asterisk2a + herding   9

This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News
[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  macroprudential  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  aggregate  demand  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  policy  folly  policy  error  consumer  debt  household  debt  budget  deficit  recovery  mortgage  market  credit  bubble  GFC  bank  bailout  BOE  zombie  banks  rentier  rent-seeking  Richard  Koo  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  zombie  consumer  industrial  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  herding  herd  hunt  for  yield  leverage  margin  trading  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  VAR  CDO  CDS  risk  aversion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  inequality  UK  generational  contract  lost  generation  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Masters in Business: Yale Professor Robert Shiller (Audio) by Bloomberg View
history has proven again, markets are not efficient long-term // psychology is disreputable in econ department. // cognitive dissonance - justifying X action by looking around ... / Efficient-market hypothesis is a hypothesis for a reason; "it's a half-truth" "sometimes market moves don't reflect market news." // irrational exuberance // book fooled by randomness // 24:00 eugene phama - markets are very efficient, prices reflect all the knowledge out there, just buy the index, don't try to beat the market. buy passive index // don't play poker with your life savings. << robert shiller // 30:00 look at politics science, sociology, psychology - influence markets, people. broader disciplines. economists disregard them. // finance is about manage risk! about being a productive society and progress, and not suffer from boom and bust cycle! + financing activities ie VC gov supported R&D // & gov being a support pillar for all and not picking winners, can't forecast the future!
free  market  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  efficient-market  hypothesis  complexity  human  Wall  Street  crowd  herd  herding  speculative  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  GFC  subprime  book  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  finance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  tax  rate  R&D  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  risk  pension  fund  pension  obligation  401k  public  pension  pension  scheme  pension  marginal  propensity  to  consume  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  Greed  oligarchy  self-regulation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  negative  equity  boom  &  bust  secular  stagnation  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
The Potential Upside To A Technology Bubble | TechCrunch
just look at the graph, seed ang frowth round are impacted only. while a is still up a sizable 80% y/y. makes sense. // // From the article ""I am currently reading Antifragile. The premise of the book is looking at potential gains in times of disorder [R.I.P. Good Times Slide Show (2008) - http://tcrn.ch/ZBZw7u], and it’s a terrific read for those involved in startups and investing. Navigating fundamental shifts in technology and outer market forces are key characteristics of great founders. I look at the funding landscape and see a terrific environment for learning. Bubble or not there are certain things that remain true. Great founders create amazing companies and great founders will always find a way to succeed."" // 1bn valuation and the attribution of Unicorn and 'product CEO' for life of _your_ company, became a status symbol. // first lava stream of money bid-up asia and brick, now flown/flowing out and bidding up the Private Market where highest bidder wins.
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  growth  hunt  for  yield  A  Round  GFC  recession  Unicorn  symptom  burn  rate  superficial  status  anxiety  status  symbol  Private  Equity  bubble  bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  secular  stagnation  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  Super  Rich  1%  asset  allocation  incomplete  information  complexity  herding  bubbles  demographic  bubble  asset  bubble  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
“Kid, haven’t you heard of Friendster? Forget about it.” How Jeremy Levine missed out on Facebook | PandoDaily
[5x, 100x ... the real unicorns are nearly 1000x] - “If you invested in every one of the ten next best VC investments, but you miss a Facebook or a Google, the next ten don’t add up to even one of a Facebook or a Google.” Thus is the nature of regret in the venture capitalism world. [...] “As soon as you identify the patterns of today, the patterns of tomorrow change,” Levine says. “You have to keep focused on what’s around the corner.”
Venture  Capital  pattern  matching  pattern  recognition  herding 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
The mathematical equation that caused the banks to crash | Science | The Observer
The Black-Scholes equation has its roots in mathematical physics, where quantities are infinitely divisible, time flows continuously and variables change smoothly. Such models may not be appropriate to the world of finance. Traditional mathematical economics doesn't always match reality, either, and when it fails, it fails badly. Physicists, mathematicians and economists are therefore looking for better models.

At the forefront of these efforts is complexity science, a new branch of mathematics that models the market as a collection of individuals interacting according to specified rules. These models reveal the damaging effects of the herd instinct: market traders copy other market traders. Virtually every financial crisis in the last century has been pushed over the edge by the herd instinct. It makes everything go belly-up at the same time. If engineers took that attitude, and one bridge in the world fell down, so would all the others.
herding  sociology  irrational  complexity  CDS  blackswan  economic  history  creditcrunch  greatrecession  GFC  derivatives  mathematics  Economics  Black-Scholes  Equation 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
European Debt Crisis Is Shaped by Bond Vigilantes - NYTimes.com
Disagreements among national governments have made it difficult to address the core problem, which, he said, is “not lack of liquidity, but of solvency” — that is, not a matter of providing enough cash for short-term operations, but of reducing debt ratios that are simply too high to be managed. Solving the problem anytime soon would require “haircuts” — write-downs or restructurings, in which bondholders would, in the end, have to take some losses.
sovereign  debt  PIIGS  monetary  fiscal  policy  ecb  trichet  greece  ireland  2010  response  politics  angelamerkel  EMU  EuropeanCommission  europe  herding  herd  crisis 
december 2010 by asterisk2a
Correlation Soars on S&P 500 Shares - WSJ.com
The market's flock-like behavior is one more reflection of the growing influence of investors using broad-based strategies

it is bad.

Forex sort of is couples too.
trend  trends  stockmarket  herd  herding  dysfunctional  financial  financialmarket  market 
july 2010 by asterisk2a

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