asterisk2a + commoditization + growth   7

Richard Duncan: The Real Risk Of A Coming Multi-Decade Global Depression - YouTube
50 year long debt super cycle & credit bubble up-held. Put. // hasnt created inflation because of Globalisation = deflationary! [3bn ppl living on $2/day] Collapse of marginal cost of labour, offsetting inflation pressure of QE/NIRP/credit creation last decades. // Will eventually haunt people back once globalisation has run its way in ~100-75 years & the world is actually flat. energy cost 0, marginal cost 0, economics of abundance. // // min 23 AND because of this deflationary pressure of globalisation, excess capacity, etc lead to wage stagnation & or pressure to work 4 less (Contractor, Werkvertrag, Zeitarbeit, self-employment, Zero Hour Contract, outsourcing) and longer, in western world. Leads inevitably 2 being pushed into recession & avoiding that authorities always pushed button 4 more credit. Credit growth prevented western world not 2 be pushed into recession in last decades. 2010 Private Sector cant drive recovery! Massive Gov stimulus needed +10 years, not austerity!
debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  Greenspan-Put  Ben  Bernanke  fiat  currency  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  Abenomics  globalization  globalisation  Fed  centralbanks  BIS  economic  history  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  GFC  recovery  western  world  technological  progress  commodity  business  commoditization  economics  of  abundance  marginal  cost  Janet  Yellen  benbernanke  ECB  BOE  BOJ  monetary  policy  Zero  Hour  Contract  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Contractor  Zeitarbeit  Werkvertrag  self-employment  freelancing  freelance  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  dot.com  outsourcing  flat  world  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  student  debt  household  debt  private  debt  fiscal  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo  Mark  Blyth  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  Paul  Krugman  shared  economic  interest  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  Smart  Grid  STEM  education  policy  value  creation  added  value  Manufacturing  3D  printing  energy  price  energy  policy  competitive  competition  competitiveness  competitive  advantage  R&D  Research  Public  Partnership  world  fiscal  d 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
reflate  reflation  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  secular  stagnation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  recovery  UK  USA  Europe  dogma  ideology  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  rate  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  participation  rate  unemployment  imbalance  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  STEM  industrial  policy  Manufacturing  competitiveness  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  commodity  business  commoditization  borderless  deflationary  deflation  Software  Is  Eating  The  Marketplace  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  mobile  first  Smartphone  Revolution  2.0  energy  price  Oil  price  inflation  expectation  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  productive  investment  IMF  OECD  developed  world  emerging  emerging  growth  investment  midd 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
India's Snapdeal raises $500m from international investors - BBC News
In the Indian e-commerce sector, Snapdeal competes with rivals Flipkart and Amazon for market share. // burning cash, to buy customers, and with it being a private market, only board and founders know the numbers like LTCV and the puff they add with words and milestones. Chasing the emerging middle class. The new consumer is everywhere else, but not in the Western World which is struggling. http://www.breakingviews.com/indian-e-tailers-funds-will-disappear-in-a-flash/21212651.article
e-commerce  Flipkart  Snapchat  India  China  Amazon  commodity  business  commoditization  BRIC  Developing  World  emerging  middle  class  Frontier  Markets  growth  round  Venture  Capital  customer  acquisition  LTCV  customer  retention  user  churn  user  acquisition  burn  rate  runway 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's currency devaluation could spark 'tidal wave of deflation' | Business | The Guardian
[3rd day in a row Yuan/RMB is devalued by PBOC (13/08/15)] “We’re all going to feel it: we’ll feel it through commodities; we’ll feel it through manufactured goods exports, not just from China but from everywhere that has to compete with it; and we’ll feel it through wages.” [...] China could be willing to let the yuan depreciate by as much as 25% over the next five years – “stone by stone, step by step” – in an attempt to restore the export-led growth that was such a winning formula [...] China [may be] trying to protect itself against the period of financial instability [following Taper by western central banks Fed/BOE] [or counter $ recent rise 21% & peg against $] [or fight home grown recession with kitchen sink] // &! bloom.bg/1gC8FFe &! bloom.bg/1WkMfZZ &! bloom.bg/1hy7O9l &! bloom.bg/1NpE4FI &! bv.ms/1IKB3fX // what is the new normal 4 growth in this global economy, competitive = keeping prices low = inflation & low interest rate pressure.
yuan  RMB  PBOC  China  devaluation  deflationary  deflation  UK  USA  Europe  Exportweltmeister  competition  competitive  competitiveness  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  secular  stagnation  western  world  globalisation  globalization  commodities  commodity  business  commoditization  Germany  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  wage  pressure  productivity  output  gap  recovery  GFC  economic  history  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  Great  Moderation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  IMF  SDR  currency  war  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  Japan  Australia  Oil  price  energy  price  Developing  Frontier  Markets  Forex  USD  British  Pound  Euro  Yen  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  Bank  of  Canada  asset  bubble  macroprudential  policy  asset  allocation  productive  investment  underinvestment  business  investment  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Empire of the geeks | The Economist
Silicon Valley should be celebrated. But its insularity risks a backlash [...] Critics are often from industries wanting to protect their privileges; the geeks’ aggressive behaviour is sometimes part of the creative destruction that leads to progress. But that is not the only source of anger. Silicon Valley also dominates markets, sucks out the value contained in personal data, and erects business models that make money partly by avoiding taxes. There is a risk that global consumers will feel exploited and that the effects of a shrinking tax base will infuriate voters. If the perception takes root that enormous profits from exploiting data and avoiding taxes are crystallised in the fortunes of a few people living on a patch of ground near San Francisco, then there will be a backlash." // recent emergence of marketplace for X and gig platform for X - 1099 Economy etc etc, making money with our data - Facebook.
Silicon  Valley  irrational  exuberance  hubris  creative  destruction  shared  economic  interest  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  exploitation  business  model  corporate  values  Universal  Basic  Income  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  automation  marketplace  marketplace  efficiencies  commodity  business  commoditization  Robotics  autonomous  car  self-driving  cars  augmented  intelligence  Big  Data  machine  learning  deep  learning  artificial  intelligence  labour  market  job  creation  labour  economics  job  market  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  neoliberalism  neoliberal  liberal  economic  reform  precarious  Precariat  poverty  trap  education  policy  vocational  education  social  mobility  Gini  coefficient  growth  mobility  capital  gains  tax  code  fairness  social  cohesion  social  tension  Gesellschaft  society  downward  mobility  gender  inequality  technological  history  Niedriglohnsektor  lohndumping  Service  Sector  Jobs  Lohnzurückhaltung  minimum  wage  living  wage  uncertainty  job  security 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
NYT - EU and Google
“With more than a decade of hindsight, the theories supporting the case against Microsoft have all but fallen apart, and the pursuit of the company that makes Windows may suggest a reason for skepticism about this fight against Google: The tech marketplace is fluid and unpredictable. The giants that look most unbeatable today could falter in ways that may once have seemed unthinkable — and without a lot of help from the government.” [...] Google makes most of its money from search ads, but the market for such direct advertising may be tapped out. The next great wave of digital advertising — a market far bigger than search spots — will come from ad budgets now reserved for TV commercials, and many observers bet that Facebook, not Google, is in the best position to get that business. &! bit.ly/1aCgTK7 &! Growth stalls eventually 4all companies >> bit.ly/1DpxFXl &! youtu.be/SdJz93aIvA0?t=20m talk abt Google Search business practices and their way to "add value." And Lobbying activities.
Microsoft  IBM  Google  Apple  HP  Facebook  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  Skype  IRC  ICQ  AOL  Yahoo!  Y!  Fortune  500  Wall  Street  oligopoly  oligopol  monopoly  antitrust  FTC  EU  Nokia  Snapchat  Tumblr  Twitter  craigslist  Google  Search  AdSense  Programmatic  Advertising  native  advertisement  targeting  advertisement  re-targeting  advertisement  content  marketing  Huffington  Post  BuzzFeed  YouTube  economic  history  business  cycle  commodity  business  commoditization  Amazon  PayPal  eBay  growth  economic  growth  microeconomics  saturation  market  size  multi-product  company  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  crony  capitalism  exploitation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  revolving  door  Washington  presidency  barackobama  lobbyist  Lobbying  lobby 
april 2015 by asterisk2a
Drowning in venture capital, mobile startups are waging unsustainable price wars | PandoDaily
upside of this up-cycle/up-business cycle? everyone with a little bit of chops and a MVP with little bit of traction can get capital. Downside? Everyone spends their capital. Would never happen in a down cycle. Down cycles are great, you've got more time to build a great team, product and brand. .... "[L]ook at ecommerce 2.0 companies like Fab and EcoMom who blew millions in capital acquiring customers at unsustainable rates, hoping for some magic lifetime customer value to justify the spending. (It didn’t.) “There’s a tension between growing fast enough and having a disastrous bottom line,” Jeff Clavier, Founder of SoftTech VC, says. Clavier was an early investor in Fab, among others playing this game. “If you don’t have growth you’re stuck, but if you have growth with economics not viable in the long term, [you’re making] a real bet that you’ll be funded nevertheless.” [...] companies aren’t developing a sustainable business model. [Freemium works better with Software Product.]
Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Lean  Start-Up  VC  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  growth  round  Uber  Lyft  Fab.com  sustainable  sustainability  customer  acquisition  customer  retention  2014  asset  bubble  bubble  Silicon  Valley  Palo  Alto  San  Francisco  business  model  business  plan  user  experience  user  expectations  Amazon  Zappos  free  freemium  SAAS  on-demand  mobile  services  Industry  mobile  first  Uber  for  X  Groupon  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  London  Start-Up  Scene  me  too  price  war  commoditization  commodity  business  differentiation  differentiate  brand  brands  branding  indefensible  values  defensible  values  business  management  management  economics  frictionless  friction  rackspace  training  your  customer  growth  crutch  growth  hacker  traction  Value  Proposition  long-term  thinking  long-term  view 
july 2014 by asterisk2a

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