asterisk2a + capital-flight   19

China: Is it in the Midst of a Hard Landing? - YouTube
Gordon Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," discusses the outlook for China's economy with Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Alix Steel on "What'd You Miss?" // 1trn in reserves to support yuan, will need to liquidate its serserves - bond and fx // currently there is no backstop // mal-investment // time has run out since their Put post-2009 to retool economy and social safety net and health care // will be bad pull on western world, deflation, // "1930's style crash" // they have no tool left, no backstop. //
book  China  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  PBOC  liquidity  trap  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  2015  capital-flight  Yuan  RMB  economic  growth  contagion  global  economy  bond  bubble  property  bubble  hubris  irrational  exuberance  panic  BRIC  Developing  World  western  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Tough outlook for emerging markets - BBC News
[ this was no demand led recovery, it was a central bank debt fuelled reflated recovery (as was dot.com), especially in equity markets. but not fundamentals. unintended consequences of ZIRP/NIRP and QE. flushing world financial markets with liquidity, but not the real world. real world problems still exist. ] A series of emerging market currencies are losing value and stock markets across the developing world are in retreat. The more excitable parts of the financial sector - and indeed on financial twitter (yes, there is such a thing) - are talking of a re-run of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. [...] Emerging market currencies have lost value against the dollar and currently stand at a six-and-a-half-year low in aggregate. The Financial Times today reports that almost $1tn of capital has flowed out of emerging economies in the last 13 months. [ now money hoping for Taper re-allocate some out of emerging and developing world ]
China  2015  emerging  market  developed  world  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  recovery  Developing  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  ZIRP  hot-money  QE  NIRP  BIS  centralbanks  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  Taper  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  capital-flight  globalisation  globalization  global  trade  OPEC  energy  price  Oil  price  technological  progress 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek banks face full nationalisation - BBC News
post-referendum, post-humiliating bailout terms of more and deeper austerity and additionally - privatisation. // [ but nobody admits that they (Greece) lost all fiscal & national sovereignty by and through the show of negotiations of the 3rd bailout. ] // &! The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has confirmed that Greece has cleared overdue debt repayments of €2.05bn (£1.4bn) and is no longer in arrears. - bbc.in/1Os3G5G // &! youtu.be/fJB4neizgUM - we expect a recession of 3-4% for 2015 and 2016. // &! youtu.be/MpFtDwp8lVo - Greek Cash Crunch Goes to Market // &! On The Streets Of The Greek Financial Crisis - youtu.be/nDfOFzAKB-w >> powerless, no future, no options but to suffer on the demands of creditors.
zombie  banks  Bank  of  Greece  Greece  ECB  capital-controls  capital-flight  ELA  MarioDraghi  greatdepression  Great  Depression  2015  creditor  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  sovereign  economic  history  European  European  Union 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek debt: ECB 'to maintain funding limit' - BBC News
bbc.in/1TXD5Bj - Greek debt crisis: ECB not raising funding limit. The decision not to raise the cap on aid to Greece increases the likelihood of bank closures and restrictions on cash withdrawals, analysts say. That in turn could eventually result in Greece leaving the euro. The ECB said that it stood ready to review the decision and would work closely with the Bank of Greece. The current ceiling for the ECB's emergency funding - Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) - is €89bn (£63bn). It is not clear if all that money has been disbursed. [...] &! bbc.in/1ICV0EA [...] Greece banks to stay closed on Monday, Piraeus Bank chief says, after emergency meeting in Athens // &! 'Bank Holiday' aka Corralito - bit.ly/1GKcBdu // &! Rumor: Greece Stock market will likely not open too. // &! bit.ly/1edehoc >> ECB not raising ELA in this situation is forcing Syriza/Gov to close down banks, stock market and enforce capital controls. ECB, the silent enforcer.
ECB  ELA  Grexit  Bank  of  Greece  run  bankrun  Corralito  holiday  economic  history  capital-controls  capital-flight  capital  controls  European  Union  IMF  Troika  MarioDraghi  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Jens  Weidmann  BuBa 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
ECB 'to end Greek bank lifeline' - BBC News
bloom.bg/1yMeCBS reut.rs/1Kin1FN bit.ly/1QWRUoF - Emergency Liquidity Facility (ELA) // ECB is expected to end emergency lending to Greece's banks on Sunday [...] have to "announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending introduction of capital controls". [B]ailout for heavily indebted Greece expires on Tuesday & talks have broken down. [...] "Grexit" from the euro is not inevitable, as the eurozone did resolve Cyprus's banking crisis in 2013 & the country stayed in the euro. [...] [Biggest part is EFSF debt. EU gov money (FR&GER biggest contributors) // Jens Weidmann - on.wsj.com/1KmPprP would have cut it earlier. Current tally €89 billion. // &! econ.st/1Kiugz1 - ECB could bully/force Greece/Syriza to accept any deal given or it will cut of ELA. It did so with Cyprus & Ireland. FT called it 'the quiet enforcer.' // In the End, IMF & EFSF paid off (mostly EU) bank loans for Greece. Not to fill Greece's budget deficit. = Backdoor National Bank Bailout!!! &! bbc.in/1ICV0EA
ECB  ELA  Grexit  2015  bank  run  bankrun  Troika  IMF  capital-flight  capital-controls  capital  controls  Cyprus  of  Cyprus  of  Greece  deposit  haircut  haircut  sovereign  debt  crisis  Great  Depression  austerity  fiscal  sovereignty  Syriza  democracy  Career  Politicians  European  Union  No  Representation  Angela  Merkel  MarioDraghi  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Germany  Leadership  Jens  Weidmann  zombie  banks  banking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  stresstest  EFSF  bank  bailout  GFC  PIGS  IMG  ChristineLagarde  PR  public  relations  spin  doctor  media  conglomerate  manufactured  consent  banking  crisis  economic  history  fairness  public  perception  public  awareness  public  discourse  policy  folly  policy  error  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  capitalism  Failure  recovery  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  deflationary 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Next: Capital Controls | Zero Hedge
That is precisely the Pandora's box that Europe has now opened, and which it is scrambling to close. How? With the dreaded "contingency plans", among which are such last ditch efforts as capital controls, including "imposing limits on daily withdrawals from bank accounts; capping the amount of money that can be electronically taken out of the country and making these transactions slower to clear; and introducing border checks to cap the amount of cash leaving in the country," most recently utilized in the banana-est of republics such as Argentina. + LEVY ON DEPOSITS "This is an unprecedented assault on individual property rights and every individual in the developed world should take notice, and far from stabilising the eurozone, the bail-out likely heightens contagion risk across the EU." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-oh-irony
capital-controls  contagion  ESM  trust  economic  history  Europe  confidence  unintended  consequences  trustagent  PIIGS  Cyprus  politcal  folly  bankrun  capital-flight  policy  folly  IMF  bailout 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Chart Of The Day: For Spain, The Real Pain May Be Just Beginning | ZeroHedge
Spain's banks deposit outflow (retail and corporate) scary.
ECB is the only backstop for banks.
2012  capital-flight  ECB  confidence  trust  Spain 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
When will the euro collapse? It’s already dead - Matthew Lynn's London Eye - MarketWatch
Meanwhile, money flees to safe havens.

London real estate agents report that the phones are ringing non-stop with wealthy euro-zone property buyers looking for somewhere to park their cash — and houses in the British capital look a safe bet. Swiss bankers are flush with cash exiting Italy and Germany. Everybody with any significant wealth wants at least part of it outside the euro zone because they are worried the currency might one day implode.

[...]

This is more than just a semantic point. It is also important for investors to grasp.

When a currency stops working the damage done to the economy is immediate. Trade stops flowing. Investment gets postponed. Capital flees. Very quickly, unemployment starts to rise, and output declines.

That is precisely what is happening in the euro zone right now.

This part of the crisis — when the monetary system ceases to function in any meaningful way — may well be the worst point.
austerity  Politics  greatrecession  policy  folly  policy  error  Monetary  System  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  capital-flight  Euro  PIIGS 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Is The Swiss National Bank Faking It? | ZeroHedge
if one needs to know the true state of events in Europe, the only real remaining, unmanipulated benchmark remain Swiss nominal bond yields. And at -23.5 bps for the 2 Year it is telling us that nothing is fixed. As usual.

***

The SNB sterilised one half of its FX intervention in May.

"This is highly significant and undermines the credibility of the SNB’s claim that it is willing to do whatever it takes to hold EUR/CHF 1.20. For the floor to be credible the SNB needs to surrender control over the Swiss monetary based, i.e. it has to be willing to deliver both unlimited and unsterilised FX intervention. The intervention in May was certainly unlimited; it most definitely was not unsterilised."

SNB's FX policy is "at odds with the needs of an economy which is growing at 2% p.a, which has no output gap and in which the housing market is overheating and credit growth is becoming problematic."
monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  inflation  property  bubble  credit  bubble  bubble  BIS  centralbanks  currency-war  capital-flight  capital-controls  foreignexchange  CHF  Switzerland  SNB  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  EMU  Europe 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Lethal Embrace? A Thought Experiment | Institute for New Economic Thinking
sovereign debt crisis and the bank crisis, conjoined twins

The problem Europe now faces is that monetary union, a fait accompli, left in place the historical symbiosis between national banking systems and national sovereignties, as well as the pattern of thinking formed by generations of experience with that symbiosis. As a consequence, when the crisis hit, national banking systems stepped in to help their national sovereigns, and national sovereigns stepped in to help their national banking systems.

Both thought they were doing the right thing, based on past experience. But the consequence has been to transform isolated sovereign debt crises into systemic bank crises, and to transform isolated national bank crises into systemic sovereign debt crises.

The deposit and fund outflow out of the periphery is migrating to core Europe. And because of the political backlash over giving up sovereignty, ... a banking union might be the next best.
banking  union  capital-flight  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  angelamerkel  Angela  ESM  EFSF  economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  ECB  greatrecession  GFC  2012  banking  Europe  EMU  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Greece before the election: Wait and flee | The Economist
2nd election June 17 on Sunday ...

In the meantime, uncertainty over the election result has frozen the economy. Many people have simply stopped paying their bills, hoarding cash as they wait to see what unfolds. “I have plenty of customers with enough deposits to meet their bills who choose not to pay,” says one banker, before admitting that he is holding off on his kids’ private-school fees just in case.

Deposits are still being withdrawn from bank accounts, though not at the same dramatic pace as occurred immediately after the May election (depositors are said to have withdrawn €700m—$877m—the following day). “I’m going to take €1,000 to €2,000 out before the election so that I can get through two weeks of chaos,” says one Athenian businessman.
PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  bank  crisis  bankrun  banking  NPL  capital-flight  greatrecession  2012  Grexit  Greece 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Europe’s banks: Slouching towards a banking union | The Economist
Media got wind of the banking problem in Spain via Bankia headlines and its troubles, and thus Spain's troubles, media also covered the capital flight/deposit exodus from PIIGS.

"Almost €100 billion, about one-tenth of GDP, was pulled out of the country’s banks and bond markets in the first quarter."

Yet, Europes (EMUs) banking problem gets much bigger as Europe as a whole is at stall speed and the periphery in yet another year of depression.

"Yet as quickly as banks are filling their existing capital holes, new ones seem to be appearing. Analysts at Nomura note that non-performing loans are rising in several European countries, including Italy and Germany. They reckon that a severe recession in Europe could cost the region’s 90 biggest banks €420 billion in losses and consume about a third of their capital, with big shortfalls in Britain, France and Germany in addition to those already emerging in Spain (see chart)."

Spains 100bnE bailout (into FROB, Spains TARP) is just 1of many.
NPL  confidence  FROB  ESM  EFSF  capital-flight  ECB  EMU  bankia  2012  bailout  greatrecession  banking  PIIGS  Spain 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Southern Europeans wire cash to safer north | Reuters
Modern Bank Run is the Wire Transfer

---

Financial advisers and private bankers whose clients have accounts too large to be covered by a Europe-wide guarantee on deposits up to 100,000 euros, are reporting a "bank run by wire transfer" that has picked up during May.

Much of this money has headed north to banks in London, Frankfurt and Geneva, financial advisers say.

"It's been an ongoing process but it certainly picked up pace a couple of weeks ago We believe there is a continuous 2-3 year bank run by wire transfer," said Lorne Baring, managing director at B Capital, a Geneva-based pan European wealth management firm.
2012  capital-flight  PIIGS  Greece  bankrun 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Kapitalflucht: Südeuropäer verschieben Geld über die Alpen - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Finanzminister Evangelos Venizelos sagte am Freitag, seit 2009 seien 65 Milliarden Euro von griechischen Konten abgezogen worden. Rund 16 Milliarden Euro davon seien ins Ausland gebracht worden. Mehr als ein Drittel ging nach Großbritannien, rund zehn Prozent landeten in der Schweiz.
2012  capital-flight  Greece 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: The ECB's tricky route to stabilisation | The Economist
the ECB's actions have had a dramatic impact on sovereign yields at all durations. On the other hand, it has not been successful at reversing a reduction in lending that threatens the real euro-zone economy.

As the piece explains, the ECB's is a useful strategy, but one which has in some ways increased the risk to the single currency of a renewed loss of confidence in sovereign solvency. An unsatisfactory outcome to the Greek debt negotiations could help trigger such a reversal, as could the recession generated by the present credit crunch. For all its success, the ECB hasn't shepherded the euro zone out of trouble entirely, and it may yet find itself needing to buy large quantities of government bonds.
capital-flight  PIIGS  moneymarkets  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  creditcrunch  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Fed  BOE  quantitative-easing  LTRO  ECB 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Drohende Kreditklemme: Europa geht das Geld aus - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
existential crisis of the "system"

die ganze Finanzbranche ist in Aufruhr. Es sei in Zukunft nicht mehr selbstverständlich, dass ein Staat seinen Haushalt über die Kapitalmärkte finanzieren könne, warnte am Montag der Präsident der Bankenverbandes, Andreas Schmitz.
Wer wissen will, was damit gemeint ist, sollte sich die verzweifelten Versuche einiger Euro-Staaten anschauen, an frisches Geld zu kommen.

Je länger die Doppelkrise bei Staaten und Banken anhält, desto mehr wird sie zur existentiellen Gefahr für die Währungsunion. Denn beide sind aufeinander angewiesen: Die Staaten brauchen flüssige Banken als Abnehmer für ihr Anleihen - und die Banken brauchen solide Staaten als Garanten für die Wertpapiere in ihren Bilanzen. Beides funktioniert derzeit nicht.
creditcrunch  2011  2012  Europe  PIIGS  capital-flight  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  uncertainty  confidence  financialmarkets 
november 2011 by asterisk2a

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