asterisk2a + interestrate   35

The real truth about the 2008 financial crisis | Brian S. Wesbury | TEDxCountyLineRoad - YouTube
bankers are greedy & excess speculation, is the story. Fed controls short-term interest rate through interest rate setting/Fed meetings based on fundy of American economy, // NIRP (greenspan put) post, distorts market, decision makers decisions. housing bubble w help of NIRP after & home-ownership campaign in bush years (fiscal stimulus/subsidies) 2 push that "asset." Not "home" to live in. // banks got too big to fail (their balance sheet/lending book) as liabilities (toxic assets - real downside unknown (due to complexity and day to day changes during crisis years), like CDO/CDS etc) overtook book, overall, value. Banking being actually insolvent, but how insolvent one doesn't know. Thus bad bank idea. ACCOUNTING. // Paul Volker raised rates ... was able, because USA (private household, banks, corporates) were not in a balance sheet recession. Problem was endogenous. // Deregulation + Lax accounting contributed to GFC greatly, unable to value banks books.
GFC  economic  history  fractional  reserve  banking  financial  crisis  monetary  theory  systemicrisk  Greenspan-Put  NIRP  ZIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  interestrate  reflation  reflate  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  leverage  alangreenspan  greenspan  Ben  Bernanke  benbernanke  distortion  housing  market  accounting  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  financial  market  financial  incentive  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  TARP  subprime  QE  stresstest  timgeithner  henrypaulson  economic  model  economic  damage  macroeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  history  paulvolcker  complexity  incomplete  information  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  confidence  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  mark-to-market  Janet  Yellen 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
UK's inflation rate falls to 0% - BBC News >> Carney: Current account deficit is a risk highlighted by FPC. UK is relying on the kindness of strangers to finance current account deficit. Household borrowing isn't driving the deficit Tighter fiscal policy is needed. Tighter macroeconomic policy is needed also. Deficit highlights importance of maintaining the attractiveness of the UK for foreign investment // &! - BOE's Miles doesn't see secular stagnation in the UK [...] Carney - Health of the financial system is likely to boost productivity [really?] [...] McCafferty: Low income jobs have kept productivity low &! - Bank is looking at the household sensitivity to rate rises [ mortgage bubble will prevent BOE to raise rates faster as demand stokes as more disposable income is spend on serving interest payments thus depressing GDP growth bc 70% of it is consumer spending ] &!
current  account  deficit  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  fairness  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  George  Osborne  productivity  output  gap  industrial  policy  STEM  Higher  Education  added  value  fiscal  policy  Public  infrastructure  investment  recovery  economic  history  competitiveness  competitive  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  borderless  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  zombie  banks  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  labour  economics  skills  gap  policy  vocational  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  squeezed  middle  class  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  household  debt  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  underemployed  self-employment  employability  part-time  mortgage  market  BOE  2015  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  Manufacturing  fiscal  stimulus  Taper  USA  negative  real  interest  rate  interestrate  debt  servicing  interest  payment  consumer  debt 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Regional Fed chiefs 'a drag' on Bernanke policy: Rep. Frank - YouTube
Why when you are not under a 'electorate' ... stupid.

Sept. 15 - U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, says regional fed Presidents often dissent, favoring high interest rates, and are "a drag" on Bernanke's ability to help the U.S. economy.

remove dissenters, remove plurality
- giving even more wrong medicine to the economy, and global economy
- Fed can not better employment, stupid.
barneyfrank  Fed  benbernanke  monetary  policy  error  folly  FOMC  inflation  interestrate  unemployment  politics  2011  mandate  dual-mandate 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
UK interest rates 'will not rise until 2013' - BNP Paribas - Telegraph
the Bank of England will achieve little by raising rates from their record 0.5pc low in a bid to rein in the pace of price rises, they argued.
“We do not believe the Bank of England will raise rates this year or next,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, global head of market economics at BNP Paribas. “There is no point in hiking rates to slow the economy — it’s too slow already and fiscal consolidation will stop it from overheating.“The only reason for a rate hike is to keep inflation expectations and wage rises down. [But] unemployment is already subduing wages.”Mr Mortimer-Lee holds that one-off shocks — rises in the global cost of oil and food, a fall in the pound and the recent rise in VAT — explain away much of the UK’s inflation problem. That should mean CPI inflation will fall quickly next year as these factors ebb away, ending 2012 around the 2pc target.
BOE  ZIRP  monetary  policy  2011  inflation  interestrate  UK  economy  growth  outlook  forecast 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Industry pleads with Bank of England not to raise rates this week - Business News, Business - The Independent
- austerity to bite this year
- 2nd round effect (price wage spiral) not evident
- to hike now would hit private, public, debt and mortgage holders 
- industry warns, don't hike rates, wait till end of 2011
infaltion  BOE  interestrate  ZIRP  2011  UK  economy  recovery  fiscal  monetary  policy  austerity 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Number of the Week: Euro Zone Debt Is Coming Due - Real Time Economics - WSJ
As investors fret about European banks’ exposures to Greece and other financially troubled countries, those banks’ borrowing costs are rising sharply. That wouldn’t be a problem if they didn’t need to borrow, but as it happens they need to borrow quite a lot: This year and next, some $1.7 trillion in euro-area bank debt will come due, far more than among banks in the U.S., the U.K. or elsewhere.

If banks are forced to renew those borrowings at high interest rates, the resulting debt-service costs will make it still more difficult for them to earn their way out of their troubles. If they choose not to refinance, they’ll have to sell assets and cut back on lending — anathema to European economies still struggling to recover.
debt  2010  2011  2012  europe  uk  usa  banks  banking  bank  sovereign  interestrate 
july 2010 by asterisk2a
The Endless Bear Market? | zero hedge
I had lunch with a fixed income manager and we talked markets. "The market wants more quantitative easing," he said. I told him "sure but Trichet said the ECB does not engage in quantitative easing". We both chuckled.

I told him in a zero interest policy world (ZIRP), the only way to stimulate your economy is through your exchange rate. "That's why quantitative easing is bearish for the euro". He agreed with me that the euro is heading towards parity.

On specific "conviction trades", he told me he's short Canadian Real Return Bonds, feeling that inflation expectations will wane and real rates will rise once the Bank of Canada raises interests rates in June or July. "Fundamentals are strong in Canada and inflation is not an issue".
bearmarket  bear  recession  usa  double-dip  greatrecession  canada  economy  interestrate  ZIRP  QE  EMU  trichet  ECB 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Bernanke Faces Disinflation as CPI Growth Slows - Bloomberg
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge -- the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy -- rose at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace since records began in 1959, according to an April 30 Commerce Department report.

The employment malaise is depressing wages. The unit cost of labor, or ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity, fell at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2010, according to the Labor Department. That followed declines of 7.6 percent in the third quarter of 2009, the steepest in more than 60 years, and 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter. With labor costs falling, firms can maintain profit margins without increasing prices.
A falling inflation rate also increases real interest rates, effectively tightening monetary policy, he said.
deflation  inflation  usa  unemployment  2010  may  greatrecession  recovery  Fed  benbernanke  moneysupply  M3  M2  interestrate 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Losing faith in the euro zone? | Reuters
Markets are in what AXA Investment Managers calls "panic mode," resulting in the European bond market being drained of liquidity and with some investors forced to sell because of sovereign debt downgrades.

And longer-term, the landscape has been changed by the crisis.
creditcrisis  bonds  gilts  EMU  greece  PIIGS  bailout  Germany  may  2010  liquidity  interestrate  unintended  consequences  domino  transmission  ripple  effect 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
YouTube - Buffet Cannot Escape Credit Pinch; California Foreclosure; Morgan Stanley Hires SocGen's Francois; Google Working On Opening
As credit becomes more expensive
les future investments will be made
maybe better allocation
butt gap to emerging countries narrows
creditcrisis  warrenbuffet  interestrate  interest  sovereign  debt  unintended  consequences  2009  2010  2011  2012 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Fed’s Dudley Calls for Action on Bubbles - Real Time Economics - WSJ
Dudley’s view on asset bubbles comes as part of a broader re-evaluation of financial market bubbles by central bank officials. The shift in thinking is directly tied to events of recent years, where a huge run up in housing prices defended by most in markets ruptured, leading to the worst financial crisis and economic downturn since The Great Depression. The Fed, along with the Treasury, was forced into a broad and unprecedented range of actions to keep the nation afloat.

Because every bubble is its own beast, “a rules-based approach to bubbles is likely to be ineffective,” Dudley warned. Instead, talking and regulation appear best suited to the task at hand. “Use of the bully pulpit and macro-prudential tools, such as rules limiting loan-to-value ratios or leverage, are likely to prove superior to monetary policy,” Dudley said.
fed  bubble  asset  fiscal  monetary  policy  property  housing  china  realestate  FOMC  interestrate  usa  regulation  reform  ratio  leverage  loan 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Economist Warns of Public Bubble - Real Time Economics - WSJ
The U.S. economy has traded a public bubble for a private one, according to this forecast by California forecasting firm Beacon Economics.

The firm’s stance is that the $787 billion federal stimulus package and the Federal Reserve’s near-zero interest rates have propped up the economy but will prove unsustainable and are actually exacerbating some of the imbalances that led to the recession. “The nation seems to be trading in its private bubble for a public one, swapping one set of unsustainable economic drivers for another,” the report said.
bubble  public  debt  deficit  budget  usa  2010  outlook  forecast  benbernanke  interestrate  private  treasuries  stimulus  housing  TARP  toxicassets  losses  accounting  property  inflation  savings  consumption  package  greatrecession  recovery  double-dip  recession  deflation  richardkoo  KennethRogoff 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Bernanke Speaks: Expect Deficit Warnings - Real Time Economics - WSJ
As he restarts this campaign, he is likely to go beyond the dry mechanics of monetary policy and the Fed’s exit from market rescue programs. One issue on his agenda for the days ahead: Immense government budget deficits.

Mr. Bernanke has warned lawmakers in recent hearings at the House and Senate that U.S. deficits aren’t sustainable. Formulating a credible plan to gradually shrink them over time, he has noted, could help the economy now by bringing down long-term interest rates.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have risen to nearly 4% from under 3.25% in late November, in part because investors worry about the enormity of debt the government is selling to the public. That rise in rates doesn’t help the Fed, which is trying to keep interest rates low to spur a recovery.
benbernanke  fiscal  policy  interestrate  long-term  outlook  usa  deficit  budget  debt  government  public  treasuries  consequences  unintended 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Secondary Sources: Taxes, Government Debt, Regional Fed Banks - Real Time Economics - WSJ
”So can we hope for a nice, painless, expansionary fiscal consolidation over the next decades? Not obvious. There are several reasons why those experiences might not be easily replicated this time: - In some countries, government spending levels have come down relative to where they were in the 80s or 90s. More so in the US where government spending is low relative to other (European) advanced economies. - Some of the expansionary fiscal consolidations benefited from falling interest rates. As an example, Belgium reduced government debt by close to 40 percentage points in between 1996 and 2006 but most if not all of the decrease was linked to falling interest rates on government debt. interest rates --- go up. - This time, the consolidation needs to take care of the past (the accumulated level of debt) and the future (the fact that projected deficits given current policies will be very large). The adjustment is larger than what was needed in some of those previous expansion.”
debt  deficit  usa  2010  outlook  interestrate  budget  fiscal  policy 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Bernanke on Deficits: In Long Run, We’re All on Social Security, Medicare - Real Time Economics - WSJ
The economist John Maynard Keynes said that in the long run, we are all dead. If he were around today he might say that, in the long run, we are all on Social Security and Medicare. That brings me to two interrelated economic challenges our nation faces: meeting the economic needs of an aging population and regaining fiscal sustainability. The U.S. population will change significantly in coming decades with the combined effect of the decline in fertility rates following the baby boom and increasing longevity. As our population ages, the ratio of working-age Americans to older Americans will fall, which could hold back the longrun prospects for living standards in our country. The aging of the population also will have a major impact on the federal budget, most dramatically on the Social Security and Medicare programs, particularly if the cost of health care continues to rise at its historical rate. Thus, we must begin now to prepare for this coming demographic transition.
benbernanke  Fed  deficit  bubble  budget  demographics  usa  babyboomers  medicare  socialsecurity  2010  fiscal  policy  HerbStein  outlook  aging  population  Fertility  living  standards  taxation  output-gap  interestrate  stagnation 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Lobbying for More Time
Given these circumstances, it might be that the Fed must keep this "extended period" language in their lexicon until just before raising interest rates. To envision this, imagine how investors will react once this language is dropped.

While investors are playing the same game — make no mistake, they are — they will interpret the dropping of this language to mean interest rate hikes are on the way very soon. This will cause them to trade out of fixed income securities, driving market-based yields upward and immediately tightening credit on term borrowers.

The Fed will have tightened simply by dropping the phrase "extended period" and without actually increasing any interest rates.

Realizing that simply dropping this language creates a very real and effectual tightening itself, the Fed will wait until the underlying economy begins to grow and potential perceived inflation occurs before even changing this language. ....
Fed  interestrate  2010  FDIC  usa  insurance 
march 2010 by asterisk2a
Trichet Phases Out Some Tools, Opposes IMF Greek Aid (Update2) -
The ECB is trying to mop up excessive liquidity in financial markets without spooking investors concerned that Greece’s record budget deficit will undermine the euro region’s recovery. European Union leaders are resisting putting Greece in the hands of the IMF, concerned that recourse to outside help would expose the EU’s inability to get its own house in order.

“One reason for the euro’s slide is the ECB’s decision to prolong its exit, implying rates will stay lower for longer,” said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Ltd. in London. “But markets are also nervous about Greece.”
ECB  IMF  greece  trichet  exitstrategy  interestrate 
march 2010 by asterisk2a
When will the Fed raise interest rates? | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
The primary distinction is that recent estimated reaction functions emphasise the fact that the Fed responds strongly to output growth, while the traditional Taylor rule is expressed in terms of the output gap – the deviation of real GDP from potential GDP. This often unnoticed distinction matters significantly for the timing of interest rate decisions because the output gap evolves slowly while the growth rate of GDP changes much more rapidly.
exitstrategy  fed  interestrate  ZIRP  rates  interest  bubble  monetray  taylor-rule  paulkrugman  output-gap  GDP  growth  USA 
march 2010 by asterisk2a
Euro Zone Grapples With Debt Crisis -
Even the staunchest optimists in Brussels and Frankfurt see a rocky process, with rating firms poised for more downgrades and bond markets meting out daily judgment

Greece and Spain saw their ratings downgraded. Ireland and Portugal have been warned they could be next. Even broader downgrades threaten if other European governments don't shape up.

Budget deficits for the region as whole in 2009 swelled to 6.4% of gross domestic product from 2% the year before. The EU forecast sees that gap widening to nearly 7% in 2010 before the worst is over.

By contrast, Germany and France will increase spending to add fresh fiscal stimulus in 2010, in France's case swelling its budget gap to more than 8% of GDP next year, according to EU projections. The concern in Berlin and Paris is that rising unemployment, a lagging indicator that continues to rise in the early stages of recovery, will do enough to limit domestic demand without the governments also turning off the taps too early.
debt  europe  euro  recession  recovery  2010  2011  bubble  crisis  poland  Portugal  spain  ireland  uk  rating  greece  Brussels  europeanunion  ECB  interestrate  EuropeanCommission 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
Fed Says Economy Improving, Though Slowly -
The committee said that economic activity, including household spending, had continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the job market was slowing. Improvements in the financial markets have also become “more supportive of growth,” the statement said.

--- unemployment still doesn't make a move for economic growth ---

“Though we have begun to see some improvement in economic activity, we still have some way to go before we can be assured that the recovery will be self-sustaining,” Mr. Bernanke said in a speech at the Economic Club of Washington last week.
fed  interestrate  ZIRP  unemployment  USA  2009  2010  recession  recovery  benbernanke 
december 2009 by asterisk2a
Morgan Stanley fears UK sovereign debt crisis in 2010 - Telegraph
While the report – “Tougher Times in 2010” – is not linked to the Dubai debacle, it is a reminder that countries merely bought time during the crisis by resorting to fiscal stimulus and shunting private losses onto public books. The rescues – though necessary – have not resolved the underlying debt problem. They have storied up a second set of difficulties by degrading sovereign debt across much of the world.

The UK failed to put aside money in the fat years to offset this time-honoured fiscal cycle. It ran a budget deficit of 3pc of GPD at the peak of the boom when prudent countries such as Finland and even Spain were running a surplus of over 2pc.

“We need to raise VAT to 20pc and make seriously dramatic cuts in services that go beyond anything that Alistair Darling or David Cameron are talking about. Nobody seems to have the courage to face up to this,” said Mr Buik.
sovereign  debt  crisis  G10  G20  europe  greece  iceland  dubai  uk  2009  2010  MorganStanley  report  VAT  taxes  rating  ratingagencies  interestrate  double-dip  recession  recovery  GDP 
december 2009 by asterisk2a
On the sovereign debt crisis and the debt servicing cost mentality
In my view, economic stimulus has been warranted in order stabilize the financial system and prevent economic collapse. However, the price of that stimulus is unsustainably high increases in government debt — in a world in which private sector debt is already critically high. I see the sovereign debt problem as critical, especially in Europe. The sooner we abandon a debt servicing cost mentality, the more likely we are to face up to this challenge.
debt  europe  public  private  double-dip  stimulus  government  sovereign  crisis  dubai  greece  uk  iceland  bubble  interestrate  housing  housemarket 
december 2009 by asterisk2a
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Fed sees risks in low rates policy
Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns that near-zero interest rates could fuel “excessive risk-taking in financial markets” but believe the possibility is “relatively low,” according to minutes from the Fed’s November meeting. China and Germany warned this month that the weak dollar and the Fed’s policy to keep US interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period” could lead to a new speculative bubble. The minutes show that the policy-setting FOMC already had discussed this risk.
ZIRP  interestrate  dollar  bubble  2009  2010  carrytrade 
november 2009 by asterisk2a
Is the Fed Creating New Bubbles? - BusinessWeek
As critics see it, the Fed helped inflate the tech and housing markets over the past decade and is setting up the global economy for another doozy with its near-zero short-term interest rates. Global investors can borrow dollars cheaply and invest the borrowed funds in assets ranging from Indonesian stocks to copper futures contracts, a strategy known as a carry trade. During Obama's recent Asian swing, China Banking Regulatory Commission Chairman Liu Mingkang warned that U.S. monetary policy is creating "new, real, and insurmountable risks to the recovery of the global economy, especially emerging-market economies." Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang issued similar warnings.
fed  benbernanke  bubble  assets  asset  interestrate  ZIRP  usa  carrytrade  history  dollar 
november 2009 by asterisk2a | Roubinis Warnung: Die Fed sorgt für eine neue Monsterblase
Krugman wanted another bubble to get out of the recession 10k dow is another bubble
--- when this bubble bricks we have another bubble
gov bonds.
fed  benbernanke  NourielRoubini  bubble  2009  interestrate 
november 2009 by asterisk2a | Economists' Forum | Zero interest rate policy: Treatment may be as expensive as the crisis
What are the prospects of exiting ZIRP? The Fed has recognised the need to exit ZIRP. In a recent speech, Kevin Warsh, governor of the Federal Reserve System said: “In my view, if policymakers insist on waiting until the level of real activity has plainly and substantially returned to normal - and the economy has returned to self-sustaining trend growth - they will almost certainly have waited too long. A complication is the large volume of banking system reserves created by the non-traditional policy responses. There is a risk, of much debated magnitude, that the unusually high level of reserves, along with substantial liquid assets of the banking system, could fuel an unanticipated, excessive surge in lending.”

We got into the current crisis because national policies have externalities that do not add up to a collective global good. The world needs to exit ZIRP together, because first movers are likely to pay higher costs in terms of large capital flows. ZIRP liquidity trap.
liquidity-trap  japan  lostdecade  USA  2009  fed  ECB  uk  BOE  interestrate  monetary  policy  ZIRP  zero-interest-rate-policy 
october 2009 by asterisk2a
Roubini Warns of ‘Significant Amount of Froth’ in Markets - Real Time Economics - WSJ
“You cannot achieve two goals with one instrument,” he said, meaning that both stimulating the economy and fighting an asset-price bubble cannot be simultaneously accomplished through the federal-funds rate.
recession  recovery  USA  NourielRoubini  2009  stockmarket  rally  bubble  interestrate 
october 2009 by asterisk2a

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