asterisk2a + dogma + china + financial   5

Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &!
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &!
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - //&! &! Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] -
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
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july 2015 by asterisk2a

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