asterisk2a + inventory   6

On The Ever Increasing Inconsistencies In Reported Economic Data | zero hedge
One can easily draw the conclusion from the data that we have dodged a bullet. But that does not mean we are out of the woods. Employment is a coincident indicator. Leading indicators, such as the ECRI, continue to deteriorate and to levels still consistent with nontrivial double-dip risks. Keep this in mind — private payrolls came in at +97,000 in November 2007 and the “Great Recession” began the next month. In other words, the +67,000 tally we saw today basically tells you nothing about how the pace of economic activity is going to unfold as we move into the fall.
economics  NBER  economic  forecast  outlook  greatrecession  recession  USA  unemployment  indicators  inventory  2010  2011  double-dip 
september 2010 by asterisk2a
PIMCO Is Long CAD, AUD And CNY; Short EUR, GBP And JPY, And Other Disclosures By Paul McCulley | zero hedge
Q: What structural headwinds stand in the way of recovery in the U.S.?
McCulley: We believe the U.S. is in the second stage of a three-stage recovery. The economy was first propped up by policy response – low interest rates and fiscal stimulus. Currently, we are moving from the dark to the sunny side of the inventory cycle. The final stage – job creation, private income creation and self-sustaining demand growth – has yet to materialize, due to headwinds of deleveraging and de-risking.

We like to use the analogy of the three-stage-rocket; we are waiting for the thrust from that third rocket. There’s a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the hand-off from stimulus and inventories to job creation, and that is reflected in the Federal Reserve’s continued exceptionally low interest rate policy.
We believe the severe austerity measures brought on by the fiscal problems in the periphery countries, such as Greece and Spain, will lead to a chronic shortfall of Euroland-wide aggregate demand
recovery  usa  2010  inventory  greatrecession  QE  MBS  treasuries  Fed  monetary  policy  greece  spain  bailout  ECB  demand  economics  richardkoo  deflation  inflation  output-gap  china  currency  yuan  dollar  politics  timgeithner 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
G.D.P. Growth Revised Down for 4th Quarter -
The roaring growth rate in the fourth quarter was largely the result of a slowdown in how quickly businesses slashed stockpiles. Inventories remained well stocked in the fourth quarter, contributing more than 3 percent to gross domestic product.

Economists do not expect the restocking of inventories to contribute as much to future growth. Forecasts call for the economy to grow at an annual rate of 2 to 3 percent in the first quarter of 2010 — far short of the levels needed to significantly reduce the jobless rate, which stands at 9.7 percent.
gdp  usa  2009  greatrecession  recovery  stimulus  inventory  growth  unemployment  2010  outlook 
march 2010 by asterisk2a
Op-Ed Columnist - That 1937 Feeling -
What’s left? A boom in business investment would be really helpful right now. But it’s hard to see where such a boom would come from: industry is awash in excess capacity, and commercial rents are plunging in the face of a huge oversupply of office space.
2010  realestate  stimulus  recovery  recession  paulkrugman  greatdepression  inventory  economics  fed  exitstrategy 
january 2010 by asterisk2a

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