asterisk2a + incomplete   31

Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  Party  Round  SPV  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  B  Round  A  Round  growth  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  2015  cost  of  living  credit  bubble  cost  of  entry  aspirational  leverage  margin  trading  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  Fed  unintended  consequences  burn  rate  runway  ECB  Mutual  Fund  unknown  unkown  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  economic  growth  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  financial  financial  repression  western  world  Developing  BRIC  emerging  complexity  incomplete  information 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Greenspan: Be Afraid of Pending Bubble in Bond Market - Bloomberg Business
what is the new normal interest rate? // 7min long bloom.bg/1gteMeO - UK and USA productivity (levels at rate of zero growth) and output gap, capital investment inadequate - into unproductive investment bc of hunt for yield, bc of outlook of secular stagnation for western world and structural impediments, imbalances, and faultlines, and also because of fiscal and political uncertainty, and demographic bubble and ageing population in western world. future customers/consumers are not in western world, they are to be found right now in the developing world and frontier markets. // we are currently in an environment where we don't know what the new normal interest rate is, because of distortions and incomplete information:
Taber  bond  bubble  2015  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  recovery  globalisation  globalization  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  competition  competitive  competitiveness  borderless  flat  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  technological  progress  creative  destruction  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  STEM  developed  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  Group  behaviour  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  financial  incentive  incentive  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  incomplete  information  complexity  OPEC  Europe 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The real truth about the 2008 financial crisis | Brian S. Wesbury | TEDxCountyLineRoad - YouTube
bankers are greedy & excess speculation, is the story. Fed controls short-term interest rate through interest rate setting/Fed meetings based on fundy of American economy, // NIRP (greenspan put) post dot.com, distorts market, decision makers decisions. housing bubble w help of NIRP after dot.com & home-ownership campaign in bush years (fiscal stimulus/subsidies) 2 push that "asset." Not "home" to live in. // banks got too big to fail (their balance sheet/lending book) as liabilities (toxic assets - real downside unknown (due to complexity and day to day changes during crisis years), like CDO/CDS etc) overtook book, overall, value. Banking being actually insolvent, but how insolvent one doesn't know. Thus bad bank idea. ACCOUNTING. // Paul Volker raised rates ... was able, because USA (private household, banks, corporates) were not in a balance sheet recession. Problem was endogenous. // Deregulation + Lax accounting contributed to GFC greatly, unable to value banks books.
GFC  economic  history  fractional  reserve  banking  financial  crisis  monetary  theory  systemicrisk  Greenspan-Put  NIRP  ZIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  interestrate  dot.com  reflation  reflate  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  leverage  alangreenspan  greenspan  Ben  Bernanke  benbernanke  distortion  housing  market  accounting  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  financial  market  financial  incentive  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  TARP  subprime  QE  stresstest  timgeithner  henrypaulson  economic  model  economic  damage  macroeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  history  paulvolcker  complexity  incomplete  information  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  confidence  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  mark-to-market  Janet  Yellen 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet.org  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The Truth About The Global Warming Pause - YouTube
ocean as energy storage (heat), catches and releases it with time delay. changing trade winds (thus also changing jet stream positioning?), increases them when ocean releases energy. [...] new models suggest that we are standing before another energy release from (pacific) ocean and thus a pop in temperatures after +decade of pause from rising air temperature. [ science can only observe and measure what is measurable. we can not run tests based on our assumptions and past experiences on our climate. we can only test with limited/basic climate models in computers based on the complexity scientists have unearthed by observing (putting the complex puzzle together, one item at a time) ] // climate gate - bit.ly/1eUJwRO &! bit.ly/1GIAYHI &! Climategate, the sequel: How we are STILL being tricked with flawed data on global warming - bit.ly/1Lyynqg // &! bit.ly/1IHamrO //
El  Nino  climate  change  climate  science  climate  crisis  climate  system  complexity  unknown  unkown  incomplete  information  extreme  weather  weather  extreme  jet  stream  ocean  warming  ocean  current  climate  gate  climate  model  rising  sea  levels  science  observation 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF heads must roll over shameful Greek failings - Telegraph
Whatever the eventual outcome of the Greek debt talks, there are a number of judgments can already be made; one is that a large part of the blame for this ever deepening debacle lies at the doors of the International Monetary Fund, which from the very beginning has had both its priorities and its analysis of the situation hopelessly wrong. [...] By any standards, however, the IMF’s entanglement with the eurozone crisis is a whopper of a screw-up. Nor is it something in which the IMF should have got involved in the first place. Europe, one of the richest regions in the world, should have been left to sort out its own affairs. [...] This is more particularly the case as the Greek debt crisis is almost entirely one of the eurozone’s own making. And yet unforgivably, Greece is now the IMF’s biggest bailout ever – $35bn for a population of just 11 million. [ after all it was an EU (&international) bank bailout through the backdoor. at a times where banks were not able to cope ]
IMF  ChristineLagarde  Grexit  austerity  economic  history  Leadership  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  ECB  Troika  MarioDraghi  European  Union  monetary  Europe  GFC  democracy  Career  Politicians  unintended  consequences  incomplete  information  unknown  unkown  No  Representation  fairness  Great  Depression  lost  decade  lost  generation  PIGS  bailout  EFSF  haircut  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Charlie Rose Brain Series: Alzheimers / Dementia | charlierose.com
"It's an epidemic come later life [60 year old and forward; aggressive rise. 50% of 90 year old's affected]."&! charlierose.com/watch/60085855 - Parkinson's Disease and Huntington's Disease // &! http://nutritionfacts.org/?s=alzheimer &! http://nutritionfacts.org/?s=dementia &! http://nutritionfacts.org/?s=Parkinson << (1) excess animal protein. [dose dependent (neuro)toxin/glycotoxin - nutritionfacts.org/video/reducing-glycotoxin-intake-to-prevent-alzheimers/ &! nutritionfacts.org/video/avoiding-a-sugary-grave/ ] Evidence is clear that reduction [to zero] of any animal product in diet reduces risk to die with and of dementia/alzheimers. But current research is focused on putting the horse back in the barn ('manage it'), when it's already escaped and lost all its four legs. That is how crazy this is what current medical profession is doing. And policy makers, influences by food industry lobby listed on Wall Street. Defending their interest in selling processed, fast and junk food.
Alzheimer  dementia  cognition  cognitive  funtion  neurology  neurobiology  neuroscience  brain  western  world  sick  population  sedentary  lifestyle  western  lifestyle  Psychiatry  Standard  American  Diet  pattern  western  public  health  public  health  policy  premature  ageing  demographic  bubble  medical  profession  medical  research  medical  advances  omnivore  chronic  diseases  chronic  low-grade  inflammation  complexity  incomplete  information  quality  of  life  epigenetics  endotoxin  toxic  toxin 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
[PreMoney MIAMI] Upfront Ventures, Mark Suster, "Venture Outlook 2015 - Goldrush or Fool's Gold" - YouTube
(1) Change from Sales Funnel to Funnel of Intent on Mobile and Social Media. Lower Marketing/Early user acquisition cost at scale. And tap to credit cards to with one click through third party Platforms. And also Open Source Software Stacks and buying 'by time' the hardware stack on Google, AWS or Azure is paradigm shift. Results also in noise one has to break through first - raising the bar (by user choice) for everyone. (2) min10 - Value Creation held inside Private Market through growth & late-stage investing instead of IPO with single-class share structure with wobbily business numbers 'help you god that you aren't out 24m later' because of impatient Wall Street. (3) min14 Series D valuations show Private Market highest bidder wins phenomenon. But Valuations are up across the board. And with more Seed/Angel Investors, Seed Valuations are also bid up higher compared to ABC. // &! min29 youtu.be/25TxrhsXFvs - 500 Startups, Dave McClure "4 Years of Moneyball - What Have We Learned"
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  A  Round  growth  Venture  Capital  Sales  Funnel  Funnel  of  Intent  mobile  first  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  Social  Media  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  secular  stagnation  productive  investment  Private  Market  Platform  TOS  2000  dot.com  bubble  2008  IPO  Wall  Street  single-class  share  structure  SPV  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  late-stage  funding  Unicorn  seedround  seedfunding  angelinvestor  angel-list  Angel  Investor  angelinvestors  incomplete  information  complexity  unintended  consequences  Dave  McClure  Mark  Suster  UpFront  Ventures  500  Start-ups  paradigm  shift 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Solving the productivity puzzle - BBC News
UK productivity growth (as measured by output per hour worked) has been exceptionally weak since 2008. Productivity growth has actually been weak across the developed economies since the Great Recession but especially so in the UK. Beyond those facts though, there is little agreement. The talk is instead of a "productivity puzzle": solving that puzzle is the key to both a lower government deficit and to higher living standards. [...] [I]t could be that the nature of Britain's recovery explains the low productivity growth. Rather than lower productivity leading to lower real wages (as companies cannot afford to increase pay), it may be that lower real wages have encouraged firms to hire workers rather than investing in new equipment. This could have lowered productivity. [...] Much of it feels more traditionally "sociological" than "economic". // 2nd Industrial Revolution - Software is Eating the World, Self-Employment, contractors, Zero Hour Contracts, etc. &! bit.ly/1aRi7Bw
productivity  output  gap  recovery  GFC  Western  World  UK  Service  Sector  Jobs  Services  Industry  Share  Economy  STEM  Niedriglohnsektor  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  policy  Robotics  deflationary  secular  stagnation  OECD  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  business  investment  business  confidence  austerity  fiscal  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  algorithm  automation  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  borderless  flat  globalisation  globalization  competitive  Europe  USA  China  Asia  BRIC  Russia  Latin  America  digital  precarious  work  working  poor  poverty  squeezed  middle  class  coldprogression  cold  progression  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Super  Rich  productive  investment  1%  speculative  bubbles  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  property  bubble  demographic  bubble  complexity  incomplete  information  lost  decade  lost  generation  Abenomics  Japan  uncertainty  distrust  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  trust  trustagent  policy  folly  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  academia  sociology  sentiment  consumer  confidence  fear  anxiety  status  anxiety  crony  capitalism  social  co 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
[PreMoney MIAMI] 500 Startups, Dave McClure "4 Years of Moneyball - What Have We Learned" - YouTube
Angel Investors/Seed and maybe even A Round is about jumping on and doubling down on companies that do well, others don't know about. It's information arbitrage. Wall Street Services Cottage Industry aka Economic Forecaster and Stock Pickers make their money with supposed information arbitrage. But it's just a cottage industry. ... Where Seed/Angel Investors do hustle, network, keep things private, sharing of non-public information with their best buddy and co-investor. // min 34 talks about Silicon Valley Ecosystem. (1) Optimism and Believe. German culture about fear of failure does not support it well in public. (2) supporting structures (3) capital at every stage.
500  Start-ups  Dave  McClure  Seed  Round  Venture  Capital  information  arbitrage  Private  Market  incomplete  information  Silicon  Valley  Angel  Investor  angel-list  Hustle  Networking  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  culture  society  Germany  failure  Leistungsdruck  ecosystem  London  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Gillmor Gang: Money for Nothing - Gillmor Gang | TechCrunch TV
min 42 // A Round is now a "post-traction" investment aka proven product & business model. A Round is an investment to scale it up, put it up a bunch of gears. // Keith Teare from chat.center (tcrn.ch/1IWFQ1X) people now doing pre-seed, seed, seed prime & bridge funding via existing investors; figuring out Product/Market fit, traction, funnel, etc. Now more than ever a hits driven business. // see also tcrn.ch/1c54UpN // Complexity of phenomenon - symptoms, causes and tangents; biases, selection bias, pattern matching, bidding up hot deals in the private market where the highest bidder will get the deal - irrationality of accepting those valuations and the founders Unicorn-status need, hunt for yield, trendy - the future, when doing 'hard things' becomes fashionable (ie Reality TV, TV Series & a shallow Channel 4's How To Be A Young Billionaire) then beware, negative yields for secure investments (bonds and corp debt), perceived 'conservative' value vs private bid up bubble potential.
Seed  Round  A  Round  traction  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  behavioral  finance  bond  bubble  bubbles  equity  bubble  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  complexity  growth  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  pattern  matching  selection  bias  confirmation  bias  bias  Unicorn  Wall  Street  Private  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  Venture  Capital  savings  glut  productive  investment  business  model  Snapchat  WhatsApp  Instagram  Slack  Uber  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Niedriglohnsektor  incomplete  information  economic  history  marginal  cost  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  Product/Market  Fit  value  creation  1000  True  Fans  Core  Product  Proposition  differentiate  differentiation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
The Potential Upside To A Technology Bubble | TechCrunch
just look at the graph, seed ang frowth round are impacted only. while a is still up a sizable 80% y/y. makes sense. // // From the article ""I am currently reading Antifragile. The premise of the book is looking at potential gains in times of disorder [R.I.P. Good Times Slide Show (2008) - http://tcrn.ch/ZBZw7u], and it’s a terrific read for those involved in startups and investing. Navigating fundamental shifts in technology and outer market forces are key characteristics of great founders. I look at the funding landscape and see a terrific environment for learning. Bubble or not there are certain things that remain true. Great founders create amazing companies and great founders will always find a way to succeed."" // 1bn valuation and the attribution of Unicorn and 'product CEO' for life of _your_ company, became a status symbol. // first lava stream of money bid-up asia and brick, now flown/flowing out and bidding up the Private Market where highest bidder wins.
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  growth  hunt  for  yield  A  Round  GFC  recession  Unicorn  symptom  burn  rate  superficial  status  anxiety  status  symbol  Private  Equity  bubble  bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  secular  stagnation  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  asset  allocation  incomplete  information  complexity  herding  bubbles  demographic  bubble  asset  bubble  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
What Etsy’s stellar debut doesn’t say about the IPO market | PandoDaily
markets so distorted [...] demand has grown strong enough investors are willing 2 overlook fact that most of tech companies IPOing still losing money. Last year 2/3 of tech companies that raised $100 million or more in IPOs went public with losses. This year, Box, GoDaddy & Etsy all received warm welcomes in public markets while awash in red ink. [bc there is so little alternative 4 actual earning any yield, money managers take on the risk anywy, bc otherwise they would look bad & get fired if they would not deploy the money. its always bad if u have 2 act in order 2 get not fired & not abel 2 say 'I will sit this 1 out.'] [day-one pop values etsy @18x revenue]. &! bit.ly/1HyfxNW [CEO Dickerson] & tcrn.ch/1G0ybi5 >> its abt shareholder value creation going forward >> bloom.bg/1E0H9br >> Founder "maximizing shareholder value is "ridiculous." // Cant marry WallStreet & long-term view, internal values, true 10x better customer value creation fwrd //&! bit.ly/1b08aC3 on.recode.net/1JNUY
Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  pension  Wall  Street  hunt  for  yield  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  secular  stagnation  Western  World  IPO  Unicorn  market  Silicon  Valley  incomplete  information  complexity  bubble  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  bubbles  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  burn  rate  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  crony  capitalism  community 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
NEA Raises North Of $3B For Its New Fund | TechCrunch
I consistently hear that venture groups raising capital are oversubscribed. That directly implies that the firehose of cash fueling the venture capital and technology markets has yet to abate in any meaningful sense, if at all. The music is still playing, and at a furious pace. But with interest rates at zero and NASDAQ 5,000 back in our norm, who can be surprised? Regardless of how the technology industry apportions the risk created by that level of spend, we can feel secure in the fact that the same risk is concentrated in the private sector. This helps to protect the average person from investing in something more ephemeral than a Snapchat ad. So if it all goes to hell, it’s mostly the rich kids who will take it in the gut. Viva la tech.
hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  incomplete  information  unintended  consequences  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  Private  growth  round  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  Silicon  Valley  burn  rate  economic  history  savings  glut  productive  investment  Super  Rich  1%  Wall  Street  liquidity  trap  complexity  recovery  GFC  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  secular  stagnation  borderless  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  Software  Is  Eating  The  output  gap  Western  productivity  STEM  Robotics  automation  algorithm  AI  artificial  intelligence  marginal  cost  3D  printing  augmented  intelligence  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  service  monetary  policy  austerity  IMF  OECD  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Career  Politicians  Makers 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Inside Out London - The Great Property Race
London, one of the most expensive places on earth to live. // Inside Out London - The Great Property Race - Mark Jordan joins first-time buyers and cash-rich Chinese investors as they race to buy homes in the capital's fast, furious and often cruel market. >> London-mania, speculation, ASIAN individual investors leave flats empty & sell them again after 12-18m after much appreciation of value. Buying just based on the prospect & not one stone put down or even speculating on green fields planning permission 5 years down the road. Insane. // &! Existing owners building owners are in a Millionaire Basement Wars - bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05r86yg // Think about all that money being invested long-term into productive investments (STEM) creating current & future opportunity. Lowering the output & productivity gap of UK! Once, a high rise is finished, there are no jobs there that generate tax income from revenue/profit generation - that of a worker or company of the 21st century.
speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  London  London  Start-up  Scene  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  QE  secular  stagnation  savings  glut  incomplete  information  economic  history  liquidity  trap  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  ASIA  affordable  housing  property  bubble  UK  Betongold  Beton  Gold  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  productive  investment  macroprudential  policy  BOE  BOJ  Private  Equity  symptom  unintended  consequences  recovery  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  Makers  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  borderless  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  job  creation  research  human  progress  Philosophy  status  anxiety  superficial 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Would you rather be a real millionaire or a paper billionaire? The psychology of unicorns and the toll on Q1 returns | PandoDaily
And yet total cash going to venture backed companies was a whopping $17.7 billion– up over the $12.6 billion raised in the same period last year. But here’s the thing: Only $11.3 billion of that came from venture firms, throwing into question whether we should even still keep using the adjective “venture-backed” to describe the category. The disparity shows just how much more money is coming from non-VCs like hedge funds, private equity, mutual funds, and sovereign wealth funds, who have watched the private valuation growth of Facebook and the rest of the deca-corns and are desperately trying to get a stake in private companies before they IPO. [...] Things have gotten strange for VCs — and in turn, entrepreneurs — and the climate doesn’t seem to be improving
Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Mutual  Fund  growth  round  Venture  Capital  Silicon  Valley  Unicorn  hunt  for  yield  Sovereign  Wealth  Fund  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bubble  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Super  Cycle  savings  glut  liquidity  trap  productive  investment  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  incomplete  information  market  confirmation  bias  pattern  matching  pattern  recognition  selection  bias  bias  behavioral  finance 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Josh Kopelman drops some knowledge on all you “private IPO-loving” unicorns | PandoDaily
[some type of investors use past experiences and results (FB) for putting money into growth rounds, into unicorns late past D. Very Different than LinkedIn - which had a base and profitability at IPO and continued to grow naturally with product going forward. Or Google.] Tomasz Tunguz entitled “The Runaway Train Of Late Stage Fundraising” in which the Redpoint Ventures partner tracks what he calls the frenetic state of the private market. Among the data points used by Tunguz to make that point “that the current investment levels aren’t yet justified by the exit environment,” is one tidbit tweeted out by Kopelman: 231 companies raised more than $40 million in growth rounds in 2014, by comparison, 240 venture capital-backed IT companies have gone public in the last 10 years. [...] by taking tons of venture money and avoiding an IPO, startups (mostly who proudly tout their unicorn status and $1 billion plus valuations) are avoiding sucking out loud.
Unicorn  growth  round  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  SPV  distortion  Wall  Street  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  complexity  unintended  consequences  incomplete  information  Silicon  Valley  IPO  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  savings  glut  productive  investment  private  market  disequilibrium 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Christina: Debugging the mind - YouTube
minute 19: framing & communication & debate & using picture and picture set-up to communicate make an certain impression: same facts, different framing of problem or thing or X. language shapes thoughts. / min24 - heuristic - acting on incomplete information and uncertainty - book - Tversky and Kahnemann - "Denkfehler" ie http://www.amazon.co.uk/Die-Kunst-klaren-Denkens-Denkfehler/dp/3446426825/ // min54 - trust ur intuition less when you just made an error based on your intuition --- freezing.
confirmation  bias  recall  bias  selection  bias  sunk  cost  fallacy  sunk  cost  bias  framing  communication  advertisement  debate  neurology  neuroscience  psychology  uncertainty  incomplete  information  denkfehler  language 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Why 'secular stagnation' matters - BBC News
The question at stake is the issue of "secular stagnation", which is probably the biggest and most important controversy in macroeconomics today. This is not though a debate for the ivory tower, it's an issue with significant real world implications. [...] So what is secular stagnation? It's an idea that originated in the late 1930s with the US Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen. He worried that growth was fundamentally slowing and emphasised demographic factors (such as slowing population growth) as a driver of this. [ western world needs immigration as reproduction level is below 1, capitalism and our economics is fundy based on econ growth, but that is, on the horizon, not possible (excl inflation). what if population is stable!? ] [...] In a nutshell secular stagnation is an attempt to explain the weakness of the global recovery in advanced economies since the 2008 crisis. [ decelerating, debt overhang, balancesheet recession, sov debt crisis ] [...]
secular  stagnation  Europe  Japan  economic  history  lost  decade  global  imbalances  rebalancing  demographic  bubble  demographics  demography  immigration  western  world  economic  growth  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  stagflation  deflation  deflationary  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  austerity  full  employment  Larry  Summers  Paul  Krugman  Ben  Bernanke  savings  glut  complexity  incomplete  information  productivity  output  gap  productive  investment  unintended  consequences  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB cuts rates and launches stimulus programme
1-Day Before: http://youtu.be/_6D_xVeoIXs "ECB faces crunch on deflation threat" +++ The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures. The ECB had earlier cut its rate from 0.25% to 0.15% in June, and also became the first major central bank to introduce negative interest rates. It will also launch an asset purchase programme, which will buy debt products from banks. It is hoped this move will add liquidity to the financial system and revive lending. [...] "[A] last roll of the dice". "The ECB has now almost exhausted its ammunition for preventing the Eurozone sliding into a devastating deflationary, contractionary spiral," +++ Analysis: http://youtu.be/IErml4SmKmE "European banks – Work those ABS" +++ bit.ly/1A6pmLU - France and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity "Europe ... is threatened with lasting weak growth should the deficit rules continue to be strictly interpreted. [ BuBa demands higher wages, ECB fiscal stimulus ]."
ABS  OMT  LTRO  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  PIGS  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  IMF  Germany  BuBa  deflation  deflationary  communication  zombie  banks  confidence  trustagent  trust  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  policy  QE  bond  bubble  deleveraging  lost  decade  lost  generation  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  economic  history  debtoverhang  NPL  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  riskaversion  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  secular  stagnation  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  Career  Politicians  inflation  expectation  stagnation  Betongold  Beton  Gold  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  France  liberal  economic  reform  Stability  Pact  Italy  academics  academia  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  wage  growth  wage  inflation  fiscal  stimulus  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Sick  Man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  investment  business  investment  labor  market  reform  recovery 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
A Look Back At Yahoo’s Flickr Acquisition For Lessons Today | TechCrunch
[The Future is uncertain & Vague"] .... Flickr decided in January 2005 to take the Yahoo offer — reportedly for $35 million. There were too many compelling reasons to take the offer during what was still an uncertain time. Because it was early in the growth of tech startups after the dot-com crash, Flickr missed some of the up-tick in the market, as others sold for more when the market took off: Myspace sold to News Corp. for $580 million in July 2005 and later YouTube, which Google acquired in October 2006 for $1.65 billion in stock. “We definitely made the wrong decision in retrospect. We would’ve made 10 times [what we did]. But it’s not like I regret it,” Butterfield says. How can something be a mistake and also be completely correct? The sale left potentially 10 times more on the table. But Butterfield doesn’t regret it because he believes they made the right decision knowing what they did at the time. And he and other team members have all gone on to do well at other ventures.
Flickr  Yahoo!  M&A  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  incomplete  information  complexity  unknown  unknowns  acquisitions  acquisition  Silicon  Valley 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Stephanie Hare on the UK economy - Newsnight - YouTube
>> how many jobs have been lost regarding to banking in london and adjoining businesses ... thousands. thousands of hours of productivity gone (high charges for the hours). forever. = productivity and output gap || and how many times had osborne now moved forward expected savings and targets in time ... every year. || it will not get better as they travel (still) on the same path that leads to nowhere safe. still heading to the cliff. same direction. same speed.
secular  stagnation  flat  world  UK  living  standard  cost  of  living  wage  stagnation  minimum  wage  living  wage  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  exploitation  wages  productivity  output  gap  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  service  economy  service  industry  Services  economics  economic  history  academia  academics  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Public  knowledge  worker  workless  underemployed  employment  Politics  recovery  London  Structural  Impediments  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  Europe  GFC  greatrecession  2014  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  low-income  working  class  workforce  education  policy  White-collar  Future  of  Work  flexible  Zero  Hour  Contract  Blue-collar  behavioral  economics  corporatism  capitalism  globalisation  globalization  Debt  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  crisis  austerity  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  consumer  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  hunt  for  yield  property  bubble  housing  market  bubble  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Toff  lost  decade  lost  generation  stagnation 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Listen up, America: It’s time to start making mass transit free! - Salon.com
But where do the benefits of free ridership accrue, if not to riders themselves? To drivers, who enjoy less congested roads and free parking spaces? To local businesses, who reap the benefits of increased mobility and local spending power? To everyone, in the form of clean air? It’s not an abstract question when the bill comes due, and answering it has proven a formidable obstacle to cities, like San Francisco and Portland, that have studied the possibility of making transit free.
public  transportation  city  living  urban  planning  urbanisation  quality  of  life  frictionless  friction  Uber  service  economy  service  industry  convenience  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  courage  Career  Politicians  Leadership  Vision  congestion  charge  London  NYC  New  York  Berlin  commuting  air  pollution 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Stanford biologist warns of early stages of Earth's 6th mass extinction event
In a new review of scientific literature and analysis of data published in Science, an international team of scientists cautions that the loss and decline of animals is contributing to what appears to be the early days of the planet's sixth mass biological extinction event. [...] And while previous extinctions have been driven by natural planetary transformations or catastrophic asteroid strikes, the current die-off can be associated to human activity, a situation that the lead author Rodolfo Dirzo, a professor of biology at Stanford, designates an era of "Anthropocene defaunation." // Book http://bit.ly/M47bEd "our own downfall at our own hands. Domino's are falling." - Guardian Series: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/series/sixth-extinction || http://bit.ly/1jzy1Ol Naomi Klein: This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate
environmental  disaster  living  environment  ecological  disaster  mass  extinction  Poaching  global  warming  climate  change  air  pollution  water  pollution  ocean  warming  ocean  acidification  heavy  metal  pollution  pollution  evolution  Biodiversity  society  human  progress  human  tragedy  Anthropocene  Anthropocene  defaunation  deforestation  Amazonas  rainforest  monoculture  industrial  agriculture  Farming  unknown  unknowns  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  zoonosis  Zoonotic  Diseases  apocalypse  Elizabeth  Kolbert  human  being  humanity  climate  science  climate  system  weather  extreme  extreme  weather  drought  Wildfire  flooding  flash  floods  fossil  fuel  carbon  dioxide  carbonfootprint  carbonemission  Naomi  Klein  book  climate  crisis  Career  Politicians  Political  Governance  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  accountability  personal  values  corporatism  crony  capitalism  short-term  thinking  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Wall  Street  transparency  oversight  regulators  self-regulation  regulation  fracking  corporate  corporate  values  Consumerism  consumerist  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Die Propagandaschlacht um die Gentechnik | EXCLUSIV IM ERSTEN | ARD - YouTube
- evolution ... unbeatable, weed killers become ineffective. and propaganda to make hunger and food poverty disappear is a PR/marketing crutch. >> no evidence that GMO crop is long-term more sustainable (using expensive GMO crop and expensive GMO related crop herbicides and pesticides) than EU conventional non-GMO crop agricultural policy (still monocrop agri culture). // +++ industrial agriculture policy has to GO AWAY FROM MONOCROP!!!
Roundup  Monsanto  Protection  Act  GMO  GMO  crop  Monsanto  glyphosate  herbicide  Dogma  propaganda  communication  PR  public  relations  language  marketing  Europe  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  interest  groups  corporate  governance  corporatism  crony  capitalism  short-term  thinking  UK  Germany  Career  Politicians  transparency  accountability  ethics  governance  Political  Wall  Street  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unknowns  Industrial  Farming  agriculture  agriculture  industry  agriculture  policy  monoculture  monocrop  mono  agriculture  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  incomplete  information  sustainability  sustainable  Food  Chain  corporate  culture  public  health  policy  health  policy  Makers 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Bill Gurley schools NYU professor: Uber will be 25x bigger than you think | PandoDaily
[ + long tail use cases and cases that seem in retrospect obvious but currently are foggy (ie owning a car in the city for ppl a luxury good), car ownership deemed inefficient/waste of money; when car is used only ~5% during the day and there are clearly cheaper and if not even more convenient options of daily transportation on offer. ] Gurley, who is one of the smartest and most articulate figures in all of venture capital (and who just happens to be an early Uber investor and board member) laid out a more than 4,500-word argument for why Damodaran underestimated the Uber opportunity by no less than a factor of 25. The Benchmark Capital partner was diplomatic, apologetic even, but that made his dismantling of the professor’s reasoning no less thorough.
Blue  Ocean  Uber  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  value  creation  added  value  intangible  value  Proposition  Core  Product  Proposition  Lyft  Travis  Kalanick  Bill  Gurley  Venture  Capital  frictionless  friction  convenience  management  Product/Market  Fit  consumer  aspirational  experience  Product  Design  Vision  leadership  transportation  public  transportation  urbanisation  urban  planning  city  living  long-tail  longtail  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  hypothesis  incomplete  information  unknown  unknowns  complexity  unintended  consequences 
july 2014 by asterisk2a

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