asterisk2a + creditcrisis   49

A society without cash is a society in trouble - Telegraph
[not taking cash out of your purse, different than sliding a plastic card through.] A society without cash is a society in trouble The trouble with contactless payments is they make it all too easy to forget the true value of things, worries Bryony Gordon
credit  card  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  instant  gratification  loss  loss  aversion  sunk  cost  fallacy  deferred  gratification  credit  bubble  creditcrisis  creditcard  consumer  debt  zombie  consumer 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
EZB: Draghi kündigt Aufkaufprogramm für Kredite an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Plan reagiert Draghi auf die schwache Wirtschaftslage in der Eurozone. Länder wie Italien, Spanien oder Griechenland kommen - wenn überhaupt - nur sehr langsam aus der Krise. Die dortigen Banken vergeben seit Jahren immer weniger Kredite. Und selbst in großen Ländern wie Frankreich und Deutschland stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung zuletzt. Ausdruck findet das auch in der Inflationsstatistik: Die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone steigen kaum noch - im September lag die jährliche Teuerungsrate gerade mal noch bei 0,3 Prozent. Um die Wirtschaft in Schwung zu halten, sollen die Preise nach Vorstellungen der EZB aber eher um knapp zwei Prozent pro Jahr steigen. Deshalb versuchen Draghi und seine Kollegen seit Monaten, die Kreditvergabe der Banken zu steigern, um so Wirtschaftswachstum und Preisentwicklung anzutreiben.
ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ABS  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  business  investment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  inflation  expectation  Europe  PIGS  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  IMF  France  Germany  trade  balance  2014  recovery  GFC  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  stagnation  Structural  Impediments  infrastructure  investment  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  inflation  fiscal  policy  Pact  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  distortion  unintended  consequences  complexity  asset  bubble 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
ESM: Kreditprogramm ausgereizt - Nachfrage fehlt im Euro-Raum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Bankenrettungsschirm ESM soll jetzt helfen, Unternehmen mit Krediten zu versorgen. Ein Vorschlag von beeindruckender Mutlosigkeit. Wesentlich wirksamer wäre es, das Geld per Hubschrauber über der Eurozone abzuwerfen. [...] Wäre es nicht besser, sich zunächst einmal zu fragen, welches Problem wir hier eigentlich lösen wollen? Ist Liquidität wirklich das Problem? Wohl kaum. Die Europäische Zentralbank legt dauernd neue Liquiditätsprogramme für den Bankensektor auf. Und was passiert? Die Banken wollen das Geld nicht und zahlen lieber die alten Kredite schnell zurück. Wenn Liquidität nicht mehr das Problem ist, wie soll dann ein Kreditprogramm helfen? [...] Firmen wollen keine Kredite, sie wollen Aufträge +!+!+!+ http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/18/ecbs-tltro-program-analysts-roundup/ +!+!+!+ ZIRP also never arrive for businesses.
ESM  TLTRO  LTRO  ABS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ECB  fiscal  policy  Pact  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  Europe  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Germany  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  financial  repression  liquidity  trap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  recovery  greatrecession  BRIC  MINT  Exportweltmeister  USA  UK  flat  world  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  economic  history  austerity  IMF  Richard  Koo  globalization  globalisation  uncertainty 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Farewell to the mother of all depressions
[ THE RECOVERY, THE GLASS IS HALF FULL. PERIOD. ]But nonetheless many will be slightly depressed that although the service economy is now just under 3% bigger than it was at the peak, manufacturing is still more than 7% smaller, and the production industries as a whole have been diminished by 11%. As I have bored on about for a while, although it is heart-warming to see UK manufacturing growing right now, there has been no rebalancing of the economy back towards the makers. Also, within services, the contribution of shoppers to the recovery remains immense - and the retail trade made the biggest contribution to the latest quarter's services surge. That suggests we may be at a premature end to households' attempts to strengthen their finances and pay down debts - and shows that growth in the economy remains perilously sensitive to the cost of money.
UK  recovery  greatrecession  2014  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  zombie  consumer  debtoverhang  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  QE  negative  real  interest  rate  BOE  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  greatdepression  lost  decade  lost  generation  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  underemployed  IMF  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  London  economies  of  agglomeration  Aberdeen  industrial  policy  comparative  advantage  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  tax  code  taxation  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  tax  credit  tax  free  income  GFC  creditcrisis  creditcrunsh  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  manufacturing  Consumerism  consumerist  consumer  debt  reflation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  household  debt  economic  history 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB cuts rates and launches stimulus programme
1-Day Before: http://youtu.be/_6D_xVeoIXs "ECB faces crunch on deflation threat" +++ The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures. The ECB had earlier cut its rate from 0.25% to 0.15% in June, and also became the first major central bank to introduce negative interest rates. It will also launch an asset purchase programme, which will buy debt products from banks. It is hoped this move will add liquidity to the financial system and revive lending. [...] "[A] last roll of the dice". "The ECB has now almost exhausted its ammunition for preventing the Eurozone sliding into a devastating deflationary, contractionary spiral," +++ Analysis: http://youtu.be/IErml4SmKmE "European banks – Work those ABS" +++ bit.ly/1A6pmLU - France and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity "Europe ... is threatened with lasting weak growth should the deficit rules continue to be strictly interpreted. [ BuBa demands higher wages, ECB fiscal stimulus ]."
ABS  OMT  LTRO  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  PIGS  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  IMF  Germany  BuBa  deflation  deflationary  communication  zombie  banks  confidence  trustagent  trust  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  policy  QE  bond  bubble  deleveraging  lost  decade  lost  generation  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  economic  history  debtoverhang  NPL  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  riskaversion  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  secular  stagnation  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  Career  Politicians  inflation  expectation  stagnation  Betongold  Beton  Gold  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  France  liberal  economic  reform  Stability  Pact  Italy  academics  academia  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  wage  growth  wage  inflation  fiscal  stimulus  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Sick  Man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  investment  business  investment  labor  market  reform  recovery 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Live chart: The low countries - YouTube
Timothy Geithner says no risk of U.S. losing it's AAA credit rating - http://youtu.be/0HDCvqgxrrE || Geithner: Japan's 'Lost Decade' Not America's Fate - http://youtu.be/fax8BIPKcP8 "the hope it's gonna heal itself, to hope you can grow yourself out of it" growing your way out of it" || +!!! Timothy Geithner Fired Robert Shiller? http://youtu.be/bIwBEYoSqKY >> economics has no humans in it !!! no real world example. Conventional wisdom so strong. "We've got too scientific." And anybody who is 'flaky' gets pushed out [Robert Schiller]. >>Wenn du dich auf andere verlaesst, bist du verlassen.<< || Robert Shiller: Speculative Asset Prices - http://youtu.be/oBXPOWytDMs "present value". google.co.uk/search?q=present+value+Robert+Schiller || + Robert Shiller: Nobel Prize Winning Economist - http://youtu.be/ABvtKGrIDUs "it can't be an exact science (forecasting) because of the complexity, mass data; uncertain, certain, and data that can't be put in numbers, storystelling -> feedback loops ...
bond  bubble  Japan  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  hunt  for  yield  lost  decade  lost  generation  deflation  deflationary  liquidity  trap  financial  repression  economic  history  Tim  Geithner  Timothy  Geithner  austerity  balance  sheet  recession  Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  creditrating  creditrisk  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  GFC  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Career  Politicians  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  systemrelevanz  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  sovereignty  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  Thomas  Piketty  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  savings  glut  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  GDP  economic  model  Robert  Skidelsky  Robert  Reich  Paul  Krugman  consumer  debt  public  debt  debt  restructuring  household  debt  zombie  banks  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  Fed  BuBa  leadership  Democratic  Process  democracy  trust  trustagent  confidence  greatrecession  greatdepression  history  evolution  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  Software  Is  Eating  skill-biased  techn 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Kreditklemme trotz EZB-Programmen: Die Banken sind unschuldig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milan und Sufi sind nicht die ersten, die auf diese Idee kamen. Richard Koo aus Japan entwickelte schon in den neunziger Jahre die These von einer Bilanz-Rezession. Wenn Länder, Firmen und Haushalte überschuldet sind, dann wollen sie sich einfach nur noch entschulden, egal wie günstig die Kredite sind. Koo warnte davor, dass alle gleichzeitig die Schulden abbauen. In Japan hörte man auf ihn. Dort entschuldeten sich die Firmen und die Haushalte, und es verschuldete sich der Staat. In Europa bauen alle ihre Schulden gleichzeitig ab: Staat, Unternehmen, Haushalte. Koo glaubt daher auch, dass wir in eine weit schlimmere Lage geraten werden als Japan. Wir sind auf Deflation programmiert. Koos Thesen sind plausibel. Sie sind aber keine fundierte ökonomische Analyse. Genau das haben jetzt Milan und Sufi geliefert - zumindest für die USA. Wenn sich diese Ergebnisse auch bei uns bestätigen sollten, dann hieße das: Wir machen in Europa so ziemlich alles falsch.
Richardkoo  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  Japan  deflation  deflationary  USA  UK  Debt  Super  Cycle  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  economic  history  GFC  sovereign  crisis  consumer  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  QE  monetization  monetisation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  monetary  transmission  mechanism  service  deleveraging  2014  recovery  greatrecession  greatdepression  Europe  PIGS  Neuverschuldung  Germany  austerity  IMF  book  lost  generation  lost  decade  ECB  BOE  BOJ  Fed 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB senkt Leitzins und beschließt Minuszinsen für Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat ihren Leitzins auf ein Rekordtief gesenkt und erstmals einen negativen Einlagensatz beschlossen. Angesichts der zuletzt sehr niedrigen Inflationsrate wird der Zins, zu dem sich die Geschäftsbanken bei der Notenbank Geld leihen können, um 0,10 Punkte auf 0,15 Prozent gesenkt, wie die EZB am Donnerstag nach ihrer Ratssitzung in Frankfurt mitteilte. Der Einlagensatz, zu dem Banken kurzfristig Geld bei der Notenbank parken können, wird erstmals in den negativen Bereich gedrückt. Er sinkt von bisher null Prozent auf minus 0,10 Prozent. Der Zins für kurzfristige Ausleihungen bei der Notenbank vermindert sich von 0,75 auf 0,40 Prozent. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-entscheidung-kredite-und-senkung-des-leitzins-a-973657.html ""Die Banken leiden nicht unter vermeintlich zu hohen Notenbankzinsen, sondern unter dem hohen Bestand fauler Kredite, an dem Negativzinsen nichts ändern." + !! http://youtu.be/kKO_yxP3dyQ !!
deflation  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  2014  ZIRP  OMT  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  deposit  levy  New  Normal  financial  repression  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  Europe  Germany  faultlines  recovery  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  GFC  lost  decade  lost  generation  long-term  unemployment  banking  union  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  2015  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  LTRO  assetbackedsecurities  Sterilization 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
Europe  europeanunion  banking  union  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  austerity  2013  2014  France  Spain  Italy  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Japan  economic  history  history  Angela  Merkel  political  folly  political  error  FrancoisHollande  policy  error  policy  folly  ECB  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richardkoo  reflation  deflationary  deflation  inflation  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  unintended  consequences  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  unconventional  monetary  policy 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
The Reason For China's Epic 1 Trillion Yuan Deleveraging: The Biggest Housing Bubble Ever | Zero Hedge
We shall see how much they approve when the massive deleveraging results in a 3% GDP print as we warned previously, crushing their year end bonuses in the process. [...] The country is about to undergo an unprecedented deleveraging that could amount to over CNY1 trillion in order to force reallocate capital in a more efficient basis. That's right: a massive deleveraging coming dead ahead in China just in time to shock the market still reeling from the threat of the Fed's tapering. [...] So there you have it: no matter what China has attempted, no matter how much it has punished the Shanghai Composite, it has been completely unable to offset the endogenous and/or exogenous (Fed, ECB, BOJ hot money) credit from sending the Chinese housing bubble into absolutely stratospheric levels. [...] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10164580/Chinese-banking-a-Wild-West-in-the-Far-East.html
currency  debasement  real  estate  bubble  monetary  policy  currency  war  capital  allocation  stimulus  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  fiscal  stimulus  BOE  banking  crisis  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  shadow  economy  BOJ  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  hot  money  China  credit  bubble  banking  system  NIRP  2013  recession  Fed  shadowbanking  economic  history  NPL  shadow  banking  fiscal  policy  bubbles  property  bubble  creditcrunch  bad  bank  ZIRP  USA  Taper  zombie  bank  deleveraging  toobigtofail  PBOC  Muddy  Waters  Research  faultlines 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Politik der niedrigen Zinsen: Nordstaaten verhinderten Zinssenkung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Geldpolitiker der Nordländer in der EU beharren auf ihrer Linie: Gemeinsam verhinderten Bundesbank-Präsident Weidmann und seine Kollegen nach SPIEGEL-Informationen eine weitere Leitzinssenkung der EZB. [...] Doch sieben Ratsmitglieder, vor allem aus den Nordstaaten, argumentierten heftig dagegen. Darunter waren nicht nur der deutsche Bundesbank-Chef Jens Weidmann und der Niederländer Klaas Knot, sondern auch das deutsche Mitglied des geschäftsführenden Direktoriums, Jörg Asmussen.
QE  NIRP  JörgAsmussen  Europe  creditcrunch  M3  Bundesbank  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann  negative  real  interest  rate  banking  crisis  ECB  bank  crisis  creditcrisis 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Breaking Bad Habits by Stephen S. Roach - Project Syndicate
Unable to facilitate balance-sheet repair or stimulate real economic activity, QE has, instead, become a dangerous source of instability in global financial markets. [...] There is good reason to believe that China’s new leaders are now determined to wean the economy off ever-mounting (and destabilizing) debt – especially in its rapidly expanding “shadow banking” system. [...] Financial markets are having a hard time coming to grips with the new policy mindset in the world’s two largest economies. [...] Breaking bad habits is hardly a painless experience for liquidity-addicted investors.
monetary  policy  GFC  unintended  consequences  New  Normal  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  monetary  system  addiction  benbernanke  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  China  QE  NIRP  2013  Fed  Greenspan-Put  alangreenspan  shadowbanking  financial  repression  stephenroach  creditcrunch  bubble  ZIRP  Taper  USA  greatdepression  deleveraging  toobigtofail  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
UK banking shortfall mostly patched up | ForexLive
The FT is out with a sensational headline saying ‘PRA to expose £26bn bank funding gap’ but the details of the story show that the numbers don’t account for measures already taken this year or are scheduled over the next 18 months. The Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds and Barclays account for 90% of the shortfall but each has only about £1-2bn more to raise.
liquidity  debtoverhang  trust  GFC  UK  confidence  RBS  creditcrunch  capital  Lloyds  trustagent  liquid  assets  greatdepression  banking  crisis  deleveraging  Barclays  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2013/speech670.pdf
UK’s King Last Speech: UK needs more Bank of England stimulus as recovery is not assured. >> UK's future still uncertain. Reflective in Cable (GBPUSD). While others do much better. >> "Despite this encouraging picture, growth is not yet strong enough to reduce the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. Nor is recovery at an adequate rate fully assured. The weakness of the euro area and the problems of the UK banking system continue to act as a drag on growth. So the need to support the recovery remains. [...] unemployment remains unnecessarily high. [...] Both nominal and real interest rates are at unsustainably low levels. There is an understandable yearning for a return to normality [...] Monetary policy cannot provide the answer. [... Banking > ...] It is insufficient capital that restricts lending [+ holding not enough liquid assets]. And, without a resilient banking system, it will be difficult to sustain a recovery."
unemployment  monetary  policy  currency  war  Mark  Carney  reflation  zombie  banks  capital  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  Discount  Window  Facility  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  liquidity  QE  price  stability  inflation  targeting  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  devaluation  political  error  imbalance  creditcrunch  Recapitalization  trustagent  hunt  for  yield  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  global  imbalances  inflation  debt  monetization  governance  balance  sheet  recession  Leverage  GFC  complexity  output-gap  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  debt  restructuring  monetary  system  too  big  to  jail  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  policy  error  debtoverhang  Special  Scheme  NIRP  trust  economic  history  confidence  youth  unemployment  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  MervynKing  toobigtofail  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
The Fed isn’t the most important central bank in the world right now | ForexLive
A credit crunch may be underway in China as the PBOC turns its back on the money market. One-day repo rates rose to a more than 5-year high today at today at 11.0% from 6.3% at the open in the Chinese interbank market (CHIBOR). Interbank repo rates hit 15% for overnight lending a 12% for two weeks (up more than 400 bps).
monetary  policy  2013  interbank  market  trust  property  bubble  interbank  lending  confidence  creditcrunch  trustagent  deleveraging  PBOC  creditcrisis  China  money  market  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Connectivity climbs post crisis - YouTube
Shock to one part of the system has consequences unknown. > Interdependency between banks, insurers and countries through financial instruments was a factor blamed for the financial crisis.
GFC  complexity  shadowbanking  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  connectivity  creditcrunch  sovereign  crisis  transparency  banking  crisis  banking  connectedness  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  feedback  loop  world  economy  credit  bubble 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Carmen Reinhart: "No Doubt. Our Pensions Are Screwed." | Zero Hedge
Only when inflation picks up, which is ultimately going to happen, will it become obvious that central banks have become subservient to governments." [...] Nations "seldom just grow themselves out of debt," as so many believe is possible, "you need a combination of austerity, so that you don't add further to the pile of debt, and higher inflation, which is effectively a subtle form of taxation," with the consequence that people are going to lose their savings. Reinhart succinctly summarizes, "no doubt, our pensions are screwed." [...] http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-harvard-economist-carmen-reinhart-on-financial-repression-a-893213.html / http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-central-banks-are-threatening-the-savings-of-normal-germans-a-860021.html
monetization  unemployment  monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  modern  monetary  theory  transferring-wealth  reflation  academia  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  carmenreinhart  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  deposit  levy  creditcrisis  QE  2013  moralhazard  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  creditcrunch  bail-in  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  centralbanks  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debt  jubilee  haircut  unintended  consequences  Troika  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  debt  restructuring  bank  crisis  Abenomics  greatrecession  debtoverhang  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  bailout 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The Complete (And Very Disturbing) European Bank Loan-To-Deposit Ratios: A Redux | Zero Hedge
The chart [above] explains why not only is Europe's several asset constrained, it is also running out of funding, in the form of depositor cash: the most critical bank liability. Remember: without incremental deposits, banks can not invest in new assets, unless they generate cash from operations, and thus grow shareholder equity. There is a problem: as the final chart below shows, Europe, and especially Scandinavia which has consistently remained off the radar, is literally off the charts when it comes to LTD ratios.   With banks such as Danske, SHB, Swebank, DnB, and Nordea literally at 200% Loan-to-Deposits, but most other European banks too, even the tiniest outflow in deposit cash (ala what is happening in the PIIGS) will send the system into yet another liquidity spasm.
2013  scandinavia  GFC  Europe  creditcrunch  debt  bubble  banking  crisis  greatdepression  deleveraging  2012  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Americans Facing More Inequality, More Debt and Now More Trouble? - YouTube
Middle Class, keeping up with the Jonses.

Did America's record-high level of economic inequality in 2007 help cause the financial crisis of 2008? With Americans' borrowing back on the rise and signs that economic inequality is growing, could there be another financial crisis in the near future? Paul Solman continues his series of reports on U.S. economic inequality.
income-gap  income  inequality  debt  debtoverhang  USA  public  private  economics  living-standard  household  crisis  credit  creditcrisis  GFC  subprime  middleclass  homeownership  creditcard  payday-loan 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Dubai Denies Neighbors Fuel as City Struggles to Pay Off Debt: Arab Credit - Bloomberg
questionable ability to service and repay debt.
Dubai has $16 billion of publicly held debt maturing later this year, International Monetary Fund data show. 
Dubai borrowed at least $129 billion to turn itself into a tourism, trade and financial services hub, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. It had to seek help from neighboring Abu Dhabi after the global credit crunch dragged property prices down by more than half from their peak in 2008 and forced some state- owned companies to seek changes to payments.

Fixing PricesThe U.A.E. federal government fixes retail prices for gasoline and diesel at prices that are below retailers’ costs. It has left prices unchanged this year even as crude rises to 2 1/2 year highs. Last year, the government allowed two increases in pump prices.

“There have been no price increases in the Gulf since the Mideast protests began, as governments want no cause for similar opposition at home.”
dubai  AbuDhabi  sovereign  debt  crisis  2011  contagion  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  liquidity  Arab-Spring  jasminrevolution 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Euro Commercial Paper Rates Surge As Debt Roll Troubles Become Acute | zero hedge
The chart below demonstrates that while concerns about Libor are gaining steam, a far more dangerous situation has developed in the Euro Commercial Paper (top tier) market, where rates have surged far more in the past week than even compared to Euro Libor or Euribor. As those who were alive in the days after Lehman will recall, the freezing up of the Commercial Paper market was one of the primary reasons for the Fed's creation of the Commercial Paper emergency liquidity funding facility (CPFF). If the CP market once again dies, or, as it is better known in polite circles, "locks up" it will once again set off the avalanche of locked up credit markets initially for financial and other IG companies, and shortly thereafter spread to all other segments of the market. Should the CP rates continue rising without moderation, look for European credit markets to break soon enough.
CPFF  liquidity  repo  libor  europe  Euro  lehmanbrothers  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  may  2010  ECB  Fed  QE 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
EU Finance Chiefs Race to Ready Emergency Fund Before Asian Markets Open - Bloomberg
“When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.” Sarkozy cancelled a planned trip to Moscow today to deal with the crisis.

Barroso said he wouldn’t push the independent European Central Bank to, for example, buy government bonds. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet accelerated the market selloff on May 6 by rejecting that measure.
sarkozy  trichet  angelamerkel  ECB  monetization  debt  sovereign  greece  PIIGS  EMU  contagion  systemicrisk  bailout  germany  politics  may  2010  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  solvency 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Losing faith in the euro zone? | Reuters
Markets are in what AXA Investment Managers calls "panic mode," resulting in the European bond market being drained of liquidity and with some investors forced to sell because of sovereign debt downgrades.

And longer-term, the landscape has been changed by the crisis.
creditcrisis  bonds  gilts  EMU  greece  PIIGS  bailout  Germany  may  2010  liquidity  interestrate  unintended  consequences  domino  transmission  ripple  effect 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
YouTube - Buffet Cannot Escape Credit Pinch; California Foreclosure; Morgan Stanley Hires SocGen's Francois; Google Working On Opening
As credit becomes more expensive
les future investments will be made
maybe better allocation
butt gap to emerging countries narrows
creditcrisis  warrenbuffet  interestrate  interest  sovereign  debt  unintended  consequences  2009  2010  2011  2012 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Mervyn King Warns Winners Of UK Election Will Be Kicked Out For Decades Due To Unpopular Austerity Measures Needed | zero hedge
Perhaps all the hype over the November elections is misguided: perhaps the Republicans realize that should they win by a landslide, with the Obama administration desperately delaying the implementation of inevitable tax hikes until after the elections, they will be vilified as the party which will be forced to deal with the cleanup of the biggest private-to-public deficit transfer in history (and a vice versa on the wealth side), and thus result in massive subsequent losses, leading to a second term for the president and a firm entrenching of Democrats in control. Perhaps the prudent move would be to simply concede the election and let the existing administration flounder in its attempts to resolve the insolvable budget and fiscal deficits currently being created.
barackobama  presidency  democrats  republicans  politics  uk  election  2012  2010  greatrecession  financial  crisis  creditcrisis  inflation 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Op-Ed Columnist - The Euro Trap - NYTimes.com
But that’s a much harder thing to do now than it was when each European nation had its own currency. Back then, costs could be brought in line by adjusting exchange rates — e.g., Greece could cut its wages relative to German wages simply by reducing the value of the drachma in terms of Deutsche marks. Now that Greece and Germany share the same currency, however, the only way to reduce Greek relative costs is through some combination of German inflation and Greek deflation. And since Germany won’t accept inflation, deflation it is.

The problem is that deflation — falling wages and prices — is always and everywhere a deeply painful process. It invariably involves a prolonged slump with high unemployment. And it also aggravates debt problems, both public and private, because incomes fall while the debt burden doesn’t.

Hence the crisis. Greece’s fiscal woes would be serious but probably manageable if the G...
germany  greece  EMU  europe  infaltion  deflation  monetary  policy  fiscal  2010  outlook  forecast  debt  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  paulkrugman  politics  bailout 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Gesenkte Kreditwürdigkeit: Rating-Riese verramscht Griechenland - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Eine der wichtigsten Rating-Agenturen gibt Griechenland keine Chance mehr: Standard & Poor's hat die Kreditwürdigkeit des hochverschuldeten Landes um drei Noten herabgestuft. Auch Portugals Bonität nimmt radikal ab - an den Börsen bricht Unruhe aus.
greece  S&P  rating  ratingagencies  PIIGS  portugal  april  2010  creditcrisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  EMU  Europe 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Maturity Wall Shrinks $196 Billion in 15 Months: Credit Markets - Bloomberg.com
Last year’s recovery in credit markets prompted $239.3 billion of speculative-grade bond sales, reducing chances that debt-laden companies would be trapped as their securities matured. The 12-month global default rate for junk debt fell to 9.9 percent in the first quarter from 13 percent at the end of 2009 and will drop to 2.4 percent a year from now, New York- based Moody’s Investors Service said in a report.

“The openness of the high-yield bond market has been the major force here,” said Gautam Kakodkar, a New York-based credit strategist at Barclays Plc. “What we’ve seen so far is an incredible flow of money to high-yield bonds and loans, creating a lot of pent up demand.”

Elsewhere in credit markets, the extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds rather than government debt was 146 basis points yesterday, the lowest since November 2007, the Merrill Global Broad Market Corporate Index shows. Yields averaged 4.013 percent, the lowest since March 30.
credticrunch  credit  market  leverage  household  companies  corporations  usa  2010  debt  deleveraging  loan  creditcrisis  creditcrunch 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Sovereign debt crisis at 'boiling point', warns Bank for International Settlements - Telegraph
The Bank for International Settlements does not mince words. Sovereign debt is already starting to cross the danger threshold in the United States, Japan, Britain, and most of Western Europe, threatening to set off a bond crisis at the heart of the global economy.
BIS  greece  debt  bailout  UK  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  2010  public  sovereign 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Investor Soros: „Deutschland treibt Griechenland in den Abgrund“ - Politik - International - Handelsblatt.com
„Wenn Deutschland sich darauf einlassen würde, Geld zu günstigeren Konditionen zu geben, würden die Marktzinsen fallen“, sagte Soros am Freitag in Cambridge der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters. „Ich hoffe, dass Deutschland erkennen wird, dass das Gerede über Kredite zu Marktzinsen die falsche Medizin ist. Das würde Griechenland in den Abgrund treiben.“
georgesoros  greece  creditcrisis  germany  eu  IMF  ECB  2010  april 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Fitch downgrades Greece to BBB- with a negative outlook - Credit Writedowns
And as long-time EM observers, we would NEVER, ever underestimate the threat of contagion.
creditcrunch  creditcrisis  greece  europe  eu  ECB  2010  april  rating  creditrating  contagion 
april 2010 by asterisk2a

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