asterisk2a + discretionary + investment   39

(112) Renegade Inc. & What to expect in 2018 - YouTube
UK BOE QE trap - the road to normalisation - without counter engagement (productive investment), and further Austerity, tax evasion, inequality, income gap, secular stagnarion, less money to spend for the average joe === very bumpy uncertain ride. ... and add Brexit even more uncertainty. OUCH. real growth for real people not gonna happen. // see also RAWerden Richard Andreas Werner for bank reform (local non-profit et al) // also consumers will hold back. especially w trickle down of bad news. job losses here and there retail inflation wage growth etc. creating a impression of a malaise especially for the 50% who voted remain. and 30% who didnt go vote. // see also news 8or7 out of 10 workers broke/permanently skinned - and consumer debt at 2008 high //
BOE  QE  trap  Richard  Koo  UK  Austerity  productive  investment  underinvestment  productivity  Brexit  Steve  Keen  book  RAWerner  debt  bubble  asset  alternative  WallStreet  GDP  output  gap  uncertainty  2018  business  consumer  confidence  fiscal  policy  NHS  monetary  Carillion  PFI  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  malaise  secular  stagnation  stagflation 
february 2018 by asterisk2a
UK pay squeeze breaks all sorts of records for all the wrong reasons | Larry Elliott | Business | The Guardian
As John Philpott, who runs the Jobs Economist consultancy, noted: “What’s remarkable is that pay growth, however measured, is so weak at a time when employment is at joint record rate of 74.8% and unemployment at a 42-year low of 4.6%, driven almost entirely in the latest quarter by relatively strong growth in full-time jobs for employees on permanent contracts. Hard times and near full employment make strange bedfellows, highlighting the extent to which a deregulated labour market with an abundance of workers available to fill low wage vacancies has altered the UK jobs landscape.”
UK  Brexit  GE2017  Austerity  wage  income  growth  inflation  living  standard  disposable  discretionary  spending  creditcard  credit  card  household  debt  personal  loan  secular  stagnation  GFC  recovery  bank  bailout  inequality  poverty  trap  tax  evasion  avoidance  taxation  capital  investment  economic  history 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Yes this really is the end of Tory austerity – because it was never about economics in the first place | The Independent
[private sector will pick up the tap - the households did, but not corporations! bc long-term ROI growth in not attractive in the west w secular stagnation! see Richard Koo ] But it was a very long time coming. It became clear within a year of George Osborne’s 2010 “emergency budget”, which forced through huge cuts in capital budgets and an intense squeeze on Whitehall departments and welfare spending, that the austerity medicine was hurting, not helping.

The economy was flatlining, teetering on the verge of recession. Whether this was primarily due to the crisis in the neighbouring eurozone and a spike in global oil prices or because the negative knock-on impact of the government’s domestic spending cuts was bigger than initially thought is still debated by economists.
Austerity  Brexit  GE2017  Confidence  Fairy  GFC  bank  bailout  welfare  state  living  standard  deficit  debt  government  household  personal  loan  credit  card  creditcard  underinvestment  inequality  economic  history  social  mobility  income  growth  wage  disposable  discretionary  spending  gini  coefficient  tax  evasion  avoidance  taxation  corporate  taxcut  capital  labour  Productivity  output  gap  recovery  secular  stagnation  infrastructure  investment  Privatisation  Theresa  May  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Ideology  neoliberal  neoliberalism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bond  bubble  asset  reflation  housing  distortion  malinvestment  stimulus  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  RichardKoo  Koo  Richard 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Oh for the 1960s! People earned less but could afford more | Money | The Guardian
[ fetish of GDP ] Economic growth since the 1960s has been real, but the link between growth and personal prosperity has broken down, probably since the 1990s. We can carry on pushing for increases in GDP, but it’s meaningless unless it translates into a recovery in living standards. If any government really wants to help the left-behinds, then cutting house prices and rents must be their first priority.
GDP  wage  growth  income  distribution  economic  history  profit  maximisation  capitalism  crony  oligopoly  monopoly  Platform  Self-Employment  Productivity  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  globalisation  Competition  liberal  reform  competitiveness  disposable  discretionary  spending  investment  creditcard  credit  GFC  recovery  Austerity  secular  stagnation  taxation  1%  Super  Rich  Plutocracy  10%  20%  bank  bailout  Privatisation  outsourcing  offshore  banking  tax  evasion  avoidance  child 
december 2016 by asterisk2a
IMF urges more spending to boost growth
Fund’s steering committee calls for more forceful stimulus and warns monetary policy alone is not enough //&! http://www.theguardian.com/business/imf //&! bit.ly/1V9pfhD - IMF chief: regulators long 'alarmed' over Panama's handling of taxation. Christine Lagarde responds to Panama Papers revelations, noting that authorities were concerned but did not take ‘expected’ action.
secular  stagnation  Panama  Papers  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  corporate  tax  rate  labour  market  job  market  Service  Sector  Jobs  income  tax  receipts  budget2016  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  election  campaign  promises  Party  Funding  Richard  Koo  Confidence  Fairy  austerity  underinvestment  Generationengerechtigkeit  triple-lock  pension  fairness  Generation  Rent  Housing  Crisis  property  bubble  USA  UK  reflation  reflate  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  GFC  sovereign  debt  banking  bank  bailout  job  creation  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  IMF  OECD  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  recovery  Germany  economic  history  2016  Niall  Ferguson  budget  deficit  offshore  banking  investment  banking  TBTF  self-regulation  Greed  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  globalisation  globalization  global  economy  Oil  price  commodity  prices  ChristineLagarde  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  mobility  social  mobility  low  pay  low  income  tax  credit  child  poverty  food  poverty  health  care  cost  health  care  demand  western  world  European  Union  Brussels  Brexit  Grexit  sick  population  health  economic  Union  Union  investment  policy  fiscal  me 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Tyler Cowen: "The Great Stagnation", Michael Vassar & Cowen Debate at Singularity Summit 2011
gains are harder to come by! low hanging fruit gone. [...] VISION IS NEEDED TO GET THE JOB DONE.
secular  stagnation  western  world  underinvestment  R&D  R&D  innovation  Innovators  Dilemma  rentier  rent-seeking  oligopol  oligopoly  winner  take  all  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  austerity  triple-lock  pension  pension  obligation  recovery  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  No  Representation  lobby  Career  Politicians  OAP  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  sick  population  health  crisis  economic  damage  climate  crisis  climate  change  global  warming  productivity  gap  output  gap  GDP  measurement  GNP  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  BRIC  creative  destruction  Mobile  Debt  Super  Cycle  servitude  servicing  service  income  tax  receipts  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Moore's  Law  COP21  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  OECD  IMF  crony  capitalism  Privileged  Establishment  shareholder  capitalism  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  shareholder  value  revolving  door  Wall  Street  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  disposable  income  trickle-down  economics  neoliberal  neoliberalism  discretionary  spending  renewable  energy  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  AI  artificial  intelligence  augmented  intelligence  Autonomous  Cars  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  New  stagnation 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News
[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  macroprudential  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  aggregate  demand  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  policy  folly  policy  error  consumer  debt  household  debt  budget  deficit  recovery  mortgage  market  credit  bubble  GFC  bank  bailout  BOE  zombie  banks  rentier  rent-seeking  Richard  Koo  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  zombie  consumer  industrial  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  herding  herd  hunt  for  yield  leverage  margin  trading  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  VAR  CDO  CDS  risk  aversion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  inequality  UK  generational  contract  lost  generation  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
UK trade deficit widens further as exports suffer | Business | The Guardian
Nevertheless, the UK’s goods trade gap with the rest of the world widened by £1.9bn to a record high of £125bn in 2015. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said: “UK exports have clearly struggled in recent months, as they have been hampered by sterling’s overall strength in 2015, particularly against the euro, and moderate global demand. [...] Recent declines in the value of sterling are expected to support exports sales, though the deteriorating global situation could mitigate against an improved exchange rate. [...] “Nonetheless, any progress in reducing the trade deficit is likely to be extremely slow in the near term, leaving the recovery reliant on domestic demand.” [...] [ you can lower your corp tax, but if your country is shitty in business environment ie infrastructure and employee qualifications and immigration ... nobody wants to do business ]
UK  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  tax  reciepts  2015  2016  recovery  secular  stagnation  underinvestment  business  investment  austerity  economic  history  global  economy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  Student  Bubble  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  government  spending  disposable  income  generation  rent  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  property  Housing  Crisis  George  Osborne  competitiveness  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  corporate  tax  rate  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  immigration  migration  Super  Cycle 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
As growth falters, Osborne hopes Mark Carney can keep a lid on interest rates | Business | The Guardian
The chancellor faces lower GDP and lower tax receipts as a result. So it’s vital that consumers’ desire to keep spending isn’t hit by a nasty shock from the Bank [ // Confidence Fairy // ] The Bank of England has downgraded its forecasts for the UK’s GDP growth and the outlook for wages, most likely robbing the exchequer of vital income tax receipts. And without the funds to maintain pensions and health service spending, his critics will gleefully play back the speech from last November during which he declared that Britain was on the road to becoming “the most prosperous and secure of all the major nations of the world”. [...] Yet his words ring hollow when so many of the post-crash problems are still with us, from the burden of high private and public debts to Europe’s rapidly ageing population, which encourage saving over investment, and a reluctance from government and big business to boost capital spending.
George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  2016  2015  Mark  Carney  BOE  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  subprime  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  UK  GDP  output  gap  productivity  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  economic  history  austerity  underinvestment  business  investment  public  investment  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Paul  Krugman  David  Cameron  nasty  party  Conservative  Tories  short-termism  credit  bubble  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Funding  1%  financial  repression  New  Normal  constituency  babyboomers  oligarchy  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  inequality  plutocracy  Super  Rich  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  income  growth  low  pay  low  income  wage  growth  economic  growth  precarious  work  Precariat  tax  credit  tax  free  income  corporate  tax  rate  minimum  wage  budget2015  Food  Bank  foreign  direct  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  western  world  USA  European  Union  ageing  population  CapEx  Capital  Expenditure  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
The roof is being fixed but beware the house crashing beneath it | Business | The Guardian
Consumer spending is driving economic growth but household debt and the house price-income ratio is at a record high. Be afraid [...] It is worth recalling that when Osborne became chancellor five and a half years ago that he had two big objectives. The first was to repair the hole in the public finances, which is still very much a work in progress. The other was to shift the centre of gravity of the economy back towards making things for export. This remains a pipedream. [...] Despite the welcome pickup in business investment, the main driver of growth has been consumer spending, which has been boosted by low interest rates, the fall in inflation caused by lower oil prices, and a modest acceleration in earnings. [...] “not the ideal shape for the recovery” and it can say that again. The current recovery looks like all the previous recoveries. [...] “Fast-rising household debt is needed to maintain a reasonable rate of growth in consumers’ spending and GDP in a world of austerity ...
household  debt  consumer  debt  zombie  consumer  recovery  credit  card  debt  credit  card  materialism  status  anxiety  USA  UK  Super  Cycle  debtoverhang  mortgage  market  Housing  Crisis  debt  servitude  NPL  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  student  loan  debt  debt  bubble  student  debt  private  debt  economic  growth  GFC  fiscal  policy  austerity  industrial  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  competitive  competitiveness  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  David  Cameron  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  economic  history  energy  policy  energy  price  STEM  Manufacturing  diversity  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  Amber  Rudd  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  consumerist  consumerism  trickle-down  economics  status  symbol  market  affordable  social  budget2015  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Precariat  tax  credit 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Blackrock-Vize Hildebrand kritisiert europäische Behörden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Hildebrand: Nein, dafür sehe ich keine Anzeichen. Aber was mich schon besorgt, ist das Muster, dass frappantes Fehlverhalten europäischer Firmen immer wieder von amerikanischen Behörden aufgedeckt wird. Das scheint mir das wahre Problem zu sein. Ich denke da nicht nur an VW, sondern auch an die Banken oder an die Fifa. [...] Die Amerikaner dagegen sind das Problem schon 2009 angegangen, und die Banken sind schnell wieder gesundet. In Europa hat man es unter den Teppich gekehrt. [...] Europa hat zwei Probleme, und ein wesentliches davon ist ein Nachfrageproblem: Die Wirtschaft ist nicht ausgelastet, auch die Arbeitslosigkeit ist nach wie vor zu hoch. Und die Inflation liegt nahe null. [...] Europa hat auch ein Strukturproblem. Arbeits- und Produktmärkte sind überreguliert. [ Re Credit Bubble ] Niemand weiß genau, was geschieht, wenn diese Politik einmal umgekehrt wird.
VW  bank  bailout  FIFA  corporate  scandal  Volkswagen  sovereign  debt  crisis  too  big  to  bail  Grexit  European  Union  secular  stagnation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  deregulation  accountability  white-collar  crime  banking  investment  banking  retail  banking  recovery  MarioDraghi  ECB  NIRP  ZIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  GFC  economic  history  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  fiscal  monetary  Brussels  lost  decade  lostgeneration  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  austerity  Pact  Schuldenbremse  underinvestment  productive  investment  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  emerging  middle  class  discretionary  spending  Sozialer  Abstieg  income  distribution  disposable  income  Brexit  credit  bubble  BRIC  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  Niall  Ferguson 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert Reich - Timeline Photos
In some cities – San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, New York – it’s 40 to 50 percent. What’s the solution? Part of it is better public transportation – so people can live further away from where they work, in affordable housing. But rather than invest more in public transportation, America is disinvesting. We're spending a smaller percentage of our GDP on public transit now than at any time since World War II. Why? Ask Republicans in Congress and in state legislatures.
dogma  ideology  USA  infrastructure  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  public  transportation  transportation  commuting  Richard  Wolff  Robert  Reich  austerity  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  gentrification  Gentrified  urban  planning  urbanisation  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  tax  rate  crony  capitalism  capitalism 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
UK's most expensive city facing 'catastrophe' - BBC News
shortage of supply = unaffordable = nobody can afford to live there, work there, study there. or have to commute from out of town for 1 hour or more. // this is not only a problem in Oxford. NHS Grampian has problems of recruiting because unaffordable house prices and rents pushed up by Oil Industry and the lack of new housing. Same for teaching jobs. // all the while building companies make pumper profits and even skirt around the edges to lower the ratio of social and affordable housing they have to provide with each new big project. its in their interest, if prices were to fell, they would make less money. so they build not enough to keep up with demand at all. and not enough so each new builds profit rises because of risen demand and people willing to pay more for the same house or flat from previous year or two or three despite no real improvement in the build technically/energy efficiency wise/or architecture wise - modern, wide open, big windows. //
UK  Housing  Crisis  green  belt  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  generation  rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  babyboomers  vested  interest  interest  groups  mortgage  market  shared  economic  interest  commuting  quality  of  life  standard  of  living  cost  of  living  city  living  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  underinvestment  productive  investment  NHS  Grampian  Public  Services  Social  Services  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hot-money  credit  bubble  China  capitalism  collusion  Policy  Makers  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  affordable  cost  of  entry  cost  center  cost  of  ownership  cost  of  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  democracy  interest  minority  folly  error  competitive  competitiveness  macroprudential  Buy  to  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  fiscal  austerity  deprivation  urbanisation  urban  planning  monetary  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  general  election  2020  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Entitlement  Millennials  generationy 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Fed chief Yellen says US rate rise still likely this year - BBC News
The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets
Janet  Yellen  Fed  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  secular  stagnation  western  world  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  QT  petrodollar  Petroleum  Industry  commodity  prices  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  Brazil  Russia  India  BIS  Richard  Koo  global  economy  global  trade  2015  BOE  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  private  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Student  deleveraging  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  economics  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  competitive  competition  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  recovery  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  bubble  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  Super  Rich  1%  hot-money  currency-war  currency  war  currency  debasement  Dollar  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  distortion  irrational  exuberance  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  USA  UK 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The new right to buy is solving 1979’s problems at today’s expense | Gaby Hinsliff | Comment is free | The Guardian
This Thatcherite policy revival fails to recognise that the main cause of the housing crisis is affordability //&! Housing bill needs radical, long-term measures to reform the market. As well as increasing supply, the government needs to use the tax system to make buy-to-let less attractive as an investment - bit.ly/1PDxWe3
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
UK productivity lags behind rest of G7 - BBC News
"Since the economic downturn, productivity growth has slowed in most developed economies, but by more in the UK than the average." The Chancellor, George Osborne, pledged in July to take steps to encourage more long-term investment in infrastructure and by businesses to boost productivity. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight, said British productivity had been held back since the financial crisis by the creation of lots of low-skilled, low-paid jobs where productivity is limited. However, Institute of Directors chief economist James Sproule said that UK firms should focus on "agility" rather than productivity. "The economy of the future looks set to be dominated not by big companies, but by fast, agile, quick-moving and reactive ones," he said. "The firms that can respond to consumer demands most effectively and bring new products and services to market will reap the rewards."
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
RICHARD KOO: 'Struggle between markets and central banks has only just begun' - Business Insider
… much of the rise in share prices and fall in currency values under QE were nothing more than liquidity-driven phenomena divorced from real economy fundamentals. Now that an end to QE is in sight, it is time for a correction. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks several months ago about elevated stock market valuations were most likely a reference to this bubble. A correction of some kind was inevitable as the Fed moved to normalize monetary policy. However, it still needed a trigger, and that was provided by China. [...] “The market gyrations of the last two months represent just the beginning of the QE trap”, says Koo.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Labour leadership races can change fast; interest rates, not so much | Business | The Guardian
The fact of the matter is that, while George Osborne is obsessed with shrinking the size of the public sector and causing hardship and misery, the real crisis in this country concerns not the size of the budget deficit, but the record peacetime balance-of-payments deficit of a whopping 6% of GDP. With this in mind, John Llewellyn and Russell Jones of Llewellyn Consulting have been urging the Bank to encourage the overvalued pound to fall towards more realistic levels, to avoid an almighty sterling crisis when the markets finally wake up to the real crisis in the British economy.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Vince Cable: ‘Historically, the coalition will be seen as a success’ – interview | Politics | The Guardian
[A] look at the post-crash global economy, is the first fruit of that freedom. After toeing the line for five years, he can go public with his criticisms of chancellor George Osborne’s handling of the economy. He warns that the emphasis on consumption rather than investment, the continuing reliance on house price inflation as the driver of growth, the decline in productivity and innovation mean fundamental problems are not being addressed. He is also the first minister to lift the lid on the coalition: we learn the Tories could be likable colleagues but “collectively appalling, with ugly tribal prejudices”; that Osborne and David Cameron were unable “to move Theresa May an inch”; that Osborne’s Treasury effectively controlled government, with a hands-off Cameron; and that, in Cable’s view, Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander were too accepting of the Treasury line. [...] [ Cameron the PR man, being in office for the sake of just being in Office ] &! bit.ly/1KROBLk
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine - Bloomberg View
It turns out investors were right about Alibaba: No company is more on the front lines of China's economic shifts than Jack Ma's juggernaut. And that's just where the problems begin. [...] After months of putting the entire weight of the government behind saving the market, Beijing appears to have given up. The fallout from that realization will have unpredictable effects on 1.3 billion people indoctrinated to believe Beijing can control any crisis or narrative. As markets swoon and gross domestic product slides, consumers are delaying nonessential purchases. [...] Mass austerity has only just begun. [...] it would be interesting to see how the government responds to "large and widespread investment losses that could lead to a notable negative wealth effect which could weaken consumption, as well as grievances against the authorities." [...] Macau's GDP -26.4% last quarter [...] Chinese gamblers stayed home. [...] Ma created a better quarterly GDP report than Beijing.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Duncan: The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression - YouTube
50 year long debt super cycle & credit bubble up-held. Put. // hasnt created inflation because of Globalisation = deflationary! [3bn ppl living on $2/day] Collapse of marginal cost of labour, offsetting inflation pressure of QE/NIRP/credit creation last decades. // Will eventually haunt people back once globalisation has run its way in ~100-75 years & the world is actually flat. energy cost 0, marginal cost 0, economics of abundance. // // min 23 AND because of this deflationary pressure of globalisation, excess capacity, etc lead to wage stagnation & or pressure to work 4 less (Contractor, Werkvertrag, Zeitarbeit, self-employment, Zero Hour Contract, outsourcing) and longer, in western world. Leads inevitably 2 being pushed into recession & avoiding that authorities always pushed button 4 more credit. Credit growth prevented western world not 2 be pushed into recession in last decades. 2010 Private Sector cant drive recovery! Massive Gov stimulus needed +10 years, not austerity!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Yellen: There's Still Slack in Labor Markets - YouTube
>> signs that a debt fuelled recovery doesn't fix the long standing (since 90's 2000's post dot.com) underlying fundamentals of an economy. // low wage low productivity jobs especially part-time and minimum wage - doe not have an economic multiplier as a whole, they cost the economy or are at least net-net 0. // it is the same in UK. and signs show in Germany as well. // &! subprime was one of many predatory lending practices to financial illiterate ppl and exploitation of the underbanked/unbanked, and banks also choose to charge minorities higher interest rates - youtu.be/CbW9mH7p_8E + and add also practices of Payday Loans. Those things are a symptoms of the system at large. Resulting in the Poverty Trap.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
The escape from the balance sheet recession and the QE trap: An interview with Richard Koo - YouTube
"deflationary" is a symptom of balance sheet recession, deleveraging, debtoverhang ... of the private sector, corporate sector (& public gov sector) (to repair balance sheet). inflation of price of goods 2 live is still existent. you cant eat laptops. inflation is still present. actions of private sector, corporate sector to repair balance sheet (and even public sector, all three together) is deflationary. // UK! interesting is that consumer still borrows ie via credit card and mortgages. // question is how long UK can run such a big current account deficit. somebody has to pay for it, if not the gov with debt, then it has to be the private sector. as long as it can serve debt payments, as long as it has wage growth (increase of productivity, closing of output gap). But job creation during recovery was mostly Service Sector Jobs & self-employment. Not added value STEM. // corporate sector will not, in the long-run, pay for current account deficit w debt. &! youtu.be/EhYvaMc3f44
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Davos 2015: Nouriel Roubini says Income Inequality Creates U.S. Plutocracy - YouTube
- shown hurting growth. US growth is dependent on consumer spending. stupid. hacking off the only leg one has is not smart. // established economic truth ! Paul Krugman: Inequality Actually Bad for Growth - youtu.be/cRMi8_M681U &! Paul Krugman & Tony Atkinson in Conversation | Inequality and Economic Growth - youtu.be/3l6E3mUNW70 &! &! What's Really Driving Income Inequality: Orszag - youtu.be/XJ_raBX7oq8 ( only added value jobs STEM - pays for work and shows wage growth, not so in service sector jobs. UK recovery showed it; lots of service sector job creation than any other type of job + Lohnzurueckhalting (no leverage to demand higher wage than just minimum wage or little above bc outside the door waits the one who will replace you) = no wage growth in the first couple of years of recovery and no productivity growth and persistent output gap (below potential) )
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
UK's inflation rate falls to 0% - BBC News
bit.ly/1IXuomp >> Carney: Current account deficit is a risk highlighted by FPC. UK is relying on the kindness of strangers to finance current account deficit. Household borrowing isn't driving the deficit Tighter fiscal policy is needed. Tighter macroeconomic policy is needed also. Deficit highlights importance of maintaining the attractiveness of the UK for foreign investment // &! bit.ly/1I07olT - BOE's Miles doesn't see secular stagnation in the UK [...] Carney - Health of the financial system is likely to boost productivity [really?] [...] McCafferty: Low income jobs have kept productivity low &! bit.ly/1JfaSxr - Bank is looking at the household sensitivity to rate rises [ mortgage bubble will prevent BOE to raise rates faster as demand stokes as more disposable income is spend on serving interest payments thus depressing GDP growth bc 70% of it is consumer spending ] &! bit.ly/1HtySg1
current  account  deficit  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  fairness  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  George  Osborne  productivity  output  gap  industrial  policy  STEM  Higher  Education  added  value  fiscal  policy  Public  infrastructure  investment  recovery  economic  history  competitiveness  competitive  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  borderless  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  zombie  banks  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  market  labour  economics  skills  gap  policy  vocational  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  squeezed  middle  class  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  household  debt  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  underemployed  self-employment  employability  part-time  mortgage  market  BOE  2015  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  Manufacturing  fiscal  stimulus  Taper  USA  negative  real  interest  rate  interestrate  debt  servicing  interest  payment  consumer  debt 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Who Will Be Hurt Most When The Tech Bubble Bursts? Not VCs | TechCrunch
In a nutshell, FOMO is driving many investors in a hustle to be a part of the next Facebook or Twitter and put in huge investments for a fraction of stake. And, they don’t see much risk in it as long as they get the downside protection. [ growth round = rocket fuel splashed onto stuff to acquire more customers and market share (basically, but not always) ] [...] Someday, pretty soon, these will be put to the test, and valuations based on visibility of earnings will matter again. A few will succeed of course, but several others will fall – it remains to be seen how miserably. VCs will most likely walk away with their invested money, if not more. It’s the employees and founders who will see their million-dollar dreams crash and burn. [living beyond ur means & betting dollars you dont have on a time that seems further away than u can even guess (secular stagnation)] [lack of income growth (across the western world) thus disposable income (discretionary spending) is also not helping]
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may 2015 by asterisk2a
Macroeconomics Causes of Inequality - YouTube
"consumption drives much of the economy" // free up disposable income >> free child care, health care, limit exploitation of financial illiterate people (% interest on pay day loans, overdraft charges, dispo), public services, social services, pension contribution by state (preventing poverty at old age), tax credits for low income and children and carers, free education and vocational education/continual education - enabling to move up the ladder, // min11 - secular stagnation post GFC compared to previous recessions in terms of real household demand (balance sheet recession, debt overhang, deleveraging (debt repayment), and lack of new issuance of consumer credit I guess, too + rising income equality! lower redistribution from top to bottom (fair taxation) reduces recycling of income (freed up by policy items above) into demand. // min 18 - top 5% society (luxury, vanity, status) takes over bottom 80% society in aggregate terms of consumption. Economy driven by WHOM?! Affluent!
income  inequality  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  vocational  education  education  policy  Gini  coefficient  Makers  squeezed  middle  class  middle  class  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  savings  Proletariat  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  Super  Rich  1%  tax  free  income  Universal  Basic  tax  credit  tax  code  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  consumption  consumerist  consumer  credit  creation  budget  deficit  exploitation  shareholder  value  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Zero  Hour  Contract  productivity  Werkvertrag  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  contractor  outsourcing  fairness  unrecht  bailout  Career  Politicians  gender  pay  gap  policy  folly  policy  error  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  working  class  Blue-collar  Worker  White-collar  Worker  knowledge  GFC  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  secular  stagnation  austerity  UK  USA  economic  history  recovery  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Schuldenbremse  Pact  Western  World  Europe  deflationary  consumer  debt  consumer  confidence  dot.com  Privileged  Establishment  convenience  on-demand  innovation  Silicon  Valley  wealth  distribution  income  distribution  income  growth  income  gap  redistrib 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
Larry Summers: I'm Concerned U.S. Growth Won't Pick Up - YouTube
Not enough investment in productive entities that create living wage & middle class jobs. // credit induced growth & exhaustion of easy growth (China) // Debt Fueled Growth ends rarely gently. (GFC) // western world >> too little internal demand, its deflation and inflation
secular  stagnation  output  gap  productivity  Western  World  lost  decade  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Wall  Street  precarious  work  Precariat  USA  UK  Europe  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  ROI  hunt  for  yield  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  lost  generation  living  wage  structural  imbalance  Impediments  globalisation  globalization  borderless  competitiveness  competitive  competition  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  Service  Sector  Jobs  Niedriglohnsektor  Services  Industry  economy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  Germany  middle  class  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Werkvertrag  exploitation  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  deflationary  productive  investment  Food  Stamps  Aufstocker  ALG2  hartz-iv  austerity  Larry  Summers 
may 2015 by asterisk2a

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