asterisk2a + moneysupply   26

Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
IMF's epic plan to conjure away debt and dethrone bankers - Telegraph
The Chicago Plan Revisited

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12202.pdf

Benes and Kumhof argue that credit-cycle trauma - caused by private money creation - dates deep into history and lies at the root of debt jubilees in the ancient religions of Mesopotian and the Middle East.

[...]

The key of the Chicago Plan was to separate the "monetary and credit functions" of the banking system. "The quantity of money and the quantity of credit would become completely independent of each other."

[...] Private lenders would no longer be able to create new deposits "ex nihilo". New bank credit would have to be financed by retained earnings.

[...] The finding is startling. Simons and Fisher understated their claims. It is perhaps possible to confront the banking plutocracy head without endangering the economy.
WallStreet  plutocracy  oligopol  banking  banking  crisis  miltonfriedman  Fed  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  fiat  money  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  IMF  fiat  currency  fractional  reserve  banking  IrvingFisher  Irving  debt  jubilee  credit  bubble  credit  cycle  economic  cycle  economic  history 
october 2012 by asterisk2a
Charting Europe's Broken Transmission Channels | ZeroHedge
Barclays provides a succinct flowchart of just where those transmission channels are broken. However, with SMP empirically a losing proposition for sovereign spreads, LTROs having had no impact on loans to non-financial corporates, and rate cuts not reaching the peripheral economies (and in fact signaling further divergence); it seems that short of full-scale LSAP (which JPM thinks will need to be a minimum EUR600bn to be in any way effective), whatever Draghi says will be a disappointment and perhaps that explains the weakness in European sovereigns this week as exuberance fades (or is the game to implicitly weaken the EUR to regain competitiveness).

The transmission policy channels of central bank largesse are failing... as giving free money to banks is not reaching the economy... (LTRO) ... and cutting rates didn't reach the areas it needed... (base rate cuts do not translate in rate cuts on the other side [real economy].

A weaker Euro? Be careful what you wish for.
creditcrunch  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  currency-war  currency  debasement  policy  folly  policy  error  Politics  confidence  trustagent  trust  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  QE  debtoverhang  deleveraging  GFC  greatrecession  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  MarioDraghi  SMP  LTRO  moneysupply  velocity  of  money  transmission  monetary  policy  System  ECB  PIIGS  Euro  competitiveness 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Draghi: EZB will wieder Staatsanleihen kaufen und Euro retten - SPIEGEL ONLINE
- Draghi sounded very Fed like; speculation now that they might use SMP non-standard monetary policy tool again.
- also I personally got the impression they want to safe Euro and thus the banking system. But necessarily not Greece. Greece and other problematic sovereigns were not mentioned. If Greece were to exit - they could to another LTRO.
- also analysts speculate that ECB could do something with ESM together in the future.

- Everything else considered; ECB can not solve problems of sovereigns. Actions are only a sedative against the pain and these sedatives (non-standard measures) will be discounted by market over time now faster than the last time.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/07/26/hes-here-better-late-than-never-draghi-euro-area-much-stronger-than-people-acknowledge-today/

Within our mandate ECB ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/quick-reminder-effectiveness-ecbs-bond-buying
LTRO  ESM  EFSF  SMP  MarioDraghi  2012  PIIGS  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  velocity  of  money  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  ECB 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
David Smith's EconomicsUK.com: Britain needs a lot more monetary oomph
In April, the M4 money supply measure was down nearly 4% on a year earlier, having been falling on an annual basis since autumn 2010, the time official figures say the economy stopped recovering.

The crude number may overstate how weak the money numbers are. The Bank prefers to adjust M4 for lending to so-called intermediate other financial corporations (OFCs). Think of it as banks’ lending to off balance sheet and other subsidiaries, which boomed in the years leading up to the crisis - the financial sector lent huge sums to itself - but has since gone into sharp reverse.

Adjusting for this has M4 up by 3.8% on a year ago, a significant acceleration on the spring of last year, when it was rising by just 1.5%. The latest bout of QE, it seems, has made a difference.

We should not, however, get carried away. The Bank’s rule of thumb was that you needed annual M4 growth of 9% for trend growth of 2.5% or so and inflation at the 2% official target. ...
greatrecession  IMF  2012  moneysupply  monetary  policy  BOE 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: The ECB's tricky route to stabilisation | The Economist
the ECB's actions have had a dramatic impact on sovereign yields at all durations. On the other hand, it has not been successful at reversing a reduction in lending that threatens the real euro-zone economy.

As the piece explains, the ECB's is a useful strategy, but one which has in some ways increased the risk to the single currency of a renewed loss of confidence in sovereign solvency. An unsatisfactory outcome to the Greek debt negotiations could help trigger such a reversal, as could the recession generated by the present credit crunch. For all its success, the ECB hasn't shepherded the euro zone out of trouble entirely, and it may yet find itself needing to buy large quantities of government bonds.
capital-flight  PIIGS  moneymarkets  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  creditcrunch  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Fed  BOE  quantitative-easing  LTRO  ECB 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Nomura's Koo Plays The Pre-Blame Game For The Pessimism Ahead | ZeroHedge
While his diagnosis of the balance sheet recessionary outbreak that is sweeping global economies (including China now he fears) is a useful framework for understanding ZIRP's (and monetary stimulus broadly) general inability to create a sustainable recovery, his one-size-fits-all government-borrow-and-spend to infinity (fiscal deficits during balance sheet recessions are good deficits) solution is perhaps becoming (just as he said it would) politically impossible to implement. In his latest missive, the Nomura economist does not hold back with the blame-bazooka for the mess we are in and face in 2012.

LTRO may rescue financial system but cannot save real economy
LTRO should be viewed in similar light as Fed’s QE1

The banks effectively used funds borrowed from the Fed to meet payment obligations. The money was not used to fund new loans.
Consequently, neither bank lending nor the money supply grew despite all the liquidity injected under QE1, and inflation and growth ...
ECB  Japan  history  EBA  Basel3  economics  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  quantitative-easing  economic-thought  outlook  Europe  deflation  deleveraging  ratingagencies  LTRO  balance  sheet  recession  ZIRP  2012  2011  richardkoo  blamegame 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Eurozone burns money while the banks fiddle their balance sheets - Telegraph
ECB's LTRO is QE in stealth. A bank bailout. And one way to prop up money supply and velocity.

It buys time, politicians have to use. If not, and all else will fail - the trust of the public / society will bring a 2nd Depression and the break-off of PIIGS et al.

The market knows what is going on, thus the Euro is justifiably under 1.30.

All that, while banks need to delever and consolidate. And sovereigns need to fix their budgets and promote growth reforms to stop demand shortfall.

There is not "one" fix that addresses all problems.

OR ... politicians stand by the people and look beyond the next election.

"So eurozone governments need to stand behind retail depositors, make the financial institutions "fess-up" and let the cards fall, forcing the bombed-out European banking sector to consolidate."
complexity  Basel3  accounting  banking  PIIGS  politics  economic-thought  deleveraging  moneysupply  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Europe  monetary  policy  monetarism  monetization  debt  monetisation  LTRO  ECB 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Ben Bernanke realised printing yet more money would look desperate - Telegraph
The reality is QE has already done an awful lot of damage. America has expanded its base money supply three-fold in two and a half years – from 6pc to 18pc of national income. But even this jaw-dropping measure hasn't led to much of an expansion in monetary measures, such as M2 that include bank lending, precisely because the banks, for all the propaganda to the contrary, are still determined not to lend. They can make more money simply channelling QE money into stocks and other investments.Crucially, the banks also remain petrified of counter-party risk in the inter-bank market. Many of them, disgracefully, are still concealing vast sub-prime losses in off-balance-sheet vehicles. So they assume other banks are doing the same. Such mistrust between the banks – "we're lying, so they must be lying" – gums up the wheels of finance and starves even creditworthy firms of the funds needed to invest and create jobs.

zombi banks - same as japan +10 years ago.
transparency  Fed  benbernanke  2011  JacksonHole  QE  QE3  QE2  quantitative  easing  ZIRP  M2  moneysupply  monetary  policy  inflation  deflation  USA  UK  monetarybase  interbank  LIBOR  trust  confidence  toxicassets  subprime  zombi  banks  company  capitalism  fiatmoney  politics  barackobama  presidency  GeorgeOsborne  davidcameron  greatrecession  recovery  lostdecade  Japan  balancesheet  recession  richardkoo  deleveraging  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  centralbanks  trichet 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Will Latest Market, Credit Woes Add Up to a 'Global Recession'? - YouTube
- downgrade in confidence, stat gov is not able to prop up economy if needed- downgrade in confidence, after gov debt ceiling debate ended with austerity shaped bill (compromise)- downgrade in confidence, after Obama could not show leadership in debate and give boundaries
- government, and other institutions (Fed, SEC, Banks, Individual) failed
- growth panic
- no leadership on both sides of the Atlantic
- slow growth below long-term average guaranteed in developed markets whose bubbles burst 
- wrong medicine currently administered 
- currently, QE, monetization does not lead into healthier moneysupply in UK, USA, EU. bc of debt overhang and deleveraging process - which will still take years.
KennethRogoff  GFC  paulkrugman  2011  greatrecession  barackobama  presidency  monetary  fiscal  policy  politics  mistake  folly  sovereign  debt  ceiling  debtceiling  crisis  August  PIIGS  Fed  ECB  economy  recovery  GDP  growth  QE  QE3  debtoverhang  inflation  deflation  deleveraging  Japan  lostdecade  history  lesson  liquidity-trap  greatdepression  austerity  unemployment  output-gap  moneysupply  monetization  BOE  UK  europe  USA 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy money supply plunge flashes red warning signals - Telegraph
M1 in Italy have fallen at an annual rate of 7pc over the last six months, faster than during the build-up to the great recession in 2008," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors.Such a dramatic contraction of M1 cash and overnight deposits typically heralds a slump six to 12 months later. Italy's economy is already vulnerable – industrial output fell 0.6pc in May, and the forward looking PMI surveys have dropped below the recession line."What is disturbing is that the numbers in the core eurozone have started to deteriorate sharply as well. Central banks normally back-pedal or reverse policy when M1 starts to fall, so it is amazing that the European Central Bank went ahead with a rate rise this month," Mr Ward said.

"We expect the crisis to continue deteriorating, and threaten to undermine the entire euro area as European policy-makers still misunderstand market dynamics. They show no sign of catching up with reality," 
= wrong policy response, policy mistake
moneysupply  italy  france  2011  recovery  greatrecession  M1  M3  ECB  economics  economy  politics  EFSF  ESM  bailout  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  policy  mistake  wrong  decision 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy and Spain must pray for a miracle - Telegraph
Italian 10-year bonds hit a post-EMU high of 5.3pc on Friday. This is not just a theoretical price: the Italian treasury has to roll over €69bn (£61bn) in August and September; it must tap the markets for €500bn before the end of 2013. The interest burden on Italy's €1.84 trillion stock of public debt is about to rise very fast.Spanish yields punched even higher, through the danger line of 5.7pc. The bond markets of both countries are replicating the pattern seen in Greece, Portugal, and Ireland before each spiraled into insolvency. And the virus is moving up the European map. French banks alone have $472bn (£394bn) of exposure to Italy and $175bn to Spain, according to the Bank for International Settlements."We believe the European sovereign crisis might be entering a new phase with contagion reaching the larger economies

M1 contracted  m-o-m over the past two months, with sharper declines in the periphery.  2.9% March 1.6% April 1.2% May. M3 grew +2.2 % months.
italy  spain  PIIGS  2011  sovereign  debt  crisis  EMU  europe  moneysupply  ECB  trichet 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Accelerating Deposit Flight In Ireland Forces Irish Central Bank To Print Money Independent Of ECB | zero hedge
So let's do the math: ICB "money printing" has increased by €40 billion. For a country whose GDP is about €160 billion, this means that Ireland has printing the equivalent of 25% of its GDP. Put in American terms, this would be the equivalent of about $3.5 trillion in 3 months... In this context we wonder just what the ECB considers "systemically significant."
ECB  monetary  policy  trichet  2011  inflation  Ireland  banking  banks  bailout  Fed  USA  moneysupply  creation  fraud  AIB  EFSF  Europe  politics 
january 2011 by asterisk2a
The Fed's Voodoo Economics | zero hedge
Not only is inflation dependent on MV
it is also dependent on trust of money as storage of value and means of exchange.
inflation  deflation  monetary  policy  double-dip  history  stagflation  dollar  stagnation  Fed  exitstrategy  toxicassets  moneysupply  economics  theory 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Bob Janjuah: "We Are Trapped In Some Sort Of Horrendous Keynesian/Monetarists' Nightmare...." | zero hedge
Kevin's work also made clear that one 5%+ GDP data point, driven by inventory, was certain - he thgt it would be Q3 09 but it ended up being in Q4. However, we both have felt and feel that the prvte sector is in the middle of a long multi-yr period of balance sheet repair, and that the questions re sustainable real 'growth' could/can only be answered once we strip out and/or see the abatement/absence of UNSUSTAINABLE government largesse/bailouts/handouts etc. To us, once you strip away the policymaker and his period of peak effectiveness, where we are now much closer to the end rather than the beginning, what is left to take grwth forward is not very much at all.

I refer of course to the key themes Sovereign Creditworthiness; and The Great Battle between Voluntary Austerity & Deflation, vs Involuntary Austerity, Inflation/Stagflation, Serial Bailouts, Debt & Debasement.

MV = PY / EMU M3 was -.3% y/y in 09, means that even with +M, V was negative. It is a balance sheet recession.
Keynesianism  monetization  balancesheet  recession  richardkoo  private  public  debt  sovereign  austerity  default  globalisation  economics  M3  moneysupply  macroeconomics  greatrecession  UK  history  Japan  argentina  Greece  PIIGS  EMU  Europe  USA  BRIC  China  brasil  emergingmarkets  paulvolcker  competitive  competitiveness  Germany  Finland  euro  reflection  double-dip  reflate  developing-world  may  2010 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Bernanke Faces Disinflation as CPI Growth Slows - Bloomberg
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge -- the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy -- rose at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace since records began in 1959, according to an April 30 Commerce Department report.

The employment malaise is depressing wages. The unit cost of labor, or ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity, fell at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2010, according to the Labor Department. That followed declines of 7.6 percent in the third quarter of 2009, the steepest in more than 60 years, and 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter. With labor costs falling, firms can maintain profit margins without increasing prices.
A falling inflation rate also increases real interest rates, effectively tightening monetary policy, he said.
deflation  inflation  usa  unemployment  2010  may  greatrecession  recovery  Fed  benbernanke  moneysupply  M3  M2  interestrate 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Google's Eric Schmidt on why bankers deserve little sympathy and Obama does - Telegraph
"The number of people who were hurt by the activities of the financial industry is so large, it is very hard to have a lot of sympathy with that industry given the high-flying nature of its behaviour," he said.
banking  ericschmidt  recession  google  fanniemae  freddiemac  history  greenspan  monetary  policy  politics  economy  economics  moneysupply  financialmarket  causes  cause  creditcrunch  deficit  britian  uk  debt  dollar  pound  usa  inflation 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
UK credit card borrowing falls to nine-month low - Telegraph
Recession-battered Brits borrowed only £79m on their credit cards in September as they continued to pay off debts for the third month in row.

Debts of £262m were repaid last month, although this was less than the £373m paid back in August.

A total of 56,215 mortgages were approved in September, up from 52,970 in August. This was better than expected and suggested that buyers were being drawn back into the housing market, encouraged by low interest rates and greater optimism about the economy.
private  debt  uk  2009  creditcard  borrowing  consumer  moneysupply  M4  BoE 
november 2009 by asterisk2a
Commodities on Fire - CNBC By The Numbers - CNBC.com
The U.S. Dollar continues its slide, with the Dollar Index falling to its lowest levels since the end of September. The index is now down 14 percent from its March highs.
>> Through the money amount which is thrown at banks from Treasuries and Central Banks - all this money must go somewhere. And it goes into the financial markets. Not into the balance sheet or Main Street.
Many indexes are on a 9 to 14 month high. Because of the floods of money.
inflation  moneymarkets  moneysupply  monetary  policy  fed  ECB  BOE  financial  markets  stockmarket  stocks  commodities  oil  s&p500  dowjones 
august 2009 by asterisk2a

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