asterisk2a + carmenreinhart   23

Interview With Mohamed El-Erian: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View
7:50 New Normal is secular stagnation and decades-long NIRP, ZIRP, QE distortion. structural, secular. no cyclical recovery. but long secular challenges; prolonged period of low growth. // also inequality! // currently policy makers subsidise debtors, subsidise creditors - financial repression. promote risk taking. // richard koo would not agree with el-erian's notion that gov balance sheets are same as household balance sheets. // 12:10 demographic issue! political. and economic elements in it of secular stagnation. [...] borrowing growth // rise of far-right! // corps sitting on cash // inequality! // bc of lived in artificial world of borrowed growth, created massive divergence. // min 15:30 richard koo would not agree that central banks are the only game in town. central banks have complained abt austerity gov. // min 20 - Feds intellectually inflexible. comfort zone. self-regulation & great moderation. // reflation didnt work bc no fixed fundamentals // perfect storm! lost trust.
New  Normal  financial  repression  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  secular  stagnation  GFC  credit  bubble  book  western  world  emerging  middle  class  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Paul  Krugman  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Joseph  Stiglitz  distortion  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  system  retirement  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  far-right  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Pact  Schuldenbremse  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  nominal  GDP  targeting  GDP  reflate  reflation  trust  trustagent  distrust  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  public  sentiment  public  perception  bank  bailout  Japan  Abenomics  AIIB  IMF  China  BRIC  self-regulation  Great  Moderation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
faith in capitalism can only be sustained, according to Adam Smith, if we can better ourself (vs winner takes all) & talent diversion into Finance, not Climate Change, STEM, education, sw, hw & rogoff/reinhart called 4 fiscal stimulus in 2014. &! its a banking problem, not overspend, its corporate state (Tories) PR and spin doctors, manufacturing consent, propaganda/populism! change conversation away from banks! // youtu.be/a-8ySh6nUsA // &! The Austerity Delusion - youtu.be/NQGCoiakycQ // &! Is Austerity a Dangerous Idea? - youtu.be/2v8m-J8sgik // &! youtu.be/JQuHSQXxsjM // &! Mackenzie Lecture 2015 - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs // &! After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - youtu.be/V3FPmu2_J_0 // &! Book Panel 2013 - youtu.be/Xz4FW8GDwG4 - "debt gets cured by growth." & austerity is ideological war on welfare state & class // &! youtu.be/iM2cnMhJZyg // &! youtu.be/in5M65566iw // &! What I Learned and (Un-Learned) at the Financial Crisis - youtu.be/lhldDOp77QA /
austerity  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  downward  mobility  inequality  apathy  voter  turnout  crony  capitalism  ideology  dogma  GFC  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Angela  Merkel  Troika  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Conservative  Party  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  UK  Europe  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  lost  generation  lost  decade  Japan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  unknown  unkown  Taper  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Thomas  Piketty  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  debt  crisis  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  industrial  policy  Revolution  2.0  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  globalisation  globalization  Eurogroup  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  reflate  recovery  reflation  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  BOE  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  short-term  Career  Politicians  political  theory  social  contract  Gesellschaft  No  Representation  Rechtsruck  stagnation  social 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Krise ǀ Weimar reloaded — der Freitag
Das Land befindet sich schon mitten in der Depression und schuld daran sind hohe Lohnkosten und üppige Sozialpolitik. Helfen können dagegen nur Lohn-, Preis- und Budgetkürzungen. Was sich liest wie eine Mainstream-Diagnose des heutigen Europas, ist tatsächlich der Inhalt eines Artikels aus dem März 1929. Er erschien im Deutschen Volkswirt, einem damaligen Fachblatt der liberalen Ökonomie. Der Autor war kein Geringerer als Joseph Schumpeter. Was er vorschlug, ist später als die berüchtigte Deflationspolitik des bis Mai 1932 amtierenden Reichskanzlers Heinrich Brüning bekannt geworden. [ can solve debt overhang w austerity, >> is deflationary, stagnant balance sheet or shrinking, thus increases debt 2 gdp/asset ratio ] [...] den „Ruin Mitteleuropas“ zu verantworten.
austerity  economic  history  Weimar  Treaty  of  Versailles  deflationary  deflation  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  Greece  Richard  Koo  Germany  Wolfgang  Schäuble  GroKo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  balance  sheet  recession  neoliberalism  neoliberal  sovereign  crisis  Europe  George  Osborne  UK  IMF  Weimarer  Republik  Troika  Umschuldung  jubilee  restructuring  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  European  Union  Eurogroup  technocrat  John  Maynard  Keynes  carmenreinhart  KennethRogoff  Thomas  Piketty  Yanis  Varoufakis  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  Weimar  Republic  European 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Sorry to burst your bubble | The Economist
bit.ly/1IfX0s9 // "According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt." // see China Stock Market leverage pop mid 2015 - with its huge rise in margin debt trading ... money which was flowing out of the property market into the Stock Market // // &! so if it is about debt - UK mortgage market & consumer/private debt of all kind (loans and credit card debt) does qualify as they took up what was cut by austerity. Plus the Supply Demand distortion, with new builds/project at a decades lowest. // Question for China. The China problem. Can they make their system sustainable before it will crush everyone. // The most obvious is China. But the next one will be different & greater than all came before. Period. Still, UK had not a housing bubble collapse on its own making. Only through endogenous circumstances. UK recession as UK economy runs mostly on consumer sector & debt) bit.ly/1OpClSO bit.ly/1wQITjb bit.ly/1SycLtY
leverage  debtoverhang  equity  bubble  regulation  self-regulation  regulators  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  household  debt  private  debt  economic  history  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Greenspan-Put  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  margin  trading  margin  debt  asset  liquidity  economic  damage  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  mortgage  market  UK  credit  card  housing  market  property  bubble  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  sustainability  sustainable  NPL  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  economic  model  economic  irrational  exuberance  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  debt  monetisation  reflation  debt  monetization  consumerist  consumerism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  financial  financial  crisis  GFC  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  baddebt  non-performing  loan 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Germany won’t spare Greek pain – it has an interest in breaking us | Yanis Varoufakis | Comment is free | The Guardian
Debt restructuring has always been our aim in negotiations – but for some eurozone leaders Grexit is the goal [...] To frame the cynical transfer of irretrievable private losses on to the shoulders of taxpayers as an exercise in “tough love”, record austerity was imposed on Greece, whose national income, in turn – from which new and old debts had to be repaid – diminished by more than a quarter. It takes the mathematical expertise of a smart eight-year-old to know that this process could not end well. [...] In my first week as minister for finance I was visited by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup (the eurozone finance ministers), who put a stark choice to me: accept the bailout’s “logic” and drop any demands for debt restructuring or your loan agreement will “crash” – the unsaid repercussion being that Greece’s banks would be boarded up. [...] Wolfgang Schäuble, decided that Grexit’s costs were a worthwhile “investment” as a way of disciplining France et al,
Yanis  Varoufakis  debt  restructuring  debt  jubilee  Super  Cycle  sustainable  sustainability  Great  Depression  Greece  Grexit  lost  decade  lost  generation  PIGS  Troika  Germany  France  IMF  Angela  Merkel  ChristineLagarde  European  History  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Thomas  Piketty  ECB  MarioDraghi  Leadership  European  Union  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvent  insolvency  austerity  economic  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  dogma  ideology  propaganda  Lügenpresse  bailout  zombie  banks  populism  manufactured  consent  media  conglomerate  corporate  state  Jeroen  Dijsselbloem  Jean-Claude  Juncker  Eurogroup  EFSF  ELA  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  referendum  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  FrancoisHollande  academia  academic  academics  carmenreinhart  kennethlewis  Alexis  Tsipras  Syriza  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  Podemos  Indignants  Indignados  occupywallstreet  fairness  GFC  recovery  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  economic-thought  shared  economic  interest  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  economists  economic  damage  short-term  thinking  short-term  view 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF Slams Germany, Says Greece "Needs Debt Restructuring" | Zero Hedge
on the ticker. IMF'S LAGARDE SAYS DEBT RESTRUCTURING NEEDED IN GREECE. IMF'S LAGARDE SAYS FUND REMAINS 'FULLY ENGAGED' WITH GREECE. IMF'S LAGARDE SAYS IMF CANNOT GIVE GREECE SPECIAL TREATMENT // Earlier today, confirming that Germany sternly refuses to change its tune about a Greek debt haircut or even a debt "reprofiling" of Greece and would not budge an inch on Tsipras tacit request for at least some debt leeway, we reported that "the German government does not see any reason to grant Greece either a classic debt haircut or any other measures that would slash the value of money on loan to the crisis-ridden country, a spokesman for the finance ministry said on Wednesday." // IMF has admitted it was wrong to advocate for austerity, now IMF admits it was wrong to hope that its approach (together with Troika) would help Greece. // an economic model is an economic model, not the real world and especially not able to predict the future. // "Alternativlos."
Grexit  sustainable  sustainability  Greece  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  jubilee  haircut  debt  restructuring  ChristineLagarde  economic  history  austerity  ideology  dogma  academia  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  academic  economic  model  economist  economics  economic  damage  neoliberal  neoliberalism  liberal  economic  reform  Troika  IMF  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Jens  Weidmann  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Germany  France  FrancoisHollande  European  Union  Yanis  Varoufakis  Alexis  Tsipras  referendum  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  society  bailout  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  fairness  GFC  recovery  European  Syriza  Podemos  Indignants  Indignados  lost  generation  lost  decade  trust  trustagent  Protest  Partei  Protest  Party  symptom  voter  turnout 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
WDR Kinozeit Dokumentarfilm Agora: Sendung vom 05.02.2015 - YouTube
Die Eurokrise aus griechischer Sicht: "AGORÁ - Von der Demokratie zum Markt" // &! Post-democracy (Themes for the 21st Century Series) Paperback – 23 Jun 2004 by Colin Crouch &! Making Capitalism Fit For Society Paperback – 6 Sep 2013 - by Colin Crouch "The aim of this book is to show that the acceptance of capitalism and the market does not require us to accept the full neoliberal agenda of unrestrained markets, insecurity in our working lives, and neglect of the environment and of public services."
documentary  Greece  sovereign  debt  crisis  Eurokriese  GFC  economic  history  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  crisis  TBTF  toobigtofail  Career  Politicians  oligopoly  oligopol  systemicrisk  systemic  risk  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  Bailout  haircut  austerity  fiscal  sovereignty  IMF  Troika  book  European  European  Union  PIGS  democracy  liberal  economic  reform  Indignados  Indignants  Social  Media  lehmanbrothers  Lehman  Brothers  Yanis  Varoufakis  neoliberal  neoliberalism  deregulation  regulators  regulation  self-regulation  game  theory  No  Representation  1%  Establishment  Super  Rich  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  Privileged  Pact  carmenreinhart  KennethRogoff  Carmen  Reinhart  Kenneth  Rogoff  greatrecession  lost  decade  lost  generation  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  interest  groups  inequality  Gini  coefficient  economic  damage  trickle-down  economics  UK  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble 
february 2015 by asterisk2a
Wie Europa Schulden loswerden kann - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[Rogoff & Reinhart advocating financial repression] [...] [Because Austerity didn't work.] Tatsächlich habe die europäische Wirtschaftspolitik - die Haushaltsdefizite senkt und Strukturreformen für mehr Wachstum durchführt - recht wenig getan, um den Schuldenberg wirklich zu verringern. Die Politik könnte die Last für die nächsten Jahre sogar verschlimmert haben, sagen viele Volkswirte. Die Sparpolitik hat das Wachstum überraschend stark beeinträchtigt. Während die Hinweise darauf, dass die Strukturreformen tatsächlich die Wirtschaft beflügeln, eher überschaubar ausfallen. Stattdessen sinken Einkommen, Gewinne und Steuereinnahmen, was die Schuldenlast immer schwerer erträglich macht.
debt  servicing  sovereign  debt  crisis  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  Europe  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  liquidity-trap  QE  KennethRogoff  liberal  economic  reform  economic  history  MarioDraghi  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deflation  deflationary  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  youth  unemployment  austerity  IMF  Japan  UK  USA  budget  deficit  France  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  New  Normal  PIMCO  Mohamed  El-Erian  debt  jubilee  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  private  debt  public  debt  household  debt  carmenreinhart  WallStreet  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  communication  babyboomers  haircut  PIGS  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richardkoo 
january 2014 by asterisk2a
Five Years After Lehman, BIS Ex-Chief Economist Warns "It's Worse This Time" | Zero Hedge
The share of "leveraged loans" or extreme forms of credit risk, used by the poorest corporate borrowers, has soared to an all-time high of 45% - 10 percentage points higher than at the peak of the crisis in 2007. + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/record-high-grade-leverage-means-pik-toggle-lbo-debt-back-and-worse-ever // The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-23/bank-international-settlements-warns-monetary-kool-aid-party-over ""central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery... cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html
unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  ope  reflation  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  BOJ  LBO  balancesheet  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  2013  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  political  error  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  centralbanks  liberal  economic  reform  faultlines  GFC  monetary  theory  exuberance  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  stimulus  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  liquidity-trap  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  benbernanke  bank  crisis  Abenomics  rebalancing  China  greatrecession  policy  error  productivity  LTRO  NIRP  OMT  Fed  communication  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  leverage  KennethRogoff  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  BIS  POMO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Krisenländer: Barroso fordert eine Lockerung der Sparpolitik - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der britische Ökonom Simon Wren-Lewis hat vor einiger Zeit eine sehr hilfreiche Analyse veröffentlicht. Er vergleicht dabei die sogenannten strukturellen Primärüberschüsse. Das Wort "strukturell" meint hier, dass man den Konjunkturzyklus berücksichtigt. Das Wort "primär" bedeutet, dass man die Haushaltsbilanz vor der Zahlung von Zinsen betrachtet. Das tut man, weil man damit den Teil der Haushaltspolitik isoliert, auf den die Politik Einfluss hat. Der Euro-Raum insgesamt hat einen strukturellen Primärüberschuss von 2,2 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung, was angesichts der Rezession außerordentlich viel ist. Wren-Lewis errechnete dann, wie hoch eine optimale strukturelle Primärbilanz für den langfristigen Schuldenabbau momentan wäre. Das Ergebnis: ein Überschuss von nur 0,3 Prozent.
academics  Barroso  Europe  European  Commission  academia  Kenneth  Rogoff  Troika  carmenreinhart  political  folly  macroeconomics  policy  folly  Simon  Wren-Lewis  macroeconomic  policy  political  theory  economic  history  fiscal  policy  PIGS  UK  KennethRogoff  Schuldenbremse  error  austerity  Carmen  Reinhart  PIIGS  fiscal  theory  Germany  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Reinhart, Rogoff... and Herndon: The student who caught out the profs
http://www.peri.umass.edu/236/hash/31e2ff374b6377b2ddec04deaa6388b1/publication/566/ "not every economy is same, times are always different." >> Reply by Rogoff & Reinhart: 'We were only arguing association, not causality.' [...] Discovering a spreadsheet error was never going to end the debate over austerity - and nor should it, according to Megan McArdle, special correspondent for Newsweek and The Daily Beast. >> http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/panne-mit-excel-tabelle-rogoff-und-reinhart-haben-sich-verrechnet-a-894893.html "Olivier Blanchard (IMF) gestand ein die negativen Effekte der Sparpolitik auf das Wachstum unterschätzt wurden." >> Updated paper from Rogoff & Reinhart http://www.nber.org/papers/w18015 >> http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/16/holy-coding-error-batman/ http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/16/unemployment-reinhart-rogoff-arithmetic-cause
academics  complexity  sociology  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  academia  science  liquidity-trap  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  political  folly  bank  crisis  macroeconomics  lostdecade  policy  folly  macroeconomic  policy  debtoverhang  lostgeneration  economic  history  philosophy  fiscal  policy  social  science  confidence  KennethRogoff  error  trustagent  paulkrugman  austerity  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  IWF  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Carmen Reinhart: "No Doubt. Our Pensions Are Screwed." | Zero Hedge
Only when inflation picks up, which is ultimately going to happen, will it become obvious that central banks have become subservient to governments." [...] Nations "seldom just grow themselves out of debt," as so many believe is possible, "you need a combination of austerity, so that you don't add further to the pile of debt, and higher inflation, which is effectively a subtle form of taxation," with the consequence that people are going to lose their savings. Reinhart succinctly summarizes, "no doubt, our pensions are screwed." [...] http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/interview-with-harvard-economist-carmen-reinhart-on-financial-repression-a-893213.html / http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/how-central-banks-are-threatening-the-savings-of-normal-germans-a-860021.html
monetization  unemployment  monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  modern  monetary  theory  transferring-wealth  reflation  academia  zombie  banks  New  Normal  BOE  carmenreinhart  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  deposit  levy  creditcrisis  QE  2013  moralhazard  debt  monetisation  debt  bubble  creditcrunch  bail-in  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  inflation  centralbanks  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debt  jubilee  haircut  unintended  consequences  Troika  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  debt  restructuring  bank  crisis  Abenomics  greatrecession  debtoverhang  Fed  economic  history  financial  repression  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  bailout 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
The President's 'Biggest Mistake' on Obamanomics - YouTube
Obama failed to communicate well the severity and extent of the situation [as they themself failed to grasp it] - failed to take on the advice of > book rogoff and reinhart, as well as > book richard koo

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/30/sunday-review/obamanomics-a-counterhistory.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

The Federal Reserve and many private-sector economists were also too optimistic, Obama aides note. And they argue that the Senate would not have passed a much larger stimulus in 2009, given Republican opposition, regardless of the White House’s wishes.

But from these reasonable points, the Obama team then jumps to a larger and more dubious conclusion: that their failure to grasp the severity of the slump has had no real consequences. Even if they had seen the slow recovery coming, they say, they couldn’t have done much about it. When Mr. Obama has been asked about his biggest mistake, he talks about messaging, not policy.
stephenroach  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  Fed  fiscal  policy  economic  history  Politics  communication  USA  Richardkoo  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  carmenreinhart  KennethRogoff  GFC  greatrecession  presidency  barackobama 
october 2012 by asterisk2a
Stephen Roach Mops Floor With Keynesianism And Former Fed Governor Larry Meyer | ZeroHedge
ex Fed member Larry Meyer:
'we do models, to do forecasts ... otherwise we don't know'

Roach replies: your models don't work, and thus your forecasts - because they use empirical (the past) data.

Your models are not based on science, what you (the Fed) is doing is working with assumptions.

-

Fed models / assumptions do not account deleveraging, debt overhang, outcome of financial crisis etc etc. disrupting and distorting the entire monetary system - which they build.

Because this is a different kind of gargantuan crisis than ever before.

One can only think about it that the system is broken (monetary system) - it may take 10-20 years to fully recover. Now one as to admit to that, that it is broken beyond patch work repair (QE, ZIRP and Co). And start think a new, and consider a debt jubilee. Basically a cold reset for the monetary system.
keynes  miltonfriedman  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  jubilee  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  creditcrunch  deleveraging  debtoverhang  NPL  zombie  banks  Japan  UK  USA  lostdecade  greatdepression  GFC  greatrecession  benbernanke  paulkrugman  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  economic  history  economic-thought  economic  model  Fed  richardkoo  stephenroach 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
We're (USA) Not Japan But One Can Always Hope | ZeroHedge
3 Years on ...

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- In today's "Single Best Chart," Bloomberg's Mike McKee displays how the current U.S. recovery is the slowest since the 1970's and even lags Japan at the same point of their recovery in 1993.

__Measured in Real GDP per capita :

USA post crisis (property and credit bubble + financial crisis followed by credit crunch, deleveraging, debt overhang and non-performing loans [balance sheet recession]) recovery is worse than the recovery of Japan from 1993 (property and equity bubble followed by credit crunch, deleveraging, debt overhang and non-performing loans [balance sheet recession]).

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/single-best-chart-worst-u-s-recovery-since-1970-s-UVkghBlRT8ydic0ovJ_iVA.html

-

And Tim Geithner once said "the USA is not Japan".
paulkrugman  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  financialcrisis  property  bubble  creditcrunch  NPL  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  deleveraging  richardkoo  economic-thought  economic  model  Europe  GFC  greatrecession  economic  history  timgeithner  lostdecade  double-dip  UK  USA  Japan 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Reinharts And Rogoff On Why The Debt Overhang Matters | ZeroHedge
Consequences of Debt/GDP over 90% and held it there for at least five years. The stunning reality of their empirical work is four-fold: 1) the median duration of these overhang periods in 23 years (that's a lot of can-kicking); 2) real GDP growth averages 1.2% lower than trend during these overhangs; 3) real GDP drops by on average around 25% at the end of the deleveraging episode; and 4) most critically, "waiting for markets to signal a problem may be waiting too long because governments have the ability to suppress market signals."

All coming down to “financial repression”. Financial repression includes directed lending by captive domestic audiences, explicit or implicit caps on interest rates, regulation of cross-border capital movements, high reserve and capital requirements, and moral suasion applied to regulated entities.
KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  debtoverhang 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Lunch with the FT: Kenneth Rogoff - FT.com
The financial crisis has made many of Rogoff and Reinhart’s observations a central part of the debate about sovereign debt. Their finding that recoveries from debt-driven recessions are slower than recoveries from business cycle recessions is regularly cited. The two authors are also associated with the idea that when a state’s debts exceed 90 per cent of gross domestic product, they will reduce the economic potential of the country.

I suggest that the US is still comfortably short of this level – but am swiftly corrected. If you count federal and state debts and, crucially, add in unfunded debts in the social security system, then Rogoff thinks that Americ
economic  history  economics  debtoverhang  carmenreinhart  KennethRogoff 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Interactive Visual History Of Financial Crises Since 1810 - Note Where The Fed Arrives | ZeroHedge
https://www.historyshots.com/FinancialCrisis/index.cfm

"The giant wave in the top section of the graphic depicts the percentage of world GDP by region in crisis during the 200 year period. It includes the four major financial crisis types (sovereign default, banking, currency, and inflation) along with stock market crashes. The bottom section provides a detailed chart of all sovereign defaults by country, region and year. It shows the repeating nature of sovereign default, a central theme of Reinhart and Rogoff's book."

This graphic is based on the New York Times and Wall Street Journal best seller This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff. Using data developed by Reinhart and Rogoff, it maps the cyclical history of financial crisis from 1810 to 2010 for sixty-six countries representing 90% of world GDP.
book  KennethRogoff  economic-thought  economic  history  carmenreinhart  infographics  financialcrisis  history 
february 2012 by asterisk2a

related tags

1%  2.0  Abenomics  academia  academic  academics  ageing  AIIB  Alexis  allocation  Angela  apathy  asset  austerity  avoidance  babyboomers  baddebt  bail-in  bailout  balance  balancesheet  bank  banking  banks  barackobama  Barroso  behavioral  Ben  benbernanke  Bernanke  big  BIS  Blair  Blyth  BOE  BOJ  bond  book  BRIC  Brothers  BuBa  bubble  bubbles  budget  business  Buy  Cameron  capitalism  car  card  Career  Carmen  carmenreinhart  Carney  centralbanks  China  ChristineLagarde  class  coefficient  Commission  communication  complexity  confidence  conglomerate  consent  consequences  Conservative  consumer  consumerism  consumerist  contract  corporate  corporations  credit  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  creditor  crisis  crony  Cycle  damage  David  debt  debtoverhang  decade  deficit  deflation  deflationary  deleveraging  democracy  demographic  deposit  Depression  deregulation  Dijsselbloem  distortion  distrust  documentary  Dodd-Frank  dogma  double-dip  downward  ECB  economic  economic-thought  economics  economist  economists  economy  EFSF  El-Erian  ELA  emerging  employment  EMU  equity  error  Establishment  Eurobond  Eurogroup  Eurokriese  Europe  European  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  evasion  expectation  exuberance  fairness  far-right  faultlines  Fed  finance  financial  financialcrisis  fiscal  fixedincome  folly  for  fractional  France  FrancoisHollande  Funding  G7  game  gap  GDP  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  George  Germany  Gesellschaft  GFC  Gini  global  globalisation  globalization  governance  Great  greatdepression  greatrecession  Greece  Greenspan-Put  Grexit  GroKo  groups  growth  haircut  Help  Henry  henrypaulson  history  household  housing  hunt  ideology  imbalance  IMF  Impediments  income  Indignados  Indignants  industrial  inequality  inflation  infographics  insolvency  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  interest  irrational  IWF  jail  Japan  Jean-Claude  Jens  Jeroen  John  Joseph  jubilee  Juncker  Kenneth  kennethlewis  KennethRogoff  keynes  Koo  Krugman  LBO  Leadership  Lehman  lehmanbrothers  Lending  leverage  levy  liberal  liquidity  liquidity-trap  loan  lobby  Lobbying  lobbyist  lost  lostdecade  lostgeneration  LTRO  Lügenpresse  macroeconomic  macroeconomics  macroprudential  manufactured  margin  MarioDraghi  Mark  market  maximisation  Maynard  mechanism  media  Merkel  microeconomic  middle  miltonfriedman  mistake  mobility  model  Moderation  modern  Mohamed  monetary  monetisation  monetization  moralhazard  mortgage  negative  neoliberal  neoliberalism  net  New  NIRP  No  nominal  non-performing  Normal  NPL  occupywallstreet  OECD  of  oligopol  oligopoly  OMT  ope  Osborne  output  overhang  Pact  Partei  Party  Paul  paulkrugman  perception  Peter  philosophy  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  Piketty  PIMCO  Podemos  policy  political  Politicians  Politics  POMO  population  populism  presidency  private  Privatisation  Privileged  productivity  profit  propaganda  property  Protest  public  QE  rate  real  rebalancing  recession  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  recovery  referendum  reflate  reflation  reform  regulation  regulators  Reinhart  Representation  repression  Republic  Republik  reserve  restructuring  retirement  Revolution  Rich  Richard  richardkoo  risk  Rogoff  safety  Scheme  Schuldenbremse  Schäuble  science  secular  self-regulation  sentiment  servicing  servitude  shared  shareholder  sheet  short-term  Simon  social  society  sociology  sovereign  sovereignty  speculative  stagflation  stagnation  state  stephenroach  Stiglitz  stimulus  Street  structural  student  Super  sustainability  sustainable  symptom  Syriza  system  systemic  systemicrisk  Taper  targeting  tax  TBTF  technocrat  theory  thinking  Thomas  timgeithner  to  too  toobigtofail  trading  transferring-wealth  transferunion  transmission  trap  Treaty  trickle-down  Troika  trust  trustagent  Tsipras  turnout  UK  UKIP  Umschuldung  uncertainty  unconventional  unemployment  unintended  Union  unknown  unkown  USA  value  Varoufakis  Versailles  view  voter  wage  Wall  WallStreet  Weidmann  Weimar  Weimarer  welfare  western  Wolfgang  world  Wren-Lewis  Yanis  yield  youth  ZIRP  zombie 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: