche Rolle Biomasse künftig bei Strom- und Wärmeerzeugung spielen soll, wie Bürger dazu bewegt werden können, ihre Häuser besser zu dämmen, wie sich die Industrieproduktion energieeffizienter gestalten lässt, mit welchen Privilegien der Kauf von Elektroautos reizvoll wird und wie der Ausbau eines europäischen Superstromnetzes vorangetrieben werden kann.

FOTOSTRECKE

9 Bilder Grafiken: Energiegutachten für die Regierung

Manche Aspekte, die die Regierung anspricht, sind noch sehr vage formuliert, bloße Absichtserklärungen. Insgesamt 23-mal versprechen die Verfasser etwas zu prüfen, meist eine alte Regelung oder den Entwurf einer neuen. In anderen Bereichen - wie Elektroautos und schlauen Stromnetzen - hat Schwarz-Gelb ohnehin schon Förderprojekte gestartet, hier sind die Ausführungen konkreter.
energy  renewable  germany  2010  outlook  future  lobby  nuclear  atom  AKW 
september 2010 by asterisk2a
Die neuen Crash-Risiken: Mrkte in der Demografiefalle | FTD.de
Die Einwohner der Industrieländer werden immer älter. Für Anleger ist das eine schlechte Nachricht: Sie müssen sich auf schrumpfende Renditen einstellen. Denn alte Leute hocken eher auf ihrem Geld als jüngere und setzen vorwiegend auf sichere Häfen.

Wir werden älter, viele Industrieländer drohen zu vergreisen. Und mit ihnen ihre wirtschaftliche Leistungsfähigkeit. "Demografie gleicht der Schwerkraft: Sie ist kaum zu sehen, aber ihre Effekte sind enorm kraftvoll", schreibt Anleiheguru Bill Gross von der Allianz-Fondstochter Pimco in seinem jüngsten Investmentausblick. Und geht sogar noch weiter: "Nicht nur das globale Wirtschaftswachstum, sondern die Zukunft des Kapitalismus selbst hängt vom Bevölkerungswachstum ab."

Während die Bevölkerung in Europa bis 2050 schrumpfen wird, fällt der Zuwachs in absoluten Zahlen in Afrika und Asien rund zehnmal so hoch aus wie in Nord- und Südamerika.
demographics  demography  Demographic  europe  UK  future  outlook 
august 2010 by asterisk2a
Konkurrenz zu China: Deutsche Industrie warnt vor Rohstoff-Engpass - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
China startet einen weltweiten Wettlauf um Rohstoffe. Die Volksrepublik bunkert seltene Materialien und sichert sich Vorkommen in Afrika. Nun schlägt die deutsche Industrie Alarm: Kämpft Europa nicht um die knappen Ressourcen, droht vielen Wirtschaftszweigen Existenznot.

Hamburg - Die Liste liest sich wie eine Übung für das Große Latinum: Gallium, Germanium, Beryllium, Indium, Magnesium, Platin, usw. Die Aufzählung ist eine Art Artenschutzliste der Europäischen Union für Rohstoffe. Die aufgeführten Materialien, so die Idee der EU, sind unverzichtbar bei der Herstellung von Hightech-Produkten. Deshalb soll der Zugang europäischer Produzenten zu diesen Stoffen besonders geschützt werden.

In der Tat sind viele dieser und weiterer Materialien aus dem Wirtschaftsleben nicht mehr wegzudenken.
rare-earths  china  economy  germany  africa  export  europe  industrial  production  resources  resource  2010  trend  outlook 
august 2010 by asterisk2a
China to Close 2,000 Factories in Energy Crackdown - NYTimes.com
The goal of the factory closings is “to enhance the structure of production, heighten the standard of technical capability and international competitiveness and realize a transformation of industry from being big to being strong,” the ministry said.

The announcement was the latest in a series of Chinese moves to increase energy efficiency. The National Development and Reform Commission, which is the government’s most powerful economic planning agency, announced last Friday that it had forced 22 provinces to halt their practice of providing electricity at discounted prices to energy-hungry industries like aluminum production.

The current Chinese five-year plan calls for using 20 percent less energy this year for each unit of economic output than in 2005. But surging production by heavy industry since last winter has put in question China’s ability to meet the target.
china  energy  2010  politics  planning  economics  economy  policy  renewable  trend  outlook 
august 2010 by asterisk2a
Europe's future: Can anything perk up Europe? | The Economist
The single market remains half-built. The EU is 30% less productive than America in services. Because European services companies operate behind national barriers they innovate less and they tend not to gain the full economies of scale. Whole areas, such as health care, are exempted from EU-wide competition. Likewise some high-tech industries, such as telecoms, have been protected and others, such as e-commerce, barely existed in 1992. A single digital market could be worth 4% of EU GDP by 2020. The EU has a costly, fragmented patent system, so products (like far too many workers) cannot cross borders easily; energy supply has not been properly liberalised; debts are hard to collect across borders. And so it goes on. National to-do lists are just as long. In Spain and Italy privileged workers are protected, discouraging new permanent jobs. German entrepreneurs are immediately taxed on equity they put into a start-up. Europeans retire too early everywhere.
europe  free-market  germany  protectionism  startup  outlook  politics  EMU  2010  2011  2012  problem  problems 
july 2010 by asterisk2a
Video - Man With a Plan - WSJ.com
Finance professor Raghuram Rajan saw the global credit crisis coming. Now, he sees ways to avoid a repetition of the big meltdown, reports Barron's Clare McKeen
outlook  income  distribution  middleclass  usa  germany  wages  wage  future  trends  rich  taxation  policy  mistake  economic 
july 2010 by asterisk2a
China's chief auditor warns mounting local government debt a risk to economy - Telegraph
Mr Liu said the ratio of debt to disposable revenues at some local governments was over 100pc and in the highest case it was 365pc.
He said the audited debts of 18 of China's 22 provinces, together with 16 cities and 36 counties amounted to 2.79 trillion yuan (£279bn) in 2009.
Victor Shih, a professor at Northwestern University in the United States, believes the sum in 2009 was 11.4 trillion yuan, equivalent to 71pc of China's nominal GDP.
Next year, he is forecasting government debt to hit 96pc of gross domestic product as infrastructure projects continue to eat up cash and produce negligible returns.
"The worst case is a pretty large-scale financial crisis around 2012," he said. "The slowdown would last two years and maybe longer," he added.
China  debt  bubble  economy  outlook  forecast  recession  2010  2011  2012  global 
july 2010 by asterisk2a
Schuldenkrise: Warum Deutschland Europas größter Krisenprofiteur ist - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Kein Euro-Land ist so stark von seinen Ausfuhren abhängig wie Deutschland. Der Export sorgt für 45 Prozent der deutschen Wirtschaftsleistung. Zwar gehen rund 60 Prozent der deutschen Exporte in die Euro-Zone. Doch Firmen, die ihre Waren etwa in Asien oder USA anbieten, können dies nun zu günstigeren Preisen tun.

"Wettbewerbsfähig sind die meisten deutschen Unternehmen ohnehin, so dass die jüngste Abwertung des Euro für echte Preisvorteile im außereuropäischen Ausland sorgt", sagt Stefan Schilbe, Chefvolkswirt bei HSBC Trinkaus. Durch jahrelange Lohnzurückhaltung habe Deutschland die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zurückgewonnen, die es seinerzeit durch eine zu harte Währung eingebüßt hatte.
Germany  recession  Euro  EMU  PIIGS  may  2010  economy  Europe  competitiveness  competitive  export  double-dip  outlook  forecast  stockmarket 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Stabilitätspakt: Barroso zerpflückt deutsche Vorschläge zur Euro-Rettung | FTD.de
Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) rief Spanien unterdessen zu tiefgreifenden Wirtschaftsreformen auf. Vor allem auf dem Arbeitsmarkt und im Bankensystem seien rasche Maßnahmen erforderlich, betonte der IWF in einem Montag in Madrid veröffentlichten Bericht. Die konjunkturellen Aussichten in Spanien seien ungewiss. Der IWF gehe davon aus, dass die spanische Wirtschaft bis auf weiteres nur ein schwaches Wachstum erreichen werde.
piigs  spain  Euro  EMU  may  2010  outlook  growth  recovery  greatrecession  IMF  reform 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Währungskrise: Der Euro ist immer noch zu teuer | FTD.de
Nach Einschätzung von Ökonomen ist der Euro selbst beim aktuellen Kurs von rund 1,24 $ noch leicht überbewertet. Sowohl Wirtschaftsprofessoren wie Ansgar Belke von der Universität Duisburg-Essen als auch Bankexperten wie Lutz Karpowitz von der Commerzbank teilen diese Ansicht. Auch in einer der vergangenen Umfragen des FTD-Schattenrats aus Chefvolkswirten von Banken und Instituten waren zwei Drittel der Meinung, dass der Gleichgewichtskurs eher bei 1,20 $ liegt.
"Der langfristig fundamental gerechtfertigte Wechselkurs liegt zwischen 1,15 $ und 1,20 $", sagte Commerzbank-Ökonom Karpowitz. Allerdings könnte der Euro im Jahresverlauf ein Niveau erreichen, wo er nicht mehr überbewertet ist.
Euro  outlook  currency  FX 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
John Taylor: "Dead Man Walking...The Euro Is Finished" | zero hedge
Our pencil pushers and Excel experts have made lots of projections on the Greek situation and can find almost no possibility of success. The EU/IMF team projects Greek debt at 149% of GDP when this rescue ends, but their nominal GDP estimates are incredibly optimistic when salaries and jobs are cut dramatically. We see a 20% decline over the three years as a good outcome, the debt would stay the same, and the ratio goes to 186% of GDP. Almost like Japan, but foreigners own the Greek debt – no way! This rescue reminds us of Bob Rubin’s rescue of Russia in July 1998, which lasted about one month before the whole house of cards collapsed. We knew that one couldn’t work, and this one can’t either. It might take longer, but the euro is finished.
EMU  greece  bailout  euro  currency  sovereign  debt  germany  may  2010  default  restructuring  2011  hisotry  BobRubin  russia  outlook 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
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