asterisk2a + economic-thought   70

Interview ǀ Weg vom BIP-Wachstumswahn — der Freitag
Interview Hans Diefenbacher ist Ökonom und hat eine Alternative zum allmächtigen Bruttoinlandsprodukt entwickelt //&! „Ökonomen verhindern einen Wirtschaftswandel" Interview An der Cusanus-Hochschule werden alternative Wirtschaftsmodelle gelehrt. Die Professorin und Ökonomin Silja Graupe erzählt im Gespräch, warum das notwendig ist -
BIP  GDP  nominal  GDP  targeting  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  crony  capitalism  capitalism  economics  of  abundance  liberal  economic  reform  austerity  economic-thought  economic  history  economic  damage  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Greed  shared  economic  interest  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  happiness  index  climate  change  short-termism  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  inequality  Gini  coefficient 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles - Bloomberg View
[Money has been slushing arnd in markets speculating, not investing in future & productive, added value goods. big companies are flush 2. easy credit is holding zombie corps of the last century over water. western world is persisting 2 put a banking bailout/crisis in the light of a sovereign debt crisis 2 push idealogical austerity. falling way being, never be able 2 catch up with productivity, output gap, STEM, research, future of work, smart grid & infrastructure, retooling their economy 21st century style.] // "speculation in property markets, amplified by mortgage financing, as a persistent central factor driving economic cycles." [...] the worst bubbles -- those that inflict the most economic pain -- tend to involve not just speculation, but a surge in easy lending and increasing leverage. [...] economic downturns following credit bubbles were generally worse and lasted longer. [...] danger of leverage cycle. // [ easy credit & debt fuelled recovery of assets, not fundamentals ]
book  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  economic  history  zombie  banks  Mark  Blyth  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  business  confidence  business  investment  economic  damage  2015  faultlines  structural  imbalance  structural  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  education  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  western  world  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  Software  Is  Eating  The  GFC  Career  Politicians  status  quo  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  banking  crisis  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  financial  market  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Impediments  distortion  economic  model  economic  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  financial  incentive  financial  repression  financial  literacy  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  monetary  stimulus  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  PBOC  China  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  academia  academics  economic-thought  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  hubris  panic  consumer  confidence  confidence  trust  banking  investment  banking  distr 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Big businesses should agree to renounce aggressive tax planning, says HMRC | Business | The Guardian
[ Voluntary, are you kidding me!? ] The government wants the UK’s largest businesses to sign a voluntary code of conduct on tax which would see them renounce aggressive tax planning and vow to follow the spirit as well as the letter of the law. // [ rootless crony capitalistic tax evaders with profit maximization and shareholder value on mind ... to pay more!? ] [ how intellectual dishonest can one be!? (Osborne, Cameron and Co.) we are obviously not all in this together! He ask the poorest, disabled and unemployed to do their best (or work more hours, harder and asking their employer to pay them more for the same amount of work - by cutting tax credits) and if it doesn't yield results, cuts the benefits (his 'only work pays' mantra ... and ask crony rootless global conglomerates to be a little easier on tax planning through a "voluntary code of conduct" ]
general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  budget2015  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  No  Representation  austerity  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  UK  conglomerate  corporate  governance  Career  Politicians  IMF  OECD  democracy  society  social  cohesion  social  tension  HMRC  corporate  tax  rate  trickle-down  economics  economic  model  economic-thought  dogma  ideology  propaganda  corporate  state  populism  Lügenpresse  fairness  Gesellschaft  solidarity  manufactured  consent  neoliberalism  neoliberal  liberal  economic  reform  microeconomic  policy  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  tax  credit  child  tax  credit  working  tax  credit  Tories  Conservative  Party  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  minimum  wage  living  wage 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
George Osborne will spend more than ever. Don’t be fooled by his ‘40% cuts’ | Simon Jenkins | Comment is free | The Guardian
The chancellor is not cutting the cost of the public sector – he just wants a different one. But even then, expect costs to balloon // he wants to outsource services with an aim to save money. but as the welfare reform has showed, this often does not save money, does not increase efficiencies, and actually cost in terms of (quality and speed of) service delivered to tax payer - what they paid for - compared to in-house solutions. Offshore companies do bid low to get contract, save on every corner, on staff pay, and incentivize employees with bonuses targeted towards short-term goals and no shared economic interest. After all its a corporate entity with profit maximization in mind and shareholder value in mind - only!
outsourcing  Public  Services  Social  Services  welfare  state  budget2015  Tories  neoliberalism  neoliberal  liberal  economic  reform  Conservative  Party  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  shared  economic  interest  economic  model  economic-thought  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  fairness  Privatisation 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Who Will Pay? Austerity vs. Bailouts | Greece, Europe and The Euro! - YouTube
have to be held accountable >> bankers! but have not, just transfered private debt/losses onto public balance sheet which no has to paid down by the weakest of society and collectively by less public investment for the future (output gap/lower productivity) ie into infrastructure and education // stealing from the young // policy making by comfort and trinkets - George Osborne // moral hazard - the options they choose - paulson geithner summers and co made the tbtf and jail even worse! instead should have chosen partial privatization // sold off our future for keeping the gangsters "private" - get out of jail free card for what reason? because it would be not American? American means to be WALL STREET crony capitalistic greed with tax evasion and lobbying to the tunes of millions - your judge - that judges on you whether you get a free out of jail card?! // who will suffer in the end? the public and the weakest of society and unborn! period. long-term. // &!
Grexit  UK  Greece  PIGS  austerity  bailout  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Wall  Street  social  cohesion  social  tension  generational  contract  pension  obligation  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  generationy  Millennials  fairness  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  economic  model  economic-thought  philosophy  sociology  Gesellschaft  Free  Lunch  Student  Maintenance  Grant  social  mobility  income  mobility  Gini  coefficient  education  policy  Higher  vocational  education  infrastructure  infrastructure  investment  public  interest  public  investment  STEM  productive  investment  productivity  output  gap  greed  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  morality  moralhazard  GFC  recovery  lost  decade  lost  generation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Failure  American  Dream  sovereign  debt  crisis  democracy  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  populism  propaganda  Lügenpresse  banking  crisis  trust  trustagent  distrust  zombie  banks  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  shadow  banking  financial  repression  financial  literacy  FinancialCrisisResponsibilityFee  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  tobin-tax  financialtransactionfee  transactiontax  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  poverty  trap  child  poverty  poverty  welfare  state  Services  Services  sustainable  economic  sustai 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Germany won’t spare Greek pain – it has an interest in breaking us | Yanis Varoufakis | Comment is free | The Guardian
Debt restructuring has always been our aim in negotiations – but for some eurozone leaders Grexit is the goal [...] To frame the cynical transfer of irretrievable private losses on to the shoulders of taxpayers as an exercise in “tough love”, record austerity was imposed on Greece, whose national income, in turn – from which new and old debts had to be repaid – diminished by more than a quarter. It takes the mathematical expertise of a smart eight-year-old to know that this process could not end well. [...] In my first week as minister for finance I was visited by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup (the eurozone finance ministers), who put a stark choice to me: accept the bailout’s “logic” and drop any demands for debt restructuring or your loan agreement will “crash” – the unsaid repercussion being that Greece’s banks would be boarded up. [...] Wolfgang Schäuble, decided that Grexit’s costs were a worthwhile “investment” as a way of disciplining France et al,
Yanis  Varoufakis  debt  restructuring  debt  jubilee  Super  Cycle  sustainable  sustainability  Great  Depression  Greece  Grexit  lost  decade  lost  generation  PIGS  Troika  Germany  France  IMF  Angela  Merkel  ChristineLagarde  European  History  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Thomas  Piketty  ECB  MarioDraghi  Leadership  European  Union  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvent  insolvency  austerity  economic  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  dogma  ideology  propaganda  Lügenpresse  bailout  zombie  banks  populism  manufactured  consent  media  conglomerate  corporate  state  Jeroen  Dijsselbloem  Jean-Claude  Juncker  Eurogroup  EFSF  ELA  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  referendum  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  FrancoisHollande  academia  academic  academics  carmenreinhart  kennethlewis  Alexis  Tsipras  Syriza  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  Podemos  Indignants  Indignados  occupywallstreet  fairness  GFC  recovery  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  economic-thought  shared  economic  interest  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  economists  economic  damage  short-term  thinking  short-term  view 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Slavoj Zizek im Interview über Tripras - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mehr Europa: Im Interview verteidigt der Slowene Slavoj Zizek die Tsipras-Regierung - und deren Idee eines Referendums. Von Philip Kaleta [...] Zizek: Die griechische Regierung hat wiederholt ihre Absicht klar gemacht, Griechenland sowohl in der EU als auch in der Eurozone halten zu wollen. Diese Haltung ist völlig eindeutig, Referendum hin oder her. Es geht heute darum, ob der Sparkurs weiterverfolgt wird oder neue Wege eingeschlagen werden. Die Kritiker von Tsipras versuchen, den Kern des Referendums in eine Schicksalsfrage umzudeuten. [...] Ohne einen solchen Plan [oekonomischer neuanfang] würde sich die Krise letztlich immer wieder reproduzieren. [...] Sogar der IWF hat eingeräumt, dass Griechenland einen groß angelegten Schuldenerlass braucht, um "Raum zum Atmen" zu schaffen und die Wirtschaft wieder zum Laufen zu bringen. [...] In Ihrem aktuellen Buch plädieren Sie für eine europäische Leitkultur, ... [ bailout = socialism for tbtf/jail and donors, lobby & country club ]
democracy  Slavoj  Zizek  Greece  PIGS  austerity  bailout  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  referendum  Podemos  Syriza  Grexit  European  Union  debt  jubilee  sustainability  sustainable  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  Great  Depression  ideology  dogma  economic  history  sociology  psychology  history  Europe  solidarity  Gesellschaft  IMF  Troika  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Jean-Claude  Juncker  Jens  Weidmann  ChristineLagarde  ECB  MarioDraghi  Leadership  fiscal  political  compromise  shared  economic  interest  EFSF  European  vision  courage  technocrat  status  quo  lost  decade  lost  generation  egalitarianism  fairness  equality  inequality  Gini  coefficient  egalitarian  culture  society  heresy  thought  thought  leader  economic-thought  trust  trustagent 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek referendum: how would top economists vote? | World news | The Guardian
"A no vote would at least open the possibility that Greece, with its strong democratic tradition, might grasp its destiny in its own hands. [...] [I]s far more hopeful than the unconscionable torture of the present." [...] The troika clearly did a reverse Corleone – they made Tsipras an offer he can’t accept, and presumably did this knowingly [ Blackmail offer they (Syriza) could not accept - &! &! ]. So the ultimatum was, in effect, a move to replace the Greek government. [T]hat has to be disturbing for anyone who believes in European ideals. [...] I recommend that the Greek people give a resounding “No” to the creditors in the referendum on their demands this weekend. // &! The Guardian view on the Greek referendum: hard to imagine a more dismal choice - Editorial - - The Greek crisis has led Brussels into the business of regime change // &! True leaders admit 2 mistakes = humility. not smartest.
jeffreysachs  Jeffrey  Sachs  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  Grexit  referendum  democracy  Troika  IMF  ECB  austerity  ideology  economic  history  Career  Politicians  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  ChristineLagarde  Syriza  blackmail  dogma  economic  damage  economic  model  economic-thought  shared  economic  interest  social  tension  social  cohesion  Gesellschaft  European  Union  solidarity  propaganda  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  EFSF  haircut  debt  jubilee  Leadership  humility  MarioDraghi  Jean-Claude  Juncker 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
POLITICAL THEORY - Karl Marx - YouTube
>> capitalism is bad for capitalists. putting economic interest deep at peoples life. warenfetischisten - status anxiety, consumerism, zombie consumer. - anxious, competitive, conformist, and politically complacent. // tax inherited wealth, progessive taxation for income and capital gains. // symptoms of our time // find the cures that will work - augment marxism with what we know and learned till today.
Karl  Marx  philosophy  status  anxiety  zombie  consumer  shared  economic  interest  ideology  crony  capitalism  capitalism  sociology  psychology  economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  Marxism  book 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Jeremy Rifkin: A New Era of Capitalism - YouTube
energy changes societies. urbanisation and suburban enabled by fossil fuels. // "Energy Internet" clients are houses with solar roof-top and plugged in electric cars. Nodes are wind and solar farms, storage forms etc. Sharing energy globally. Continentalisation. // scales laterally, favours SME/SMB. // democratise manufacturing = 3D printing // Top-Down Corps to Prosumer (ProAm) to everybody being a potentially player! thus entrepreneurship, differentiation, being remarkable (Seth Godin). Distributed. Collaborative. Open. Transparent. (Open Source). Lateral Power. (TaxiOS project (collaborative) vs Uber (still top-down Wall Street profit maximisation shareholder value with no shared economic interest, capitalism [ ]). // We have to move from geopolitics to biosphere politics. Wall Street corporates are no stakeholders in our world, well being etc. // Continental political unions. Europe, Asia, South America, North America // Curse of oil! no diversification.
book  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  Energy  Internet  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  Smart  Grid  ProAm  differentiate  differentiation  Seth  Godin  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  education  policy  vocational  education  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  geopolitics  biosphere  politics  carbonfootprint  carbonemission  fossil  fuel  Wall  Street  stakeholder  globalisation  globalization  Collaborative  Capitalism  crony  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  productive  investment  underinvestment  GFC  21stcentury  Europe  tarsand  shale  gas  shalegas  fracking  economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  academia  academic  academics  trickle-down  economics  economics  of  abundance  marginal  cost  economic  growth  empathy  authenticity  authentic  humanitarian  crisis  human  tragedy  human  capital  human  progress  human  being  global  citizenship  global  warming  extreme  weather  weather  extreme 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
John Ralston Saul: Moving Beyond Globalism - YouTube
Deregulators & the people behind intellectual cleansing (ie Larry Summers vs Elizabeth Warren back in deregulation time of Clinton&Bush No. 2), have to be held responsible; economic thought; model, thinking, trickle-down, globalisation, no oversight & consumer protection // capitalism & globalisation are not self limiting // GFC is a symptom, Oil crisis in 70/80s,, world com, enron // globalisation (trade) doesnt solve growth problem // London banking is soufflé with no hard items (no real wealth creation within economy (income growth)) // shift money to who will spend it (re:bailout) // banks & rootless tax evaders global corps have no shared economic interest // "the globalist model" will work everywhere else, according to the IMF/World Bank, democracy will work in the Middle East. said the same people from the same school of thought // globalisation created oligopolies, not more competition! // climate change=investment w ROI // AfD=symptom // added value, no comp on price
GFC  recovery  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  corporate  culture  corporate  governance  corporatism  trickle-down  economics  globalisation  globalization  economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  economic  cycle  economic  growth  income  growth  Super  Rich  1%  Gini  coefficient  western  world  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  bailout  gesellschaft  social  tension  social  cohesion  Bank  IMF  austerity  neoliberal  neoliberalism  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  duopoly  oligarchy  oligopoly  oligopol  policy  folly  policy  error  Makers  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  populism  propaganda  AfD  UKIP  Protest  Partei  Protest  Party  European  Election  2014  society  Debt  Super  bubble  bond  bubble  jubilee  restructuring  haircut  sovereign  crisis  monetisation  monetization  consumer  household  debtoverhang  private  public  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  intellectual  honesty  climate  change  pollution  value  creation  added  value  middle  class  income  distribution  disposable  income  income  mobility  social  mobility  education  policy  vocational  education  practical  skills  practical  skill  set  differentiate  differentiation 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
A German Giant in Decline: How Siemens Lost its Way - SPIEGEL ONLINE
never ending growth on a planet with finite resources. never ending growth under a system that rewards short-term thinking. - not possible.
EPS  WallStreet  short-term  thinking  economic-thought  economic  history  philosophy  economics  Siemens  creative  destruction 
august 2013 by asterisk2a
Economic policy: Paved with good intentions | The Economist
Although the debate [austerity] relates to the UK, I think it has a much wider resonance. And indeed, to a student of history, it has fascinating parallels; economic policy-making was rethought in the mid-1970s, but the same debates are popping up again. [...] Margaret Thatcher on ZIRP & QE "Let us print the money instead. Because what that is saying is let us quietly steal a cerain amount from every pound saved in building societies, in national savings, from every person who has been thrifty." [...] [ZIRP & QE is no free lunch - it has consequences, known and unknown, unintended.]
infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  Margaret  Thatcher  Mark  Carney  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  deflation  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  QE  intellectual  fiscal  policy  free  lunch  UK  PIGS  debt  monetisation  Martin  Wolf  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  economic-thought  deleveraging  economics  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  liberal  economic  reform  IMF  GFC  output-gap  unintended  consequences  margaretthatcher  Troika  davidcameron  greatrecession  debtoverhang  economic  history  financial  repression  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  ZIRP  demand-curve  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  supply-demand  MervynKing  GeorgeOsborne 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Umfrage im Mittelstand: Deutsche Unternehmer schreiben Euro-Zone ab - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Unternehmer als Wachstumskritiker Deutschlands Mittelständler zeigen sich in der Umfrage sogar als Wachstumskritiker. 88 Prozent unterschrieben die Aussage, die deutsche Volkswirtschaft müsse sich auf Grenzen des Wachstums einstellen. Nach Ansicht der Commerzbank-Analystin Ulrike Rondorf spiegelt sich darin auch die derzeitige Kapitalismusdebatte. "Ich denke, dass diese Einschätzung der Unternehmer der breiten Öffentlichkeit entspricht, die ein Streben nach höherem Wachstum und Gewinnen ablehnt." > but without growth, you can't serve existing debt burden.
academics  Politics  GFC  Europe  academia  European  Commission  fault  lines  Troika  Structural  Impediments  greatrecession  policy  folly  debtoverhang  2013  economic  history  PIGS  imbalance  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Error  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  economic-thought  deleveraging  global  imbalances  mittelstand  Germany  faultlines  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Ökonomen und Sozialwissenschaftler zweifeln an der Demokratie - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Demokratien haben einen zu kurzen Zeithorizont." [...] Je höher das Wohlstandsniveau, desto wichtiger werden den Bürgern immaterielle Werte wie Freiheit, Rechtssicherheit oder demokratische Teilhabe.
property  law  Politics  INET  short-term  thinking  GFC  humanrights  philosophy  economic  history  freedom  of  press  intellectualproperty  academia  georgesoros  liberal  democracy  greatdepression  economic-thought  NiallFerguson  Russia  democracy  China  greatrecession  lostdecade 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
A Showdown In Italy Over A Polluting Steel Plant : NPR
A court in Italy has ordered a partial shutdown of the largest steel plant in Europe because of the carcinogens it spews into the air. The government has rejected the court's ruling, saying the Italian economy needs the jobs.


Short-Term National Economic Policy over Long-Term Public Health Concerns. PS: Public Health is actually of importance for Economic performance ... long-term (ie sick days, quality of life, productivity, ...). People (Politicians) again don't see the whole picture.

... cue CHINA.
greatrecession  Italy  China  Economic  Policy  policy-makers  error  folly  economics  economic-thought  philosophy  public  health  public  health 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
It's Global Warming, Stupid - Businessweek
Rising temperatures. Oceans heating up, more moisture in air. More energy for storms and hurricanes and general extreme weather events like torrential rain, blizzards, and prolonged droughts.


the nature of the thought of the problems is, that not just one making change, making sacrifice etc - is making an impacts - it is when everyone is doing it.
but game theory, capitalism, short-term thinking, nature of our culture is preventing us from doing the long-term good ... just look at the current sovereign debt crisis, pension obligations, public health crisis or obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. just look at the destruction of the planet, of the environment, deforestation, pollution, toxic rain, ...


we need to address the issue, need to start pay for it now, because the damage will be beyond repair.


after sandy, public transport came to a standstill; you have to question - where are the cycling lanes???
nyc  NY  culture  shock  culture  carbon  tax  economics  philosophy  economic-thought  game  theory  society  rising  sea  levels  environment  carbonfootprint  carbonemission  CO2  extreme  weather  climatechange  climate  science  globalwarming  Hurricane  Sandy 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
James Bianco: The US Economy Has Not Created New Wealth - YouTube
Real world Economics.

James Bianco, President of Bianco Research, L.L.C., argues that the US economy isn't creating a wealth effect. In fact, there has been no wealth creation during following the economic collapse of 2008. According to Bianco, if the market stays the same, the rich will get richer, and the poor poorer.
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  toobigtofail  lobby  Lobbying  WallStreet  policy-makers  policy  folly  policy  error  greatrecession  GFC  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  academics  academia  economic  cycle  economic-thought  economic  model  economic  history  economy  economics  wealth  creation 
october 2012 by asterisk2a
Renegade Economist with Prof Matthew Watson - YouTube
PPE - Politics, Philosophy, Economics

Economics is teached as method and skills, but not as subject matter.
university  education  economic-thought  economic  model  academics  academia  economics 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: We haven't forgotten how to make depressions | The Economist
GREECE is in a depression. A real deal, no kidding, bad-as-the-1930s depression.

The Greek economy is imploding for no other reason than that the prices are wrong.


sticky wages = sticky price for everything else


1930's Depression was excaserbated by countries sticking to the Gold standard.
The Euro is today Greece's, Spain's and so forth (PIIGS) Gold Standard that is ruinous.
EU Politicians made a grave error of judgement and assumptions - and are too stuck up as always to admit mistakes and revert course, OR drive full steam ahead with fiscal integration and assuming liabilities as a whole.

book  Brussels  policy-makers  politics  economic-thought  goldstandard  gold  sticky-wages  economics  supply-demand  demand-curve  economic  history  Euro  EMU  Europe  policy  folly  policy  error  depression  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Greece  greatrecession  greatdepression 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Five years on, the Great Recession is turning into a life sentence - Telegraph
Five years on it is clear that subprime was merely the first bubble to pop, a symptom not a cause. Europe had its own parallel follies. Britons were extracting almost 5pc of GDP each year in home equity by the end. Spain built 800,00 homes in 2007 for a market of 250,000. Iceland ran amok, so did Latvia and Hungary. The credit debacle was global. If there was an epicentre, it was Europe’s €35 trillion banking nexus.

There comes a point when extra debt draws down prosperity from the future. The future arrived in 2008.

A study by Stephen Cecchetti at the Bank for International Settlements concludes that debt turns “bad” at roughly 85pc of GDP for public debt, 85pc for household debt, and 90pc corporate debt. If all three break the limit together, the system loses its shock absorbers.

Much of the debt will have to be written off. Whether this done by inflation (1945-1952) or default (1930-1934) will be the great political battle of this decade.
politics  policy  folly  policy  error  default  scenario  inflation  reflation  debt  jubilee  economic  history  globalisation  global-economy  global  imbalances  savings  glut  creditcrunch  economic-thought  economic  model  BIS  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  credit  bubble  subprime  property  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  UK  China  USA  Europe  2012  2008  lostdecade  GFC  greatrecession 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC Today Show 'We didn't expect a total meltdown'
It is five years to the day since the start of the credit crunch. Sir John Gieve, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, economist Frances Cairncross, and Danny Gabay, who runs the Fathom Financial Consulting look back at half a decade of global economic uncertainty.

economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  greatrecession  subprime  debtoverhang  UK  2008  2007  creditcrunch  GFC 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Stephen Roach Mops Floor With Keynesianism And Former Fed Governor Larry Meyer | ZeroHedge
ex Fed member Larry Meyer:
'we do models, to do forecasts ... otherwise we don't know'

Roach replies: your models don't work, and thus your forecasts - because they use empirical (the past) data.

Your models are not based on science, what you (the Fed) is doing is working with assumptions.


Fed models / assumptions do not account deleveraging, debt overhang, outcome of financial crisis etc etc. disrupting and distorting the entire monetary system - which they build.

Because this is a different kind of gargantuan crisis than ever before.

One can only think about it that the system is broken (monetary system) - it may take 10-20 years to fully recover. Now one as to admit to that, that it is broken beyond patch work repair (QE, ZIRP and Co). And start think a new, and consider a debt jubilee. Basically a cold reset for the monetary system.
keynes  miltonfriedman  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  jubilee  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  creditcrunch  deleveraging  debtoverhang  NPL  zombie  banks  Japan  UK  USA  lostdecade  greatdepression  GFC  greatrecession  benbernanke  paulkrugman  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  economic  history  economic-thought  economic  model  Fed  richardkoo  stephenroach 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
We're (USA) Not Japan But One Can Always Hope | ZeroHedge
3 Years on ...

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- In today's "Single Best Chart," Bloomberg's Mike McKee displays how the current U.S. recovery is the slowest since the 1970's and even lags Japan at the same point of their recovery in 1993.

__Measured in Real GDP per capita :

USA post crisis (property and credit bubble + financial crisis followed by credit crunch, deleveraging, debt overhang and non-performing loans [balance sheet recession]) recovery is worse than the recovery of Japan from 1993 (property and equity bubble followed by credit crunch, deleveraging, debt overhang and non-performing loans [balance sheet recession]).


And Tim Geithner once said "the USA is not Japan".
paulkrugman  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  financialcrisis  property  bubble  creditcrunch  NPL  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  deleveraging  richardkoo  economic-thought  economic  model  Europe  GFC  greatrecession  economic  history  timgeithner  lostdecade  double-dip  UK  USA  Japan 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
PIMCO | Investment Outlook - Cult Figures
​- The long-term history of inflation adjusted returns from stocks shows a persistent but recently fading 6.6% real return since 1912.
- The legitimate question that market analysts, government forecasters and pension consultants should answer is how that return can be duplicated in the future.
- Unfair though it may be, an investor should continue to expect an attempted inflationary solution in almost all developed economies over the next few years and even decades.

[[For FX traders, a burgeoning era of inflation will ensure that high levels of volatility continue. Central bankers will repeatedly be tested and money will skip around the globe.]]

= Countries that take the brunt right now are Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, Brazil, Switzerland etc. countries where there is wealth and trust in institutions and or got natural resources (commodities, growing consumer), or is a creditor nation.
accounting  global-economy  global  imbalances  developed  world  frontiermarkets  emergingmarkets  BRIC  Switzerland  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  unintended  consequences  EMU  UK  BOE  ECB  Fed  centralbanks  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  economic-thought  deleveraging  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  confidence  trustagent  trust  politics  pension  pension  scheme  pension  obligation  pension  fund  financial  repression  economic  history  Europe  USA  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  PIMCO  new-normal  inflation  reflation 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Warum die Rettung der spanischen Banken gescheitert ist - SPIEGEL ONLINE
The crisis around Europe show, that market is, can become, a herd phenomenon. Where one problem or effect is increased by financial media concentration and analysis - and the market is piling in.

Example, Spain's 10yr is around 7%. But Belgium has very similar problems and even higher Debt/GDP as Spain, but Belgium's rates increases are negligible if one just listened to the media. And forgets about the facts.

The same is about Moody's warning about Core Risks, and potential downgrades. Media and Market and Major in-house analysis (from banks, hedge fonds and investment banks) are yet shy about adding the numbers of potential risks and liabilities as well as already existing liabilities through existing bailout agreements. Well ... till it isn't any more according to the majority of market participants. And then for Germany, yields will rise and will see a potential over reaction first.

The Crowd has certain psychological characteristics. Period. Proven above.
behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIIGS  ratingagencies  market-failure  market-mechanism  market  dynamics  psychology  bankrun  financialmarket  equilibrium  economic-thought  economic  model  economic  history  economic  multiple  equilibria  Chaos  theory 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ONS well-being report reveals UK's happiness ratings
Having a job and owning your own home are key to a happy life, the UK's first national wellbeing report suggests.


PS: One has also to choose to be happy.
economic-thought  economics  happiness 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Scandal At The IMF: Senior Economist Resigns, Says "Ashamed To Have Had Any Association With Fund At All" | ZeroHedge
the following scathing letter which tears down every myth about the IMF: from its impartiality, to the selection process of its head, to its effectiveness. The letter also contains the following gem: "After twenty years of service, I am ashamed to have had any association with the Fund at all." Pretty much says it all. This is a scandal in the making, and one which may shake to the core the credibility of the IMF in the context of international organization.


IS the IMF a institution to ensure the status quo?
politicalscience  political  theory  politics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  centralbanks  BIS  Worldbank  academia  economic-thought  economic  model  economic  history  greatrecession  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  status  quo  IWF  austerity  PIIGS  troika  trustagent  trust  accountability  transparency  credibility  IMF 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
ECB board member: Euro-bashing is Anglophone overload | A Fistful Of Euros
... there is a strange symmetry between this view and the pre-crisis gloating of the European Commission that the single currency’s American critics had been all wrong.
PIIGS  BIS  2012  MartinWolf  JosephStiglitz  paulkrugman  bloomberg  history  economic-thought  economic  history  USA  Europe  media  sovereign  debt  crisis  JörgAsmussen 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Libor affair shows banking’s big conceit -

[LIBOR scandal exposes] a big conceit at the very heart of the modern banking world.

Most notably, in recent decades large investment banks in the City of London and Wall Street have increasingly wrapped their activities with an evangelical adherence to the rhetoric of free markets; whenever they have wanted to justify
sky-high profits, wacky innovations or, most recently, the need to prevent a new regulatory drive, they have invariably cited the ideals of Adam Smith.


[T]he real issue was that Libor was never organised as a proper market in the first place, which is precisely why the manipulation continued unchecked on such a wide scale for so long.

[...] the market has been dominated by a small clique of powerful banks, which also controlled the BBA.
CFTC  free  market  economic-thought  economic  history  financialmarkets  interbank  lending  interbank  oligopol  competition  toobigtofail  adamsmith  accountability  transparency  WallStreet  greatrecession  GFC  banking  banking  crisis  SEC  BBA  FSA  manipulation  barclays  EURIBOR  LIBOR 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
A manifesto for economic sense -
Paul Krugman's rallying cry for growth:

"More than four years after the financial crisis began, the world’s major advanced economies remain deeply depressed, in a scene all too reminiscent of the 1930s. The reason is simple: we are relying on the same ideas that governed policy during that decade."

"The time is ripe for a manifesto in which mainstream economists offer the public a more evidence-based analysis of our problems."

an op-ed piece by Paul Krugman and Richard Layard
economic  history  economic-thought  2012  greatrecession  GFC  paulkrugman 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Draghi May Enter Twilight Zone Where Fed Fears to Tread - Bloomberg
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is contemplating taking interest rates into a twilight zone shunned by the Federal Reserve.

Once an obstacle for policy makers because it risks hurting the money markets they’re trying to revive, cutting the deposit rate from 0.25 percent is no longer a taboo, two euro-area central bank officials said on June 15.
“The European recession is worsening, the ECB has to do more,” said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London, who forecasts rates will be cut at the ECB’s next policy meeting on July 5. “A negative deposit rate is something they need to consider but taking it to zero as a first step is more likely.”

- bc of europes banking problem, contagion, and bank run in the periphery ... NIRP is considered - negative interest rate policy.
- ZIRP changed alot as did QE
- NIRP would make big waves in asset allocation

!!! But does monetary easing help banks and consumers clean up NPL / balance sheet? No!
NPL  economic-thought  economic  history  economic  model  economics  demand  balance  sheet  recession  richardkoo  debtoverhang  monetary  theory  creditcunch  unintended  consequences  psychology  contagion  GFC  greatrecession  2012  Fed  ECB  PIIGS  EMU  bank  crisis  bankrun  System  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
King adds to gloom over UK economy -
Sir Mervyn King and other Bank of England policy makers warned MPs on Tuesday that the economic situation had deteriorated so severely that they had ripped-up their forecasts of six weeks’ ago.

In some of his bleakest remarks to date, coming soon after weak public finance figures, he cautioned the public not to think Britain was even half-way through the crisis, which started almost five years ago.

Mr King said, “I have no idea what is going to happen in the euro area”.

“It is impossible to imagine a situation in which you just do not know what the situation will be in a part of the world that is close to you and is half of your trade. And that makes it impossible to engage in any sensible forecasting.”
economy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  QE  BOE  politics  policy  folly  policy  error  uncertainty  forecast  academics  academia  economics  economic  history  economic-thought  economic  model  contagion  EMU  Europe  greatrecession  sovereign  debt  crisis  GFC  UK  MervynKing 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Bank of England's money printing is putting UK economy at risk - Telegraph
In its annual report, the Swiss-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that artificially low rates and inflated asset prices could also be holding back growth by masking lenders' bad debts and deterring them from cleaning up their balance sheets.
"Prolonged and aggressive monetary accommodation may delay the return to a self-sustaining recovery," "It can undermine the perceived need to deal with banks' impaired assets."
Political pressure for loose monetary policy, including quantitative easing (QE), also threatened to damage central banks' credibility and destroy their independence,
at risk the central banks' price stability objective, their credibility and, ultimately, their independence.
governments, banks and households struggling with too much debt were dragging down the world's economy and that more needs to be done to make the banking system safer.
debt  jubilee  policy-makers  policy  folly  policy  error  politics  economics  economic-thought  economic  model  greatrecession  GFC  lostgeneration  lostdecade  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  richardkoo  monetary  theory  System  confidence  trust  trustagent  ECB  bubble  Japan  QE  ZIRP  unintended  consequences  economic  history  BOJ  Fed  BOE  monetary  policy  UK  zombie  banks  NPL  BIS 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Financial transaction tax on City would help rebalance Britain's economy | Business | The Guardian
Financial transaction tax on city would help rebalance Britain’s economy

With Germany, France , Italy and Spain all in favour of the FTT, George Osborne ‘s assumption is that such a tax could raise costs in those countries and drive business into London…


Britain could have cut up rough about a so-called Tobin tax, but Osborne has decided that the aggro is not worth it. His assumption is that a financial transaction tax (FTT) will raise costs in Frankfurt, Paris, Milan and Madrid, and so drive business to the City.

The chancellor is also dubious about claims that the money will be spent on "good causes" such as development aid or helping poor countries adapt to climate change. In the event that an FTT does prove to be a cash cow, Osborne thinks hard-up European governments will use it to reduce their budget deficits.

also in the article, imbalances of UK economy, and that a FTT will make the imbalance worse.
davidcameron  economic-thought  economic  model  2012  economy  greatrecession  GFC  economics  comparative  advantage  MervynKing  BoE  FSA  GeorgeOsborne  UK  tobin-tax  financialtransactionfee 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Why devaluation isn’t a viable option for Greece: Insights from a small open economy | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
If Greece leaves the euro, it can devalue its currency and start an export-led recovery – or so the popular argument goes. This column provides some hands-on insights from another small open economy, Barbados. It argues that for these economies that rely heavily on imports, devaluation will never be a viable option.

... and exchange rate depreciation imposes an avoidable inflation penalty that becomes entrenched in expectations.
Greece  macroeconomics  economic-thought  economic  model  economic  history  economics  foreignexchange  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  devaluation  Grexit 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Lethal Embrace? A Thought Experiment | Institute for New Economic Thinking
sovereign debt crisis and the bank crisis, conjoined twins

The problem Europe now faces is that monetary union, a fait accompli, left in place the historical symbiosis between national banking systems and national sovereignties, as well as the pattern of thinking formed by generations of experience with that symbiosis. As a consequence, when the crisis hit, national banking systems stepped in to help their national sovereigns, and national sovereigns stepped in to help their national banking systems.

Both thought they were doing the right thing, based on past experience. But the consequence has been to transform isolated sovereign debt crises into systemic bank crises, and to transform isolated national bank crises into systemic sovereign debt crises.

The deposit and fund outflow out of the periphery is migrating to core Europe. And because of the political backlash over giving up sovereignty, ... a banking union might be the next best.
banking  union  capital-flight  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  angelamerkel  Angela  ESM  EFSF  economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  ECB  greatrecession  GFC  2012  banking  Europe  EMU  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
The Economic Case for Same-Sex Marriage - Bloomberg
Economics of marriage and its changes through the centuries.

"Gary Becker, an economist at the University of Chicago, won the Nobel Prize partly for describing the family as an economic institution -- a bit like a small firm that employs people with different skills to produce both income and a well-run household.


Economists describe a “second Industrial Revolution” in which washing machines, dishwashers and microwave ovens have reduced the value to the family “firm” of employing a domestic specialist. Cheap clothes can be imported from China, rather than sewn at home. Healthy meals can be purchased from the freezer at Trader Joe’s.

As a result, our grandparents’ marriages, in which husband and wife have separate roles and spheres, are no longer so popular. Two-earner couples have become the norm, and families spend less time on housework.

... !!! marriage has evolved !!! and bc of the emergence of hedonic marriages - divorce rates are up.
change  divorce  rate  hedonic  marriage  academia  economic  history  economics  marriage  relationship  relationships  economic-thought  same-sex  marriage  gay  marriage 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Why the euro is doomed to fall apart: it was an incredibly stupid idea in the first place – Telegraph Blogs
The euro was and is an insane economic idea balanced on the nonsense upon stilts of a very silly indeed political ideal.
And, let me remind you, just because you want to ignore economics does not mean that economics is going to ignore you.

- the euro was and is very idealistic. and was sold with threats from the past. -
- yes it would have worked if fiscal policy and other stuff was unified. - they got only half way through their idea, ... a bridge not finished.
sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Germany  policy  folly  policy  error  political  economy  politics  economic-thought  economic  history  Europe  Euro 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Sparpolitik verstärkt die Schuldenkrise in Griechenland - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Was heute der Euro für Griechenland, war für Weimar die starre Bindung der Reichsmark ans Gold.


Politicians making a huge error. Not letting Greece exit.
austerity  policy  folly  policy  error  Europe  Germany  angelamerkel  politics  political  economy  economic-thought  economic  history  greatrecession  GFC  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  Grecce 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Daily chart: Give us austerity, but not yet | The Economist
in good times as in bad, governments will find reasons to spend more than they receive in revenue.

...Germany, demanding austerity from PIIGS ... is one that does it as well, spend more than it take in in revenue (on a national level).
austerity  angelamerkel  Germany  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  Europe  politicalscience  political  economy  economic  history  economic-thought  election2012  politics  sovereign  debt  crisis  government  government  spending  governance 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Those Revolting Europeans -
It was actually kind of funny to see the apostles of orthodoxy trying to portray the cautious, mild-mannered François Hollande as a figure of menace. He is “rather dangerous,” declared The Economist, which observed that he “genuinely believes in the need to create a fairer society.” Quelle horreur!

What is true is that Mr. Hollande’s victory means the end of “Merkozy,” the Franco-German axis that has enforced the austerity regime of the past two years. This would be a “dangerous” development if that strategy were working, or even had a reasonable chance of working. But it isn’t and doesn’t; it’s time to move on. Europe’s voters, it turns out, are wiser than the Continent’s best and brightest.

What’s wrong with the prescription of spending cuts as the remedy for Europe’s ills? One answer is that the confidence fairy doesn’t exist — that is, claims that slashing government spending would somehow encourage consumers and businesses to spend more have been overwhelmingly refuted ...
economic-thought  2012  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  politics  election2012  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  austerity  sarkozy  angelamerkel  FrancoisHollande  paulkrugman 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Bad Models Mistook Housing Bust for Dot-Com Bubble - Bloomberg
The problem with forecasting: it is based on the past, a past model. The world is changing ... every week, every year ...

The problem is that the macroeconometric models used by the Fed -- like those used by the Congressional Budget Office, the White House and others -- had at best a very rudimentary financial sector built into them. As a result, they took into account the macroeconomic impact from the housing bust -- but for the most part didn’t reflect the concentrated loss of wealth and degree of leverage in the financial industry.
In other words, the official models effectively ignored the very distinction that Bernanke highlighted as being crucial to distinguishing the housing collapse from the tech bust. And so the models completely missed the recession’s severity.
economic  model  economist  econometrics  subprime  bubble  dotcom  bubbles  academics  academia  economics  forecast  greatrecession  GFC  economic-thought  economic  history 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Schuldenkrise: Es ist Zeit für einen neuen Kapitalismus - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Humankapitalismus statt Finanzkapitalismus

Mit den Ergebnissen dieser Fehlentwicklungen hat Europa heute zu kämpfen. Eine sinnentleerte Volkswirtschaft ist nicht mehr in der Lage, den Wohlstand zu mehren. Sie erstickt in ihren Schulden und geht unter. Herausfinden wird Europa aus dieser Lage nur, indem es die Interessen der Menschen in den Mittelpunkt stellt. Nur die Kreativität des menschlichen Geistes, der Neues ersinnt, wird die derzeitige Krise überwinden können.

Dementsprechend müssen sich Unternehmen und ganze Volkswirtschaften organisieren: Bildung, Kultur, kreative Freiräume - Humankapitalismus statt Finanzkapitalismus.

Gerade die aufstrebenden Länder Asiens und Lateinamerikas beobachten uns sehr genau. "Finden wir eine demokratische Lösung? Oder lassen wir alles in Staatsbankrotten und Inflation den Bach runtergehen?", sagte mir kürzlich ein Euro-Notenbanker. Wie viel sind Demokratie und Freiheit eigentlich wert, wenn die europäischen Kulturnationen keinen Ausweg [findet].
politics  democracy  foreignaffairs  China  Asia  BRIC  greatrecession  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  USA  Europe  history  capitalism  economic-thought  economic  history 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
Recovery – Who are We Kidding?
In our assessment, what we see unfolding is the latest chapter in the tug of war between inflationary and deflationary forces. During the “goldilocks” economy of the last decade, investors levered themselves up. Homeowners treated their homes as if they were ATMs; banks set up off-balance sheet Special Investment Vehicles (SIVs); governments engaging in arrangements to get cheap loans that may cost future generations dearly. Cumulatively, it was an amazing money generation process; yet, central banks remained on the sidelines, as inflation – according to the metrics focused on - appeared contained. Indeed, we have argued in the past that central banks lost control of the money creation process, as they could not keep up with the plethora of “financial innovation” that justified greater leverage. It was only a matter of time before the world no longer appeared quite so risk-free. Rational investors thus reduced their exposure: de-levered. ...
mandate  monetarism  monetary  theory  economics  economic-thought  economic  history  paulvolcker  2012  deflation  inflation  Leverage  policy  folly  policy  error  QE  reflation  fiatmoney  fiat  currency  money  creation  process  oversight  WallStreet  regulation  FDIC  SEC  Fed  alangreenspan  benbernake  monetary  policy  greatrecession  GFC 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
Hacker Culture: The Key To Future Prosperity? | TechCrunch
I am advocating for governments in every country to recognize that the health of their economies will be increasingly dependent on whether there is a decently paved path for hackers to start companies. Leaders in both the public and private sectors should be asking questions such as: Are there excellent programs to train potential entrepreneurs and angel investors in my country? Do my country’s most talented hackers have a realistic chance to attend a relatively local, high quality accelerator? Is it easy to incorporate and invest in businesses? Is there reliable internet access in my country?

Nations should consider hackers to be a precious resource. The amount of innovation and global prosperity in the 21st Century will be directly proportional to how well we nurture this resource. What do you think is the best solution to ensure that hackers everywhere have the opportunity to become successful entrepreneurs?
mentoring  venturecapital  economics  prosperity  economic-thought  hacker  Hacking  Entrepreneurship 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Potential growth: Forever poorer? | The Economist
R.A. from the Free Exchange ... REALLY?

What we'd expect to see given a prolonged, large output gap is precisely what we have seen—wage growth that is virtually flat and inflation that remains fairly dormant even during bursts of rapid output growth. It is possible that there has been some secular erosion in potential or some permanent hit from the recession. The most parsimonious (frugal) explanation for the figures we have is that the economy is suffering from a large demand shortfall that has been inadequately treated by the central bank.

Monetary Policy is no panacea. * Bernanke

Period. More than ZIRP, clear guidance and QE (addictive) can't be done @ monetary side.

I argue that what halts back America are the emotional and psychological scars from the GFC and Great Recession, structural imbalances, misguided policy (gov subsidies, earmarks) and the effects of globalization.
greatrecession  GFC  inflation  unemployment  2012  monetary  policy  economic-thought  output-gap  America 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Explaining America's macro puzzles: The worst of all worlds | The Economist
[Americas economy] it is starting to look more like some left arms have gone missing.

What if we have next to the out-put gap also a slowdown in potential growth - that has to be factored in, due to forces of Globalization.

The path of potential output commonly downshifts after crises, as all economic participants are humans and have emotions and psychological, economic behavior - these (very likely change) due to recent trauma. Resulting in risk aversion.

Leading to the following conclusion; "I still find the demand-side explanations for the depressed state of the economy more convincing ..."
microeconomics  macroeconomics  economic-thought  psychology  Behavior  behavioral  finance  output-gap  globalisation  globalization  productivity  unemployment  greatrecession  GFC  2012  economy  economics  USA 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
The (European) Placebo Effect | ZeroHedge
So much of what I find wrong about “economics” is that it masquerades as far more of a science than it actually is. It doesn’t have theories that can be “tested” in a real world, where 2 similar situations are treated differently to see which “treatment” works better. Each economy and each situation is so different that it is IMPOSSIBLE to determine why policies failed or what should have been done differently. It is possible to come up with reasonable ideas and theories of what could have been done or should have been done, but they are only theories. The systems are so complex that finding situations with similar starting conditions with similarly motivated entities involved is simply impossible to find. The fact that so much of our policy seems to be based on research into what should have been done in the Great Depression and what has been seen in Japan is frankly scary. There is no way to “know” how the Great Depression would have turned out with a different set of policies.
ECB  Europe  folly  policy  2012  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  LTRO  austerity  economics  economic-thought  economic  history 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Monetary policy: Preventing collapse isn't enough | The Economist
"Prevention of a banking collapse is obviously an important part of economic stabilisation. But the central bank is there to facilitate labour-market clearing. The ECB is failing miserably on that score."

> but low unemployment is not their mandate, and could never be. as you would compare apples w bananas. Comparing ECB (EU) with BOE (UK) with Fed (USA).

"In other words, a higher level of euro-zone inflation should make the real wage adjustments necessary to resolve internal imbalances much easier."

> then it would not follow its mandate, price stability.
> the ECB does, what its able to to, according to its mandate and the treaty. Let the politicians break treaties, ... that is enough.

"serious structural issues"

> so you want inflation and increasingly expansionary fiscal policy (whats next, monetization?) to fix [and or sooth] the peripheries debt overhang, non-competitiveness and dysfunctional democracies?
economic-thought  economics  democracy  politics  competitiveness  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Europe  monetary  policy  ECB 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Quantum Finanzas's Marx Discusses Greece, Argentina
Quantum Finanzas's Marx Discusses Greece, Argentina (Audio)

Feb 7, 2012

Daniel Marx, executive director of Quantum Finanzas in Argentina and a former finance secretary, discusses similarities and differences between Argentina and Greece. Marx talks with Bloomberg's Sara Eisen and Michael McKee on "Bloomberg On the Economy."

- debt overhang and not being competitive in global economy is not the same ailment of Greece (PIIGS) economy. Greece has not primary surplus (and debt overhang), no competitiveness, and a deep recession and massive shadow economy.

Default and deep restructuring, plus liberal economic reforms (and fiscal policy) seem the only way out, as they don't have one tool - monetary policy.
2012  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  economic-thought  debtoverhang  competitiveness  sovereign  debt  crisis  economic  history  history  restructuring  default  Greece  Argentina 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Quantitative Easing is destroying UK economy and savers (09Deb12) - YouTube
UK is one of the worst cases of indebtedness in Western world (private + public + corporate debt to gdp).
But private debt composition is different to other western nations due to ie mortgages.
2012  monetary  policy  BOE  UK  lesson  Japan  QE  economic  history  economic-thought  book  RichardWerner  quantitative-easing 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Interactive Visual History Of Financial Crises Since 1810 - Note Where The Fed Arrives | ZeroHedge

"The giant wave in the top section of the graphic depicts the percentage of world GDP by region in crisis during the 200 year period. It includes the four major financial crisis types (sovereign default, banking, currency, and inflation) along with stock market crashes. The bottom section provides a detailed chart of all sovereign defaults by country, region and year. It shows the repeating nature of sovereign default, a central theme of Reinhart and Rogoff's book."

This graphic is based on the New York Times and Wall Street Journal best seller This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff. Using data developed by Reinhart and Rogoff, it maps the cyclical history of financial crisis from 1810 to 2010 for sixty-six countries representing 90% of world GDP.
book  KennethRogoff  economic-thought  economic  history  carmenreinhart  infographics  financialcrisis  history 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Vier tickende Geldbomben bedrohen Europa - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
1. ECB's LTRO does not solve sovereign debt problem
2. Greece
2.5 Portugal
3. Spain
4. Europe's National Central Banks seem to go under .... Target2; ECB's interbank payment system.

"Für die Bundesbank ergeben sich daraus Forderungen von fast einer halben Billion Euro gegenüber der EZB, eine Summe, die mit jedem Monat der Krise weiter wächst."
PIIGS  Germany  sarkozy  angelamerkel  politics  political  economy  bundesbank  ECB  faultlines  structural  imbalance  target2-system  Spain  economic-thought  balance  sheet  recession  richardkoo  Greece  LTRO  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Bill Gross On Minsky's Take Of The Liquidity Trap: From "Hedge" To "Securitised" To "Ponzi" | ZeroHedge
"What incentive does a US bank have to extend maturity to a two- or three-year term when Treasury rates at that level of the curve are below the 25 basis points available to them overnight from the Fed? What incentive does Pimco or banks have to buy five-year Treasuries at 75bp when the maximum upside capital gain is two per cent of par and the downside substantially more?" In other words, Pimco is finally grasping just how ZIRP is punking it and its clients. It also means that very soon all the maturity, and soon, credit risk of the world will be on the shoulders of the Fed, which in turn labor under a false economic paradigm. And one wonders why nobody has any faith left in these here "capital markets"...
PIMCO  economics  economic-thought  liquidity-trap  monetary  policy  Fed  2012  ZIRP 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Austerity vs. Europe - Javier Solana - Project Syndicate
Compared to a new recession, the long-term cost of stimulus policies is insignificant. In many countries, current budget deficits are the result not of reckless government overspending, but of temporary measures to deal with the crisis. With interest rates already low and the private sector deleveraging, there is little risk of expansionary policies causing inflation or crowding out private investment. By contrast, spending reductions could undermine economic activity and increase, not decrease, the public-debt burden.

Public debt, moreover, should not be demonized. It makes financial sense for states to share the cost of public investments, such as infrastructure projects or public services, with future generations, which will also benefit from them. Debt is the mechanism by which we institutionalize intergenerational solidarity. The problem is not debt, but ensuring that it finances productive investment, that it is kept within reasonable limits, and that it can be serviced with lit
global  imbalances  Asia  USA  UK  Europe  policy  folly  politicaleconomy  economic-thought  politics  2012  austerity  malinvestment  efficiency  governance  government  public  debt 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
The Austerity Debacle. -
Last week the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a British think tank, released a startling chart comparing the current slump with past recessions and recoveries. It turns out that by one important measure — changes in real G.D.P. since the recession began — Britain is doing worse this time than it did during the Great Depression. Four years into the Depression, British G.D.P. had regained its previous peak; four years after the Great Recession began, Britain is nowhere close to regaining its lost ground.

Nor is Britain unique. Italy is also doing worse than it did in the 1930s — and with Spain clearly headed for a double-dip recession, that makes three of Europe’s big five economies members of the worse-than club. Yes, there are some caveats and complications. But this nonetheless represents a stunning failure of policy.
politics  paulsamuelson  davidcameron  trichet  economic-thought  folly  policy  Europe  greatrecession  GFC  greatdepression  2012  UK  paulkrugman  debate  austerity 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Penetrating Insights On Why The Market Feels Like A Colonoscopy | ZeroHedge
In a widely quoted experiment by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman (with others, published in 2003) over 600 subjects undergoing colonoscopies were given different versions of the same procedure. One set got essentially a short version, where the pain of the process peaked out near the end of the exam. The other group got a longer version, with the last few moments in relatively little discomfort. The second group reported much less pain when asked about the experience than the first.

Kahneman’s colonoscopy is a tailor made, if coarse, analogy to the ongoing sovereign debt woes in Europe. ...

The bottom line is that pain, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.
financialmarkets  financialcrisis  richardkoo  economic-thought  economics  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  GFC  UK  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  pain  psychology  behavioral  finance 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Nomura's Koo Plays The Pre-Blame Game For The Pessimism Ahead | ZeroHedge
While his diagnosis of the balance sheet recessionary outbreak that is sweeping global economies (including China now he fears) is a useful framework for understanding ZIRP's (and monetary stimulus broadly) general inability to create a sustainable recovery, his one-size-fits-all government-borrow-and-spend to infinity (fiscal deficits during balance sheet recessions are good deficits) solution is perhaps becoming (just as he said it would) politically impossible to implement. In his latest missive, the Nomura economist does not hold back with the blame-bazooka for the mess we are in and face in 2012.

LTRO may rescue financial system but cannot save real economy
LTRO should be viewed in similar light as Fed’s QE1

The banks effectively used funds borrowed from the Fed to meet payment obligations. The money was not used to fund new loans.
Consequently, neither bank lending nor the money supply grew despite all the liquidity injected under QE1, and inflation and growth ...
ECB  Japan  history  EBA  Basel3  economics  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  quantitative-easing  economic-thought  outlook  Europe  deflation  deleveraging  ratingagencies  LTRO  balance  sheet  recession  ZIRP  2012  2011  richardkoo  blamegame 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Eurozone burns money while the banks fiddle their balance sheets - Telegraph
ECB's LTRO is QE in stealth. A bank bailout. And one way to prop up money supply and velocity.

It buys time, politicians have to use. If not, and all else will fail - the trust of the public / society will bring a 2nd Depression and the break-off of PIIGS et al.

The market knows what is going on, thus the Euro is justifiably under 1.30.

All that, while banks need to delever and consolidate. And sovereigns need to fix their budgets and promote growth reforms to stop demand shortfall.

There is not "one" fix that addresses all problems.

OR ... politicians stand by the people and look beyond the next election.

"So eurozone governments need to stand behind retail depositors, make the financial institutions "fess-up" and let the cards fall, forcing the bombed-out European banking sector to consolidate."
complexity  Basel3  accounting  banking  PIIGS  politics  economic-thought  deleveraging  moneysupply  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Europe  monetary  policy  monetarism  monetization  debt  monetisation  LTRO  ECB 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) is biased towards anti-crony capitalism | Bill Mitchell – billy blog
1.) Abandon Crony Capitalism.
2.) Use jobs generated by 'job guarantee' to serve public good.
= then we have a chance to have a ying - yang between socialism (job guarantee) and capitalism (saving more than consuming).

full employment and price stability go hand in hand.
monetary policy is buffer stock to fiscal policy and the economic cycle ...


So I advocate – outside the realm of MMT – grass roots action to reinforce the democratic connection between citizen and government. To make it harder for governments to be co-opted. For example, I would ban political funding and allocate a fixed amount of public funds to the candidates for public office to be used for electoral purposes. I would have very strict conditions placed on electoral commentary within the media etc.

The logic has been to reduce the capacity of the financial market and political elites to capture government policy and skew the benefits in their favour
macroeconomics  employment  NAIRU  unemployment  occupywallstreet  fiat  currency  capitalism  economics  economic-thought  policy  monetary  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  theory  MMT 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
The War on Wages in the West - YouTube
Dr. Heiner Flassbeck: If wages don't rise and the "pathological" power of finance is not pushed back, we will face a deep depression


Are we in a stage of Great Pain, where the Global Economy realigns, gets leveled.
On each side something gotta give, ... inflation in Emerging and Frontier world and deflation, stagnation in the developed world.

With hindsight ... in 20 years, things will be clearer.
sovereign  bubble  debt  recession  balancesheet  richardkoo  UK  Japan  economic-thought  fiscal  policy  competitiveness  productivity  Europe  USA  history  economic  debtoverhang  stagnation  deflation  income  wages 
december 2011 by asterisk2a

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