asterisk2a + discretionary + impediments   12

Behind the Bond-Stock Divide Is a Big and Risky Bet on Central Banks - WSJ
The idea is that if stocks are rising, bond yields should be climbing too. Here's how to reconcile it. The answer is central banks. If rates are going to stay lower for longer; if more rounds of quantitative easing are coming; if new ways of easing are coming -- the rates should be going down and stocks moving higher. [...] It's about dividends paying more than bonds. 90% of the bond market universe is near 2% or lower. //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/germany-about-sell-zero-coupon-10-year-bonds-first-time-ever //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-13/we-just-found-out-who-has-been-buying-all-these-record-low-yielding-bonds - When your nation's bonds are trading with a record low 28bps negative yield (10Y JGBs), everything else in the world (aside from Swiss 10Y) is a relative 'value'...
bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  central  banks  BIS  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  PBOC  secular  stagnation  wage  growth  output  gap  productivity  gap  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  inequality  Gini  coefficient  western  world  rising  middleclass  Asia  BRIC  income  distribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalism  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  global  economy  globalization  free  trade  dividends  underinvestment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  student  debt  consumer  debt  car  loan  property  bubble  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  distortion  asset  allocation  austerity  AI  Robotics  automation  augmented  intelligence  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  shortage  economic  history  Brexit  technological  history  underemployed  underemployment  part-time  deflation  deflationary  JGB 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Perhaps austerity didn't choke off UK recovery - BBC News
But, as I mentioned, the disclosure that we were a bit richer in the last parliament than we thought is not all fabulous news for the chancellor. He and his Treasury colleagues should probably be anxious that the faster growth did not translate into higher tax revenues. In case you need reminding, George Osborne singularly failed to hit the deficit reduction targets he set himself. But the explanation can no longer be that the economy flatlined, because that's not what happened. So if the higher-than-thought growth in the last parliament left the gap between government revenues and expenditures tens of billions of pounds greater than George Osborne hoped, it also suggests that his aspiration of eliminating the deficit in this parliament may prove equally elusive. //&! Despite strong employment growth, wage growth remained historically weak - the usual link between falling unemployment and rising wages seemed to have been broken. - bbc.in/1OEffcS
trickle-down  economics  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  self-employment  employment  working  poor  precarious  work  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  Niedriglohnsektor  George  Osborne  austerity  economic  history  recovery  budget  deficit  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  credit  bubble  mortgage  market  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  academics  academia  IMF  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  underinvestment  Joseph  Stiglitz  private  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  credit  card  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  productivity  output  gap  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  underemployed  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  faultlines  Impediments  skills  gap 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Fed chief Yellen says US rate rise still likely this year - BBC News
The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets
Janet  Yellen  Fed  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  secular  stagnation  western  world  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  QT  petrodollar  Petroleum  Industry  commodity  prices  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  Brazil  Russia  India  BIS  Richard  Koo  global  economy  global  trade  2015  BOE  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  private  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Student  deleveraging  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  economics  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  competitive  competition  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  recovery  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  bubble  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  Super  Rich  1%  hot-money  currency-war  currency  war  currency  debasement  Dollar  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  distortion  irrational  exuberance  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  USA  UK 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
Brazil  BRIC  Developing  World  China  credit  bubble  Latin  America  India  Russia  South  Africa  2015  Niall  Ferguson  NiallFerguson  recovery  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  emerging  middle  class  western  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  economic  history  Richard  Koo  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  globalization  globalisation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  correction  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  PBOC  banking  crisis  bank  bailout  austerity  UK  USA  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  policy  consolidation  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  low  income  job  creation  labour  market  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  Super  Rich  1%  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  business  investment  business  confidence  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  underemployed  participation  rate  productivity  output  gap  macroeconomic  policy  policy  job  microeconomi 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine - Bloomberg View
It turns out investors were right about Alibaba: No company is more on the front lines of China's economic shifts than Jack Ma's juggernaut. And that's just where the problems begin. [...] After months of putting the entire weight of the government behind saving the market, Beijing appears to have given up. The fallout from that realization will have unpredictable effects on 1.3 billion people indoctrinated to believe Beijing can control any crisis or narrative. As markets swoon and gross domestic product slides, consumers are delaying nonessential purchases. [...] Mass austerity has only just begun. [...] it would be interesting to see how the government responds to "large and widespread investment losses that could lead to a notable negative wealth effect which could weaken consumption, as well as grievances against the authorities." [...] Macau's GDP -26.4% last quarter [...] Chinese gamblers stayed home. [...] Ma created a better quarterly GDP report than Beijing.
Alibaba  China  Jack  Ma  2015  credit  bubble  PBOC  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  hunt  for  yield  speculation  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  margin  trading  leverage  discretionary  spending  Call  Taper  Fed  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  market  intervention  bond  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  hubris  irrational  exuberance  western  world  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  savings  glut  correlation  excess  reserves  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  investment  banking  New  Normal  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  BIS  centralbanks  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  short-term  1%  Super  Rich  Privileged  Establishment  Toff  bank  bailout 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Yellen: There's Still Slack in Labor Markets - YouTube
>> signs that a debt fuelled recovery doesn't fix the long standing (since 90's 2000's post dot.com) underlying fundamentals of an economy. // low wage low productivity jobs especially part-time and minimum wage - doe not have an economic multiplier as a whole, they cost the economy or are at least net-net 0. // it is the same in UK. and signs show in Germany as well. // &! subprime was one of many predatory lending practices to financial illiterate ppl and exploitation of the underbanked/unbanked, and banks also choose to charge minorities higher interest rates - youtu.be/CbW9mH7p_8E + and add also practices of Payday Loans. Those things are a symptoms of the system at large. Resulting in the Poverty Trap.
USA  labour  economics  labour  market  participation  rate  skills  gap  underemployed  part-time  2015  education  policy  vocational  education  social  mobility  downward  mobility  self-employment  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  long-term  unemployment  unemployment  youth  unemployment  employabilitie  employability  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  output  gap  productivity  recovery  GFC  competitiveness  competitive  globalisation  globalization  borderless  flat  world  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  history  infrastructure  investment  Makers  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Sozialer  Abstieg  Niedriglohn  Niedriglohnsektor  Service  Sector  Jobs  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  economic  damage  economic  model  shared  economic  interest  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Opportunism  opportunist  policy  folly  policy  error  microeconomic  policy  job  creation  job  market  job  security  Minijob  Aufstocker  minimum  wage  living  wage  disposable  income  savings  rate  discretionary  spending  well  being  dot.com  UK  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  mindestlohn  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  inequality  income  inequality  income  mobility  capi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The Coming Crash & The Recession That Never Ended - Part 1 - YouTube
Part 2 youtu.be/SpJ4L2QGNI4 [ min 2:00 post WW2 german debt jubilee - American & Britain needed Germany as bulwark against USSR! thus Germany had leverage because it was systemic. Greece is not systemic, nor needed. Thus they openly talk, relaxed, abt Grexit. Grexit was systemic risk in the first ~3 years post GFC, because of underfunded German, Frensh and Belgian zombie banks. 6:00 PIGS generation will be disillusioned about claims of European Union unity! 7:30 austerity ] // &! Part 3 - youtu.be/FWulzJy2oXc Bernie Sanders on inequality &! social mobility, skills gap, ... make-up of USA economy is a impediment to future growth (output gap, no more 3% annually) & also part-cause of inequality ... &! Part 4 youtu.be/8wzDwU1pzpY - China may tumble bc they dont have the internal & global demand for the infrasturcture/economy they have build (debtoverhang, debt servitude) &or social uprising &! USA overreach // Forget QE, Wall Street’s new drug is the stock buyback - on.mktw.net/1HDtdUR
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
The escape from the balance sheet recession and the QE trap: An interview with Richard Koo - YouTube
"deflationary" is a symptom of balance sheet recession, deleveraging, debtoverhang ... of the private sector, corporate sector (& public gov sector) (to repair balance sheet). inflation of price of goods 2 live is still existent. you cant eat laptops. inflation is still present. actions of private sector, corporate sector to repair balance sheet (and even public sector, all three together) is deflationary. // UK! interesting is that consumer still borrows ie via credit card and mortgages. // question is how long UK can run such a big current account deficit. somebody has to pay for it, if not the gov with debt, then it has to be the private sector. as long as it can serve debt payments, as long as it has wage growth (increase of productivity, closing of output gap). But job creation during recovery was mostly Service Sector Jobs & self-employment. Not added value STEM. // corporate sector will not, in the long-run, pay for current account deficit w debt. &! youtu.be/EhYvaMc3f44
Richard  Koo  deflationary  book  mortgage  market  credit  card  private  debt  austerity  underinvestment  household  debt  current  account  deficit  UK  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  dogma  ideology  economic  history  economic  model  value  creation  added  value  STEM  productivity  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  budget2015  public  investment  personal  investment  business  investment  economic  damage  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  BOE  Mark  Carney  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Tories  Conservative  Party  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  Career  Politicians  structural  deficit  Impediments  structural  unemployment  underemployed  part-time  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  skills  gap  labour  market  labour  economics  Student  Maintenance  Grant  Higher  Education  policy  vocational  debt  loan  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  welfare  state  poverty  trap  child  poverty  poverty  tax  code  working  tax  credit  corporate  tax  rate  child  tax  credit  tax  credit  tax  free  income  disposable  income  savings  rate  structural  imbalance  debt  servitude  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  MervynKing  discretionary  spending  job  security  uncertainty  inequality  income  inequality  gender  inequality  propaganda  populism  media  conglomerate  manufactured  consent  skill-biased  technological  change  Funding  for  policy  gap  policy  policy  Lendin 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Can we ever really expect to see the growth of the past again? - Telegraph
>> what kind of jobs have been created since 2009? no high productivity/output jobs with marginal costs for each additional unit produced. those just fill in some gap. but do not add to above par economic output (blue ocean) // dot.com recovery was debt fuelled. GFC recovery was debt fuelled. // monetary policy might have saved the world momentarily, but fiscal policy did not put logs and pillars under the world, their respective economies - being prudent - looking long-term raising competitiveness with skilled workforce. things are now as a whole, as wobbily as they were 2009/10. Period.
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june 2015 by asterisk2a
Larry Summers: I'm Concerned U.S. Growth Won't Pick Up - YouTube
Not enough investment in productive entities that create living wage & middle class jobs. // credit induced growth & exhaustion of easy growth (China) // Debt Fueled Growth ends rarely gently. (GFC) // western world >> too little internal demand, its deflation and inflation
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may 2015 by asterisk2a

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