asterisk2a + dogma + china + confidence   5

Meet the Renegades Steve Keen - YouTube
[ chicago school of economics ] 17:25 - private debt // demand will never be again so starong as before GFC. growth of debt/credit is normal. but without growth and high debt is cancer. + current account deficit/trade deficit = means things for UK can not go in indefinitely. austerity will run its course, will not make things better. next is property bubble! and NPL as normalisation to 2% nears // China margin trading & leverage via credit bubble. property bubble. // 24:20 - there is still room to grow household/private debt. Tories treat gov budget like a household rather than a bank! UK will stumble along at lower rate than America. Will not get better! Just rearranging deck chairs of a painfully slowly sinking ship.
secular  stagnation  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  UK  USA  Japan  economic  history  car  loan  GFC  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  confidence  junk  bond  NPL  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  student  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  mortgage  market  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  austerity  dogma  neoclassical  economics  book  ideology  margin  trading  leverage  western  world  Hegemony  China  Super  Cycle 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
NiallFerguson  Niall  Ferguson  Margaret  Thatcher  economic  history  political  economy  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  book  Adam  Smith  adamsmith  austerity  ideology  dogma  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  USA  UK  China  history  social  contract  social  cohesion  social  tension  socialism  capitalism  crony  capitalism  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  hayek  reflate  reflation  Fed  ECB  BOJ  BOE  Makers  BIS  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  business  confidence  Taper  2015  secular  stagnation  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  economic  growth  global  trade  global  economy  globalization  global  imbalances  globalisation  flat  world  borderless  liquidity  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  fiscal  stimulus  aggregate  demand  marginal  propensity  to  consume  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  Richard  Koo  private  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  developed  world  western  world  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  BRIC  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Developing  Frontier  Markets  inflation  inflation  business  targetin 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet.org  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a

related tags

1%  2.0  3D  Abenomics  Abstieg  account  Adam  adamsmith  ageing  aggregate  AIIB  allocation  Angela  animal  anxiety  Asia  asset  austerity  bail  bailout  balance  bank  banking  banks  big  BIS  BOE  BOJ  bond  book  borderless  BRIC  bubble  bubbles  business  buyback  Cameron  capital  capitalism  car  card  Career  centralbanks  China  class  code  coefficient  cohesion  complexity  confidence  consequences  consume  consumer  contract  corporations  credibility  credit  crisis  crony  currency  currency-war  current  cycle  David  debasement  debt  debtoverhang  deficit  deflation  deflationary  deleveraging  demand  demographic  devaluation  developed  Developing  disposable  distortion  distribution  dogma  Eating  ECB  economic  economics  economy  emerging  equity  Europe  European  excess  expectation  exploitation  exuberance  fairness  faultlines  Fed  Ferguson  fiat  financial  financialcrisis  fiscal  flat  FOMO  for  Fortune  Frontier  gains  gap  George  Germany  Gesellschaft  GFC  Gini  global  globalisation  globalization  glut  governance  growth  hayek  Hegemony  history  hot-money  household  housing  hubris  hunt  ideology  imbalance  imbalances  Impediments  incentive  income  incomplete  Industrial  inequality  inflation  information  infrastructure  interest  investment  irrational  Is  jail  Jakobsen  Japan  JohnMaynardKeynes  junk  keynes  Keynesianism  Koo  leverage  liquidity  loan  M3  mainstreet  mainstreet.org  Makers  mandate  Manufacturing  Margaret  margin  marginal  market  Markets  maximisation  mechanism  Merkel  middle  model  modern  monetary  monetisation  monetization  mortgage  negative  neoclassical  neoliberal  neoliberalism  New  Niall  NiallFerguson  NIRP  Normal  NPL  Osborne  output  Pact  panic  PBOC  personal  policy  political  Politicians  poor  population  precarious  printing  private  Privatisation  productive  productivity  profit  propensity  property  psychology  public  QE  R&D  Raghuram  Rajan  rate  real  rebalancing  recession  recovery  reflate  reflation  repression  Research  reserve  reserves  Revolution  Rich  Richard  Richardkoo  RMB  Robert  Robotics  ROI  savings  Schuldenbremse  Schäuble  secular  servitude  shadow  share  shareholder  sheet  Shiller  short-term  Smith  social  socialism  society  socioeconomic  sociology  Software  solidarity  sovereign  Sozialer  soziologie  speculation  speculative  spirit  squeezed  stagnation  status  Steen  STEM  stimulus  Street  structural  student  Super  sustainability  sustainable  system  Taper  targeting  tax  tension  Thatcher  The  theory  to  too  toobigtofail  trade  trading  transmission  trap  trickle-down  UK  uncertainty  unconventional  underinvestment  unintended  Union  unknown  unkown  USA  value  volatility  wage  Wall  war  western  Wolfgang  work  working  world  worry  Yen  yield  Yuan  ZIRP  zombie 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: