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This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News

[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.

property bubble speculative bubbles asset bubble asset allocation macroprudential policy Generationengerechtigkeit generation rent Housing Crisis social affordable distortion ZIRP NIRP QE aggregate demand Right to Buy Buy-to-Let Help to Buy Scheme Help to Save policy folly policy error consumer debt household debt budget deficit recovery mortgage market credit bubble GFC bank bailout BOE zombie banks rentier rent-seeking Richard Koo underinvestment productive investment infrastructure investment zombie consumer industrial policy economic history Mark Carney financial repression behavioral finance behavioral economics herding herd hunt for yield leverage margin trading equity bubble Gini coefficient disposable income discretionary spending VAR CDO CDS risk aversion squeezed middle class secular stagnation inequality UK generational contract lost generation constituency Tories Conservative Party nasty David Cameron George Osborne general election 2015 general election 2020 fiscal policy austerity monetary policy liquidity trap
february 2016 by asterisk2a

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The "Tourist" Investors Flooding Silicon Valley With Money Will Go Home One Day - BuzzFeed News

The tourist analogy comes from Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at the German financial company Allianz and former CEO of mutual fund giant Pimco. He fleshes out his theory of “tourist dollars” in his new book, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, describing what happens in emerging economies like Brazil and India when investors from the developed world respond to slow economies at home by seeking more profitable climates abroad. Ranjan Roy, a former emerging-market currencies trader who now runs a tech startup, wrote a Medium post this week connecting El-Erian’s “tourist” theory to the mutual fund investors that have flooded Silicon Valley with cash in recent years. The post was pretty convincing, so we decided to see if El-Erian agreed. He does. And he worries about what those tourist dollars are doing to the locals. [...] they don’t re-up [ like VC's and real Angels would do ] [...] push to stretch for return.

hunt for yield distortion speculative bubbles asset allocation Silicon Valley Party Round Angel Investor Seed Round ZIRP NIRP QE hot-money Mutual Fund growth risk capital Venture Frontier Markets emerging market credit bubble China BRIC 2015 2016 2014 Unicorn reflate reflation economic history equity bubble bond bubble property bubble asset bubble secular stagnation emerging middle class India financial repression behavioral finance behavioral economics psychology fiscal policy monetary policy austerity Richard Koo
february 2016 by asterisk2a

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Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube

- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.

equity bubble frothy distortion USA Fed ZIRP NIRP QE credit bubble BRIC BOE ECB excess reserves correction 2015 BOJ reflate reflation Abenomics hunt for yield recovery GFC Taper FOMO asset allocation capital allocation behavioral finance behavioral economics fiscal policy austerity western world developed world secular stagnation disposable income income distribution income growth low income income gap consumer confidence business confidence business investment underinvestment hot-money speculative bubbles speculative speculation currency-war currency debasement currency war property bubble Richard Koo monetary stimulus monetary policy fiat currency monetary transmission mechanism liquidity trap Pact Schuldenbremse Europe UK Japan Germany marginal propensity to consume consumer debt household debt job creation job security working poor inequality Gini coefficient Sozialer Abstieg squeezed middle class precarious work wage growth wage stagnation income inequality income mobility Super Rich 1% bank bailout banking crisis sovereign debt crisis Polarisation Career Politicians dogma ideology crony capitalism
september 2015 by asterisk2a

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Pando: In the Valley, pre-seed is a meme. In New York, it’s a necessity

// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!

Seed Round Party Round Venture Capital Micro VC barriers to entry cost of entry London Start-up Scene ecosystem New York Scene burn rate runway traction A Round seedfunding funding Angel Investor dilution cap table lesson advice liquidation preferences hunt for yield 2015 distortion FOMO equity bubble credit bubble ZIRP NIRP QE asset allocation Limited Partners monetary policy fiscal policy Wall Street asset bubble behavioral finance behavioral economics Silicon Valley Private Market Public Market reflate reflation cost of living valuation Unicorn Decacorn cost of leverage financial repression financial literacy financial financial cycle business cycle business confidence consumer confidence hubris panic irrational exuberance retail banking investment banking fractional reserve banking banking crisis
september 2015 by asterisk2a

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Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge

For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV

Oil price energy price OPEC 2015 China commodities global trade global economy western world developed world BRIC credit bubble ZIRP NIRP QE PBOC economic slowdown reflate reflation asset allocation asset bubble hunt for yield liquidity trap Fed BOE BOJ ECB hot-money currency-war currency debasement currency war economic history debt monetisation debt monetization contagion VIX volatility uncertainty unknown unkown unintended consequences margin trading deleveraging Greed Wall Street profit maximisation shareholder value share buyback hubris panic behavioral finance behavioral economics irrational exuberance economic growth monetary policy monetary stimulus unconventional monetary policy zombie banks business confidence consumer confidence recovery speculative bubbles speculative speculation equity bubble bond bubble property bubble economic damage
august 2015 by asterisk2a

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Greenspan: Be Afraid of Pending Bubble in Bond Market - Bloomberg Business

what is the new normal interest rate? // 7min long bloom.bg/1gteMeO - UK and USA productivity (levels at rate of zero growth) and output gap, capital investment inadequate - into unproductive investment bc of hunt for yield, bc of outlook of secular stagnation for western world and structural impediments, imbalances, and faultlines, and also because of fiscal and political uncertainty, and demographic bubble and ageing population in western world. future customers/consumers are not in western world, they are to be found right now in the developing world and frontier markets. // we are currently in an environment where we don't know what the new normal interest rate is, because of distortions and incomplete information:

Taber bond bubble 2015 QE ZIRP NIRP unintended consequences unknown unkown recovery globalisation globalization Software Is Eating The World competition competitive competitiveness borderless flat deflationary deflation secular stagnation western Richard Koo balance sheet recession technological progress creative destruction deleveraging debtoverhang Career Politicians austerity fiscal policy monetary policy underinvestment productive investment STEM developed demographic bubble ageing population Frontier Markets Developing World economic history hunt for yield asset allocation Group behaviour behavioral economics behavioral finance financial incentive incentive structural imbalance Impediments faultlines incomplete information complexity OPEC Europe
august 2015 by asterisk2a

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BaFin: Lebensversicherer kämpfen mit Kapitalregeln - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Die Lebensversicherungen leiden unter den niedrigen Zinsen in der Eurozone. Deshalb fällt es vielen Konzernen laut Finanzaufsicht BaFin schwer, ihre Kapitalanlagen an die neuen Regeln anzupassen - es gebe noch einige "Wackelkandidaten".

ZIRP NIRP QE unintended consequences hunt for yield asset bubble speculative bubbles speculative speculation behavioral finance group behavior behavioral economics Taper monetary policy Fed BOE BOJ ECB liquidity trap economic history
july 2015 by asterisk2a

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Sorry to burst your bubble | The Economist

bit.ly/1IfX0s9 // "According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt." // see China Stock Market leverage pop mid 2015 - with its huge rise in margin debt trading ... money which was flowing out of the property market into the Stock Market // // &! so if it is about debt - UK mortgage market & consumer/private debt of all kind (loans and credit card debt) does qualify as they took up what was cut by austerity. Plus the Supply Demand distortion, with new builds/project at a decades lowest. // Question for China. The China problem. Can they make their system sustainable before it will crush everyone. // The most obvious is China. But the next one will be different & greater than all came before. Period. Still, UK had not a housing bubble collapse on its own making. Only through endogenous circumstances. UK recession as UK economy runs mostly on consumer sector & debt) bit.ly/1OpClSO bit.ly/1wQITjb bit.ly/1SycLtY

leverage debtoverhang equity bubble regulation self-regulation regulators debt servitude consumer debt sovereign debt crisis debt bubble Super Cycle household debt private debt economic history KennethRogoff carmenreinhart Greenspan-Put ZIRP NIRP QE margin trading margin debt asset liquidity economic damage asset bubble asset allocation distortion behavioral economics behavioral finance mortgage market UK credit card housing market property bubble Funding for Lending Scheme Help to Buy Scheme fiscal policy monetary policy macroprudential policy sustainability sustainable NPL zombie banks zombie consumer economic model economic irrational exuberance macroeconomic policy economic growth debt monetisation reflation debt monetization consumerist consumerism consumer confidence business confidence business financial financial crisis GFC balance sheet recession Richard Koo deleveraging baddebt non-performing loan
july 2015 by asterisk2a

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The Coming Crash & The Recession That Never Ended - Part 1 - YouTube

Part 2 youtu.be/SpJ4L2QGNI4 [ min 2:00 post WW2 german debt jubilee - American & Britain needed Germany as bulwark against USSR! thus Germany had leverage because it was systemic. Greece is not systemic, nor needed. Thus they openly talk, relaxed, abt Grexit. Grexit was systemic risk in the first ~3 years post GFC, because of underfunded German, Frensh and Belgian zombie banks. 6:00 PIGS generation will be disillusioned about claims of European Union unity! 7:30 austerity ] // &! Part 3 - youtu.be/FWulzJy2oXc Bernie Sanders on inequality &! social mobility, skills gap, ... make-up of USA economy is a impediment to future growth (output gap, no more 3% annually) & also part-cause of inequality ... &! Part 4 youtu.be/8wzDwU1pzpY - China may tumble bc they dont have the internal & global demand for the infrasturcture/economy they have build (debtoverhang, debt servitude) &or social uprising &! USA overreach // Forget QE, Wall Street’s new drug is the stock buyback - on.mktw.net/1HDtdUR

Richard Wolff Taper equity bubble China irrational exuberance ZIRP NIRP QE unintended consequences unknown unkown asset bubble hunt for yield stock buyback fundamentals economic growth recovery UK USA balance sheet recession Europe Richard Koo job creation Service Sector Jobs labour market participation rate underemployed structural unemployment structural imbalance Impediments unemployment youth unemployment long-term unemployment Gini coefficient income growth disposable income low income income distribution income inequality wage growth wage stagnation employment self-employment squeezed middle class precarious work working poor social mobility income mobility Robert Shiller robertshiller part-time Contractor Zero Hour Contract uncertainty Niedriglohnsektor minimum wage Niedriglohn Lohnzurückhaltung lohndumping Zeitarbeit Leiharbeit monetary policy fiscal policy deleveraging debtoverhang savings rate debt servitude Super Cycle behavioral economics behavioral finance skills gap education policy vocational education economic history economic model trickle-down economics discretionary spending dogma ideology austerity neoliberal neoliberalism democracy Career Politicians No Representation debt monetisation debt stagnation inequality history debt debt debt m
july 2015 by asterisk2a

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Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube

// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?

BIS equity bubble speculative bubbles credit bubble asset bubble property bubble macroprudential policy macroeconomic policy ZIRP NIRP QE Taper unintended consequences unknown unkown complexity bond bubble Student Loan debt debt regulation oversight governance BOE simplicity incomplete information academia academics economist behavioral economics behavioral finance economic history systemicrisk EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard financial market sustainable sustainability mortgage market UK USA China speculative speculation contagion monetary policy unconventional monetary policy monetary theory modern monetary theory credit boom financial cycle Makers policy folly policy error Career Politicians short-term thinking short-term view political economy political theory centralbanks economic damage economic model Richard Koo animal spirit austerity monetary transmission mechanism robertshiller Robert Shiller ideology dogma sovereign debt crisis populism corporate state manufactured consent Lügenpresse BOJ Fed currency war currency debasement ECB negative real interest rate Japan hunt for yield irrational exuberance
july 2015 by asterisk2a

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Marc Andreessen on innovation and diversity | Fortune - YouTube

Public Market became cautious '14/'15: oil price slump + China + Russia + secular stagnation of the west in general (productivity gap & output gap), Abenomics, negative bond yields for gov debt and nearly 0 for corporate AAA debt, deflationary pressures in UK (0% inflation last 2 quarters), Europe (steady decline of M3 & issuance of new debt), & USA (with deflationary pressures as well). macroeconomic indicators do signal caution, because despite all the efforts (throwing the bathtub at the problem; ECB installing negative yield 4 overnight bank deposits with them) from central banks (NIRP, QE, POMO & other policies), the economic engine of the world & the west is still not going into 3rd or higher. // & Andreesen's argument, against, that tech is in bubblish territory, is, that in comparison with '99/'00 & the Public Markets current caution; (re-)investment (GOOG 11bn '14) & share buybacks (IBM, MSFT) schemes & dividends payout dwarf VC & growth rounds in tech by several magnitudes.

2015 IPO M&A Wall Street shareholder shareholder value Silicon Valley bubbles equity bubble bond bubble recovery GFC ZIRP NIRP QE BOE BOJ Abenomics ECB Fed Public Market Private Market hunt for yield single-class share structure Marc Andreessen Venture Capital Unicorn economic history macroeconomics debt bubble secular stagnation demographic bubble speculative bubbles behavioral economics behavioral finance distortion sovereign debt crisis zombie corporations zombie banks zombie consumer Super Cycle debt monetisation debt monetization deleveraging debtoverhang balance sheet recession
april 2015 by asterisk2a

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Gillmor Gang: Money for Nothing - Gillmor Gang | TechCrunch TV

min 42 // A Round is now a "post-traction" investment aka proven product & business model. A Round is an investment to scale it up, put it up a bunch of gears. // Keith Teare from chat.center (tcrn.ch/1IWFQ1X) people now doing pre-seed, seed, seed prime & bridge funding via existing investors; figuring out Product/Market fit, traction, funnel, etc. Now more than ever a hits driven business. // see also tcrn.ch/1c54UpN // Complexity of phenomenon - symptoms, causes and tangents; biases, selection bias, pattern matching, bidding up hot deals in the private market where the highest bidder will get the deal - irrationality of accepting those valuations and the founders Unicorn-status need, hunt for yield, trendy - the future, when doing 'hard things' becomes fashionable (ie Reality TV, TV Series & a shallow Channel 4's How To Be A Young Billionaire) then beware, negative yields for secure investments (bonds and corp debt), perceived 'conservative' value vs private bid up bubble potential.

Seed Round A Round traction hunt for yield ZIRP NIRP QE unintended consequences Silicon Valley asset bubble asset allocation behavioral finance bond bubble bubbles equity bubble demographic bubble secular stagnation complexity growth Start-Up lesson Start-Up advice pattern matching selection bias confirmation bias bias Unicorn Wall Street Private Mutual Fund Hedge Fund Venture Capital savings glut productive investment business model Snapchat WhatsApp Instagram Slack Uber productivity output gap STEM Share Economy Services Industry Niedriglohnsektor incomplete information economic history marginal cost liquidity trap sovereign debt crisis debt bubble zombie banks zombie consumer zombie corporations structural imbalance global imbalances faultlines Product/Market Fit value creation 1000 True Fans Core Product Proposition differentiate differentiation
april 2015 by asterisk2a

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Would you rather be a real millionaire or a paper billionaire? The psychology of unicorns and the toll on Q1 returns | PandoDaily

And yet total cash going to venture backed companies was a whopping $17.7 billion– up over the $12.6 billion raised in the same period last year. But here’s the thing: Only $11.3 billion of that came from venture firms, throwing into question whether we should even still keep using the adjective “venture-backed” to describe the category. The disparity shows just how much more money is coming from non-VCs like hedge funds, private equity, mutual funds, and sovereign wealth funds, who have watched the private valuation growth of Facebook and the rest of the deca-corns and are desperately trying to get a stake in private companies before they IPO. [...] Things have gotten strange for VCs — and in turn, entrepreneurs — and the climate doesn’t seem to be improving

Private Equity Hedge Fund Mutual Fund growth round Venture Capital Silicon Valley Unicorn hunt for yield Sovereign Wealth Fund distortion ZIRP NIRP QE bubble bond bubble debt bubble zombie corporations zombie banks Super Cycle savings glut liquidity trap productive investment speculative bubbles Wall Street incomplete information market confirmation bias pattern matching pattern recognition selection bias bias behavioral finance
april 2015 by asterisk2a

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David Blanchflower: Do not be fooled – growth and living standards under the Coalition have still been abysmal - David Blanchflower - Business Comment - The Independent

Over the entire six-year period [ 2009 - 2013] real earnings in the UK fell by 6.5 per cent, and by 5.9 per cent between 2010 and 2012, and only Greece (minus 23 per cent) was lower. Real earnings growth was positive over this entire period in France (+5 per cent); Germany (+4 per cent); Japan (+1 per cent) and the US (+1 per cent).

greatrecession UK GFC output gap productivity stagflation secular stagnation austerity fiscal policy monetary policy Funding for Lending Scheme monetary transmission mechanism property bubble indusrty London finance zombie banks zombie consumer sovereign debt crisis debtoverhang deleveraging balance sheet recession lost decade lost generation George Osborne David Cameron No Representation Help to Buy Scheme Supply and Demand Demand and Supply living standard working poor squeezed middle class class warfare Toff private education OECD BOE unconventional monetary policy macroprudential policy education policy Public economies of agglomeration economic history Mark Carney
september 2014 by asterisk2a

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