asterisk2a + leverage   69

(10204) Are We Destined for a Slow Growth Future? - YouTube
- shortage on the demand side. but demand can't be more leveraged and borrowed. ALL economic indicators point against a thriving of the UK bottom up (from household finances, are stretched thinly) //&! Gross wages lower than 10 years ago! Lost decade of earnings. In real terms people are NOT better off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0anqgXLvwko
secular  stagnation  Brexit  household  debt  consumer  UK  USA  loan  GFC  recovery  Productivity  output  gap  economic  history  leverage  underinvestment  banking  property  bubble  housing  demographic  immigration  working  poor  poverty  Austerity  Trickle-down  Gesellschaft  DonaldTrump  Donald  Trump  inequality  social  mobility  income  Society  inflation  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  debt-servicing  OECD  IMF  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Fed  globalisation  globalization  trap  credit  card  creditcard  creditcrunch  student  auto 
july 2018 by asterisk2a
Homebase owners may close up to 40 stores - BBC News
[first the supermarkets, then everyone else, also UK restaurant trade struggling, especially mid-market! anything above your payday takeout, also housing growth is slowing down thus DIY ] UK retailers are struggling in the face of rising inflation and fragile consumer confidence.

Several store chains have announced job cuts recently, including supermarket giants Tesco, Sainsbury's and Asda.

Homebase's rival, B&Q, last week said it was cutting 200 jobs at its head office in Hampshire as part of a cost-cutting drive. &! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/05/uk-services-sector-growth-falls-hotels-restaurants-brexit - Demand weakens for services such as restaurants and hotels amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty
UK  Brexit  disposable  income  economy  discretionary  spending  growth  wage  Productivity  High  Street  Precariat  working  poor  poverty  trap  social  mobility  pay  rise  inflation  broke  household  debt  credit  card  leverage  recovery  secular  stagnation  history  GFC  Austerity  underinvestment  output  gap  HighStreet  Services  Service 
february 2018 by asterisk2a
STEVE KEEN on Private Debt - YouTube
the trick is up for tory austerity soon, when the private debt/household debt bubble bursts. and or the uk economy comes to a standstill. /// London has driven out the real wealth creators - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dyk1t4wEDAE - democracy by houses, bc renters have no rights, &! Money , banks, debt seems not to matter in status quo economics - Prof Steve Keen on Parasitic Banking Sector London School of Economics - https://youtu.be/Kh99jEE18KY GFC recovery is not recovery it is Japanese style stagnation! ex imigration¬!
UK  London  Margaret  Thatcher  private  debt  Consumer  household  mortgage  GFC  recovery  Brexit  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  reflate  reflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Austerity  service  sector  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  leverage  economic  history  living  standard  wage  growth  mobility  social  inequality  Gini  Coefficient  tax  evasion  avoidance  HMRC  payday  loan  trickle-down  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  JAM  Theresa  May  Philip  Hammond  IMF  OECD  neoliberalism  crony  capitalism  Exploitation  corporatism  Consumerism  materialism  GDP  underinvestment  ROI  BOE  Mark  Carney  Steve  Keen  book 
march 2017 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth at E.Y.W.T.K.B.N.H.D.T.A. By ThePressProject - YouTube
from this point on, summer 2016, hope is that it can get only better. // it is remarkable Greece is still alive // problem is, that banks were only bailed out to a level of zombie banks. see non-performing loans. zombie banks in PIGS country and Deutsche Bank. Contagion. ... banks will languish on as long as economy languishes on; https://soundcloud.com/theeconomist/money-talks-stressed-out-banks
Mark  Blyth  Greece  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  bank  bailout  GFC  Political  Class  Centrist  Centrists  Austerity  leverage  ESM  secular  stagnation  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Gold & World’s Debt Problems (Summer Solutions series E940) - YouTube
deflationary trap/liquidity trap - orthodox monetary policy w austerity = stagnation. & west is exporting deflation. // if it is good for consumers ... break up banks. // hedging is BS ... you double the system you double the risk. [...] banks are now bigger! ... ban most derivatives, and reintroduce glass stegall // Black-Schoeles - there is no such think as risk free rate and no such thing as the past reflect the future. risk is not equally distributed. [...] VAR is flawed. //
deflation  deflationary  NIRP  currency  war  currency  debasement  ZIRP  QE  Helicopter  Money  secular  stagnation  western  world  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  Fed  ECB  economic  history  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  debt  overhang  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  mortgage  market  mortgage  rates  distortion  hunt  for  yield  credit  boom  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  reflate  reflation  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  income  disparity  working  poor  Precariat  Brexit  GFC  too  big  to  jail  productive  investment  underinvestment  austerity  history  productivity  gap  financial  instruments  investment  banking  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  derivatives  output  gap  productivity  recovery  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Chicago  School  neoclassical  economics  deregulation  Wall  Street  speculative  bubble  property  bubble  Beton  Gold  Betongold  stagnation  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  fail  TBTF  complexity  systemic  risk  systemrelevant  systemicrisk  systemrelevanz  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  non-performing  loan  leverage  hedge  Glass-Steagall  Black-Scholes  Equation 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
"Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System": IMF
via Keister Report - https://youtu.be/fbh3rndGDN8 // a Italian banking crisis could topple them. that is why they (their economist) called for a EU bank bailout (shore up). //&! IMF Warns Of "Global Contagion" From Italy's Bank Crisis; Forecasts Two-Decade Long Recession - http://bit.ly/29sFINn - [...] "Unless asset quality and profitability problems are addressed in a timely manner, lingering problems of weaker banks can eventually weigh on the rest of the system," //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-09/charting-epic-collapse-worlds-most-systemically-dangerous-bank //&! Analyst Warns Deutsche Bank's Problems May Now Be "Insurmountable" - http://bit.ly/29LwUjv - [...] we believe DBK is still over 40x levered. [...] Seeking outside capital is also likely to be difficult as management would likely find it hard to offer any type of return on new capital invested. //&! its known balance sheet - http://bit.ly/29usGKG - 1.74 trillion balance sheet!
Italy  Germany  derivatives  Deutsche  Bank  BuBa  BaFin  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  investment  banking  systemic  risk  systemicrisk  systemrelevant  systemrelevanz  European  Bank  Supervision  stresstest  contagion  repo  trust  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Greece  Brexit  non-performing  loan  zombie  banks  zombie  austerity  secular  stagnation  recession  ECB  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  OMT  LTRO  Basel  III  Basel3  leverage  banking  union  Bank  Oversight  banking  crisis  banking  system  interbank  lending  overnight  deposit  facility 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
The Fed Sends A Frightening Letter To JPMorgan, Corporate Media Yawns
At the top of page 11, the Federal regulators reveal that they have “identified a deficiency” in JPMorgan’s wind-down plan which if not properly addressed could “pose serious adverse effects to the financial stability of the United States.” Why didn’t JPMorgan’s Board of Directors or its legions of lawyers catch this?

It’s important to parse the phrasing of that sentence. The Federal regulators didn’t say JPMorgan could pose a threat to its shareholders or Wall Street or the markets. It said the potential threat was to “the financial stability of the United States.” [...] “…the default of a bank with a higher connectivity index would have a greater impact on the rest of the banking system because its shortfall would spill over onto other financial institutions, creating a cascade that could lead to further defaults. High leverage,
corporate  media  media  conglomerate  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  fail  too  big  to  jail  TBTF  jpmorgan  jpmorganchase  USA  GFC  recovery  liquidity  trap  repo  liquidity  squeeze  economic  history  Financial  Stability  Board  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  crisis  crony  capitalism  Greed  shareholder  capitalism  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  investment  banking  retail  banking  leverage  CDS  engineering  CDO  MBS  subprime  FDIC  complexity  Fed  Janet  Yellen  Wall  Street  reflate  reflation  derivatives  credit  bubble 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Yanis Varoufakis: »MONEY AND POWER«, Public Lecture 2015-11-04
3rd bailout loan $0 went to Greece. All to pay off banks. extend & pretend. 1st: ~90% went to the banks. [...] ESM does not exist [...] banking union plan not progressing at all. //&! Yanis Varoufakis @Oxford Union - youtu.be/zWB6lY2GBjQ - ACADEMIA LACKS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT ATTITUDE! Because going against the grain has become anti-reputation. [...] it's all about expectations, predictions about where S&P500 will be in 12 months. [...] regression between theory and reality. economists have never been humble. [ see Wall Street cottage factory of analysis and prediction shops ] [...] if you torture the data and model enough it will confess. [< EU monetary union based on theory ] [...] [34:00] Brussels is technically incompetent and will not reform itself. I am a libertarian marxist. Schumpeter. true creative destruction. great wealth currently created - all going to 1%. = not humanitarian. not democratic. [...] 41:00 Q&A, <48:50> gov budget not same as household budget; George Osborne.
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Money: The Too Big to Fail Edition by Panoply Media
Neil Irwin, author of The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire, joins hosts Felix Salmon of Fusion, Cathy O’Neil of mathbabe.org, and Slate’s Moneybox columnist Jordan Weissmann. This week is all about Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed's new solution for our too-big-to-fail banks. //!& breaking up has complexity ... financial-industrial complex! //
too  big  to  bail  toobigtofail  TBTF  retail  banking  investment  banking  VAR  discounted  risk  systemicrisk  discounting  risk  BIS  centralbanks  liquidity  trap  GFC  financial  product  recovery  TARP  UK  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  economic  history  book  monopsony  oligopoly  oligopol  repo  interbank  lending  complexity  financial-industrial  complex  leverage  derivatives 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News
[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  macroprudential  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  aggregate  demand  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  policy  folly  policy  error  consumer  debt  household  debt  budget  deficit  recovery  mortgage  market  credit  bubble  GFC  bank  bailout  BOE  zombie  banks  rentier  rent-seeking  Richard  Koo  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  zombie  consumer  industrial  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  herding  herd  hunt  for  yield  leverage  margin  trading  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  VAR  CDO  CDS  risk  aversion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  inequality  UK  generational  contract  lost  generation  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Meet the Renegades Steve Keen - YouTube
[ chicago school of economics ] 17:25 - private debt // demand will never be again so starong as before GFC. growth of debt/credit is normal. but without growth and high debt is cancer. + current account deficit/trade deficit = means things for UK can not go in indefinitely. austerity will run its course, will not make things better. next is property bubble! and NPL as normalisation to 2% nears // China margin trading & leverage via credit bubble. property bubble. // 24:20 - there is still room to grow household/private debt. Tories treat gov budget like a household rather than a bank! UK will stumble along at lower rate than America. Will not get better! Just rearranging deck chairs of a painfully slowly sinking ship.
secular  stagnation  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  UK  USA  Japan  economic  history  car  loan  GFC  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  confidence  junk  bond  NPL  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  student  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  mortgage  market  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  austerity  dogma  neoclassical  economics  book  ideology  margin  trading  leverage  western  world  Hegemony  China  Super  Cycle 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bill Gross' Advice To Traders As Stocks Crash | Zero Hedge
His conclusion: "The wealth effect is created by leverage based on QE’s and 0% rates." In other words, it was all an illusion.
leverage  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  history  401k  bank  bailout  GFC  distortion  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  oligarchy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  capitalism 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
"How The Investment Grade Dominos Will Fall" - UBS Explains | Zero Hedge
According to Citigroup's Matt King, it is now officially too late to save junk debt, which has entered the final stage of the credit cycle, the one where defaults for high yield bonds rise with every passing month. [...] we estimate that nearly $1tn of speculative-grade credits are at risk of default over the next downturn, as the stock of low-quality credit has soared. [...] These developments are a negative headwind for investment-grade corporates in 2016.
creditrating  creditrisk  NPL  corporate  debt  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  speculative  bubbles  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  leverage  junk  bond  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  monetary  policy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  economic  history  Taper  QT  M&A 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Perfect Storm!? | Zero Hedge
And with debt now $57 trillion higher worldwide than in 2008, it’s not at all clear that another borrowing binge will be greeted with enthusiasm by the world’s bond markets, currency traders or entrepreneurs. [ market correction, no liquidity, stuck with position, this may be no correction, but correction back to fundamental grounds ] [...] And one thought will appear in all those minds: Why didn’t I load up on gold when I had the chance?
2015  2016  China  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  household  debt  mortgage  market  property  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  credit  card  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  servitude  corporate  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  Taper  Fed  BOE  ECB  PBOC  output  gap  globalisation  globalization  borderless  secular  stagnation  western  world  OPEC  Oil  price  commodity  prices  flat  world  BRIC  leverage 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
UK interest rates held at 0.5% after 8-1 Bank vote - BBC News
The central bank said cost pressures in the UK's labour market were rising too slowly for inflation to return to the Bank's 2% target, and that inflation would stay below 1% until spring 2016. Inflation has been hovering around 0% for the past few months, but the Bank had indicated that robust domestic growth and the fading effect of last year's big oil price falls would cause it to bounce back towards 2% next year. Although UK consumer spending had remained resilient, bolstered by wage growth, attempts to reduce the UK budget deficit had restrained activity and global growth had been below average.
UK  BOE  MPC  austerity  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  disposable  income  income  growth  low  income  job  creation  productivity  output  gap  recovery  fiscal  policy  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  monetary  policy  2015  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  car  loan  Student  Bubble  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  balance  sheet  recession  leverage  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  asset  reflate  reflation  property  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  global  economy  USA  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  George  Osborne  Tories  Conservative  Party  constituency  babyboomers  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  Millennials  generationy 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
UK mortgage market, Barclays Qatar probe and US bank CEOs by FT Banking Weekly
there will be no push for new homes to flood the market, increasing prices support status quo, Loan to value measures (underwater or not?). house prices outpaced income since GFC. Buy-to-Let amplifies boom-bust. bank system resilient enough for 35% fall of prices. // generationengerechtigkeit - more of disposable income to spend on rent! putting money into pockets of rentier (buy-to-let) who can him or herself buy only so many pairs of jeans.
UK  mortgage  market  2015  NPL  underwater  CDS  securitisation  retail  banking  investment  banking  CDO  Taper  BOE  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  property  bubble  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Right  to  Buy  generation  rent  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  distortion  GFC  recovery  leverage  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  Generationengerechtigkeit  rent-seeking  rentier 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Nomi Prins-Federal Reserve Transition to Destruction - YouTube
via - http://schiffgold.com/interviews/former-wall-street-insider-some-form-of-bank-bail-ins-will-come-to-us-video/ ||&! QE and ZIRP bad policy, bank and market cuddeling. no mainstreet recovery! trickle-down failed. Private sector can not carry existing minimal momentum forward. policy has not helped people on the ground. // many bubbles created: junk bond/zombie corps, car loans, student loans, property, ... // transition to destruction, volatility is first sign. // market manipulation! // inflated financial system // rise in NPL! where how will they cover that? another bailout? or bail-in. taking depositors haircut. FDIC can't cover that all.
ZIRP  NIRP  book  QE  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  BRIC  China  2015  junk  bond  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  household  debt  UK  USA  BOE  Fed  mandate  Fed  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MPC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  retail  banking  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  benbernanke  alangreenspan  dot.com  speculative  bubbles  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  private  debt  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  fiscal  policy  austerity  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debtoverhang  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mainstreet.org  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  crony  capitalism  corporate  debt  bubbles  asset  bubble  correction  mortgage  market  libor  rigging  scandal  trust  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  FX  reserves  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  balance  sheet  recession  Niall  Ferguson  financial  repression  distortion  Pr 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
China  sovereign  debt  crisis  European  Union  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  headwinds  Fed  mandate  BOE  bond  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  QT  British  Pound  Sterling  Dollar  petrodollar  FX  reserves  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  GFC  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  budget2015  David  Cameron  industrial  policy  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Research  competitiveness  competitive  differentiate  differentiation  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  business  confidence  business  investment  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  western  world  deflationary  deflation  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  education  policy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  code  corporate  tax  rate  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  monetary  monetary  debt  unconve 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Non-performing loans in China, investment bank landscape and Portugal's Novo Banco by FT Banking Weekly
what is the exposure of western banks to china? zero hedge had one post that showed London's banks were biggest participants in chinas credit bubble bonanza ...
NPL  shadow  banking  China  credit  bubble  2015  investment  banking  banking  crisis  PBOC  QE  margin  trading  leverage  equity  bubble  property  bubble  infrastructure  investment  ghost  towns  migration 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The Fed has to deal with its own zombie apocalypse
"However, there are pockets of greater weakness like these zombie companies. These pockets are likely to see some more turbulence than overall conditions. Some companies definitely will go out of business." It isn't just the zombies, though, that should worry about higher rates. Corporate America overall has been piling on the debt, which grew 8.3 percent in the second quarter, according to figures the Fed released Friday. [...] Michael Contopoulos, high-yield strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the high-yield space is a mess no matter what the Fed does. Global economic weakness and deteriorating fundamentals are making it increasingly harder for the Fed to underwrite junk debt through a zero funds rate. [...] Earnings for junk companies have been "incredibly weak," [...] "leverage is at all-time highs" while "defaults and downgrades are creeping into the market." [...] the issues with high-yield could be more secular in nature.
zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Junk  Bond  Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  USA  Richard  Koo  interest  payments  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unconventional  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  distortion  unknown  unkown  complexity  QT  2015  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  credit  ratings  secular  stagnation  western  world  refinancing  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  corporate  debt  leverage  margin  trading  reflate  reflation  productivity  UK  Europe  output  gap  competitive  competition  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  New  Normal  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  Party  Round  SPV  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  B  Round  A  Round  growth  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  2015  cost  of  living  credit  bubble  cost  of  entry  aspirational  leverage  margin  trading  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  Fed  unintended  consequences  burn  rate  runway  ECB  Mutual  Fund  unknown  unkown  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  economic  growth  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  financial  financial  repression  western  world  Developing  BRIC  emerging  complexity  incomplete  information 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine - Bloomberg View
It turns out investors were right about Alibaba: No company is more on the front lines of China's economic shifts than Jack Ma's juggernaut. And that's just where the problems begin. [...] After months of putting the entire weight of the government behind saving the market, Beijing appears to have given up. The fallout from that realization will have unpredictable effects on 1.3 billion people indoctrinated to believe Beijing can control any crisis or narrative. As markets swoon and gross domestic product slides, consumers are delaying nonessential purchases. [...] Mass austerity has only just begun. [...] it would be interesting to see how the government responds to "large and widespread investment losses that could lead to a notable negative wealth effect which could weaken consumption, as well as grievances against the authorities." [...] Macau's GDP -26.4% last quarter [...] Chinese gamblers stayed home. [...] Ma created a better quarterly GDP report than Beijing.
Alibaba  China  Jack  Ma  2015  credit  bubble  PBOC  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  hunt  for  yield  speculation  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  margin  trading  leverage  discretionary  spending  Call  Taper  Fed  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  market  intervention  bond  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  hubris  irrational  exuberance  western  world  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  savings  glut  correlation  excess  reserves  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  investment  banking  New  Normal  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  BIS  centralbanks  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  short-term  1%  Super  Rich  Privileged  Establishment  Toff  bank  bailout 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: In the Valley, pre-seed is a meme. In New York, it’s a necessity
// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  entry  London  Start-up  Scene  ecosystem  New  York  Scene  burn  rate  runway  traction  A  Round  seedfunding  funding  Angel  Investor  dilution  cap  table  lesson  advice  liquidation  preferences  hunt  for  yield  2015  distortion  FOMO  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  Limited  Partners  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  Silicon  Valley  Private  Market  Public  Market  reflate  reflation  cost  of  living  valuation  Unicorn  Decacorn  cost  of  leverage  financial  repression  financial  literacy  financial  financial  cycle  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  hubris  panic  irrational  exuberance  retail  banking  investment  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  crisis 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles - Bloomberg View
[Money has been slushing arnd in markets speculating, not investing in future & productive, added value goods. big companies are flush 2. easy credit is holding zombie corps of the last century over water. western world is persisting 2 put a banking bailout/crisis in the light of a sovereign debt crisis 2 push idealogical austerity. falling way being, never be able 2 catch up with productivity, output gap, STEM, research, future of work, smart grid & infrastructure, retooling their economy 21st century style.] // "speculation in property markets, amplified by mortgage financing, as a persistent central factor driving economic cycles." [...] the worst bubbles -- those that inflict the most economic pain -- tend to involve not just speculation, but a surge in easy lending and increasing leverage. [...] economic downturns following credit bubbles were generally worse and lasted longer. [...] danger of leverage cycle. // [ easy credit & debt fuelled recovery of assets, not fundamentals ]
book  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  economic  history  zombie  banks  Mark  Blyth  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  business  confidence  business  investment  economic  damage  2015  faultlines  structural  imbalance  structural  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  education  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  western  world  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  Software  Is  Eating  The  GFC  Career  Politicians  status  quo  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  banking  crisis  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  financial  market  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Impediments  distortion  economic  model  economic  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  financial  incentive  financial  repression  financial  literacy  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  monetary  stimulus  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  PBOC  China  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  academia  academics  economic-thought  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  hubris  panic  consumer  confidence  confidence  trust  banking  investment  banking  distr 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Faber: The Global Economy Is Entering An Epic Slump - YouTube
could see liquidity squeeze. have global credit bubble. Chinas own (2009-Put) did pop, probably just this Summer '15! // may lead 2 zombie banks, if they werent already if it werent 4 PBOC with huge amounts of NPL also within shadow banking system. bit.ly/1FaVAZt policy response could be 2 double down on usual mis-guided measures 2 keep status quo. extend & pretend. // World is still flush, thus currently moderate signs of impact of China slowdown - bit.ly/1EuMVXe - will take time. // &! leverage / margin trading was/is at new highs comparable to 2007 on both side of Pacific (USA/China) - bit.ly/1IxyRXD - so the hurt was/will be big! BIG! underwater. talk abt manufactured balance sheet recession // &! Willem Buiter: Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World Now - bit.ly/1Et5Bq5 - major blast of fiscal spending by PBOC in some months when the hurt cant be ignored any more. Will wait too long, will drag everyone else down. & bit.ly/1NYB5nQ &! youtu.be/3wvQDxJPhQ4 - Jim Rogers.
liquidity  trap  credit  bubble  2015  China  private  debt  household  debt  PBOC  equity  bubble  property  bubble  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  distortion  margin  trading  NPL  zombie  banks  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  leverage  underwater  contagion  USA  UK  Europe  developed  world  IMF  OECD  QE  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Jim  Rogers 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Sorry to burst your bubble | The Economist
bit.ly/1IfX0s9 // "According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt." // see China Stock Market leverage pop mid 2015 - with its huge rise in margin debt trading ... money which was flowing out of the property market into the Stock Market // // &! so if it is about debt - UK mortgage market & consumer/private debt of all kind (loans and credit card debt) does qualify as they took up what was cut by austerity. Plus the Supply Demand distortion, with new builds/project at a decades lowest. // Question for China. The China problem. Can they make their system sustainable before it will crush everyone. // The most obvious is China. But the next one will be different & greater than all came before. Period. Still, UK had not a housing bubble collapse on its own making. Only through endogenous circumstances. UK recession as UK economy runs mostly on consumer sector & debt) bit.ly/1OpClSO bit.ly/1wQITjb bit.ly/1SycLtY
leverage  debtoverhang  equity  bubble  regulation  self-regulation  regulators  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  household  debt  private  debt  economic  history  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Greenspan-Put  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  margin  trading  margin  debt  asset  liquidity  economic  damage  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  mortgage  market  UK  credit  card  housing  market  property  bubble  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  sustainability  sustainable  NPL  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  economic  model  economic  irrational  exuberance  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  debt  monetisation  reflation  debt  monetization  consumerist  consumerism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  financial  financial  crisis  GFC  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  baddebt  non-performing  loan 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Fear Trumps Greed in Silicon Valley as Some Venture Firms Hedge - Bloomberg Business
[... high ops cost associated w SF/Palo Alto ... fancy office (and expensive (rarefied) developers from Google or Facebook) in SF as a sign of success while burning +2m per year at least with no cash flow in sight ... and with all consumer products being free and hoping to finance themselves in the future with advertising ... ] Some VCs are urging their companies to build a rainy day fund to ensure their survival. [...] It’s a constant battle deciding whether to invest in a potentially lucrative deal, said Philadelphia financier Rudy Karsan: “Greed versus fear.” [ Softbank Capital just last week came out publicly with a shift in strategy, to invest now ONLY in proven winners, at slightly premium to get in (and with preferred liquidation preferences in writing), &focus resources on those portfolio companies ... than to compete in a crowded, distorted, muggy, in transparent, very speculative (with lots of ifs and luck and bet on CEO to execute well) A-, B- (and C-Round) market. ]
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
The real truth about the 2008 financial crisis | Brian S. Wesbury | TEDxCountyLineRoad - YouTube
bankers are greedy & excess speculation, is the story. Fed controls short-term interest rate through interest rate setting/Fed meetings based on fundy of American economy, // NIRP (greenspan put) post dot.com, distorts market, decision makers decisions. housing bubble w help of NIRP after dot.com & home-ownership campaign in bush years (fiscal stimulus/subsidies) 2 push that "asset." Not "home" to live in. // banks got too big to fail (their balance sheet/lending book) as liabilities (toxic assets - real downside unknown (due to complexity and day to day changes during crisis years), like CDO/CDS etc) overtook book, overall, value. Banking being actually insolvent, but how insolvent one doesn't know. Thus bad bank idea. ACCOUNTING. // Paul Volker raised rates ... was able, because USA (private household, banks, corporates) were not in a balance sheet recession. Problem was endogenous. // Deregulation + Lax accounting contributed to GFC greatly, unable to value banks books.
GFC  economic  history  fractional  reserve  banking  financial  crisis  monetary  theory  systemicrisk  Greenspan-Put  NIRP  ZIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  interestrate  dot.com  reflation  reflate  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  leverage  alangreenspan  greenspan  Ben  Bernanke  benbernanke  distortion  housing  market  accounting  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  financial  market  financial  incentive  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  TARP  subprime  QE  stresstest  timgeithner  henrypaulson  economic  model  economic  damage  macroeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  history  paulvolcker  complexity  incomplete  information  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  confidence  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  mark-to-market  Janet  Yellen 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
David Stockman: Central Banks Setting Up World for Bad Time - YouTube
"monetary madness" - repeat phrase of we aim for 2% inflation, that is why we do it. // BIS warned recently in its yearly paper - that Central Banks are unable to combat any global crisis flare-up that is more likely to be worse than GFC ... could be China of all things. // 2000 bust was fought with fed easing and throwing money at it, and GFC too. Next crisis - throwing money at it and easing will not be possible. // &! Deflation Comes First, Then Inflation - Mike Maloney - youtu.be/vAFtlgJNMCo // &! "One Bet, that is Big Enough, (that maybe was even conventional wisdom that it is save and THE BET) when wrong, does put you in a deep deep hole - youtu.be/tp9UjhZz-eo --- Nassim Taleb. There are lots of candidates/things that could blow up in peoples faces. &! Nouriel Roubini: Deflation Needs Monetary, Fiscal Policy - youtu.be/IADncoxQRYg
BIS  deflationary  deflation  financial  repression  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Abenomics  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  inflation  expectation  inflation  currency  war  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  IMF  currency  debasement  inflation  targeting  disinflation  hyperinflation  dis-inflation  deleveraging  leverage  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  dot.com  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  fiat  money  trust  trustagent  Nassim  Taleb  Black  Swan  Greece 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
China's stockmarket crash: A red flag | The Economist
via bit.ly/1HgJT6x // "Yet China’s intervention has screamed of panic. [...] If economic stability is not in peril, why then the panic? The most compelling explanation is politics. The government has staked much credibility and prestige on the stockmarket. When the going was still good, the official press was chock-a-block with articles about how the rally reflected the economic reforms that Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, was set to push. Li Keqiang, the premier, said repeatedly that he wanted equity markets to provide a bigger share of corporate financing—comments, from punters' perspective, not unlike waving a red cape in front of a bull. The sudden end to the rally is the first major dent in the public standing of the Xi-Li team. The botched attempts to stabilise the market only make them look weaker, giving succour to their critics." &! bbc.in/1eFbi8h - 1929 margin trading (borrowing to buy shares) & leverage products &! bloom.bg/1RjIgg9
China  equity  bubble  2015  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  Middle  Class  Politics  public  perception  economic  model  economic  damage  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  economic  growth  group  behavior  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  asset  bubble  margin  trading  leverage  margin  debt 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - The Death of Money - 04-30-15 - YouTube
distribution of risk (bell curve, wrong) & talebs black swan! / 'dismal science alone doesn't do the world and people justice.' / IMF is the central bank of the world (funded, special drawing right - SDR; out of thin air - backed by national central banks as reference (basket) but not backed by anything. printed money.) / Hungary's crisis - people borrowing in Swiss Franc ... SDR marry go round paying someone off with the help of IMF ... / IMF is transparent non-transparent. Try reading it. Need to be an expert. / AIIB able to issue bonds and got billions in capital - China/Asia Development Bank. Everybody joined because they want those contracts for their local/national companies ... except USA. Asia (China led) World Bank equivalent. - bit.ly/1Mxz1Dp &! bit.ly/1x04SZv / China wants to be in IMF & be part of basket of SDR / China may back its currency with Gold eventually once theyve got enough & leverage then its position. / US wants Yuan to be pegged to $ / m44 debt sustainability
economic  model  book  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  academia  academics  science  sociology  psychology  discounted  risk  risk  discount  complexity  distributed  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  dogma  ideology  centralbanks  Fed  technocrat  IMF  World  Bank  Troika  bailout  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  austerity  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  currency  war  currency-war  currency  debasement  SDR  Special  Drawing  Right  AIIB  inflation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  counterpartyrisk  leverage  zombie  banks  Wall  Street  financial  repression  financial  literacy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Here’s how reporters are reacting to Snowden’s revelations | PandoDaily
The global surveillance programs revealed by Edward Snowden have caused journalists to change how they operate, question what the government knows about them, and consider abandoning investigative reporting, according to a survey from the Pew Research Center. A significant number of the journalists surveyed said they had changed their behavior, whether it’s how they store sensitive files (49 percent), how they communicate with other journalists (29 percent), whether they’ve reached out to a source (13 percent), or pursued a specific story (2 percent). Many are also convinced the government is gathering information about them. Some 64 percent of journalists believed intelligence agencies had “probably collected data” about them. (The other 36 percent, as “InfoSec Taylor Swift” joked, must not read the news.)
investigative  journalism  journalism  journalismus  presidency  barackobama  surveillance  state  Orwellian  encryption  Internet  Privacy  Privacy  Whistleblower  NSA  CIA  FBI  GCHQ  BND  Five  Eyes  Wikileaks  Intelligence  Agency  foreign  relations  foreign  policy  foreign  affairs  Career  Politicians  Politics  David  Cameron  UK  USA  Europe  Espionage  Act  corporate  cyber  FISA  Court  FISAAA  Secret  Courts  leverage  Power  Play  Political  Governance  oversight  accountability  trust  trustagent  confidence  democracy  transparency  No  Representation  short-term  view  short-term  thinking  unintended  consequences  Lügenpresse  Pressefreiheit  freedom  of  press  wiretapping  folly  science  error  distrust  fairness  Law  &  Justice  Justice  System  complexity 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
Bubbles, Regulation, and Secular Stagnation - NYTimes.com
In brief, there is a case for believing that the problem of maintaining adequate aggregate demand is going to be very persistent – that we may face something like the “secular stagnation” many economists feared after World War II. [...] The stability of prices and output masked an underlying unsustainable growth in leverage. [...] Our current episode of deleveraging will eventually end, which will shift the IS curve back to the right. But if we have effective financial regulation, as we should, it won’t shift all the way back to where it was before the crisis. Or to put it in plainer English, during the good old days demand was supported by an ever-growing burden of private debt, which we neither can nor should expect to resume; as a result, demand is going to be lower even once the crisis fades. [...] our current situation may well go on much longer than anyone currently imagines.
student  loan  debt  lobby  deregulation  monetary  policy  lobbyist  asset  bubble  modern  monetary  theory  reflation  dual  mandate  fiscal  stimulus  Lobbying  BOE  BOJ  macroeconomics  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  trap  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  bubble  political  error  paulkrugman  austerity  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  nominal  GDP  targeting  dis-inflation  deleveraging  regulation  economics  public  debt  secular  stagnation  inflation  private  debt  balance  sheet  recession  mandate  debt  jubilee  GFC  complexity  excess  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  consumer  debt  liquidity-trap  political  folly  WWII  lostdecade  greatrecession  policy  error  regulators  debtoverhang  Wicksellian  natural  interest  rate  NIRP  Fed  microeconomics  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  Great  Moderation  leverage  stagnation  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  ZIRP  USA  household  debt  fiscal  theory  Japan  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Five Years After Lehman, BIS Ex-Chief Economist Warns "It's Worse This Time" | Zero Hedge
The share of "leveraged loans" or extreme forms of credit risk, used by the poorest corporate borrowers, has soared to an all-time high of 45% - 10 percentage points higher than at the peak of the crisis in 2007. + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/record-high-grade-leverage-means-pik-toggle-lbo-debt-back-and-worse-ever // The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-23/bank-international-settlements-warns-monetary-kool-aid-party-over ""central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery... cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html
unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  ope  reflation  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  BOJ  LBO  balancesheet  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  2013  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  political  error  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  centralbanks  liberal  economic  reform  faultlines  GFC  monetary  theory  exuberance  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  stimulus  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  liquidity-trap  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  benbernanke  bank  crisis  Abenomics  rebalancing  China  greatrecession  policy  error  productivity  LTRO  NIRP  OMT  Fed  communication  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  leverage  KennethRogoff  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  BIS  POMO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2013/speech670.pdf
UK’s King Last Speech: UK needs more Bank of England stimulus as recovery is not assured. >> UK's future still uncertain. Reflective in Cable (GBPUSD). While others do much better. >> "Despite this encouraging picture, growth is not yet strong enough to reduce the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. Nor is recovery at an adequate rate fully assured. The weakness of the euro area and the problems of the UK banking system continue to act as a drag on growth. So the need to support the recovery remains. [...] unemployment remains unnecessarily high. [...] Both nominal and real interest rates are at unsustainably low levels. There is an understandable yearning for a return to normality [...] Monetary policy cannot provide the answer. [... Banking > ...] It is insufficient capital that restricts lending [+ holding not enough liquid assets]. And, without a resilient banking system, it will be difficult to sustain a recovery."
unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  reflation  zombie  banks  capital  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  Discount  Window  Facility  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  liquidity  QE  price  stability  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  devaluation  political  error  imbalance  creditcrunch  Recapitalization  trustagent  hunt  for  yield  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  global  imbalances  inflation  debt  monetization  governance  balance  sheet  recession  Leverage  GFC  complexity  output-gap  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  too  big  to  jail  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  policy  error  debtoverhang  Special  Scheme  NIRP  trust  economic  history  confidence  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  MervynKing  toobigtofail  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Hugh Hendry: When I Speak On TV It Gives The Impression That I Am Full Of Myself | ZeroHedge
Word that describe the GFC and the LIBOR rigging scandal (which will see central banks, bank bosses and regulators aware of the issue at the hight of the crisis 2008) ::

“We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class – and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond – and it terrifies them.”

[...]

For example, he reckons US government bond yields, already at record lows, will continue to fall. And, although he professes not to be a contrarian, he is more optimistic about the US than many investors and is “long the debt-saddled west and short the vastly over-vaunted and over-owned” Bric quartet of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

He believes that financial markets are single-digit years away from a crash that will present investors with opportunities of a lifetime. “Bad things are going to happen and I still think the closest analogy is the 1930s.”
USA  status  quo  BRIC  Japan  Leverage  HughHendry  debt  jubilee  deleveraging  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  greatrecession  GFC  LIBOR  rigging  scandal 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Recovery – Who are We Kidding?
In our assessment, what we see unfolding is the latest chapter in the tug of war between inflationary and deflationary forces. During the “goldilocks” economy of the last decade, investors levered themselves up. Homeowners treated their homes as if they were ATMs; banks set up off-balance sheet Special Investment Vehicles (SIVs); governments engaging in arrangements to get cheap loans that may cost future generations dearly. Cumulatively, it was an amazing money generation process; yet, central banks remained on the sidelines, as inflation – according to the metrics focused on - appeared contained. Indeed, we have argued in the past that central banks lost control of the money creation process, as they could not keep up with the plethora of “financial innovation” that justified greater leverage. It was only a matter of time before the world no longer appeared quite so risk-free. Rational investors thus reduced their exposure: de-levered. ...
mandate  monetarism  monetary  theory  economics  economic-thought  economic  history  paulvolcker  2012  deflation  inflation  Leverage  policy  folly  policy  error  QE  reflation  fiatmoney  fiat  currency  money  creation  process  oversight  WallStreet  regulation  FDIC  SEC  Fed  alangreenspan  benbernake  monetary  policy  greatrecession  GFC 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
"The Inequality Trap" by Kemal Derviş | Project Syndicate
The University of Chicago’s Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, tells a plausible story in his recent award-winning book Fault Lines about the connection between income inequality and the financial crisis of 2008.
Rajan argues that huge income concentration at the top in the US led to policies aimed at encouraging unsustainable borrowing by lower- and middle-income groups, through subsidies and loan guarantees in the housing sector and loose monetary policy. There was also an explosion of credit-card debt.

-
The recent work by Rajan, Stiglitz, Kumhof and Ranciere, and others explains the apparent paradox: those at the very top financed the demand of everyone else, which enabled both high employment levels and large current-account deficits.

PLUS - leverage and low interest rate environment

Stagnant incomes of US households (the 99%) is in the making since 70s. Is this Globalization effect? Playingfield gets leveled?
globalization  income-gap  income  inequality  income  USA  QE  ZIRP  Leverage  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  mortgage  subprime  freddiemac  FannieMea  loan-guarantee  subsidies  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  inequality  book  debt  bubble  bubble  GFC 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Quantitative easing: Just more of the same? | The Economist
THREE years ago the Bank of England, which had already cut interest rates to record lows, wheeled out a new, unconventional tool to stimulate the economy. It would buy government debt using newly-created cash—a policy that became known as “quantitative easing” or QE. The Bank is now a market mammoth, owning over 30% of the £940 billion ($1.5 trillion) pool of outstanding government bonds. It is set to get bigger: on February 9th the Bank's monetary-policy committee authorised £50 billion of new purchases over the next three months. But is this strategy working?
...

The Bank estimates its first injection of QE boosted Britain’s GDP by up to two percentage points and inflation by up to 1.5 points. Inflation is projected to fall well below the Bank’s 2% target in 2013, justifying further easing, according to Jens Larsen at RBC Capital Markets.

Yet QE has not made life much easier for British businesses.
liquidity  mittelstand  SMB  SME  quantitative-easing  sovereign  debt  crisis  creditcrunch  currency-war  debtoverhang  leverage  reflation  2012  monetary  policy  QE  BOE 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Global Finance’s Supply-Chain Revolution - Andrew Sheng - Project Syndicate
In today’s financial architecture, as with other supply chains, interdependent networks tend to concentrate in powerful hubs. For example, just two financial centers, London and New York, dominate international finance, and only 22 players conduct 90% of all global foreign-exchange trading. Such concentration is very efficient, but it also contributes to greater systemic risks, because, if the leading hubs fail, the whole system can collapse.

Open feedback mechanisms ensure a supply chain’s ability to respond to a changing environment, but, in the case of financial supply chains, feedback mechanisms can amplify shocks until the whole system blows up. The Lehman Brothers collapse triggered just such an explosion, with the financial system saved only by government bailouts.

Today, the financial sector needs innovation of a higher order, involving business models, strategy, and management approaches that restore trust in finance.
confidence  trust  reform  regulation  volatility  history  change  leverage  lehmanbrothers  GFC  supply-chain  London  wallstreet  finance 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
ECB's Balance Sheet Now Far Bigger Than Fed's, More Levered Than Lehman, PIIGS Exposure Up 50% In 6 Months | ZeroHedge
Bloodmberg chart of the day shows, the ECB's balance sheet is not only far greater than the Fed, at $3.2 trillion compared to $2.9 trillion for Ben Bernanke, but at 30x leverage, has the same risk as Lehman did at its peak.

“The ECB is providing liquidity and confidence to the banking system, yet all the while its own leverage and balance sheet size is hitting new highs. It seems likely that the market will begin to watch the rising leverage with interest and growing concern."

"Through its government bond buying and liquidity provision to banks, we estimate that the ECB’s exposure to weaker eurozone economies has now reached €705bn, up from €444bn in early summer – an increase of over 50% in only six months, raising fresh questions about its credibility, independence and possible losses it may face in the case of future sovereign defaults."
PIIGS  solvency  Europe  creditcrunch  liquidity-trap  liquidity  QE  SMP  leverage  2011  balancesheet  Fed  ECB 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Sweden Revamps Central Bank Tool Kit on Crisis - Bloomberg
The crisis has demonstrated that central bank models don’t take financial system risks properly into account, Ingves said, adding that it’s necessary to design econometric models that better catch the dynamics of the global economy.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last month signaled he also may be changing his view on the degree to which asset prices should be incorporated in monetary policy, a tool he in 2002 deemed “far too blunt” to prevent bubbles. “The possibility that monetary policy could be used directly to support financial stability goals, at least on the margin, should not be ruled out,” Bernanke said on Oct. 18 in a speech in Boston.
GFC  financialcrisis  financialmarket  centralbanks  lesson  economics  model  academia  academics  monetary  policy  tools  error  folloy  monetarism  leverage  deleveraging  Riksbank  ECB  Fed  balancesheet  QE  reform  history 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
Joke Is on China as U.S.s AAA Becomes Laughable: William Pesek - Bloomberg
As 2011 unfolds, the Bretton Woods II architecture that Asia created after the 1997 crisis isn’t just crumbling -- it’s putting trillions of dollars of state wealth at risk. Romantic notions about returning to the original Bretton Woods world of the gold standard are unrealistic in a global system as leveraged and nontransparent as ours. So is saving its successor, which saw Asia establishing de facto pegs to the dollar and amassing mountains of reserves to protect them.

The idea that any economy deserves a top rating today is just laughable. More and more, Chinese officials are realizing the joke is on them. The $1.2 trillion in U.S Treasuries held by China is but one part of the punch line. The other is the enthusiasm with which China has been buying debt issued by Greece, Portugal and other weak euro links.

Loading up on European debt is a case in point. The motivation is more politics than economics.
brettonwoods  history  leverage  system  systemicrisk  China  USA  rating  sovereign  debt  crisis  2011  outlook  foreignaffairs  ratingagencies  PIIGS  europe  politics  hindsight  analysis 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Another Exchange Halts Levered OTC Gold And Silver Trading | zero hedge
Last week it was Forex.com, now it is Oanda. As a reminder "... on Friday told clients it will discontinue its gold and silver over-the-counter products marketed to retail investors who are U.S. residents. It asked investors to close their positions by July 15." This was first reported on Zero Hedge. "Trading gold and silver over the counter -- bypassing a futures exchange -- offered investors a chance to enter a highly speculative, leveraged market that also left many investors at risk of fraud, according to one trade group. “In order to trade, it needs to be done in a exchange, or it can’t be done at all,” said Dan Driscoll, a vice president with the National Futures Association. The industry group asked Congress for such changes, due to numerous cases of fraud in such contracts. Doing business with a futures exchange offers retail investors more protections and transparency, he said." There you go: it's the extensive fraud that did it.
CME  Forex  broker  CFTC  Dodd-Frank  fraud  leverage  trading  OTC  2011  regulation  reform  oversight  Oanda 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
A Brief Reminder On NYSE Margin Debt | zero hedge
Today seems like an opportune time to remind readers that as of March, margin debt, and specifically net leverage, were at near all time highs. Surely, selling off from a market that has more leverage now than almost ever, will lead to a perfectly orderly unwind
leverage  speculation  commodities  2011  silver  gold  oil 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
More GCI/FXCM acquisition details, interview with Drew Niv | Forex Magnates
 no dealing desk

“Our global network of FX market makers includes global banks, financial institutions and market makers. For the nine months ended September 30, 2010, over 73% of our volume was transacted with the following global banks, in alphabetical order: Barclays, Banque Nationale de Paris, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Dresdner Bank/Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Nomura and UBS. The balance of our trading volume was transacted with our other market makers.”
FXCM  leverage  forex  2011 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Inequality, leverage and crises | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
Of the many origins of the global crisis, one that has received comparatively little attention is income inequality. This column provides a theoretical framework for understanding the connection between inequality, leverage and financial crises. It shows how rising inequality in a climate of rising consumption can lead poorer households to increase their leverage, thereby making a crisis more likely.
inequality  debt  finance  macroeconomics  crisis  microeconomics  income  Gini-coefficient  leverage  2008  2007 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
FT Alphaville » The banking ‘miracle’ – debunked
Risk illusion is no accident; it is there by design. It is in bank managers’ interest to make mirages seem like miracles. Regulatory measures are being put in place to block off last time’s risk strategies, including through re-calibrated leverage and capital ratios. But risk migrates to where regulation is weakest, so there are natural limits to what regulatory strategies can reasonably achieve.
risk  leverage  regulation  banking  history  financial 
july 2010 by asterisk2a
Fed’s Dudley Calls for Action on Bubbles - Real Time Economics - WSJ
Dudley’s view on asset bubbles comes as part of a broader re-evaluation of financial market bubbles by central bank officials. The shift in thinking is directly tied to events of recent years, where a huge run up in housing prices defended by most in markets ruptured, leading to the worst financial crisis and economic downturn since The Great Depression. The Fed, along with the Treasury, was forced into a broad and unprecedented range of actions to keep the nation afloat.

Because every bubble is its own beast, “a rules-based approach to bubbles is likely to be ineffective,” Dudley warned. Instead, talking and regulation appear best suited to the task at hand. “Use of the bully pulpit and macro-prudential tools, such as rules limiting loan-to-value ratios or leverage, are likely to prove superior to monetary policy,” Dudley said.
fed  bubble  asset  fiscal  monetary  policy  property  housing  china  realestate  FOMC  interestrate  usa  regulation  reform  ratio  leverage  loan 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Maturity Wall Shrinks $196 Billion in 15 Months: Credit Markets - Bloomberg.com
Last year’s recovery in credit markets prompted $239.3 billion of speculative-grade bond sales, reducing chances that debt-laden companies would be trapped as their securities matured. The 12-month global default rate for junk debt fell to 9.9 percent in the first quarter from 13 percent at the end of 2009 and will drop to 2.4 percent a year from now, New York- based Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.

“The openness of the high-yield bond market has been the major force here,” said Gautam Kakodkar, a New York-based credit strategist at Barclays Plc. “What we’ve seen so far is an incredible flow of money to high-yield bonds and loans, creating a lot of pent up demand.”

Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds rather than government debt was 146 basis points yesterday, the lowest since November 2007, the Merrill Global Broad Market Corporate Index shows. Yields averaged 4.013 percent, the lowest since March 30.
credticrunch  credit  market  leverage  household  companies  corporations  usa  2010  debt  deleveraging  loan  creditcrisis  creditcrunch 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Op-Ed Columnist - Good and Boring - NYTimes.com
Above all, Canada’s experience seems to support those who say that the way to keep banking safe is to keep it boring — that is, to limit the extent to which banks can take on risk. The United States used to have a boring banking system, but Reagan-era deregulation made things dangerously interesting. Canada, by contrast, has maintained a happy tedium.

So there’s a good chance that we’ll do nothing, or nothing much, to prevent future banking crises. But it won’t be because we don’t know what to do: we’ve got a clear example of how to keep banking safe sitting right next door.
canada  CFPA  reform  regulation  finance  banking  subprime  history  lesson  toobigtofail  leverage 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
Bank Size and the Severity of Financial Shocks - CBS MoneyWatch.com
We cannot guarantee that regulation of the financial sector will prevent all shocks. Capping bank size can help to limit the extent to which a shock is magnified if one does occur, and thus limit its ability to do damage.
subprime  regulation  CFPA  reform  usa  VolckerRule  paulvolcker  paulkrugman  leverage  banking  financialmarket  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  toobigtofail  Canada  2010 
february 2010 by asterisk2a

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