asterisk2a + monetarism   13

Wolfgang Münchau über die Zinspolitik der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aber am Ende ist das alles Haarspalterei. Es läuft auf dasselbe Ergebnis hinaus: Die Zinsen werden lange bei null bleiben, wahrscheinlich über mehrere Jahre. Solange es keine Anzeichen für eine dauerhaft steigende Inflation gibt - und die wird es auf absehbare Zeit nicht geben - solange wird sich dieser Ausblick nicht ändern. [...] Es besteht ein klarer Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge und den Preisen für Wertpapiere. [...] Es besteht die akute Gefahr, dass ähnlich wie in Japan vor zwanzig Jahren die Geldpolitik nicht greift, solange der Bankensektor so krank ist.
Greece  monetary  policy  JörgAsmussen  bond  bubble  incentive  asset  bubble  Europe  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sentiment  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  dis-inflation  deleveraging  asset  allocation  inflation  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Spain  GFC  capital  allocation  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  banking  union  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  communication  Fed  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Hilfe für Finanzkonzerne: Deutschland bremst Bankenunion aus - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Gerade wegen der Probleme im Bankensektor würden die geldpolitischen Impulse nicht mehr wirken. "Die EZB wird auf Dauer nicht erfolgreich sein können, wenn wir den Bankensektor nicht grundlegend reformieren",
ESM  angelamerkel  monetary  policy  PIIGSFB  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  Recapitalisation  debtoverhang  2013  Wolfgang  Schäuble  NPL  PIGS  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  political  error  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Recapitalization  PIIGS  deleveraging  Germany  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Junk's heyday is here and now - YouTube
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-09/deutsche-bank-we-fully-understand-why-authorities-wouldnt-want-free-markets-operate- "We would stress that we fully understand why the authorities wouldn't want free markets to operate today as the risk of a huge global default and unemployment cycle would still be very high. However their intervention has a cost in our opinion. Socially this might be worth paying but we do think it exists."
bankruptcy  cycle  unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  zombie  banks  fixed  income  miltonfriedman  BOJ  artificial  demand  Insolvenzverschleppung  QE  lostgeneration  demand  and  supply  property  bubble  hayek  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  bubble  default  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  debt  monetization  centralbanks  insolvency  cycle  Free  Lunch  IMF  default  cycle  GFC  refinancing  corporate  debt  haircut  unintended  consequences  high  yield  debt  Student  Loan  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  default  rate  credit  bubble  greatrecession  lostdecade  NIRP  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  default  scenario  ZIRP  Junk  Bonds 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Economic policy: Paved with good intentions | The Economist
Although the debate [austerity] relates to the UK, I think it has a much wider resonance. And indeed, to a student of history, it has fascinating parallels; economic policy-making was rethought in the mid-1970s, but the same debates are popping up again. [...] Margaret Thatcher on ZIRP & QE "Let us print the money instead. Because what that is saying is let us quietly steal a cerain amount from every pound saved in building societies, in national savings, from every person who has been thrifty." [...] [ZIRP & QE is no free lunch - it has consequences, known and unknown, unintended.]
infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  Margaret  Thatcher  Mark  Carney  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  deflation  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  QE  intellectual  fiscal  policy  free  lunch  UK  PIGS  debt  monetisation  Martin  Wolf  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  economic-thought  deleveraging  economics  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  liberal  economic  reform  IMF  GFC  output-gap  unintended  consequences  margaretthatcher  Troika  davidcameron  greatrecession  debtoverhang  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  ZIRP  demand-curve  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  supply-demand  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Japan wählt neues Unterhaus: LDP und Abe zurück an die Macht - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Wunsch nach Stabilität war offenbar stärker als die Hoffnung auf politischen Neuanfang und gesellschaftlichen Wandel: In Japan haben die Parlamentswahlen am Sonntag eine Partei zurück an die Macht gebracht, die seit 1955 fast ununterbrochen regierte und wie kaum eine andere das Establishment verkörpert.

Die Liberaldemokratische Partei LDP sicherte sich eine absolute Mehrheit der 480 Sitze im mächtigen japanischen Unterhaus. Neuer Regierungschef wird wohl der rechtskonservative Parteivorsitzende Shinzo Abe, 58, der das Amt bereits von 2006 bis 2007 innehatte, dann jedoch aus gesundheitlichen Gründen zurücktrat. Abe stammt aus einer bekannten Politikerfamilie.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-16/japanese-yen-celebrates-arrival-abenomics-20-opens-20-month-low

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-16/abenomics-back-shinzo-abe-returns-japanese-pm-following-crushing-ldp-victory

"Abe is the worst premier for JGBs since 1994"
monetization  monetarism  JGB  JPY  Keynesianism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Abenomics  policy  folly  policy  error  2012  deflation  currency-war  currency  debasement  QE  BOJ  greatrecession  GFC  lostdecade  status  quo  LDP  election2012  Politics  Japan 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
EZB-Juristen prüfen Anleihen-Aufkaufprogramm - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Betreibt die Europäische Zentralbank mit ihrem Aufkaufprogramm für Anleihen versteckte Staatsfinanzierung? Offenbar wappnen sich die Währungshüter gegen diesen Vorwurf. Laut "Bild"-Zeitung prüfen Juristen von EZB und Bundesbank die Rechtmäßigkeit der Käufe.

Nicht ausgeschlossen wird dem Bericht zufolge dabei, dass die brisante Frage demnächst dem Europäischen Gerichtshof zur Klärung vorgelegt wird. Für diesen Fall wollten sich EZB und Bundesbank juristisch wappnen. Hintergrund sei der Streit um die Frage, ob die EZB mit den Aufkäufen gegen das EU-vertragliche Verbot von direkter Staatsfinanzierung verstoße.
Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  ECB  Jens  Weidmann  Bundesbank  2012  monetary  policy  monetarism  monetization  OMT 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB's Mario Draghi unveils bond-buying euro debt plan
after "what ever it takes" speech in London (after Opening of London 2012 games) - market soars.
A month later ECB follows through - and unveils OMT program

http://youtu.be/yYjXRL5YmI0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyzXiPhyub4.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnpWUPGQt_g
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5z9YwqHFG0

Jens Weidmann - Bundesbank was only one against program.
ECB moved out of Bundesbank shadow ...

- most interesting thing is; the risk of sovereign debt stays with national central bank, the risk to the balance sheet (ie in case of a GREXIT, stays with Greece Central Banks balance sheet); ECB create money, gives it to Greece Central Bank, which buys the Greece debt, which stays on Greece Central Banks balance sheet. In case of Grexit scenario - money creation effect of this type of debt monetisation stays within Greece as they change back to Drachma (regional currency).
Grexit  Jens  Weidmann  Euro  Europe  Monetary  System  ZIRP  Fed  QE  Sterilization  SMP  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  greatrecession  debtoverhang  2012  monetization  monetarism  policy  MarioDraghi  Mario  OMT  ECB 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Münchau: Warum Draghis Programme keine Inflation bringen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milton Friedmans Monetarismus ist nicht gescheitert, weil er falsch war, sondern weil sich die Welt geändert hat.

[...]

Um Inflation wirklich zu verstehen, bedarf es des Verständnisses einer komplexen Dynamik, die eine ganze Reihe von Faktoren mit einschließt - unter anderem die gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage, die Entwicklung an Rohstoffmärkten, Arbeitslosigkeit, die Lücke zwischen Auslastung der Industrie und ihrer Kapazität sowie die Entwicklung von Krediten und anderen Finanzindikatoren. Fast alle diese Indikatoren deuten auf eine deflationäre Entwicklung hin.

[...]

Die Aufgabe der Notenbank wird es dann nicht mehr sein, Inflation zu bekämpfen, sondern für ein Mindestmaß an Inflation zu sorgen. Noch besser wäre es, wenn die Notenbanken nicht mehr ein isoliertes Inflationsziel setzen, sondern ein nominales Wachstumsziel verfolgen.
2012  richardkoo  miltonfriedman  PIIGS  nominal  GDP  targeting  OpertationTwist  BOJ  BOE  Fed  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  deflation  deleveraging  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Japan  centralbanks  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetarism  System  LTRO  SMP  ECB  QE  ZIRP  inflation  reflation 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
A Sign Of The Hiring-pocalypse | TechCrunch
An entrepreneur-turned-venture investor told me over the weekend: Booms are the worst time to build a company.

Only capital is cheap. Everything else is expensive — talent most of all.

---

Fed's ZIRP and QE (and Bailout bonanza, moralhazard) - did fuel VC/Seedfund pockets - overthrowing capped supply (investments in companies).
ZIRP and QE do increase the demand for alternative investments. And skews investors risk sentiment. They take on more risk in hope for the next big thing that brings them that more ROI that the market can not produce due to World Wide QE, ZIRP, currency debasement, Sovereign Debt Crisis.
monetarism  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  Fed  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  QE  supply-demand  economics  unintended  consequences  ycombinator  instagram  Zynga  Google  Facebook  Technology  Boom  bubble  entrepeneurship  venturecapital  vc  ZIRP  2012 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
Recovery – Who are We Kidding?
In our assessment, what we see unfolding is the latest chapter in the tug of war between inflationary and deflationary forces. During the “goldilocks” economy of the last decade, investors levered themselves up. Homeowners treated their homes as if they were ATMs; banks set up off-balance sheet Special Investment Vehicles (SIVs); governments engaging in arrangements to get cheap loans that may cost future generations dearly. Cumulatively, it was an amazing money generation process; yet, central banks remained on the sidelines, as inflation – according to the metrics focused on - appeared contained. Indeed, we have argued in the past that central banks lost control of the money creation process, as they could not keep up with the plethora of “financial innovation” that justified greater leverage. It was only a matter of time before the world no longer appeared quite so risk-free. Rational investors thus reduced their exposure: de-levered. ...
mandate  monetarism  monetary  theory  economics  economic-thought  economic  history  paulvolcker  2012  deflation  inflation  Leverage  policy  folly  policy  error  QE  reflation  fiatmoney  fiat  currency  money  creation  process  oversight  WallStreet  regulation  FDIC  SEC  Fed  alangreenspan  benbernake  monetary  policy  greatrecession  GFC 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
Eurozone burns money while the banks fiddle their balance sheets - Telegraph
ECB's LTRO is QE in stealth. A bank bailout. And one way to prop up money supply and velocity.

It buys time, politicians have to use. If not, and all else will fail - the trust of the public / society will bring a 2nd Depression and the break-off of PIIGS et al.

The market knows what is going on, thus the Euro is justifiably under 1.30.

All that, while banks need to delever and consolidate. And sovereigns need to fix their budgets and promote growth reforms to stop demand shortfall.

There is not "one" fix that addresses all problems.

OR ... politicians stand by the people and look beyond the next election.

"So eurozone governments need to stand behind retail depositors, make the financial institutions "fess-up" and let the cards fall, forcing the bombed-out European banking sector to consolidate."
complexity  Basel3  accounting  banking  PIIGS  politics  economic-thought  deleveraging  moneysupply  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Europe  monetary  policy  monetarism  monetization  debt  monetisation  LTRO  ECB 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Sweden Revamps Central Bank Tool Kit on Crisis - Bloomberg
The crisis has demonstrated that central bank models don’t take financial system risks properly into account, Ingves said, adding that it’s necessary to design econometric models that better catch the dynamics of the global economy.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last month signaled he also may be changing his view on the degree to which asset prices should be incorporated in monetary policy, a tool he in 2002 deemed “far too blunt” to prevent bubbles. “The possibility that monetary policy could be used directly to support financial stability goals, at least on the margin, should not be ruled out,” Bernanke said on Oct. 18 in a speech in Boston.
GFC  financialcrisis  financialmarket  centralbanks  lesson  economics  model  academia  academics  monetary  policy  tools  error  folloy  monetarism  leverage  deleveraging  Riksbank  ECB  Fed  balancesheet  QE  reform  history 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Bernankes QE2 Averts Deflation, Spurs Credit - Bloomberg
Spin: Bernanke’s QE2 Averts Deflation, Spurs Rally, Expands Credit (Bloomberg) how about makes rich richer, poor poorer, cause gas prices to spike, incites revolutions in MENA, and confirms central planning in US is firmly established

- reflate away to worries -
QE-2.0  benbernanke  monetary  policy  monetization  monetarism  economics  inflation  deflation  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt 
may 2011 by asterisk2a

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