asterisk2a + liquidity-trap   65

Future of Steel - Ken Clarke & Paul Mason - BBC Newsnight
[TORIES CRISIS: bedroom tax, JSA sanctions killing people, Food Banks, redefining child poverty and fuel poverty, Independent Living Fund closed, Housing Crisis, tax cut defeat in Lords, mental health, NHS strikes, Hinkley Point C, energy prices, London Airport expansion/3rd runway, ESA cut, PIP cut and resignation of IDS, Brexit splitting the Party, shit world economy, can't touch triple-lock pensions, Academy plans, Panama Papers (British Territory: Bahamas, Cayman & Co).] Now - Tories are victims to their own policy of underinvestment since 2010 of a future-proof economy "long-term predictability" [BREXIT & austerity not predictable]. Energy prices too high, not competitive. Manufacturing never recovered. Monetary policy has run its course (sedative + Chinas credit bubble). policy folly now wholly exposed! AND now they tinker with the idea of picking winners! LOL! nationalising or part-nationalising through guarantees or subsidies on energy price. & youtu.be/QJw24Z-cEoQ
underinvestment  austerity  Smart  Grid  energy  policy  energy  price  competitive  advantage  competitive  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  budget2010  budget2015  Budget2016  Manufacturing  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  trade  deficit  TPP  AIIB  World  Bank  China  BRIC  commodity  prices  heavy  industry  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  education  policy  skills  gap  skill  gap  skill  investment  apprenticeship  further  education  immigration  migration  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  recovery  output  gap  productivity  productivity  gap  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  labour  market  job  market  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Manifesto  corporate  restructuring  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  subsidies  Privatisation  Nationalization  Nationalisation  constituency  Party  Funding  general  election  2020  IMF  OECD  policy  folly  policy  error  global  economy  credit  bubble  Germany  Hinkley  Point  C  renewable  energy  energy  storage  job  creation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  property  bubble  rent-seeking  rentier  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Save  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
ECB reveals surprise stimulus moves - BBC News
[C]ut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% as part of a package of measures intended to revive the eurozone economy.
The bank will also expand its quantitative easing programme from €60bn to €80bn a month.
The ECB also decided to further cut its bank deposit rate, from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%.
The measures, including the decision to cut the main interest rate, were more radical than investors had expected. John Hardy, head of currency strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "This was a much bigger bazooka than the market was expecting and shows the ECB trying to get ahead of the confidence curve after learning its lesson in December."
The stimulus measures announced three months ago have largely failed to drive economic growth higher or boost inflation. //&! bit.ly/1TP0XJJ - Volles Risiko &! bit.ly/1P8hncF &! bit.ly/1RCF3Tp &! Market Reaction - bit.ly/1LeOrjo &! bit.ly/1RTBJ95 - no investment bc aggregate demand not rising //&! bbc.in/225Eexl
ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  inflation  targeting  LTRO  TLTRO  deflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  Oil  price  commodity  prices  squeezed  middle  class  demographic  bubble  zombie  banks  global  economy  Richard  Koo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap  underinvestment  aggregate  demand  distortion 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Dax knackt 10.000 Punkte: Rekord wegen billigen Gelds von EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Erstmals überspringt der Dax die Marke von 10.000 Punkten. Das beweist erneut, wie sehr der deutsche Leitindex vom billigen Geld der Notenbank abhängig ist - und wie schnell die gute Stimmung an der Börse vorbei sein kann. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/dax-steigt-ueber-10-000-punkte-auf-neuen-rekordstand-a-972849.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/geldanlage-bei-niedrigzinsen-gold-immobilien-einen-jaguar-a-973671.html ""Wohin also jetzt mit den Ersparnissen?"" +++ Spekulationsblasen: Wirtschaftsweiser warnt vor Gefahren der Niedrigzinsen - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/ezb-wirtschaftsweiser-wieland-warnt-vor-spekulationsblasen-a-975400.html +++ Niedrigzinsen: Schäuble befürchtet Immobilienblase in Deutschland - http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zinsen-schaeuble-befuerchtet-immobilienblase-in-deutschland-a-976154.html
asset  bubble  Betongold  Beton  Gold  ZIRP  QE  OMT  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  asset  allocation  property  bubble  London  PIGS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity-trap  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  hunt  for  yield  New  Normal  financial  repression  2014  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  banking  union  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  macroprudential  policy  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  austerity  fiscal  policy  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  faultlines  imbalance  recovery  greatdepression  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Today's Good News From Japan Is Terrible - Bloomberg View
uroda is finding that his monetary largess isn't boosting credit creation as hoped. Inflation, yes, as Japan imports more energy with a weaker yen. But the kind of monetary multiplier effect the BOJ hoped to unleash by now remains elusive, as the experience of Mizuho Financial Group and Japan’s other two biggest banks demonstrate. All three are forecasting a drop in earnings for this year as loan growth loses momentum and returns from stock investments wane. Kuroda is a respected economist who's staked his entire legacy on ending Japan's deflation. What's more, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe isn't coming through with sweeping structural reforms to boost consumer demand and business confidence. However unfairly, that puts the onus on Kuroda. It also places Japan in uncharted territory. Will bond traders sit back passively if the BOJ adds lots more stimulus to the economy? It's impossible to tell. + http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/blog/abenomics-new-monetary-policy/
BOJ  QE  ZIRP  Japan  lostdecade  lost  decade  2014  deflationary  deflation  trust  trustagent  confidence  Kuroda  Put  Greenspan-Put  Greenspan  Put  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  complexity  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  Nikkei  JPY  faultlines  global  imbalances  Fed  Taper  Janet  Yellen  Abenomics  Shinzo  Abe  fiscal  stimulus  accommodative  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
British austerity is no model for the rest of the world - FT.com
the pace of fiscal contraction has slowed over the past two years. This means that the brake on growth caused by fiscal policy is becoming more attenuated. So the turnround in growth over the past 18 months is as much evidence against austerity as it is pro-austerity. Second, faced with the potential damage caused by the deficit reduction to demand and economic growth, the UK government has been forced to introduce a number of extraordinary measures to support lending. [...] It certainly should not, however, be seen as any kind of inspiration to other companies or countries. + http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10807988/Rapid-rate-rises-could-throw-UK-back-into-recession.html
Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  austerity  Mark  Carney  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  recovery  2014  GFC  zombie  consumer  Debt  Super  Cycle  private  sovereign  crisis  consumer  bubble  monetization  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  election  campaign  promises  general  election  2015  election2015  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  productivity  wage  stagnation  living  wage  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  financial  repression  New  Normal  structural  deficit  budget  deficit  jubilee  public  household  debtoverhang  liquidity-trap  economic  history  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  mortgage  market  housing  market  Supply  Supply  Shortfall  public  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  unconventional  monetary  policy  policy-makers  policy  makers  democracy  Politics  UK 
may 2014 by asterisk2a
Hedge Fund Boss: "We Are Witnessing Our Second Tech Bubble"
+ http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/27/magazine/if-a-bubble-bursts-in-palo-alto-does-it-make-a-sound.html "There are hundreds more examples of big companies spending eye-watering sums for acquisitions, firms going public at fat valuations, tech stocks reaching high highs and venture-capital firms tossing money at start-ups. That’s not to mention the cultural afterbirth of all that cash, from the medieval-themed weddings to the office ball pits. (If HBO sees fit to satirize your corner of the economy, things have probably gone a bit weird.) Meanwhile, the rest of the country slouches along, unemployment high, wages stagnant, credit tight. But Silicon Valley feels like a foam party." [...] “Valuations are at extreme levels because you cannot get a decent return on your money doing anything else,”
asset  bubble  Silicon  Valley  growth  round  late-stage  funding  Venture  Capital  Marc  Andreessen  IPO  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  QE  liquidity-trap  unintended  consequences  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  OMT  ECB  BOE  NIRP  deflationary  deflation  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  2014  Facebook  Airbnb  Dropbox  Box.com  California  San  Francisco  Los  Angeles  Palo  Alto  Fred  Wilson 
april 2014 by asterisk2a
Wie Europa Schulden loswerden kann - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[Rogoff & Reinhart advocating financial repression] [...] [Because Austerity didn't work.] Tatsächlich habe die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik - die Haushaltsdefizite senkt und Strukturreformen für mehr Wachstum durchführt - recht wenig getan, um den Schuldenberg wirklich zu verringern. Die Politik könnte die Last für die nächsten Jahre sogar verschlimmert haben, sagen viele Volkswirte. Die Sparpolitik hat das Wachstum überraschend stark beeinträchtigt. Während die Hinweise darauf, dass die Strukturreformen tatsächlich die Wirtschaft beflügeln, eher überschaubar ausfallen. Stattdessen sinken Einkommen, Gewinne und Steuereinnahmen, was die Schuldenlast immer schwerer erträglich macht.
debt  servicing  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  QE  KennethRogoff  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history  MarioDraghi  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  austerity  IMF  Japan  UK  USA  budget  deficit  France  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  New  Normal  PIMCO  Mohamed  El-Erian  debt  jubilee  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  private  debt  public  debt  household  debt  carmenreinhart  WallStreet  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  communication  babyboomers  haircut  PIGS  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richardkoo 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Mario Draghi und die Schuld an den niedrigen Zinsen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Manche nennen es Enteignung: Auch 2014 müssen sich viele deutsche Sparer mit Mini-Zinsen unterhalb der Inflationsrate begnügen. Schuld daran ist aus ihrer Sicht die Europäische Zentralbank. Deren Chef Mario Draghi wehrt sich - was taugen seine Argumente?
financial  repression  New  Normal  ZIRP  QE  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  complexity  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  Europe  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB hält Leitzins auf historischem Tiefstand - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Trotz der niedrigen Zinsen kommt das billige Geld derzeit nicht bei Unternehmen und Haushalten an. Vor allem in Südeuropa ist die Kreditvergabe weiter rückläufig. Um das zu ändern, wird im EZB-Rat über den Einsatz unkonventioneller Instrumente nachgedacht. Dazu gehören zum Beispiel negative Zinsen für Einlagen der Banken der EZB, aber auch neue langfristige Finanzspritzen.
liquidity-trap  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  system  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  LTRO  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  unintended  consequences  complexity  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIGS  recovery  austerity  liberal  economic  reform  trust  trustagent  confidence  policy  error  policy  folly  political  folly  political  error  economic  history  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  divergence  Super  Cycle  lostdecade  lostgeneration  stagflation  stagnation  secular  stagnation  Japan 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Worrying trends for the UK economy
In other words, the record amount of private debt, which has just reached £1.43 trillion, points to how borrowing has fuelled consumption. As we saw from the crash five years ago when debt was lower than now, debt-fuelled consumption isn't a sustainable or reliable source of growth. [...] Could the UK be facing what the US economist Larry Summers has described as America's "secular stagnation". It's a worry that the ageing population and a slower growth of the labour force mean a slower growing economy.
GFC  greatdepression  greatrecession  UK  2013  economic  history  recovery  austerity  deflationary  deflation  inflation  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  output-gap  productivity  larrysummers  stagflation  stagnation  secular  cycle  Japan  lostdecade  lostgeneration  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity-trap  spare  capacity 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Hugh Hendry Capitulates: "Can't Look At Himself In The Mirror" As He Throws In The Towel, Turns Bullish | Zero Hedge
First David Rosenberg, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Hugh Hendry: one after another the bears are throwing in the towel. As Investment Week reports, speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference this morning, Hugh Hendry said "he is no longer fighting the two-way feedback loop which is continuing to boost risk assets." The reflexive feedback loop envisioned by Hendry is the following and centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, "in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom. Hendry said this creates a "global supply glut", leading to falling US inflation expectations (as this supply far outweights US domestic demand) - which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Rinse. Repeat. [... DONT FIGHT THE FED ...] [...] You have got to be in things that are trending.
HughHendry  supply-demand  savings  glut  supply  glut  QE  ZIRP  deflation  deflationary  reflation  inflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  liquidity  liquidity-trap  WallStreet  asset  bubble  blackswan  fat  tail  Fed  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  trading  proptrading  hunt  for  yield  financial  repression  New  Normal 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
Bubbles, Regulation, and Secular Stagnation - NYTimes.com
In brief, there is a case for believing that the problem of maintaining adequate aggregate demand is going to be very persistent – that we may face something like the “secular stagnation” many economists feared after World War II. [...] The stability of prices and output masked an underlying unsustainable growth in leverage. [...] Our current episode of deleveraging will eventually end, which will shift the IS curve back to the right. But if we have effective financial regulation, as we should, it won’t shift all the way back to where it was before the crisis. Or to put it in plainer English, during the good old days demand was supported by an ever-growing burden of private debt, which we neither can nor should expect to resume; as a result, demand is going to be lower even once the crisis fades. [...] our current situation may well go on much longer than anyone currently imagines.
student  loan  debt  lobby  deregulation  monetary  policy  lobbyist  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  reflation  dual  mandate  fiscal  stimulus  Lobbying  BOE  BOJ  macroeconomics  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  trap  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  bubble  political  error  paulkrugman  austerity  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  nominal  GDP  targeting  dis-inflation  deleveraging  regulation  economics  public  debt  secular  stagnation  inflation  private  debt  balance  sheet  recession  mandate  debt  jubilee  GFC  complexity  excess  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  consumer  debt  liquidity-trap  political  folly  WWII  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  error  regulators  debtoverhang  Wicksellian  natural  interest  rate  NIRP  Fed  microeconomics  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  Great  Moderation  leverage  stagnation  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  ZIRP  USA  household  debt  fiscal  theory  Japan  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Bubbles, Regulation, and Secular Stagnation - NYTimes.com
Paul Krugman does a great, simple job of explaining how the US economy is in a liquidity trap and the difficulty of pulling it out. As usual, his answer is more debt and higher inflation but he makes some good points along the way.
liquidity-trap  economic  history 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Five Years After Lehman, BIS Ex-Chief Economist Warns "It's Worse This Time" | Zero Hedge
The share of "leveraged loans" or extreme forms of credit risk, used by the poorest corporate borrowers, has soared to an all-time high of 45% - 10 percentage points higher than at the peak of the crisis in 2007. + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/record-high-grade-leverage-means-pik-toggle-lbo-debt-back-and-worse-ever // The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-23/bank-international-settlements-warns-monetary-kool-aid-party-over ""central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery... cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html
unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  ope  reflation  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  BOJ  LBO  balancesheet  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  2013  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  political  error  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  centralbanks  liberal  economic  reform  faultlines  GFC  monetary  theory  exuberance  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  stimulus  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  liquidity-trap  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  benbernanke  bank  crisis  Abenomics  rebalancing  China  greatrecession  policy  error  productivity  LTRO  NIRP  OMT  Fed  communication  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  leverage  KennethRogoff  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  BIS  POMO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Bank of England must limit house price booms, says Rics
The Bank said it was being vigilant. - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-13/uk-realtors-ask-central-bank-halt-housing-bubble // "The Bank of England now has the ability to take the froth out of future housing market booms, without having to resort to interest rate increases," is the way the UK's realtor association explains their demand that the BoE limit national house price growth to 5% a year. While they would benefit from short-term gains, it seems the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) sees the dangers of another unsustainable housing boom outweigh them.
monetary  policy  Politics  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  davidcameron  BOE  political  folly  policy  error  policy  folly  debtoverhang  QE  NIRP  2013  communication  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  property  bubble  UK  monetisation  bubble  political  error  sovereign  crisis  ZIRP  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  expectation  subsidies  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  monetization  GeorgeOsborne  subsidizing  balance  sheet  recession 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes - Businessweek
‘Economists in Jackson Hole Say QE Less Potent Than Fed Believes’ – Bloomberg This is some great Monday morning quarterbacking from the economists in academia. The wonks have now decided, with the Fed balance sheet at $3.65 trillion and nearly at its peak that maybe this wasn’t such a great idea.
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  currency  war  complexity  asset  bubble  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  reflation  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  ECB  monetary  system  benbernanke  debtoverhang  QE  NIRP  Fed  financial  repression  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  fiscal  policy  stagflation  UK  devaluation  creditcrunch  bubble  structural  imbalance  sovereign  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Taper  deleveraging  Richardkoo  faultlines  balance  sheet  recession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Zinstief kostet deutsche Sparer laut neuer Postbank-Studie Milliarden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die extrem niedrigen Zinsen in Europa kosten deutsche Sparer offenbar Milliarden: Nach Berechnungen der Postbank verlieren die Sparvermögen bei Banken in Deutschland allein in diesem Jahr real rund 14 Milliarden Euro an Wert, wie die "Bild"-Zeitung unter Berufung auf die Studie berichtet.
monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  babyboomers  liquidity-trap  BOE  banking  crisis  ECB  BOJ  monetary  system  bank  crisis  lostdecade  debtoverhang  NIRP  2013  Fed  lostgeneration  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  centralbanks  balance  sheet  recession 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Ökonomen starten Aufruf zur Unterstützung der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Das sehen allerdings nicht alle Ökonomen so. Ifo-Präsident Sinn jedenfalls reagierte verhalten auf den Aufruf: "Niemand bestreitet, dass sich die Kapitalmärkte beruhigen lassen, wenn man den Käufern der südlichen Staatspapiere mit Hilfe des OMT kostenlosen Versicherungsschutz anbietet", sagte er SPIEGEL ONLINE. Eine solche Lösung sei zwar "für Schuldner und Gläubiger gleichermaßen attraktiv", allerdings nicht für die Steuerzahler der bislang "noch gesunden Länder Europas". Diese müssten am Ende die Verluste der EZB tragen.
monetary  policy  complexity  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  deflation  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  policy  error  lostdecade  policy  folly  QE  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  PIGS  debt  monetisation  political  error  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  inflation  debt  monetization 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What Is A "Liquidity Trap" And Why Is Bernanke Caught In It? | Zero Hedge
"The real concern for investors, and individuals, is the actual economy. We are likely experiencing more than just a 'soft patch' currently despite the mainstream analysts' rhetoric to the contrary. There is clearly something amiss within the economic landscape and the ongoing decline of inflationary pressures longer term is likely telling us just that. The big question for the Fed is how to get themselves out of the 'liquidity trap' they have gotten themselves into without cratering the economy, and the financial markets, in the process. As we said recently this is the same question that Japan is trying to figure out as well." >> Tim Geithner once said in an agressive clear tone on that question 'the US is not Japan.'
monetary  policy  complexity  asset  bubble  unintended  consequences  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  ECB  deflation  BOJ  Structural  Impediments  lostdecade  QE  debtoverhang  NIRP  lostgeneration  economic  history  fiscal  policy  Debt  Super  Cycle  imbalance  austerity  ZIRP  USA  timgeithner  deleveraging  long-term  unemployment  deflationary  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Breakingviews: Don't sink the pound, Governor Carney! - YouTube
UK inflation rises less than expected in June, but still jumps to its highest level in over a year. With prices rising faster than wages, the new BoE Governor Mark Carney mustn't push down the pound.
currency  debasement  monetary  policy  consumer  squeeze  currency  war  Mark  Carney  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  BOE  deflation  greatrecession  QE  NIRP  2013  UK  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  ZIRP  greatdepression  sticky  wages  zombie  consumer  wage  inflation  inflation  GeorgeOsborne 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Zinspolitik der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aber am Ende ist das alles Haarspalterei. Es läuft auf dasselbe Ergebnis hinaus: Die Zinsen werden lange bei null bleiben, wahrscheinlich über mehrere Jahre. Solange es keine Anzeichen für eine dauerhaft steigende Inflation gibt - und die wird es auf absehbare Zeit nicht geben - solange wird sich dieser Ausblick nicht ändern. [...] Es besteht ein klarer Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge und den Preisen für Wertpapiere. [...] Es besteht die akute Gefahr, dass ähnlich wie in Japan vor zwanzig Jahren die Geldpolitik nicht greift, solange der Bankensektor so krank ist.
Greece  monetary  policy  JörgAsmussen  bond  bubble  incentive  asset  bubble  Europe  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sentiment  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  dis-inflation  deleveraging  asset  allocation  inflation  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Spain  GFC  capital  allocation  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  banking  union  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  communication  Fed  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Politik der niedrigen Zinsen: Nordstaaten verhinderten Zinssenkung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Geldpolitiker der Nordländer in der EU beharren auf ihrer Linie: Gemeinsam verhinderten Bundesbank-Präsident Weidmann und seine Kollegen nach SPIEGEL-Informationen eine weitere Leitzinssenkung der EZB. [...] Doch sieben Ratsmitglieder, vor allem aus den Nordstaaten, argumentierten heftig dagegen. Darunter waren nicht nur der deutsche Bundesbank-Chef Jens Weidmann und der Niederländer Klaas Knot, sondern auch das deutsche Mitglied des geschäftsführenden Direktoriums, Jörg Asmussen.
QE  NIRP  JörgAsmussen  Europe  creditcrunch  M3  Bundesbank  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann  negative  real  interest  rate  banking  crisis  ECB  bank  crisis  creditcrisis 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2013/speech670.pdf
UK’s King Last Speech: UK needs more Bank of England stimulus as recovery is not assured. >> UK's future still uncertain. Reflective in Cable (GBPUSD). While others do much better. >> "Despite this encouraging picture, growth is not yet strong enough to reduce the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. Nor is recovery at an adequate rate fully assured. The weakness of the euro area and the problems of the UK banking system continue to act as a drag on growth. So the need to support the recovery remains. [...] unemployment remains unnecessarily high. [...] Both nominal and real interest rates are at unsustainably low levels. There is an understandable yearning for a return to normality [...] Monetary policy cannot provide the answer. [... Banking > ...] It is insufficient capital that restricts lending [+ holding not enough liquid assets]. And, without a resilient banking system, it will be difficult to sustain a recovery."
unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  reflation  zombie  banks  capital  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  Discount  Window  Facility  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  liquidity  QE  price  stability  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  devaluation  political  error  imbalance  creditcrunch  Recapitalization  trustagent  hunt  for  yield  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  global  imbalances  inflation  debt  monetization  governance  balance  sheet  recession  Leverage  GFC  complexity  output-gap  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  too  big  to  jail  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  policy  error  debtoverhang  Special  Scheme  NIRP  trust  economic  history  confidence  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  MervynKing  toobigtofail  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Pläne für eine Bankenunion - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die geplante Bankenunion kommt zu spät für die gegenwärtige Krise - denn ohne eine Änderung der EU-Verträge wird sie nicht funktionieren. Der Euro-Zone droht ein Jahrzehnt der Stagnation, weil es für Unternehmen in Südeuropa kaum noch Kredite gibt.
Politics  GFC  Europe  European  Commission  zombie  banks  recapitalisation  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  europeanunion  Troika  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  zombie  corporations  political  folly  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly  lostgeneration  economic  history  financial  repression  creditcrunch  political  error  sovereign  debt  crisis  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  austerity  USA  deleveraging  toobigtofail  systemicrisk  Richardkoo  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB's Draghi 'ready to act if needed'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvHvyvPd0PU + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/ezb-senkt-leitzins-auf-rekordtief-von-0-5-prozent-a-897701.html "Die Währungshüter hoffen, dass die Finanzbranche das billige Geld in Form von Krediten an Unternehmen und Verbraucher weiterreichen wird." + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-senkt-leitzins-draghis-gefaehrlicher-rettungsversuch-a-897771.html ... >> After the GFC, banks should have been privatised (creditors to take haircuts) in 2010/11, those who were not banks (ie lending), but mere zombie banks. Europe is doing the same mistake as Japan. >> see Apple example - unintended consequences. Microsoft too.
monetary  policy  financialcrisis  GFC  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  New  Normal  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  folly  QE  debtoverhang  communication  economic  history  financial  repression  Debt  Super  Cycle  NPL  PIGS  bubble  error  creditcrunch  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Japan  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Reinhart, Rogoff... and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs
http://www.peri.umass.edu/236/hash/31e2ff374b6377b2ddec04deaa6388b1/publication/566/ "not every economy is same, times are always different." >> Reply by Rogoff & Reinhart: 'We were only arguing association, not causality.' [...] Discovering a spreadsheet error was never going to end the debate over austerity - and nor should it, according to Megan McArdle, special correspondent for Newsweek and The Daily Beast. >> http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/panne-mit-excel-tabelle-rogoff-und-reinhart-haben-sich-verrechnet-a-894893.html "Olivier Blanchard (IMF) gestand ein die negativen Effekte der Sparpolitik auf das Wachstum unterschätzt wurden." >> Updated paper from Rogoff & Reinhart http://www.nber.org/papers/w18015 >> http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/holy-coding-error-batman/ http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/16/unemployment-reinhart-rogoff-arithmetic-cause
academics  complexity  sociology  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  academia  science  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  political  folly  bank  crisis  macroeconomics  lostdecade  policy  folly  macroeconomic  policy  debtoverhang  lostgeneration  economic  history  philosophy  fiscal  policy  social  science  confidence  KennethRogoff  error  trustagent  paulkrugman  austerity  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  IWF  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Bill Gross' World View In Four Words | Zero Hedge
Gross: The world looks 4 a new Keynes but w/ hi deficits & 0% rates there is only a long tough slog ahead @ best & the unimaginable @ worst. >> "Tough Slog" or "The Unimaginable"
PIMCO  debtoverhang  QE  2013  trust  GFC  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  ZIRP  austerity  liquidity-trap  greatdepression  deleveraging  Bill  Gross  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - George Osborne warned by MPs over mortgage guarantee risks
Mr Osborne has said the housing market is still not functioning properly after the 2008 financial crisis, with the number of purchases by first-time buyers down 40% in the past five years. [...] >> haven't they learned anything? subprime and house price bubble created itself by state guarantees introduced by gwbush to push home owner ship. - history doesn't repeat, but rhymes - market prices though information. distortion by brining in more normally ineligible buyers. - Osborne tackling an effect of income stagnation and excessive inflation + zombie consumers and zombie banks. First-time buyers unable to put up deposit. >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-20/uk-discloses-home-purchase-subsidy-part-its-latest-2013-budget
microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  complexity  asset  bubble  Mark  Carney  monetary  theory  reflation  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  liquidity-trap  distortion  davidcameron  BOE  subprime  political  folly  policy  folly  QE  2013  Plan  B  short-term  thinking  microeconomics  disequilibrium  economic  history  gwbush  mortgage  fraud  UK  error  equilibrium  fanniemae  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  austerity  USA  housing  bubble  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  MervynKing  subsidies  freddiemac  economics  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  GeorgeOsborne  subsidizing 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Chart Making The Fed Nervous | Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/fed-governor-stein-warns-when-tbtf-bank-fails-depositors-will-be-cyprused "all too clear that part of the Dodd-Frank resolution authority guidelines, a bailout is no longer an option." Cyprus was the first, and will not be the last incident of bail-in solution for TBTF >> this whole this is a replay of Japan 90s and 2000s
monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  Cyprus  deposit  levy  policy  folly  QE  SIFI  PIGS  UK  Error  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  inflation  expectation  deleveraging  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  monetary  theory  output-gap  haircut  derivatives  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  Insured  Bank  Deposits  political  folly  crisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  debtoverhang  FDIC  LTRO  OMT  Fed  trust  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  toobigtofail  POMO  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
El-Erian's Summary: "Virtually Every Market Is Trading At Very Artificial Levels" | Zero Hedge
http://live.wsj.com/public/page/embed-85F75B51_F954_46E1_861D_EC47CC278296.html >> "if these levels aren’t validated by the fundamentals, then investors will get hurt." WORTH LISTENING EVERY MINUTE. > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/not-what-low-volatility-environment-looks > http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/margin-clerks-were-working " Long experience in the markets will inform you that this kind of massive sell-off is indicative of someone or perhaps a numbers of someones with serious problems. " [...] The markets can turn on a dime and the move can be severe and painful. [...] The cash provided by the Central Banks has been leveraged to the nines as indicated by the severity of the sell-off in both gold and equities. > Europe lost out on design and execution to overcome crisis. > Rating Agencies have monopoly. With monopoly comes problems. > Trust, but verify.
unemployment  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  BOJ  Gold  Structural  Impediments  Equity  QE  2013  UK  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  imbalance  debt  bubble  Error  trustagent  austerity  bubble  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  ratingagencies  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  PIMCO  Politics  GFC  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  ECB  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  political  folly  income  growth  China  greatrecession  uncertainty  lostdecade  monopoly  debtoverhang  Fed  trust  economic  history  financial  repression  bubbles  income-growth  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Former ECB Board Member Bini Smaghi Says Draghi Will Weaken Euro - Bloomberg
ECB Struggles The Frankfurt-based ECB is struggling to find new ways to help the 17-nation euro economy shake off its second recession in four years. While Draghi signalled this month that policy makers are considering cutting interest rates further, he said they haven’t yet come up with a plan to get banks lending to small and medium-sized businesses -- something the ECB has long identified as an area of economic weakness. Bini Smaghi said there’s no point in the ECB engaging in QE like the Fed, as that would involve it buying the sovereign bonds of countries like Germany, which already have record-low borrowing costs.
double-dip  debtoverhang  monetary  policy  2013  trust  economic  history  monetary  theory  Europe  MarioDraghi  confidence  structural  imbalance  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  trustagent  liquidity-trap  PIIGS  banking  crisis  greatdepression  ECB  deleveraging  bank  crisis  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Bank Of Japan May Buy Derivatives Next | Zero Hedge
Because having legal authority to buy corporate bonds, ETFs and REITs, in addition to everything else the Fed now buys, is apparently not enough to crush, mangle and suicide its currency, the BOJ is now considering adding yet another "asset" to its cocktail of eligible securities for purchase: those which Buffett once declared weapons of mass financial destruction - derivatives.
currency  debasement  QE  monetary  policy  2013  fiat  currency  economic  history  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  derivatives  liquidity-trap  ZIRP  deflation  BOJ  currency-war  abenomics  inflation  lostdecade  Japan 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
The IMF on the Austerity Trap - NYTimes.com
liquidity-trap = monetray policy can not buffer economic, fiscal (ie austerity) shock to the extent it did when rates were lowered from initial rate. the margin of monetary stability improvement vs lower rates/QE/negative interest rates becomes less and less to the point of long-term consequences (ie bubbles elsewhere in a global monetary world, as there are multiple equilibria of asset classes that get whacked (distorted) when one or two players in the global multiple fiat currency world take out the atomic bomb and or untested weapons of monetary policy/theory
QE  2013  multiplier-effect  Politics  creditrating  trust  economic  history  multiple  equilibria  UK  confidence  structural  imbalance  trustagent  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  paulkrugman  austerity  global  imbalances  ratingagencies  GeorgeOsborne  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Stephen Roach On Why Abe's Aggression Won't Save Japan //via ZeroHedge
The politicization of central banking continues unabated.

[...] [... GFC USA Aftermath ...]

When the bubbles burst, households understandably became fixated on balance-sheet repair – namely, paying down debt and rebuilding personal savings, rather than resuming excessive spending habits.

[...]

US consumers have pulled back as never before. In the 19 quarters since the start of 2008, annualized growth of inflation-adjusted consumer spending has averaged just 0.7% – almost three percentage points below the 3.6% trend increases recorded in the 11 years ending in 2006.

[...]

Not only is QE’s ability to jumpstart crisis-torn, balance-sheet-constrained economies limited; it also runs the important risk of blurring the distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. Central banks that buy sovereign debt issued by fiscal authorities offset market-imposed discipline on borrowing costs, effectively subsidizing public-sector profligacy.
UK  stephenroach  liquidity-trap  currency-war  currency  debasement  banking  crisis  debtoverhang  France  structural  imbalance  status  quo  Politics  liberal  economic  reform  PIIGS  Europe  savings  glut  zombie  consumer  greatrecession  GFC  Richardkoo  zombie  banks  Japan  lostgeneration  lostdecade  2013  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  debt  monetisation  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  2012  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  ECB  Fed  USA  balance  sheet  recession  consumption  consumer 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Rumor NY consulting shop says ECB could go to negative deposit rates in September | ForexLive
One of the catalysts for the latest move lower, it would appear.
Since the ECB cut the deposit rate to zero last week, deposits at the ECB fallen sharply. Rather than find their way into productive use, banks have been buying short-term government debt pushing rates in Germany and Holland below zero and to 0.03% in Finland.

***

- NIRP seems not to be the incentive to lend to real economy (lending, debt roll-over) or between each other ... easing the interbank credit crunch.
- Q for banks remain about outlook of Europe, and bc it is on the downside, they don't wanna do anything. its damage control of its balance sheet (Zombi banks, Zombi companies, NPL)
- Liquidity seems not the solution to structural problems (ie bank and sovereign linkage, competitiveness, EU wide divergence in local policies like labour, taxation and laws)
- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/clarifying-entirely-unremarkable-shift-ecb-deposits
Politics  France  Germany  sarkozy  FrancoisHollande  angelamerkel  greatrecession  GFC  liquidity-trap  liquidation  LTRO  QE  2012  PIIGS  Europe  zombie  banks  NPL  creditcrunch  confidence  trustagent  trust  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  BIS  ECB  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  policy  error  inflation  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Dallas Fed's Fisher "Perplexed" By Wall Street "Fetish" With QE3 And Disgusted With The Addiction To "Monetary Morphine" | ZeroHedge
complaining about, get this, Wall Street's "continued preoccupation, bordering upon fetish" with QE3. The irony continues: "Trillions of dollars are lying fallow, not being employed in the real economy. Yet financial market operators keep looking and hoping for more. Why? I think it may be because they have become hooked on the monetary morphine we provided when we performed massive reconstructive surgery, rescuing the economy from the Financial Panic of 2008–09, and then kept the medication in the financial bloodstream to ensure recovery....I believe adding to the accommodative doses we have applied rather than beginning to wean the patient might be the equivalent of medical malpractice."

- ECB's Nowotny did sound the alarmbells too two weeks ago
addiction  quantitative-easing  Fed  BOE  ECB  greatrecession  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  liquidity-trap  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  LTRO  QE  ZIRP 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
The ECB's LTRO and the Fed's testimony: How to read a central bank | The Economist
First, the European Central Bank conducted its second three-year Long Term Refinancing Operation. (You can read my colleague’s take here.) Second, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve testified to the House Financial Services Committee, and hinted that more quantitative easing - the purchase of bonds by printing money - was a bit less likely. He called the recovery "uneven and modest by historical standards" but that was better than "frustratingly slow,” the description he used at the start of this month.

> On little change in the wording of the testimony set of a good slide in Gold and EUR, and a good rise in USD. One little change.
reflation  2012  benbernake  ZIRP  quantitative-easing  liquidity-trap  LTRO  QE  Fed  ECB 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Bill Gross On Minsky's Take Of The Liquidity Trap: From "Hedge" To "Securitised" To "Ponzi" | ZeroHedge
"What incentive does a US bank have to extend maturity to a two- or three-year term when Treasury rates at that level of the curve are below the 25 basis points available to them overnight from the Fed? What incentive does Pimco or banks have to buy five-year Treasuries at 75bp when the maximum upside capital gain is two per cent of par and the downside substantially more?" In other words, Pimco is finally grasping just how ZIRP is punking it and its clients. It also means that very soon all the maturity, and soon, credit risk of the world will be on the shoulders of the Fed, which in turn labor under a false economic paradigm. And one wonders why nobody has any faith left in these here "capital markets"...

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ad537e88-4ccd-11e1-8741-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1lbUuD6rB
PIMCO  economics  economic-thought  liquidity-trap  monetary  policy  Fed  2012  ZIRP 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Repairing the Global Plumbing - Mohamed A. El-Erian - Project Syndicate
Unfortunately, the economic outcomes have come nowhere close to matching the intensity of these efforts. Effectively, the central banks have been unconventional bridges to nowhere, owing mainly to their imperfect tools and other government agencies’ inability or unwillingness to act. At some point – and we are nearing it – bridges to nowhere become a standalone risk: they can topple over.
politics  folly  growth  Portugal  Greece  haircut  UK  USA  Europe  crisis  debt  sovereign  GFC  2012  recession  balancesheet  richardkoo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  LTRO  BOE  Fed  ECB  policy  fiscal  monetary 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
ECB's Balance Sheet Now Far Bigger Than Fed's, More Levered Than Lehman, PIIGS Exposure Up 50% In 6 Months | ZeroHedge
Bloodmberg chart of the day shows, the ECB's balance sheet is not only far greater than the Fed, at $3.2 trillion compared to $2.9 trillion for Ben Bernanke, but at 30x leverage, has the same risk as Lehman did at its peak.

“The ECB is providing liquidity and confidence to the banking system, yet all the while its own leverage and balance sheet size is hitting new highs. It seems likely that the market will begin to watch the rising leverage with interest and growing concern."

"Through its government bond buying and liquidity provision to banks, we estimate that the ECB’s exposure to weaker eurozone economies has now reached €705bn, up from €444bn in early summer – an increase of over 50% in only six months, raising fresh questions about its credibility, independence and possible losses it may face in the case of future sovereign defaults."
PIIGS  solvency  Europe  creditcrunch  liquidity-trap  liquidity  QE  SMP  leverage  2011  balancesheet  Fed  ECB 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Bernanke Turns Timid in Krugmans View - Bloomberg
“I think Bernanke’s definition of the long run is ‘after all this nasty stuff is behind us’” Krugman said in an e-mailed response to questions. “And similarly for Fed policy. So the speech was basically saying that in the long run we don’t matter, and in the short run, which could be pretty long, not our problem.”On his New York Times blog after the speech, Krugman quoted John Maynard Keynes: “This long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.”
JacksonHole  2011  greatrecession  recovery  Fed  monetary  fiscal  policy  USA  Japan  lostdecade  paulkrugman  QE  stimulus  reform  ZIRP  history  liquidity-trap  balancesheet  recession  richardkoo  debtoverhang  debt  sovereign  crisis 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Will Latest Market, Credit Woes Add Up to a 'Global Recession'? - YouTube
- downgrade in confidence, stat gov is not able to prop up economy if needed- downgrade in confidence, after gov debt ceiling debate ended with austerity shaped bill (compromise)- downgrade in confidence, after Obama could not show leadership in debate and give boundaries
- government, and other institutions (Fed, SEC, Banks, Individual) failed
- growth panic
- no leadership on both sides of the Atlantic
- slow growth below long-term average guaranteed in developed markets whose bubbles burst 
- wrong medicine currently administered 
- currently, QE, monetization does not lead into healthier moneysupply in UK, USA, EU. bc of debt overhang and deleveraging process - which will still take years.
KennethRogoff  GFC  paulkrugman  2011  greatrecession  barackobama  presidency  monetary  fiscal  policy  politics  mistake  folly  sovereign  debt  ceiling  debtceiling  crisis  August  PIIGS  Fed  ECB  economy  recovery  GDP  growth  QE  QE3  debtoverhang  inflation  deflation  deleveraging  Japan  lostdecade  history  lesson  liquidity-trap  greatdepression  austerity  unemployment  output-gap  moneysupply  monetization  BOE  UK  europe  USA 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
BIS: interest rates too low | City A.M.
INTEREST rates are too low in developed economies, risking a dangerous price instability and market distortions, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) declared yesterday.

 abnormally low rates “risk creating serious financial distortions, misallocations of resources and delay in the necessary de-leveraging” in advanced countries.
Unusually, BIS singles out the Bank og England for its loose monetary policy in the face of inflation that is more than double its two per cent target.
Bank of England: “One wonders how long its current policy can be sustained.” The report shows that combined with interest rates of 0.5 per cent, Britain has a negative real interest rate of minus four per cent, lower than that of the US, the Eurozone and Japan.
the Bank of England that its lack of control over commodity prices, which are driving inflation, means that raising rates won’t help.
“extraordinarily loose monetary policy” is boosting commodity prices because a “search for yield”
ZIRP  unintended  consequences  bubble  BOE  BOJ  Fed  ECB  recovery  monetary  policy  2011  greatrecession  creditcrunch  liquidity-trap  liquidity  reflation  reflate  balancesheet  recession  commodities 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Schwarzman Says Cheap Financing Is Pushing Up Prices of Buyouts - Bloomberg
“We’ve seen prices higher than we expected as a result of very low levels of interest rates,” he said. “The Fed has created a lot of liquidity.”
Fed  2011  monetary  policy  Blackstone  liquidity  liquidity-trap  privateequity  account  LBO  USA  Dollar 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Fed has provided all the liquidity U.S. needs: Fisher | Reuters
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has provided the economy all the liquidity it needs, "and then some," Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said on Tuesday.

- but liquidity does not solve solvency issues (pay your debt down, grow out of your debt burden)

- applies to all economic entities; countries, municipalities, cities, companies, each person.
greatrecession  Fed  liquidity  liquidity-trap  2008  QE  ZIRP  insolvent  insolvency  economics  economy 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Route to Recovery a Long, Global March at SmartMoney.com
"The stock market is divorced from economic reality," a bearish David Rosenberg reminded readers in an Oct. 13 report. To Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, the parade of positive reports for the key third-quarter earnings season is a matter of nominal success, not a sign of recovery.
.
Barry Knapp, U.S. strategist at Barclays Capital, said earnings will look good, but only because government stimulus money is fueling a rally.
.
"While Fed-supplied liquidity remains the most important determinant of equity prices, in our view, we know that investors will spend the next three weeks immersed in earnings season and many will be looking for top-line revenue growth," he wrote Wednesday. "We believe that top-line growth will be hard to come by at the market level. However, we should see some evidence of revenue generation in the early-cycle sectors, financials and consumer discretionary, though we expect the growth to be slow over the next four quarters."
stockmarket  rally  2009  recession  recovery  USA  liquidity  excess  liquidity-trap  monetary  fiscal  policy  dollar  currency  weakness 
october 2009 by asterisk2a
FT.com | Economists' Forum | Zero interest rate policy: Treatment may be as expensive as the crisis
What are the prospects of exiting ZIRP? The Fed has recognised the need to exit ZIRP. In a recent speech, Kevin Warsh, governor of the Federal Reserve System said: “In my view, if policymakers insist on waiting until the level of real activity has plainly and substantially returned to normal - and the economy has returned to self-sustaining trend growth - they will almost certainly have waited too long. A complication is the large volume of banking system reserves created by the non-traditional policy responses. There is a risk, of much debated magnitude, that the unusually high level of reserves, along with substantial liquid assets of the banking system, could fuel an unanticipated, excessive surge in lending.”

We got into the current crisis because national policies have externalities that do not add up to a collective global good. The world needs to exit ZIRP together, because first movers are likely to pay higher costs in terms of large capital flows. ZIRP liquidity trap.
liquidity-trap  japan  lostdecade  USA  2009  fed  ECB  uk  BOE  interestrate  monetary  policy  ZIRP  zero-interest-rate-policy 
october 2009 by asterisk2a
RGE - The Great Preventer
He and the Fed made three major mistakes when the subprime mortgage crisis began. First, he kept arguing that the housing recession would bottom out soon (it has not bottomed out even three years later). Second, he argued that the subprime problem was a contained problem when in reality it was a symptom of the biggest leverage and credit bubble in American history. Third, he argued that the collapse in the housing market would not lead to a recession, even though about one-third of jobs created in the latest economic recovery were directly or indirectly related to housing. Mr. Bernanke’s analysis was mistaken in several other important ways. He argued that monetary policy should not be used to control asset bubbles. He attributed the large United States current account deficits to a savings glut in China and emerging markets, understating the role that excessive fiscal deficits and debt accumulation by American households and the financial system played.
.
NourielRoubini  benbernanke  alangreenspan  recession  fed  monetary  policy  moralhazard  liquidity  liquidity-trap  inflation  dollar  bubble 
august 2009 by asterisk2a

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