asterisk2a + lostdecade   132

Millennials spend three times more of income on housing than grandparents | Society | The Guardian
Millennials are spending three times more of their income on housing than their grandparents yet are often living in worse accommodation, says a study launched by former Conservative minister David Willetts that warns of a “housing catastrophe”. [....] They are four times as likely to rent privately than two generations ago, a sector which has the worst record for housing quality, the report claims.
Millennials  UK  housing  crisis  affordable  social  Generation  Rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  babyboomers  baby  boomers  disposable  discretionary  income  Spending  Generationy  GenY  oligopol  oligopoly  Corruption  lobby  vested  interest  bubble  underinvestment  Austerity  debt  revolving  door  asset  distortion  London  Productivity  output  gap  skills  student  loan  GFC  mortgage  risk  recovery  secular  stagnation  lost  lostdecade  decade  history  Margaret  Thatcher 
september 2017 by asterisk2a
Is This What A Bursting Bubble Looks Like? - YouTube
- bear market, not a 2008/09 decline, more like a lost decade of little productivity growth and very very slow closing of the still existing output gap. - companies benefit form technological progress (accelerating); get more done with less people. +++ https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/posts/10154276062445062
asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  NIRP  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  Fed  ECB  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  2014  lost  decade  productivity  output  gap  G20  G  Zero  G8  Europe  USA  UK  complexity  unknown  unknowns  Taper  deflation  deflationary  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  skill-biased  technological  change  technological  progress  knowledge  worker  knowledge  economy  economic  history  history  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  global  imbalances  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  debt  jubilee  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  default  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  signal  vs  noise  noise  dysfunctional  marketplace  efficiencies  market  dynamics  market  intervention  financial  market  market  failure  market-failure  lost  generation  lostdecade  lostgeneration  currency  debasement  fiat  currency  fiat  money 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Der Crash ist die Lösung | SWR1 Leute - YouTube
banks still TBTF, Systemrelevant. << enabled by Own Lobby influencing Career Politicians. haftungsgarantien von ECB are no more capitalism. +++ &&& +++ If even Germany - Wirtchaftslokomotive - export meister - does still have a budget deficit, while being that country that produces more than it consumes, who else if not Germany? But still doesn't. +++ "Die Zeit der Rendite ist vorbei." +++ Schulden zu haben, man ist nicht frei. Frueher hat man das sich gekauft was man sich leisten konnte, ohne kreditkarte, ohne dispo, ohne bankkredit. +++ NEW crash will come of even bigger proportion and even more rubble to clear up afterwards than 2008/9 - GFC. +++ Always buy in tranches, dispersed over time. +++ fractional reserve banking leads to this UBER crash as we live on a planet with finite resources. Current GDP fetish needs to stop. Change of mind, thinking, course. << this is the same with Mobile Creative, future workforce, Software eats the world, UK's productivity gap.
book  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  jubilee  sovereign  crisis  liquidity  trap  investigative  journalism  journalismus  monetization  private  consumer  bubble  monetisation  public  household  balance  sheet  recession  PIGS  Europe  lostdecade  lost  decade  lost  generation  greatrecession  greatdepression  toobigtofail  TBTF  OTC  derivatives  systemrelevant  Systemrelevanz  toobigtojail  Career  Politicians  accountability  transparency  Politics  Democratic  Process  democracy  short-term  thinking  long-term  thinking  financial  industry  LIBOR  rigging  scandal  trust  trustagent  confidence  corporatism  crony  capitalism  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  revolving  door  IMF  IWF  centralbanks  economic  history  capitalism  Thomas  Piketty  ECB  EZB  OMT  faultlines  budget  deficit  structural  deficit  Impediments  structural  imbalance  history  financial  repression  New  Normal  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Beton  Gold  property  bubble  fragile  world  fagile  financial  system  external  shock  balckswan  monetary  stimulus  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  growth  round  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  Island  Agentina  Japan  UK  fractional  reserve  banking  GDP  economic  model  fiat  currency  fiat  money  USA  academia  acade 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Zinsentscheid der EZB: Draghi plant Minus vor Zinssatz - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Schon immer ließ sich das Ende eines Systems besonders schwer erkennen, wenn man Teil des Systems ist. Im Jahre sieben nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise ist es langsam Zeit für die Frage: Was, wenn die vermeintliche Ausnahme in Wahrheit die Regel ist? Wenn es sich bei der Kombination aus niedrigen Zinsen, niedrigem Wachstum und niedriger Inflation, die weite Teile Europa seit 2008 ebenso im Griff hält wie die USA und Japan, um die neue Normalität handelt? Wenn das seit Jahrzehnten praktizierte westliche Wirtschaftsmodell, sich immer niedrigere Wachstumsraten mit immer höheren Staatsschulden zu erkaufen, an seinem Schlusspunkt angelangt ist? +++ http://bit.ly/SxhnZq "Nicht Europa ist am Ende - sondern der Kapitalismus, so wie wir ihn kennen. [...] Im angelsächsischen Finanzkapitalismus wachsen die Vermögen der Reichen und stagnieren die Einkommen der anderen." [...] [EU Election Result is a vote] gegen das ungerechte Wirtschaftssystem, das ihre Lebensgrundlage gefährdet.
capitalism  in  crisis  Europe  Japan  USA  deflation  deflationary  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  ECB  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  recovery  2014  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  macroeconomic  policy  macroeconomics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  financial  repression  New  Normal  lostdecade  lost  decade  lost  generation  crony  capitalism  corporatism  corporate  governance  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  Makers  history  fiat  currency  fiat  money  trust  trustagent  confidence  hunt  for  yield  Politics  Thomas  Piketty  book  Robert  Reich  Robert  Skidelsky  josephstiglitz  Joseph  Stiglitz  financial  capitalism  asset  bubble  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  1%  Super  Rich  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  coldprogression  kalte  Progression  Gini  coefficient  Democratic  Process  democracy  European  Council  Election  2014  European  Election  2014  skill-biased  technological  change  Blue-collar  Worker  knowledge  White-collar  Worker  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  disposable  income  tax  free  income  tax  code  tax  credit  taxation  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  ethics  social  social  m 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Today's Good News From Japan Is Terrible - Bloomberg View
uroda is finding that his monetary largess isn't boosting credit creation as hoped. Inflation, yes, as Japan imports more energy with a weaker yen. But the kind of monetary multiplier effect the BOJ hoped to unleash by now remains elusive, as the experience of Mizuho Financial Group and Japan’s other two biggest banks demonstrate. All three are forecasting a drop in earnings for this year as loan growth loses momentum and returns from stock investments wane. Kuroda is a respected economist who's staked his entire legacy on ending Japan's deflation. What's more, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe isn't coming through with sweeping structural reforms to boost consumer demand and business confidence. However unfairly, that puts the onus on Kuroda. It also places Japan in uncharted territory. Will bond traders sit back passively if the BOJ adds lots more stimulus to the economy? It's impossible to tell. + http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/blog/abenomics-new-monetary-policy/
BOJ  QE  ZIRP  Japan  lostdecade  lost  decade  2014  deflationary  deflation  trust  trustagent  confidence  Kuroda  Put  Greenspan-Put  Greenspan  Put  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  Nikkei  JPY  faultlines  global  imbalances  Fed  Taper  Janet  Yellen  Abenomics  Shinzo  Abe  fiscal  stimulus  accommodative  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Thomas Piketty: on tour with the 'rock-star economist' -video | Business | theguardian.com
Thomas Piketty. funny thing, at this meeting in min 3. no handshake, no spreading germs. less sick days. ;) ... +++ Faisal Islam on The Default Line - video interview - http://www.theguardian.com/business/video/2013/aug/16/faisal-islam-default-line-video || + Michael Lewis: the stock market is rigged – video interview - http://www.theguardian.com/business/video/2014/apr/30/michael-lewis-the-stock-market-is-rigged-video-interview ||
Thomas  Piketty  Robert  Reich  Book  documentary  Gini  coefficient  post-recession  post-crisis  GVC  greatrecession  greatdepression  recovery  2014  income  inequality  income  mobility  coldprogression  kalte  Progression  social  mobility  low-income  income  growth  income  distribution  tax  free  income  disposable  income  crony  capitalism  greed  Super  Rich  corporate  governance  journalism  journalismus  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  economic  history  long-term  thinking  accountability  governance  public  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  policy-makers  lostdecade  lostgeneration  long-term  unemployment  underemployed  structural  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  Europe  USA  UK  sovereign  debt  crisis  democracy  inequality  Faisal  Islam  generational  contract  Environmental  Movement  disaster  Millennials  generationy  babyboomers  HFT  WallStreet  toobigtofail 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Student loan sell-off 'won't change repayments'
The proportion of loans not repaid - for instance because graduates do not earn enough to reach the threshold for repayment - was at one stage forecast to be 28%, but is now running closer to 40%. Mr Willetts told MPs that the difference was because earnings had failed to increase at the level expected - which meant that repayment levels had also been reduced. The most recent official figures on student loans, grants and awards, from November 2013, show that two months into the 2013-14 academic year more than £11bn had been paid to more than 990,000 students. On average, for 2012-13, students borrowed a tuition fee loan of £4,720, which is likely to rise as more students at university pay the higher level of fees introduced in 2012. In addition, students on average borrowed £3,750 each in maintenance loans.
StudentLoans  Student  Loan  Bubble  studentdebt  lostgeneration  lostdecade  Higher  Education  formal  business  UK  income  mobility  income  growth  income  inequality  income  distribution  policy  folly  political  folly  political  error  policy  error  fiscal  policy 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
Wie Europa Schulden loswerden kann - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[Rogoff & Reinhart advocating financial repression] [...] [Because Austerity didn't work.] Tatsächlich habe die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik - die Haushaltsdefizite senkt und Strukturreformen für mehr Wachstum durchführt - recht wenig getan, um den Schuldenberg wirklich zu verringern. Die Politik könnte die Last für die nächsten Jahre sogar verschlimmert haben, sagen viele Volkswirte. Die Sparpolitik hat das Wachstum überraschend stark beeinträchtigt. Während die Hinweise darauf, dass die Strukturreformen tatsächlich die Wirtschaft beflügeln, eher überschaubar ausfallen. Stattdessen sinken Einkommen, Gewinne und Steuereinnahmen, was die Schuldenlast immer schwerer erträglich macht.
debt  servicing  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  QE  KennethRogoff  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history  MarioDraghi  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  austerity  IMF  Japan  UK  USA  budget  deficit  France  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  New  Normal  PIMCO  Mohamed  El-Erian  debt  jubilee  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  private  debt  public  debt  household  debt  carmenreinhart  WallStreet  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  communication  babyboomers  haircut  PIGS  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richardkoo 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
Europe  europeanunion  banking  union  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  austerity  2013  2014  France  Spain  Italy  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Japan  economic  history  history  Angela  Merkel  political  folly  political  error  FrancoisHollande  policy  error  policy  folly  ECB  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richardkoo  reflation  deflationary  deflation  inflation  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  unintended  consequences  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  unconventional  monetary  policy 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
EZB hält Leitzins auf historischem Tiefstand - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Trotz der niedrigen Zinsen kommt das billige Geld derzeit nicht bei Unternehmen und Haushalten an. Vor allem in Südeuropa ist die Kreditvergabe weiter rückläufig. Um das zu ändern, wird im EZB-Rat über den Einsatz unkonventioneller Instrumente nachgedacht. Dazu gehören zum Beispiel negative Zinsen für Einlagen der Banken der EZB, aber auch neue langfristige Finanzspritzen.
liquidity-trap  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  system  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  LTRO  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  unintended  consequences  complexity  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIGS  recovery  austerity  liberal  economic  reform  trust  trustagent  confidence  policy  error  policy  folly  political  folly  political  error  economic  history  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  divergence  Super  Cycle  lostdecade  lostgeneration  stagflation  stagnation  secular  stagnation  Japan 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Worrying trends for the UK economy
In other words, the record amount of private debt, which has just reached £1.43 trillion, points to how borrowing has fuelled consumption. As we saw from the crash five years ago when debt was lower than now, debt-fuelled consumption isn't a sustainable or reliable source of growth. [...] Could the UK be facing what the US economist Larry Summers has described as America's "secular stagnation". It's a worry that the ageing population and a slower growth of the labour force mean a slower growing economy.
GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  UK  2013  economic  history  recovery  austerity  deflationary  deflation  inflation  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  output-gap  productivity  larrysummers  stagflation  stagnation  secular  cycle  Japan  lostdecade  lostgeneration  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  spare  capacity 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Bubbles, Regulation, and Secular Stagnation - NYTimes.com
In brief, there is a case for believing that the problem of maintaining adequate aggregate demand is going to be very persistent – that we may face something like the “secular stagnation” many economists feared after World War II. [...] The stability of prices and output masked an underlying unsustainable growth in leverage. [...] Our current episode of deleveraging will eventually end, which will shift the IS curve back to the right. But if we have effective financial regulation, as we should, it won’t shift all the way back to where it was before the crisis. Or to put it in plainer English, during the good old days demand was supported by an ever-growing burden of private debt, which we neither can nor should expect to resume; as a result, demand is going to be lower even once the crisis fades. [...] our current situation may well go on much longer than anyone currently imagines.
student  loan  debt  lobby  deregulation  monetary  policy  lobbyist  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  reflation  dual  mandate  fiscal  stimulus  Lobbying  BOE  BOJ  macroeconomics  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  trap  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  bubble  political  error  paulkrugman  austerity  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  nominal  GDP  targeting  dis-inflation  deleveraging  regulation  economics  public  debt  secular  stagnation  inflation  private  debt  balance  sheet  recession  mandate  debt  jubilee  GFC  complexity  excess  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  consumer  debt  liquidity-trap  political  folly  WWII  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  error  regulators  debtoverhang  Wicksellian  natural  interest  rate  NIRP  Fed  microeconomics  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  Great  Moderation  leverage  stagnation  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  ZIRP  USA  household  debt  fiscal  theory  Japan  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaftfonds warnt Deutschland vor hartem Sparkurs - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Sparen kann man es auch übertreiben: Das ist eine Kernbotschaft des neuen IWF-Berichts über die Lage in Deutschland. Um die heimische Wirtschaft zu stärken, empfiehlt der Fonds auch Lohnerhöhungen. >> http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/iwf-frankreich-soll-weniger-sparen-a-914953.html
France  debtoverhang  austerity  2013  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  IWF  lostdecade  greatrecession  sovereign  crisis  IMF 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
This short-term thinking will lead to huge long-term damage - MoneyWeekMoneyWeek
Global acting Companies - steered by Wall Street and EPS (earnings per shares) - are not incentivised to invest into the future of the company, but to keep Wall Street happy till the next quarter and thus keeping their job.
stakeholder  unemployment  lostgeneration  complexity  incentive  short-term  thinking  shareholder  Great  Moderation  output-gap  unintended  consequences  investment  corporate  investment  ZIRP  EPS  WallStreet  zombie  corporations  financial  incentive  lostdecade  share  buyback  corporate  governance 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Zinstief kostet deutsche Sparer laut neuer Postbank-Studie Milliarden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die extrem niedrigen Zinsen in Europa kosten deutsche Sparer offenbar Milliarden: Nach Berechnungen der Postbank verlieren die Sparvermögen bei Banken in Deutschland allein in diesem Jahr real rund 14 Milliarden Euro an Wert, wie die "Bild"-Zeitung unter Berufung auf die Studie berichtet.
monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  babyboomers  liquidity-trap  BOE  banking  crisis  ECB  BOJ  monetary  system  bank  crisis  lostdecade  debtoverhang  NIRP  2013  Fed  lostgeneration  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Ökonomen starten Aufruf zur Unterstützung der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Das sehen allerdings nicht alle Ökonomen so. Ifo-Präsident Sinn jedenfalls reagierte verhalten auf den Aufruf: "Niemand bestreitet, dass sich die Kapitalmärkte beruhigen lassen, wenn man den Käufern der südlichen Staatspapiere mit Hilfe des OMT kostenlosen Versicherungsschutz anbietet", sagte er SPIEGEL ONLINE. Eine solche Lösung sei zwar "für Schuldner und Gläubiger gleichermaßen attraktiv", allerdings nicht für die Steuerzahler der bislang "noch gesunden Länder Europas". Diese müssten am Ende die Verluste der EZB tragen.
monetary  policy  complexity  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  deflation  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  policy  error  lostdecade  policy  folly  QE  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  PIGS  debt  monetisation  political  error  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  inflation  debt  monetization 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What Is A "Liquidity Trap" And Why Is Bernanke Caught In It? | Zero Hedge
"The real concern for investors, and individuals, is the actual economy. We are likely experiencing more than just a 'soft patch' currently despite the mainstream analysts' rhetoric to the contrary. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term is likely telling us just that. The big question for the Fed is how to get themselves out of the 'liquidity trap' they have gotten themselves into without cratering the economy, and the financial markets, in the process. As we said recently this is the same question that Japan is trying to figure out as well." >> Tim Geithner once said in an agressive clear tone on that question 'the US is not Japan.'
monetary  policy  complexity  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  ECB  deflation  BOJ  Structural  Impediments  lostdecade  QE  debtoverhang  NIRP  lostgeneration  economic  history  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  imbalance  austerity  ZIRP  USA  timgeithner  deleveraging  long-term  unemployment  deflationary  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
UBS CIO Warns Of Japanese "Abegeddon" Scenario | Zero Hedge
With Nikkei 225 futures having faded their European morning bounce and pressuring back towards the 20% 'bear market' correction levels once again, it seems the 'stampede' is out of growth-expectation-driven equities as JGBs are bid for now. That bid (no matter how hard the BoJ tries) is unlikely to last if the doubt grows as Japan's debt-to-GDP would rise above 300% (from 226% currently) and the 10Y JGB yield could approach 5%!
QE  monetary  policy  2013  Politics  lostgeneration  inflation  targeting  monetary  theory  stagflation  reflation  debt  monetisation  structural  imbalance  ZIRP  BOJ  monetary  system  inflation  Abenomics  debt  monetization  Japan  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
OtterWood Observations on Japan, May 2013 - YouTube
As the BoJ prepares to thrill us with even moar in its latest policy meeting (or not as we discussed earlier) and with Amari et al. now jawboning JPY to some extent to control the out-of-control chaos in JGBs, it is perhaps worth taking 20 minutes to comprehend just what all this extreme policy action means. The following brief presentation covers it all in a Kyle-Bass-ian facts-and-fallacies manner, Christine Hughes sums it all up perfectly, for Japan, "The Math Is Stacked Against Japan - It's Not 'If', It's When." >> "The Math Is Stacked Against Japan - It's Not 'If', It's When" >> - 5 year time horizon - + http://www.businessinsider.com/kyle-bass-warns-against-japanese-stocks-2013-4 + http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2013/04/kyle-bass-gets-it-wrong-on-japanese-bonds.html "The bond vigilante stuff is a myth."
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  currency  war  bond  vigilante  GFC  reflation  unintended  consequences  New  Normal  Yen  BOJ  currency-war  Gold  Abenomics  lostdecade  debtoverhang  QE  JGB  NIRP  financial  repression  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  Carry  Trade  monetisation  bubble  sovereign  crisis  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  inflation  monetization  Japan 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Are Japanese Banks On The Verge Of Insolvency? | Zero Hedge
The inability of the BoJ to 'control' Japanese interest rates (JGB rates spiking unprecedentedly day after day) has put the banking system in a lot of trouble. As we explained recently the banks appeared to initially 'hedge' their huge JGB positions but now appear to recognize that first out wins and are reducing exposure overall (YTD -3.7% according to local data). [...] According to BOJ estimates, a 100 basis point (parallel) rise in market yields would lead to mark-to-market (MTM) losses of 20 percent of Tier-1 capital for regional banks (not taking into account net unrealized gains on securities), against 10 percent for the major banks. [...] >> He who sells first wins... <<
QE  JGB  NIRP  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  inflation  targeting  reflation  Yen  ZIRP  banking  crisis  BOJ  bank  crisis  inflation  Abenomics  Richardkoo  lostdecade  Japan 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Pläne für eine Bankenunion - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die geplante Bankenunion kommt zu spät für die gegenwärtige Krise - denn ohne eine Änderung der EU-Verträge wird sie nicht funktionieren. Der Euro-Zone droht ein Jahrzehnt der Stagnation, weil es für Unternehmen in Südeuropa kaum noch Kredite gibt.
Politics  GFC  Europe  European  Commission  zombie  banks  recapitalisation  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  europeanunion  Troika  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  zombie  corporations  political  folly  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly  lostgeneration  economic  history  financial  repression  creditcrunch  political  error  sovereign  debt  crisis  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  austerity  USA  deleveraging  toobigtofail  systemicrisk  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Saxo Bank CEO On The 'Eurozone Minefield': "This Crisis Will Not Pass" | Zero Hedge
Cyprus was indeed a template for bail ins and that outright confiscatory wealth taxes, disguised as solidarity payments, could be used to raise funds. "The governments of Europe need money, and the private sector has it. It is as simple as that. Be very paranoid," he said, warning investors that the mattress may be a safer place to deposit money over the weekend than their bank accounts. "Frankly, it is a complete mess. And it is a mess that gets worse and worse every day," is how the outspoken truthiness begins, adding, "anyone with a rational view of the world now sees the currency collaboration as a historic failure that can lead to even further fatal consequences for Europe and the continent’s competitiveness vis-à-vis the rest of the world."
currency  union  2013  Politics  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  Saxo  Bank  unintended  consequences  Political  error  Lars  Seier  Christensen  Euro  Policy  bail-in  europeanunion  Troika  greatdepression  folly  Cyprus  NiallFerguson  greatrecession  lostdecade  folly 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Junk's heyday is here and now - YouTube
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-09/deutsche-bank-we-fully-understand-why-authorities-wouldnt-want-free-markets-operate- "We would stress that we fully understand why the authorities wouldn't want free markets to operate today as the risk of a huge global default and unemployment cycle would still be very high. However their intervention has a cost in our opinion. Socially this might be worth paying but we do think it exists."
bankruptcy  cycle  unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  zombie  banks  fixed  income  miltonfriedman  BOJ  artificial  demand  Insolvenzverschleppung  QE  lostgeneration  demand  and  supply  property  bubble  hayek  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  bubble  default  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  debt  monetization  centralbanks  insolvency  cycle  Free  Lunch  IMF  default  cycle  GFC  refinancing  corporate  debt  haircut  unintended  consequences  high  yield  debt  Student  Loan  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  default  rate  credit  bubble  greatrecession  lostdecade  NIRP  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  default  scenario  ZIRP  Junk  Bonds 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Japanese Government Bonds Halted Limit Down; Yields Spike To 10 Week High; Worst Day In 5 Years | Zero Hedge
It appears things are getting a little out of control around the world. .... [...] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-10/overnight-yen-tumble-sends-asia-scrambling-retaliate >> " Sure enough, midway through the evening session, Sri Lanka cut its reverse repo and repurchase rate to 9% and 7% respectively, promptly followed by Vietnam cutting its own refinancing rate from 8% to 7%, then moving to Thailand where the finance chief Kittiratt called for a rate cut exceeding 25 bps, and more jawboning from South Korea suggesting even more rate cuts from the export-driven country are set to come as it loses trade competitiveness to Japan. Asian financial crisis 2.0 any minute now? "
currency  debasement  QE  JGB  monetary  policy  currency  war  Politics  lostgeneration  economic  history  inflation  targeting  reflation  devaluation  Yen  ZIRP  BOJ  competitiveness  inflation  Asia  centralbanks  Japan  lostdecade 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB's Draghi 'ready to act if needed'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvHvyvPd0PU + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/ezb-senkt-leitzins-auf-rekordtief-von-0-5-prozent-a-897701.html "Die Währungshüter hoffen, dass die Finanzbranche das billige Geld in Form von Krediten an Unternehmen und Verbraucher weiterreichen wird." + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-senkt-leitzins-draghis-gefaehrlicher-rettungsversuch-a-897771.html ... >> After the GFC, banks should have been privatised (creditors to take haircuts) in 2010/11, those who were not banks (ie lending), but mere zombie banks. Europe is doing the same mistake as Japan. >> see Apple example - unintended consequences. Microsoft too.
monetary  policy  financialcrisis  GFC  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  folly  QE  debtoverhang  communication  economic  history  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  NPL  PIGS  bubble  error  creditcrunch  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Reinhart, Rogoff... and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs
http://www.peri.umass.edu/236/hash/31e2ff374b6377b2ddec04deaa6388b1/publication/566/ "not every economy is same, times are always different." >> Reply by Rogoff & Reinhart: 'We were only arguing association, not causality.' [...] Discovering a spreadsheet error was never going to end the debate over austerity - and nor should it, according to Megan McArdle, special correspondent for Newsweek and The Daily Beast. >> http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/panne-mit-excel-tabelle-rogoff-und-reinhart-haben-sich-verrechnet-a-894893.html "Olivier Blanchard (IMF) gestand ein die negativen Effekte der Sparpolitik auf das Wachstum unterschätzt wurden." >> Updated paper from Rogoff & Reinhart http://www.nber.org/papers/w18015 >> http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/holy-coding-error-batman/ http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/16/unemployment-reinhart-rogoff-arithmetic-cause
academics  complexity  sociology  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  academia  science  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  political  folly  bank  crisis  macroeconomics  lostdecade  policy  folly  macroeconomic  policy  debtoverhang  lostgeneration  economic  history  philosophy  fiscal  policy  social  science  confidence  KennethRogoff  error  trustagent  paulkrugman  austerity  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  IWF  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Chart Making The Fed Nervous | Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/fed-governor-stein-warns-when-tbtf-bank-fails-depositors-will-be-cyprused "all too clear that part of the Dodd-Frank resolution authority guidelines, a bailout is no longer an option." Cyprus was the first, and will not be the last incident of bail-in solution for TBTF >> this whole this is a replay of Japan 90s and 2000s
monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  Cyprus  deposit  levy  policy  folly  QE  SIFI  PIGS  UK  Error  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  inflation  expectation  deleveraging  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  monetary  theory  output-gap  haircut  derivatives  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  Insured  Bank  Deposits  political  folly  crisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  debtoverhang  FDIC  LTRO  OMT  Fed  trust  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  toobigtofail  POMO  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
More Children in Greece Start to Go Hungry - NYTimes.com
Last year, an estimated 10 percent of Greek elementary and middle school students suffered from what public health professionals call “food insecurity,” ... “When it comes to food insecurity, Greece has now fallen to the level of some African countries,” she said.
angelamerkel  Greece  2013  Politics  lostgeneration  human  tragedy  Europe  European  Commission  Policy  Error  austerity  Troika  greatdepression  political  folly  lostdecade  IMF  folly 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
IMF Warns Spanish Debt-Load Is Unsustainable | Zero Hedge
The IMF warns Spain "will need to undertake unprecedented fiscal efforts to bring their debt ratios to traditional norms," as most countries have never experienced debt levels similar to current ones; and seemed to think a debt restructuring is more likely and will "entail substantial and long-lasting economic and social costs."
2013  lostgeneration  Spain  deposit  haircut  economic  history  haircut  European  Commission  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Troika  greatdepression  debt  restructuring  deposit  levy  lostdecade  greatrecession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
El-Erian's Summary: "Virtually Every Market Is Trading At Very Artificial Levels" | Zero Hedge
http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-85F75B51_F954_46E1_861D_EC47CC278296.html >> "if these levels aren’t validated by the fundamentals, then investors will get hurt." WORTH LISTENING EVERY MINUTE. > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/not-what-low-volatility-environment-looks > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/margin-clerks-were-working " Long experience in the markets will inform you that this kind of massive sell-off is indicative of someone or perhaps a numbers of someones with serious problems. " [...] The markets can turn on a dime and the move can be severe and painful. [...] The cash provided by the Central Banks has been leveraged to the nines as indicated by the severity of the sell-off in both gold and equities. > Europe lost out on design and execution to overcome crisis. > Rating Agencies have monopoly. With monopoly comes problems. > Trust, but verify.
unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  BOJ  Gold  Structural  Impediments  Equity  QE  2013  UK  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  imbalance  debt  bubble  Error  trustagent  austerity  bubble  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  ratingagencies  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  PIMCO  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  ECB  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  political  folly  income  growth  China  greatrecession  uncertainty  lostdecade  monopoly  debtoverhang  Fed  trust  economic  history  financial  repression  bubbles  income-growth  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Next Domino: Australia Doubles Tax On Retirement Savings | Zero Hedge
How much do you trust your government? >> Portugal, Ireland, Hungary & Co. raiding savings of ordinary people. raiding long-term funds for short-term holes. Promises are there to be broken. Laws to be rewritten. >> BOJ putting a tax in form of currency debasement (forced inflation / debt monetization) on its savers and pensioners. >> the problem with current form of democracy is - the short-term thinking that went on for 70 years.
currency  debasement  Politics  Europe  transferring-wealth  pension  scheme  IRA  BOJ  political  folly  Cyprus  Australia  democracy  greatrecession  lostdecade  policy  folly  JGB  middleclass  2013  lostgeneration  short-term  thinking  trust  pension  fund  working  poor  confidence  wealth  management  Error  401k  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  middle  class  USA  PIIGS  greatdepression  pension 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Ökonomen und Sozialwissenschaftler zweifeln an der Demokratie - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Demokratien haben einen zu kurzen Zeithorizont." http://ineteconomics.org/conference/hongkong http://www.youtube.com/user/INETeconomics/ [...] Je höher das Wohlstandsniveau, desto wichtiger werden den Bürgern immaterielle Werte wie Freiheit, Rechtssicherheit oder demokratische Teilhabe.
property  law  Politics  INET  short-term  thinking  GFC  humanrights  philosophy  economic  history  freedom  of  press  intellectualproperty  academia  georgesoros  liberal  democracy  greatdepression  economic-thought  NiallFerguson  Russia  democracy  China  greatrecession  lostdecade 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Complete (And Very Disturbing) European Bank Loan-To-Deposit Ratios: A Redux | Zero Hedge
The chart [above] explains why not only is Europe's several asset constrained, it is also running out of funding, in the form of depositor cash: the most critical bank liability. Remember: without incremental deposits, banks can not invest in new assets, unless they generate cash from operations, and thus grow shareholder equity. There is a problem: as the final chart below shows, Europe, and especially Scandinavia which has consistently remained off the radar, is literally off the charts when it comes to LTD ratios.   With banks such as Danske, SHB, Swebank, DnB, and Nordea literally at 200% Loan-to-Deposits, but most other European banks too, even the tiniest outflow in deposit cash (ala what is happening in the PIIGS) will send the system into yet another liquidity spasm.
2013  scandinavia  GFC  Europe  creditcrunch  debt  bubble  banking  crisis  greatdepression  deleveraging  2012  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Dylan Grice Explains How "Crackpot" Central Bankers Are Destroying Society | Zero Hedge
Distrust is a brake on prosperity, because distrust is a brake on exchange. [...] So when central banks play the games with money of which they are so fond, we wonder if they realize that they are also playing games with social bonding. Do they realize that by devaluing money they are devaluing society? [...] Fed has monetized 50% of US Debt since 2009. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-11/foodstamp-recipients-hit-record-alongside-record-dow-jones-and-record-debt-20-eligib - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-11/presenting-currence-crises-devaluations-and-regime-changes-collapse-gold-standard
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  academia  BOE  ECB  BOJ  currency-war  greatrecession  lostdecade  QE  Fed  society  lostgeneration  trust  economic  history  philosophy  confidence  trustagent  ZIRP  greatdepression  economics  centralbanks 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Bank Of Japan May Buy Derivatives Next | Zero Hedge
Because having legal authority to buy corporate bonds, ETFs and REITs, in addition to everything else the Fed now buys, is apparently not enough to crush, mangle and suicide its currency, the BOJ is now considering adding yet another "asset" to its cocktail of eligible securities for purchase: those which Buffett once declared weapons of mass financial destruction - derivatives.
currency  debasement  QE  monetary  policy  2013  fiat  currency  economic  history  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  derivatives  liquidity-trap  ZIRP  deflation  BOJ  currency-war  abenomics  inflation  lostdecade  Japan 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
FraudBytes: Justice Department Admits They're Soft on Fraud
+ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03/failure-to-prosecute-fraud-causes-economic-downturns/ " I am concerned that the size of some of these institutions [banks] becomes so large that it does become difficult for us to prosecute them when we are hit with indications that if you do prosecute, if you do bring a criminal charge, it will have a negative impact on the national economy, perhaps even the world economy" --- In fact, failing to prosecute criminal fraud has been destabilizing the economy since at least 2007 … and will cause huge crashes in the future. [...] Nobel prize winning economist George Akerlof has demonstrated that failure to punish white collar criminals – and instead bailing them out- creates incentives for more economic crimes and further destruction of the economy in the future.
justice  GFC  ethics  fraud  josephstiglitz  white-collar  worker  NINJA  loans  white-collar  crime  Law  &  barackobama  ponzischeme  banking  crisis  criminal  fraud  George  Akerlof  subprime  bank  crisis  lostdecade  greatrecession  moralhazard  trust  economic  history  mortgage  fraud  confidence  trustagent  white-collar  fraud  USA  greatdepression  DoJ  economics  toobigtofail  presidency 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Watchdog contradicts Cameron on impact of austerity on growth
In a speech on the economy on Thursday, the prime minister said the independent watchdog had made it "absolutely clear" that spending cuts and tax rises were not responsible for the weak economy. But the OBR said it had been arguing for years that this was an issue. Labour said it was an "embarrassing rebuke" for the prime minister.
debtoverhang  OBR  2013  Politics  communication  GFC  lostgeneration  economic  history  UK  stagnation  austerity  davidcameron  greatdepression  deleveraging  GeorgeOsborne  lostdecade  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
IceCap Asset Management: "The Worst Is Over" | Zero Hedge
The worrisome feature of today’s global economy is that despite trillions (we repeat: trillions) in various forms of stimulus, economies around the World have not returned to the pre-2008 growth rates. > ECB may be able to artificially suppress PIIGS interest rates. but it can't create growth with QE and ZIRP > same with credit growth - stagnant. even with zero deposit interest rates for banks (overnight deposit @ECB). > that happend with Japan too. low interest rates. no growth. nil inflation. --- / What is missing is Confidence in Politics and Central Banks / ---
debtoverhang  QE  unemployment  monetary  policy  2013  Politics  trust  lostgeneration  economic  history  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  ECB  Richardkoo  lostdecade  greatrecession  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Europe's Scariest Chart Update: Italy Now Worse Than Portugal | Zero Hedge
For the first time in two years, Italy's youth unemployment rate is now higher than Portugal's at a staggering 38.7% (which is where Greece was just two years ago). Apart from Germany (which fell from 8.0% to 7.9%), every other nation saw youth unemployment rates rise with a record 24.2% of European youth unemployed. Greece (59.4%) and Spain (55.5%) remain the most concerning as we noted in the past, austerity sounds straightforward as a policy, until the consequences bite in terms of social unrest.
austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  2013  lostgeneration  Europe  greatrecession  lostdecade  youth  unemployment 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
If You Thought The European Crisis Was Over... | Zero Hedge
http://www.voxeu.org/article/panic-driven-austerity-eurozone-and-its-implications [...] Austerity has failed. European Banks remain Rotten to the Core Sovereigns remain in Crisis [...] Since the start of the debt crisis financial markets have provided wrong signals; led by fear and panic, they pushed the spreads to artificially high levels and forced cash-strapped nations into intense austerity that produced great suffering. [...] Panic and fear are not good guides for economic policies. [...] The intense austerity programs that have been dictated by financial markets create new risks for the Eurozone. While the ECB 2012 decision to be a lender of last resort in the government bond markets eliminated the existential fears about the future of the Eurozone, the new risks for the future of the Eurozone now have shifted into the social and political sphere.
2008  debtoverhang  2013  Politics  GFC  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  zombie  banks  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  PIIGS  banking  crisis  greatdepression  WallStreet  deleveraging  lostdecade  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
A Century Of French And Italian Economic Decline | Zero Hedge
Italy overtook Japan with the worst real GDP growth of all advanced economies since 1991. [...] France has the most most worker-friendly environment of 40 countries analyzed. [...] All things considered, from an investment standpoint, caution continues to be warranted. [...] As shown, problems in Europe appear to be taking their toll on EU corporate profitability.
debtoverhang  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  Europe  Italy  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  PIIGS  greatdepression  GDP  deleveraging  Austerity  inflation  lostdecade  Japan  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
february 2013 by asterisk2a
Ex-Soros Adviser: Japan Could Face Fiscal Collapse: Video - Bloomberg
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s fiscal and monetary stimulus measures may trigger a collapse of Japan’s economy as early as this year, according to Takeshi Fujimaki, a former adviser to billionaire investor George Soros.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-14/yen-soars-following-econ-minister-comments-it-has-corrected-line-fundamentals
abenomics  Japan  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  lostdecade  2013  economic  history 
january 2013 by asterisk2a
Stephen Roach On Why Abe's Aggression Won't Save Japan //via ZeroHedge
The politicization of central banking continues unabated.

[...] [... GFC USA Aftermath ...]

When the bubbles burst, households understandably became fixated on balance-sheet repair – namely, paying down debt and rebuilding personal savings, rather than resuming excessive spending habits.

[...]

US consumers have pulled back as never before. In the 19 quarters since the start of 2008, annualized growth of inflation-adjusted consumer spending has averaged just 0.7% – almost three percentage points below the 3.6% trend increases recorded in the 11 years ending in 2006.

[...]

Not only is QE’s ability to jumpstart crisis-torn, balance-sheet-constrained economies limited; it also runs the important risk of blurring the distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. Central banks that buy sovereign debt issued by fiscal authorities offset market-imposed discipline on borrowing costs, effectively subsidizing public-sector profligacy.
UK  stephenroach  liquidity-trap  currency-war  currency  debasement  banking  crisis  debtoverhang  France  structural  imbalance  status  quo  Politics  liberal  economic  reform  PIIGS  Europe  savings  glut  zombie  consumer  greatrecession  GFC  Richardkoo  zombie  banks  Japan  lostgeneration  lostdecade  2013  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  debt  monetisation  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  2012  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  ECB  Fed  USA  balance  sheet  recession  consumption  consumer 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Kyle Bass' 5 Reasons Why The Japanese Government Bond Market Will Collapse by 2016 - YouTube
>> his balance of payments/trade prediction at current trajectory (from 2011 & 1H 2012) was correct. Q3 & Q4 trade deteriorated dramatically, may have to do w global slowdown 2012/2013 ... or ...

Original Here Oct 2012: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY

2011 Talk: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2gvMtDVI0A

>> More:
Kyle Bass on Europe from late 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4g9LEhCMF8

>> More:
Market Pulse: Japan's FX intervention warning...with a twist
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlFg3AxpRs8
JPY  greatrecession  GFC  default  scenario  default  2013  2012  Abenomics  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Politics  BOJ  sovereign  debt  crisis  JGB  Japan 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Japan wählt neues Unterhaus: LDP und Abe zurück an die Macht - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Wunsch nach Stabilität war offenbar stärker als die Hoffnung auf politischen Neuanfang und gesellschaftlichen Wandel: In Japan haben die Parlamentswahlen am Sonntag eine Partei zurück an die Macht gebracht, die seit 1955 fast ununterbrochen regierte und wie kaum eine andere das Establishment verkörpert.

Die Liberaldemokratische Partei LDP sicherte sich eine absolute Mehrheit der 480 Sitze im mächtigen japanischen Unterhaus. Neuer Regierungschef wird wohl der rechtskonservative Parteivorsitzende Shinzo Abe, 58, der das Amt bereits von 2006 bis 2007 innehatte, dann jedoch aus gesundheitlichen Gründen zurücktrat. Abe stammt aus einer bekannten Politikerfamilie.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-16/japanese-yen-celebrates-arrival-abenomics-20-opens-20-month-low

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-16/abenomics-back-shinzo-abe-returns-japanese-pm-following-crushing-ldp-victory

"Abe is the worst premier for JGBs since 1994"
monetization  monetarism  JGB  JPY  Keynesianism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Abenomics  policy  folly  policy  error  2012  deflation  currency-war  currency  debasement  QE  BOJ  greatrecession  GFC  lostdecade  status  quo  LDP  election2012  Politics  Japan 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Monetary policy in Japan: Battle of the BOJ | The Economist
Stockmarket analysts have generally welcomed Mr Abe’s pledge to inflate the economy with aggressive pump-priming measures, saying it has already cheapened the yen and boosted share prices. They hope he will do more to stir business activity if his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wins the December 16th election. But they should consider carefully what they wish for. As share prices have risen recently, so have long-term bond yields. If too reckless a reflationary effort awakens Japan’s “bond vigilantes” from a 20-year coma, there could be hell to pay.

[...] a full-scale sell-off in the bond market would cripple Japanese banks. That fear makes it hard for the BOJ to reach its 1% inflation goal, let alone a 3% one.

[...] And confidence, on which Japan’s huge stock of domestically held savings depends, is the most precious asset the country has left.
confidence  trustagent  trust  debt  monetisation  Richardkoo  greatrecession  inflation  targeting  lostdecade  Japan  monetary  policy  reflation  BOJ  JGB 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Zuwanderung von Ingenieuren aus Südeuropa nützt Deutschland - SPIEGEL ONLINE
So absurd es klingen mag: Die Euro-Krise hilft Unternehmen wie Ziehl-Abegg. Denn der Bewerberstrom aus Südeuropa wird in den nächsten Monaten kaum abreißen: Im ersten Halbjahr 2012 kamen netto rund 182.000 Zuwanderer nach Deutschland, 35 Prozent mehr als im Vorjahreszeitraum. Die Zahl der Portugiesen und Spanier stieg gegenüber 2011 um mehr als die Hälfte, die Zahl der griechischen Zuwanderer steig um 78 Prozent. In der Krise gilt Deutschland als letzte Zuflucht vor der Massenarbeitslosigkeit und der tiefen Rezession in ihren Heimatländern.

[...]

Imigration ... Das habe Deutschland auch bitter nötig: "Der demografische Wandel wird uns in 10 bis 15 Jahren voll treffen. Bis dahin müssen wir unser Erwerbspersonenpotential entwickeln", sagt Brücker. Ob der Zustrom aus dem Süden aber noch lange anhält, hält der Ökonom aber für sehr fraglich: "Wir haben eine einmalige Situation. Fast überall in Europa ist Krise, nur in Deutschland nicht. Das bleibt nicht für immer so."
babyboomers  demography  demographics  lostgeneration  lostdecade  greatrecession  germany  emigration  imigaration  2012  Portugal  Greece  Spain  unemployment  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Use QE to buy 'bad mortgages' says Fathom's Gabay - YouTube
Austerity to hit really just as 2013 get underway.
BOE should hold against it with further easying in other direct forms to hold economy afloat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdOK2EL1D18
governance  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  lostdecade  greatrecession  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  ZIRP  QE  2013  2012  austerity  BOE  UK 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Sharp Drops After Saying Material Doubt on Survival - Bloomberg
SHARP and PANASONIC likely next candidates to fail (bankruptcy, reorganisation, splitting of assets). Their demise is partly to contribute not being able to stay in touch of technology trends. It is a dead end street to compete simply by price where ur products are just a commodity.

Same with Motorola and their cell phone business.
Same with Nokia and their cell phone business.
Same with RIM and their cell phone business.
Same w Kodak and photo business.

- But what makes it even worse for SHARP and PANASONIC is that they a Japanese companies, with Japanese Corp. ORG structures. Also see OLYMPUS.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2010/07/japanese_corporate_culture
http://www.cityam.com/forum/the-japanese-disease-how-its-corporate-culture-turns-disasters-catastrophes
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-biggest-problem-with-japanese-corporate-culture-lives-on-2012-9
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_management_culture
Apple  Kodak  management  corporate  governance  corporate  culture  Olympus  Eastman  Kodak  Eastman  Kodak  Company  Research  In  Motion  RIM  Google  Motorola  Amazon  commoditization  lostgeneration  lostdecade  Japan  Panasonic  Corporation  Sharp  Corporation  Nokia  technology  innovation 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Bond guru Gundlach on the U.S., China and Apple - Market Extra - MarketWatch
The investing environment since the 1980s has been dominated by an explosion of debt financing, leading to extra consumption and the financial-market expansion that stems from all the extra trading.

“The next 30 years are not going to be the same,” “If instead we go into opposite trend and have debt paid down, the government is not running deficits and [see] rising interest rates potentially, then everything is backwards.”

So Gundlach’s longer-term recommendation is that once that becomes apparent, he would buy emerging-market equities, because of the more supportive growth patterns in those countries.

Investors are largely relying on central banks to boost growth. But Gundlach sees unintended consequences that could weaken growth for decades to come.

He also believes that the Fed’s policies are having the unintended consequence of making it harder for young people to find jobs, because older people are working longer since their savings are no longer enough to live off of.
youth  unemployment  unemployment  BOE  ECB  Fed  lostgeneration  financial  repression  babyboomers  deleveraging  QE  stagflation  lostdecade  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  debt  bubble  ZIRP  unintended  consequences 
october 2012 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo Explains It's Not The Fed, Stupid; It's The Fiscal Cliff! | ZeroHedge
US is beginning to look more like Japan. The Japanese experience made it clear that when the private sector is minimizing debt (deleveraging) with very low interest rates, there is little that monetary policy can do. The government cannot tell the private sector 'don't repay your balance sheets'
because private sector must repair its balance sheets. In Koo's words: "the only thing the government can do is to spend the money that the private sector has saved and put that back into the income stream" - which (rightly or wrongly) places the US economy in the hands of the US Congress (and makes the Fed irrelevant).

Deleveraging even with ZIRP & QE123 & OpTwist & Language shows how sick balance sheet of private sector is. + Lack of Confidence + Structural Impairments of Domestic & Global Economy !

http://bloom.bg/njrCIQ

Koo advocating continued fiscal stimulus.

Fed engaged more aggressive w QE3/OpTwist & ZIRP ext. because nobody would bet on Congress to avoid Fiscal Cliff 2012/13.
globalisation  global-economy  faultlines  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  OpertationTwist  trust  confidence  lostdecade  lost  barackobama  presidency  election2012  Japan  academics  academia  economics  supply-demand  stimulus  QE2  MBS  QE  deleveraging  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  2012  Cliff  monetary  theory  ZIRP  monetary  policy  property  bubble  benbernake  Fed  debt  bubble  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  QE3  USA  Richardkoo 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Rosenberg Sees U.S. Growth Potential Near 2%-2.5%: Video - Bloomberg
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., talks about the outlook for financial markets, the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy. Rosenberg, speaking with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance," also discusses Deutsche Bank AG and the banking industry (Source: Bloomberg)

-
Even with credit growth resuming, GDP output will be less than in the past.

Structural imbalance, impairment.

Talking about Equity Monologue all have (Bloomberg, WSJ, FT).

Lack of domestic demand, due to still existing problems that partially caused GFC.

Businesses lack confidence to start new projects. New projects, new technologies, new industries (ie renewable energy, infrastructure, recycling industry?).
Long-term goals needed - to instil certainty. The spark is missing. That moment in time, realisation, inspiration.
Fix fiscal policy.
Political courage, shared sacrifice.
No fairy tales.
lostgeneration  fiscal  policy  election2012  Politics  confidence  uncertainty  economics  supply-demand  WallStreet  debtoverhang  structural  imbalance  balance  sheet  recession  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  2012  USA  output-gap 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Münchau: Warum Draghis Programme keine Inflation bringen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milton Friedmans Monetarismus ist nicht gescheitert, weil er falsch war, sondern weil sich die Welt geändert hat.

[...]

Um Inflation wirklich zu verstehen, bedarf es des Verständnisses einer komplexen Dynamik, die eine ganze Reihe von Faktoren mit einschließt - unter anderem die gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage, die Entwicklung an Rohstoffmärkten, Arbeitslosigkeit, die Lücke zwischen Auslastung der Industrie und ihrer Kapazität sowie die Entwicklung von Krediten und anderen Finanzindikatoren. Fast alle diese Indikatoren deuten auf eine deflationäre Entwicklung hin.

[...]

Die Aufgabe der Notenbank wird es dann nicht mehr sein, Inflation zu bekämpfen, sondern für ein Mindestmaß an Inflation zu sorgen. Noch besser wäre es, wenn die Notenbanken nicht mehr ein isoliertes Inflationsziel setzen, sondern ein nominales Wachstumsziel verfolgen.
2012  richardkoo  miltonfriedman  PIIGS  nominal  GDP  targeting  OpertationTwist  BOJ  BOE  Fed  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  deflation  deleveraging  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Japan  centralbanks  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetarism  System  LTRO  SMP  ECB  QE  ZIRP  inflation  reflation 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Born Bankrupt: State of UK economy, part1/2 (24Aug12) - YouTube
Generational Theft. In-front of our eyes. Decline in-front of our eyes. Decline is subliminal.

Society's Contract, is broken. Society (baby boomers) is also bankrupt ethically and morally. Who are they to say what ought to be dome about the state of 'the system'!?

Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQVyBo8HMsc

Book: Jilted Generation, Ed Howker (Author)
history  political  theory  book  generational  contract  generational  change  GeorgeOsborne  nickclegg  davidcameron  2012  moralhazard  moral  ethics  society  demographics  demography  fiscal  policy  policy  folly  policy  error  political  economy  politics  accountability  governance  lostgeneration  lostdecade  babyboomers  GordonBrown  tonyblair  UK  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  greatrecession  GFC 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
When Japan Goes Japanese: Presenting The Terminal Keynesian Endgame In 14 Charts | ZeroHedge
Why are JGB yields so low

(1) The real interest rate is generally approximated by the real potential growth rate over the long term. It has fallen sharply in the past two decades due to rapid ageing of the population. In turn, firms have lost some of their capex incentive and thus shifted from cash shortfalls to cash surpluses.
(2) Inflation expectations have fallen in Japan because nominal wage cuts in the late 1990s have led to widespread deflation expectations.
(3) So far the JGB market has not factored in a fiscal premium to a significant extent. This is very different from the sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) market, where pricing is largely determined by foreign investors. Japan’s sovereign CDS spread, which can be seen as an objective assessment of the government’s solvency, has been rising since the late 2000s. We believe the JGB market’s lack of a fiscal premium is due to the stable domestic uptake of JGBs.

Bond Bubble & End of Keynesianism around ~2018.
bond  bubble  Keynesianism  BOJ  deleveraging  richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  CDS  JGB  lostdecade  Japan 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Bagehot: Generation Xhausted | The Economist
Begin with the early 20s, which across the recessionary West, but perhaps especially in Britain, with its high housing costs, are grimmer than in the past: 20-somethings are often indebted, jobless and stuck in an involuntarily protracted adolescence. The Office for National Statistics reckons that nearly 3m people between 20 and 34 were living with their parents last year, almost half a million more than in 1997.

The “sandwich generation”—caught between adolescent children and senescent parents—used to be in their mid-40s. Now the oldies are living and staying healthy for longer, and so requiring care later. Carers UK, a charity, calculates that the number of pensioners who are themselves carers (of either partners or their own ancient parents) is rising fast. Thus 55—an age when, in the past, people were liberated from immediate family obligations to rediscover fun—may soon be the new 45. The sandwich generation is getting stale.

And parents in late 30s; late family + career.
demography  demographics  relationships  well-being  happieness  generational  change  GFC  greatrecession  lostgeneration  lostdecade  babyboomers  generations  change  society  culture 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Five years on, the Great Recession is turning into a life sentence - Telegraph
Five years on it is clear that subprime was merely the first bubble to pop, a symptom not a cause. Europe had its own parallel follies. Britons were extracting almost 5pc of GDP each year in home equity by the end. Spain built 800,00 homes in 2007 for a market of 250,000. Iceland ran amok, so did Latvia and Hungary. The credit debacle was global. If there was an epicentre, it was Europe’s €35 trillion banking nexus.

There comes a point when extra debt draws down prosperity from the future. The future arrived in 2008.

A study by Stephen Cecchetti at the Bank for International Settlements concludes that debt turns “bad” at roughly 85pc of GDP for public debt, 85pc for household debt, and 90pc corporate debt. If all three break the limit together, the system loses its shock absorbers.

http://www.bis.org/publ/work352.htm

Much of the debt will have to be written off. Whether this done by inflation (1945-1952) or default (1930-1934) will be the great political battle of this decade.
politics  policy  folly  policy  error  default  scenario  inflation  reflation  debt  jubilee  economic  history  globalisation  global-economy  global  imbalances  savings  glut  creditcrunch  economic-thought  economic  model  BIS  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  credit  bubble  subprime  property  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  UK  China  USA  Europe  2012  2008  lostdecade  GFC  greatrecession 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Europe's Largest Insurer Allianz Not Amused That Central Banks Are Involved In Liborgate | ZeroHedge
"Europe's biggest insurer, Allianz, is worried about the role central banks may have played in an interest rate rigging scandal that has enveloped some leading international lenders, the insurer's chief financial officer said on Friday. "We do not find it funny, what has happened, in particular the arising implication that it is not just the banks but central banks being involved in this," Oliver Baete told a conference call with analysts. "That really gives us cause for concern," Baete added." Of course, neither the ECB nor the FED could care much, considering that Allianz would be immediately insolvent if the same central banks who manipulated Libor stopped manipulating interest rates... which is implicitly what Allianz is unhappy about.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/allianz-libor-idUSL6E8J3P9720120803
policy  folly  policy  error  unintended  consequences  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  reflation  sovereign  debt  crisis  bond  bubble  ponzischeme  PIMCO  MarioDraghi  PaulTucker  collusion  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  MervynKing  timgeithner  Fed  BBA  BOE  NYFed  ECB  centralbanks  Stockholm  Syndrome  LIBOR  rigging  scandal 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
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