asterisk2a + finance + complexity   6

Masters in Business: Yale Professor Robert Shiller (Audio) by Bloomberg View
history has proven again, markets are not efficient long-term // psychology is disreputable in econ department. // cognitive dissonance - justifying X action by looking around ... / Efficient-market hypothesis is a hypothesis for a reason; "it's a half-truth" "sometimes market moves don't reflect market news." // irrational exuberance // book fooled by randomness // 24:00 eugene phama - markets are very efficient, prices reflect all the knowledge out there, just buy the index, don't try to beat the market. buy passive index // don't play poker with your life savings. << robert shiller // 30:00 look at politics science, sociology, psychology - influence markets, people. broader disciplines. economists disregard them. // finance is about manage risk! about being a productive society and progress, and not suffer from boom and bust cycle! + financing activities ie VC gov supported R&D // & gov being a support pillar for all and not picking winners, can't forecast the future!
free  market  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  efficient-market  hypothesis  complexity  human  Wall  Street  crowd  herd  herding  speculative  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  GFC  subprime  book  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  finance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  tax  rate  R&D  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  risk  pension  fund  pension  obligation  401k  public  pension  pension  scheme  pension  marginal  propensity  to  consume  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  Greed  oligarchy  self-regulation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  negative  equity  boom  &  bust  secular  stagnation  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Greenspan: Be Afraid of Pending Bubble in Bond Market - Bloomberg Business
what is the new normal interest rate? // 7min long bloom.bg/1gteMeO - UK and USA productivity (levels at rate of zero growth) and output gap, capital investment inadequate - into unproductive investment bc of hunt for yield, bc of outlook of secular stagnation for western world and structural impediments, imbalances, and faultlines, and also because of fiscal and political uncertainty, and demographic bubble and ageing population in western world. future customers/consumers are not in western world, they are to be found right now in the developing world and frontier markets. // we are currently in an environment where we don't know what the new normal interest rate is, because of distortions and incomplete information:
Taber  bond  bubble  2015  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  recovery  globalisation  globalization  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  competition  competitive  competitiveness  borderless  flat  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  technological  progress  creative  destruction  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  STEM  developed  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  Group  behaviour  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  financial  incentive  incentive  structural  imbalance  Impediments  faultlines  incomplete  information  complexity  OPEC  Europe 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
James Rickards - The Death of Money - 04-30-15 - YouTube
distribution of risk (bell curve, wrong) & talebs black swan! / 'dismal science alone doesn't do the world and people justice.' / IMF is the central bank of the world (funded, special drawing right - SDR; out of thin air - backed by national central banks as reference (basket) but not backed by anything. printed money.) / Hungary's crisis - people borrowing in Swiss Franc ... SDR marry go round paying someone off with the help of IMF ... / IMF is transparent non-transparent. Try reading it. Need to be an expert. / AIIB able to issue bonds and got billions in capital - China/Asia Development Bank. Everybody joined because they want those contracts for their local/national companies ... except USA. Asia (China led) World Bank equivalent. - bit.ly/1Mxz1Dp &! bit.ly/1x04SZv / China wants to be in IMF & be part of basket of SDR / China may back its currency with Gold eventually once theyve got enough & leverage then its position. / US wants Yuan to be pegged to $ / m44 debt sustainability
economic  model  book  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  academia  academics  science  sociology  psychology  discounted  risk  risk  discount  complexity  distributed  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  dogma  ideology  centralbanks  Fed  technocrat  IMF  World  Bank  Troika  bailout  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  austerity  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  currency  war  currency-war  currency  debasement  SDR  Special  Drawing  Right  AIIB  inflation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  counterpartyrisk  leverage  zombie  banks  Wall  Street  financial  repression  financial  literacy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Gillmor Gang: Money for Nothing - Gillmor Gang | TechCrunch TV
min 42 // A Round is now a "post-traction" investment aka proven product & business model. A Round is an investment to scale it up, put it up a bunch of gears. // Keith Teare from chat.center (tcrn.ch/1IWFQ1X) people now doing pre-seed, seed, seed prime & bridge funding via existing investors; figuring out Product/Market fit, traction, funnel, etc. Now more than ever a hits driven business. // see also tcrn.ch/1c54UpN // Complexity of phenomenon - symptoms, causes and tangents; biases, selection bias, pattern matching, bidding up hot deals in the private market where the highest bidder will get the deal - irrationality of accepting those valuations and the founders Unicorn-status need, hunt for yield, trendy - the future, when doing 'hard things' becomes fashionable (ie Reality TV, TV Series & a shallow Channel 4's How To Be A Young Billionaire) then beware, negative yields for secure investments (bonds and corp debt), perceived 'conservative' value vs private bid up bubble potential.
Seed  Round  A  Round  traction  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  Silicon  Valley  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  behavioral  finance  bond  bubble  bubbles  equity  bubble  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  complexity  growth  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  pattern  matching  selection  bias  confirmation  bias  bias  Unicorn  Wall  Street  Private  Mutual  Fund  Hedge  Fund  Venture  Capital  savings  glut  productive  investment  business  model  Snapchat  WhatsApp  Instagram  Slack  Uber  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Share  Economy  Services  Industry  Niedriglohnsektor  incomplete  information  economic  history  marginal  cost  liquidity  trap  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  faultlines  Product/Market  Fit  value  creation  1000  True  Fans  Core  Product  Proposition  differentiate  differentiation 
april 2015 by asterisk2a

related tags

&  1%  401k  A  academia  academics  advice  ageing  AIIB  allocation  Angel  animal  asset  austerity  bailout  balance  Bank  banks  behavioral  behaviour  bias  big  BIS  BOE  BOJ  bond  book  boom  borderless  bubble  bubbles  business  bust  Capital  Career  centralbanks  China  competition  competitive  competitiveness  complexity  confirmation  consent  consequences  consume  consumer  contagion  Core  corporate  corporations  cost  counterpartyrisk  creation  creative  credit  crisis  crowd  currency  currency-war  cycle  damage  debasement  debt  debtoverhang  deflation  deflationary  deleveraging  demographic  destruction  developed  Developing  differentiate  differentiation  discount  discounted  discretionary  disposable  distortion  distributed  dogma  Drawing  Eating  ECB  economic  economics  economist  economy  efficiencies  efficient-market  equity  error  Europe  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  exuberance  Fans  faultlines  Fed  finance  financial  fiscal  Fit  flat  folly  for  free  Frontier  fund  gap  Germany  GFC  global  globalisation  globalization  glut  governance  Greed  Group  growth  Hedge  herd  herding  history  hot-money  human  hunt  hypothesis  ideology  imbalance  imbalances  IMF  Impediments  incentive  income  incomplete  Industry  inefficiencies  inflation  information  Instagram  interest  investment  Investor  irrational  Is  jail  Japan  Koo  lesson  leverage  liquidity  liquidity-trap  literacy  Loan  Lügenpresse  macroeconomic  macroprudential  Makers  manufactured  marginal  market  marketplace  Markets  matching  maximisation  mechanism  model  modern  monetary  monetisation  monetization  mortgage  Mutual  negative  New  Niedriglohnsektor  NIRP  Normal  obligation  oligarchy  OPEC  output  oversight  pattern  pension  plutocracy  policy  political  Politicians  population  populism  Private  Product  Product/Market  productive  productivity  profit  progress  propensity  property  Proposition  psychology  public  QE  R&D  rate  real  recession  recovery  regulation  repression  Rich  Richard  Right  risk  Robert  robertshiller  Round  savings  scheme  science  SDR  secular  Seed  selection  self-regulation  Services  Share  shareholder  sheet  Shiller  short-term  Silicon  simplicity  Slack  Snapchat  sociology  Software  sovereign  Special  speculation  speculative  spending  spirit  stagnation  Start-Up  state  STEM  Street  structural  Student  subprime  subsidies  subsidizing  Super  sustainability  sustainable  system  systemicrisk  Taber  Taper  tax  TBTF  technocrat  technological  The  theory  thinking  to  too  toobigtofail  traction  transmission  trap  Troika  True  Uber  UK  unconventional  underinvestment  Unicorn  unintended  unknown  unkown  USA  Valley  value  Venture  view  Wall  WallStreet  war  welfare  western  WhatsApp  World  yield  ZIRP  zombie 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: