asterisk2a + discretionary + junk + mobility   1

Profit mean reversion and recession | Credit Writedowns
We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....
recovery  business  cycle  financial  cycle  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  Student  Loan  Bubble  car  credit  card  debt  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  austerity  fiscal  policy  economic  history  monetary  policy  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  western  world  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  inequality  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  UK  USA  Schuldenbremse  Pact  sovereign  debt  crisis  Positioning  Germany  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  crony  capitalism  reflate  reflation  Career  Politicians  constituency  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Niedriglohnsektor  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  income  inequality  social  mobility  social  contract  political  theory  income  mobility  Standard  American  Diet  equity  credit  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BRIC  BOE  Fed  Fed  mandate  BOJ  PBOC  distortion  2015  ECB  Super  debt  servitude  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  Taper  QT  irrational  exuberance  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  speculative  bubbles  commodity  prices  Oil  price  inflation  expe 
october 2015 by asterisk2a

related tags

allocation  American  asset  austerity  avoidance  bailout  bank  banks  BOE  BOJ  bond  BRIC  Bubble  bubbles  budget  business  capital  capitalism  car  card  Career  coefficient  commodity  constituency  consumer  contract  corporate  corporations  creation  credit  crisis  crony  cycle  debt  debtoverhang  deficit  deflationary  deleveraging  Diet  discretionary  disposable  distortion  distribution  ECB  economic  economics  equity  evasion  expectation  exuberance  fairness  Fed  Ferguson  financial  fiscal  Generationengerechtigkeit  Germany  Gini  growth  history  household  income  inequality  inflation  irrational  job  Jobs  junk  Koo  Loan  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  low  mandate  mobility  monetary  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Niall  Niedriglohnsektor  NIRP  Oil  Pact  PBOC  policy  political  Politicians  Positioning  price  prices  private  QE  QT  recovery  reflate  reflation  Richard  Schuldenbremse  Sector  secular  Service  servitude  social  sovereign  speculative  spending  stagnation  Standard  Street  Student  Super  Taper  tax  theory  trickle-down  UK  USA  wage  Wall  welfare  western  world  ZIRP  zombie 

Copy this bookmark: