asterisk2a + commoditization + growth + underinvestment   3

Richard Duncan: The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression - YouTube
50 year long debt super cycle & credit bubble up-held. Put. // hasnt created inflation because of Globalisation = deflationary! [3bn ppl living on $2/day] Collapse of marginal cost of labour, offsetting inflation pressure of QE/NIRP/credit creation last decades. // Will eventually haunt people back once globalisation has run its way in ~100-75 years & the world is actually flat. energy cost 0, marginal cost 0, economics of abundance. // // min 23 AND because of this deflationary pressure of globalisation, excess capacity, etc lead to wage stagnation & or pressure to work 4 less (Contractor, Werkvertrag, Zeitarbeit, self-employment, Zero Hour Contract, outsourcing) and longer, in western world. Leads inevitably 2 being pushed into recession & avoiding that authorities always pushed button 4 more credit. Credit growth prevented western world not 2 be pushed into recession in last decades. 2010 Private Sector cant drive recovery! Massive Gov stimulus needed +10 years, not austerity!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's currency devaluation could spark 'tidal wave of deflation' | Business | The Guardian
[3rd day in a row Yuan/RMB is devalued by PBOC (13/08/15)] “We’re all going to feel it: we’ll feel it through commodities; we’ll feel it through manufactured goods exports, not just from China but from everywhere that has to compete with it; and we’ll feel it through wages.” [...] China could be willing to let the yuan depreciate by as much as 25% over the next five years – “stone by stone, step by step” – in an attempt to restore the export-led growth that was such a winning formula [...] China [may be] trying to protect itself against the period of financial instability [following Taper by western central banks Fed/BOE] [or counter $ recent rise 21% & peg against $] [or fight home grown recession with kitchen sink] // &! bloom.bg/1gC8FFe &! bloom.bg/1WkMfZZ &! bloom.bg/1hy7O9l &! bloom.bg/1NpE4FI &! bv.ms/1IKB3fX // what is the new normal 4 growth in this global economy, competitive = keeping prices low = inflation & low interest rate pressure.
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august 2015 by asterisk2a

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