asterisk2a + liberal + consequences   13

China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan Exports Its Way to Irrelevance - Bloomberg View
[ Politicians as always will react with reactionary unimaginative policy, competing for the same pie. instead of enabling, supporting new pies to be created. ] But Abe needs to recognize, as China already has, that this is only the latest sign of a broader reality: Asia's old export model of economic growth no longer works. [...] All the stimulus BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda can muster won't change the worsening trajectory of the region's most-populous nation. That's why Abe needs to take a page from Beijing and focus more on creating new industries at home. [ the base of home grown new market/category/vertical also includes sound middle class to buy those products. demand at home. social safety net (security). and less inequality. progressive taxation. fight tax evasion/avoidance, monopoles, monopsonies, bribery, corruption. and politicians making policy for lobby. ]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
WikiLeaks - Espionnage Élysée - Angela Merkel on Greece and Europe (actions speak louder than words).
Earlier reporting reveals that following talks last week in Berlin with Merkel, Hollande complained that nothing of substance was achieved; it was purely for show. Hollande had found the chancellor fixated on the Fiscal Pact and above all on Greece, on which he claimed she had given up and was unwilling to budge. // Angela (Germany) put(s) national and personal political interests first second third and last .... // symptoms of our time, even politicians jump on "everybody for himself" //
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB cuts rates and launches stimulus programme
1-Day Before: http://youtu.be/_6D_xVeoIXs "ECB faces crunch on deflation threat" +++ The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures. The ECB had earlier cut its rate from 0.25% to 0.15% in June, and also became the first major central bank to introduce negative interest rates. It will also launch an asset purchase programme, which will buy debt products from banks. It is hoped this move will add liquidity to the financial system and revive lending. [...] "[A] last roll of the dice". "The ECB has now almost exhausted its ammunition for preventing the Eurozone sliding into a devastating deflationary, contractionary spiral," +++ Analysis: http://youtu.be/IErml4SmKmE "European banks – Work those ABS" +++ bit.ly/1A6pmLU - France and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity "Europe ... is threatened with lasting weak growth should the deficit rules continue to be strictly interpreted. [ BuBa demands higher wages, ECB fiscal stimulus ]."
ABS  OMT  LTRO  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  PIGS  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  IMF  Germany  BuBa  deflation  deflationary  communication  zombie  banks  confidence  trustagent  trust  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  policy  QE  bond  bubble  deleveraging  lost  decade  lost  generation  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  economic  history  debtoverhang  NPL  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  riskaversion  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  secular  stagnation  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  Career  Politicians  inflation  expectation  stagnation  Betongold  Beton  Gold  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  France  liberal  economic  reform  Stability  Pact  Italy  academics  academia  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  wage  growth  wage  inflation  fiscal  stimulus  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Sick  Man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  investment  business  investment  labor  market  reform  recovery 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
The Rise Of Europe's Religious Right
For the most part, though, issues dear to social conservatives were a side issue in elections driven heavily by economic frustration. [...] The suddenness with which social conservatives became a force in Brussels has many progressives speculating that they are the creations of American social conservatives seeking to “export the culture wars.” [...] Today, American ties seem much more about a shared vision to build a global conservative movement rather than leaning on stronger and wealthier U.S. partners for support. // http://www.salon.com/2014/02/28/the_dying_right_why_christian_fundamentalists_are_in_panic_mode_partner/ || Pro Progressive - the hard things are hard bc they are worth doing it. It's easy to turn ones back. But its hard to hold your face into the storm that is brewing. Holding onto status quo is not worth the struggle, it is a futile short-term view - as the status quo is not sustainable.
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july 2014 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
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december 2013 by asterisk2a
EZB hält Leitzins auf historischem Tiefstand - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Trotz der niedrigen Zinsen kommt das billige Geld derzeit nicht bei Unternehmen und Haushalten an. Vor allem in Südeuropa ist die Kreditvergabe weiter rückläufig. Um das zu ändern, wird im EZB-Rat über den Einsatz unkonventioneller Instrumente nachgedacht. Dazu gehören zum Beispiel negative Zinsen für Einlagen der Banken der EZB, aber auch neue langfristige Finanzspritzen.
liquidity-trap  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  system  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  LTRO  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  unintended  consequences  complexity  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIGS  recovery  austerity  liberal  economic  reform  trust  trustagent  confidence  policy  error  policy  folly  political  folly  political  error  economic  history  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  divergence  Super  Cycle  lostdecade  lostgeneration  stagflation  stagnation  secular  stagnation  Japan 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Five Years After Lehman, BIS Ex-Chief Economist Warns "It's Worse This Time" | Zero Hedge
The share of "leveraged loans" or extreme forms of credit risk, used by the poorest corporate borrowers, has soared to an all-time high of 45% - 10 percentage points higher than at the peak of the crisis in 2007. + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/record-high-grade-leverage-means-pik-toggle-lbo-debt-back-and-worse-ever // The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-23/bank-international-settlements-warns-monetary-kool-aid-party-over ""central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery... cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html
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september 2013 by asterisk2a
Economic policy: Paved with good intentions | The Economist
Although the debate [austerity] relates to the UK, I think it has a much wider resonance. And indeed, to a student of history, it has fascinating parallels; economic policy-making was rethought in the mid-1970s, but the same debates are popping up again. [...] Margaret Thatcher on ZIRP & QE "Let us print the money instead. Because what that is saying is let us quietly steal a cerain amount from every pound saved in building societies, in national savings, from every person who has been thrifty." [...] [ZIRP & QE is no free lunch - it has consequences, known and unknown, unintended.]
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may 2013 by asterisk2a
Stephen Roach On Why Abe's Aggression Won't Save Japan //via ZeroHedge
The politicization of central banking continues unabated.

[...] [... GFC USA Aftermath ...]

When the bubbles burst, households understandably became fixated on balance-sheet repair – namely, paying down debt and rebuilding personal savings, rather than resuming excessive spending habits.

[...]

US consumers have pulled back as never before. In the 19 quarters since the start of 2008, annualized growth of inflation-adjusted consumer spending has averaged just 0.7% – almost three percentage points below the 3.6% trend increases recorded in the 11 years ending in 2006.

[...]

Not only is QE’s ability to jumpstart crisis-torn, balance-sheet-constrained economies limited; it also runs the important risk of blurring the distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. Central banks that buy sovereign debt issued by fiscal authorities offset market-imposed discipline on borrowing costs, effectively subsidizing public-sector profligacy.
UK  stephenroach  liquidity-trap  currency-war  currency  debasement  banking  crisis  debtoverhang  France  structural  imbalance  status  quo  Politics  liberal  economic  reform  PIIGS  Europe  savings  glut  zombie  consumer  greatrecession  GFC  Richardkoo  zombie  banks  Japan  lostgeneration  lostdecade  2013  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  debt  monetisation  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  2012  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  ECB  Fed  USA  balance  sheet  recession  consumption  consumer 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Truckers hit France for cheap fuel | City A.M.
BRITISH hauliers are filling up their vehicles in France in a bid to avoid soaring diesel costs at home, losing the UK an estimated £1.2bn in tax every year, petrol retailers claimed yesterday.Truck manufacturers are even building vehicles with bigger tanks so that drivers can fill-up with as much foreign, cheaper diesel as possible.The diesel price has steadily risen and rather than just trucks it is now used in high performance cars thanks to improved technology.With diesel costing up to £1.47 a litre in the UK, the companies are getting their fuel at an average of 20 per cent cheaper in places like Calais, according to the RMI Independent Petrol Retailers Association. Chairman Brian Madderson said: “This is another example of a government own goal. Its fuel policies are directly contributing to a reduced tax opportunity for the treasury.The RMI estimates that the figures translates to £1.2bn lost in VAT for the treasury if all items bought in petrol stations are taken into account.
economics  VAT  2011  UK  markets  borders  unintended  consequences  liberal  tax  taxation  taxevasion 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Why Aren’t Banks Lending? They Are Being Rational | The Big Picture
Lending money is a risky business; there is the possibility of loss. Under-capitalized banks cannot take that chance. By not lending, their capital base goes up. IT is the rational thing to do from their perspective.
Rather than engage in traditional money lending, these banks have decided to simply borrow from the Fed at 0%, and make risk free loans to the Treasury at 3%.
.
--- BATTLE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY --- KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS vs LIBERAL ECONOMICS
... 1 point for keynes to stop the downturn
... 1 point to austrians bc banks dont lend
.... 1 point to austrians because govnt debt is on the verge of failure
.... -1 for keynes bc it gave to wrong impression

to be continued 2010.

Why? They need to rebuild their capital levels after 30 years of declining safeguards and capital ratios.

This is yet another unintended consequence of bailing reckless bankers from their folly. Theior oplace in the economy is so distorted, as to become nearly economically meaningless . . .
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december 2009 by asterisk2a

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