asterisk2a + expectations   16

Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann - Brexit is no excuse to loosen EU budget rules
Reuters report that this puts Weidmann at odds with German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who has called for Europe's "Stability and Growth Pact" to be boosted for more growth.
-
So, we've got a politician wanting to spend more.
And the head of the Buba saying "No!"

Same old :-D //&! http://news.forexlive.com/!/germany-will-stick-to-balanced-budget-report-20160701
lost  decade  Brexit  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  BuBa  Bundesbank  ECB  MarioDraghi  trichet  Angela  Merkel  austerity  budget  deficit  Germany  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  liquidity  trap  Mark  Blyth  economic  history  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  inflation  expectations  recovery  Jens  Weidmann  monetary  policy  global  economy  Schwarze  Null  Exportweltmeister  Beton  Gold  Betongold  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Richard  Koo  European  Union  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  non-performing  loan  underinvestment 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Molly Wood from Marketplace giving insight into market skittishness and investor sentiments - YouTube
value buy (dividends) vs growth stock //&! market triggers & LinkedIn's stock plunge - youtu.be/I9IxYL_xENE //&! youtu.be/9NEYOS3AJsA //&! What are the chances of a market crash? How is today different from 2008? - youtu.be/T1T4z-aEGhw
Wall  Street  Apple  growth  Amazon  economic  history  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  expectations  forecast  credit  bubble  secular  stagnation  investor  sentiment  emerging  middle  class 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
SPERI Annual Lecture 2015: 'The Failure of Austerity' by Lord Robert Skidelsky - YouTube
economic history - "state spending inherently unproductive." // borrowing is deferred taxation - David Richardo - Rational expectations. Market economy always tended full employment. // Theory and Facts did not align. Keynes realised it post-war. Private investment is inherently volatile, ie slump conditions. state to offset underinvestment of private sector and match their retreat. getting rid of abnormal unemployment. done through monetary expansion (QE) and put onto state balance sheet available to spend. // Where 2009 forward QE got to banks ... // Paul Krugman - Confidence Fairy. // "Look after employment, and the budget will look after itself." but today it's the bond holders confidence who shapes budgets. // Keynes 'it is the long-term confidence of businesses that shape investment, confidence in state to no let a slump happen again.' but austerity, out of ammo talk, political-, social environment/sentiment & Osborne's '2016 will be tough year' speech were counter-productive.
austerity  economic  history  Robert  Skidelsky  Richard  Koo  David  Ricardo  sovereign  debt  crisis  underinvestment  productive  investment  competitiveness  competitive  public  utility  public  investment  education  policy  public  transportation  Good  infrastructure  investment  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  George  Osborne  trickle-down  economics  tax  code  progressive  taxation  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Chicago  School  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Pact  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Schuldenbremse  western  world  Paul  Krugman  political  folly  political  theory  political  economy  political  error  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  financial  cycle  Greed  economic  cycle  inflation  expectation  expectations  Super  debt  servitude  GFC  recovery  Conservative  Party  fearmongering  Fear  Career  Politicians  nasty  David  Cameron  PR  spin  doctor 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why we're unhappy -- the expectation gap | Nat Ware | TEDxKlagenfurt - YouTube
expectations, Alain de botton told us to make a list every morning, of the worst things that can happen today. write your pessimism down
Alain  de  Botton  psychology  happiness  index  expectations  life  lesson  life  hacker 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The Downtown Project Suicides: Can the Pursuit of Happiness Kill You? | Re/code
http://www.feld.com/archives/2014/10/founder-suicides.html "I’m saddened by the struggles around The Downtown Vegas Project. I’ve long thought, and continue to think, it’s a really interesting experiment." + http://chrisyeh.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-manic-side-of-entrepreneurship.html !+!+! http://pando.com/2014/10/01/sarah-lacy-talks-vegas-downtown-project-on-npr/ + http://knprnews.org/post/tony-hsieh-i-was-never-downtown-projects-leader "no hard decisions were made, no confidence inspired / transpired, etc etc ... media was overwhelmingly/breathless positive and cheerful with very little doubt and questioning. ... if you start a company, you are responsible, can't expect landholding and infinite pay checks etc etc ... it is your responsibility to get to cash flow positive (see their 5 year plan)" + https://gigaom.com/2014/10/02/5-questions-for-tony-hsieh-and-the-downtown-project/
Las  Vegas  Downtown  Project  Tony  Hsieh  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Leadership  urban  planning  urbanisation  city  living  Las  Vegas  Silicon  Valley  ecosystem  complexity  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  failure  business  failure  subsidies  subsidizing  journalism  journalismus  trust  trustagent  confidence  business  confidence  entrepreneurship  entrepreneur  entrepreneurial  Venture  Capital  Vision  cash  flow  expectations  social  entrepreneurship  capitalism 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC Sport - World Cup 2014: Brazil cracked up, says Germany's Joachim Low
w/o Thiago Silva, Luiz was incapable 2 pickup Leadership role, commanding, directing, organising the game. It wasnt just Neymar missing. It was a team w/o leadership. Youve got 11 world players on both sides. But a team w/o a leader, vision, direction, playbook is a incomplete team. A house of cards that was the Brazilian Team, (many around 1-2 key players - philosophy) fell apart. http://bbc.in/1mHpAHB + http://bbc.in/U39yeN "Scolari bounded off the team coach wearing a white "Forca Neymar" baseball cap while captain David Luiz and goalkeeper Julio Cesar held up his number 10 shirt during the national anthem. Fine sentiments perhaps, but also a sign of overwrought emotions, of the pressure of playing without their superstar and the doubts that exposed. The constant hugging and team bonding smacked more of insecurity and posturing. Germany in contrast were cold, clinical, magnificent." http://bbc.in/1znN7l3 http://bit.ly/1oix4ML + "the trophy doesnt say great team, it says 'winners.'"
leadership  Passion  elite  sports  elite  athlete  Soccer  Brazil  Argentina  Germany  Scolari  vision  capital  skills  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  communication  team  management  management  weakness  weakest  link  people  management  execution  discipline  playbook  Personal  game  plan  accountability  responsibility  Luiz  Felipe  Scolari  pressure  peer  pressure  expectations  courage  sport  psychology  psychology  performance  performance  anxiety  Competition  competitive  gaming  competitive  competitive  advantage  competitiveness  comparative  advantage  self-belief  self-awareness  Soccer  World  Cup  philosophy  Italy 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Drowning in venture capital, mobile startups are waging unsustainable price wars | PandoDaily
upside of this up-cycle/up-business cycle? everyone with a little bit of chops and a MVP with little bit of traction can get capital. Downside? Everyone spends their capital. Would never happen in a down cycle. Down cycles are great, you've got more time to build a great team, product and brand. .... "[L]ook at ecommerce 2.0 companies like Fab and EcoMom who blew millions in capital acquiring customers at unsustainable rates, hoping for some magic lifetime customer value to justify the spending. (It didn’t.) “There’s a tension between growing fast enough and having a disastrous bottom line,” Jeff Clavier, Founder of SoftTech VC, says. Clavier was an early investor in Fab, among others playing this game. “If you don’t have growth you’re stuck, but if you have growth with economics not viable in the long term, [you’re making] a real bet that you’ll be funded nevertheless.” [...] companies aren’t developing a sustainable business model. [Freemium works better with Software Product.]
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  VC  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  growth  round  Uber  Lyft  Fab.com  sustainable  sustainability  customer  acquisition  customer  retention  2014  asset  bubble  bubble  Silicon  Valley  Palo  Alto  San  Francisco  business  model  business  plan  user  experience  user  expectations  Amazon  Zappos  free  freemium  SAAS  on-demand  mobile  services  Industry  mobile  first  Uber  for  X  Groupon  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  London  Start-Up  Scene  me  too  price  war  commoditization  commodity  business  differentiation  differentiate  brand  brands  branding  indefensible  values  defensible  values  business  management  management  economics  frictionless  friction  rackspace  training  your  customer  growth  crutch  growth  hacker  traction  Value  Proposition  long-term  thinking  long-term  view 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Confident As F*** But Scared as S*** - YouTube
... personal investment. one should know that a business outcome isn't reflective on a persons value. Leads me to the end conclusion of http://www.ted.com/talks/richard_wilkinson "Richard Wilkinson: How economic inequality harms societies" - where he shows that inequality leads to social stress. Paul Robinette associates his business outcome and other peoples reviews of his brainchild with his personal likeability and his social value to the overall community / friends and family and associates. + see http://www.youtube.com/user/ThisWeekIn/search?query=Jerry+Colonna
Start-Up  entrepreneurship  entrepreneur  judgement  expectations  life  lesson  Oxidative  stress  stress  USA  inequality  Gini  coefficient  This  Week  in  Startups  jasoncalacanis  Jerry  Colonna  This  Week  in  Start-Ups  advice 
march 2014 by asterisk2a
"BBC" - Horizon 2014 The Power of the Placebo - YouTube
ie neurotransmitter PGE2 downregulation to exert oneself further. ie own opiate production to reduce pain. ... we have the receptors in our brain, and the ability to produce neurotransmitters/hormones to connect to those connectors. and thus ie reduce pain reception by producing own chemical in the brain - a opiate. ... how people do with their condition has a lot to do with their attitude. and it is all about our expectation. feelings. and knowledge. bc our thoughts and expectations can trigger chemical releases / or inhibition in our body/brain. if we expect the placebo to do something, it can make our brains to release the appropriate chemicals to be able to achieve/attain those expectations. Even hypnosis can act as a placebo. Extra strength, non deceptive. Even the Practitioner - Patient relationship/interaction does matter about the outcome, a more positive outcome of the treatment.
Placebo  Placebo  Effect  neuroscience  neurology  neurobiology  medical  research  Sport  psychology  elite  sports  elite  athlete  Doping  expectations  Hypnosis  mental  health  psychology  Psychiatry 
march 2014 by asterisk2a
Why the EU summit decisions may destabilise government bond markets | vox
!! Only the ECB can stabilise bond markets !!

The only way to stabilise the government bond markets is to involve the ECB, either indirectly by giving a banking license to the ESM so that it can draw on the resources of the ECB (see Gros and Mayer 2010), or by direct interventions by the ECB. But the European leaders were unable (unwilling) to take that necessary step to stabilise the Eurozone.

The ECB is the only institution that can prevent panic in the sovereign bond markets from pushing countries into a bad equilibrium, because as a money-creating institution it has an infinite capacity to buy government bonds. The fact that resources are infinite is key to be able to stabilise bond rates. It is the only way to gain credibility in the market.

The SMP is the wrong precedent

**
My take, I am only buying half of the analysis. Outright bond buying would need a treaty change!? Another concern is rampant inflation expectations causing local bubbles.
bailout  greatrecession  inflation  expectations  IOU  fiscal  policy  Pact  lenderoflastresort  Eurobond  PIIGS  EMU  moralhazard  politics  Economics  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  trustagent  trust  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  SMP  ECB  EFSF  ESM  sovereign  debt  crisis 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
BofA Warns Upcoming "Desperate Measures" By Authorities Will Result In Another 2008 Market Collapse | ZeroHedge
 "rather than a repeat of 2010, when the Fed saved the day with QE2, we think we are moving closer to a repeat of 2008, when major policy errors devastated the economy." For once we actually agree with Bank of America: "In our view, the pressure to “do something” is now far more likely to result in more desperate or radical measures, even if it is bad policy." Does this mean that we are looking at a TARP "vote down" market reaction this Friday if indeed the chairman disappoints? We will know for sure in about 100 hours, which just may be the longest 100 hours for bulls since the start of the artificial and solely QE inspired bear market levitation in March of 2009. 
The environment has become too overwhelmed by uncertainty, particularly on the policy front. In our view, the pressure to “do something” is now far more likely to result in more desperate or radical measures, even if it is bad policy.
QE2  QE3  August  JacksonHole  Fed  benbernanke  2011  market  expectations  monetary  politics  error  mistake  uncertainty  ZIRP  easing  quantitative  quantitative-easing 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Anleihenkufe: Euro-Retter riskieren Inflation - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Das nächste Tabu ist gebrochen. Die Europäische Zentralbank will jetzt auch italienische Staatsanleihen aufkaufen.  Mit dieser Politik nähert sie sich immer weiter ihrem amerikanischen Pendant, der Fed, an. Die Gefahr dabei: Die Inflation könnte steigen.

"Die Fed ist nicht mehr unabhängig", sagt Scheide. "Geldpolitik und Finanzpolitik sind in den USA vermischt worden. Das ist genau das, was Europa nicht will. Denn das würde das Vertrauen in die EZB untergraben."

 "Kauft die EZB Anleihen am Kapitalmarkt, so steigt die Basisgeldmenge"  "Sollte die Geldmenge letztlich in der Privatwirtschaft ankommen, würde sie sich, so lehrt die Erfahrung, früher oder später in steigenden Preisen entladen."
Noch ist dieser Effekt in Europa überschaubar. Zu gering war bisher das Volumen der Anleihenkäufe. Zudem hat die EZB stets versucht, das neu geschaffene Geld dem Markt an anderer Stelle wieder zu entziehen. Dieses "Neutralisieren" wird jedoch umso schwieriger, je größer die Beträge werden.
ECB  Fed  monetization  Sterilization  debt  sovereign  crisis  trichet  PIIGS  USA  EFSF  inflation  stability  credibility  Euro  Dollar  expectations  economics  monetary  policy  fiscal  folly  bailout  dilemma  QE  quantitative-easing 
august 2011 by asterisk2a

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